Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I meant the thread in general, I didn't even get as far as whatever your Sacramento St/Stanford discussion is about.
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Betting Trends Discussion - (Was $$$$$$$) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ZenoRazon
- Start date
Just talking gambling on football games is that a problem for you? Why?
I think giving out your location as a basement on a hill sucks.
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Break down Colts vs Chiefs from an ATS perspective then instead playing some critic.Not a problem at all, I love talking gambling.
-OZ-
Footballguy
There have been 34 NFL players from Troy, 20 from Sac St, talking all time history there.Troy >>>> Sacramento state.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Colts are 4-0 vs the Chiefs in the playoffs since moving to Indy in 1984.
The road team has lost 11 straight Saturday Divisional Round playoff games.
Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC teams.
Dome teams that played in outdoor stadium during playoff games are 18-36-2 ATS since 1990.
Mahomes has never won a playoff game where the game time temperature was below 40 degrees.
Teams that wear red jerseys score 10% more on average than any other color.
4 - 0 - 1984 + 11 + 12 - 5 + 17 + 18 - 36 - 2 + 1990 - 40 + 10 = -5
So if you can get the Colts at +5.5 or better it's smart money.
Drop the color of jerseys, and you have the idea.
Add....
Since the 1994 postseason, the Chiefs are 1-10 straight up and against the point spread in their last 11 playoff games. Overall in the NFL since last postseason, underdogs are on a 14-1 ATS run. Neither betting trend bodes well for Kansas City on Saturday vs. the Colts as a 5.5-point favorite but from a schematical standpoint it is a great matchup for the hosts offensively and could lead to OVER 57.
The Chiefs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as their leaky defense has led to backdoor covers and outright losses. They have allowed the second-most passing yards per game in the league (273.4) and are now facing a Colts team that is 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games and has allowed Andrew Luck to be sacked an NFL-low 18 times.
Now doesn't that beat being an old grump?
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
The question isn't whether it beats being an old grump, the question is whether it beats the vig.
CalBear
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
UC Davis was 2 years from being in Div 1-AA when they beat 'Fraud in 2005. And Sac State has beaten both Oregon State and Colorado.
And they just hired Troy Taylor as coach. Go Bears!
This isn't....hey of Buster Douglas.......
Stanford plays a whole other level of football than Sac State plays and I can;t see that changing.
CalBear
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How is this possible when Jim Harbaugh was able to beat Steve Bono in 1996?
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
I’m not gonna say this thread was the reason I cashed on Chiefs -5 ... but I’m not gonna say it wasn’t.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
This is the reason Vegas makes a fortune. Guys like Zeno are their bedrock.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Wasn't a tough game. One team played one of the 10 toughest schedules in the NFL, was a #1 seed and at home. The other team played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL was a 6th seed on the road. Huge mismatch.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Solid work here
belljr
Footballguy
Always fade Em er Zeno
I’m not gonna say this thread was the reason I cashed on Chiefs -5 ... but I’m not gonna say it wasn’t.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
But the Colts were undefeated ATS when they played the Chiefs with completely different players and completely different coaching staffs.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The Colts got spanked. Andrew Cuck will never win another playoff game so long as Mahomes is playing. Mahomes is more different at every level.
joey
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
Don't be a rookie guy, ok?
I also said this....
With Beasley a...? And the fact the Cowboys haven't won a road playoff game in over 25 years, really hard to make a case they win now. They were only 3-5 as 2018 roadwarriors. And when Vegas gives out a 7 as the number, that is a strong opinion on a Rams win.
What happened in Kansas City? Tell me, break it down.
Disagree with my picks...BEFORE...the game, ok?
COLD.....was what happened there, yes..........DUH~~~~ for not sticking to basic fundamentals. The Colts couldn't handle it.
64% of all those gamblers over at PICKWATCH had the Colts plus the points. That was the smart play, no doubt about it. and if not for a ridiculous roughing the kicker penalty.....hmmmm? Guy falls down. kicker trips over him.
Venitari missing 4 points..????
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well there seems like their should be at least some doubt since I actually won taking the Chiefs. But I guess you got the “moral victory” since you did the right thing - since Jim Harbaugh was able to cover the spread against Steve Bono in ‘96.
When I find a number I like I will. I only play 7 or less plays, and fav dogs, when I see that and can put some solid trends/stats in the play, yep...pull the trigger.
