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Auction strategies (1 Viewer)

I disagree with budgeting for positions. You might find you're in a league where RBs go for much more than expected and you want to go heavy in the other positions. If you're in a deep league your team is going to end up being soft in some aspect no matter what - so if you budget per position you might lose out on some value picks.

 
I disagree with budgeting for positions. You might find you're in a league where RBs go for much more than expected and you want to go heavy in the other positions. If you're in a deep league your team is going to end up being soft in some aspect no matter what - so if you budget per position you might lose out on some value picks.
Budgets aren't hard and fast. They can change. But if you walk into a draft with no idea about what you want to spend on people, you'll either blow your cash fast or end up with $50 left over.

 
butcher boy said:
You can quickly get behind. I don't even recommend using the draft dominator.
lol

I've been enjoying multiple brews during fantasy auctions for many years now.

Here's to you, Draft Dominator! For helping me keep up!

 
butcher boy said:
You can quickly get behind. I don't even recommend using the draft dominator.
lol

I've been enjoying multiple brews during fantasy auctions for many years now.

Here's to you, Draft Dominator! For helping me keep up!
:goodposting: :banned:

Draft Dominator is awesome for auctions. Great way to snag players and call out the excel nerds when their forumals are messed up so they have to throw players back into the pool. Always fun to get drunk and kick ### with DD.

 
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This post is not meant to get feedback on my auction draft, but just to give an example of what can happen:

I made a mistake in last night's draft. I used 3/4 of my budget early in the draft and missed out on a lot of quality players in the middle of the draft. The running back market was set high early (Peterson $68, Foster $64, Spiller $54, Martin $59). I picked up Lynch $57 and Charles $55. My next pick was J. Graham for $37. So after three picks, I only had $51 for 12 more picks. I like those guys, but it did hurt the rest of my team and I have no depth at RB. My WR's are DeSean Jackson $3, Tavon Austin $3, Anquan Boldin $3, Greg Jennings $2, and Stevie Johnson $2. My QB's are R. Wilson $19 and T. Romo $3. Back up RBs are Vereen $1 and the BJGE $1.

I missed out on all of the mid level WRs and RBs. I will have to get lucky that some of my WR's can step up and that I don't have any injuries at RB.

 
This post is not meant to get feedback on my auction draft, but just to give an example of what can happen:

I made a mistake in last night's draft. I used 3/4 of my budget early in the draft and missed out on a lot of quality players in the middle of the draft. The running back market was set high early (Peterson $68, Foster $64, Spiller $54, Martin $59). I picked up Lynch $57 and Charles $55. My next pick was J. Graham for $37. So after three picks, I only had $51 for 12 more picks. I like those guys, but it did hurt the rest of my team and I have no depth at RB. My WR's are DeSean Jackson $3, Tavon Austin $3, Anquan Boldin $3, Greg Jennings $2, and Stevie Johnson $2. My QB's are R. Wilson $19 and T. Romo $3. Back up RBs are Vereen $1 and the BJGE $1.

I missed out on all of the mid level WRs and RBs. I will have to get lucky that some of my WR's can step up and that I don't have any injuries at RB.
That is not a bad draft at all. 75% of your cap on three guys is a bit extreme, and I probably would've stopped getting studs after the two RBs, but you got great value for 2 good QBs, especially Romo for $3. That's laughable. BJGE for $1 is great, and so is your WR value.

 
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This post is not meant to get feedback on my auction draft, but just to give an example of what can happen:

I made a mistake in last night's draft. I used 3/4 of my budget early in the draft and missed out on a lot of quality players in the middle of the draft. The running back market was set high early (Peterson $68, Foster $64, Spiller $54, Martin $59). I picked up Lynch $57 and Charles $55. My next pick was J. Graham for $37. So after three picks, I only had $51 for 12 more picks. I like those guys, but it did hurt the rest of my team and I have no depth at RB. My WR's are DeSean Jackson $3, Tavon Austin $3, Anquan Boldin $3, Greg Jennings $2, and Stevie Johnson $2. My QB's are R. Wilson $19 and T. Romo $3. Back up RBs are Vereen $1 and the BJGE $1.

I missed out on all of the mid level WRs and RBs. I will have to get lucky that some of my WR's can step up and that I don't have any injuries at RB.
Vereen for $1? Wow. Is it a non-PPR league or something? If it's PPR and you can start him as a flex, you may be golden.

 
$3 on Romo would have been fine for your starter. A $19 wr would look great. I think RWilson was the time to chill on the big spending. I also don't think it's a guaranteed loser. Good luck.

 
New to the boards here and this year will be my first auction - so thanks to everyone for all of the good good advice / interesting debate.

The first thing I did after finally convincing my league to do an auction draft this year was to start participating in a bunch of mocks.

Here are a few mistakes/misconceptions I noticed myself making that might help the OP (all of my mocks were for 12 team leagues - so a decent size bidding pool):

1. I need to be careful with price enforcing. Getting stuck with a player I don't truly want hurts more than letting a player go for a few bucks less than I think he should. I'm much more careful pushing this issue after getting stuck with players I didn't really want.

2. If there's a popular player I want that would really change how I spend my budget - I like to nominate that player early rather than waiting. Some might say this is a mistake because I'd be "tipping my hand" and I should throw someone out to let the others spend their money. I still favor knowing where I stand on this type of player as soon as possible. The keys are popular and budget changer.

Here's an example - say I really want Jimmy Graham for $40 at TE, or I'll just grab a 1$ guy. That's 20% of my budget that's either going into TE or elsewhere. If someone else plans to spend $45-50 on Graham - I want to know that as early as possible - so I can allocate my $40 to other players while the most talent is still available.

(The third observation is most dependent on league size, starting roster requirements, and how aligned a league tends to be with average auction values.)

