injuries have a lot to do with this. last yr, in games where everyone was healthy, outside of welker, branch, gronk, hernandez, the rest of the wr had 32 targets in 12 games which comes out to only 43 targets to gaffney and the rest. in the 4 games that hernandez and branch sat out the lower end options had 17 targets which comes out to like 64 targets.
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Brandon Lloyd, WR, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jason Wood
- Start date
Warrior
Footballguy
I don't have any problem taking down Welker, Gronk and Hernandez 1 target each from last season. That leaves 8 targets...maybe 3 for Gaffney, 3 for the RBs, and 2 for the backup TE's and WR's that won't play much of a part at all in the offense.
I think there is a real danger here in assuming that because Brady distributed the ball a certain way in 2011, he will likely distribute the ball in a very similar way in 2012. If anything, we should be questioning the assumption that the NE tight ends will be receiving 237 targets again this year, because thats the huge anomaly. Prior to that, the most he threw was 141 in 2006. Now obviously he's got two hugely talented tight ends that started in 2010 with a TE total was 133 targets. Still, that means almost 80% increase in TE targets over 2010. But its also an interesting point that Hernandez was targeted more in 2010 than Gronk was- it just speaks to the volatility of Brady's targeting year to year.
Also interesting- Welker was targeted 173 times last season, which is the most Brady has ever targeted anyone in any season including Randy Moss (159 in 2007).
So we have two pretty substantial derivations from the mean. A third is that NE running backs were only targeted 58 times, which is substantially lower than the 84 times they were targeted in 2007 which was the last lowest.
Looking at Brady's spread over the years, the one thing that sticks out is how it continually evolves and changes. There are relatively few regularities even with mostly the same players (Welker's high number of targets being one, just not quite that high). I think the conclusion is that Brady will put the ball where it needs to be, not that he is interested in making sure mouths get fed. I don't doubt the TEs will have another great year, but if teams have started scheming to shut them down (which you have to believe they have), Brady is not going to force them the ball if he has quality options elsewhere.
Long story short, I think its very dangerous to take last years distribution and just tinker with it- it could be a very substantial difference in 2012.
Also interesting- Welker was targeted 173 times last season, which is the most Brady has ever targeted anyone in any season including Randy Moss (159 in 2007).
So we have two pretty substantial derivations from the mean. A third is that NE running backs were only targeted 58 times, which is substantially lower than the 84 times they were targeted in 2007 which was the last lowest.
Looking at Brady's spread over the years, the one thing that sticks out is how it continually evolves and changes. There are relatively few regularities even with mostly the same players (Welker's high number of targets being one, just not quite that high). I think the conclusion is that Brady will put the ball where it needs to be, not that he is interested in making sure mouths get fed. I don't doubt the TEs will have another great year, but if teams have started scheming to shut them down (which you have to believe they have), Brady is not going to force them the ball if he has quality options elsewhere.
Long story short, I think its very dangerous to take last years distribution and just tinker with it- it could be a very substantial difference in 2012.
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i think bolded is a really good point and the most likely outcome. however, there are legitimate reasons why lloyd will be productive and helpful to winning ff. its a pretty close situation and i would lean towards other options here but lloyd is tempting.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I think it goes without saying that Welker's targets will go down a bit, and like I said before, as good as they both are, the targets of both TEs should go down a bit as well (does anyone really think Gronk puts up over 90 catches and 18 touchdowns again?), so there should be plenty of balls for Lloyd to catch.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
We can all guess as what might happen, but Welker has seen 10 targets a game consistently in NE, so I am not so sure his targets will drop all that much. He's Brady's safety blanket, and I am not sure that will change.
tombonneau
Footballguy
This is the critical point that is being overlooked. Last year was a perfect TE storm in NE: they had two young dynamic pass catchers at TE PLUS they really had no outside WR threat when Ocho flopped. This caused Brady to work the underneath more than normal and you have the spike in Welker targets and spike in TE targets. Now with Lloyd and likely Dante/Gaffney on the outside, you are going to see outside the hash WR targets and fewer middle of the field targets.'mbuehner said:
I love Gronk but I'll be paying half the price in auction for Hernandez and will be paying half the price of Welker for Lloyd.
-jb-
Footballguy
This is what everyone needs to do:
- Take the per game target for each of Brady's weapons over the last five years.
- Develop a trend by position to determine outlying factors.
- Determine what, if any, standard deviation exists within a two year span.
- Calculate the increase in passing production league-wide to project potential variations in year-over-year production.
- Draft Brady.
- Take the per game target for each of Brady's weapons over the last five years.
- Develop a trend by position to determine outlying factors.
