I tend to agree with you.
The one thing I'm unsure of is whether the Lions have been a talented underachieving team (seems to be the predominant opinion) or whether they're maybe just not that talented. If it's the former then Schwartz failed to get the talent to play to its level on the field. If it's the latter maybe Schwartz did the best he could do. After 3 or 5 years of Caldwell we'll have a better picture of what the talent level was/is.
I'm not sure why the bar would be set at .500 for Caldwell though. Seems like measuring him by a standard that didn't have to be achieved by his predecessor.
		
		
	 
They are top heavy in their talent. and unfortunately for the lions, the big contracts were Pre-Strike CBA, so the contracts are large n cumbersomeI think besides their Dline the rest of the Defense is below  league average (starters)
The Oline has 2 legit players in Reiff and Warford, besides that its below average.
The Dline depth is terrible.
After Calvin they have Nate Burleson, A UDFA of Matt staffords roommate and busts in Broyles and titus Young (man do those picks hurt) at WR
I think they let Pettigrew go, and replace him with Fauria full time this year.
Running back is deep w Bush/Bell/LeSHoure/Riddick (plus a burned 1st pick at RB in Jahvid Best)
Quality back up QB in Shaun HIll who is a FA
So really 5 core talents in Bush/Calvin/Stafford/Suh/Fairley - a few mid levels in Glover Quin, Rieff, Warford, DeAndre Levy, Tulloch
Book is still out on Ziggy
Delmas cant stay healthy
Chris Houston is their #1 CB and he's not very good
then a whole bunch of nothing
		
 
		
	 
Per the comment on the picks of WRs Young and Broyles hurting, and the burned Best pick, you prompted me to look at the DET drafting record again.After a quick look again, just a TON of whiffs with HIGH first and second round picks on skill position players. For that matter, defense, too, in the past decade, give or take a few years. This actually includes multiple regimes, but lets start with the draft record with the Millen era as the demarcation line. From 2001 to 2007, their aggregate 31-81 record and .277 record was the third worst seven year stretch in league history (STL had a 15-65 five year stretch that was one of the worst ever, another leitmotif or recurring theme was heinous drafting).
Firsts
2001 - Jeff Backus  (stellar pick by Millen standards)
2002 - Joey Harrington
2003 - Charles Rogers  (in theory this battery could stll be starring for the team if they hadn't busted, based on age)
2004 - Roy Williams and Kevin Jones
2005 - BMW
2006 - Ernie Sims (first defensive player taken in first, looked good first few years, hurt a lot, never regained that form, now in DAL)
2007 - Calvin Johnson (best thing Millen ever did for DET, even a blind nut can find a squirrel sometimes)
Seconds
2001 - Dominic Raiola and Shaun Rogers
2002 - Kalimba Edwards
2003 - Boss Bailey
2004 - Teddy Lehman
2005 - Shaun Cody
2006 - Daniel Bullocks
2007 - Drew Stanton (breaks the rigid defense in the second pattern, than reestablishing it), Ikaika Alama-Francis and Gerald Alexander
After that appallingly bad, abysmal, horror show (not a lot to show for those seven years - Calvin the only great player out of 18 first or second round picks), moving on to the post-Millen era...
Firsts
2008 - Gosder Cherilus
2009 - Matthew Stafford and Brandon Pettigrew
2010 - Ndamukong Suh (breaks from the Millen-like rigid offense in first pattern, than reestablishes) and Jahvid Best
2011 - Nick Fairley (hasn't led to the dominant DL they hoped for paired with Suh, so far)
2012 - Riley Reiff
2013 - Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah
Seconds
2008 - Jordon Dizon
2009 - Louis Delmas
2010 - none (traded for Best?)
2011 - Titus Young (also breaks the rigid defense in second pattern, tragic case) and Mikel Leshoure (bad luck with Achilles)
2012 - Ryan Broyles (drafted with a torn ACL, had a second in 2013 after beginning to return to form from the first knee injury)
2013 - Darius Slay
Better in the six seasons comprising the post-Millen era (low bar there), but still not great. Too early to judge some drafts (I think Ansah has star potential), and some bad luck (but were WRs Young and Broyles known risks for different reasons?). Not sure if Stafford, Suh and Fairley are great, call them very good, that is three of 14 first or second rounders, with Ansah having the talent to add to this. Also worth noting, picking as high as they did in the cases of Stafford, Suh and Ansah, a monkey with a dartboard should be able to pick very good to great, talented players. It is amazing Millen blew so many high first/second round picks.