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BnB's Baker's Dozen (1 Viewer)

BassNBrew

Footballguy
Inspired by Lhucks, here are my top 13 pre-NFL draft value picks for 2006 redraft leagues. The draft positions are based on a recent draft with prominent FBG members in a 16 team league.

Chris Brown RB31 - Finished ranked 20th and 24th in limited action over the last two seasons. Despite his upright running style, he does have talent. I expect Tenn to draft a QB in the first and don't see anyone on the roster who's a threat to unseat Brown.

Aaron Brooks QB19 - A perrenial top 10 fantasy QB who finsihed ranked 16 last year despite missing 3 games. Please explain how moving to the Raiders with weapons like Moss and Porter reduces his value?

Dominic Rhodes RB38 - Obviously a high risk pick, but a potential homerun later in the draft. At this point in time, he's the most likely 2006 version of Mike Anderson or LJ. Yes, Indy will likely bring in a rookie to compete. No they won't risk manning's health with someone unfamiliar with the audibles and blocking assignments. Yes, there's enough scoring ops in Indy for two backs to finish in the top 30.

Michael Clayton WR39 - I'm expecting a return to 2004 numbers and believe injuries and ball cancer hampered him in 2005.

Reggie Brown WR43 - Until I hear otherwise, he's the number 1 WR in the league's most pass happy offense.

Ben Watson TE12 - Really came on in the second half of last year. The thin receiving options in NE coupled with Brady should lead to his emergence this year.

Zach Hilton TE17 - Brees' likes his TEs...NTTAWWT. I think the second half of 2005 shows the potential here for a very cheap price.

Dallas Clark TE18 - Grossly over rated last year. Seems to have slipped to a position where Manning's potential makes him a bargain

Marion Barber RB49 - Finished 35th among the RBs last year. I don't see his load decreasing and Parcel's may actually like this guy.

Reche Caldwell WR74 - NE's #2WR has consistantly posted numbers around WR40. This guy is a must have acquisition at WR74.

Drew Carter WR84 - Forget Colbert, this will be the slot man in Carolina. We're now in deep sleeper territory, but Carter is the best option out there to bust into the top 30 in the right circumstances.

Stephen Alexander TE31 - I thought he had become the Bronco's #1 TE in receiving terms at the end of last year. Putzier has moved on leaving a huge opportunity for Alexander. Of course this could go up in smoke if the Denver drafts a rookie in the first.

Lee Suggs RB71 - OK, he's on my sleeper list every year. Eventually a blind squirrel will find and nut and this nut is basically free. I still believe that he has talent.

 
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Drew Carter WR84 - Forget Colbert, this will be the slot man in Carolina. We're now in deep sleeper territory, but Carter is the best option out there to bust into the top 30 in the right circumstances.
this board and this guy.....I don't get it
 
Ben Watson TE12 - Really came on in the second half of last year.
what do you project for him?I don't see 2-3 catches and 30-40 ypg as really coming on but it's a significant improvement and I get your point
 
I hope my league owners don't read this board... I'm on the bandwagon also... :) Ssssssshhhhhhhhh quiet now.. :)

 
Drew Carter WR84 - Forget Colbert, this will be the slot man in Carolina.  We're now in deep sleeper territory, but Carter is the best option out there to bust into the top 30 in the right circumstances.
this board and this guy.....I don't get it
?
 
Drew Carter WR84 - Forget Colbert, this will be the slot man in Carolina.  We're now in deep sleeper territory, but Carter is the best option out there to bust into the top 30 in the right circumstances.
this board and this guy.....I don't get it
?
he gets alot of love here off of 5 catches for 103 yards
 
nice BnB...

i especialy like brooks, clayton, REGGIE brown & watson...

sometimes the squirrel finds a nut... unless the squirrel IS a nut... :)

good work,

as you were, carry on...

* imo, fact that CHRIS brown seems to get hurt a lot, could open door for henry to encroach on his carries...

 
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So you project Watson to be a bargain because they don't really have a #2 wr then a few spots below you claim Caldwell is a great deal because Patriot wr's always do well?

