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Bitcoin-Explain to me how to buy these things (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sheriff Bart
- Start date
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
To get started, no matter the amount, I'd do like 1/3 BTC, 1/3 ETH, and play around with the other 1/3 in whatever looks interesting to you.
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Insoxicated
ren hoek
Footballguy
i’d say you should be in good shape to jump in if/when total crypto market capitalization falls below $1T. it still feels pretty overbought to me. in 2018 we took an 80% haircut from about $1T to ~$200B. i mean who literally thinks a bitcoin is worth more than $50,000 dollars and would make that trade today. i sure as hell wouldn’t.
i mean i like crypto long term, specifically bat and eth and dex/defi tokens. but bitcoin’s blocksize limit and fee structure basically kills its utility as a sovereign currency, at least while prices are this high. it’s a speculative gambling token fueled by cult-like delusion. people are going to figure this out eventually. i really miss the days when people traded 30,000 bitcoin for a pizza.
it’s just the tail end of the govt’s insane moneyprinting spree, which appears to be coming to a close. for once in their lives they appear to be sensitive to people’s concerns about inflation, and look serious about raising rates (aka ending the gravy train somewhat). i’m glad i got a whole bunch of gold and silver, it is extremely comfy over here. i’ve been 65/35 metal/crypto for a long time now, it’s a risk allocation i like a lot and imo a good hedge against what’s coming. now i don’t pull my hair out anymore like i did in 2018
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Insoxicated
You might be the only person in here still viewing BTC through the lens of a transactional currency vs a store of value.
ren hoek
Footballguy
At what point does it start storing value? $50k? $30k? $10k? Or the hope that it one day becomes worth $100k and you sell it for usd? I doubt people who bought it at $60k feel like it stored value for them.
I don't think a reliable store of value falls 30% in a month or gains 20% because of an elon musk tweet. How many of you are planning to hold it forever to store your value?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Well, that doesn't seem smart. Looking for an investing activity to do with the kids (15&13) and they've been hearing about this... or buying Gamestop stock.
Another option would be expanding on collectible cards purchases but seems like that market may be cooling down from the craze of the last year or so. Could always just do the straightforward stock market investments like the Beaver 60 years ago.
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Insoxicated
IT's certianly not stable enough yet for a fair comparison, but at what point does Gold start holding value? You hold Gold for many different reasons... I'd think eventually you'd hold BTC for those same reasons. We've not stabilized enough yet but with the massive influx of institutional money I suspect we'll get there.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
When moon?
PinkydaPimp
Footballguy
52w low is 28.8. Don’t think we will see it. But there is that. Ill be dcaing in the meantime.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
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Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Technically we just cut through major support. I see more pain ahead with BTC to hit $30k if not lower.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
You guys are doing it right. You're going to love these purchases in the future.same
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Honestly I'm not sure BTC key levels matter right now since it is just moving lock step with the Nasdaq. Doesn't seem like it is going to recover until QQQ does, the actual BTC levels don't really seem to be doing much anymore.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I bought 150 GBTC around 42k & another 150 today when it was around 38.5k. 30k was my next target to buy more if it keeps dropping. I appreciate your post!
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I'd be surprised (stunned even) if it didn't hit below that mark.
Itll be a good buying opportunity for crypto believers. Down 15+% past week and 25% past month and think there's much more to come
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KGB
Footballguy
Im set and forget right now too. not selling at a down time for sure.
What are your 5?
ericttspikes
Footballguy
If anything, China and Russia cracking down on Bitcoin makes me more of a believer.
ren hoek
Footballguy
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
What amount of volatility do you find acceptable for a store of value asset and how does gold's fall of nearly 50% from 2011 to 2016 fall into that?ren hoek said:
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Wouldn't it be cool to say this instead.2Squirrels1Nut said:
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Gold is an insurance policy IMO -- its value rises when people become concerned with SHTF scenarios and historic-level currency or market instability.
Those things sometimes correlate with inflation, but it's not a short term inflation hedge even though in long run it will likely keep up with inflation.
And given how much of our portfolios (everyone in the US) are dollar-based (our house, our stocks, our savings, basically everything we own) having an insurance policy that's paid out for @ren hoek's 4000 years seems wise to me. Especially today as too many dollars (and every other currency) chase trash.
I'm sure crypto is a fun ride, and lots of people have made money in it, but there's no chance I'm using it as an insurance policy.
YMMV
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
I use different definitions for insurance policy and crypto than you do. Something capable of losing 50% of its value is not an insurance policy. Crypto is a technology, not just store of value asset like Bitcoin.
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Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Do you guys think that gold immediately became a stable, low volatility store of value upon introduction, or did it take years, likely hundreds, before it's volatility quieted to what we see today?