3. I really overestimated my ability to manipulate the auction. I had visions of just throwing out every player I didn't want, watching the others overspend, and then scooping up tons of discounted talent as my penniless leaguemates could only watch.

Besides general hubris/douchebaggery, the main issue was I had no concept of just how far the total bid pool stretches in a 12 team league considering typical starting rosters. The discounts on players I expected to see as a result of overspending (bid pool drain) did occur, but they appeared much later than I first expected. (Obviously, if you have a league where everyone spends like drunks, results will vary)

Consider the following:

12 team league with 15 roster spots

Starting bid pool: $2400 / therefore, bidding against: $2200

Total key starters in the league each week of: 12QBs, 24RBs, 36WRs, and 12TEs (each team also has a K, D/ST, 6 BN)

The average auction values of the key starter positions totals: $1,805* (*I pulled the AAVs from Yahoo a couple of weeks ago)

Your opponents have $2200 to spend.

11 owners could spend 10% over the aav on every key starter in their lineup - for $1,985 - and still spend $2.44 on each remaining roster spot.

11 owners could spend 15% over aav on every starter - for $2075.75 - and still spend $1.41 on each remaining roster spot.

Overspending by 20% and 30% on every key starter would mean the owners couldn't fill out the remaining rosters - but they're not that far over: $2166 and $2346.50 respectively.

So, even with overspending, the bid pool can stretch a lot further than you first might expect.

Initially, I misunderstood "waiting for value" as "wait for the others to go broke" -- but with 11 other owners, their money lasts longer than the top talent does. Some might make themselves go broke, but if you wait to get involved too long - you'll be the richest guy ruling over a completely depleted talent pool.

Now I think of "waiting for value" as "save some money for the values at the end of the draft." I don't want to be one of those teams that only has a 1$ left for a bunch of players -- but I definitely don't want to be one of those teams left with money after the draft.

 
"Waiting for Value" in my experience means being that guy at the auction who shakes his head in sarcastic disapproval when everyone bids like crazy on early studs then ends up in last place after starting Shonn Greene and Rashard Mendenhall all year.

 
"Waiting for Value" in my experience means being that guy at the auction who shakes his head in sarcastic disapproval when everyone bids like crazy on early studs then ends up in last place after starting Shonn Greene and Rashard Mendenhall all year.
that pretty much sums up what happened to me in one of the mocks. Feeling like I was in the driver's seat waiting for value to fall, only to discover that everyone had completely stripped the car around me a piece at a time.

 
brohan a tall hobbit is just a dude so that should be your name just a dude and hey just a dude i agree that stinks but you can still cobble peaces of a car together from the waiver wire if you are a savy shark and then when you win the title you can say you did it like johnny cash the man in black one peace at a time take that to the bank brohans

 
Before the draft, I like to make predictions of the auction prices for my league and treat them as a menu. I pick out the best team that I can (assuming that the projected prices are the exact costs). Then I pick out a few more teams following different approaches or assumptions (e.g., studs & duds, lots of mid-level guys, lots of $ on RBs, very little $ on RBs, I take a top TE, I can't draft any of my favorite underrated QB, etc.). Often I don't bother picking out the exact team; instead it's things like "and I'll take 2 of these 5 WRs for $8-10 each."

That way 1) I get a sense of which strategies produce the teams that I like the best, so that I have a plan A going into the draft, and 2) I get a feel for how to build a team in various different ways, so that I can be flexible and change plans depending on how the draft goes.

During the draft, the main goals are 1) get good value (try not to overpay), 2) build a roster that fits together (e.g., filling starting spots with start-able players), 3) spend all my money, and 4) spend most of my money on starters (unless it's best ball, in which case everyone is a starter).

 
"Waiting for Value" in my experience means being that guy at the auction who shakes his head in sarcastic disapproval when everyone bids like crazy on early studs then ends up in last place after starting Shonn Greene and Rashard Mendenhall all year.
that pretty much sums up what happened to me in one of the mocks. Feeling like I was in the driver's seat waiting for value to fall, only to discover that everyone had completely stripped the car around me a piece at a time.
It is always amusing when people do this and end up with a lot of their budget unfilled.

 
"Waiting for Value" in my experience means being that guy at the auction who shakes his head in sarcastic disapproval when everyone bids like crazy on early studs then ends up in last place after starting Shonn Greene and Rashard Mendenhall all year.
that pretty much sums up what happened to me in one of the mocks. Feeling like I was in the driver's seat waiting for value to fall, only to discover that everyone had completely stripped the car around me a piece at a time.
It is always amusing when people do this and end up with a lot of their budget unfilled.
What's even better is when there's two guys who end up in this situation and then they have so much money left over they get into a bidding war over a guy like Ben Tate.

I've been there and believe, THAT is the point where you know you've had a bad draft.

 
So I've been geeking out a over my upcoming auction and have been trying to come up with a framework to help avoid some common pitfalls (like missing out on studs in the early going).

Not fully fleshed out yet - but I've come up with a concept I'm calling MVR* (Minimum Viable Roster).

The idea is that before the draft, based on your rankings and league settings you come up with what you think is the minimum roster you'd need to be competitive. For example, it could be "I need 3 players from my top 30 to hit my MVR".

The idea is that you adjust values upwards for those top 30 players until you hit your MVR - then you adjust back down and go after value. The idea is that you don't let the cupboard go dry on those elite players, but you can still have enough $$ leftover to go after your value picks in the mid-late rounds.

One drawback I see is that if you end up with only 2 of these guys and 29 are taken, how do you avoid going crazy on the 30th guy? But I also expect a savvy drafter will be able to avoid this problem because you're tracking a small subset of the draft pool heavily.

Thoughts? Comments?

*note: I haven't really trademarked this

 
New to the boards here and this year will be my first auction - so thanks to everyone for all of the good good advice / interesting debate.

The first thing I did after finally convincing my league to do an auction draft this year was to start participating in a bunch of mocks.

