Cam Newton to Pats (1 Viewer)

[Snorkelson]

I am taking the position that Cam is not 100%, that his body is worn down, and that NE doesn't want him running all over the place. So sure, if 2015 Cam Newton shows up I agree that getting a QB that can account for 45 touchdowns makes them a much better team. I just don't think they are getting that (and that that one season will be his career outlier). I also think that my opinion is not alone, as every other team pretty much stayed clear from Cam (yes, I am aware that people will say COVID kept him from getting a physical).

While I’ve thought their hand was a bit forced with seeing how stidham panned out due to cap reasons, I’ll admit I won’t be surprised if he’s the starter still, and cam is used as more of a football player “similar” to taysom hill. My whole picture of the pats offense went out the window and I’ll probably avoid everyone at this point. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Heck, I head someone today say that if Hoyer lights up training camp that Bill would pick him to start Week 1.

As someone tasked to predict with 100% accuracy exactly where to draft each player, that's just great...  

 

[Anarchy99]

If he was 2015 Cam you guys would be on the same tier as Balt and KC.  All you need is 2018 Cam to be in the mix as I'm describing.

Whether he runs a lot or not, he still affects the defensive personnel and puts a strain on them in the way only a couple QBs do.  When you add the quality of coaching in NE to that ability, the only limit is their imagine when it comes to pre snap motion, play action, personnel packages...you name it.

Cam circa 2018 Games 1-8 was great . . . the last month of the season not so much. I can't remember what I posted where, but the things NE did great with Brady (short timing passes and underneath routes) is not Newton's strong suit. Cam is better at deeper throws (if his shoulder is back to normal) . . . and NE has no deep ball threats on the roster. I don't love the fit with the personnel on the NE roster.

Cam holds onto the ball too long, which created too many hard hits, fumbles, and errant passes. That's the complete opposite of Brady's game. Maybe BB and JMcD can correct that and maybe they can scheme things to fit Cam (they certainly will try), but no matter what the offense will look a lot different than it did with Brady.

 

[Blackbear]

What does "winning the battle" actually mean? I said that based on what limited info we have available now that Stidham would be my guess to start Week 1. From there, everything would be outcome dependent. If NE started the year 6-2 with Stidham, I would expect that NE would stick with him at QB. If they started 0-4, they would quickly make a move to Newton. But the same thing could happen the other direction. They could start out playing Newton, and if he looked mediocre and they didn't win, then they would try Stidham.

IMO, I don't think Cam is 100% healthy, I don't think he fits in well with the offensive talent they have currently, and I am not sure how much of the playbook he can absorb in two months. That's why if NE truly had an interest to have Cam start and be fully up to speed, they needed to sign him 3 months ago. But I also am not getting the warm and fuzzies that there will be much football anyway and that all of this might not make much difference if there are no games played.

https://youtu.be/sGc7Sfj0L3Q

 

[Vandelay]

Cam circa 2018 Games 1-8 was great . . . the last month of the season not so much. I can't remember what I posted where, but the things NE did great with Brady (short timing passes and underneath routes) is not Newton's strong suit. Cam is better at deeper throws (if his shoulder is back to normal) . . . and NE has no deep ball threats on the roster. I don't love the fit with the personnel on the NE roster.

Cam holds onto the ball too long, which created too many hard hits, fumbles, and errant passes. That's the complete opposite of Brady's game. Maybe BB and JMcD can correct that and maybe they can scheme things to fit Cam (they certainly will try), but no matter what the offense will look a lot different than it did with Brady.

When he was injured.

This has so much less to with the passing game than the running game.

Your choices seem to be run the same system with a vastly inferior version of Tom Brady, or scrap everything and design a new system around a mobile QB whose mere presence improves the running game.  You can just about bet the house they don't try to do both.

 

[Snorkelson]

As someone tasked to predict with 100% accuracy exactly where to draft each player, that's just great...  

Michel- tds vultured whether Newton starts or not, draft at your own risk. Newton starter may help Michel in some respects. 

pats wrs- probably go before I’d take any of them, draft at your own risk

james white- typical James white season, less tds, maybe safest pat player

Pats tes- um, who are they again? Maybe they signed someone, I can’t remember anything from April when I knew all the UDFA for every team, it’s all out the window now. Remember Kobe’s helicopter crash? That was 3 years ago right?
 

pats def- I draft them almost every year (although they may be popular after last year)

For me, it’s a big “I don’t want to deal with that” unless it’s a piece with upside or depth, which is expendable in the late rounds. No one on that team I want to rely on as week to week starter, or that I’d draft earlier than their adp. 

 

[GordonGekko]

Bottom line, the situation is muddled for now and will take a few months to gain any clarity.

 

[Anarchy99]

When he was injured.

This has so much less to with the passing game than the running game.

Your choices seem to be run the same system with a vastly inferior version of Tom Brady, or scrap everything and design a new system around a mobile QB whose mere presence improves the running game.  You can just about bet the house they don't try to do both.

Therein lies the problem. IMO, Stidham would better fit the Brady system with some additional variations that would not be just pure pocket passer plays. The current offensive roster already knows those plays and formations and the coaching staff would have a decent idea of what to expect with Stidham.

Cam doesn't fit the old offensive model and they would have to retool on the fly in a different direction. The current crop of offensive players would have to learn a lot more and draw from their knowledge of the current system far less. Basically, they would have to install an entire new scheme that no one is familiar with in roughly 8 weeks (and with no practices at the moment).

As you said, it would be exceedingly difficult to do both in the current climate and existing timeline. I am not sure there is much common ground in putting together a system and game plan that would fit both QBs.