 
So you project Watson to be a bargain because they don't really have a #2 wr then a few spots below you claim Caldwell is a great deal because Patriot wr's always do well?
Guess I wasn't real clear there. The receiving options have been decimated so there's plenty of slack to pick up. Watson finished #15 last year, but 37 of his receptions were in the last 8 games. He's developing into a nice weapon and I think Brady will look to him more often. Watson - Talent then opportunity.

Caldwell - Opportunity then talent.

 
he turned in a distressingly rod gardner-like season... :)

:insidejoke:
touche...You have to admit that the projections in that thread were mostly dead on.
maybe a case of being right for wrong reasons (hey... i was wrong for wrong reasons :) )... your projections may have been low if you figured on him getting beaten out by gardner... gardner was released...strangely, even as down as you were on colbert, he probably did even a lot worse than you thought... i'm guessing you WOULD have projected him higher if you knew in advance he starts most of the year?

but i'm not sure, maybe you didn't project gardner to start over colbert...

i thought i saw some isaac bruce in colbert, but needless to say i am not as high on him as i was this time last year...

* approximately half the battle in fantasy football is not just being right... but recognizing when you are wrong... :)

 
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he turned in a distressingly rod gardner-like season... :)

:insidejoke:
touche...You have to admit that the projections in that thread were mostly dead on.
maybe a case of being right for wrong reasons (hey... i was wrong for wrong reasons :) )... your projections may have been low if you figured on him getting beaten out by gardner... gardner was released...strangely, even as down as you were on colbert, he probably did even a lot worse than you thought... i'm guessing you WOULD have projected him higher if you knew in advance he starts most of the year?

but i'm not sure, maybe you didn't project gardner to start over colbert...

i thought i saw some isaac bruce in colbert, but needless to say i am not as high on him as i was this time last year...

* approximately half the battle in fantasy football is not just being right... but recognizing when you are wrong... :)
"That leaves 1100 between Colbert, Gardner, Carter, and Proehl. Worst case, Proehl and Carter get 400."These four WRs had 910 yards.

"I don't see Colbert getting 70% of that."

Colbert had 282 yards. I didn't see Colbert getting 70% of the available yards. He ended up with 31% of the non-Smith WR yards.

Never really projected Colbert's output other then to say he would get less then 560 yards. Proehl and Carter had 544.

 
my point had to do with... did you have him projected low because you thought gardner would beat him out?

if you had taken a position on that question, it wasn't clear from excerpt...

 
Drew Carter WR84 - Forget Colbert, this will be the slot man in Carolina.  We're now in deep sleeper territory, but Carter is the best option out there to bust into the top 30 in the right circumstances.
this board and this guy.....I don't get it
?
he gets alot of love here off of 5 catches for 103 yards
did you watch him in the playoffs? he looked very impressive to me in those games with the few chances he had.4 rec for 131 yards and a TD in 2 playoff games.

6'3", 200lbs, and clearly very fast. assuming he can stay healthy, what's not to like?

 
Butterfingers? And there's only so many looks he will get considering he's got two clearly superior recievers ahead of him and that the Panthers are generally considered a run-first team.

 
Watson finished #15 last year, but 37 of his receptions were in the last 8 games.
Watson was only 29-441-4 for the whole season. He had 19 receptions, not 37, in weeks 10-17 (last 8 games).
 
Butterfingers? And there's only so many looks he will get considering he's got two clearly superior recievers ahead of him and that the Panthers are generally considered a run-first team.
for the 84th WR drafted, you gotta take some chances :shrug:

 
Zach Hilton TE17 - Brees' likes his TEs...NTTAWWT. I think the second half of 2005 shows the potential here for a very cheap price.
I have been an ardent supporter of Hilton, but there are some things that make me a little concerned.For starters, he is a RFA and any team can sign him to an offer and the Saints could match. If New Orleans declined, they would be due ample retribution to where he was drafted, which was not at all. So a team would not have to give up a single draft pick to obtain his services.Second, depending upon which sites you trust, some places have Ernie Conwell atop the Saints depth chart. Conwell got hurt last year and that allowed Hilton to get the amount of playing time that he did.It remains to be seen if Hilton gets an offer from another team and if Conwell reclaims his role as starter. Clearly Hilton has more physical tools than Conwell does, so I am more concerned about Hilton's status as a RFA than anything at this point.
 
I've always been a fan of Brooks (at least for fantasy purposes) so I'm glad to see you named him.

