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Calling out help from Sharks (2 Viewers)

I have been reading many of the arguments which prefer C. Brown and I just don't see too much merit.  If you analyze the stats, they show that Norv Turner prefers to use one back when he has one cabable of the feature role.  The Raiders are not paying Jordan 27.5 million to be in a committee.  He also uses the same back in the red zone, which just adds value to LaMont.  C. Brown is a talented back who will play in an offense which has lost one impact WR, and multiple lineman.  They are rebuilding and trying to adjust their cap situation.  The Raiders have made several dramatic moves to improve their offense, while the Titans have made several cuts that will decrease their effectiveness on offense.  Personally, I think Lamont is the type of player that can dominate a game, and he is in a perfect situation.  I think this is a no brainer:  Lamont will dominate C. Brown statistically.  I also don't usually quote others' opinions and specifically argue with them, but after reading posts from Fridayfrenzy, I must come to the conclusion that he has no forsight.  Honestly, stating that the Raiders only ran the ball 320 times last year, and using that as a reason that Lamont won't get a lot of carries, is a terrible argument.  First of all, they had no effective player running the ball, and secondly, they were behind the majority of the time.  I hate to be this deliberate, but when predicting a player's effectiveness next year, you must not only take into account his skill and talent, but also how his AND the team's situation has changed.  You must come with a better argument than, "Well they didn't run a lot last year, so..."  Also, those of you that say I am only defending Lamont due to the fact that I have him are partially right.  However, I do have him for a reason.  If I did not think he was going to have a great season, I would not defend him on this board, but instead try to move him...
I think you are placing too much emphasis on what Lamont will bring to the running game. The difference maker is Moss and I understand that, but bringing in the best WR in the game is not going to catapault your carries from the worst to top 10. I know they didn't have stellar RBs last year, but a large part about not running last year was the O-line, system and having to air out the ball in an attempt to keep games close. Not one of those things has changed to this year. The defense on paper has actually gotten worst which is not a good thing when you are playing offensive teams such as San Diego, KC and Denver twice a year.I also understand that bringing in an elite WR will help the offense and help move the chains but that also means they will pass that much more as well. Everyone brings up how much Lamont was signed for...well how much was Moss signed for, HE is their offense, not Lamont. How many teams bring in one of the best WRs in the game to make their free agent RB their offense? Oakland was 4th overall in PASS attempts so it is not like defenses were stacking the box against the run tlast year. To say the Oakland running game was ineffective due solely to the RBs is being quite naiive. Good running teams are built around O-lines and systems, not necessarily who is running the ball in the backfield. And that brings me to another reason why I think Lamont is over-rated. The Jets have a good O-line and great running system and that paired with the fact that Lamont amassed his stats in 4th quarters and against weak defenses (which is FACT by the way, and I have the stats to prove it) makes Lamont look that much better. Lamont Jordan coming to Oakland is not a huge boost to their running game by any means. He is a better RB, but what makes a good running game is the O-line and system, not just the back. Their O-line, system and defense have all stayed the same. I am positive that the Raiders offense will be better due to Moss coming in, but with that being said it is not going to be a huge boost that will catapault Lamont into top 10 stardom. And please don't bring up the argument about Moss keeping defenses honest, cause all of last year defenses were playing the pass the whole time anyways, so nothing will change in that regard.Add all of that with people disregarding Zereoue's presence in the receiving backfield and Crockett on the goal line and I have a hard time projecting Lamont in the top 10 like alot of people are doing. Lamont is not a better blocking/receiving back than Zereoue and I don't care how much Lamont makes, cause there are better and more expensive RBs who get pulled on passing downs. Their isn't a rule about if you make 5 million as a Rb then you will also be in on 3rd downs, they will play whoever is more skilled in that area, regardless how much they make. Crockett is also thought of as one of the best goalline backs in the league, and he will still get his touches on the goalline as well. I read a post a while back about the Raiders signing the FB that is specifically used to block for Crockett on goal line situations, so that isn't a good sign for Lamont lovers.There are WAY too many questions marks about Lamont for me to project him in the top 10, and those that are projecting Lamont in the top 10 are adding their wishes in with their projections.
When did this become a thread about Lamont finishing inside the top 10? I thought it was about Lamont finishing with more fantasy points than Chris Brown.Most of your points are valid Friday, or at least you put some thought into them, but the one that jumps out to me is your assesment of the o-line. I know they haven't added any bodies but don't you think it is possible that Robert Gallery and Jake Grove might actually improve in their sophmore seasons? I mean are skill position players the only ones who make improvements in their game? We are talking about the best center and the best left tackle in last years draft. I think a year of seasoning will only make the unit as a whole better.Oh and pretty much everything you say about why Jordan wont be top 10 can be applied to Brown except Brown doesn't have the benefit of Randy Moss and he is fragile as a China-doll.Lamont > Brown
 
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Since I LOVE to stir the pot . . .Here are the statistical pass to run breakdowns for all the teams that Turner has either been OC or coached outright.Year, Team, Pass Attempts, Rush Attempts, Ratio1985: Rams 403/503 (44%/56%)1986: Rams 403/578 (41%/59%)1987: Rams 420/512 (45%/55%)1988: Rams 522/507 (51%/49%)1989: Rams 523/472 (52%/48%)1990: Rams 561/422 (57%/43%)1991: Cowboys 500/433 (54%/46%)1992: Cowboys 491/500 ((50%/50%)1993: Cowboys 475/490 (49%/51%)1994: Redskins 546/407 (57%/43%)1995: Redskins 521/469 (53%/47%)1996: Redskins 471/467(50%/50%)1997: Redskins 547/453 (55%/45%)1998: Redskins 565/401(58%/42%)1999: Redskins 537/463 (54%/46%)2000: Redskins 560/446 (56%/44%)2001: Chargers 548/435 (56%/44%)2002: Dolphins 455/530 (46%/54%)2003: Dolphins 450/487 (48%/52%)2004: Raiders 582/328 (64%/36%)Hmmm . . . which one of those is not like any other? DING-DING-DING!!!If you answered "2004 Raiders," you would be correct. Last year was SO FAR REMOVED from any other Turner coached team that I would have to conclude that the same ratio will not occur again, nor will the Raiders likely only have 328 rushing attempts. However, all teams are different, and maybe the Raiders will again be airing it out like the Fouts-era Chargers . . .

