Brandon Lloyd, WR, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

[flc735]

3 1000 yard receiving options from 1 team - This has occurred five times in NFL history :

2008 Arizona Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald (WR) - 1434

Anquan Boldin (WR)- 1038

Steve Breaston (WR) - 1003

*Kurt Warner as QB

2004 Indianapolis Colts

Reggie Wayne (WR)- 1210

Marvin Harrison (WR) - 1113

Brandon Stokley (WR) - 1077

*Peyton Manning at QB

1995 Atlanta Falcons

Eric Metcalf (WR) - 1,189

Bert Emanuel (WR) - 1,039

Terance Mathis (WR) - 1,039

* Jeff George at QB

1989 Washington Redskins

Were the first team to have 3 wide recievers go over 1,000 yards.

Art Monk (WR) - 1,186 86 rec

Gary Clark (WR) - 1,229 79 rec

Ricky Sanders (WR) - 1,138 80 rec

*Mark Rypien at QB

1980 San Diego Chargers

John Jefferson (WR) - 1,340

Kellen Winslow (TE) - 1,290

Charlie Joiner (WR) - 1,132

* Dan Fouts at QB

(The 1981 Chargers had three 1,000-yard receivers, yet Wes Chandler gained 857 as a member of San Diego and 285 with the New Orleans Saints)

Welker and Gronk are locks to get 1000 yards IMO. So will this be technically the 6th time for it to happen in league history or will Lloyd be mediocre fantasy wise. Yea I'm thinking not.

your not adjusting for the era. in 2000, the average team passed for 3,310 yards. last year, the average team passed for 3,675 yards.that means 900 yards receiving in 2000 = 1000 yard receiving in 2011

if you do that for each year, your going to get a number that is much higher than 6

 

[David Yudkin]

I mean that's my point. You have people all over the place thinking Lloyd will put up similar stats to his Denver and Stl days when he was the only receiving option on those teams.

So just looking at last year's Pats, do you really think they can improve on those numbers? I know everyone loves the rose colored glasses, but I just don't see Lloyd coming into this offense and being featured.

And obviously it's great if you are getting him at a value pick as a WR 30, but the whole debate was started based on his current ADP of 44 overall, which is just beyond insane.

44 ADP based on http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2012/12fpc_816adp.php

Who is to say that Lloyd is the one that becomes the fourth receiving option? Hernandez was really a WR, so it's plausible that the pecking order could be Welker-Gronk-Lloyd-Hernandez. Also, if the Pats have OL issues (which they may to start the season), Gronk may be asked to block more. Then what?Alot og how any of these guys do will depend on how each person projects the team to do as a whole. If someone things they will go for 5000/50, that's more to give away than say 4000/30. I would guess that the "Big 4" in NE will get 75-80% of the total receiving proudction. How that gets chopped up is another thing.

Using the numbers I just mentioned, the first option would allow for 4000/40 to be spread out over 4 guys. The other projection would have them splitting 3200/24. That's a huge difference.

 

[Run It Up]

As lousy as he is it at (blocking that is) I think Hernandez is gonna be playing out of the backfield a lot this season.

Basically just a backfield TE/FB, expecting ~75 carries.

Never put two RBs on the field at the same time, leaves more options.

 

[12punch]

In drafts this year, I have seen Lloyd going all over the place, so it's not that far fetched that he could go rounds and rounds apart.

I've actually seen him tightly clustered in the 5th.

 

[David Yudkin]

In drafts this year, I have seen Lloyd going all over the place, so it's not that far fetched that he could go rounds and rounds apart.

I've actually seen him tightly clustered in the 5th.

I play in a lot of weird scoing systems, so that may be part of it.

 

[12punch]

in my current 10 buck mfl draft he went wr21 at 5.04 behind demaryius and wallace, and ahead of brown and austin

ffclac has him wr17 at 5.02 just ahead of wallace, brown, and demaryius

in one of my ppr leagues last year wr21 was about 70/950/6 over 16 games -- lloyd was actually wr23

people argue on here about his catches, yards, targets, etc, but I think his value boils down to td's.

60/1100/9 was wr13 in that league in total points

 

[Banger]

I stopped trying to figure out schedules but has anyone seen the Pats schedule? Outside of a week 3 trip to Baltimore and a late season home game against SF, outside of that they play nobody. These guys are going to be racking points up faster than you can count. Just seems like the stars are aligned for the entire team to leave a mark.

any word if their defense is going to be as close to as bad as it was last year? 5000-45 for Brady seems well within reach as crazy as that sounds.

