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Betting Trends Discussion - (Was $$$$$$$) (1 Viewer)

nightmare said:
Yes, a mess. The top six teams in the AFC are close to equal. NFC, not so much.
The Pats schemes can only do so much.
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Equality doesn't usually mean hot mess. (So many of us didn't see your point originally)

But in the context you're using you have a strong point.

 
ZenoRazon said:
Stold this....

Betting Trends to Know

The Chiefs have now made the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season under Andy Reid. Only one other coach in Chiefs history has accomplished that feat: Marty Schottenheimer.

Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, the Chiefs are 4-16 straight-up and 3-17 against the spread in the playoffs, including******* 0-9 ATS at home*******

The Colts and Chiefs have faced off four times previous to this week in the playoffs, Indianapolis is *******4-0 SU and ATS,******** with two of those four losses for Kansas City coming at home in Arrowhead Stadium.

For the 14th time his career, Andrew Luck faces a team on the road that’s on extended rest (eight or more days): Luck is******** 9-4 (69.2%) ATS, making him the NFL’s most profitable quarterback in this spot since he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2012.*****************

Take that 0=9. 4--0 and 9-4 and that gives the Colts a nice 22-4 trend in this "spot".  I seriously doubt there will be a stronger play next weekend ATS.

The key to ATS wagering is finding "spots" where one side has a massive amount of numbers in their favor, yep, just like that above.

Now before the usual.....that stuff doesn't mean anything different team today and...............ah....how many years have the Lions, Browns been around, tons of players have come and gone, why no Superbowl appearance?  Historical trends very important in ATS wagering.
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the key is that Andy Reid always has an Andy Reid moment in these big games and this one will be no different. Funny that he's equal to Schottenheimer in 4 one-n-done playoff appearances. what you can bet your money on is that the Chiefs will be ultra tight, ultra conservative, and will look nothing like the team that hung with the Rams. This is where Reid comes out and pounds the rock 30+ times, plays ball control, taks the ball out of  Mahomes' hands having him throw for about 185 yards and no more.. 

Colts look like the Wildcard 2007 NY Giants to me.Road Warriors. Tough D. GREAT play calling. great O-line playing well at the right time.team hitting their stride just as playoffs begin.

Chiefs lost 3 of last 6 games, floundering down the stretch. They dont win home playoff games.

take the Colts +5 and run with it. parlay it with the UNDER ( 57) so now you're at Colts +10 and 67 UNDER.

this game has 17-14 written all over it.Colts move on

 
Tanner9919 said:
the key is that Andy Reid always has an Andy Reid moment in these big games and this one will be no different. Funny that he's equal to Schottenheimer in 4 one-n-done playoff appearances. what you can bet your money on is that the Chiefs will be ultra tight, ultra conservative, and will look nothing like the team that hung with the Rams. This is where Reid comes out and pounds the rock 30+ times, plays ball control, taks the ball out of  Mahomes' hands having him throw for about 185 yards and no more.. 

Colts look like the Wildcard 2007 NY Giants to me.Road Warriors. Tough D. GREAT play calling. great O-line playing well at the right time.team hitting their stride just as playoffs begin.

Chiefs lost 3 of last 6 games, floundering down the stretch. They dont win home playoff games.

take the Colts +5 and run with it. parlay it with the UNDER ( 57) so now you're at Colts +10 and 67 UNDER.

this game has 17-14 written all over it.Colts move on
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I jumped on that 6 before the public bets it down.

Best play of the weekend.

 
ZenoRazon said:
Do you honestly think Nick Saban goes into a kid;s home talking money?
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I honestly think that the way the football factories approach football is fundamentally different than the way most schools approach football, and that difference extends from recruitment to "graduation."

 
CalBear said:
I honestly think that the way the football factories approach football is fundamentally different than the way most schools approach football, and that difference extends from recruitment to "graduation."
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So how is it actually done?  A kid is promised a certain amount? What if he gets beats out, he loses his coin?  The other guy gets it?

So only some get paid?  No fear at all at some kid ratting anyone out?

 
FreeBaGeL said:
How come the font they used for the numbers on their helmets didn't help them win road conference games in those years, boss?
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I'm more into that all black Tennessee HS that went undefeated and unscored on for a season, and no opponet crossed the 50 yard line on them slick.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Tanner9919 said:
the key is that Andy Reid always has an Andy Reid moment in these big games and this one will be no different. Funny that he's equal to Schottenheimer in 4 one-n-done playoff appearances. what you can bet your money on is that the Chiefs will be ultra tight, ultra conservative, and will look nothing like the team that hung with the Rams. This is where Reid comes out and pounds the rock 30+ times, plays ball control, taks the ball out of  Mahomes' hands having him throw for about 185 yards and no more.. 

