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Cam Newton to Pats (3 Viewers)

Iceman03 said:
I’ve posted it here and in the Stidham thread this was a done deal in April. This was about passing a physical per Scott Barrett on twitter. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Stidham outright cut in favor of Hoyer. Pats have gone out of there way to only carry two QB’s on the roster for years now.
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Thanks. Can you share links for that? 

 
One thing I don't know - As former Auburn guys, do Stidham and Newton already have a relationship? I'd expect them to. Do you know?

Not sure how much that matters. But could be interesting. 

 
Iceman03 said:
I’ve posted it here and in the Stidham thread this was a done deal in April. This was about passing a physical per Scott Barrett on twitter. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Stidham outright cut in favor of Hoyer. Pats have gone out of there way to only carry two QB’s on the roster for years now.
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I believe both sides have been communicating since he was released, but I don’t believe it was a done deal in April. From what I have seen, he is signing for the league minimum (or close to it).  I can’t see Cam agreeing to that Low dollar contract 3 months ago. 

 
Tool said:
Cutting Stidham seems highly improbable. They kept 2 Qb's b/c they had Brady who never (except for the 1 year) got hurt. Now they have Newton who has tons of health questions which almost forces you to keep 3 Qbs even if they thought Stidham sucks which I don't think they do.
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It’s Bill Belichick roster construction. 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

Dr. Octopus said:
Did't they cut Hoyer to keep Stidham last offseason? Why would they keep Hoyer over Stidham - seems like a bad move for roster building.
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Seems you are right and I didn’t take that into account. That being said they were apt to trade Garappolo and Brisett but I believe both were at the end of rookie deals. I would probably give Stidham the edge just being on a long term contract and all things being equal.

 
Cam Newton fantasy football outlook and projection as a New England Patriot

...New England has called a pass-first offense during 11 of the past 13 seasons, but the tea leaves suggest a switch to a run-first attack in 2020. Those leaves include the Newton signing, the league's heaviest financial investment in the guard position and a pair of third-round draft picks spent on tight ends. 

...keep in mind that Newton had arguably his best season as a passer the last time he was healthy. During that 2018 campaign with the Carolina Panthers, Newton was more conservative (career-low 7.3 yards for average depth of throw), but that led to a career-high 68% completion percentage and a solid 7.2 YPA. Newton was still an effective rusher that season (488 yards and four touchdowns on 101 attempts in 14 games) and finished in the top eight in fantasy points per game for the seventh time in eight seasons.

Last season was a different story, as a preseason foot injury limited Newton to two games. Newton was not the same player, carrying the ball only five times for negative-2 yards after ranking no lower than fourth among QBs in rushing attempts, yardage and touchdowns in each of the previous eight seasons.

...Stephania Bell's health outlook: Heading into the 2019 season, the Panthers weren't worried about Newton's shoulder injury that had caused him to miss the final two games of the 2018 campaign and required surgery. He had rehabbed diligently, worked on the little things to help make him a better thrower (especially better than the one he had been when the shoulder was not cooperating, which had forced him to literally torque the rest of his body to try to deliver the ball). 

...once he injured his left foot, he was never the same. Even though it was a stable, midfoot injury and therefore appeared as if it would get better with time, it ultimately did not. Newton opted for surgery, undergoing a modified (less complex) Lisfranc procedure. Given the coronavirus pandemic, all we have to go by as far as his workouts is Newton's Instagram account, but that actually gives a pretty good indication that his foot is fully recovered...
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Go to the link for the full read.

Couple of things I find interesting.

Pats were/are converting offensive philosophy from pass to run-first.

Reports indicate Cam's foot is fully recovered.

My take.  If Cam is healthy then the evil empire continues.

 
I took a gander at different opinions on the situation between last night and this morning. There definitely are differing opinions, but it looks like the majority of national media outlets are flat out running with Cam is the starter, period, end of report. They have been discussing his MVP season, leading the Panthers to SB, and his 45 TD year (with little mention of the subsequent 5 years). Their narrative is NE gets an MVP level QB that puts them right back into SB contention.