 

[Anarchy99]

I don't think this situation needs any more clarity

What would be the best thing to help Stidham succeed? If Belichick drafted better

What would be the best thing to help Newton succeed? If Belichick drafted better

What is the critical factor in a team's current pathway to success or not? How said team has drafted in the past three seasons ( Core Bill Walsh methodology, tried and true, battle tested, and immovable to changes to format, CBA, salary cap, trends and hype)

If you need to rely on an untested 4th rounder QB1, then you've very likely drafted poorly over the long haul to get to this situation

If you need to rely on a former star coming off major injury with legit concerns to his mental makeup, then you've very likely drafted poorly over the long haul to get to this situation.

Belichick THE COACH can help himself the most by getting more production from Belichick THE DRAFTER

Now before some Patriots homer comes in and goes full mealy mouth on me, Angry Bill does do a good job with some very very late picks. And yes, everyone is going to miss on picks sometimes. However he can't draft a skill guy to save his life. He seems to ignore the reality that sometimes you do need a one dimensional guy to fill a one dimensional role  at times because you can't Swiss Army knife every other team all the time. He often ignores "Value For Slot", he takes players he could take several rounds later, which denotes a glaring flaw in basic resource management ( For a guy who consistently works the Comp pick system and does a decent job in most trades against league values, there isn't an excuse) He often ignores basic positional value. When you take a kicker in the 5th round that you could have gotten as an UDFA, that doesn't help your team. He also doubles down on some draft mistakes ( guys like Chung and Maroney, who should have been sent packing sooner or kept packing in a different direction for the long haul)

The downside to being a "genius" is you don't get to make excuses of any kind regarding basic resource management.

Belichick needs to draft better, i.e. to be more specific - draft more efficiently with regard to league trends, positional value and value for slot in line with basic resource management that any first year NFL intern would understand

Tom Brady was Belichick's best cover man. Not Ty Law. Not Revis. Not even Gilmore. Covering up for years for Angry Bill's poor drafting.

Otherwise you get situations like this, where the team rests it's hope on a wing and a prayer ( Newton has been successful, he is talented, but he is exactly that right now)

You want to know why a team rises or falls? Look at the last three drafts. Bill Walsh is the real genius. And he didn't need to molest a sweatshirt like an angry 14 year old teenage girl to do it.

Pretty much all you posted is irrelevant to the current QB situation. They aren't drafting anyone new between July and September. And they can't go back in a time machine and repick players. You have posted over and over that Bill can't draft, and in recent years admittedly he hasn't done great. But he has done well in the past, has made notable key trades, has signed UDFA, and picked up guys off the scrap heap for free. Riddle me this . . . would you rather have a GM that has made some great draft picks but never won a SB or a GM/coach that hasn't had great drafts and has averaged going to the SB in almost every other season?

You will say the huge reason for their success was all Brady, but Brady doesn't play defense, doesn't play special teams, and doesn't make game specific game plans tailored to each opponent. Was he a great implementer of those game plans? Yep. Was he able to save their bacon when they needed it? Yep. I don't think it will be such a hot take to suggest that BB without Brady would not have won as often and TB without Bill would not have won as often.

Many more draft picks don't work out than do work out. For example, several people suggested BB couldn't draft a QB to save his life and lucked into Brady. Yet NE had brought multiple guys into the league that started games last year (Brady, Jimmy G., Brissett, and Hoyer) and they could potentially add another in Stidham this year. Let me know what other team / GM has 5 guys that started in the NFL before all in the league at the same time. No, those guys aren't anywhere near Brady's level, but they developed all those other guys when they weren't really looking for another QB.

I know, people will point to how BB did in CLE and how NE did pre-Brady . . . but that was decades ago. Bill still knows how to coach, scheme, and manage the salary cap better than anyone ever has. They have continued to win year after year, many times with less than stellar talent. Let's wait for the building to actually collapse on NE before we suggest the sky is falling and the team will struggle to win 5 games.

 

[Vandelay]

Therein lies the problem. IMO, Stidham would better fit the Brady system with some additional variations that would not be just pure pocket passer plays. The current offensive roster already knows those plays and formations and the coaching staff would have a decent idea of what to expect with Stidham.

Cam doesn't fit the old offensive model and they would have to retool on the fly in a different direction. The current crop of offensive players would have to learn a lot more and draw from their knowledge of the current system far less. Basically, they would have to install an entire new scheme that no one is familiar with in roughly 8 weeks (and with no practices at the moment).

As you said, it would be exceedingly difficult to do both in the current climate and existing timeline. I am not sure there is much common ground in putting together a system and game plan that would fit both QBs.

Now we're starting to agree.  So if we agree they won't try to do both, you probably can't implement a Cam offense midseason with any degree of success either.

The time to implement the offense is now.  It'd be a whole lot easier to go back to the old offense mid-season that it would to go from that to a Cam offense midseason.

They've also been in touch since when, April?  I'm sure they're not just now getting around to designing it for Cam.

Bottom line, I believe Belichick signing him indicates he thinks he's the best option if healthy.  It tells me they're going all in designing an offense for Cam and if his health falls apart, they'll revert back to the familiar scheme with Stidham.  Otherwise, why sign him and deal with all of this distraction?

None of this is ideal, but every team is experiencing distruption like never before right now.  I'm sure Belichik feels he can outcoach his opponents who are also reacting to the current environment and trying to install offenses as well.

 

[Anarchy99]

Now we're starting to agree.  So if we agree they won't try to do both, you probably can't implement a Cam offense midseason with any degree of success either.

The time to implement the offense is now.  It'd be a whole lot easier to go back to the old offense mid-season that it would to go from that to a Cam offense midseason.

They've also been in touch since when, April?  I'm sure they're not just now getting around to designing it for Cam.

