I wonder too.
Where do you rank Newton right now in this early time among QBs if you were drafting today?
Where would you rank him if Belichick declared him the starter?
For starters, Bill will not be announcing who is starter will be, so that is off the table. I have been absorbing as much as I can from lots of different places. I can't remember what I posted where, so this may be a rehashing of info . . .
- There have been reports that NE was debating between Newtown and Kaepernick, which leads some local analysts to believe Cam will be considered the QB2 in NE (and taking Hoyer's job).
- Similarly, if NE really intended to sign Cam as their starter, they would have done so at the start of free agency and not wait 3 months to sign him. That way he would have had more than double the prep time he will have now. They had more money available back then but used it on other players in the interim.
- I heard some discussion today that due to the minimal amount of the contract, NE could see what Newton has to offer and just release him if his health is an issue, if he doesn't grasp the playbook, or if he looks rusty. Mind you, this was meant as an actual outcome and not just thrown out there as a hot take.
- I have heard multiple people say Stidham is still going to get first crack at starting and Newtown will have to outplay him to win the job. That is a discussion for people to have all on its own.
- As a side note, several NE defenders have been very complimentary of Stidham, indicating that he was able to extend plays and throw into tight windows in practice last year (which by extension was something they didn't see Brady doing in practice).
- Another potential issue is if NE completely reinvents themselves offensively for Cam, there is a legitimate chance he moves on after this year. BB is most likely not going to want to pay full market value for a QB. The point being, by riding with Cam, they won't know what they have in Stidham, Cam could easily walk, and then they have no solution at QB again next year.
- Many people are citing positives about Cam that really aren't particularly relevant in 2020 . . . Top overall pick 10 years ago . . . MVP and 15-1 five years ago. Sam Bradford was the #1 pick the season before and he's not even in the league anymore. Five years ago, Doug Martin, Darren McFadden, and Chris Ivory ranked in the Top 5 in rushing and they aren't in the league now either. Five years in football is an eternity.
- In one of these threads, someone posted that Norv Turner gave Bill his blessing on Cam still being able to play (going 6-2 to start the 2018 season). Since then, Newton has gone 0-8, with 11 turnovers and 25 sacks in those games (and the offense dropping from 29 ppg to 19 ppg). He also sustained injuries that knocked him out of two seasons. Even though he was learning a new scheme, he was still playing with guys he had played with before. Moving on to NE, it's a complete redo without any familiar faces.
Certainly Newton COULD emerge as the starter, but I would be very hesitant to anoint him that yet. I would guess Stidham would be a 2-1 or 3-2 favorite to start Week 1 . . . maybe better if Cam struggles some to learn the plays and formations (or is not fully healed up).
Whether the NE QB was Brady, Stidham, or Newton this year, I did not see the Patriots offense as being anything to write home about. IMO, they are destined to be about the #15 offense in football. If Cam were to assume the starting job in NE, I doubt NE would want to expose him to the rigors of 125 or 130 carries like he had in Carolina. I don't think Cam is someone that will move the fantasy needle for the NE receivers. So I don't see a ton of passing yardage or passing TD for Newton . . . nor would I project anywhere near the rushing totals we have come to expect from Cam circa his best years in Carolina. Lower passing totals + lower rushing totals = lower fantasy ranking.
I don't love the weapons in NE, so I would predict lower totals across the board even if he started Week 1 and played all 16 games (if we even get a 16 game season). I would guess if somehow Cam were starting from Week 1, I would peg him for around QB 13-15 (and that is also suggesting he can stay healthy all season . . . which is also not a given). By comparison, I would have projected Stidham at QB 16-18.
Bottom line, I don't think we will know what the Patriots plan to do at QB until they line up for their first series on Opening Day. I would expect that drafters will just run with Cam being the starter from jump street and draft him accordingly. In redraft leagues, I would guess he will get drafted in the QB 8-10 range . . . which to me seems too early. I would also think that drafting a tandem of Newton and Stidham would land decent fantasy backup numbers . . . but why spend two draft picks for that? If it were me, I would probably avoid the NE quarterbacks (and probably anyone from NE for that matter). If pressed to pick one or the other, I would probably take Stidham in the very late rounds as a deep flyer that might end up starting the whole season.