Local / regional guys are mostly saying that Cam will get added to the mix to compete with Stidham or Stidham is still the projected starter and Cam initially is the clear backup. The local guys are quick to first point out his shoulder and foot surgeries, missed time, and his 23-23 record since his SB appearance, and a bunch of turnovers. Several people feel that Newton will take Hoyer's roster spot. Apparently there are some folks that feel Stidham is a better passer and is also mobile, so unless they want to completely remodel the offense for one year of Cam then Stidham will have a leg up. A couple of people even said the money is so low for Newton that if he came in and wasn't fully healed and was slow to grasp the offense that he could be cut before the start of the season.

The middle ground (national guys that cover or covered NE) seem to think that if Cam is healthy and learns the playbook that he would likely beat out Stidham for the starting job. 

I think there is a difference in saying NE wants to run the ball more vs. installing a run heavy offense. The Pats with Brady would have loved to run the ball (when they were able to have a strong running game) and use that to set up play action. That's different than calling 2/3 running plays including and wanting your QB to run 125+ times a year. I hear a couple of analysts today saying Cam would have plenty of dump off passes to NE . . . but I always felt Cam was pretty inaccurate in making those shorter throws.

Bill being Bill, no one will get awarded a job just by showing up. So whomever performs best will earn the job and be expected to execute to keep the job. But there are a lot of differenct opinions out there on how things will play out.

 
Belichick is smart enough to know that running the ball is not necessary to "set up" play action. He likes to run the ball because it controls the clock, rests the defense, and makes games shorter which is an inherent advantage for the coaching staff that can more effectively make adjustments. 

 
I agree with the sentiment that he won't play if he doesn't know much of the playbook but I am wondering if Bellichick will try to adapt the offense a little to try to accommodate Cam if it will give them the best chance to win. If Cam is healthy and they can light a fire under him then I think he will play with the proverbial chip on his shoulder and will be motivated to prove everyone wrong which could lead to a great season. Based on the last bunch of years I don't know if this is possible. I know people point to the fact that he is only 31 but his body has taken a beating by both the way he plays and the horrible offensive lines he had many of his years playing for Carolina.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I took a gander at different opinions on the situation between last night and this morning. There definitely are differing opinions, but it looks like the majority of national media outlets are flat out running with Cam is the starter, period, end of report. They have been discussing his MVP season, leading the Panthers to SB, and his 45 TD year (with little mention of the subsequent 5 years). Their narrative is NE gets an MVP level QB that puts them right back into SB contention.

Local / regional guys are mostly saying that Cam will get added to the mix to compete with Stidham or Stidham is still the projected starter and Cam initially is the clear backup. The local guys are quick to first point out his shoulder and foot surgeries, missed time, and his 23-23 record since his SB appearance, and a bunch of turnovers. Several people feel that Newton will take Hoyer's roster spot. Apparently there are some folks that feel Stidham is a better passer and is also mobile, so unless they want to completely remodel the offense for one year of Cam then Stidham will have a leg up. A couple of people even said the money is so low for Newton that if he came in and wasn't fully healed and was slow to grasp the offense that he could be cut before the start of the season.

The middle ground (national guys that cover or covered NE) seem to think that if Cam is healthy and learns the playbook that he would likely beat out Stidham for the starting job. 

I think there is a difference in saying NE wants to run the ball more vs. installing a run heavy offense. The Pats with Brady would have loved to run the ball (when they were able to have a strong running game) and use that to set up play action. That's different than calling 2/3 running plays including and wanting your QB to run 125+ times a year. I hear a couple of analysts today saying Cam would have plenty of dump off passes to NE . . . but I always felt Cam was pretty inaccurate in making those shorter throws.