Bottom line, I believe Belichick signing him indicates he thinks he's the best option if healthy.  It tells me they're going all in designing an offense for Cam and if his health falls apart, they'll revert back to the familiar scheme with Stidham.  Otherwise, why sign him and deal with all of this distraction?

None of this is ideal, but every team is experiencing distruption like never before right now.  I'm sure Belichik feels he can outcoach his opponents who are also reacting to the current environment and trying to install offenses as well.

I am not sure they would have be in touch with Cam for 3 months and opening their proverbial kimono (and schemes) to a player not under contract when said player could still sign with a primary competitor. It also wouldn't make sense to have spent the last 3 months doing virtual coaching up of a playbook (for Stidham) that would be flushed down the drain overnight.

It also remains to be seen if the current roster can support what would work best for Cam. We already suspect that both the roster and core of the playbook would be a better fit for Stidham. That was why in one of these threads I suggested that to dump one system for another (one that fits Cam) with a high probability that Cam would only be there for one year and THEN go back to one for Stidham next year doesn't make much sense. One of the reasons NE has been able to stay viable has been the stability they have in terms of systems, coaches, and coordinators. Other teams have failed by changing things up every year or two, and QBs from those teams have suffered accordingly. They have morphed into different things over the years, but they were not radical departures.

Who knows . . . maybe they will experiment over the course of the summer and conclude that one way will work and the other won't and move forward accordingly. But we do know that the NE roster doesn't have players similar to Ted Ginn . . . or Greg Olsen . . . or Christian McCaffrey . . . or DJ Moore . . . or Kelvin Benjamin. Based on all that, that's why I don't think moving on to Cam would yield results much greater than they could get with Stidham. They would be completely dumping most everything they did that worked for the past 20 years.

A lot more will be determined once they know how healthy Newton is and if he is back to his Superman levels.

 

[ratbast]

With the off-season shortened or scrapped, wouldn’t it make sense to approach the season with a simplified ground and pound? I’d guess Bill is trying to get the defense and run game to be the focus. Stidham or Cam can be that player and I’d bet they could even scheme both. Hopefully Stidham turns into Stafford but I’d love to see Cam rebound and run like his life depends on it. 

 

[Vandelay]

With the off-season shortened or scrapped, wouldn’t it make sense to approach the season with a simplified ground and pound? I’d guess Bill is trying to get the defense and run game to be the focus. Stidham or Cam can be that player and I’d bet they could even scheme both. Hopefully Stidham turns into Stafford but I’d love to see Cam rebound and run like his life depends on it. 

It easy to say ground and pound, but even that looks a lot different with Cam under center.  I agree that is likely the direction they go, just not that the QBs could be interchangeable without disruption to scheme.

Honestly this all probably a major waste of time.  They have to play games before we can know an answer and that prospect gets darker by the day.

 

[Blackbear]

Pat McAphee... think Newton is starter...

https://youtu.be/LEWbd2hbAYs

 

[Blackbear]

This list has Cam Newton at 15. I remember Joe Bryant asking a few days ago. Yates says he should be top 12 if healthy.

https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/06/ranking-the-nfls-best-qbs-2020-fantasy-football/

I notice Stidham isn’t listed. 

 

[Blackbear]

Good analysis of how Newton will be used in the passing game... https://youtu.be/ww7eu_t1lI0

 

[Blackbear]

Not a huge fan of Nick Wright but he nailed this two months ago... this video aged well...

https://youtu.be/zz-H45g4x3M

 

[Joe Bryant]

Not a huge fan of Nick Wright but he nailed this two months ago... this video aged well...

https://youtu.be/zz-H45g4x3M

Credit where it's due. Wright nailed that. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Credit where it's due. Wright nailed that. 

I am still seeing and hearing a ton of opinions on Cam in NE including . . .

- You don't sign a former MVP and not start him. Cam is the man, he starts Game 1 and thereafter (until he gets hurt again).
- Stidham starts games until Cam is up to speed on the offense.
- Cam's MVP was a career year and an outlier. After his recent poor play and injuries, he's an average QB (or worse) and NE will be disappointed.
- NE is dumping the Brady style offense altogether, so both Cam and Stidham are starting from scratch in learning the new offense (Cam wins out in this one).
- NE is keeping their old offense and modifying it some to fit Stidham (which Cam doesn't fit into).
- Cam will have to beat out Stidham for the job . . . or vice versa.
- The Pats will try to get Cam to fit more into the Brady system, which won't work out and Stidham ends up starting.
- NE will install special packages for Cam, but Stidham is the lead dog and Cam doesn't play much (except in things like the Wildcat or at the goal line).
- Newton is an experiment that won't work out. Cam is only guaranteed $550K, he isn't healthy, and will be cut before Week 1.
- Cam is the perfect fit in NE, he's motivated, he's healthy, and NE is getting the MVP version of Cam (and NE ends up as SB contenders).
- Cam is a terrible fit, has accuracy issues, won't run as much after his foot injury, he's taken way to many hits, so he's not the same guy anymore.
- NE LOVES Stidham and Cam is only there to replace Hoyer . . . or he's just a depth piece and they roll with 3 QBs with Cam on the bench.
- Cam starts as much as he can this year, a bridge year for NE, and the Pats roll with Stidham next year.
- NE won't win with Newton or Stidham and they are so bad they get Lawrence or Fields in the draft.
- Cam, Stidham, and Hoyer all go through camp and BB picks someone the day before Week1 (so Miami has no clue who it will be).
- NE plans to keep Newton, they have the franchise tag available if need be, and he will end up as the long term Brady replacement.
- There won't be a season this year, and Cam will never play as a Patriot (assuming that no games this year means he will be a FA again to start next year).