Here are a few mistakes/misconceptions I noticed myself making that might help the OP (all of my mocks were for 12 team leagues - so a decent size bidding pool):

1. I need to be careful with price enforcing. Getting stuck with a player I don't truly want hurts more than letting a player go for a few bucks less than I think he should. I'm much more careful pushing this issue after getting stuck with players I didn't really want.

2. If there's a popular player I want that would really change how I spend my budget - I like to nominate that player early rather than waiting. Some might say this is a mistake because I'd be "tipping my hand" and I should throw someone out to let the others spend their money. I still favor knowing where I stand on this type of player as soon as possible. The keys are popular and budget changer.

Here's an example - say I really want Jimmy Graham for $40 at TE, or I'll just grab a 1$ guy. That's 20% of my budget that's either going into TE or elsewhere. If someone else plans to spend $45-50 on Graham - I want to know that as early as possible - so I can allocate my $40 to other players while the most talent is still available.

(The third observation is most dependent on league size, starting roster requirements, and how aligned a league tends to be with average auction values.)

3. I really overestimated my ability to manipulate the auction. I had visions of just throwing out every player I didn't want, watching the others overspend, and then scooping up tons of discounted talent as my penniless leaguemates could only watch.

Besides general hubris/douchebaggery, the main issue was I had no concept of just how far the total bid pool stretches in a 12 team league considering typical starting rosters. The discounts on players I expected to see as a result of overspending (bid pool drain) did occur, but they appeared much later than I first expected. (Obviously, if you have a league where everyone spends like drunks, results will vary)

Consider the following:

12 team league with 15 roster spots

Starting bid pool: $2400 / therefore, bidding against: $2200

Total key starters in the league each week of: 12QBs, 24RBs, 36WRs, and 12TEs (each team also has a K, D/ST, 6 BN)

The average auction values of the key starter positions totals: $1,805* (*I pulled the AAVs from Yahoo a couple of weeks ago)

Your opponents have $2200 to spend.

11 owners could spend 10% over the aav on every key starter in their lineup - for $1,985 - and still spend $2.44 on each remaining roster spot.

11 owners could spend 15% over aav on every starter - for $2075.75 - and still spend $1.41 on each remaining roster spot.

Overspending by 20% and 30% on every key starter would mean the owners couldn't fill out the remaining rosters - but they're not that far over: $2166 and $2346.50 respectively.

So, even with overspending, the bid pool can stretch a lot further than you first might expect.

Initially, I misunderstood "waiting for value" as "wait for the others to go broke" -- but with 11 other owners, their money lasts longer than the top talent does. Some might make themselves go broke, but if you wait to get involved too long - you'll be the richest guy ruling over a completely depleted talent pool.

Now I think of "waiting for value" as "save some money for the values at the end of the draft." I don't want to be one of those teams that only has a 1$ left for a bunch of players -- but I definitely don't want to be one of those teams left with money after the draft.
If that was your first auction, I'd say you came away with some asute observations. Nice job. :yes:

 
I like to stay pretty even with all the other teams in the first half of the draft. Meaning if most teams are are picking up an early running back for 1/4+ of their stack, I will do the same. Same for the WR position. If you don't, you will end up with a lot of extra cash and no where to spend it....and the top 15 rbs and wrs will be gone.

Around the mid point of the draft, I like to have a little more cash left over than the other people in the draft. Not a lot more, just a little bit. For example, if the average stack is left with $50 out of $200 dollars left, I like to be sitting around $60. As the average total goes down, so will mine, but trying to maintain a slight money lead. This is where I start filling in at QB and TE....especially this year. There is a lot of value to be had at this point, and if you managed your money well, you will get a well rounded team.

My goal at the end is to have $2 or $3 dollars to spend on each pick when everyone else stuck at the minimum bid because they are tapped out. This usually is only my last 5 picks or less.

So much of this is dependent on who you are drafting with. If you are playing with a hoarder, this isn't going to work as well. Pick your spots and laugh at them when they are snagging up all backups/long shots/sleepers at the end, but don't have a lot of studs to go with them.

 
FWIW - I've done about a dozen mocks on ESPN (all leagues assume non-PPR) and some trends have emerged to me.

If you go big with your first player (like an AP, Martin, or Calvin type pick) and end up spending somewhere around $60, then you can still go in the $30's for your 2nd pick as long as you go no more than $25 for your third

AND you wait on your QB1

AND you spend less than $5 on your QB2.

There are just so many mid-level WRs that you can pick from and good QBs that come cheap - Romo, Luck @$10ish and Rivers, E. Mannning, Big Ben @<$5 that you can still end up with depth at WR and decency at QB following this path.

In order to do this though, you have to resist overspending on Rodgers, Brees, and possibly Manning.

 
FWIW - I've done about a dozen mocks on ESPN (all leagues assume non-PPR) and some trends have emerged to me.

If you go big with your first player (like an AP, Martin, or Calvin type pick) and end up spending somewhere around $60, then you can still go in the $30's for your 2nd pick as long as you go no more than $25 for your third

AND you wait on your QB1

AND you spend less than $5 on your QB2.

There are just so many mid-level WRs that you can pick from and good QBs that come cheap - Romo, Luck @$10ish and Rivers, E. Mannning, Big Ben @<$5 that you can still end up with depth at WR and decency at QB following this path.

In order to do this though, you have to resist overspending on Rodgers, Brees, and possibly Manning.
I did an ESPN mock and wasn't thrilled with the way it worked. Someone left $70+ on the table, which skewed things significantly. Plus I don't have any mock options that really fit the format that I play very well 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1Flex, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF .5ppr

I'm with you on QBs though. I'm planning on budgeting > $20~ for my QB1 - which I'm hoping gets me Romo at worst. Don't get me wrong - if Rodgers or Brees come at decent value I will pounce, but based on the history of my league I don't expect it to happen.

