OK, so some disclosure here: I just traded Benson away in a dynasty league, and I got the 1.02 rookie pick in the deal. I actually posted this on the asst. coach forum and the recommendations were split on whether to go through with it or not. I had assumed Thomas Jones would stay because the Bears' Super Bowl window was still open. But I also accounted for my willingness to trade him because I felt like Lynch or Calvin Johnson would both constitute upgrades over Benson. Am I regretting it now? This news makes me a little hesitant about the trade, but here's my (most objective possible) take on Benson:
To me he certainly has the talent to succeed in the NFL. He's not as explosive as I was hoping he'd be when I picked him last season in a startup dynasty, but he finishes runs very well and I think in a lot of ways we've only seen hints of what he can do because he's likely a guy that needs to get into the rhythm of the game with a lot of carries (a la Eddie George; I've even heard Portis say this same thing about himself, too). He also seems to take a little longer to get a head of steam (he goes down at the line of scrimmage easier than I expected) but I think that once he starts seeing things a little better (again, a rhythm thing) that he can be the punishing downhill runner we saw at Texas. His limitations as a pass blocker and receiver out of the backfield have always struck me as overblown, and I think way too much is made of the locker room stuff. There was a noticeable difference to me later in the season when he was in on all the celebrations, and his teammates seemed to be coming around on him. Even after he walked off the sidelines in preseason, he went around to his teammates and apologized individually, which seemed to help a lot.
So, why was I willing to trade him for an unknown? I don't have any scientific answer, but when I watch him play I don't get the *feeling* that I'm watching a future NFL star (the expectation for a #4 overall). I feel like I'm watching a very serviceable NFL starter, who will be limited by a general lack of burst. If he can't get through a hole it seems like he has a tough time getting downhill to me. Don't get me wrong, he has decent burst and speed, but when you juxtapose him again Thomas Jones, the difference in burst/speed is noticeable, and Jones is a good bit older. I also feel that the way his NFL career has started off is a bad sign. Again, this isn't scientific thinking here; a lot of guys start off rough but do well going into their 3rd years and beyond (I myself have posted comparisons between Benson and LJ). But Benson would have to be an exception to some previous rules concerning high picks and rough starts. He just feels snake-bitten to me. Every time things start going well, something happens; he either gets hurt or says something stupid. The getting hurt part is the greatest concern, but the *timing* just seems....snake-bit. Consider that he's announced the starter in training camp, then dislocates his shoulder. He has a chance to shine in the Super Bowl after a wonderful second half to the season, and he sprains his knee. Maybe I've been burned too many other times on talented guys who always seem to have an injury at the worst possible moment, but this is feeling I get with Benson.
I don't know. Maybe Benson's college workload is starting to show up in these injuries. He had a significant college workload running against constant 8-man fronts: 223 carries as a freshman, 305 as a sophomore, 258 as a junior, and 326 as a senior. This isn't terribly unusual, but he was a true workhorse at Texas. If the knee injury he suffered in the SB had happened during the regular season, he would have missed significant time in both of his first two seasons with knee injuries.
In short, I don't think either the bust tag fits (at all) and I don't think he looks like a star. I think he'll be a serviceable starter, with a justifiable injury concern.