I have seen just about every possible outcome mentioned. Also of note is that these opinions come from people from the same show, station, website, panel, etc. I have seen round table discussions when analysts A, B, C say their sources tell them X, Y, Z (and none of those fit together). There are probably more wrinkles and hot takes that I left off. As I mentioned previously, most members of the the national media don't even mention Stidham at all anymore. Locally it's probably 50/50 who people think will start Week 1.

 

[Vandelay]

I am still seeing and hearing a ton of opinions on Cam in NE including . . .

- You don't sign a former MVP and not start him. Cam is the man, he starts Game 1 and thereafter (until he gets hurt again).
- Stidham starts games until Cam is up to speed on the offense.
- Cam's MVP was a career year and an outlier. After his recent poor play and injuries, he's an average QB (or worse) and NE will be disappointed.
- NE is dumping the Brady style offense altogether, so both Cam and Stidham are starting from scratch in learning the new offense (Cam wins out in this one).
- NE is keeping their old offense and modifying it some to fit Stidham (which Cam doesn't fit into).
- Cam will have to beat out Stidham for the job . . . or vice versa.
- The Pats will try to get Cam to fit more into the Brady system, which won't work out and Stidham ends up starting.
- NE will install special packages for Cam, but Stidham is the lead dog and Cam doesn't play much (except in things like the Wildcat or at the goal line).
- Newton is an experiment that won't work out. Cam is only guaranteed $550K, he isn't healthy, and will be cut before Week 1.
- Cam is the perfect fit in NE, he's motivated, he's healthy, and NE is getting the MVP version of Cam (and NE ends up as SB contenders).
- Cam is a terrible fit, has accuracy issues, won't run as much after his foot injury, he's taken way to many hits, so he's not the same guy anymore.
- NE LOVES Stidham and Cam is only there to replace Hoyer . . . or he's just a depth piece and they roll with 3 QBs with Cam on the bench.
- Cam starts as much as he can this year, a bridge year for NE, and the Pats roll with Stidham next year.
- NE won't win with Newton or Stidham and they are so bad they get Lawrence or Fields in the draft.
- Cam, Stidham, and Hoyer all go through camp and BB picks someone the day before Week1 (so Miami has no clue who it will be).
- NE plans to keep Newton, they have the franchise tag available if need be, and he will end up as the long term Brady replacement.
- There won't be a season this year, and Cam will never play as a Patriot (assuming that no games this year means he will be a FA again to start next year).

I have seen just about every possible outcome mentioned. Also of note is that these opinions come from people from the same show, station, website, panel, etc. I have seen round table discussions when analysts A, B, C say their sources tell them X, Y, Z (and none of those fit together). There are probably more wrinkles and hot takes that I left off. As I mentioned previously, most members of the the national media don't even mention Stidham at all anymore. Locally it's probably 50/50 who people think will start Week 1.

Oh good grief.  Bill knows what he's going to do, or at least what he WANTS to do.  He may not tell the press the truth but he knows.  Sources are absolutely useless in this scenario.

The only way to unravel this is to predict what BB is thinking.  IMO its clear as day.

 

[Anarchy99]

Oh good grief.  Bill knows what he's going to do, or at least what he WANTS to do.  He may not tell the press the truth but he knows.  Sources are absolutely useless in this scenario.

The only way to unravel this is to predict what BB is thinking.  IMO its clear as day.

BB wants one of his QBs to be so far better than the others that a starter presents himself without having to decide anything. Sure, he hopes he just signed a former MVP that still has MVP skills . . . but that may not be true, he may still be banged up, and he may not fit in. No one could possibly know what Cam has left in the tank or if he is hobbled . . . he hasn't even had a practice yet. But sure, Bill would love if Superman Cam showed up and produces 45 TDs.

NE has brought in plenty of guys that worked out . . . and plenty of guys that did not. Ocho Cinco, Antonio Brown, Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, Albert Haynesworth, Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Donte Stallworth, Adalius Thomas, Steven Jackson, Tim Tebow, etc. I am pretty sure Bill had high hopes for those guys, too. Bill won't throw someone on the field just because he felt like it . . . the player will have earned a spot and be what's best for the team.

 

[Boston]

This is not overly difficult to figure out:

*As much as he's the GOAT it was time for the Pats to turn the page on the next chapter and it also made sense for Brady to go elsewhere...neither is to blame, it was just time

*The Pats were willing to go into the season with Stidham as their QB...there was not some grand plan to wait until the end of June and then sign Newton to the league minimum, no way you could be guaranteed that was gonna happen

*Once that became an option it was a no-brainer...there is absolutely no downside to it and they now have two viable options to figure out their QB situation

*If Newton is close to what he normally is he is the starter...if not Stidham could beat him out...I could see Newton being anywhere from being the league MVP to not making the team...all depends on where his body is right now

*There is absolutely no way the Pats will run the same offense with Newton as they did with Brady and it was gonna change with Stidham as well...due to that I don't see the playbook being an issue at all...overall, the game is changing and I think the Pats O is moving in a different direction

*BB's ability to continually surprise after 20 years is truly amazing...anyone who says they know exactly what he is gonna do is full of it which is why neither Cam or Stidham will be playing and Edelman will be at QB this year running the wishbone

 

[Vandelay]

BB wants one of his QBs to be so far better than the others that a starter presents himself without having to decide anything. Sure, he hopes he just signed a former MVP that still has MVP skills . . . but that may not be true, he may still be banged up, and he may not fit in. No one could possibly know what Cam has left in the tank or if he is hobbled . . . he hasn't even had a practice yet. But sure, Bill would love if Superman Cam showed up and produces 45 TDs.