 
I like to come up with a general strategy for the auction, not tied to specific players but to desired outcomes. For example, I want to leave the auction with one RB, one WR, and one QB who I expect to start every week. An every-week RB starter could cost as little as $20 or as much as $50 (of $100), and I'm willing to go on either end of that scale if I think I'm getting value. If it's $50 (Tomlinson-era) it'll look like $50 RB, $15 WR, $10 QB. If it's $20, it might look like $20 RB, $20 WR, $20 QB.

The real value risk is ending up with too many mediocre "value" players. Having five $10 RBs that you got for $8 each is not nearly as good from a fantasy perspective as having two $20 RBs that you got at par value. Value gets pretty marginal if it's sitting on your bench.

And remember that you have to worry not only about budget remaining, but roster spots remaining. In most leagues you have to fill a valid roster, so you can get roster-locked before you get cash-locked.

 
Regarding nominating players early:

To me, the goal is to get people to overspend while they have a lot of money to play with. I think Tavon Austin is a good candidate. There's a good chance at least 2 members of the league are in love. Let them go on a bidding war.

 
Wanted to bump this thread again, just to get a few ideas from more experienced auctioneers. Got my first auction in three years on Saturday, and I've scoured the boards for auction threads, only to be somewhat disappointed at this years strategies.

 
I looked at one $ league's past drafts, 12 teams. I have no idea if I can pull it off but this year I think (in 0.5 PPR league) I am going to try to go for all of Charles (or Martin), Forte (or TRich) and Spiller (or TRich) (or McCoy), all for roughly 70% of my salary cap. All of these guys seems to generally go 10-20% lower than Foster and Peterson. Seems outlandish, but I am going to bid early and hard if I get the chance and hopefully get a super-RB team, which should be fun (and hopefully effective). I'd like to try this as a blitzkrieg effect before anyone sees what I'm doing. I think if you bid early it allows others to think that they have options remaining on the table. I agree that there tends to be a feeding frenzy towards the end of the RB run where people overpay for what they don't want and at the end of the draft where people pay too much anyway as they drain their caps - so don't bid there, bid at the beginning of the RB run and avoid getting desperate at the end (keep a slim reserve and focus on sleepers). At least get the studs you want at the price you want and just go for it. Now whether going this RB heavy is a good idea, I don't know (but it has worked in the past for me).

Looking at ESPN's cheatsheet ($200 cap, 10 teams at 16 players per roster)...

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/2013preseasonFFLranks250/top-300-position

...it looks to me like I could do this for $142 getting Charles, Spiller and Forte, which is just about at 70%, which gives me some comfort. I really wonder where Spiller and Martin are going to fall this year in drafts everywhere, if they will rise as high as people are expecting. This could be a very exciting year for RB's, looking forward to it. With all the talk about "scarfing up" RB's, this year in auctions you could really do it I think.

I would hope or expect that auction values per player would be even lower in a 12 team league (more players drafted, make sense?). Does anyone have a site with better or more reliable auction values? I have not checked out FBGs yet, but maybe that is the answer. Ie not entirely trusting espn, but at any rate this allows one to get started (as others have suggested, building your own tiers, own values compared vs past and expected (ADP/AV) etc.).

 
Anyone try nominating handcuffs before the starting rb goes? Thinking of trying it this year. Might get people to overinvest in studs if they already have the handcuff.
Sounds like a good way to get yourself to overinvest in studs. I'd let you win the backups for cheap knowing that you'll overspend what you just saved when the stud does come up for auction.

Because you'll be choosing between winning a stud whose backup you already have or passing on him to try and win some other stud whose backup you won't have room for on your roster.

So which one will make more sense to you when the clock is running?

BTW, I don't think you should ever call out a player you want unless you think no one will call him out. Every player that gets won before your guy comes up for auction has drained your opponents from some of their ability to raise his price. With your pick, you have the guaranteed ability to make someone spend more money before your guy could possibly hit the block. Why would you not take that opportunity?

Guys may figure out you don't want the guy you just nominated, but they won't be able to do much about it because if you open the bidding at the minimum, it will be difficult to stick you with him at that minimum bid. You can usually count on someone else wanting that player and they'll be tempted to grab him for $1 more than the minimum you bid.

 
I looked at one $ league's past drafts, 12 teams. I have no idea if I can pull it off but this year I think (in 0.5 PPR league) I am going to try to go for all of Charles (or Martin), Forte (or TRich) and Spiller (or TRich) (or McCoy), all for roughly 70% of my salary cap. All of these guys seems to generally go 10-20% lower than Foster and Peterson. Seems outlandish, but I am going to bid early and hard if I get the chance and hopefully get a super-RB team, which should be fun (and hopefully effective). I'd like to try this as a blitzkrieg effect before anyone sees what I'm doing. I think if you bid early it allows others to think that they have options remaining on the table. I agree that there tends to be a feeding frenzy towards the end of the RB run where people overpay for what they don't want and at the end of the draft where people pay too much anyway as they drain their caps - so don't bid there, bid at the beginning of the RB run and avoid getting desperate at the end (keep a slim reserve and focus on sleepers). At least get the studs you want at the price you want and just go for it. Now whether going this RB heavy is a good idea, I don't know (but it has worked in the past for me).

Looking at ESPN's cheatsheet ($200 cap, 10 teams at 16 players per roster)...

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/2013preseasonFFLranks250/top-300-position

...it looks to me like I could do this for $142 getting Charles, Spiller and Forte, which is just about at 70%, which gives me some comfort. I really wonder where Spiller and Martin are going to fall this year in drafts everywhere, if they will rise as high as people are expecting. This could be a very exciting year for RB's, looking forward to it. With all the talk about "scarfing up" RB's, this year in auctions you could really do it I think.