Funny, I have been saying that for months and have taken a lot of heat for it.

not sure why....he's done it in the past and the stars seem aligned. Hell, I think it's pretty easy to argue his talent is much better on the receiving side now than it was then. When Brady went for 4800-50 he had Maroney/Faulk/Morris in the backfield (as good as they have now) and Moss/Welker/Stallworth/Ben Watson (TE). Moss was insane and he's clearly better than anyone currently on the roster but as far as mismatches go with their unstoppable 2 TE sets, with Welker underneath and now Lloyd over the top....I seriously don't know how anyone is going to stop this team offensively especially if their schedule looks to be as easy as it is.

You hit Brady in the face. Same way you stop any QB. As far as Lloyd is concerned, he's likely going to be the biggest disappointment based on where he's being drafted. He's clearly behind Gronk and Welker and won't be close to a first option in the red zone. I really wouldn't be surprised if he had the same stats that Branch put up last year - 50rec, 700 yards, 5tds.

I realize they are all competing for targets...but they are all in totally different positions on the field and one is not necessarily behind the other.

Welker has been Brady's goto receiver for a very long time now, he knows exactly where Brady needs him in almost all situations. That's not going to change. Gronk just had the best season any TE has ever had and creates mismatches all over the middle of the field. That's not going to change. I haven't heard of anything changing in NE regarding those 2 guys, so I think it's safe to assume, they can continue to run alot of the same offense until the league proves they can stop it.

Lloyd comes in to essentially upgrade Deion Branch's spot, without actually getting rid of Deion Branch. So not only will he not get all the snaps at that position, but the incumbent is still likely to be on the team. Don't forget about Hernandez either who I didn't even mention.

Those are ALOT of mouths to feed. Throw in the RB's who he dumps off to quite a bit and you see my complete argument.

Lloyd has only had productive years when he was the ONLY option on a team. Denver had no one when he was productive and StL had no one last year as well. So like I said all these people who are picking him in the 5-7th round will be very, very disappointed.

Things do change. Time and age changes things which is why I think the pats didn't lock up Wes long term. Brady made Wes, Wes didn't make Brady. the pats sought out Lloyd... He's followed McDaniels from team to team with tremendous results. This is not an accident.

 

[Bayhawks]

I stopped trying to figure out schedules but has anyone seen the Pats schedule? Outside of a week 3 trip to Baltimore and a late season home game against SF, outside of that they play nobody. These guys are going to be racking points up faster than you can count. Just seems like the stars are aligned for the entire team to leave a mark.

any word if their defense is going to be as close to as bad as it was last year? 5000-45 for Brady seems well within reach as crazy as that sounds.

Funny, I have been saying that for months and have taken a lot of heat for it.

not sure why....he's done it in the past and the stars seem aligned. Hell, I think it's pretty easy to argue his talent is much better on the receiving side now than it was then. When Brady went for 4800-50 he had Maroney/Faulk/Morris in the backfield (as good as they have now) and Moss/Welker/Stallworth/Ben Watson (TE). Moss was insane and he's clearly better than anyone currently on the roster but as far as mismatches go with their unstoppable 2 TE sets, with Welker underneath and now Lloyd over the top....I seriously don't know how anyone is going to stop this team offensively especially if their schedule looks to be as easy as it is.

You hit Brady in the face. Same way you stop any QB. As far as Lloyd is concerned, he's likely going to be the biggest disappointment based on where he's being drafted. He's clearly behind Gronk and Welker and won't be close to a first option in the red zone. I really wouldn't be surprised if he had the same stats that Branch put up last year - 50rec, 700 yards, 5tds.

I realize they are all competing for targets...but they are all in totally different positions on the field and one is not necessarily behind the other.

Welker has been Brady's goto receiver for a very long time now, he knows exactly where Brady needs him in almost all situations. That's not going to change. Gronk just had the best season any TE has ever had and creates mismatches all over the middle of the field. That's not going to change. I haven't heard of anything changing in NE regarding those 2 guys, so I think it's safe to assume, they can continue to run alot of the same offense until the league proves they can stop it.

Lloyd comes in to essentially upgrade Deion Branch's spot, without actually getting rid of Deion Branch. So not only will he not get all the snaps at that position, but the incumbent is still likely to be on the team. Don't forget about Hernandez either who I didn't even mention.

Those are ALOT of mouths to feed. Throw in the RB's who he dumps off to quite a bit and you see my complete argument.

Lloyd has only had productive years when he was the ONLY option on a team. Denver had no one when he was productive and StL had no one last year as well. So like I said all these people who are picking him in the 5-7th round will be very, very disappointed.

Things do change. Time and age changes things which is why I think the pats didn't lock up Wes long term. Brady made Wes, Wes didn't make Brady. the pats sought out Lloyd... He's followed McDaniels from team to team with tremendous results. This is not an accident.