NE has brought in plenty of guys that worked out . . . and plenty of guys that did not. Ocho Cinco, Antonio Brown, Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, Albert Haynesworth, Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Donte Stallworth, Adalius Thomas, Steven Jackson, Tim Tebow, etc. I am pretty sure Bill had high hopes for those guys, too. Bill won't throw someone on the field just because he felt like it . . . the player will have earned a spot and be what's best for the team.

All true.  And I know you're just relaying what you're hearing, my reaction was aimed at the talking heads.

This is a quarterback though...the leader of the entire team.  You can acquire those names you listed and just dip a toe in to see what happens.  You can't really do that at the QB position, particularly with a unique player and personality like Cam.  If it was Andy Dalton vs Stidham, okay yeah, competition, see what happens.

My position is: if Cam can't "win" this job, his career is over.  He is plan A and B.  He will have to fall flat in his face or be physically unable to perform the duties of the position to not be the starter.

 

[Anarchy99]

All true.  And I know you're just relaying what you're hearing, my reaction was aimed at the talking heads.

This is a quarterback though...the leader of the entire team.  You can acquire those names you listed and just dip a toe in to see what happens.  You can't really do that at the QB position, particularly with a unique player and personality like Cam.  If it was Andy Dalton vs Stidham, okay yeah, competition, see what happens.

My position is: if Cam can't "win" this job, his career is over.  He is plan A and B.  He will have to fall flat in his face or be physically unable to perform the duties of the position to not be the starter.

What's interesting in the discussions I have listened in on is that Kurt Warner was brought up by BOTH sides of the Cam / Stidham debate. Pro-Stidham people pointed to former MVP Warner being banged up and washed up and getting replaced by Eli in New York. And the pro-Cam crowd said Warner was a former MVP that blossomed after a down stretch that returned to prominence in Arizona.

Bottom line, I suspect Cam is either healthy or he's not . . . and we won't know until they suit up and practice. Anyone can look good in a workout video and tossing some passes on a high school field playing in shorts.

 

[Boston]

All true.  And I know you're just relaying what you're hearing, my reaction was aimed at the talking heads.

This is a quarterback though...the leader of the entire team.  You can acquire those names you listed and just dip a toe in to see what happens.  You can't really do that at the QB position, particularly with a unique player and personality like Cam.  If it was Andy Dalton vs Stidham, okay yeah, competition, see what happens.

My position is: if Cam can't "win" this job, his career is over.  He is plan A and B.  He will have to fall flat in his face or be physically unable to perform the duties of the position to not be the starter.

You last line is where I don't agree with you...the Pats obviously like Stidham, pretty tough not to acknowledge that...if Newton comes in and instead of being very good or very bad is just OK and Stidham is legit BB will have no issues going with him...if you are the Pats and can turn Stidham into a legit starter the future just got a lot easier...that being said I do expect Newton to win this job but it is absolutely not going to be given to him...that would go against everything we have seen from BB for the past 20 years.

 

[Vandelay]

This is not overly difficult to figure out:

*As much as he's the GOAT it was time for the Pats to turn the page on the next chapter and it also made sense for Brady to go elsewhere...neither is to blame, it was just time

*The Pats were willing to go into the season with Stidham as their QB...there was not some grand plan to wait until the end of June and then sign Newton to the league minimum, no way you could be guaranteed that was gonna happen

*Once that became an option it was a no-brainer...there is absolutely no downside to it and they now have two viable options to figure out their QB situation

*If Newton is close to what he normally is he is the starter...if not Stidham could beat him out...I could see Newton being anywhere from being the league MVP to not making the team...all depends on where his body is right now

*There is absolutely no way the Pats will run the same offense with Newton as they did with Brady and it was gonna change with Stidham as well...due to that I don't see the playbook being an issue at all...overall, the game is changing and I think the Pats O is moving in a different direction

*BB's ability to continually surprise after 20 years is truly amazing...anyone who says they know exactly what he is gonna do is full of it which is why neither Cam or Stidham will be playing and Edelman will be at QB this year running the wishbone

To these points:

It may not have been the Grand Plan per se, but i definitely think they had a bunch of discussions the ended with something like "This is the best we can offer given our cap constraints. Go see if you can get something better and if not, come on back".  To your point, you have to be willing to enter the season with Stidham to take that stance.

I'm not saying I definitely know what Bill is thinking.  I'm saying he certainly knows and isn't in some hem and haw outlook.  So you make the best guess of what hes thinking.  And it does seem obvious to me.

 

[Vandelay]

You last line is where I don't agree with you...the Pats obviously like Stidham, pretty tough not to acknowledge that...if Newton comes in and instead of being very good or very bad is just OK and Stidham is legit BB will have no issues going with him...if you are the Pats and can turn Stidham into a legit starter the future just got a lot easier...that being said I do expect Newton to win this job but it is absolutely not going to be given to him...that would go against everything we have seen from BB for the past 20 years.

I can agree they liked him relative to their options, which were few.

ETA: regarding the Warner comparison...

Its like these talking heads don't realize what you're signing up for when you hire Cam Newton to your team.  The guy's personality will completely take over every room he enters.  He oozes charisma.  You cannot bottle that up into a clipboard holder without some issues in the locker room.

Warner is a nice guy.  Good player, doesn't demand the spotlight, a leader in a totally different aw shucks kind of way.  Hes also a statue of a pocket passer who you don't invent an entire scheme around.  Cam is the complete opposite of him in almost every way, and those differences are why he cannot follow the Warner career arc of grocery store bagger, to backup, to Super Bowl MVP, to wash out, to Super Bowl QB again.  Just not gonna happen.

 

[Anarchy99]

Other than having no football, I think the worst case scenario for NE would be if Stidham came out in training camp and played timid, was reluctant to throw the ball downfield, and bailed out to safety valve and check down passes way too much . . . AND . . . Cam came in chomping at the bit filled with testosterone and played hero ball, started throwing picks, fumbling, and getting in situations that in game conditions would get him walloped by the defense. Essentially, Stidham lost his confidence and Newton started turning the ball over a ton. Then what?