Do you really see that much upside with Dallas Clark? I agree with many of your names but Clark is a guy I don't see vast amounts of upisde to. Before I talk about him any further, it would help to know what kind of value you think he represents. Top 15? Meh, can't argue. Top 10? Top 7? 5? Where?

 
Reggie Brown WR43 - Until I hear otherwise, he's the number 1 WR in the league's most pass happy offense.
While I agree that based on where he'll be drafted Brown is worth a shot, but I do wonder what to expect from the #1 WR on a Top 3 most pass happy offense.How did other WR in Philly do not named Owens? Mitchell, Pinkston, Thrash, Freeman, Johnson, and Small were not exactly earth shaking in terms of productivity. Not saying that Brown = any of these guys, just that results were a bit tepid in the past . . .
 
Zach Hilton TE17 - Brees' likes his TEs...NTTAWWT. I think the second half of 2005 shows the potential here for a very cheap price.
I have been an ardent supporter of Hilton, but there are some things that make me a little concerned.For starters, he is a RFA and any team can sign him to an offer and the Saints could match. If New Orleans declined, they would be due ample retribution to where he was drafted, which was not at all. So a team would not have to give up a single draft pick to obtain his services.

Second, depending upon which sites you trust, some places have Ernie Conwell atop the Saints depth chart. Conwell got hurt last year and that allowed Hilton to get the amount of playing time that he did.

It remains to be seen if Hilton gets an offer from another team and if Conwell reclaims his role as starter. Clearly Hilton has more physical tools than Conwell does, so I am more concerned about Hilton's status as a RFA than anything at this point.
What about BOO?
 
Zach Hilton TE17 - Brees' likes his TEs...NTTAWWT. I think the second half of 2005 shows the potential here for a very cheap price.
I have been an ardent supporter of Hilton, but there are some things that make me a little concerned.For starters, he is a RFA and any team can sign him to an offer and the Saints could match. If New Orleans declined, they would be due ample retribution to where he was drafted, which was not at all. So a team would not have to give up a single draft pick to obtain his services.

Second, depending upon which sites you trust, some places have Ernie Conwell atop the Saints depth chart. Conwell got hurt last year and that allowed Hilton to get the amount of playing time that he did.

It remains to be seen if Hilton gets an offer from another team and if Conwell reclaims his role as starter. Clearly Hilton has more physical tools than Conwell does, so I am more concerned about Hilton's status as a RFA than anything at this point.
What about BOO?
IIRC he was cut. After showing a glimpse of promise he really busted.
 
Zach Hilton TE17 - Brees' likes his TEs...NTTAWWT. I think the second half of 2005 shows the potential here for a very cheap price.
I have been an ardent supporter of Hilton, but there are some things that make me a little concerned.For starters, he is a RFA and any team can sign him to an offer and the Saints could match. If New Orleans declined, they would be due ample retribution to where he was drafted, which was not at all. So a team would not have to give up a single draft pick to obtain his services.

Second, depending upon which sites you trust, some places have Ernie Conwell atop the Saints depth chart. Conwell got hurt last year and that allowed Hilton to get the amount of playing time that he did.

It remains to be seen if Hilton gets an offer from another team and if Conwell reclaims his role as starter. Clearly Hilton has more physical tools than Conwell does, so I am more concerned about Hilton's status as a RFA than anything at this point.
What about BOO?
He didn't play in 2005 and is not currently on the Saints' roster. I can't find any contract information on him, so I am inclined to think he is not on a roster.
 
Has it come out what Michael Clayton was suffering from? A shoulder I believe? I didn't watch many Bucs games late in the season but it didn't seem Simms was looking the kids way-everything seemed to be locked onto Galloway. Young guys often lock onto a player and throw without going through checkdowns.

I think a lot of people may be thinking Galloway's year was a bit of a fluke and that Clayton will steal his catches-which might actually make Joey decent value.

 
Zach Hilton TE17 - Brees' likes his TEs...NTTAWWT. I think the second half of 2005 shows the potential here for a very cheap price.
I have been an ardent supporter of Hilton, but there are some things that make me a little concerned.For starters, he is a RFA and any team can sign him to an offer and the Saints could match. If New Orleans declined, they would be due ample retribution to where he was drafted, which was not at all. So a team would not have to give up a single draft pick to obtain his services.