- Determine what, if any, standard deviation exists within a two year span.
- Calculate the increase in passing production league-wide to project potential variations in year-over-year production.
- Draft Brady.
karmarooster
Footballguy
We are all familiar with the madness of trying to predict Belichick's RBBC when he bounced around from BJGE, Ridley, Sammy Morris, Woodhead, Faulk, etc. Although BJGE carved out a roll of some consistency last year, in general the MO for the past few years is that it could (and would) change week to week according to the opposing defense.
Why should it be any different with the WRs now that they have a plethora of weapons?
Most of this thread sounds like "Well Welker is going to have a ton of targets, as always, usually 10+ a game, and we know how nasty Gronk was last year, and Hernandez is no slouch either, and they have other WRs and RBs, so there just isn't room for Lloyd" while others say "No there's room for Lloyd if you drop Welker and Gronk and Hernandez down just a target or two per game..." Either there are too many options for Lloyd to get fed, or Lloyd will get fed and the other options will decline. Maybe both of these are wrong, and Belichick/Daniels/Brady will tailor the offense each week to the opposing defense.
Are they playing a team with slow LBs who struggle to cover underneath? Then Welker and Hernandez might combine for 20+ targets.
Are they playing a team with weak safeties who struggle to cover deep? Then Gronk up the seam and Lloyd over the top.
Are they playing a team that struggles with CB depth? Then Gaffney and Stallworth might rotate in more 5 wide looks.
IMO, the writing is on the wall that Welker's targets will go down - and still be above 140. 145 in 2007 seems much more likely than the 175+ from last season. There's simply no reason to feed him the ball that many times with the weapons they have in the TEs, RBs, Lloyd and other WRs. Add in the struggles in negotiating a new deal for Welker, and it looks like this is a year that they begin to transition him out of the offense - if such can be said for someone getting 9 targets a game. I also expect the TE targets to fluctuate more, with Hernandez stepping up, and Gronk slightly falling to only 85 receptions, only 1200 yards, and only 12 TDs.
As for Lloyd, he'll be huge some weeks and quiet others. For as much as I see his upside and really want him as a WR2/3, I think there are going to be a handful of weeks that are a headache with 3/45 type games, and you'll be guessing as to which.
Why should it be any different with the WRs now that they have a plethora of weapons?
Most of this thread sounds like "Well Welker is going to have a ton of targets, as always, usually 10+ a game, and we know how nasty Gronk was last year, and Hernandez is no slouch either, and they have other WRs and RBs, so there just isn't room for Lloyd" while others say "No there's room for Lloyd if you drop Welker and Gronk and Hernandez down just a target or two per game..." Either there are too many options for Lloyd to get fed, or Lloyd will get fed and the other options will decline. Maybe both of these are wrong, and Belichick/Daniels/Brady will tailor the offense each week to the opposing defense.
Are they playing a team with slow LBs who struggle to cover underneath? Then Welker and Hernandez might combine for 20+ targets.
Are they playing a team with weak safeties who struggle to cover deep? Then Gronk up the seam and Lloyd over the top.
Are they playing a team that struggles with CB depth? Then Gaffney and Stallworth might rotate in more 5 wide looks.
IMO, the writing is on the wall that Welker's targets will go down - and still be above 140. 145 in 2007 seems much more likely than the 175+ from last season. There's simply no reason to feed him the ball that many times with the weapons they have in the TEs, RBs, Lloyd and other WRs. Add in the struggles in negotiating a new deal for Welker, and it looks like this is a year that they begin to transition him out of the offense - if such can be said for someone getting 9 targets a game. I also expect the TE targets to fluctuate more, with Hernandez stepping up, and Gronk slightly falling to only 85 receptions, only 1200 yards, and only 12 TDs.
As for Lloyd, he'll be huge some weeks and quiet others. For as much as I see his upside and really want him as a WR2/3, I think there are going to be a handful of weeks that are a headache with 3/45 type games, and you'll be guessing as to which.
tombonneau
Footballguy
So you're saying he'll be like every other WR1/2 in the league.
Point well taken, but are you gonna jot Welker down for 160 targets at age 31? I'm not arguing it- its just one of those 'i cant believe im doing it' or 'i cant believe im not doing it' situations. The Brady-Welker connection is really an astonishing thing if you think about it.'David Yudkin said:
Macdaddy_2004
Footballguy
NE will do what works - if LLoyd is open and he catches his first bomb from Brady expect that to snowball through the season.
As his floor I would put him in the range of
65/950/6
That being said I could totally see a
85/1350/8
if he and Uncle Tom click......................High reward low risk pick I like it.