 

[Blackbear]

Other than having no football, I think the worst case scenario for NE would be if Stidham came out in training camp and played timid, was reluctant to throw the ball downfield, and bailed out to safety valve and check down passes way too much . . . AND . . . Cam came in chomping at the bit filled with testosterone and played hero ball, started throwing picks, fumbling, and getting in situations that in game conditions would get him walloped by the defense. Essentially, Stidham lost his confidence and Newton started turning the ball over a ton. Then what?

Niether was meant to be the starter. Move on and get someone competent.

The worst case scenario is Stidham is rushed and never developed prior to being the starter and resembles Nate Peterman. 

The best case scenario is Stidham develops without pressure while Cam leads Pats to deep playoff drive. Pats then need to decide to resign Cam, or move on to a better prepared Stidham.

They are headed towards the best case scenario in case that isn’t obvious to you.

 

[Anarchy99]

Niether was meant to be the starter. Move on and get someone competent.

The worst case scenario is Stidham is rushed and never developed prior to being the starter and resembles Nate Peterman. 

The best case scenario is Stidham develops without pressure while Cam leads Pats to deep playoff drive. Pats then need to decide to resign Cam, or move on to a better prepared Stidham.

They are headed towards the best case scenario in case that isn’t obvious to you.

I find it hard to believe that the best case scenario is rolling out a QB without any starting experience next year, especially if they have reservations about doing that this year. If they don't ever play Stidham and Cam bolts after this season, then they are right back to having no experienced and reliable QB and no depth at the position. But that's a year away, and they haven't even suited up for the first practice this year yet.

 

[Blackbear]

I find it hard to believe that the best case scenario is rolling out a QB without any starting experience next year, especially if they have reservations about doing that this year. If they don't ever play Stidham and Cam bolts after this season, then they are right back to having no experienced and reliable QB and no depth at the position. But that's a year away, and they haven't even suited up for the first practice this year yet.

And they are in a better situation. Another year of development for Stidham, and a much better cap outlook where the team has more flexibility. Either upgrading weapons, signing a free agent qb, etc... Pats will be in a better position if the scenario you mentioned occurs. The cap hits of Bradys extensions are upon us. As is other dead cap money from AB for example. Next year if they are in this same scenario but with much better cap space then the Pats outlook is even brighter... by ALOT. 

 

[Blackbear]

You might even see a scenario where Cam does very well and they use twenty five million a year over three years or something to retain Cam. 

 

[GordonGekko]

This is not overly difficult to figure out:

*As much as he's the GOAT it was time for the Pats to turn the page on the next chapter and it also made sense for Brady to go elsewhere...neither is to blame, it was just time

 

[Anarchy99]

And they are in a better situation. Another year of development for Stidham, and a much better cap outlook where the team has more flexibility. Either upgrading weapons, signing a free agent qb, etc... Pats will be in a better position if the scenario you mentioned occurs. The cap hits of Bradys extensions are upon us. As is other dead cap money from AB for example. Next year if they are in this same scenario but with much better cap space then the Pats outlook is even brighter... by ALOT. 

We already know that NE would have a ton of cap space next year (assuming they don't slash it by tens of millions of dollars) and could make a lot of positional upgrades. IMO, they would benefit by being in a position to have a QB ready to go in 2021 by deciding that in 2020. It just would make things much easier to plan and prepare for the season.

So they are best served in either getting pot committed to Cam or Stidham THIS YEAR. However, if Cam lights the world on fire (I'm skeptical, but let's say he does), I doubt NE will pay him what he wants (or will franchise him at $30+ million), as another team with cap space would be more inclined to outbid NE. If they play Stidham some this year, they would have a much better idea if rolling him out in 2021 would work. The big knock on Stidham is that he has no live game experience other than his one pick 6. He would get the same critiques next year as this year if he is 100% on the sidelines this season.

 

[Boston]

Other than having no football, I think the worst case scenario for NE would be if Stidham came out in training camp and played timid, was reluctant to throw the ball downfield, and bailed out to safety valve and check down passes way too much . . . AND . . . Cam came in chomping at the bit filled with testosterone and played hero ball, started throwing picks, fumbling, and getting in situations that in game conditions would get him walloped by the defense. Essentially, Stidham lost his confidence and Newton started turning the ball over a ton. Then what?

Easy...then you know Stidham was not meant to be a starter you can win with...i hope the kid turns out well because it would make their life so much easier the next decade but he is a 4th round pick who barely saw the field last year...under no condition should he be handed this job without competition and if he can't handle that it is better to find out now...on the other hand if he were to go into camp, light it up and take a job away from Newton that would earn him serious credibility...or maybe they feel he needs one more year of development and this provides it.

 

[Anarchy99]

It makes absolutely no sense for Brady to have gone elsewhere. It was a necessity for Brady ( who wanted to win, can't blame him) that could have been avoided had the Patriots simply drafted more efficiently. Yes, teams will miss on picks sometimes, but Belichick would routinely defy some generally accepted market realities because he likes cutting up sweatshirts and rubbing things in people's faces. If there was a better roster to put around Brady, then Brady would likely still be there.

One of the things that really stood out about John Elway was when he was asked about late game comeback prowess, he was refreshingly honest, he'd say if he'd done his job right the first three quarters, he wouldn't put himself AND HIS TEAM in the position to play the hero late game.

