Avoiding RBBC in 2008 (1 Viewer)

[SharkPoollurkerFFAclown]

I know im missing alot here, I would like to get the 3 groups squared away with your help and then vote on where they fit in each group so we can get a 2008 top RB list. Also we can update it as needed. Lets go gurus.

Group 1:

(Basically lone starters, only spelled or replaced in short yardage, recieves about 5/6 of the carries)

Marshawn Lynch

Ronnie Brown

Willis Mcgahee

Jamal Lewis

Rudi Johnson

Willie Parker

Larry Johnson

Ladainian Tomilinson

Marion Barber

Brian Westbrook

Clinton Portis

Ryan Grant

Adrian Peterson

Edge

Steven Jackson

Frank Gore

Kevin Jones

Deangelo Williams

Justin Fargas

Group 2:

(Recieves most of the carries in a RBBC or is spelled too often to be a Group 1 RB)

Laurence Maroney

Joseph Addai

Jones-Drew

Selvin Young

Brandon Jacobs

Michael Turner

Reggie Bush

Lendale White

Ahmed Bradshaw

Cedric Benson

Chester Taylor

Shaun Alexander

Group 3:

(Likly recieves 1/3 or less of the carries)

Jerious Norwood

Sammy Morris

Kenton Keith

Fred Taylor

 

[Max Power]

I'm pretty sure Addai is top 10 pick again this season...

ETA: I just don't think RBBC is as bad as some here claim it to be.

 

[SharkPoollurkerFFAclown]

I'm pretty sure Addai is top 10 pick again this season...ETA: I just don't think RBBC is as bad as some here claim it to be.

Yeah, this gets confusing, my list is just rough, is there even a good enough coralation between carries and FF points to have this?

 

[Brutis]

I'm pretty sure Addai is top 10 pick again this season...ETA: I just don't think RBBC is as bad as some here claim it to be.

Yeah, this gets confusing, my list is just rough, is there even a good enough coralation between carries and FF points to have this?

Do you really think fargas will get all those carries? I dont think he has ever made it through a season without getting hurt. Even when he was the 3rd string rb. I would move both Ronnie brown and KJ coming off that ACL. Fargas and Rudi as well. Edge and Jamal just because i dont trust either of them.

 

[tjford]

I know im missing alot here, I would like to get the 3 groups squared away with your help and then vote on where they fit in each group so we can get a 2008 top RB list. Also we can update it as needed. Lets go gurus.Group 1: (Basically lone starters, only spelled or replaced in short yardage, recieves about 5/6 of the carries)Marshawn LynchRonnie BrownWillis McgaheeJamal LewisRudi JohnsonWillie ParkerLarry JohnsonLadainian TomilinsonMarion BarberBrian WestbrookClinton PortisRyan GrantAdrian PetersonEdgeSteven JacksonFrank GoreKevin JonesDeangelo WilliamsJustin FargasGroup 2:(Recieves most of the carries in a RBBC or is spelled too often to be a Group 1 RB)Laurence MaroneyJoseph AddaiJones-DrewSelvin YoungBrandon JacobsMichael TurnerReggie BushLendale WhiteAhmed BradshawCedric BensonChester TaylorShaun AlexanderGroup 3:(Likly recieves 1/3 or less of the carries)Jerious NorwoodSammy MorrisKenton KeithFred Taylor

No way that DeAngelo Williams, Rudi Johnson, Kevin Jones (guy probably won't be ready to go by Week 1) and Justin Fargas stay Group 1. I'd highly doubt that Marion Barber stays Group 1 also. Decent shot that the Steelers reduce Parker's workload as well.How is Adrian Peterson a Group 1 RB and yet Chester Taylor is Group 2; doesn't make sense. Those two likely split 60/40.Finally, I think the days of Shaun Alexander carrying even half the load in Seattle are over. A combination of Julius Jones, TJ Duckett and Maurice Morris probably carry the ball for Seattle. With all of the money being thrown at RBs by Seattle, it would surprise me if SA isn't cut soon.Many guys are also speculation. How do you know what the carry ratio will be in Atlanta?

 

[Wombat Killer]

Group 1: (Basically lone starters, only spelled or replaced in short yardage, recieves about 5/6 of the carries)

I think you will be hard pressed to find any RB that gets 5/6 (83%) of the carries.

 

[jevy]

Based off of 2007 RB #'s (so any qb carries or wr carriers are ignored)

%carries = rushes

%touches = rushes + receptions

Only 11 RB carried the ball > 2/3 of the time.

Only 9 RB touches the ball > 2/3 of the time.