Bill being Bill, no one will get awarded a job just by showing up. So whomever performs best will earn the job and be expected to execute to keep the job. But there are a lot of differenct opinions out there on how things will play out.
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The bolded narrative ignores that Cam just has not been that level of QB for a few years. Lots of bad, nostalgic takes like this on my feeds here in Charlotte. If he is healthy, still has arm stregnth, and can adapt to a new system then I think there is a lot of upside here. Let's not fool ourselves into thinking those three are a given. Although, at points, he showed the ability to adapt to the shorter passing game in recent years.

 
yoman said:
I agree with the sentiment that he won't play if he doesn't know much of the playbook but I am wondering if Bellichick will try to adapt the offense a little to try to accommodate Cam if it will give them the best chance to win. If Cam is healthy and they can light a fire under him then I think he will play with the proverbial chip on his shoulder and will be motivated to prove everyone wrong which could lead to a great season. Based on the last bunch of years I don't know if this is possible. I know people point to the fact that he is only 31 but his body has taken a beating by both the way he plays and the horrible offensive lines he had many of his years playing for Carolina.
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I'd be shocked if they do not change the offense. Good coaching staffs adjust their schemes to fit their personnel. The Pats have a great coaching staff.

 
Just Win Baby said:
I'd be shocked if they do not change the offense. Good coaching staffs adjust their schemes to fit their personnel. The Pats have a great coaching staff.
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I agree but it sounds like a few people in this thread seem to insinuate that he needs to learn the entire playbook or Stidham will get the job which I was the point I was trying to get across. I should have said "how much" not "if".

 
ZWK said:
That's true of QB passing but not QB running.

Of the top 50 QB seasons in rushing yards per game (since 1970), 4 were by QBs age 30+. Vick at #6 (age 30), Vick at #18 (age 31), Vick at #20 (age 33), and Steve Young at #41 (age 30). That's it.
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Hmm I sorted your querry by age and I see Doug Flutie at 37 Steve Young at 37 Rich Gannon at 35 Vick 30 to 33 Kordell Stewart 31 and Alex Smith at age 31

11 out of the 50 players in the sample.

I don't think this search covers QB who were runners more in the early years of their careers who were still starters after age 30 but did not meet the 30 yards per game average.

Russell Wilson for example.

 
GordonGekko said:
Newton is past the point to prove anyone wrong.

He's beyond his optimal developmental window. His flaws are ones that will likely carry through the rest of his NFL career, its just how it works.

He's not a great decision maker. Never was. He doesn't read the field very well. Never has. His mechanics are often inconsistent. That's being generous.

If you put him in the same offense Brady was asked to run for years and years, Newton is going to cough up the ball. A lot. When the NFL decided to neuter all defenses for the sake of ratings and as a cheap cash grab to appease the networks, defenses had to adjust. Now they will take bigger risks to generate turnovers.

If Newton can't protect the ball, he won't play. When you have a team with a lot of questions and years of hazy drafting, you take a core issue ( ball security/turnover differential) and you make an already critical issue a true red line conflict.

Newton has done nothing to show he can run the same offense that Brady ran ( To be fair, 90 percent of all QB1s in the league couldn't either)

For Newton, it's not changing the offense, it's scrapping it.  It's going to be about simplifying a plan to the point where Newton can't throw at the wrong colored jerseys anymore.
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Thanks. Right now, among QBs, where would your rank him?

 
GordonGekko said:
If Newton can't protect the ball, he won't play. When you have a team with a lot of questions and years of hazy drafting, you take a core issue ( ball security/turnover differential) and you make an already critical issue a true red line conflict.
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This is going to be what makes the decision (for Stidham too). That defense is so good they will rely on a QB to protect the football. 2015 aside, that has not been Cam's stregnth. 

 
How our guys were seeing this last night. Thanks for the reminder @The Frankman

Here we go...

This one has multiple angles. Our Sigmund Bloom had this: "Cam Newton should be a low QB1 because of the running ability and goal-line love. Takes the edge off of what little appeal there was left in Michel. Pass attempts should top out around 500. McCaffrey's 2018 should pump a little life back into James White 2020 FF outlook. There's no one in the Greg Olsen or Kelvin Benjamin mold on the roster, but perhaps if we hear that Harry is being molded as a big slot receiver that could be interesting. At least we know Cam will throw to contested-catch receivers."

Also I can't believe the league let Belichick do this. I do not understand why one of the best quarterbacks of this era was allowed to be on the street for so long. if he's broken, so be it, the upside he adds to your offense if healthy is worth the $ to see what happens.