I would hope or expect that auction values per player would be even lower in a 12 team league (more players drafted, make sense?). Does anyone have a site with better or more reliable auction values? I have not checked out FBGs yet, but maybe that is the answer. Ie not entirely trusting espn, but at any rate this allows one to get started (as others have suggested, building your own tiers, own values compared vs past and expected (ADP/AV) etc.).
.

Actually, the average price per player will stay the same. You've increased the number of players taken, but you've also increased the total amount of money that the league bids. If you have an individual budget of $200 with a roster of 16 players, the price per player is always going to be $12.50 ($200/16) no matter how many teams you add.

But that doesn't mean the prices of all players stay the same (just the average does). 32 extra bottom players will be drafted, the talent pool has stayed the same otherwise i.e. the number of top players hasn't changed, and you're now going against $400 extra dollars at the start of the auction.

Take your example to a bigger extreme. Do you think AP would cost more in an 8 team league (where you only have to outbid 7 owners) or in a 16 team league? In one league the top 16 RBs would start, in the other league the top 32 RBs start. The bigger the league, the more pressure you have on the talent pool, and the higher the demand.

Sorry, if I'm not understanding what you meant - but it would be easy to think that more players meant lower prices by forgetting to consider the new owners come armed with cash. (personally, I have a bad habit of discounting the other owners' cash in auctions)

The 12 team league has 20% more dollars to spend than the 10 team league, so you shouldn't be surprised to see the prices of popular players rise by 20%. Demand (2 additional owners) has gone up while the supply (top talent pool - in your hypothetical stud RBs) has stayed the same.

Just like in a snake draft league - adding two more owners will make acquiring stud players tougher, not easier. But if the other owners don't make the proper adjustments to their bidding you'll have a big advangage.

 
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BTW, I don't think you should ever call out a player you want unless you think no one will call him out. Every player that gets won before your guy comes up for auction has drained your opponents from some of their ability to raise his price. With your pick, you have the guaranteed ability to make someone spend more money before your guy could possibly hit the block. Why would you not take that opportunity?

Guys may figure out you don't want the guy you just nominated, but they won't be able to do much about it because if you open the bidding at the minimum, it will be difficult to stick you with him at that minimum bid. You can usually count on someone else wanting that player and they'll be tempted to grab him for $1 more than the minimum you bid.
I understand your rationale - but I think never throwing out a player you want is a bit extreme. it depends on the player.

Throwing out a player I don't want successfully gets other owners to spend their money. Agreed. But nominating a player I do want, provides me with some very important information earlier - namely, am I going to get the player which should affect how I'm bidding on other players. I think that fact gets underestimated a lot.

Say I want to spend on 1 elite WR, and I want it to be Calvin Johnson. Unless the other owners in my league are extremely challenged - there's no way I'm going to be able to manipulate the auction so they have to let me have him for a good price. There's simply too much money out there. If I know I'm willing to spend 55$ on Calvin Johnson and not a 1$ more -- is it more useful to have that information before or after my #2 rated WR comes up for auction?

If I nominate a guy I don't like - I successfully get someone to spend on 1 player which is an insignificant percentage of the overall bid pool. If the next player nominated is my #2 ranked WR and he's going for a decent price - I don't know what to do because I don't know what Calvin will go for. Sometimes throwing out a player you don't want is simply overthinking things IMO.

The strategy of getting others to burn their cash, definitely has it's uses --- but there are certain players you can't really manipulate the price on. If you want one of those players, I think it makes sense to find out whether or not you're going to get him early -- so then you can use the money while there's still a lot of talent available if you miss.

After I get the guy I want - then I'll be throwing out tons of players at that position.

 
BTW, I don't think you should ever call out a player you want unless you think no one will call him out. Every player that gets won before your guy comes up for auction has drained your opponents from some of their ability to raise his price. With your pick, you have the guaranteed ability to make someone spend more money before your guy could possibly hit the block. Why would you not take that opportunity?

Guys may figure out you don't want the guy you just nominated, but they won't be able to do much about it because if you open the bidding at the minimum, it will be difficult to stick you with him at that minimum bid. You can usually count on someone else wanting that player and they'll be tempted to grab him for $1 more than the minimum you bid.
I understand your rationale - but I think never throwing out a player you want is a bit extreme. it depends on the player.

Throwing out a player I don't want successfully gets other owners to spend their money. Agreed. But nominating a player I do want, provides me with some very important information earlier - namely, am I going to get the player which should affect how I'm bidding on other players. I think that fact gets underestimated a lot.

Say I want to spend on 1 elite WR, and I want it to be Calvin Johnson. Unless the other owners in my league are extremely challenged - there's no way I'm going to be able to manipulate the auction so they have to let me have him for a good price. There's simply too much money out there. If I know I'm willing to spend 55$ on Calvin Johnson and not a 1$ more -- is it more useful to have that information before or after my #2 rated WR comes up for auction?

If I nominate a guy I don't like - I successfully get someone to spend on 1 player which is an insignificant percentage of the overall bid pool. If the next player nominated is my #2 ranked WR and he's going for a decent price - I don't know what to do because I don't know what Calvin will go for. Sometimes throwing out a player you don't want is simply overthinking things IMO.

The strategy of getting others to burn their cash, definitely has it's uses --- but there are certain players you can't really manipulate the price on. If you want one of those players, I think it makes sense to find out whether or not you're going to get him early -- so then you can use the money while there's still a lot of talent available if you miss.

After I get the guy I want - then I'll be throwing out tons of players at that position.
It's really irrelevant whether people have spent money on players. What's relevant is whether they've overspent on them. If you don't want Peterson, and you throw him out, and someone buys him for $20 when he should cost $40, that effectively puts more money on the table for the next auction; a $40 player is off the board, and the total cash pool has only gone down by $20. So trying to manipulate people's cash stash only works if they're willing to overpay.