I think it's more likely that the Pats didn't lock up Wes long term because of money. If Welker would have taken less money, I'd bet they'd have been happy to have locked him up long-term.That being said, I believe you are absolutely right in that Brady made Welker. But you are wrong when you say the Pats sought out Lloyd. As far as I can recall, Lloyd wanted to sign with the Pats (or rather, with McDaniels). He signed a deal that is below market-value for a top WR (only a $3M signing bonus, and his salary for this year is only $900K). And as has been posted before (I believe I did so, a LONG time ago), Welker has averaged 10 targets/game (9.97, to be exact) over his tenure in NE. When Moss was there, (and he wasn't pouting about his contract) that averaged dropped to a whopping 9.93/game. If Moss, at his peak, didn't signficantly reduce Welker's targets, it doesn't make sense to assume Lloyd will.

 

[Beerguzzler]

I stopped trying to figure out schedules but has anyone seen the Pats schedule? Outside of a week 3 trip to Baltimore and a late season home game against SF, outside of that they play nobody. These guys are going to be racking points up faster than you can count. Just seems like the stars are aligned for the entire team to leave a mark.

any word if their defense is going to be as close to as bad as it was last year? 5000-45 for Brady seems well within reach as crazy as that sounds.

Funny, I have been saying that for months and have taken a lot of heat for it.

not sure why....he's done it in the past and the stars seem aligned. Hell, I think it's pretty easy to argue his talent is much better on the receiving side now than it was then. When Brady went for 4800-50 he had Maroney/Faulk/Morris in the backfield (as good as they have now) and Moss/Welker/Stallworth/Ben Watson (TE). Moss was insane and he's clearly better than anyone currently on the roster but as far as mismatches go with their unstoppable 2 TE sets, with Welker underneath and now Lloyd over the top....I seriously don't know how anyone is going to stop this team offensively especially if their schedule looks to be as easy as it is.

You hit Brady in the face. Same way you stop any QB. As far as Lloyd is concerned, he's likely going to be the biggest disappointment based on where he's being drafted. He's clearly behind Gronk and Welker and won't be close to a first option in the red zone. I really wouldn't be surprised if he had the same stats that Branch put up last year - 50rec, 700 yards, 5tds.

I realize they are all competing for targets...but they are all in totally different positions on the field and one is not necessarily behind the other.

Welker has been Brady's goto receiver for a very long time now, he knows exactly where Brady needs him in almost all situations. That's not going to change. Gronk just had the best season any TE has ever had and creates mismatches all over the middle of the field. That's not going to change. I haven't heard of anything changing in NE regarding those 2 guys, so I think it's safe to assume, they can continue to run alot of the same offense until the league proves they can stop it.

Lloyd comes in to essentially upgrade Deion Branch's spot, without actually getting rid of Deion Branch. So not only will he not get all the snaps at that position, but the incumbent is still likely to be on the team. Don't forget about Hernandez either who I didn't even mention.

Those are ALOT of mouths to feed. Throw in the RB's who he dumps off to quite a bit and you see my complete argument.

Lloyd has only had productive years when he was the ONLY option on a team. Denver had no one when he was productive and StL had no one last year as well. So like I said all these people who are picking him in the 5-7th round will be very, very disappointed.

Things do change. Time and age changes things which is why I think the pats didn't lock up Wes long term. Brady made Wes, Wes didn't make Brady. the pats sought out Lloyd... He's followed McDaniels from team to team with tremendous results. This is not an accident.

Also not an accident they only signed him to a short term 3 year, 12 million offer.This is a recent rotoworld blurb that pretty much sums up my thoughts:

Brandon Lloyd played on 16-of-19 offensive snaps with the first-team offense in Thursday's preseason opener.

Lloyd did not catch a pass, but his usage was as expected. Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Lloyd were the only skill guys to play exactly two series. In other words, the Pats see Lloyd as one of the "top guns" on their offense.

Those are 5 mouths to feed in that offense, that doesn't take the RB's into account. It's not a difficult concept. A 5th round ADP is just ridiculous for that amount of uncertainty/inconsistency.

 

[Banger]

I stopped trying to figure out schedules but has anyone seen the Pats schedule? Outside of a week 3 trip to Baltimore and a late season home game against SF, outside of that they play nobody. These guys are going to be racking points up faster than you can count. Just seems like the stars are aligned for the entire team to leave a mark.

any word if their defense is going to be as close to as bad as it was last year? 5000-45 for Brady seems well within reach as crazy as that sounds.

