Yuds, you posted projections for Lamont at his point in time, how about for Brown?
This topic has been more concentrated on Lamont thus far and I am curious as to what Chris Brown has in store. The only topics that ever really come up in regards to Brown are injuries and his up-right running style.
We all know that Brown has had his share of injuries, but can we look past that and imagine that he has a fairly healthy 2005-06 campaign so we can talk about other things pertaining to Brown, other than his injuries or style of running.
Last year, I take credit for lauching the FBG hype for Brown. The LHUCKS debates are Shark Pool folk lore, but I actually started pimping Brown in the Daily Updates as early as last April when it became clear to me that Eddie George was not going to remain a Titan.What's interesting about this particular thread is that I don't see either Brown or Jordan as the long term option at running for either team. The Titans could very easily answer which guy will be more valuable if they take one of the premier RB with their first pick.
I have not been able to follow what the Titans are thinking about Brown, but I have not heard them say that Brown will be their guy for years to come and they are totally sold on him as their featured back. When NFL franchises aren't pimping their players, I have a hard time attaching myself to them as a fantasy player.
My concern for Brown this year is that I do not have high hopes for Tennessee this season. They had to jettison multiple starters in a salary cap amputation effort, and as many others have indicated there are holes on both offense and defense to go along with potential health concerns to Steve McNair.
How this will impact Brown is a good question, and one that pre-NFL draft day is really hard to fully understand. I happen to think that if the Titans engage in an arial assault to try to combat what may very well be a porous defense, they will need oxygen to keep their defenders breathing with the heavy workload they would be subjected to.
That leads me to think that the team will try to establish the run and keep their defense off of the field. How successful they will be in that regard is where the $64,000 question arises.
Brown had 6 games with 100+ rushing yards in 11 starts. I would think that he should be in the same ballpark and would pencil him in for 90 yards rushing and 15 yards receiving on average per game.
Overall, I think the Titans may be more inclined to slip on offense and score fewer points (just a feeling--no evidence to go on), and TD may be hard to come by. To that end, I suppose Brown might be good for 0.5 TD per game played.
Combining that, that leaves us with 105 total yards and 0.5 TD per game played for Brown. That's 13.5 fantasy ppg--which would rank him in the bottom of the Top 10 if he played all 16 games.
Since my crystal ball I used for injuries is currently in the shop getting repaired, I will just take a guess that Brown will play in 13.5 games and end up with around 180-185 fantasy points. For yearend rankings, that would put him in the same bandwidth I predicted Jordan would be in.
Since Brown would be scoring similar points in fewer games, I would be more inclined to have Brown (if my numbers played out that way).
Jordan will likely play for a more potent offense than Brown will, but that could help Brown and hurt Jordan. We already know that Moss is a playmaker, and Porter has done a decent job in finding the end zone. Last year, Bennett had a handful of monster games, but who else on Tennessee is going to get in the end zone.
Long story short, I wouldn't want either of these backs as my #1 RB unlike it was a 16-team league and was assured of having a top flight QB or WR to go with them.
On paper, I think it appears that Jordan's ceiling may be higher than Brown's, but I am not sure that things will play out that way. If you do the math, not everyon on Oakland will have their production soar based on Randy Moss and a mediocre defense.
I suspect that Jordan will be hyped up the ying yang and will get drafted earlier than Brown will, so by default that would gravitate me to Brown--especially if they project out to similar numbers. I would not be shocked by late August for Jordan to be a Top 15 fantasy pick, which to me is drafting with blinders on and going on a lot of faith.
That's my 0.02 in April, my opinion my change closer to September. If the Titans draft a RB early in a few days, this whole post goes out the window . . .