 
BTW, I don't think you should ever call out a player you want unless you think no one will call him out. Every player that gets won before your guy comes up for auction has drained your opponents from some of their ability to raise his price. With your pick, you have the guaranteed ability to make someone spend more money before your guy could possibly hit the block. Why would you not take that opportunity?

Guys may figure out you don't want the guy you just nominated, but they won't be able to do much about it because if you open the bidding at the minimum, it will be difficult to stick you with him at that minimum bid. You can usually count on someone else wanting that player and they'll be tempted to grab him for $1 more than the minimum you bid.
I understand your rationale - but I think never throwing out a player you want is a bit extreme. it depends on the player.

Throwing out a player I don't want successfully gets other owners to spend their money. Agreed. But nominating a player I do want, provides me with some very important information earlier - namely, am I going to get the player which should affect how I'm bidding on other players. I think that fact gets underestimated a lot.

Say I want to spend on 1 elite WR, and I want it to be Calvin Johnson. Unless the other owners in my league are extremely challenged - there's no way I'm going to be able to manipulate the auction so they have to let me have him for a good price. There's simply too much money out there. If I know I'm willing to spend 55$ on Calvin Johnson and not a 1$ more -- is it more useful to have that information before or after my #2 rated WR comes up for auction?

If I nominate a guy I don't like - I successfully get someone to spend on 1 player which is an insignificant percentage of the overall bid pool. If the next player nominated is my #2 ranked WR and he's going for a decent price - I don't know what to do because I don't know what Calvin will go for. Sometimes throwing out a player you don't want is simply overthinking things IMO.

The strategy of getting others to burn their cash, definitely has it's uses --- but there are certain players you can't really manipulate the price on. If you want one of those players, I think it makes sense to find out whether or not you're going to get him early -- so then you can use the money while there's still a lot of talent available if you miss.

After I get the guy I want - then I'll be throwing out tons of players at that position.
It's really irrelevant whether people have spent money on players. What's relevant is whether they've overspent on them. If you don't want Peterson, and you throw him out, and someone buys him for $20 when he should cost $40, that effectively puts more money on the table for the next auction; a $40 player is off the board, and the total cash pool has only gone down by $20. So trying to manipulate people's cash stash only works if they're willing to overpay.
Right - but with any player, it only takes 2 people to be in love to drive up the cost in an auction. For a 12 player team, it's more likely than not that the price goes higher in the early rounds when folks have money to burn.

 
I looked at one $ league's past drafts, 12 teams. I have no idea if I can pull it off but this year I think (in 0.5 PPR league) I am going to try to go for all of Charles (or Martin), Forte (or TRich) and Spiller (or TRich) (or McCoy), all for roughly 70% of my salary cap. All of these guys seems to generally go 10-20% lower than Foster and Peterson. Seems outlandish, but I am going to bid early and hard if I get the chance and hopefully get a super-RB team, which should be fun (and hopefully effective). I'd like to try this as a blitzkrieg effect before anyone sees what I'm doing. I think if you bid early it allows others to think that they have options remaining on the table. I agree that there tends to be a feeding frenzy towards the end of the RB run where people overpay for what they don't want and at the end of the draft where people pay too much anyway as they drain their caps - so don't bid there, bid at the beginning of the RB run and avoid getting desperate at the end (keep a slim reserve and focus on sleepers). At least get the studs you want at the price you want and just go for it. Now whether going this RB heavy is a good idea, I don't know (but it has worked in the past for me).

Looking at ESPN's cheatsheet ($200 cap, 10 teams at 16 players per roster)...

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/2013preseasonFFLranks250/top-300-position

...it looks to me like I could do this for $142 getting Charles, Spiller and Forte, which is just about at 70%, which gives me some comfort. I really wonder where Spiller and Martin are going to fall this year in drafts everywhere, if they will rise as high as people are expecting. This could be a very exciting year for RB's, looking forward to it. With all the talk about "scarfing up" RB's, this year in auctions you could really do it I think.

I would hope or expect that auction values per player would be even lower in a 12 team league (more players drafted, make sense?). Does anyone have a site with better or more reliable auction values? I have not checked out FBGs yet, but maybe that is the answer. Ie not entirely trusting espn, but at any rate this allows one to get started (as others have suggested, building your own tiers, own values compared vs past and expected (ADP/AV) etc.).
.

Actually, the average price per player will stay the same. You've increased the number of players taken, but you've also increased the total amount of money that the league bids. If you have an individual budget of $200 with a roster of 16 players, the price per player is always going to be $12.50 ($200/16) no matter how many teams you add.

But that doesn't mean the prices of all players stay the same (just the average does). 32 extra bottom players will be drafted, the talent pool has stayed the same otherwise i.e. the number of top players hasn't changed, and you're now going against $400 extra dollars at the start of the auction.

Take your example to a bigger extreme. Do you think AP would cost more in an 8 team league (where you only have to outbid 7 owners) or in a 16 team league? In one league the top 16 RBs would start, in the other league the top 32 RBs start. The bigger the league, the more pressure you have on the talent pool, and the higher the demand.

Sorry, if I'm not understanding what you meant - but it would be easy to think that more players meant lower prices by forgetting to consider the new owners come armed with cash. (personally, I have a bad habit of discounting the other owners' cash in auctions)

The 12 team league has 20% more dollars to spend than the 10 team league, so you shouldn't be surprised to see the prices of popular players rise by 20%. Demand (2 additional owners) has gone up while the supply (top talent pool - in your hypothetical stud RBs) has stayed the same.

Just like in a snake draft league - adding two more owners will make acquiring stud players tougher, not easier. But if the other owners don't make the proper adjustments to their bidding you'll have a big advangage.
:goodposting:

Most pre-draft rankings are based on 10 teamers - so adjust up. Good players should be inflated, and many more $1 players will be scooped at the end.