Second, depending upon which sites you trust, some places have Ernie Conwell atop the Saints depth chart. Conwell got hurt last year and that allowed Hilton to get the amount of playing time that he did.

It remains to be seen if Hilton gets an offer from another team and if Conwell reclaims his role as starter. Clearly Hilton has more physical tools than Conwell does, so I am more concerned about Hilton's status as a RFA than anything at this point.
What about BOO?
He didn't play in 2005 and is not currently on the Saints' roster. I can't find any contract information on him, so I am inclined to think he is not on a roster.
He didn't play because he was injured.
 
Saints | Team terminates Williams’ contract

Thu, 23 Feb 2006 21:04:56 -0800

NewOrleansSaints.com reports the New Orleans Saints have terminated the contract of TE Boo Williams.

LINK

 
Saints | Team terminates Williams’ contract

Thu, 23 Feb 2006 21:04:56 -0800

NewOrleansSaints.com reports the New Orleans Saints have terminated the contract of TE Boo Williams.

LINK
Couldn't read the article, blocked at work. Did it say anything about him being released because of the injury issue?
 
Saints | Team terminates Williams’ contract

Thu, 23 Feb 2006 21:04:56 -0800

NewOrleansSaints.com reports the New Orleans Saints have terminated the contract of TE Boo Williams.

LINK
Couldn't read the article, blocked at work. Did it say anything about him being released because of the injury issue?
It did not say anything more than what I posted. There was a link to the Saints home page but it only was only the front page and I didn't see anything about Boo.The only other thing I found was commentary on his player page at USAToday:

"A fantasy sleeper not so long ago, Williams struggled through a miserable 2004 season before tearing his ACL before 2005. He was in danger of being cut before the injury and may not make it back to the NFL."

As for Conwell, he recently told a Baton Rouge paper that he’s "still limited because of knee surgery, but will be 100 percent by training camp, if not the second veteran mini-camp in early June."

 
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Zach Hilton TE17 - Brees' likes his TEs...NTTAWWT. I think the second half of 2005 shows the potential here for a very cheap price.
I have been an ardent supporter of Hilton, but there are some things that make me a little concerned.For starters, he is a RFA and any team can sign him to an offer and the Saints could match. If New Orleans declined, they would be due ample retribution to where he was drafted, which was not at all. So a team would not have to give up a single draft pick to obtain his services.

Second, depending upon which sites you trust, some places have Ernie Conwell atop the Saints depth chart. Conwell got hurt last year and that allowed Hilton to get the amount of playing time that he did.

It remains to be seen if Hilton gets an offer from another team and if Conwell reclaims his role as starter. Clearly Hilton has more physical tools than Conwell does, so I am more concerned about Hilton's status as a RFA than anything at this point.
Also a very real risk the Saints draft a TE in the second or third round of the draft ...
 
Drew Carter WR84 - Forget Colbert, this will be the slot man in Carolina.  We're now in deep sleeper territory, but Carter is the best option out there to bust into the top 30 in the right circumstances.
this board and this guy.....I don't get it
Drew Carter is ideal for the survivor format. his huge game count, his 0's don't.In 12 team leagues, setting line-ups week to week, good luck. He'll need an injury to S.Smith / Key be valuable.

 
In 12 team leagues, setting line-ups week to week, good luck. He'll need an injury to S.Smith / Key be valuable.
everytime i read your name, i cringe :X ... where did you think of that?
 
Josh McCown..

should beat Kitna by the first day of training camp.c'mon now, its Jon Kitna for pete's sake! lol...

Ben Troupe - this guy is a monster..he's ready to become a top 5 TE..

Steve McNair - if he goes to Baltimore...great O-line,Lewis, Mason & Clayton..

Fraud Taylor - Could be primed for a big year..lots of doubts linger about him..

lost weight,reportedly in great shape..his injury-riddled past scares everyone..

Chris Simms - Chucky will take the training wheels off him and let him play! Griese no longer in TB to push Simms for the starting job..Simms won't be looking over his shoulder anymore...its his gig now...promising ending to the 2005 season, looked poised in the pocket, tough kid, big arm...Caddy back 100% healthy..Simms could be on the verge of a breakout season..