Also pay attention when Bill Belichick gushes about someone. From 2017:

"I think when you're talking about mobile quarterbacks -- guys that are tough to handle, can throw, run, make good decisions ... -- I would put him at the top of the list," Belichick said Wednesday. "Not saying there aren't a lot of other good players that do that, but I would say of all the guys we played recently in the last couple of years, I think he's the hardest guy to (defend). He makes good decisions, can run. He's strong. He's hard to tackle. He can do a lot of different things. He can beat you in a lot of different ways. We saw that in the game in 2013. I would put him at the top of the list. I'm not saying the other guys aren't a problem, because they are. But he's maybe public enemy No. 1."

On the other side, Clayton Gray had this: "I know we all love the player Cam Newton once was, but this contract is a bare-minimum, incentive-laden deal for a quarterback no one wanted to throw money at. Before we make N'Keal Harry a top-20 receiver, let's also accept the possibility that Newton doesn't have it anymore. Before we anoint Newton as the unquestioned starter, let's also accept the possibility that the contract is structured so that New England could cut Newton in the preseason if they are happy with Stidham."

We'll likely know more here soon. One thing's for sure: this is going to be fun.
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Anarchy99 said:
NE apparently was also considering Kaepernick. As I said in one of the other threads, I think people are jumping the gun that Cam will start Week 1.
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I wonder too.

Where do you rank Newton right now in this early time among QBs if you were drafting today?

Where would you rank him if Belichick declared him the starter?

 
GordonGekko said:
Newton is past the point to prove anyone wrong.

He's beyond his optimal developmental window. His flaws are ones that will likely carry through the rest of his NFL career, its just how it works.

He's not a great decision maker. Never was. He doesn't read the field very well. Never has. His mechanics are often inconsistent. That's being generous.

If you put him in the same offense Brady was asked to run for years and years, Newton is going to cough up the ball. A lot. When the NFL decided to neuter all defenses for the sake of ratings and as a cheap cash grab to appease the networks, defenses had to adjust. Now they will take bigger risks to generate turnovers.

If Newton can't protect the ball, he won't play. When you have a team with a lot of questions and years of hazy drafting, you take a core issue ( ball security/turnover differential) and you make an already critical issue a true red line conflict.

Newton has done nothing to show he can run the same offense that Brady ran ( To be fair, 90 percent of all QB1s in the league couldn't either)

For Newton, it's not changing the offense, it's scrapping it.  It's going to be about simplifying a plan to the point where Newton can't throw at the wrong colored jerseys anymore.
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Newton is 68-55-1 in his career (.552). He led Carolina to 3 12+ win seasons in 8 seasons as the primary starting QB. He won an MVP and got his team to the Super Bowl. For a guy as flawed as you say, that's not a bad resume. Now consider that he played that entire period for Ron Rivera... Rivera seems like a solid coach, but he ain't Belichick.

You seem to think there was no utility in the signing. I guess we will see.

 
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks @Blackbear

Where do you other folks see him among QBs?
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I think somewhere bordering on QB1 status. Around QB12 or so. I'd point out that usually when you get to that point in the list, the difference gets smaller and smaller. The gap between QB12 and QB24 was ~2.0 FF points/game last year in FFPC scoring. We'd all rather have the 2 points, but it really doesn't take much for a QB to bump himself higher on that list, or lower. Just a couple extra goal line TDs gets a QB nearly one fantasy point per game.

I'm of the opinion he will be the starter. Yes he will have to show it in camp, but I am banking he will. I am also assuming they will adapt the playbook a bit to fit Cam. As such I wouldn't expect a 31 year old Cam to be running as much, or as effectively, as he used to, but I would imagine he gets a fair amount of those goal line looks, and I absolutely think that can bump him up into a higher tier than that roughly QB12-15 cutoff. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
Newton is 68-55-1 in his career (.552). He led Carolina to 3 12+ win seasons in 8 seasons as the primary starting QB. He won an MVP and got his team to the Super Bowl. For a guy as flawed as you say, that's not a bad resume. Now consider that he played that entire period for Ron Rivera... Rivera seems like a solid coach, but he ain't Belichick.