Funny, I have been saying that for months and have taken a lot of heat for it.

not sure why....he's done it in the past and the stars seem aligned. Hell, I think it's pretty easy to argue his talent is much better on the receiving side now than it was then. When Brady went for 4800-50 he had Maroney/Faulk/Morris in the backfield (as good as they have now) and Moss/Welker/Stallworth/Ben Watson (TE). Moss was insane and he's clearly better than anyone currently on the roster but as far as mismatches go with their unstoppable 2 TE sets, with Welker underneath and now Lloyd over the top....I seriously don't know how anyone is going to stop this team offensively especially if their schedule looks to be as easy as it is.

You hit Brady in the face. Same way you stop any QB. As far as Lloyd is concerned, he's likely going to be the biggest disappointment based on where he's being drafted. He's clearly behind Gronk and Welker and won't be close to a first option in the red zone. I really wouldn't be surprised if he had the same stats that Branch put up last year - 50rec, 700 yards, 5tds.

I realize they are all competing for targets...but they are all in totally different positions on the field and one is not necessarily behind the other.

Welker has been Brady's goto receiver for a very long time now, he knows exactly where Brady needs him in almost all situations. That's not going to change. Gronk just had the best season any TE has ever had and creates mismatches all over the middle of the field. That's not going to change. I haven't heard of anything changing in NE regarding those 2 guys, so I think it's safe to assume, they can continue to run alot of the same offense until the league proves they can stop it.

Lloyd comes in to essentially upgrade Deion Branch's spot, without actually getting rid of Deion Branch. So not only will he not get all the snaps at that position, but the incumbent is still likely to be on the team. Don't forget about Hernandez either who I didn't even mention.

Those are ALOT of mouths to feed. Throw in the RB's who he dumps off to quite a bit and you see my complete argument.

Lloyd has only had productive years when he was the ONLY option on a team. Denver had no one when he was productive and StL had no one last year as well. So like I said all these people who are picking him in the 5-7th round will be very, very disappointed.

Things do change. Time and age changes things which is why I think the pats didn't lock up Wes long term. Brady made Wes, Wes didn't make Brady. the pats sought out Lloyd... He's followed McDaniels from team to team with tremendous results. This is not an accident.

Also not an accident they only signed him to a short term 3 year, 12 million offer.This is a recent rotoworld blurb that pretty much sums up my thoughts:

Brandon Lloyd played on 16-of-19 offensive snaps with the first-team offense in Thursday's preseason opener.

Lloyd did not catch a pass, but his usage was as expected. Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Lloyd were the only skill guys to play exactly two series. In other words, the Pats see Lloyd as one of the "top guns" on their offense.

Those are 5 mouths to feed in that offense, that doesn't take the RB's into account. It's not a difficult concept. A 5th round ADP is just ridiculous for that amount of uncertainty/inconsistency.

If you watched that game Brady under threw Lloyd and the CB made a nice play to break it up otherwise he gets a 40 yard td on their 1st drive of the preseason.

 

[12punch]

Those are 5 mouths to feed in that offense, that doesn't take the RB's into account. It's not a difficult concept. A 5th round ADP is just ridiculous for that amount of uncertainty/inconsistency.

who's the 5th mouth?

 

[flc735]

in my current 10 buck mfl draft he went wr21 at 5.04 behind demaryius and wallace, and ahead of brown and austin milesffclac has him wr17 at 5.02 just ahead of wallace, brown, and demaryiusin one of my ppr leagues last year wr21 was about 70/950/6 over 16 games -- lloyd was actually wr23people argue on here about his catches, yards, targets, etc, but I think his value boils down to td's.60/1100/9 was wr13 in that league in total points

injuries. there will be a few guys, like jennings and nicks last year who out produce that 60/1100/9 WR but finish below him due to injuries. if you think lloyd will put up those numbers, he should probably be your 15-18th wr. thats still decent value if he is going as the 21st wr, just not as good as your post suggests

 

[rascal]

Yudkin, can we see your NE projections?

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Welker had 1550 last year and Gronk 1300+ I can see those two guys regressing a bit and Lloyd picking up the slack.

Branch had 700/5 in this offence

Ochostinko - 275/1

Take 200 from Gronk and 200 From Welker, half of Branch and all of Ocho and you have 1025 yards.

Realistically Brady's TD's could go up to 45 so let's just say for the sake of argument all 6 of those goes to Lloyd, he steals 2-3 from Gronk and half of Branch's (2-3) and 1 from Welker. Plus Ocho's lone TD

1025 yards with 12-14 TD's is very doable if Brady throws for 45 TD's. The yardage seems low though if he get's 12-14 TD's most of them will be on big plays. Brady could break the record that Brees set last year.