 
In my mind the biggest downside to L. Jordan is Zack Crockett.I think that Jordan will flourish in N. Turner's running-back friendly system. However, inside the 5 yard line Zack Crockett is getting all the TD's.This will be like Staley and Bettis (until Staley got injured) with Jordan getting 22 carries for 115 yards and Zack getting 4 carries for 3 yards and two TD's.

 
In my mind the biggest downside to L. Jordan is Zack Crockett.

I think that Jordan will flourish in N. Turner's running-back friendly system. However, inside the 5 yard line Zack Crockett is getting all the TD's.

This will be like Staley and Bettis (until Staley got injured) with Jordan getting 22 carries for 115 yards and Zack getting 4 carries for 3 yards and two TD's.
Crockett had 2 TD last year. When has Turner ever used a goal line specialist before?
 
In my mind the biggest downside to L. Jordan is Zack Crockett.

I think that Jordan will flourish in N. Turner's running-back friendly system. However, inside the 5 yard line Zack Crockett is getting all the TD's.

This will be like Staley and Bettis (until Staley got injured) with Jordan getting 22 carries for 115 yards and Zack getting 4 carries for 3 yards and two TD's.
I think Jordan's biggest goal line threat will be Randy Moss.
 
If you answered "2004 Raiders," you would be correct. Last year was SO FAR REMOVED from any other Turner coached team that I would have to conclude that the same ratio will not occur again, nor will the Raiders likely only have 328 rushing attempts. However, all teams are different, and maybe the Raiders will again be airing it out like the Fouts-era Chargers . . .
There is nothing that has changed in the offseason to show me that Turner will be able to go back to his old pass/run ratios.Signing one of the best WRs in the game and worsening your defense does not show me that he will step back to his old pass/run ratios. I do not think that they will maintain the same ratio as last year cause that is pretty high, but I find it hard to see that Turner will go back to his old ways of pounding the ball. Well see though.

I'm predicting a 58 pass/ 42 run

 
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There is nothing that has changed in the offseason to show me that Turner will be able to go back to his old pass/run ratios.Signing one of the best WRs in the game and worsening your defense does not show me that he will step back to his old pass/run ratios. I do not think that they will maintain the same ratio as last year cause that is pretty high, but I find it hard to see that Turner will go back to his old ways of pounding the ball. Well see though. I'm predicting a 58 pass/ 42 run.
Even 58/42 would yield around 60 additional rushing attempts on the season. That in itself would be close to 250 more rushing yards.To put things into perspective, the Raiders 328 rushing attempts were the fewest in the league since the 1999 expansion Browns and the lowest total for a non-expansion team since the 1992 Falcons only had 322 rushing attempts.
 
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I'm predicting a 58 pass/ 42 run
Okay then. So let's assume that they run the exact number of plays as last season, conservative considering the offensive improvements but that's okay, that means they will run 382 times. You don't see Lamont getting the lion's share of those carries? Using your arguments, Zeroue is the pass catching guy and Crockett is the short yardage guy and even though Norv has never been a RBBC guy, by choice, maybe Fargas gets some touches. Do you think Lamont can get 280 of those 382 carries? Maybe throw in 15-20 catches and you got a 300 touch running back. That should be enough for him to outperform Brown.Yup I'll stick withLamont > BrownPreemptive edit: Damn you're quick Yuds.
 
There is nothing that has changed in the offseason to show me that Turner will be able to go back to his old pass/run ratios.

Signing one of the best WRs in the game and worsening your defense does not show me that he will step back to his old pass/run ratios. I do not think that they will maintain the same ratio as last year cause that is pretty high, but I find it hard to see that Turner will go back to his old ways of pounding the ball. Well see though.

I'm predicting a 58 pass/ 42 run.
Even 58/42 would yield around 60 additional rushing attempts on the season. That in itself would be close to 250 more rushing yards.To put things into perspective, the Raiders 328 rushing attempts were the fewest in the league since the 1999 expansion Browns and the lowest total for a non-expansion team since the 1992 Falcons only had 322 rushing attempts.
250 more TEAM rushing yards, so lets say for argument sake that Lamont would get 75% of the rushing yards of the team (I am not sure what feature backs get).Thats about 1175 rushing yards for Lamont.

 
There is nothing that has changed in the offseason to show me that Turner will be able to go back to his old pass/run ratios.

Signing one of the best WRs in the game and worsening your defense does not show me that he will step back to his old pass/run ratios. I do not think that they will maintain the same ratio as last year cause that is pretty high, but I find it hard to see that Turner will go back to his old ways of pounding the ball. Well see though.

I'm predicting a 58 pass/ 42 run.
Even 58/42 would yield around 60 additional rushing attempts on the season. That in itself would be close to 250 more rushing yards.To put things into perspective, the Raiders 328 rushing attempts were the fewest in the league since the 1999 expansion Browns and the lowest total for a non-expansion team since the 1992 Falcons only had 322 rushing attempts.
Yuds the stat machine :thumbup: always trying to put practicality into debates. I love it.
 
There is nothing that has changed in the offseason to show me that Turner will  be able to go back to his old pass/run ratios.

Signing one of the best WRs in the game and worsening your defense does not show me that he will step back to his old pass/run ratios.  I do not think that they will maintain the same ratio as last year cause that is pretty high, but I find it hard to see that Turner will go back to his old ways of pounding the ball.  Well see though. 

I'm predicting a 58 pass/ 42 run.
Even 58/42 would yield around 60 additional rushing attempts on the season. That in itself would be close to 250 more rushing yards.To put things into perspective, the Raiders 328 rushing attempts were the fewest in the league since the 1999 expansion Browns and the lowest total for a non-expansion team since the 1992 Falcons only had 322 rushing attempts.
250 more TEAM rushing yards, so lets say for argument sake that Lamont would get 75% of the rushing yards of the team (I am not sure what feature backs get).Thats about 1175 rushing yards for Lamont.
For the record, I am not a Jordan backer, and I also am not trying to take pot shots at you or anyone else.Here are the % yardage breakdowns for Turner's RB in the past. Again, the Raiders are a different animal than the other teams, but it might give us an idea as to what tendancies Turner has utilized in the past . . .