You seem to think there was no utility in the signing. I guess we will see.
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He's also 0-8 in his last 8 NFL starts. Playing in an offense/terminology with experience in and with more talent on offense surrounding him IMO. 

I'm taking the "what have you done for me lately" approach here that the rest of NFL is using. Rotoworld seems to be giving Newton the Week 1 job. I'm not. He's going to have to seriously outplay Stidham/Hoyer in a new NE offense to win the job IMO. Does NE completely scrap their offense to cater to 31 year old Cam Newton? I think that's what they'll have to do to make him effective in what's likely IMO to be an abbreviated training camp/preseason.

There's really no way to disagree with the ranking of those that believe he'll be the Week 1 starter. I'm just not handing him the job myself because I really question if they'll overhaul the offense (or how effective Cam will be if they dont). Training camp shall reveal all.

Some really great points by @GordonGekko  :thumbup:  

 
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flabbergasted, even though it's a slamdunk talentwise. do we know the level of pre-signing contact/discussion between Cam & BB? i just can't see Belichick responding positively to a microgram of "i'm not hearing that" from the Kyrie Irving of football

 
GordonGekko said:
Newton is past the point to prove anyone wrong.

He's beyond his optimal developmental window. His flaws are ones that will likely carry through the rest of his NFL career, its just how it works.

He's not a great decision maker. Never was. He doesn't read the field very well. Never has. His mechanics are often inconsistent. That's being generous.

If you put him in the same offense Brady was asked to run for years and years, Newton is going to cough up the ball. A lot. When the NFL decided to neuter all defenses for the sake of ratings and as a cheap cash grab to appease the networks, defenses had to adjust. Now they will take bigger risks to generate turnovers.

If Newton can't protect the ball, he won't play. When you have a team with a lot of questions and years of hazy drafting, you take a core issue ( ball security/turnover differential) and you make an already critical issue a true red line conflict.

Newton has done nothing to show he can run the same offense that Brady ran ( To be fair, 90 percent of all QB1s in the league couldn't either)

For Newton, it's not changing the offense, it's scrapping it.  It's going to be about simplifying a plan to the point where Newton can't throw at the wrong colored jerseys anymore.
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Do you doubt McDaniel/BB's ability to cover up someone like Cam's flaws?

If he's healthy, he truly does not need to run anymore. He's going to have a guy like Harry to chuck the ball downfield to. And I don't for a second doubt some McCaffery-esque magic can be created with a guy like James White. He has some great pieces already in place and he'll have more time behind that O-line than he's ever seen in his life.

 
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So, you are telling me that the best coach in football just got a monster of a human being, former MVP, former first overall draft pick, who as recently as 2017 finished as QB3, and just had almost an entire year off to heal and rehab.  Oh, and he's over 10 years younger than Tom Brady.

I'm a buyer at a low level starter, high level backup fantasy QB.  There's a chance he gets hurt again.  There's also a chance that the chip on his healed shoulder is big enough to return the Pats to glory.

 
This seems like another can't lose deal for the Pats. After watching Cam last season, his arm looked shot on any throws other than short dump offs. But maybe he is truly healthy again. Either way they don't have to pay much to find out. 

If he is the starter, I would rank him in the QB15-17 range with that offense and schedule. 

And even after losing Brady, somehow Belichick still ends up with an intriguing option at QB in the AFC East at least for this season, maybe even the best QB in the division if he's healthy. Cam had no offers from any other team which means they don't see value. But it also means one of the other 3 AFC East teams could have signed him on a similar low-cost, prove-it deal, just so the Pats couldn't. The incentive laden deal is for a max of $7.5M which is essentially backup money. If he earns the full deal, he would rank as QB27 for cost and he would likely finish much higher in production. 

 
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Yenrub said:
Apparently Norv Turner told Bill that Cam can still play.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/06/29/norv-turner-told-bill-belichick-that-cam-newton-can-still-play/

Cam’s 1st 8 games in Turner’s system (which was new to Cam at the time and the last time we saw him healthy)

1893 yards / 67.3% competition / 15 TD / 4 INT / 108.8 passer rating / 4 rushing TD
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I just checked my two dynasty leagues (don't own him in either, so didn't remember). He was QB4 in ppg in both (using ppg since not all teams had byes in that window).

