I read the perfect draft articles about waiting on value at the QB position...but then my cheatsheet has Rodgers, Brees, and Manning at 8,9,10 overall. I know scoring is a factor....but my league's scoring is pretty much in line with the norm.
Looking for a consensus on DWill vs SJax? Well, after taking in the top 300, the draft list, my cheatsheet, and DD....still very confused as to which one is actually supposed to have the better year?
Is one of these information avenues considered superior to the others? Or better yet...is there a way to use all of them to reach an even better conclusion?
Thanks.
Well, they may involve coming from different people's projections, I'm not sure on that. But in the general sense, yes, the methodology of the Perfect Draft article is far superior to the others. You have to realize what it is that each of them is showing you.The cheatsheet, and Draft Dominator's overall tab are the results of a VBD look at the pool of players available. VBD is a way of being able to accurately compare value of players who are in different positions based on some set of beliefs (projections) about the players. It tells you where everyone SHOULD go based on the value that exists in the pool of players.
But the reality is that not everyone shares those views, and so players will be taken in a different order in a draft... or be paid different amounts in an auction. And this difference gives you an opportunity to field an even better team by finding players who will perform better than the player who should have otherwise been taken at your pick. Put another way the cheatsheet/VBD shows you value based on the SUPPLY of players... but it doesn't have anything that incorporates the value of players based on the DEMAND of teams in your league as they will actually draft.
Let's illustrate what I mean by the value based on demand with a simple example, but an extreme one that shows the point well. Let's say that your QB2, who the cheatsheet says is the 8th best player overall... won't be drafted until the late 3rd round in your league. If you take him where the cheatsheet says you end up with QB2, the best RB at pick 2.05, and the best RB at pick 3.08. Or you could have had the best RB at pick 1.08, the best RB at pick 2.05, and the same QB2 at pick 3.08. The teams are the same except one has the best RB from pick 1.08 and the other has the best RB from pick 3.08. Obviously the latter team ended up getting more value out of their picks and so has the better team despite drafting from the same cheatsheet... and they did it because they understood that people undervaluing that QB2 made some other set of picks better for them.
That's a really straightforward, easy to understand example. The same can be true, but maybe less obvious, when you're looking at QB2 at pick 1.08 and know someone will take him soon if you don't... but you think QB7 will be available in the 6th round when he should have gone in the 4th. By waiting and using your 6th round pick to fill this position with a 4th round player talent, you might make enough extra points that you come out ahead from passing on QB2 and picking another position in the 1st.
So that's what the Perfect Draft article does. It combines VBD (i.e. your cheetsheet) and Average Draft Position (ADP) to compare where players SHOULD go with where they ARE ACTUALLY going. Once it has identified players who are good values, it tries to figure out what players and positions to target when so your picks end up getting used on as many good values as possible.
There are two downsides to the Perfect Draft
article though. One is that it might not reflect how your league actually drafts, if they don't tend to follow the ADP that was used to create it. The other is that a big part of the benefit is gained from the process of creating the article, and only some of that can be shared. The best way to prepare for a draft, in my opinion, is to essentially write your own Perfect Draft article for your own league, using your knowledge about your league's draft tendencies.
You identify the players who look like they will be good values, and then start testing out different draft strategies that you hope will hit those players... recording each and seeing what effect it has on your team. The biggest benefit is that when things don't go exactly how you'd expected, you've already sat through the decision making and have tested different paths through the draft so you understand the implications of a pick.
Here's a true example from 2003, when FBG had their first Survivor contest with message board members. I draft Edge, Moss and Peyton with my first three picks, and planned to take A-train who was the last player I was really comfortable with as a RB2, in the 4th. I had mock drafted against myself to lay out a path through the rest of the draft that would let me be picking players I considered good values with most of my picks, and I felt with those 2 RBs I'd be able to clean up a lot of good value picks in rounds 5+.
Then A-train was taken the pick before mine by bueno. But I hadn't just prepared my "Perfect Draft"... I'd prepared for what would happen if it didn't go perfect. I had gone through a few iterations where I didn't get A-train specifically, because I knew not getting him would drastically change my draft. I knew what extra picks I'd now need to use on extra RBs to feel I was strong enough at the position. I knew what the best thing was to do with my other non-RB picks because most every major decision I was faced with
during the draft, I'd already tested out
before the draft.
That is, to me, what proper draft preparation is all about, and that is what the Perfect Draft article is all about. But you have to do it yourself to get the full benefit. It's about familiarizing yourself with the kind of issues you might run in to in your draft and understanding the ripple effect such a decision will have on all of your picks afterwards. And you only get that by doing the legwork yourself. Just reading Dodd's Perfect Draft article will indeed help you over just drafting off a cheatsheet, and especially over just drafting off a list of rankings by position that provide no way to compare across positions. But if you want to truly do your best, you should put the time into it yourself.
to GregR!
to GregR!Greg, I do have anther question about the DD...specifically drafting with ADP box checked ---vs--- unchecked. As I'm sure everyone here knows...a checked ADP box has a significant effect on VBD vs an unchecked ADP box. I was under the impression that this was due to a different assumed "demand" for the upcoming players, hence...uncheck ADP---assumes future player demand will follow a drafting order based on highest VBDchecked ADP--asuumes future player demand will follow--surprise--the current ADPIs this not a demand based system? And which one do you choose when using DD during your actual draft!!Thanks again for you great info.
But I'm practical... however much time I'm going to spend on FF, I want to get the best result I can. If I cared enough to still spend the time I used to, I'd still do it that way. Regardless I do strongly believe in comparing VBD to ADP. It's a pretty basic step in anyone's draft prep, even if they are just writing down from their gut a list of players they like and think they can get.I don't run through multiple mock drafts testing as many decisions I'll be faced with. But I do still spend some extra time investigating key decisions that I know will impact my team. Especially ones where I'm counting one getting one or two specific players at a pick and if they aren't there it changes my whole draft. I actually spent a bunch of time this morning working through some scenarios in that regard around whether I keep DWill in one of my leagues or not.But if I were as gungho about FF as I used to be, I'd still recommend doing it that way.