%carries rank %touches	  rank88.52%	1	80.97%		1	Edgerrin James82.80%	2	78.64%		3	Frank Gore81.36%	3	75.96%		4	Thomas Jones78.31%	4	78.97%		2	Brian Westbrook75.31%	5	70.60%		7	Jamal Lewis75.00%	6	70.65%		6	Willis McGahee72.87%	7	70.06%		8	Clinton Portis71.59%	8	71.70%		5	LaDainian Tomlinson71.02%	9	67.85%		9	Willie Parker69.65%	10	64.50%		12	Marshawn Lynch69.41%	11	65.59%		11	LenDale White65.41%	12	66.08%		10	Joseph Addai64.41%	13	62.35%		13	Warrick Dunn62.70%	14	59.52%		14	Steven Jackson61.29%	15	58.79%		15	DeShaun Foster57.22%	16	55.08%		16	Earnest Graham55.87%	17	52.24%		19	Adrian Peterson54.97%	18	50.82%		21	Ryan Grant54.64%	19	53.14%		18	Kevin Jones53.91%	20	47.02%		23	Shaun Alexander53.00%	21	54.17%		17	Marion Barber52.43%	22	46.17%		24	Ron Dayne51.17%	23	45.44%		27	Cedric Benson50.11%	24	45.85%		25	Fred Taylor49.55%	25	45.62%		26	Justin Fargas49.07%	26	43.05%		30	Laurence Maroney47.34%	27	51.00%		20	Kenny Watson46.59%	28	47.62%		22	Reggie Bush46.19%	29	44.87%		29	Brandon Jacobs45.80%	30	45.08%		28	Larry Johnson45.50%	31	40.85%		35	Travis Henry45.21%	32	40.58%		36	Rudi Johnson43.34%	33	41.45%		32	Julius Jones39.22%	34	42.89%		31	Adrian Peterson38.21%	35	35.47%		40	Jesse Chatman38.15%	36	41.08%		33	Selvin Young37.53%	37	40.91%		34	Maurice Jones-Drew36.85%	38	37.80%		37	Chester Taylor36.46%	39	34.68%		41	Maurice Morris35.73%	40	36.44%		38	DeAngelo Williams35.52%	41	36.16%		39	Ronnie Brown33.83%	42	31.26%		44	Aaron Stecker

 

[Max Power]

Based off of 2007 RB #'s (so any qb carries or wr carriers are ignored)%carries = rushes%touches = rushes + receptionsOnly 11 RB carried the ball > 2/3 of the time.Only 9 RB touches the ball > 2/3 of the time.

%carries rank %touches	  rank88.52%	1	80.97%		1	Edgerrin James82.80%	2	78.64%		3	Frank Gore81.36%	3	75.96%		4	Thomas Jones78.31%	4	78.97%		2	Brian Westbrook75.31%	5	70.60%		7	Jamal Lewis75.00%	6	70.65%		6	Willis McGahee72.87%	7	70.06%		8	Clinton Portis71.59%	8	71.70%		5	LaDainian Tomlinson71.02%	9	67.85%		9	Willie Parker69.65%	10	64.50%		12	Marshawn Lynch69.41%	11	65.59%		11	LenDale White65.41%	12	66.08%		10	Joseph Addai64.41%	13	62.35%		13	Warrick Dunn62.70%	14	59.52%		14	Steven Jackson61.29%	15	58.79%		15	DeShaun Foster57.22%	16	55.08%		16	Earnest Graham55.87%	17	52.24%		19	Adrian Peterson54.97%	18	50.82%		21	Ryan Grant54.64%	19	53.14%		18	Kevin Jones53.91%	20	47.02%		23	Shaun Alexander53.00%	21	54.17%		17	Marion Barber52.43%	22	46.17%		24	Ron Dayne51.17%	23	45.44%		27	Cedric Benson50.11%	24	45.85%		25	Fred Taylor49.55%	25	45.62%		26	Justin Fargas49.07%	26	43.05%		30	Laurence Maroney47.34%	27	51.00%		20	Kenny Watson46.59%	28	47.62%		22	Reggie Bush46.19%	29	44.87%		29	Brandon Jacobs45.80%	30	45.08%		28	Larry Johnson45.50%	31	40.85%		35	Travis Henry45.21%	32	40.58%		36	Rudi Johnson43.34%	33	41.45%		32	Julius Jones39.22%	34	42.89%		31	Adrian Peterson38.21%	35	35.47%		40	Jesse Chatman38.15%	36	41.08%		33	Selvin Young37.53%	37	40.91%		34	Maurice Jones-Drew36.85%	38	37.80%		37	Chester Taylor36.46%	39	34.68%		41	Maurice Morris35.73%	40	36.44%		38	DeAngelo Williams35.52%	41	36.16%		39	Ronnie Brown33.83%	42	31.26%		44	Aaron Stecker

I don't think this list takes injuries into account

 

[jevy]

I don't think this list takes injuries into account

So how would you account for injuries in a list that looks at last year's stats?

 

[Max Power]

I don't think this list takes injuries into account

So how would you account for injuries in a list that looks at last year's stats?

% of Teams carries in game started/played. 80% is a solid number and we should all admit (while Healthy) guys like LJ, Tomlinson, Gore, Sjax are going to get that workload.

 

[jevy]

I don't think this list takes injuries into account

So how would you account for injuries in a list that looks at last year's stats?

% of Teams carries in game started/played. 80% is a solid number and we should all admit (while Healthy) guys like LJ, Tomlinson, Gore, Sjax are going to get that workload.

I'll let you do the calculations for that.BTW, Tomlinson played in 16 games last year

71.59%	8	71.70%		5	LaDainian Tomlinson

 

[brednbuddah]

I know im missing alot here, I would like to get the 3 groups squared away with your help and then vote on where they fit in each group so we can get a 2008 top RB list. Also we can update it as needed. Lets go gurus.

Group 1:

(Basically lone starters, only spelled or replaced in short yardage, recieves about 5/6 of the carries)

In terms of redraft going into 08, guys I see that slap me in the face...

Willie Parker - overvalued and will underperform avg draft slot due to oline

Larry Johnson - see above, probably even worse.

Group 2:

(Recieves most of the carries in a RBBC or is spelled too often to be a Group 1 RB)

Selvin Young - intriguing pick. will certainly outperform avg draft slot.

Reggie Bush - could be a nice value pick

Shaun Alexander - forget about it

interesting to not see Thomas Jones in any group considering the stats later in the thread pointing out TJ had over 80% of the carries while splitting time with Leon Washington and Cedric Houston. With the revamped oline (and if they don't take DMac) TJ has a legitimate shot to put up top 10 fantasy numbers. could be biased with that assessment, but the stars are lining up there.