1985: Eric Dickerson 60%

1986: Eric Dickerson 74%

1987: Charles White 66%

1988: Greg Bell 61%

1989: Greg Bell 60%

1990: Cleveland Gary 50%

1991: Emmitt Smith 91%

1992: Emmitt Smith 81%

1993: Emmitt Smith 69%

1994: Ricky Ervins 46%

1995: Terry Allen 67%

1996: Terry Allen 71%

1997: Terry Allen 45%

1998: Terry Allen 42%

1999: Stephen Davis 69%

2000: Stephen Davis 71%

2001: LaDainian Tomlinson 73%

2002: Ricky Williams 74%

2003: Ricky Williams 76%

2004: Amos Zereoue 33%

I will add that those numbers included a decent amount of rushing from the QBs, which I will suggest Collins WILL NOT be doing much of in 2005, so that's another 200+ yards that would be allocated to RB that other teams would burn on QB.

IMO, the key issues involving Jordan are:

- How many times will the Raiders rush the ball this year?

- How do they plan on getting the ball in to the end zone?

- Will they abandon the run if they get behind?

If there are accurate answers to those questions, then the chance of coming up with a projection for Jordan would get much clearer.

 
There is nothing that has changed in the offseason to show me that Turner will  be able to go back to his old pass/run ratios.

Signing one of the best WRs in the game and worsening your defense does not show me that he will step back to his old pass/run ratios.  I do not think that they will maintain the same ratio as last year cause that is pretty high, but I find it hard to see that Turner will go back to his old ways of pounding the ball.  Well see though. 

I'm predicting a 58 pass/ 42 run.
Even 58/42 would yield around 60 additional rushing attempts on the season. That in itself would be close to 250 more rushing yards.To put things into perspective, the Raiders 328 rushing attempts were the fewest in the league since the 1999 expansion Browns and the lowest total for a non-expansion team since the 1992 Falcons only had 322 rushing attempts.
250 more TEAM rushing yards, so lets say for argument sake that Lamont would get 75% of the rushing yards of the team (I am not sure what feature backs get).Thats about 1175 rushing yards for Lamont.
For the record, I am not a Jordan backer, and I also am not trying to take pot shots at you or anyone else.Here are the % yardage breakdowns for Turner's RB in the past. Again, the Raiders are a different animal than the other teams, but it might give us an idea as to what tendancies Turner has utilized in the past . . .

1985: Eric Dickerson 60%

1986: Eric Dickerson 74%

1987: Charles White 66%

1988: Greg Bell 61%

1989: Greg Bell 60%

1990: Cleveland Gary 50%

1991: Emmitt Smith 91%

1992: Emmitt Smith 81%

1993: Emmitt Smith 69%

1994: Ricky Ervins 46%

1995: Terry Allen 67%

1996: Terry Allen 71%

1997: Terry Allen 45%

1998: Terry Allen 42%

1999: Stephen Davis 69%

2000: Stephen Davis 71%

2001: LaDainian Tomlinson 73%

2002: Ricky Williams 74%

2003: Ricky Williams 76%

2004: Amos Zereoue 33%

I will add that those numbers included a decent amount of rushing from the QBs, which I will suggest Collins WILL NOT be doing much of in 2005, so that's another 200+ yards that would be allocated to RB that other teams would burn on QB.

IMO, the key issues involving Jordan are:

- How many times will the Raiders rush the ball this year?

- How do they plan on getting the ball in to the end zone?

- Will they abandon the run if they get behind?

If there are accurate answers to those questions, then the chance of coming up with a projection for Jordan would get much clearer.
Yudkin, I love your stats to help with projections and comparing prior years, but you have yet to really say what you have Lamont projected as. I am not sure if you like to stay out of arguments and just add stats to keep them going but what do you see in store for Lamont stats wise at this early point in the offseason. I'm sure after compiling all that data in regards to Lamont/Turner/Raiders that you have some sort of opinion on how well/poor Lamont will do next season. I value your input and I'd like to hear your own opinion and reasonings. I know its still early and things may change, but with all the info you have now, offer your opinion.

 
Here's what I guesstimated in another thread as far as Oakland as a teamReceiving Yards:WRMoss 1200/10Porter 900/6Curry 500/2Gabriel 300/1Other WR 200/2RBJordan 250/2Other RB 250/2TEAll TE 500/4Total: 4100/29(Say 575 passing attempts)Rushing YardsJordan 260/1100/7Zereoue 40/160/1Crockett 50/200/4Fargas 40/175/1Collins 20/50/0Total Rushing: 410/1685/13Total Passing: 575/4100/29Total Offense: 985/5785/42Compared to 2004: 910/5314/31With 1350/9 combined, that would put Jordan around the #15-#17 RB. However, with the cluster of guys in the teens, he could easily jump up or down a few spots with very little variation in those numbers.From what I have actually seen of Jordan play, I was not all that impressed. He either went down easily in a ball of dust or got gift yards from a team looking pass on either 3rd down, garbage time, or at the end of halves/games. So from a talent perspective, I have not been "wowed" up until now.I also am not a huge follower of Collins, and I wonder if the Raiders will be looking at 3rd and 10 a lot. If so, that can't help Jodan's cause any. From what I've seen about Collins, he was either streaky hot or streaky cold. So he would miss a lot of passes and rack up some incompletions and then would start hitting on several in a row. I also don't see that helping the running game, either.I could be way off base on all of this and could retool these numbers a bit by the regular season, but I have a hard time seeing Jodan at this point being more than average.