Colts look like the Wildcard 2007 NY Giants to me.Road Warriors. Tough D. GREAT play calling. great O-line playing well at the right time.team hitting their stride just as playoffs begin.

Chiefs lost 3 of last 6 games, floundering down the stretch. They dont win home playoff games.

take the Colts +5 and run with it. parlay it with the UNDER ( 57) so now you're at Colts +10 and 67 UNDER.

this game has 17-14 written all over it.Colts move on
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Andy Reid is 1-6 in the post season since '08 with 3 different QBs and 2 teams.  I do like Mahomes though. But Reid does have a disturbing track record over the last decade, including the worst collapse in post-season history iirc.

 
ZenoRazon said:
I got Colts plus whatever the number is Friday, I'm basing my play on this....

Chiefs...0-9 ATS under Reid in the playoffs.

Colts...4-0 ATS vs Chiefs in the Luck era.

Luck the best QB in the NFL ATS vs any opponet with a week off.

30 days self bannishment sound good?

Dumb is ignoring how things really are.
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This always seemed like a dumb, weird bet to me. What is the allure of offering these kinds of stakes?

 
ZenoRazon said:
When was there ever a time Troy could beat Alabama?
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In the past? Flukes happen. But probably not.

I assumed you were looking forward. If you're really suggesting a good sun belt team could never (in 100 years) beat an SEC team in a down year, you're not paying attention.  If you think Alabama will never have a down year, I can get on board but we'd both be wrong.

 
Drew Brees at home vs a vastly inferior QB.

Here we have the biggest talent difference when it comes to the two QB's.

I just have a rule......shine games with a number over 7.

 
-OZ- said:
In the past? Flukes happen. But probably not.

I assumed you were looking forward. If you're really suggesting a good sun belt team could never (in 100 years) beat an SEC team in a down year, you're not paying attention.  If you think Alabama will never have a down year, I can get on board but we'd both be wrong.
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Here in Cali we have....

Sacramento State

Hayward State

CPSL0

Bakersfield State

While college football there we have a totally different level of football, than what we find at Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA.  Then there Is this level....San Diego St, San Jose St, Fresno St.

While that second level could upset a Stanford, no way in hell that third level could. 

 
Manster said:
Andy Reid teams are great in the regular season....
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I mean he has been to a SB. I think the obvious weaknesses of McNabb and Smith understandably hamstrung him many years, you can only scheme around so much as the competition gets tougher. His clock management sucks but that applies to 80% of the NFL's HC's. 

 
ZenoRazon said:
Here in Cali we have....

Sacramento State

Hayward State

CPSL0

Bakersfield State

While college football there we have a totally different level of football, than what we find at Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA.  Then there Is this level....San Diego St, San Jose St, Fresno St.

While that second level could upset a Stanford, no way in hell that third level could. 
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I get what you're saying. But the third tier can become second tier in any given years. 

My under grad was at a decidedly third tier MAC school. But in different years we beat Duke in basketball and Purdue in football (the same Purdue that beat Ohio State) one of our sister schools beat Michigan State in football, Appalachian state beat Michigan, etc.  

It happens. Now I sure wouldn't bet on it in any given year, but over the course of a century, I sure wouldn't bet against it.

Troy is becoming a second tier program. It's not UCF, but it isn't unfathomable to think it could have similar success, especially with the region having many of the best recruits. 

Anyway, I went 0-5 last weekend (seriously, lost all 4 NFL games and bama). Luckily I don't bet.

 
-OZ- said:
I get what you're saying. But the third tier can become second tier in any given years. 

My under grad was at a decidedly third tier MAC school. But in different years we beat Duke in basketball and Purdue in football (the same Purdue that beat Ohio State) one of our sister schools beat Michigan State in football, Appalachian state beat Michigan, etc.  

It happens. Now I sure wouldn't bet on it in any given year, but over the course of a century, I sure wouldn't bet against it.

Troy is becoming a second tier program. It's not UCF, but it isn't unfathomable to think it could have similar success, especially with the region having many of the best recruits. 

Anyway, I went 0-5 last weekend (seriously, lost all 4 NFL games and bama). Luckily I don't bet.
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I would bet right now today all I own that Sacramento State will not beat Stanford in football the next 100 years. We are talking two totally different level of football there. One that has never changed and won't be. 

Everybody outside South Carolina lost with Bama,

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
This is terrible shtick.
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Knowing the difference between Sacramento State football and Stanford football is shtick?  Love to read why that is.

Do you know anything about this at all?

John Brodie

Jim Plunkett

John Elway

Andrew Luck

Stanford QB's, talk tome about Sacramento State QB's.

 
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