BTC's volatility is decreasing as the network increases. Adoption takes time, and if its current volatility is too risky for you at the moment, then perhaps you'll check back in a few years. However, I'm confident that by the time its volatility is more suitable for you, trillions more will have piled into the network and you'll be buying $500k BTC instead of $30k. Of course, you'll have your gold holdings whose performance in real terms will have guaranteed you lost money. That's not my bag, but to each his own.
BTC's volatility is decreasing as the network increases. Adoption takes time, and if its current volatility is too risky for you at the moment, then perhaps you'll check back in a few years. However, I'm confident that by the time its volatility is more suitable for you, trillions more will have piled into the network and you'll be buying $500k BTC instead of $30k. Of course, you'll have your gold holdings whose performance in real terms will have guaranteed you lost money. That's not my bag, but to each his own.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I agree with your premise but you can't look back now on the people of 1850s California and think they were dumb not to just hold on to the gold since eventually the volatility would decrease.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
I agree. What I take exception to is the people in 1850's California saying gold isn't a store of value because of its volatility while storing their value in something that will likely lose value in real terms.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Something losing 50% of it's value isn't a store of value.
But it still functions as an insurance policy because if I ever need to use it it's not going to be at 50% of its value. The premium to buy a similar policy may go up and down after I buy it, but I don't care about that. I just care that I'm covered.
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Captain Cranks
Footballguy
I have to get some semantics out of the way first. There are several definitions we could use for insurance, but generally speaking it is "a thing providing protection against a possible eventuality." You're saying that gold plays that role with stock market exposure. It does not. It is a diversification tool, but it does not provide protection against stock market losses. Put options are insurance policies against stock market losses.Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Here's a recent study that analyzed gold and concluded "that gold has, since 1980 onwards, failed to act as a hedge or a strong haven against Indian as well as U.S. stocks. In fact, it showed a positive co-movement with the S&P500 in extreme market movements. This can be explained by the possibility that in extreme periods, investors may be selling off all financial assets and moving into cash."
ren hoek
Footballguy
You are comparing an asset that lost 50% over 5 years to another that lost 50% in just the past 2 months. Gold's performance as store of value has been fine. It did lose under 50% over the course of 5 years, but has since recovered. It has thousands of years' worth of performing in that sense, so I'm not worried about its short or even mid term performance. I just know long term it is one of the safest stores of value there is. It's a tangible commodity that actually exists in the real world. Gold is god's money.
Most stock/investment assets meanwhile are (or were) peaking because of easy money from the Fed. Bitcoin is a pretty hilarious example of it, because it has its own money printing scheme with Tether. This opaque company run by a handful of people controls one of the top 5 cryptos in the world, rarely discloses its partners or where its billion dollar purchases come from, has not been forthcoming with audits and things of that nature. They were also found to have committed fraud and hidden $850 million in losses by the New York AG. Tether prints billions, pretend dollars go into the price of bitcoin, and the line just magically goes up! There is nothing even remotely similar to that propping up gold/silver markets.
Look, I like crypto. I just think bitcoin has no real reason to exist with much better projects out there that don't become cost-prohibitive and useless as the price goes up. A digital ledger system that produces nothing for the world and fails as a medium of exchange shouldn't destroy the environment for the sake of mining digital beanie babies. Bitcoin is a high risk/reward asset driven by rampant speculation, a huge financial bubble, and the expectation that you can sell it to someone else for more than you paid for it. It's a ponzi mentality in every sense. And to be clear it's worked out nicely for a lot of people that got in early- never mind the suicide hotlines and panic sellers that lost everything- but will it work forever off first mover advantage alone?
Honestly. I think it is ridiculous to call bitcoin a store of value. Stores of value don't rocket up and down off Elon Musk tweets or the US govt breathing at it the wrong way. Crypto is an awesome way to make money and will probably work out well for us long term, but it shouldn't be confused with being a reliable store of value. I think metal is the real hedge against everything going on right now.
beer 30
Footballguy
I forget about this or maybe never knew but an interesting discussion nonetheless
OBJ took his Ram’s salary in BTC
OBJ took his Ram’s salary in BTC
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
You're not worried about gold's short and medium term performance. Just Bitcoin's? Seems a tad inconsistent.
What you're saying is, at the very least, hyperbole if not downright false. This is conspiracy theory stuff that probably plays well in those circles but won't stand up to any scrutiny. Saying things like Bitcoin "has its own money printing scheme" isn't something to be taken seriously.
jm192
Footballguy
You guys have convinced me to not own Gold. But it doesn’t make me any higher on Bitcoin as a “store of value.” Bonds are a store of value, no? I-Bonds and TIPS will keep up with inflation.
Is anyone 100% on crypto as a “store of value?” Seems like there are just way safer options.
Is anyone 100% on crypto as a “store of value?” Seems like there are just way safer options.
Warrior
Footballguy
Are you seriously asking if crypto is a safe option? Just buy your bonds and move on already.
massraider
Footballguy
https://youtu.be/YQ_xWvX1n9g
Two hour video, I'm about 45 minutes in, probably understand 25%.