 
Here's what I guesstimated in another thread as far as Oakland as a team

Receiving Yards:

WR

Moss 1200/10

Porter 900/6

Curry 500/2

Gabriel 300/1

Other WR 200/2

RB

Jordan 250/2

Other RB 250/2

TE

All TE 500/4

Total: 4100/29

(Say 575 passing attempts)

Rushing Yards

Jordan 260/1100/7

Zereoue 40/160/1

Crockett 50/200/4

Fargas 40/175/1

Collins 20/50/0

Total Rushing: 410/1685/13

Total Passing: 575/4100/29

Total Offense: 985/5785/42

Compared to 2004: 910/5314/31

With 1350/9 combined, that would put Jordan around the #15-#17 RB. However, with the cluster of guys in the teens, he could easily jump up or down a few spots with very little variation in those numbers.

From what I have actually seen of Jordan play, I was not all that impressed. He either went down easily in a ball of dust or got gift yards from a team looking pass on either 3rd down, garbage time, or at the end of halves/games. So from a talent perspective, I have not been "wowed" up until now.

I also am not a huge follower of Collins, and I wonder if the Raiders will be looking at 3rd and 10 a lot. If so, that can't help Jodan's cause any. From what I've seen about Collins, he was either streaky hot or streaky cold. So he would miss a lot of passes and rack up some incompletions and then would start hitting on several in a row. I also don't see that helping the running game, either.

I could be way off base on all of this and could retool these numbers a bit by the regular season, but I have a hard time seeing Jodan at this point being more than average.
That is great stuff Yuds. It is insightful and intelligent breakdowns like that are why you are quickly becoming my fav staff member.
 
Here's what I guesstimated in another thread as far as Oakland as a team

Receiving Yards:

WR

Moss 1200/10

Porter 900/6

Curry 500/2

Gabriel 300/1

Other WR 200/2

RB

Jordan 250/2

Other RB 250/2

TE

All TE 500/4

Total: 4100/29

(Say 575 passing attempts)

Rushing Yards

Jordan 260/1100/7

Zereoue 40/160/1

Crockett 50/200/4

Fargas 40/175/1

Collins 20/50/0

Total Rushing: 410/1685/13

Total Passing: 575/4100/29

Total Offense: 985/5785/42

Compared to 2004: 910/5314/31

With 1350/9 combined, that would put Jordan around the #15-#17 RB. However, with the cluster of guys in the teens, he could easily jump up or down a few spots with very little variation in those numbers.

From what I have actually seen of Jordan play, I was not all that impressed. He either went down easily in a ball of dust or got gift yards from a team looking pass on either 3rd down, garbage time, or at the end of halves/games. So from a talent perspective, I have not been "wowed" up until now.

I also am not a huge follower of Collins, and I wonder if the Raiders will be looking at 3rd and 10 a lot. If so, that can't help Jodan's cause any. From what I've seen about Collins, he was either streaky hot or streaky cold. So he would miss a lot of passes and rack up some incompletions and then would start hitting on several in a row. I also don't see that helping the running game, either.

I could be way off base on all of this and could retool these numbers a bit by the regular season, but I have a hard time seeing Jodan at this point being more than average.
Very fair predictions for L. Jordan for sure, and like Friday said, I apprecaite your insight and stats you offer in your posts Yuds.1350/9 is very fair, but it is not way out of line to see him getting more rushing yards, and definitely more reciveing yards this up coming season. Also, add a couple more TD's and he could finish in the 7-12 area for RB's as well. If he is the RB on those reciving plays which I am assuming him to be then he will get more recieving yards then 250 easily. Zeroue the leading recieving back on Oak last season had 39 receptions for 284 yds so I see that as the very minimal amount of Recieving yards L. Jordan would finish with and I am guessing more around the 50/ 400yds range. You may think this is high but Oak RB's last season contributed for exactly 700 yds recieving with 101 receptions:

A.Zeroue: 39/284

J.R. Redmond: 32/233

Z. Crockett: 16/87

Fargas: 11/68

L. Heterington 3/28

There fore I don't see 50/400 being that high of a numbe for L. Jordan to get even if other RB's get some recieving plays as well.

 
1350/9 is very fair, but it is not way out of line to see him getting more rushing yards, and definitely more reciveing yards this up coming season. Also, add a couple more TD's and he could finish in the 7-12 area for RB's as well. If he is the RB on those reciving plays which I am assuming him to be then he will get more recieving yards then 250 easily. Zeroue the leading recieving back on Oak last season had 39 receptions for 284 yds so I see that as the very minimal amount of Recieving yards L. Jordan would finish with and I am guessing more around the 50/ 400yds range. You may think this is high but Oak RB's last season contributed for exactly 700 yds recieving with 101 receptions:

A.Zeroue: 39/284

J.R. Redmond: 32/233

Z. Crockett: 16/87

Fargas: 11/68

L. Heterington 3/28

There fore I don't see 50/400 being that high of a number for L. Jordan to get even if other RB's get some recieving plays as well.
There is also the chance that he gets less rushing yards and receiving yards. These are projections, anything can happen, but we all try to project probable numbers. While its not out of the question that Lamont could amass better stats than Yuds has predicted, its also not out of the question to see worse stats. You can put any spin on Lamont and project high or low numbers because there are so many question marks surrounding his production.50/400 receiving.....again, not out of the question cause anything can happen, but not very probable. To project Lamont attaining that as if it is "most likely to happen", what projections are, is wishful thinking. Chris Brown rushing for 2000 yards isn't out of the question, but it is not probable and not an intelligent projection.

Your entire post above deals with yuo saying how it CAN happen, but thats doesn't mean that its likely too. What CAN happen and what are LIKELY are two different things, what CAN happen is not a projection.

 
Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.

 
Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.

I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.
Compare that to A. Zereoue who has 136 receptions in 81 regular season games and 121 receptions in the last 3 years.
 
1350/9 is very fair, but it is not way out of line to see him getting more rushing yards, and definitely more reciveing yards this up coming season. Also, add a couple more TD's and he could finish in the 7-12 area for RB's as well. If he is the RB on those reciving plays which I am assuming him to be then he will get more recieving yards then 250 easily. Zeroue the leading recieving back on Oak last season had 39 receptions for 284 yds so I see that as the very minimal amount of Recieving yards L. Jordan would finish with and I am guessing more around the 50/ 400yds range. You may think this is high but Oak RB's last season contributed for exactly 700 yds recieving with 101 receptions:

A.Zeroue: 39/284

J.R. Redmond: 32/233

Z. Crockett: 16/87

Fargas: 11/68

L. Heterington 3/28

There fore I don't see 50/400 being that high of a numbe for L. Jordan to get even if other RB's get some recieving plays as well.
Redmond, Crockett and Heterington are all FULLBACKS and should not be included in receptions for the Tailbacks. Last year the Tailbacks got 65 receptions as a TEAM (Zereoue- 39, Wheatley- 15, Fargas- 11). Fargas and Zereoue are still on the team and will get their share, so Lamont getting 50 receptions is kind of a pipe dream. It "could" happen but the probability is low.