As his floor I would put him in the range of
65/950/6
That being said I could totally see a
85/1350/8
if he and Uncle Tom click......................High reward low risk pick I like it.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Humor me. Please supply us with the rest of the Pats receiving corps' production if Lloyd gets what you are giving him (on the high side).Gronk ?-?-?Hernandez ?-?-?Welker ?-?-?Gaffney ?-?-?Branch ?-?-?Stallworth ?-?-?RBs ?-?-?Other WR or TE ?-?-?
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tombonneau
Footballguy
I'll take a crack at receptions as don't have time to do the YPC math right now, but if Lloyd is at 85 catches and Brady has 400 completions give or take again I could see the remaining 300 broken out as such:Gronk 70Hernandez 70Welker 90Gaffney 20Branch 10Stallworth -RBs 40Outside of the top targets the NE passing game doesn't distribute the ball that much. I don't think it's out of the ordinary to have the two WRs in the 80-90 catch range and the TEs around 70 with the bench WRs and RBs picking up a little bit here and there.I just don't think it's a stretch when you look at the top four last year:Welker 122Gronk 90Hernandez 79Branch 51TOTAL 342To assume the Top 4 targets again get the same % of the overall pie but it instead gets divvied up like this:Welker 100Lloyd 85Hernandez 80Gronk 80TOTAL 345Actually the exercise of looking at the top 4 catches is probably a lot better than trying to divide up the 400 because everyone wants to overestimate the lower players. If you instead just look at those top 4 taking the 340 Lloyd's projections in the 80 catch range are a lot more realistic.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Lloyd held of practice yesterday and today for precautionary reasons.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Overwhelmingly positive Lloyd news since OTAs:
And I left a couple out. Great discussion in this thread. Does anyone want to rework their projections?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Somewhere in the 12-25 range which makes him a solid WR2...possibly could push for top12 if the stars align or he gets a silly ypc like 20 so it only takes 60-70 balls for him to do a silly amount of damage. Word is these 2 are connecting on the bombs...that will play out and I expect Lloyd to put a hurtin' on some teams early, maybe rack up 400/4TD the first month...and then I think teams will jam him more and finally resort to a PI or Holding call rather than suffer the potential touchdown. These 2 are connecting on the long ball with regularity in practice.Overwhelmingly positive Lloyd news since OTAs:
And I left a couple out. Great discussion in this thread. Does anyone want to rework their projections?
karmarooster
Footballguy
I'm a big believer, but still think the upside is something around 110-120 targets. In the last two years, given the fact that Lloyd runs so many deep routes, his catch % is about 50%. Even considering the QB upgrade in NE, he's still going to run some deep routes and its unlikely he catches more than about 55% of targets. 120 x 55% is 66 receptions. I like a nasty YPC to stay up around 18, given that McDaniels knows how to use him deep, and that Brady throws a better deep ball than Orton. 66 receptions, 1,188 yards. TDs too unpredictable, but 10 could be possible given his deep threat and red zone, acrobatic catching ability.And I left a couple out. Great discussion in this thread. Does anyone want to rework their projections?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I don't think that has to be the ceiling either, I would expect him to hit those receptions, yds, TD could be in the 6-8 range as well, hard to predict that with accuracy. Also could rack 12-15 TD if things went right.I'm a big believer, but still think the upside is something around 110-120 targets. In the last two years, given the fact that Lloyd runs so many deep routes, his catch % is about 50%. Even considering the QB upgrade in NE, he's still going to run some deep routes and its unlikely he catches more than about 55% of targets. 120 x 55% is 66 receptions. I like a nasty YPC to stay up around 18, given that McDaniels knows how to use him deep, and that Brady throws a better deep ball than Orton. 66 receptions, 1,188 yards. TDs too unpredictable, but 10 could be possible given his deep threat and red zone, acrobatic catching ability.And I left a couple out. Great discussion in this thread. Does anyone want to rework their projections?
I think he racks up over 1000 yards and he probably does it on less than 70 catches, he is going to be boom or bust for touchdowns though. I could see him with 10 + if 7 of them are over 30 yards. I could also see him with 4 or 5 touchdowns, because as talented as he is he will be the 5th option for this team in the redzone behind, Gronk, Hernandez, Ridley/Vereen, and Welker
karmarooster
Footballguy
I don't know how you define ceiling, but I think it pretty unlikely that Lloyd goes over about 65-70 catches, barring injury to Welker. If that were to happen and he were truly featured in this offense with the TEs, 1400-1500 is possible as in Denver.
Run It Up
Footballguy
This + Gronk IMO is still there best redzone target.I think everyones targets could go down, but the only one im sure of is Hernandez.