 

[karmarooster]

I've cooled a bit on Brady, Lloyd, and all Pats in general somewhat due to the offensive line problems. They would have to be hitting on all cylinders for me to want Brady in the 1st and Lloyd in the 4th (which I did in a draft before it became apparent that the o-line is in trouble right now). Hopefully it will improve b/t no and week 1 with the return of Volmer, but until that point, you have to discount them somewhat.

 

[tombonneau]

Someone just hit the nail on the head above: I think Gronk is going to do a lot more blocking early season with how shaky the Pats OL looked. I'll be avoiding him at his value.

But i think AHern & Lloyd as the big recipients in a dip in Gronk #s. I'm actually really happy he's been quiet this preseason as I still seem him as a WR10-12 guy.

 

[Spiderman]

I think Lloyd's receptions will be down, but we'll see some big plays down the field. In most games, he'll likely be the #3 option behind Welker and Gronk and sometimes #4 with Hernandez in the mix. Even if Gronk's numbers come down some, which I think will happen, Brady will continue to use Welker as his go-to-guy, and Lloyd will have games with 3 or 4 catches, sometimes 50 or so yards, but others where he breaks a big one and has a 100 yardage game.

 

[two_dollars]

Lloyd is talented and doesn't need to learn McDaniels' offense. He was a top option in Denver with Kyle Orton chucking the rock. This isn't a washed up Ocho who had to learn an offense. If Lloyd gets open, he'll get the ball.

 

[Run It Up]

Someone just hit the nail on the head above: I think Gronk is going to do a lot more blocking early season with how shaky the Pats OL looked.

They say this every season, and its true every season, and Gronk still does better every season.2/2 so far, the trend should continue as Hernandez just isnt as good.Gronkowski led Hernandez in # of snaps by 150% in 2010 and 122% in 2011. The biggest contributor being Hernandez missing time (2 games both seasons). People bring blocking into the equation and the hilarious coincidence is even though Gronk has a significant advantage in snaps taken, a higher percentage of Hernandez' snaps are blocking assignments.Which lead to an awful lot of terrible discussion last year about who is the better blocker/receiver, when in reality its gronk in both categories hands down.Both will see an uptick in blocking duty, it just means that Gronkowski is gonna have an even bigger # of snap advantage over hernandez in which he is a target.

 

[David Yudkin]

Someone just hit the nail on the head above: I think Gronk is going to do a lot more blocking early season with how shaky the Pats OL looked.

They say this every season, and its true every season, and Gronk still does better every season.2/2 so far, the trend should continue as Hernandez just isnt as good.Gronkowski led Hernandez in # of snaps by 150% in 2010 and 122% in 2011. The biggest contributor being Hernandez missing time (2 games both seasons). People bring blocking into the equation and the hilarious coincidence is even though Gronk has a significant advantage in snaps taken, a higher percentage of Hernandez' snaps are blocking assignments.Which lead to an awful lot of terrible discussion last year about who is the better blocker/receiver, when in reality its gronk in both categories hands down.Both will see an uptick in blocking duty, it just means that Gronkowski is gonna have an even bigger # of snap advantage over hernandez.

For the most part, Hernandez is really a wide receiver. IIRC, he played 3/4 of the time out wide or in the slot (not on the line and playing upright not in a 3-point stance). I don't see Hernandez pulling a lot more line duty. In terms of targets, over the past 2 seasons, Hernandez has actually been targeted more frequently (6.9 per game for Hernandez vs. 6.3 for Gronk).

 

[Zeff]

I stopped trying to figure out schedules but has anyone seen the Pats schedule? Outside of a week 3 trip to Baltimore and a late season home game against SF, outside of that they play nobody. These guys are going to be racking points up faster than you can count. Just seems like the stars are aligned for the entire team to leave a mark.

any word if their defense is going to be as close to as bad as it was last year? 5000-45 for Brady seems well within reach as crazy as that sounds.

Funny, I have been saying that for months and have taken a lot of heat for it.

not sure why....he's done it in the past and the stars seem aligned. Hell, I think it's pretty easy to argue his talent is much better on the receiving side now than it was then. When Brady went for 4800-50 he had Maroney/Faulk/Morris in the backfield (as good as they have now) and Moss/Welker/Stallworth/Ben Watson (TE). Moss was insane and he's clearly better than anyone currently on the roster but as far as mismatches go with their unstoppable 2 TE sets, with Welker underneath and now Lloyd over the top....I seriously don't know how anyone is going to stop this team offensively especially if their schedule looks to be as easy as it is.