 
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1350/9 is very fair, but it is not way out of line to see him getting more rushing yards, and definitely more reciveing yards this up coming season. Also, add a couple more TD's and he could finish in the 7-12 area for RB's as well. If he is the RB on those reciving plays which I am assuming him to be then he will get more recieving yards then 250 easily. Zeroue the leading recieving back on Oak last season had 39 receptions for 284 yds so I see that as the very minimal amount of Recieving yards L. Jordan would finish with and I am guessing more around the 50/ 400yds range. You may think this is high but Oak RB's last season contributed for exactly 700 yds recieving with 101 receptions:

A.Zeroue: 39/284

J.R. Redmond: 32/233

Z. Crockett: 16/87

Fargas: 11/68

L. Heterington 3/28

There fore I don't see 50/400 being that high of a numbe for L. Jordan to get even if other RB's get some recieving plays as well.
Redmond, Crockett and Heterington are all FULLBACKS and should not be included in receptions for the Tailbacks. Last year the Tailbacks got 65 receptions as a TEAM (Zereoue- 39, Wheatley- 15, Fargas- 11). Fargas and Zereoue are still on the team and will get their share, so Lamont getting 50 receptions is kind of a pipe dream. It "could" happen but the probability is low.
So let me get this straight, you have stated before that Z. Crocket is a great goal line back and will get those and now you are saying Zeroue and Fargas are still on the team and will get their share. So really they have brought in L. Jordan to be involved involved in another cluster **** of RB's. :no: Redmond and Crockett (both should be fullbacks) but played Tailback at times last season for Oakland because of their terrible RB situation so they have to be considered in the stats for receptions coming out of the backfield.

 
Last year was SO FAR REMOVED from any other Turner coached team that I would have to conclude that the same ratio will not occur again, nor will the Raiders likely only have 328 rushing attempts. However, all teams are different, and maybe the Raiders will again be airing it out like the Fouts-era Chargers . . .
Those numbers are controlled far more by score during the game than any other factor - if Turner's '05 Raiders fall behind as often as Turner's '04 Raiders did, he'll throw for nearly the same percentage, esp. with Colins/Porter/Moss and an owner who is perfectly happy with three shots downfield as an offensive series.
 
I'm predicting a 58 pass/ 42 run
Okay then. So let's assume that they run the exact number of plays as last season, conservative considering the offensive improvements but that's okay, that means they will run 382 times. You don't see Lamont getting the lion's share of those carries? Using your arguments, Zeroue is the pass catching guy and Crockett is the short yardage guy and even though Norv has never been a RBBC guy, by choice, maybe Fargas gets some touches. Do you think Lamont can get 280 of those 382 carries? Maybe throw in 15-20 catches and you got a 300 touch running back. That should be enough for him to outperform Brown.Yup I'll stick with

Lamont > Brown

Preemptive edit: Damn you're quick Yuds.
Is your prediction based on the fact that a Jordon getting 300-ish carries will exceed Brown no matter what or on the fact that Brown is likely to miss a bunch of time?
 
I am not sure if you like to stay out of arguments and just add stats to keep them going
dingdingdingdingding!!!(Earlier David admitted he likes to stir the pot and threw stats out - you'll see a lot of the FBGuys staff doing that here in the Pool)
 
Rushing Yards

Jordan 260/1100/7
That's the only number in the entire prediction I disagree with when combined with 2 receiving TDs. I don't see Jordon responsible for 9 TDs with Crockett, Moss, the rest of the Raiders' O, and the defenses the Raiders face. I give him 6 or 7 rushing TDs and none on the receiving end.

 
Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.

I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.
My argument all along in receiving numbers with Jordan for the Raiders has been that they will use Amos much more in the receiving game than Jordan - Zereoue, for all his faults, can't list receiving ability as one of them.
 
Last year was SO FAR REMOVED from any other Turner coached team that I would have to conclude that the same ratio will not occur again, nor will the Raiders likely only have 328 rushing attempts.  However, all teams are different, and maybe the Raiders will again be airing it out like the Fouts-era Chargers . . .
Those numbers are controlled far more by score during the game than any other factor - if Turner's '05 Raiders fall behind as often as Turner's '04 Raiders did, he'll throw for nearly the same percentage, esp. with Colins/Porter/Moss and an owner who is perfectly happy with three shots downfield as an offensive series.
I am starting to feel that teams with poor defenses may or may not pass more than others and there is no sure fire indicator in either direction. In theory, teams would want to run more to keep the ball away from the other team and give their own defense a rest. I would think that the extra passing would occur in the 4th quarter if the team really was behind--but that would also yield an environment conducive to running the ball some as well.The 1994 Redskins were probably worse than the 2004 Raiders--and even they had 407 rushing attempts.

The Raiders last year were a very rare team in their limited number of rushing attempts. I think it would be even a rarer feat for them to repeat it.

 
Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.

I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.
My argument all along in receiving numbers with Jordan for the Raiders has been that they will use Amos much more in the receiving game than Jordan - Zereoue, for all his faults, can't list receiving ability as one of them.
It is hard to say how much Zeroue will be utilized this up coming year. Even if Zeroue does get recieving yards you can't ignore the fact (full backs included) Oak had 101 receptions coming out of the backfield for 700 yds. Give 400 to Jordan, 200 to Zeroue, and give 100 to any of the fullback Crocket...etc. Turner will put the guy in there that can make plays, and right now all signs point to L. Jordan. I could post the quote again of Turner saying Jordan has ALL the neccessaties of a great reiciever including recieving out of the backfield.
 
Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.

I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.
My argument all along in receiving numbers with Jordan for the Raiders has been that they will use Amos much more in the receiving game than Jordan - Zereoue, for all his faults, can't list receiving ability as one of them.
It is hard to say how much Zeroue will be utilized this up coming year. Even if Zeroue does get recieving yards you can't ignore the fact (full backs included) Oak had 101 receptions coming out of the backfield for 700 yds. Give 400 to Jordan, 200 to Zeroue, and give 100 to any of the fullback Crocket...etc. Turner will put the guy in there that can make plays, and right now all signs point to L. Jordan. I could post the quote again of Turner saying Jordan has ALL the neccessaties of a great reiciever including recieving out of the backfield.
Besides coach speak, there is nothing to point out that Lamont is a good receiver, both from stats and from playing time for the Jets. Lamont is NOT a better receiver than Zereoue and hence why Zereoue will get a large portion of the RB receptions compared to his playing time. The Raiders appear to have a higher number of backfield receptions than the average team and my guess is due to a combination of a poor running game and playing from behind. So if the running attack is better, which I am assuing it will be, then you will see less receptions for the Raiders RBs, and more carries. When the Raiders are down by a few scores, you will see Zereoue in the backfield more than you normally would.

Again, 50 receptions is not out of the question, but its not a smart projection as if its likely to happen.

 
Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.

I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.
My argument all along in receiving numbers with Jordan for the Raiders has been that they will use Amos much more in the receiving game than Jordan - Zereoue, for all his faults, can't list receiving ability as one of them.
It is hard to say how much Zeroue will be utilized this up coming year. Even if Zeroue does get recieving yards you can't ignore the fact (full backs included) Oak had 101 receptions coming out of the backfield for 700 yds. Give 400 to Jordan, 200 to Zeroue, and give 100 to any of the fullback Crocket...etc. Turner will put the guy in there that can make plays, and right now all signs point to L. Jordan. I could post the quote again of Turner saying Jordan has ALL the neccessaties of a great reiciever including recieving out of the backfield.
Besides coach speak, there is nothing to point out that Lamont is a good receiver, both from stats and from playing time for the Jets. Lamont is NOT a better receiver than Zereoue and hence why Zereoue will get a large portion of the RB receptions compared to his playing time. The Raiders appear to have a higher number of backfield receptions than the average team and my guess is due to a combination of a poor running game and playing from behind. So if the running attack is better, which I am assuing it will be, then you will see less receptions for the Raiders RBs, and more carries. When the Raiders are down by a few scores, you will see Zereoue in the backfield more than you normally would.

Again, 50 receptions is not out of the question, but its not a smart projection as if its likely to happen.
As true is your last statement may be, we do not know if Zeroue is a better reicieving back then Jordan. Only time will tell.
 
Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.

I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.
These stats don't mean much. Jordan is a good recieving back but Martin the starting tailback in NY was a good recieving back as well. Therefore Jordan is obviously going to be limited.
 
Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.

I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.
My argument all along in receiving numbers with Jordan for the Raiders has been that they will use Amos much more in the receiving game than Jordan - Zereoue, for all his faults, can't list receiving ability as one of them.
It is hard to say how much Zeroue will be utilized this up coming year. Even if Zeroue does get recieving yards you can't ignore the fact (full backs included) Oak had 101 receptions coming out of the backfield for 700 yds. Give 400 to Jordan, 200 to Zeroue, and give 100 to any of the fullback Crocket...etc. Turner will put the guy in there that can make plays, and right now all signs point to L. Jordan. I could post the quote again of Turner saying Jordan has ALL the neccessaties of a great reiciever including recieving out of the backfield.
Besides coach speak, there is nothing to point out that Lamont is a good receiver, both from stats and from playing time for the Jets. Lamont is NOT a better receiver than Zereoue and hence why Zereoue will get a large portion of the RB receptions compared to his playing time. The Raiders appear to have a higher number of backfield receptions than the average team and my guess is due to a combination of a poor running game and playing from behind. So if the running attack is better, which I am assuing it will be, then you will see less receptions for the Raiders RBs, and more carries. When the Raiders are down by a few scores, you will see Zereoue in the backfield more than you normally would.

Again, 50 receptions is not out of the question, but its not a smart projection as if its likely to happen.
As true is your last statement may be, we do not know if Zeroue is a better reicieving back then Jordan. Only time will tell.
Well at this point in time, ZEREOUE is the better receiving back from the proof that we have up until this point in time.
 
Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.

I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.
These stats don't mean much. Jordan is a good recieving back but Martin the starting tailback in NY was a good recieving back as well. Therefore Jordan is obviously going to be limited.
What has shown you he is a Good receiving back, exactly? Why do you keep saying he is a good receiving back. Jets homers have even chimed in on Lamont discusions to indicate he is lacking in that area. I am curious where you are pulling this from. I know you didn't watch Lamont enough to actually give your opinon on from watching him play. I mean he only had 15 receptions the whole year, you probably saw two of them on TV while watching. His stats? Nope

His playing time? Nope

You seem to be saying he is a good receiver from what a coach said, and then from that, saying he will he get 50 receptions. :confused:

 
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Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.

I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.
My argument all along in receiving numbers with Jordan for the Raiders has been that they will use Amos much more in the receiving game than Jordan - Zereoue, for all his faults, can't list receiving ability as one of them.
It is hard to say how much Zeroue will be utilized this up coming year. Even if Zeroue does get recieving yards you can't ignore the fact (full backs included) Oak had 101 receptions coming out of the backfield for 700 yds. Give 400 to Jordan, 200 to Zeroue, and give 100 to any of the fullback Crocket...etc. Turner will put the guy in there that can make plays, and right now all signs point to L. Jordan. I could post the quote again of Turner saying Jordan has ALL the neccessaties of a great reiciever including recieving out of the backfield.
Besides coach speak, there is nothing to point out that Lamont is a good receiver, both from stats and from playing time for the Jets. Lamont is NOT a better receiver than Zereoue and hence why Zereoue will get a large portion of the RB receptions compared to his playing time. The Raiders appear to have a higher number of backfield receptions than the average team and my guess is due to a combination of a poor running game and playing from behind. So if the running attack is better, which I am assuing it will be, then you will see less receptions for the Raiders RBs, and more carries. When the Raiders are down by a few scores, you will see Zereoue in the backfield more than you normally would.