Boston
Footballguy
I'd be real careful with thinking this (or anything when it comes to the Pats actually)...by most accounts Hernandez has been one of if not the star of the Pats camp...the kid is entering his third year and is a legit talent...he's as good a candidate as anyone to blow up and in my attempt to figure out the Pats I do have him having a big year...as I've said before the guy to have on this offense is Brady...this is as deep a group of weapons as he has ever had and if the O line protects him he is going to put up monster numbers because you know BB will not take his foot off of the gas when it comes to putting up points...
Run It Up
Footballguy
I would be thrilled if he played better.At the end of last year I really wanted the Pats to move him. Hes great and a great fit, he just has to catch the ball and hes seemingly the only patriot that has that problem.
Boston
Footballguy
The key to being successful is Brady trusting you...if he doesn't you won't see the ball and probably won't be with the team long...there's a long list of players like Galloway, Chad and others who fit this profile...Brady trusts Hernandez so he will be fine...the kid is poised for a a big year and there are rumors/gossip (please remember that part because going down that road with the Pats is always dangerous) that they plan on giving him a role somewhat similar to Welker's (should Welker leave) in this offense so that's something to keep in mind for Dynasty/Keeeper leagues...
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I stopped trying to figure out schedules but has anyone seen the Pats schedule? Outside of a week 3 trip to Baltimore and a late season home game against SF, outside of that they play nobody. These guys are going to be racking points up faster than you can count. Just seems like the stars are aligned for the entire team to leave a mark.
Banger
Footballguy
any word if their defense is going to be as close to as bad as it was last year? 5000-45 for Brady seems well within reach as crazy as that sounds.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Funny, I have been saying that for months and have taken a lot of heat for it.
Banger
Footballguy
not sure why....he's done it in the past and the stars seem aligned. Hell, I think it's pretty easy to argue his talent is much better on the receiving side now than it was then. When Brady went for 4800-50 he had Maroney/Faulk/Morris in the backfield (as good as they have now) and Moss/Welker/Stallworth/Ben Watson (TE). Moss was insane and he's clearly better than anyone currently on the roster but as far as mismatches go with their unstoppable 2 TE sets, with Welker underneath and now Lloyd over the top....I seriously don't know how anyone is going to stop this team offensively especially if their schedule looks to be as easy as it is.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I suggested Brady could be on his way to 5000+/45-50 and it was like I had 8 heads and green blood.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
You hit Brady in the face. Same way you stop any QB. As far as Lloyd is concerned, he's likely going to be the biggest disappointment based on where he's being drafted. He's clearly behind Gronk and Welker and won't be close to a first option in the red zone. I really wouldn't be surprised if he had the same stats that Branch put up last year - 50rec, 700 yards, 5tds.
Banger
Footballguy
I agree he likely won't be a 1st option in the redzone as that territory belongs to Gronk but I do think he'll have a bunch of 30+ yard TDs. Hell they were about 6 inches from one on the 1st drive of the 1st preseason game last week. I don't agree with your opinion but that's what makes FF go around.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
I realize they are all competing for targets...but they are all in totally different positions on the field and one is not necessarily behind the other.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
Welker has been Brady's goto receiver for a very long time now, he knows exactly where Brady needs him in almost all situations. That's not going to change. Gronk just had the best season any TE has ever had and creates mismatches all over the middle of the field. That's not going to change. I haven't heard of anything changing in NE regarding those 2 guys, so I think it's safe to assume, they can continue to run alot of the same offense until the league proves they can stop it.
Lloyd comes in to essentially upgrade Deion Branch's spot, without actually getting rid of Deion Branch. So not only will he not get all the snaps at that position, but the incumbent is still likely to be on the team. Don't forget about Hernandez either who I didn't even mention.
Those are ALOT of mouths to feed. Throw in the RB's who he dumps off to quite a bit and you see my complete argument.
Lloyd has only had productive years when he was the ONLY option on a team. Denver had no one when he was productive and StL had no one last year as well. So like I said all these people who are picking him in the 5-7th round will be very, very disappointed.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Same. Only 4 tough games, 3 of which I believe they have no chance losing.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
The Pats alone turn pass defenses from "tough" to "middle of the road" and those that were "middle of the road" to "easy." People should really not be worrying all that much about who NE plays.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
You think he's no better than branch?
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
Based on what?