You hit Brady in the face. Same way you stop any QB. As far as Lloyd is concerned, he's likely going to be the biggest disappointment based on where he's being drafted. He's clearly behind Gronk and Welker and won't be close to a first option in the red zone. I really wouldn't be surprised if he had the same stats that Branch put up last year - 50rec, 700 yards, 5tds.

I realize they are all competing for targets...but they are all in totally different positions on the field and one is not necessarily behind the other.

Welker has been Brady's goto receiver for a very long time now, he knows exactly where Brady needs him in almost all situations. That's not going to change. Gronk just had the best season any TE has ever had and creates mismatches all over the middle of the field. That's not going to change. I haven't heard of anything changing in NE regarding those 2 guys, so I think it's safe to assume, they can continue to run alot of the same offense until the league proves they can stop it.

Lloyd comes in to essentially upgrade Deion Branch's spot, without actually getting rid of Deion Branch. So not only will he not get all the snaps at that position, but the incumbent is still likely to be on the team. Don't forget about Hernandez either who I didn't even mention.

Those are ALOT of mouths to feed. Throw in the RB's who he dumps off to quite a bit and you see my complete argument.

Lloyd has only had productive years when he was the ONLY option on a team. Denver had no one when he was productive and StL had no one last year as well. So like I said all these people who are picking him in the 5-7th round will be very, very disappointed.

Things do change. Time and age changes things which is why I think the pats didn't lock up Wes long term. Brady made Wes, Wes didn't make Brady. the pats sought out Lloyd... He's followed McDaniels from team to team with tremendous results. This is not an accident.

I think it's more likely that the Pats didn't lock up Wes long term because of money. If Welker would have taken less money, I'd bet they'd have been happy to have locked him up long-term.That being said, I believe you are absolutely right in that Brady made Welker. But you are wrong when you say the Pats sought out Lloyd. As far as I can recall, Lloyd wanted to sign with the Pats (or rather, with McDaniels). He signed a deal that is below market-value for a top WR (only a $3M signing bonus, and his salary for this year is only $900K). And as has been posted before (I believe I did so, a LONG time ago), Welker has averaged 10 targets/game (9.97, to be exact) over his tenure in NE. When Moss was there, (and he wasn't pouting about his contract) that averaged dropped to a whopping 9.93/game. If Moss, at his peak, didn't signficantly reduce Welker's targets, it doesn't make sense to assume Lloyd will.

When Moss was at his peak, Welker was a 27 year old at the peak of his athletic abilities. He's now into his 30's, and has a lot of mileage and injuries on his body. Sooner or later, somebody is going to cut into his looks. Makes sense that it would be a guy who is the new OC's lapdog.

 

[12punch]

When Moss was at his peak, Welker was a 27 year old at the peak of his athletic abilities. He's now into his 30's, and has a lot of mileage and injuries on his body. Sooner or later, somebody is going to cut into his looks. Makes sense that it would be a guy who is the new OC's lapdog.

he did pretty well a few years ago for the new oc.

 

[tombonneau]

Someone just hit the nail on the head above: I think Gronk is going to do a lot more blocking early season with how shaky the Pats OL looked.

They say this every season, and its true every season, and Gronk still does better every season.2/2 so far, the trend should continue as Hernandez just isnt as good.Gronkowski led Hernandez in # of snaps by 150% in 2010 and 122% in 2011. The biggest contributor being Hernandez missing time (2 games both seasons). People bring blocking into the equation and the hilarious coincidence is even though Gronk has a significant advantage in snaps taken, a higher percentage of Hernandez' snaps are blocking assignments.Which lead to an awful lot of terrible discussion last year about who is the better blocker/receiver, when in reality its gronk in both categories hands down.Both will see an uptick in blocking duty, it just means that Gronkowski is gonna have an even bigger # of snap advantage over hernandez in which he is a target.

Who says what every season?I'm just saying as a Pats homer, I have watched games where the specific game plan called for a lot of Gronk in-line blocking duty, chipping the edge for the LT or even just staying in as part of max protect packages, and in those games he is not putting up TE1 numbers. Broncos game last year comes to mind.As a Pats fan, I have *never* in the preseason said they had OL problems. Even if they look shaky they usually sort it out. But this year they haven't had 5 guys practicing together at all and haven't looked good in practice, in scrimmages, or in games, and they have a big question mark at RT if Vollmer if he is unhealthy. If Cannon has to play RT, I guarantee a TE will be helping him out a lot, and that's either gonna be Gronk or Fells/Shank.Also, I'd be very curious to see your breakout of snaps of Gronk vs. Hernanedez as far as being kept in to block. Where did you see this data? I know Mike Reiss charts snaps but usually only by formation not by player assignment.All that said I'd be shocked if Herz blocked more than Gronk but I'm just going on my own anecdotal observations I could be wrong.But if I had to go to Vegas and bet on what TE would have more catches, I'd bet on Hernandez with Gronk still getting more TDs.