Again, 50 receptions is not out of the question, but its not a smart projection as if its likely to happen.
As true is your last statement may be, we do not know if Zeroue is a better reicieving back then Jordan. Only time will tell.
Well at this point in time, ZEREOUE is the better receiving back from the proof that we have up until this point in time.
I mean Zeroue does have 2123 rushing yards in comparison to L. Jordan's 1277 so up until this point in time we would have to assume Zeroue is a better RB overall, so no need to sign Jordan as a RB then :rolleyes:
 
Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.

I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.
My argument all along in receiving numbers with Jordan for the Raiders has been that they will use Amos much more in the receiving game than Jordan - Zereoue, for all his faults, can't list receiving ability as one of them.
It is hard to say how much Zeroue will be utilized this up coming year. Even if Zeroue does get recieving yards you can't ignore the fact (full backs included) Oak had 101 receptions coming out of the backfield for 700 yds. Give 400 to Jordan, 200 to Zeroue, and give 100 to any of the fullback Crocket...etc. Turner will put the guy in there that can make plays, and right now all signs point to L. Jordan. I could post the quote again of Turner saying Jordan has ALL the neccessaties of a great reiciever including recieving out of the backfield.
Besides coach speak, there is nothing to point out that Lamont is a good receiver, both from stats and from playing time for the Jets. Lamont is NOT a better receiver than Zereoue and hence why Zereoue will get a large portion of the RB receptions compared to his playing time. The Raiders appear to have a higher number of backfield receptions than the average team and my guess is due to a combination of a poor running game and playing from behind. So if the running attack is better, which I am assuing it will be, then you will see less receptions for the Raiders RBs, and more carries. When the Raiders are down by a few scores, you will see Zereoue in the backfield more than you normally would.

Again, 50 receptions is not out of the question, but its not a smart projection as if its likely to happen.
As true is your last statement may be, we do not know if Zeroue is a better reicieving back then Jordan. Only time will tell.
Well at this point in time, ZEREOUE is the better receiving back from the proof that we have up until this point in time.
I mean Zeroue does have 2123 rushing yards in comparison to L. Jordan's 1277 so up until this point in time we would have to assume Zeroue is a better RB overall, so no need to sign Jordan as a RB then :rolleyes:
Based on your argument, we don't know if Lamont is better than Tomlinson then do we? :lmao: Is Barry Sanders better than Lamont? We don't know, only time will tell. :lmao:

 
Jordan has 50 receptions in 62 regular season games and another 6 catches in 5 games in the postseason.

I guess he could be used a lot more in the passing game, but it's not something the Jets utilized him for.
These stats don't mean much. Jordan is a good recieving back but Martin the starting tailback in NY was a good recieving back as well. Therefore Jordan is obviously going to be limited.
What has shown you he is a Good receiving back, exactly? Why do you keep saying he is a good receiving back. Jets homers have even chimed in on Lamont discusions to indicate he is lacking in that area. I am curious where you are pulling this from. I know you didn't watch Lamont enough to actually give your opinon on from watching him play. I mean he only had 15 receptions the whole year, you probably saw two of them on TV while watching. His stats? Nope

His playing time? Nope

You seem to be saying he is a good receiver from what a coach said, and then from that, saying he will he get 50 receptions. :confused:
1) I remember watching last year and he caught some balls out the backfield and his hands looked extremely nice. But we can disregard my observations..... I did however notice this and then2) I have heard from coaches ie. N.Turner commenting on how Jordan has great recieving ability.....

3) Last year announcers commenting on how nice L. Jordan catches the ball out the backfield and turns it up field.

4) This is what was said about him before he was drafted to NYJ.....

He is a very physical runner, combining power, speed and the willingness to take on linebackers. He has shown natural pass-catching skills since his freshman season and totaled 76 receptions over his career for 737 yards and 1 TD. He has the powerful burst to run through tackles but also has the ability to make defenders miss and is able to slide laterally, though he is not a multiple move type of runner. He has quick acceleration through the hole, with the deceptive speed to break an occasional long run. His yardage after contact is exceptional displaying great lower body strength, balance, vision and power. His powerful legs allow him to run through tacklers and maintain balance and finish his runs in a downhill fashion.

He has the talent to be a rookie feature runner and capable of being an every-down NFL back and the best runner in this fine group. At a private workout, he ran a 4.4 at 237 pounds. He is a tough power runner with the size and strength to be a workhorse feature back. He is similar to Lamar Smith and Corey Dillon in size and speed and carries a rookie starting grade. Browns and Pats are praying he makes it to the early 2nd round.

 
1) I remember watching last year and he caught some balls out the backfield and his hands looked extremely nice. But we can disregard my observations..... I did however notice this and then
:bs: I was there every Sunday with you and Jets games were hardly ever playing on our big screen. He averaged less than a catch a game, yet you happened to be watching at those exact times. I am more leaning you are talking out of you @$# to help your argument.

 
I really think a lot of you are underestimating Jordan's possible TD production. Norv has never used a committee when he has had a workhorse back with all the necessary skills. Crockett is nothing special at the goal line, and Lamont is just as big, and hits the hole much faster. Personally, I don't see Lamont losing time on third downs to a mediocre pass catcher, and I also don't see him losing time at the goal line to a mediocre runner. Jordan will carry the vast majority of the load, and should EASILY score 10 tds.

 
1) I remember watching last year and he caught some balls out the backfield and his hands looked extremely nice.  But we can disregard my observations..... I did however notice this and then
:bs: I was there every Sunday with you and Jets games were hardly ever playing on our big screen. He averaged less than a catch a game, yet you happened to be watching at those exact times. I am more leaning you are talking out of you @$# to help your argument.
Okay which one of you two is Tyler Durden?
 