David Carr - Bush.Kubiak.Moulds. AJ. Putzier...Improved O-line. Chop Blocks....put up or shut up time for Carr..all the pieces are there for him to have a

good year!

Frank Gore or Kevan Barlow - OC Norv Turner has never been a RBBC guy, he sticks with 1 RB and runs him 20-25 times per game. Either one is likely be the featured back in SF...you'll see a dramatic improvement in the rushing offense for the Niners, and one of these RB's will likely finish in the top 15 at the position...the best friend of a struggling young QB, is a strong running game...Turner is one of the best offense coordinators in the league, he'll get this offense up and running in no time...

 
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Has it come out what Michael Clayton was suffering from? A shoulder I believe? I didn't watch many Bucs games late in the season but it didn't seem Simms was looking the kids way-everything seemed to be locked onto Galloway. Young guys often lock onto a player and throw without going through checkdowns.

I think a lot of people may be thinking Galloway's year was a bit of a fluke and that Clayton will steal his catches-which might actually make Joey decent value.
You name it, he hurt it. Left Knee Surgery recovery, Shoulder dislocation, re-aggravated Shoulder, Bruised Right Knee, and Toe Sprain
 
my point had to do with... did you have him projected low because you thought gardner would beat him out?

if you had taken a position on that question, it wasn't clear from excerpt...
My position was that I projected him low because he sucked, couldn't get separation, and didn't have great hands. While Gardner was the likely candidate to take the job, I did mention that he could plummet down the depth chart to 4 or 5...which is where he was at the end of the year.Props to you for the call on Gardner. He actually stunk up the joint worse than Colbert, which is really, really bad.

 
I've always been a fan of Brooks (at least for fantasy purposes) so I'm glad to see you named him.

Do you really see that much upside with Dallas Clark? I agree with many of your names but Clark is a guy I don't see vast amounts of upisde to. Before I talk about him any further, it would help to know what kind of value you think he represents. Top 15? Meh, can't argue. Top 10? Top 7? 5? Where?
I like Clark's potential to finish in the top 8-12 range. Where I see the value is being able to wait until everyone esle drafts a TE and then picking up two of these potential guys late in the draft.
 
did you watch him in the playoffs? he looked very impressive to me in those games with the few chances he had.

4 rec for 131 yards and a TD in 2 playoff games.

6'3", 200lbs, and clearly very fast. assuming he can stay healthy, what's not to like?
His regular season stats.That he played for a team desperate for a WR to step up and didn't. Playoffs and regular season combined what did he have 250 yards 2TDs?

Colbert is also young and clearly better liked by the team or Delhomme in that he's got 72 rec for 1036 yards and 7TDs in 2 years. There's such a giant difference in stats.

One could argue Carter is young and all the "getting his feet wet"+learning stuff that goes along with that but so is Colbert.

When has a 4th WR been productive in FF the last few years? Shaun McDonald or Chatman for a single game maybe but other than that?

It's cool that the Panthers like their young speedy wideout as their 4th WR and think he brings good depth but that doesn't mean he should be on an FF team. If FF is all about opportunity, where is his?

 
I've always been a fan of Brooks (at least for fantasy purposes) so I'm glad to see you named him. 

Do you really see that much upside with Dallas Clark?  I agree with many of your names but Clark is a guy I don't see vast amounts of upisde to.  Before I talk about him any further, it would help to know what kind of value you think he represents.  Top 15?  Meh, can't argue.  Top 10?  Top 7?  5?  Where?
I like Clark's potential to finish in the top 8-12 range. Where I see the value is being able to wait until everyone esle drafts a TE and then picking up two of these potential guys late in the draft.
what's the NFL average for yardage receiving by starting TEs? 350? He's a shade better than that. I would guess(at best) he's the 4th option on most plays. Peyton's shown he likes to dump it to the RB and Stokeley besides Wayne and Marvin. That's a far cry from an O that sets out to get Shockey or Gates or Gonzo the ball
 
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Butterfingers? And there's only so many looks he will get considering he's got two clearly superior recievers ahead of him and that the Panthers are generally considered a run-first team.
for the 84th WR drafted, you gotta take some chances :shrug:
He was the 125th ranked WR according to PFR. 41 spots higher than he performed is a major risk, so much so I'd bet that's a bigger jump than any other player in the NFL/FF. 41?
 