 

[FF Ninja]

I didn't get to see the game, but I'm happy with his snap count (85%). He didn't get a TD, but he did lead the team in receiving yards (yes, I realize that means next to nothing considering it was just 1 game). In unrelated news, Ridley's stat line and snap count sure look awesome.

I don't have the formation numbers, but here is the snap count for Patriots WRs and TEs in 2012:95% Rob Gronkowski89% Wes Welker77% Aaron Hernandez75% Deion Branch51% other WRs (led by Ochocinco at 26%)Aaron Hernandez missed 2 games, and Branch missed 1 and sat out most of week 17. If you leave out those 4 games (weeks 3, 4, 15, and 17), then other WR drops to 37% of the snaps (led by Ochocinco at 20%).If Lloyd is on the field for 75% of the snaps (or more) like Branch was, then I think he's in good shape as a fantasy WR. If he splits those snaps with Gaffney or the other WRs, then not so much.

I think this bodes well for Lloyd. If Branch was 75% with missing one game, then that would be 80.0% in the 15 games he did play (assuming exactly 75.0% and an equal number of plays in each game) and even higher if we take out week 17.I may not have sold anyone on Lloyd in this thread, but even though I was a Welker proponent last year, I'm absolutely not taking him anywhere near WR6 this year. (I always use non-ppr ADP, btw).

2012 week 1 snap counts from the Welker spotlight:

QB Tom Brady -- 67 of 67 TE Rob Gronkowski -- 67 of 67 TE Aaron Hernandez -- 67 of 67 WR Brandon Lloyd -- 57 of 67 WR Wes Welker -- 43 of 67 RB Stevan Ridley -- 40 of 67 WR Julian Edelman -- 23 of 67 RB Danny Woodhead -- 14 of 67 TE Michael Hoomanawanui -- 10 of 67 RB Brandon Bolden -- 6 of 67 FB Lex Hilliard -- 4 of 67 FB Dan Connolly -- 2 of 67 WR Matthew Slater -- 2 of 67 WR Greg Salas -- 0 of 67

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Not bad 5 for 69 - probably they missed up on a long hookup somewhere in the stat sheet.

 

[12punch]

Well if you missed the game maybe you can see it on some highlights - he got wide open for an easy bomb td but the ball was just past him and he couldn't reel it in.

Think he led the team with 8 targets

 

[shader]

They did miss on a long pass on the first drive. But Lloyd completely mis-played it. He had a significant number of targets though. I think this was a solid first week for Lloyd fans.

 

[12punch]

And you don't have to look at ridley's stats, he's been runnin' like a beast since 2011 preseason.

He'll go in the first next year so enjoy it while it lasts

 

[Ghost Rider]

Yep, as a Lloyd owner, I am happy with that stat line for Week 1. The touchdowns will come, and the number of targets was great to see. He should be a lock for 75-1,100-7, give or take.

 

[FF Ninja]

Can't complain about 13 targets.

So 8 out of 31 targets week 1 and 13 out of 46 week 2. 27% so far. Most on the team and well on his way to the meager 120 I predicted that was met with such disdain. He just needs 7 per week from here on out.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Hernandez being out will only help Lloyd get more targets, too.

 

[Sabertooth]

What is the deal with Lloyd? He's near the likes of Tampa Mike and Andre Roberts in PPR. Is the offensive line so bad that the deep balls just don't have time to develop? Just doesn't seem to be clicking like we thought he would. I'm considering cutting bait for Amendola in a shallow league.

 

[Grahamburn]

What is the deal with Lloyd? He's near the likes of Tampa Mike and Andre Roberts in PPR. Is the offensive line so bad that the deep balls just don't have time to develop? Just doesn't seem to be clicking like we thought he would. I'm considering cutting bait for Amendola in a shallow league.

Doesn't he lead the team in targets? The big plays and TDs are coming..

 

[Banger]

What is the deal with Lloyd? He's near the likes of Tampa Mike and Andre Roberts in PPR. Is the offensive line so bad that the deep balls just don't have time to develop? Just doesn't seem to be clicking like we thought he would. I'm considering cutting bait for Amendola in a shallow league.

Doesn't he lead the team in targets? The big plays and TDs are coming..

trying to trade for him in the leagues I don't have him.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

What is the deal with Lloyd? He's near the likes of Tampa Mike and Andre Roberts in PPR. Is the offensive line so bad that the deep balls just don't have time to develop? Just doesn't seem to be clicking like we thought he would. I'm considering cutting bait for Amendola in a shallow league.