Like to hear people's thoughts tho.
Two hour video, I'm about 45 minutes in, probably understand 25%.
Like to hear people's thoughts tho.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Hmmm. Monopoly money. Is that like paper that gets printed without any real intrinsic value other than society agrees that it has value? I handed some of that to the valet last night.
jm192
Footballguy
No.
I keep reading “you don’t understand bitcoin. It’s about a store of value.”
And if someone’s argument FOR bitcoin is as a store of value, why would one not go with Bonds/tips/etc?
If you’re looking for the risky asset that may make you stupid rich, then I get it. But between here and Reddit, all the Bitcoin talk seems to be about how it’s a store of value and going to replace Gold.
So I just asked about it as a store of value. No need for the snark.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
As somebody that is a big believer in precious metals as well as a believer in crypto—I just want to address the gold versus bitcoin discussion. In brutal honesty—I was not super early in the crypto game—but was early enough to have some slight exposure early enough to where it’s still been a profitable move for me. With that said—here are some difference between the two that I will make:
You don’t buy gold, silver, and precious metals to get rich—you buy them to avoid getting poor. They need to be viewed as assets that are supplemental to other investments (equities, real estate, crypto..etc). They are tangible, and they do have the ability to be used in exchange for goods/services—and dont require electricity and an internet connection to do so.
Most people that I know that invest in crypto—don’t do it to stop themselves from going poor—they invest in them as a vehicle to get rich. Most people that invest in crypto do so for wealth generation—and not so much wealth preservation. The dynamics are different versus precious metals. One also has to remember that crypto’s are newer to the markets/the world than precious metals—and because of this—they carry a lot more risk in regards to potential future regulatory concerns.
With that said—-we all just witnessed the powers of manipulation that governments around the world carry when it comes to artificially inflating/deflating markets through the powers of the printing presses. Some governments will inevitably see crypto’s as a possible threat to their powers of manipulation and control over the markets. The appeal of crypto was that it is supposed to be a decentralized asset whose appeal is that its not connected or controlled by any one government. However—there is so much Wall Street money in cryptos and bitcoin right now—that it feels like it seems to be a bit more connected to what the markets do. It shot up like a rocket when the market was shooting up—and it crashed down with the markets recently.
You don’t buy gold, silver, and precious metals to get rich—you buy them to avoid getting poor. They need to be viewed as assets that are supplemental to other investments (equities, real estate, crypto..etc). They are tangible, and they do have the ability to be used in exchange for goods/services—and dont require electricity and an internet connection to do so.
Most people that I know that invest in crypto—don’t do it to stop themselves from going poor—they invest in them as a vehicle to get rich. Most people that invest in crypto do so for wealth generation—and not so much wealth preservation. The dynamics are different versus precious metals. One also has to remember that crypto’s are newer to the markets/the world than precious metals—and because of this—they carry a lot more risk in regards to potential future regulatory concerns.
With that said—-we all just witnessed the powers of manipulation that governments around the world carry when it comes to artificially inflating/deflating markets through the powers of the printing presses. Some governments will inevitably see crypto’s as a possible threat to their powers of manipulation and control over the markets. The appeal of crypto was that it is supposed to be a decentralized asset whose appeal is that its not connected or controlled by any one government. However—there is so much Wall Street money in cryptos and bitcoin right now—that it feels like it seems to be a bit more connected to what the markets do. It shot up like a rocket when the market was shooting up—and it crashed down with the markets recently.
arrow1
Footballguy
jb1020
Footballguy
ren hoek
Footballguy
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
I think this is where people are getting tripped up. We're not there yet. If you want to put your money into something that's guaranteed to hold its value for the next 6 months to a year, it's not BTC. It's too volatile and risky at this point. However, as the network grows, the volatility and risk will decrease.
Here's a crude math exercise to explain the trajectory we're on. If I have $1 pool of money and someone increases it by $1, the pool has now increase 100%. If another $1 is put it, it increases the pool by 50%. The next dollar increases it 33% and so on. We're not at the point with BTC where marginal activity results in immaterial price moves. The network is too small and there are too many risk seeking players involved. Yet some of us believe that eventually gold is "going to" be replaced by Bitcoin as the network adoption grows and volatility decreases.
People are correct to say that gold is a safer asset than Bitcoin at this time. However, they're wrong to state it's some sort of safe haven asset or insurance policy against market corrections unless they can punch holes in the study I linked above.
jb1020
Footballguy
Anyone have BTT on Kucoin? Something funky going on. Twitter says there is "re-ratioing" going on. my bad went from a meager 4 figures to well over 6 figures today, but its all locked up. I've been trying like mad to transfer it, but it keeps saying that wallet undergoing maintenance.
If anyone knows any tricks to getting it out you can stay at my beach house I'll be buying later today.
If anyone knows any tricks to getting it out you can stay at my beach house I'll be buying later today.