1) I remember watching last year and he caught some balls out the backfield and his hands looked extremely nice. But we can disregard my observations..... I did however notice this and then
:bs: I was there every Sunday with you and Jets games were hardly ever playing on our big screen. He averaged less than a catch a game, yet you happened to be watching at those exact times. I am more leaning you are talking out of you @$# to help your argument.
I am not going to mention every time I watched a Jets game. However, if you notice I did say disregard my observations.
 
I really think a lot of you are underestimating Jordan's possible TD production. Norv has never used a committee when he has had a workhorse back with all the necessary skills. Crockett is nothing special at the goal line, and Lamont is just as big, and hits the hole much faster. Personally, I don't see Lamont losing time on third downs to a mediocre pass catcher, and I also don't see him losing time at the goal line to a mediocre runner. Jordan will carry the vast majority of the load, and should EASILY score 10 tds.
:goodposting:
 
I really think a lot of you are underestimating Jordan's possible TD production. Norv has never used a committee when he has had a workhorse back with all the necessary skills. Crockett is nothing special at the goal line, and Lamont is just as big, and hits the hole much faster. Personally, I don't see Lamont losing time on third downs to a mediocre pass catcher, and I also don't see him losing time at the goal line to a mediocre runner. Jordan will carry the vast majority of the load, and should EASILY score 10 tds.
:goodposting:
I mean why would you take out a RB as big and as fast as L. Jordan at the goal line???? With all do respect to the D. Staley and J. Bettis comparisons. Z. Crockett is not J. Bettis.
 
I really think a lot of you are underestimating Jordan's possible TD production. Norv has never used a committee when he has had a workhorse back with all the necessary skills. Crockett is nothing special at the goal line, and Lamont is just as big, and hits the hole much faster. Personally, I don't see Lamont losing time on third downs to a mediocre pass catcher, and I also don't see him losing time at the goal line to a mediocre runner. Jordan will carry the vast majority of the load, and should EASILY score 10 tds.
:goodposting:
:lmao: LAMONT IS A MEDIOCRE RB HIMSELF!!!!

EASILY score 10 TDs? Are you listening to yourselves? Only around 10 RBs got 10 TDs last year. Thats not good supporting evidence to project him to do it "EASILY". You guys are way out to lunch when projecting 10 TDs "EASILY".

 
1) I remember watching last year and he caught some balls out the backfield and his hands looked extremely nice. But we can disregard my observations..... I did however notice this and then
:bs: I was there every Sunday with you and Jets games were hardly ever playing on our big screen. He averaged less than a catch a game, yet you happened to be watching at those exact times. I am more leaning you are talking out of you @$# to help your argument.
I am not going to mention every time I watched a Jets game. However, if you notice I did say disregard my observations.
Just stop talking out of your !#* in an attempt to try to help your argument, cause thats exactly what you are doing.
 
I really think a lot of you are underestimating Jordan's possible TD production.  Norv has never used a committee when he has had a workhorse back with all the necessary skills.  Crockett is nothing special at the goal line, and Lamont is just as big, and hits the hole much faster.  Personally, I don't see Lamont losing time on third downs to a mediocre pass catcher, and I also don't see him losing time at the goal line to a mediocre runner.  Jordan will carry the vast majority of the load, and should EASILY score 10 tds.
:goodposting:
:lmao: LAMONT IS A MEDIOCRE RB HIMSELF!!!!

EASILY score 10 TDs? Are you listening to yourselves? Only around 10 RBs got 10 TDs last year. Thats not good supporting evidence to project him to do it "EASILY". You guys are way out to lunch when projecting 10 TDs "EASILY".
Ok, you can look at it as only 10 RB's having 10 TDs but fact is 27 RB's in the NFL last year had 7 combined TD's last season. I will repeat, 27 RB's had 7 combined TD's last year. To assume he would not get at least 7 and closer to 10 or possiby even higher with that offense is not talking out of my a#S it is reality. But continue to think otherwise.
 
I really think a lot of you are underestimating Jordan's possible TD production.  Norv has never used a committee when he has had a workhorse back with all the necessary skills.  Crockett is nothing special at the goal line, and Lamont is just as big, and hits the hole much faster.  Personally, I don't see Lamont losing time on third downs to a mediocre pass catcher, and I also don't see him losing time at the goal line to a mediocre runner.  Jordan will carry the vast majority of the load, and should EASILY score 10 tds.
:goodposting:
:lmao: LAMONT IS A MEDIOCRE RB HIMSELF!!!!

EASILY score 10 TDs? Are you listening to yourselves? Only around 10 RBs got 10 TDs last year. Thats not good supporting evidence to project him to do it "EASILY". You guys are way out to lunch when projecting 10 TDs "EASILY".
Ok, you can look at it as only 10 RB's having 10 TDs but fact is 27 RB's in the NFL last year had 7 combined TD's last season. I will repeat, 27 RB's had 7 combined TD's last year. To assume he would not get at least 7 and closer to 10 or possiby even higher with that offense is not talking out of my a#S it is reality. But continue to think otherwise.
Projecting 7 TDs and "EASILY" 10 TDs are quite different.
 
I think that predicting 10 TDs for Jordan is more than fair. I see him as being anywhere from 8-12 TDs, total TDs that is. On a side note, how in the word is this thread still alive? :excited:

 
On a side note, how in the word is this thread still alive? :excited:
I was just going to post the same thing.
Because both players have significant risks involved you could argue for one or the other until you're blue in the face...and apparently a few have decided to do so. :blueface:
 
On a side note, how in the word is this thread still alive? :excited:
I was just going to post the same thing.
Because both players have significant risks involved you could argue for one or the other until you're blue in the face...and apparently a few have decided to do so. :blueface:
Well needless to say I have certainly found this thread to be enertaining. :popcorn:
 
On a side note, how in the word is this thread still alive? :excited:
I was just going to post the same thing.
Because both players have significant risks involved you could argue for one or the other until you're blue in the face...and apparently a few have decided to do so. :blueface:
Well needless to say I have certainly found this thread to be enertaining. :popcorn:
It is called two stubborn fantasy players who have an NFL jersey as a side bet. I am glad it is entertaining............ I do enjoy everyone that has been involved in the posts and debate. It is really appreciated. As for mysely it will be a :boxing: with Friday_Frenzy until the end.
 

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