I'm playing with house $$$$ this time of the season.
Did you miss all the "recent" history involved with this "spot". The Colts had every advantage there is from an ATS perspective.
Dude, it got COLD, don't act like some rookie, ok?
Where is your Chiefs ATS play?
You don't ignore this.
Betting Trends to Know
The Chiefs have now made the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season under Andy Reid. Only one other coach in Chiefs history has accomplished that feat: Marty Schottenheimer.
Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, the Chiefs are 4-16 straight-up and 3-17 against the spread in the playoffs, including******* 0-9 ATS at home*******
The Colts and Chiefs have faced off four times previous to this week in the playoffs, Indianapolis is *******4-0 SU and ATS,******** with two of those four losses for Kansas City coming at home in Arrowhead Stadium.
For the 14th time his career, Andrew Luck faces a team on the road that’s on extended rest (eight or more days): Luck is******** 9-4 (69.2%) ATS, making him the NFL’s most profitable quarterback in this spot since he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2012.*****************
Take that 0=9. 4--0 and 9-4 and that gives the Colts a nice 22-4 trend in this "spot". I seriously doubt there will be a stronger play next weekend ATS.
The key to ATS wagering is finding "spots" where one side has a massive amount of numbers in their favor, yep, just like that above.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Imagine it being cold in KC in January. That shot is unheard of. Crazy bad beat.
So why was the number5.5, well?
Do you understand any of this?
Break down the two games today from an ATS perspective, love to see it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Already bored with this, like everybody else I saw a Chief 28 Colts 24 game, Colts plus the number but........COLD.
Ok, moving on.
Cal....never gets any respect, C.J.Anderson. BEASTMODE, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Desuen Jackson, Chuck Muncie, hell....Tony Gonzalez among the alum. Then there was Wesley Walker a great Jets receiver legally blind in one eye, and....faster than Jackson.
Ok, moving on.
Cal....never gets any respect, C.J.Anderson. BEASTMODE, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Desuen Jackson, Chuck Muncie, hell....Tony Gonzalez among the alum. Then there was Wesley Walker a great Jets receiver legally blind in one eye, and....faster than Jackson.
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Dude, time to move on, all those who really understand this stuff don't freak out over..a....play, ok? Don't be a little pest.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Sure. When you talk down to people when they express an opposing viewpoint be prepared to take some heat when you’re ultimately wrong.
No problem with you being wrong on the call though, it happens.
And when you’re wrong don’t make lame excuses like “cold”. Do you not have a weather app or common sense? It’s January and a cold weather city.
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I do think the Seahawks would have stood a far better chance of beating the Rams, Wilson a lot better than Prescott and they know them better.
Break down one of the games today from an ATS perspective, talk me into a side.
You aren't going to do it because you don't know how. All I was doing is showing what serious players look at but like some little kid.....YOU WERE WRONG....haha~~~
Want me to take you someplace where all those gamblers have TONS of losses but more wins?
Talk down or tell you how things really are when it comes to ATS wagering because ir was obvious you didn't know?
Break down one of the games today from an ATS perspective, talk me into a side.
You aren't going to do it because you don't know how. All I was doing is showing what serious players look at but like some little kid.....YOU WERE WRONG....haha~~~
Want me to take you someplace where all those gamblers have TONS of losses but more wins?
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
And there’s why you lose. Next time ask someone knowledgable to break it down from a football standpoint. You can get a lot of help here at this board doing that. Or just keep paying your bookie.
It's never from a football standpoint rookie, it's always from a numbers standpoint and historical trends. And if you understood any of this you'd know that.
Dude, you you not understand "trends" and "spots"?
How do the Pats do as a home fav laying 6 or less, well? How about coming off a bye and on the road?
Did you really say....football standpoint?...hahahaha~~~~~~~~~
Come on guy.
By the way up over 4300 this season, ok?
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I get it. You’re the guy who provokes a fight to show everyone how tough he is, gets beaten bloody but just can’t resist throwing off some insults as the other guy shows mercy and walks away, then can’t understand why the guy came back and curbstomped him.
Your act is tired, old, and hardly original, so this will be my last response in this thread. I’ll offer a last piece of advice - that I’m certain you aren’t capable of taking, but I’ll try anyhow: when you find yourself standing deep in a hole, it’s a sign of good judgment and maturity that you admit it and ask for some help out rather than continuing to keep digging.
sho nuff
Footballguy
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