 
You can quickly get behind. I don't even recommend using the draft dominator.
lol

I've been enjoying multiple brews during fantasy auctions for many years now.

Here's to you, Draft Dominator! For helping me keep up!
:goodposting: :banned:

Draft Dominator is awesome for auctions. Great way to snag players and call out the excel nerds when their forumals are messed up so they have to throw players back into the pool. Always fun to get drunk and kick ### with DD.
I've been finding that Draft Dominator waaaaaaay overvalues bench players (with a commensurate undervaluing of studs) in, well, all auction leagues I've been in. I much prefer my Excel Nerd spreadsheet. I calculate price enforcer values along with my max $ value on every player, and automatically adjust all prices with each player that closes.

 
I looked at one $ league's past drafts, 12 teams. I have no idea if I can pull it off but this year I think (in 0.5 PPR league) I am going to try to go for all of Charles (or Martin), Forte (or TRich) and Spiller (or TRich) (or McCoy), all for roughly 70% of my salary cap. All of these guys seems to generally go 10-20% lower than Foster and Peterson. Seems outlandish, but I am going to bid early and hard if I get the chance and hopefully get a super-RB team, which should be fun (and hopefully effective). I'd like to try this as a blitzkrieg effect before anyone sees what I'm doing. I think if you bid early it allows others to think that they have options remaining on the table. I agree that there tends to be a feeding frenzy towards the end of the RB run where people overpay for what they don't want and at the end of the draft where people pay too much anyway as they drain their caps - so don't bid there, bid at the beginning of the RB run and avoid getting desperate at the end (keep a slim reserve and focus on sleepers). At least get the studs you want at the price you want and just go for it. Now whether going this RB heavy is a good idea, I don't know (but it has worked in the past for me).

Looking at ESPN's cheatsheet ($200 cap, 10 teams at 16 players per roster)...

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/2013preseasonFFLranks250/top-300-position

...it looks to me like I could do this for $142 getting Charles, Spiller and Forte, which is just about at 70%, which gives me some comfort. I really wonder where Spiller and Martin are going to fall this year in drafts everywhere, if they will rise as high as people are expecting. This could be a very exciting year for RB's, looking forward to it. With all the talk about "scarfing up" RB's, this year in auctions you could really do it I think.

I would hope or expect that auction values per player would be even lower in a 12 team league (more players drafted, make sense?). Does anyone have a site with better or more reliable auction values? I have not checked out FBGs yet, but maybe that is the answer. Ie not entirely trusting espn, but at any rate this allows one to get started (as others have suggested, building your own tiers, own values compared vs past and expected (ADP/AV) etc.).
Stud prices should be greater the more teams that are involved. The baseline for your VBD calcs go lower and lower, and the extra bidding cash should drive up costs.

 
Anyone try nominating handcuffs before the starting rb goes? Thinking of trying it this year. Might get people to overinvest in studs if they already have the handcuff.
I have a strict philosophy of never chasing handcuffs (outside of dynasty). Winning in fantasy football requires chasing variance, which means chasing upside, not protecting your floor. I doubt many people win their leagues because they had a handcuff when their stud RB went down. I think you're much more likely to win when you grab other teams' handcuffs instead of your own.

 
You can quickly get behind. I don't even recommend using the draft dominator.
lol

I've been enjoying multiple brews during fantasy auctions for many years now.

Here's to you, Draft Dominator! For helping me keep up!
:goodposting: :banned:

Draft Dominator is awesome for auctions. Great way to snag players and call out the excel nerds when their forumals are messed up so they have to throw players back into the pool. Always fun to get drunk and kick ### with DD.
I've been finding that Draft Dominator waaaaaaay overvalues bench players (with a commensurate undervaluing of studs) in, well, all auction leagues I've been in. I much prefer my Excel Nerd spreadsheet. I calculate price enforcer values along with my max $ value on every player, and automatically adjust all prices with each player that closes.
I've been wondering about the draft dominant;s auction values as well, I know they use Tremblay's auction value method, but it seems to really value the mid range(round 2-5) type of players quite highly in typical 12 team ppr leagues. Makes me iffy about using it, even when I plugged in my own projections and fiddled around with the baselines. Has it been successful for you guys in the past?(meaning were you guys happy with your auctions?)

 
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You can quickly get behind. I don't even recommend using the draft dominator.
lol

I've been enjoying multiple brews during fantasy auctions for many years now.

Here's to you, Draft Dominator! For helping me keep up!
:goodposting: :banned:

Draft Dominator is awesome for auctions. Great way to snag players and call out the excel nerds when their forumals are messed up so they have to throw players back into the pool. Always fun to get drunk and kick ### with DD.
I've been finding that Draft Dominator waaaaaaay overvalues bench players (with a commensurate undervaluing of studs) in, well, all auction leagues I've been in. I much prefer my Excel Nerd spreadsheet. I calculate price enforcer values along with my max $ value on every player, and automatically adjust all prices with each player that closes.
The default DD auction values are wonky. There are a million ways to tweak them to your liking, but the default values are probably correct for almost no one.

 
CalBear said:
LususV said:
You can quickly get behind. I don't even recommend using the draft dominator.
lol

I've been enjoying multiple brews during fantasy auctions for many years now.

Here's to you, Draft Dominator! For helping me keep up!
:goodposting: :banned:

Draft Dominator is awesome for auctions. Great way to snag players and call out the excel nerds when their forumals are messed up so they have to throw players back into the pool. Always fun to get drunk and kick ### with DD.
I've been finding that Draft Dominator waaaaaaay overvalues bench players (with a commensurate undervaluing of studs) in, well, all auction leagues I've been in. I much prefer my Excel Nerd spreadsheet. I calculate price enforcer values along with my max $ value on every player, and automatically adjust all prices with each player that closes.
The default DD auction values are wonky. There are a million ways to tweak them to your liking, but the default values are probably correct for almost no one.
I think this is precisely why it would be so difficult to ever go back to a snake draft. There is no cheatsheet that is really accurate. No computer program to tell you what to do. An auction feels like a living, breathing organic process where you have to react to what is going on and make adjustments on the fly to any plans you may have had going in.