Doesn't he lead the team in targets? The big plays and TDs are coming..

Yep, and with this week in Baltimore, I can see them trying to launch one deep early to try and take the wind out of the Ravens sails...........

 

[MAC_32]

What is the deal with Lloyd? He's near the likes of Tampa Mike and Andre Roberts in PPR. Is the offensive line so bad that the deep balls just don't have time to develop? Just doesn't seem to be clicking like we thought he would. I'm considering cutting bait for Amendola in a shallow league.

Doesn't he lead the team in targets? The big plays and TDs are coming..

Yep, and with this week in Baltimore, I can see them trying to launch one deep early to try and take the wind out of the Ravens sails...........

Going to pitch offers in all of my leagues...

 

[FF Ninja]

What is the deal with Lloyd? He's near the likes of Tampa Mike and Andre Roberts in PPR. Is the offensive line so bad that the deep balls just don't have time to develop? Just doesn't seem to be clicking like we thought he would. I'm considering cutting bait for Amendola in a shallow league.

Have you watched either game? The deep passes have been there. They've just missed thus far. He could easily have 2 TDs and an extra 100 yards.It is nice to have the deep threat or the most targeted player in the NE offense. With Lloyd you've got both. His price may not be dirt cheap, but I suspect this is about as low as you can buy him all year. Do what you can to get him before Sunday.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

What is the deal with Lloyd? He's near the likes of Tampa Mike and Andre Roberts in PPR. Is the offensive line so bad that the deep balls just don't have time to develop? Just doesn't seem to be clicking like we thought he would. I'm considering cutting bait for Amendola in a shallow league.

Doesn't he lead the team in targets? The big plays and TDs are coming..

trying to trade for him in the leagues I don't have him.

Sold him last week for Frank Gore. Hope that gives you a measuring stick.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

What is the deal with Lloyd? He's near the likes of Tampa Mike and Andre Roberts in PPR. Is the offensive line so bad that the deep balls just don't have time to develop? Just doesn't seem to be clicking like we thought he would. I'm considering cutting bait for Amendola in a shallow league.

Have you watched either game? The deep passes have been there. They've just missed thus far. He could easily have 2 TDs and an extra 100 yards.It is nice to have the deep threat or the most targeted player in the NE offense. With Lloyd you've got both. His price may not be dirt cheap, but I suspect this is about as low as you can buy him all year. Do what you can to get him before Sunday.

Well I just got him......and I just realized he got 13 flippin' targets last week.13 targets in the Brady offense, yes sir I will take that.

 

[FF Ninja]

Just curious, what did you have to pay to get him?

 

[heidbrink]

Agree with the positive sentiment on Lloyd and that the TD's are due. I'm a big buyer this year. He and Gronk are the primary weapons now and one would think this is a real opportunity for Lloyd to finally get clicking with Brady. However, I'm concerned over Brandon being limited in practice all week and now is listed as Questionable (thigh). The report on Rotoworld says that "Multiple Boston beat writers believe Lloyd's injury is minor and expect him to play".

Would anybody care to chime in on the injury situation?

Do you have him in your lineups this week "with confidence"?

I'm tempted to roll a harvin, stevie or amendola out there in his place this week unless I felt better about his health.

Roto Link: http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/449/brandon-lloyd

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I have no insight on his injury, but belichick got burnt by the league years ago, and ever since then his road questionables have become highly questionable to cover his ###.

if it was me, I wouldn't worry about it, although I think you have a couple good options that I might play over a healthy lloyd.

 

[Annyong]

Got him and Beanie for Reggie Bush BEFORE week 2. Hopefully all of these targets turn into points to justify my trade this week

 

[bulger2holt]

i'm a Lloyd supporter, but I am rolling Malcolm Floyd this week instead. I am not risking a zero.

 

[heidbrink]

i'm a Lloyd supporter, but I am rolling Malcolm Floyd this week instead. I am not risking a zero.

... and being a Sunday night game you could be left screwed, blued, and tattooed wrongly figuring that BB is just playing Jedi mind tricks on us all.

 

[Annyong]

Picked up Edelman just in case Lloyd can't go

 

[jdoggydogg]

I think Lloyd is going to explode.

I don't think it's this week. But look at the targets, and look at Lloyd's vertical skills. I just can't see the Pats struggling like this for long. I think Ridley is going to help keep the heat off Brady, and it's going to result in some nice long TDs for Lloyd in the near future.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

For all the people saying the targets weren't going to be there... hes on pace for over 160

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

For all the people saying the targets weren't going to be there... hes on pace for over 160

he's also on pace for 0 td, but I agree with you.

 

[Dr. Awesome]