Belichick THE COACH is a genius. He is required to flex that kind of genius often because Belichick THE DRAFTER drags him down. Here's the litmus test, if someone worked for Belichick The Coach and operated the way Belichick The Drafter does, Belichick The Coach would have fired him faster than Roger Goodell gets on his knees and shines Robert Kraft's shoes. But even a genius level guy needs a bit of luck. Brady is the best QB1 who has ever put a helmet on in the NFL. The rest of the AFC East has been in long term turmoil. The owner is one of the four most powerful/influential owners in their sport.

Belichick doesn't need to flex that genius if, like Elway, he did better legwork those first three quarters ( actually draft more in line with standard market based considerations)  Belichick just needs to be defiant for the sake of it.  He's become a lazy drafter as well. Let's take a Saban guy again and then become a tyrant to some kid because he can't run a Cover 1 like a ten year NFL veteran.

Belichick does things that he himself would justifying firing someone else over.

Brady left a sinking ship. Patriot homers need to feel as if either Belichick threw him off the boat or it was divorce based on two people who became roommates instead of partners but don't hate each other.

"I would rather be his whore than your wife"  - Rose from Titanic

There are massive questions all over this roster. "Three quarters" of poor drafting, lack of humility and ignoring basic resource management put the team in a position where it needs a late game comeback ( pinning hopes on Cam Newton)

You can't outcoach poor drafting. You can't outspend your way out of poor drafting. You can't pass the buck forever with poor drafting.

Angry Bill's lack of humility cost you Patriots homers the best QB1 who has ever lived. And you thank him for it.

I don't think Brady left a sinking ship. I think he was voted off the island. I will still believe that a 43 year old (and next year a 44 year old) is a top QB in the NFL when I see it. At this point, you don't need to bash BB's drafting. It's implied whenever you post. As I posted previously, would you rather have a team that has drafted well and hasn't won squat . . . or a team that hasn't drafted well but has played in every other SB?

That being said, BB has had plenty of drafts where the guys that were drafted did very little . . . yet NE still kept on winning. Most years they would only find one guy that turned into much (while drafting at the end of the first round almost every year). In spite all of that, BB has been very successful overall, and coaches get graded by SB wins and their record . . . not how they drafted. So your contention that you can't win if you can't draft doesn't really hold water given that NE has not drafted well in a ton of other drafts. It remains to be seen how NE and BB will fare moving forward. You are taking the stance that the world is ending. Let's see how it plays out first.

 

[Blackbear]

It makes absolutely no sense for Brady to have gone elsewhere. It was a necessity for Brady ( who wanted to win, can't blame him) that could have been avoided had the Patriots simply drafted more efficiently. Yes, teams will miss on picks sometimes, but Belichick would routinely defy some generally accepted market realities because he likes cutting up sweatshirts and rubbing things in people's faces. If there was a better roster to put around Brady, then Brady would likely still be there.

One of the things that really stood out about John Elway was when he was asked about late game comeback prowess, he was refreshingly honest, he'd say if he'd done his job right the first three quarters, he wouldn't put himself AND HIS TEAM in the position to play the hero late game.

Belichick THE COACH is a genius. He is required to flex that kind of genius often because Belichick THE DRAFTER drags him down. Here's the litmus test, if someone worked for Belichick The Coach and operated the way Belichick The Drafter does, Belichick The Coach would have fired him faster than Roger Goodell gets on his knees and shines Robert Kraft's shoes. But even a genius level guy needs a bit of luck. Brady is the best QB1 who has ever put a helmet on in the NFL. The rest of the AFC East has been in long term turmoil. The owner is one of the four most powerful/influential owners in their sport.

Belichick doesn't need to flex that genius if, like Elway, he did better legwork those first three quarters ( actually draft more in line with standard market based considerations)  Belichick just needs to be defiant for the sake of it.  He's become a lazy drafter as well. Let's take a Saban guy again and then become a tyrant to some kid because he can't run a Cover 1 like a ten year NFL veteran.

Belichick does things that he himself would justifying firing someone else over.

Brady left a sinking ship. Patriot homers need to feel as if either Belichick threw him off the boat or it was divorce based on two people who became roommates instead of partners but don't hate each other.

"I would rather be his whore than your wife"  - Rose from Titanic

There are massive questions all over this roster. "Three quarters" of poor drafting, lack of humility and ignoring basic resource management put the team in a position where it needs a late game comeback ( pinning hopes on Cam Newton)

You can't outcoach poor drafting. You can't outspend your way out of poor drafting. You can't pass the buck forever with poor drafting.

Angry Bill's lack of humility cost you Patriots homers the best QB1 who has ever lived. And you thank him for it.

Of course we do. Belichick kept him on the roster as the 4th qb when he was the rookie. We need to thank him. 
 

We need to thank him for staying with him even when Bledsoe came back from injury.

We need to thank him for managing the Pats to 9 Super Bowls and 6 wins. 
 

We need to thank him for building great rosters each and every season capable of leading the division.

We need to thank him for drafting good players despite being at the end of every draft over and over.

We need to thank him for his cleaver in game adjustments, managing the clock, etc... 

A lot to thank Belichick for. 

 

[Blackbear]

Here is an article that suggests that when ranking a metric, actual draft vs expected, the patriots rank 4th from 2000 to 2016. So we might need light fire under Bill’s #### to climb a few spots in these rankings.

There it is folks, pretty cut and dry, we need thank Belichick for doing well in the draft the last twenty years...

https://www.patspulpit.com/2020/4/7/21212150/bill-belichick-new-england-patriots-better-at-drafting-than-you-may-think

 

[Blackbear]

It makes absolutely no sense for Brady to have gone elsewhere. It was a necessity for Brady ( who wanted to win, can't blame him) that could have been avoided had the Patriots simply drafted more efficiently. Yes, teams will miss on picks sometimes, but Belichick would routinely defy some generally accepted market realities because he likes cutting up sweatshirts and rubbing things in people's faces. If there was a better roster to put around Brady, then Brady would likely still be there.