 
LususV said:
You can quickly get behind. I don't even recommend using the draft dominator.
lol

I've been enjoying multiple brews during fantasy auctions for many years now.

Here's to you, Draft Dominator! For helping me keep up!
:goodposting: :banned:

Draft Dominator is awesome for auctions. Great way to snag players and call out the excel nerds when their forumals are messed up so they have to throw players back into the pool. Always fun to get drunk and kick ### with DD.
I've been finding that Draft Dominator waaaaaaay overvalues bench players (with a commensurate undervaluing of studs) in, well, all auction leagues I've been in. I much prefer my Excel Nerd spreadsheet. I calculate price enforcer values along with my max $ value on every player, and automatically adjust all prices with each player that closes.
Max value seems self explanatory - but what are price enforcer values - amounts you'll always bid a player up to? How do you calculate that number?

Seems like a useful tool to have.

 
1) While it's considered a girly move, nominating a kicker / defense early is a good strategy. You get a top defense / kicker right away or someone else wastes a dollar.

2) Has anyone had success with nominating players far out of order? I'm not allocating a lot of budget to QB this season, so I'm thinking about putting up a non-Top QB (e.g., Romo, Wilson) with my first nomination. I feel like most owners in my league will be apprehensive because they don't want to overbid without seeing the prices of higher-ranked QBs, so I can potentially get someone on the cheap. Also, if I wait to be the last team drafting a starting QB, I think I will get a couple teams price-enforcing on that last starting QB which will drive the price up on me, or force me to take the 13th-14th QB off the board instead (in a 12-team league). On the flipside, doing this would require me to nominate someone I want, and tipping my hand could drive price up. Just curious to hear any war stories using this strategy.

 
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A decade of auctions behind me have revealed a basic but effective strategy for me year in and out...

Pick your favorite SAFE RB and WR from rounds 1-3 of your typical snake draft. Get them. "Overbid" if you must. Prioritize safety over upside with these two. Then sit back and wait for value to emerge.

If you play your cards right, you'll end up with your two favorite early round talents and a bunch of guys from rounds 4-8 to fill out your roster. I've done this time and again, without fail, except when I've effed up by either:

1. Not bidding enough for my favorite safe studs; or

2. Getting greedy and bidding up for a 3rd stud. This can work, but it's much more tricky. You will have a roster full of $1 and $2 talent beyond your big three, which can be a toxic recipe if luck and extreme sleeper knowledge aren't in your corner.

 
Looking for advice on how to tweak the Draft Dominator auction baselines - the default ones still stick Rodgers at like $58 in a 6pt passing league (with yardage bonuses) but I don't know that I'd ever approach that plateau. Need advice on how to tweak it from someone with successful experience navigating DD for an auction draft. Thanks,

 
1) While it's considered a girly move, nominating a kicker / defense early is a good strategy. You get a top defense / kicker right away or someone else wastes a dollar.

2) Has anyone had success with nominating players far out of order? I'm not allocating a lot of budget to QB this season, so I'm thinking about putting up a non-Top QB (e.g., Romo, Wilson) with my first nomination. I feel like most owners in my league will be apprehensive because they don't want to overbid without seeing the prices of higher-ranked QBs, so I can potentially get someone on the cheap. Also, if I wait to be the last team drafting a starting QB, I think I will get a couple teams price-enforcing on that last starting QB which will drive the price up on me, or force me to take the 13th-14th QB off the board instead (in a 12-team league). On the flipside, doing this would require me to nominate someone I want, and tipping my hand could drive price up. Just curious to hear any war stories using this strategy.
I've seen 2 work, usually by mistake, but it works. I probably wouldn't nominate who I actually want but instead nominate someone I'd still be happy with. Price enforcing at the end usually ends up screwing the enforcer. The dropoffs are never that huge so if someone wants to spend another $10 to get Romo so I get Eli, so be it. But usually you can get a QB or pretty much any positions' 2nd tier at the AAV since most people will still want the tier 1 guys.

The more I think about this, I think it could be a relatively successful strategy.

 
For anyone who wants to the understand the basics of how to go from projections to an auction value, I give a walk through at the end of this article. Let me note, I'm just showing the method, not saying the baseline VBD player in the example is the right one to use. Rereading it right now, I'd have worded the baseline part a bit different, but if you know what VBD is already you'll get the gist.

 
1) While it's considered a girly move, nominating a kicker / defense early is a good strategy. You get a top defense / kicker right away or someone else wastes a dollar.

2) Has anyone had success with nominating players far out of order? I'm not allocating a lot of budget to QB this season, so I'm thinking about putting up a non-Top QB (e.g., Romo, Wilson) with my first nomination. I feel like most owners in my league will be apprehensive because they don't want to overbid without seeing the prices of higher-ranked QBs, so I can potentially get someone on the cheap. Also, if I wait to be the last team drafting a starting QB, I think I will get a couple teams price-enforcing on that last starting QB which will drive the price up on me, or force me to take the 13th-14th QB off the board instead (in a 12-team league). On the flipside, doing this would require me to nominate someone I want, and tipping my hand could drive price up. Just curious to hear any war stories using this strategy.
Yes, #2 works wonderfully. I wrote a bit about using it in the article mentioned in my previous post.

Thing is you have to remember that what you're doing is testing other owners conception (and uncertainty) in the prices. People are used to thinking about salaries top down... if Rodgers makes $X then they understand what Roethlisberger is worth.

So the results can vary widely. You might get a steal, or the player might get drastically overspent. Or he might go for exactly what you had as his value. It's definitely worth doing.

 

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