I've always been a fan of Brooks (at least for fantasy purposes) so I'm glad to see you named him. 

Do you really see that much upside with Dallas Clark?  I agree with many of your names but Clark is a guy I don't see vast amounts of upisde to.  Before I talk about him any further, it would help to know what kind of value you think he represents.  Top 15?  Meh, can't argue.  Top 10?  Top 7?  5?  Where?
I like Clark's potential to finish in the top 8-12 range. Where I see the value is being able to wait until everyone esle drafts a TE and then picking up two of these potential guys late in the draft.
Clark is a marginal fantasy TE (good depth, decent chance to go off for a TD) unless every other TE on the roster gets hurt. Peyton always spreads the ball around to more than one TE, the historical stats support this. Bryan Fletcher, Ben Utecht... these guys will keep Clark from ever being higher than the 10-12th best TE, although he's one of the only TEs that can have a good week on one play. Over the course of a whole season, that won't help too much, because the weeks where he doesn't get that big play/short TD will kill you.
 
Galloway > Clayton next year. I would not touch Clayton unless Galloway gets hurt before my draft in the pre-season.

 
Galloway > Clayton  next year.  I would not touch Clayton unless Galloway gets hurt before my draft in the pre-season.
your first sentence might be correct. but your second one is just wrong. Clayton represents great value on draft day. clayton had a rough go of it in 05, but the kid has a ton of talent and should rebound nicely in 06. At WR39, he's a steal.
 
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Clayton represents great value on draft day.
I doubt he's much of a value. Everyone still seems to have high hopes for him. he's the kinda guy that every site will have as their "value pick" and so he'll wind up going higher
 
i still like clayton's prospects going forward for dynasty purposes...

in redraft, galloway does worry me next few years...

however old he is (didn't look up... 31-32?) he is a young early thirties...

he missed better part of two years when he held out on SEA & hurt knee in first game with DAL (did he miss time in TB, too?)...

he never worked middle of the field a lot before, & had such great speed & field awareness he rarely took big shots...

he used to be one of fastest players in the NFL, & even if he lost half step, he looks to me like a darrel green type physical specimen that will preserve a lot of speed late into career...

WRs can play at high level longer than RBs if they are special, & galloway might be (there were times in past when it seemed like he wasn't used as well as gruden did in 2005)... though i'm not sure about history of whether SPEED WRs necessarily degrade more or less gracefully...

but as clayton dynasty owner... my expectations are tempered in 2006...

also "worried" caddy is special & sucha a difference maker they run more & throw less than some of gruden's historical precedents in past... & alex smith is another young, talented downfield receiving weapon that gruden has stated wanting to get involved, which could further disperse & diffuse targets available to clayton...

* another way to look at this is galloway could help clayton... clayton was probably drawing the double teams to start last season coming off one of best rookie seasons for WR in NFL history (one of few WRs to reach 1,000 yards in past decade, with moss, boldin & terry glenn)... that almost certainly isn't the case looking forward to 2006...

& there are definitely cases where teams with two talented WRs can fluorish...

not saying galloway/clayton tandem is moss/carter, fitz/boldin or even harrison/wayne good... but they may be a lot better than many realize, if clayton is 100% physically... there could be plenty of receptions to go around, & they could surprise a lot of people...

 
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Butterfingers? And there's only so many looks he will get considering he's got two clearly superior recievers ahead of him and that the Panthers are generally considered a run-first team.
for the 84th WR drafted, you gotta take some chances :shrug:
He was the 125th ranked WR according to PFR. 41 spots higher than he performed is a major risk, so much so I'd bet that's a bigger jump than any other player in the NFL/FF. 41?
He was injured his rookie year. Last year the buzz out of the Panther's practice facility was how fast he was progressing. Don't forget that he didn't play much WR in college and was a two way player. He was good enough to make Gardner expendable and to become the number two option in the playoffs for the Panthers. WR84 puts him in the middle of the NFL's WR3s. He has more talent then most NFL WR3s. If something were to happen to Key or SS, Carter will skyrocket into a top 30 performer. I can't say that for most guys drafted this late.
 

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