:popcorn:   

 
Yenrub said:
Apparently Norv Turner told Bill that Cam can still play.
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From above, Belichick thought he could play too. From 2017:

"I think when you're talking about mobile quarterbacks -- guys that are tough to handle, can throw, run, make good decisions ... -- I would put him at the top of the list," Belichick said Wednesday. "Not saying there aren't a lot of other good players that do that, but I would say of all the guys we played recently in the last couple of years, I think he's the hardest guy to (defend). He makes good decisions, can run. He's strong. He's hard to tackle. He can do a lot of different things. He can beat you in a lot of different ways. We saw that in the game in 2013. I would put him at the top of the list. I'm not saying the other guys aren't a problem, because they are. But he's maybe public enemy No. 1."

 
Joe Bryant said:
From above, Belichick thought he could play too. From 2017:

"I think when you're talking about mobile quarterbacks -- guys that are tough to handle, can throw, run, make good decisions ... -- I would put him at the top of the list," Belichick said Wednesday. "Not saying there aren't a lot of other good players that do that, but I would say of all the guys we played recently in the last couple of years, I think he's the hardest guy to (defend). He makes good decisions, can run. He's strong. He's hard to tackle. He can do a lot of different things. He can beat you in a lot of different ways. We saw that in the game in 2013. I would put him at the top of the list. I'm not saying the other guys aren't a problem, because they are. But he's maybe public enemy No. 1."
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I think Cam has only played against Bill twice, but he put some good numbers in those games. I am sure Bill hasn’t forgotten.

Game 1 (2013) 19-28 for 67% 209 yards passing 3 TD and 1 INT (124 rating) plus 62 yards rushing

Game 2 (2017) 22-29 for 75% 316 yards passing 3 TD and 0 INT (130 rating) plus 44 rushing yards and a TD

Panthers won both games

 
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You don't sign a superstar personality like Cam Newton to come in and be a distraction while sitting on the bench.

Belichick adjusts to the talent he has to work with.  The offense will be designed with Cam's strengths in mind.

Unless he falls on his face in camp or is not healthy, he's the starter.

 
Biabreakable said:
ZWK said:
That's true of QB passing but not QB running.

Of the top 50 QB seasons in rushing yards per game (since 1970), 4 were by QBs age 30+. Vick at #6 (age 30), Vick at #18 (age 31), Vick at #20 (age 33), and Steve Young at #41 (age 30). That's it.
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Hmm I sorted your querry by age and I see Doug Flutie at 37 Steve Young at 37 Rich Gannon at 35 Vick 30 to 33 Kordell Stewart 31 and Alex Smith at age 31

11 out of the 50 players in the sample.

I don't think this search covers QB who were runners more in the early years of their careers who were still starters after age 30 but did not meet the 30 yards per game average.

Russell Wilson for example.
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The query (for QB seasons with 30+ rushing ypg) had 82 hits, so it's 11 out of 82 players who were 30+. I was just reporting the ages of the top 50. The query is sorted by rushing ypg so it's just the first 50 guys in the list. Flutie's age 37 season ranks 70th, etc.

Many QBs continue to run the ball some in their 30s, but Vick was the only one who continued to put up the sort of big rushing numbers that we often see from young QBs. Russell Wilson fits in there. Over his first 4 years in the NFL (age 24-27) Wilson averaged 103/608/3 rushing per 16 games. Over his last 2 years (age 30-31) he averaged 71/359/1.5. That's about 70% as many attempts, 60% as many yards, and 50% as many TDs as he used to. He still offers something as a runner but not like he used to. Daniel Jones level, rather than Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, or Deshaun Watson level.

 
Joe Bryant said:
I wonder too.

Where do you rank Newton right now in this early time among QBs if you were drafting today?

Where would you rank him if Belichick declared him the starter?
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For starters, Bill will not be announcing who is starter will be, so that is off the table. I have been absorbing as much as I can from lots of different places. I can't remember what I posted where, so this may be a rehashing of info . . .