One of the things that really stood out about John Elway was when he was asked about late game comeback prowess, he was refreshingly honest, he'd say if he'd done his job right the first three quarters, he wouldn't put himself AND HIS TEAM in the position to play the hero late game.

Belichick THE COACH is a genius. He is required to flex that kind of genius often because Belichick THE DRAFTER drags him down. Here's the litmus test, if someone worked for Belichick The Coach and operated the way Belichick The Drafter does, Belichick The Coach would have fired him faster than Roger Goodell gets on his knees and shines Robert Kraft's shoes. But even a genius level guy needs a bit of luck. Brady is the best QB1 who has ever put a helmet on in the NFL. The rest of the AFC East has been in long term turmoil. The owner is one of the four most powerful/influential owners in their sport.

Belichick doesn't need to flex that genius if, like Elway, he did better legwork those first three quarters ( actually draft more in line with standard market based considerations)  Belichick just needs to be defiant for the sake of it.  He's become a lazy drafter as well. Let's take a Saban guy again and then become a tyrant to some kid because he can't run a Cover 1 like a ten year NFL veteran.

Belichick does things that he himself would justifying firing someone else over.

Brady left a sinking ship. Patriot homers need to feel as if either Belichick threw him off the boat or it was divorce based on two people who became roommates instead of partners but don't hate each other.

"I would rather be his whore than your wife"  - Rose from Titanic

There are massive questions all over this roster. "Three quarters" of poor drafting, lack of humility and ignoring basic resource management put the team in a position where it needs a late game comeback ( pinning hopes on Cam Newton)

You can't outcoach poor drafting. You can't outspend your way out of poor drafting. You can't pass the buck forever with poor drafting.

Angry Bill's lack of humility cost you Patriots homers the best QB1 who has ever lived. And you thank him for it.

I found another article from 2013 by bleacher report where they rank Patriots best drafting team... https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1579957-who-is-the-best-drafting-team-in-the-nfl

Now the argument could be that this is 7 years old. And since then the Patriots have only gone 86 - 26 for and 3 super bowl wins and one super bowl loss.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I'm not saying I definitely know what Bill is thinking.  I'm saying he certainly knows and isn't in some hem and haw outlook.  So you make the best guess of what hes thinking.  And it does seem obvious to me.

I'm sorry, I've been busy on some other stuff.

How are you saying this plays out for NE QBs this year?

 

[Biabreakable]

Keep fighting the good fight Anarchy.

My simplistic view on this is that you play the players who give you the best chance to win games.

Therefore Cam Newton is the day one starter for the Patriots.

Thats it.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Keep fighting the good fight Anarchy.

My simplistic view on this is that you play the players who give you the best chance to win games.

Therefore Cam Newton is the day one starter for the Patriots.

Thats it.

What fight is @Anarchy99 fighting?

If I understood him right, he's saying it's mostly unknown and there's reliable support for a huge range of outcomes. 

That's fine for message boards. For a real draft, it's not so good. Fortunately, not everyone is drafting this weekend. But some are. 

 

[Vandelay]

I'm sorry, I've been busy on some other stuff.

How are you saying this plays out for NE QBs this year?

I have a bunch of posts in here that articulate it pretty well but, in a word, Cam.

 

[Anarchy99]

It’s really not hard to understand. A healthy Cam that knows the playbook will start. Start assigning percentages to either of those and then Stidham becomes a possibility. Cam at 70% health and 40% of the playbook? Who knows?

 

[Joe Bryant]

Cast your vote here.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/786367-today-where-do-you-rank-cam-newton-and-jarrett-stidham-among-qb/

 

[Biabreakable]

What fight is @Anarchy99 fighting?

If I understood him right, he's saying it's mostly unknown and there's reliable support for a huge range of outcomes. 

That's fine for message boards. For a real draft, it's not so good. Fortunately, not everyone is drafting this weekend. But some are. 

He is fighting against ignorance by telling all sides of the story. To me thats fighting the good fight. Keeping people informed. Turning over every rock, and considering all of the possibilities.

I am giving respect to Anarchy knowing a lot more about the Patriots than I would ever want to, then pivoting to a occams razor point of view to cut through the fog of war created by all of those details.

 

[Joe Bryant]

He is fighting against ignorance by telling all sides of the story. To me thats fighting the good fight. Keeping people informed. Turning over every rock, and considering all of the possibilities.

I am giving respect to Anarchy knowing a lot more about the Patriots than I would ever want to, then pivoting to a occams razor point of view to cut through the fog of war created by all of those details.

For sure. I think considering all the possibilities is super important. 

It'll be an interesting summer as put those into the decision process and come up with a decision on where to rank the QBs. Should be fun. 

 

[Vandelay]

He is fighting against ignorance by telling all sides of the story. To me thats fighting the good fight. Keeping people informed. Turning over every rock, and considering all of the possibilities.

I am giving respect to Anarchy knowing a lot more about the Patriots than I would ever want to, then pivoting to a occams razor point of view to cut through the fog of war created by all of those details.

Horses, not zebras.

 

[Biabreakable]

My favorite Cam Newton moment

 

[Wise Old Owl]

It’s really not hard to understand. A healthy Cam that knows the playbook will start. Start assigning percentages to either of those and then Stidham becomes a possibility. Cam at 70% health and 40% of the playbook? Who knows?

I think you might be overvaluing this. It is not like they are taking the TB playbook and teaching it to Cam. They will redesign their system to fit Cam's skillset and focus on packages that are more important. 

Cam is also not a rookie. He's worked with some experienced coordinators like Norv and Shula. He should be able to pick up the playbook.