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
What were their chances of losing to cle?
simey
Footballguy
I will be very surprised if he has the same stats that Branch put up last year. McDaniels joined at the end of the season last year, and he is one of Lloyds biggest fans. I think McDaniels will involve Lloyd in a lot of plays this season.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
3 1000 yard receiving options from 1 team - This has occurred five times in NFL history :
2008 Arizona Cardinals
Larry Fitzgerald (WR) - 1434
Anquan Boldin (WR)- 1038
Steve Breaston (WR) - 1003
*Kurt Warner as QB
2004 Indianapolis Colts
Reggie Wayne (WR)- 1210
Marvin Harrison (WR) - 1113
Brandon Stokley (WR) - 1077
*Peyton Manning at QB
1995 Atlanta Falcons
Eric Metcalf (WR) - 1,189
Bert Emanuel (WR) - 1,039
Terance Mathis (WR) - 1,039
* Jeff George at QB
1989 Washington Redskins
Were the first team to have 3 wide recievers go over 1,000 yards.
Art Monk (WR) - 1,186 86 rec
Gary Clark (WR) - 1,229 79 rec
Ricky Sanders (WR) - 1,138 80 rec
*Mark Rypien at QB
1980 San Diego Chargers
John Jefferson (WR) - 1,340
Kellen Winslow (TE) - 1,290
Charlie Joiner (WR) - 1,132
* Dan Fouts at QB
(The 1981 Chargers had three 1,000-yard receivers, yet Wes Chandler gained 857 as a member of San Diego and 285 with the New Orleans Saints)
Welker and Gronk are locks to get 1000 yards IMO. So will this be technically the 6th time for it to happen in league history or will Lloyd be mediocre fantasy wise. Yea I'm thinking not.
2008 Arizona Cardinals
Larry Fitzgerald (WR) - 1434
Anquan Boldin (WR)- 1038
Steve Breaston (WR) - 1003
*Kurt Warner as QB
2004 Indianapolis Colts
Reggie Wayne (WR)- 1210
Marvin Harrison (WR) - 1113
Brandon Stokley (WR) - 1077
*Peyton Manning at QB
1995 Atlanta Falcons
Eric Metcalf (WR) - 1,189
Bert Emanuel (WR) - 1,039
Terance Mathis (WR) - 1,039
* Jeff George at QB
1989 Washington Redskins
Were the first team to have 3 wide recievers go over 1,000 yards.
Art Monk (WR) - 1,186 86 rec
Gary Clark (WR) - 1,229 79 rec
Ricky Sanders (WR) - 1,138 80 rec
*Mark Rypien at QB
1980 San Diego Chargers
John Jefferson (WR) - 1,340
Kellen Winslow (TE) - 1,290
Charlie Joiner (WR) - 1,132
* Dan Fouts at QB
(The 1981 Chargers had three 1,000-yard receivers, yet Wes Chandler gained 857 as a member of San Diego and 285 with the New Orleans Saints)
Welker and Gronk are locks to get 1000 yards IMO. So will this be technically the 6th time for it to happen in league history or will Lloyd be mediocre fantasy wise. Yea I'm thinking not.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
If Hernandez didn't get hurt last year (910 yards), the Pats would also have been on that list. The biggest difference in comparing last year's Pats team to those "three 1,000 receiver" teams is that the Pats threw for 400-800 more yards.So if Lloyd went for 65-999-12 you wouldn't want him on your fantasy team? Lloyd is someone that could either be a wasted pick or a great value depending upon WHEN he gets drafted. If someone picks him as a fantasy WR1 in the early rounds, then they will likely be disappointed. If he falls because people think the Pats have too many options and he goes as a fantasy WR 3 (say near WR30 on draft day), I think people will get a lot of mileage from there. In drafts this year, I have seen Lloyd going all over the place, so it's not that far fetched that he could go rounds and rounds apart.
(As an aside, the 82 Chargers were in position to do it (but that was the strike year with only 9 games played) between Chandler, Winslow, and Joiner. Chandler only played in 8 games but put up 49-1032-9.)
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
I mean that's my point. You have people all over the place thinking Lloyd will put up similar stats to his Denver and Stl days when he was the only receiving option on those teams. So just looking at last year's Pats, do you really think they can improve on those numbers? I know everyone loves the rose colored glasses, but I just don't see Lloyd coming into this offense and being featured.
And obviously it's great if you are getting him at a value pick as a WR 30, but the whole debate was started based on his current ADP of 44 overall, which is just beyond insane.
44 ADP based on http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2012/12fpc_816adp.php
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Run It Up
Footballguy
Dont have the exact number, but the equation is (When the patriots play bad)/(How often the patriots play bad) and that gives you the percentage, the opponent is irrelevant.
Seriously? So other teams don't beat the Pats, they can only beat themselves...this is why all non-Patriot fans loved it when the Giants beat them twice in the Superbowl.
Run It Up
Footballguy
That's the joke.