- There have been reports that NE was debating between Newtown and Kaepernick, which leads some local analysts to believe Cam will be considered the QB2 in NE (and taking Hoyer's job).
- Similarly, if NE really intended to sign Cam as their starter, they would have done so at the start of free agency and not wait 3 months to sign him. That way he would have had more than double the prep time he will have now. They had more money available back then but used it on other players in the interim.
- I heard some discussion today that due to the minimal amount of the contract, NE could see what Newton has to offer and just release him if his health is an issue, if he doesn't grasp the playbook, or if he looks rusty. Mind you, this was meant as an actual outcome and not just thrown out there as a hot take.
- I have heard multiple people say Stidham is still going to get first crack at starting and Newtown will have to outplay him to win the job. That is a discussion for people to have all on its own.
- As a side note, several NE defenders have been very complimentary of Stidham, indicating that he was able to extend plays and throw into tight windows in practice last year (which by extension was something they didn't see Brady doing in practice).
- Another potential issue is if NE completely reinvents themselves offensively for Cam, there is a legitimate chance he moves on after this year. BB is most likely not going to want to pay full market value for a QB. The point being, by riding with Cam, they won't know what they have in Stidham, Cam could easily walk, and then they have no solution at QB again next year.
- Many people are citing positives about Cam that really aren't particularly relevant in 2020 . . . Top overall pick 10 years ago . . . MVP and 15-1 five years ago. Sam Bradford was the #1 pick the season before and he's not even in the league anymore. Five years ago, Doug Martin, Darren McFadden, and Chris Ivory ranked in the Top 5 in rushing and they aren't in the league now either. Five years in football is an eternity.
- In one of these threads, someone posted that Norv Turner gave Bill his blessing on Cam still being able to play (going 6-2 to start the 2018 season). Since then, Newton has gone 0-8, with 11 turnovers and 25 sacks in those games (and the offense dropping from 29 ppg to 19 ppg). He also sustained injuries that knocked him out of two seasons. Even though he was learning a new scheme, he was still playing with guys he had played with before. Moving on to NE, it's a complete redo without any familiar faces.

Certainly Newton COULD emerge as the starter, but I would be very hesitant to anoint him that yet. I would guess Stidham would be a 2-1 or 3-2 favorite to start Week 1 . . . maybe better if Cam struggles some to learn the plays and formations (or is not fully healed up).

Whether the NE QB was Brady, Stidham, or Newton this year, I did not see the Patriots offense as being anything to write home about. IMO, they are destined to be about the #15 offense in football. If Cam were to assume the starting job in NE, I doubt NE would want to expose him to the rigors of 125 or 130 carries like he had in Carolina. I don't think Cam is someone that will move the fantasy needle for the NE receivers. So I don't see a ton of passing yardage or passing TD for Newton . . . nor would I project anywhere near the rushing totals we have come to expect from Cam circa his best years in Carolina. Lower passing totals + lower rushing totals = lower fantasy ranking.

I don't love the weapons in NE, so I would predict lower totals across the board even if he started Week 1 and played all 16 games (if we even get a 16 game season). I would guess if somehow Cam were starting from Week 1, I would peg him for around QB 13-15 (and that is also suggesting he can stay healthy all season . . . which is also not a given). By comparison, I would have projected Stidham at QB 16-18.

Bottom line, I don't think we will know what the Patriots plan to do at QB until they line up for their first series on Opening Day. I would expect that drafters will just run with Cam being the starter from jump street and draft him accordingly. In redraft leagues, I would guess he will get drafted in the QB 8-10 range . . . which to me seems too early. I would also think that drafting a tandem of Newton and Stidham would land decent fantasy backup numbers . . . but why spend two draft picks for that? If it were me, I would probably avoid the NE quarterbacks (and probably anyone from NE for that matter). If pressed to pick one or the other, I would probably take Stidham in the very late rounds as a deep flyer that might end up starting the whole season.

 
If healthy I see no logical reason that Stidham would possibly start over Newton. 

i get that maybe some are invested in Stidham. But Cam is a former MVP. An experienced starter in the NFL & a proven winner.

I find it fascinating that this is even a debate. Listening to sports radio on my drive this AM, they were discussing AFC east teams & when the pats came up they spoke of Newton as the stater, like it’s wasn’t even a thing. 

thats where I’m at with it. If he’s healthy, he’s gonna start for the Patriots. I can’t think of any reason he wouldn’t be.

 
ZWK said:
The query (for QB seasons with 30+ rushing ypg) had 82 hits, so it's 11 out of 82 players who were 30+. I was just reporting the ages of the top 50. The query is sorted by rushing ypg so it's just the first 50 guys in the list. Flutie's age 37 season ranks 70th, etc.

Many QBs continue to run the ball some in their 30s, but Vick was the only one who continued to put up the sort of big rushing numbers that we often see from young QBs. Russell Wilson fits in there. Over his first 4 years in the NFL (age 24-27) Wilson averaged 103/608/3 rushing per 16 games. Over his last 2 years (age 30-31) he averaged 71/359/1.5. That's about 70% as many attempts, 60% as many yards, and 50% as many TDs as he used to. He still offers something as a runner but not like he used to. Daniel Jones level, rather than Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, or Deshaun Watson level.
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Ah I see.

I don't think this answers the question of how well QB who rely on rushing stats for some of their production age. I think the 30 yard per game threshold is a bit high

Cam Newton showed a lot of progress as a passer in 2018 after the additions of CMC and  DJ Moore. He completed 68% of his passes that year which is kind of unheard of for his career. That suggests to me that Newton could change his game.

He may not have 100 rushing attempts in a season again now that he is older/

 
Man, I really think some people are overthinking this.

Yes, of course, Newton will have to outplay Stidham and Hoyer to start. That is a given. IMO the only question is whether or not Newton will be healthy when that competition is going on. If he is, IMO there is very little chance that he fails to win that competition.

So, will he be healthy? Well, on the one hand, it seems like the fact that the Pats signed him indicates they think he is healthy or is very likely to be. That can be countered by pointing to the minimal contract, so we don't really have anything definitive. But it seems to me that the Patriots expect him to be healthy enough. He could always get re-injured, but my expectation is that he is healthy enough to win the competition and start week 1. After that, there is no meaningful way to predict how likely it is he remains healthy and thus keeps starting.

It seems people are completely underrating the quality of the coaching staff here, and their role in making the offense work for Newton. McDaniel has experience trying to craft an offense for Tebow... and he isn't even a poor man's Newton. When was the last time anyone doubted Belichick and was right?

We know the last time Newton played healthy for a meaningful stretch of games was in 2018, and he was QB4 over 8 games. That was 2 years and 2 injuries ago, so perhaps he won't regain that level. But so what? He doesn't need to get close to that to be great value for both the Pats and for fantasy owners.

I am not a Cam owner, and, frankly, I have never been a fan of his, either in terms of his style of play or personality. I am also not a Pats fan, and hate the idea of them getting a boost at QB in the wake of Brady's departure. But that doesn't stop me from seeing immense value here.

 
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Blackbear said:
Scroll forty percent. But basically the pats guys are pressing him and he gives great review of Cam. He specifically talks about him being an artist vs. a computer processor QB. I think this is what his message was. Is that he isn’t a processor, but he is an artist. 
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He’s also a leader on the field. I don’t know about Stidham, but Newton is a dude who can rally a team. I seent it. 

 
Vandelay said:
You don't sign a superstar personality like Cam Newton to come in and be a distraction while sitting on the bench.

Belichick adjusts to the talent he has to work with.  The offense will be designed with Cam's strengths in mind.
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Exactly. Never forget BB learned under Parcells who understood that you had to have two sets of players: your difference-makers; and then everyone else. You tailor a playbook to difference-makers. And you even treat them differently off the field.

Reminds me of classic story, I think BB shared it on The Two Bills doc:

Back in their Giants days, BB was running the D and LT was 20 minutes or so late for a meeting. BB was of course pissed but didn't do anything. He wanted to talk to his boss first. So later in the day he goes to Parcells and says "Hey, I just want you know, we had a D meeting and LT showed up 20 minutes late."

And Parcells just sits for a minute, looks at him and says: "Why did you start without LT?"

ETA:

It was on the Top 100 Players breakdown. BB tells it better than me. :)

 
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