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Chance Eagles Finish Regular Season Undefeated? - Update 11/14: 0% (1 Viewer)

What's percent chance do you think Eagles win all their regular season games?

  • Total voters
    130
Joe Bryant

Joe Bryant

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Staff member
It's hardly a hot take with the cupcakiest of cupcake schedules, but the Eagles should be favorites for every game for the rest of the regular season.

What percent chance do you think Eagles win all their regular season games?

Added - Please reply with your guess what percent chance you think the Eagles will finish the regular season undefeated.
 
Last edited:
Or better, reply with your best guess at the % chance you think the Eagles have of going undefeated in the regular season.
 
dgreen said:
If you give them a 75% chance of winning each game, then there's a 5.6% chance they win all 10 remaining games.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this sounds pretty close. It reminds me of trying to hit a 10 team money line parlay. No matter how big a favorite they all are, there always seems to be one loss somewhere in there.
 
WK 9 @ HOU
WK 10 WAS
WK 11 @ IND
WK 12 GB
WK 13 TEN
WK 14 @ NYG
WK 15 @ CHI
WK 16 @ DAL
WK 17 NO
WK 18 NYG

well on paper they should go 17-0, but this is the NFL. I could def see them losing 2-3 times and still curb stomping their way into the SB.
 
Have to think they’ll lay an egg in at least one game and an inferior opponent will beat them. And they’ll probably be better in the long run for it.
 
Injuries and unpredictability as to when the turnover bug will strike make it impossible to be confident that any team will run the table, including this one.

Currently the most likely to be losses are @DAL and @NYG.
 
538 gives them a 3.2% chance (and have them finishing at a projected 14-3, tied with BUF for best record).
ESPN gives them a 4.4% chance. Both sites have the DAL game as the only one where they are considered an underdog.
 
Would love it including 20-0 to finish it out but completely unrealistic. I see the Eagles losing 3 games at least. Still have GB, Dal, NYG, Ten and we always lose a game we shouldn't somewhere along the line. Heck we could lose to Houston this Thursday.
 
Insein said:
Would love it including 20-0 to finish it out but completely unrealistic. I see the Eagles losing 3 games at least. Still have GB, Dal, NYG, Ten and we always lose a game we shouldn't somewhere along the line. Heck we could lose to Houston this Thursday.
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I don't know what the probabilities are, but it might be more likely that DAL wins the division than PHI goes undefeated. All it would take is the Cowboys to win out and have the Eagles lose a divisional game (maybe even a conference game). I don't see either team winning out, but there are a lot of outcomes and tiebreakers in play.
 
Went with 25%, but immediately regretted it thinking that's a hair too high. Expect them to lose at least 1, probably 2. AT Dallas and one other unexpected game feels right
 
I went with 75-100%. I predicted 13-4 after the draft. That included a loss at AZ but obviously that didnt happen. At this point, I see three possible losses:

@ Dallas - Birds can and should win this but away game against a division rival.
@ Chicago - Road game, bears seem able to pull a win against anyone so its possible but again birds should win this
@ NYG/ vs NYG - Gmen are playing well despite getting throttled by SEA. Divisional rival so this is always a chance for a loss.

Wildcard - if they lock up homefield prior to NO or NYG, those could easily be losses but if they go into NO undefeated, they arent losing another game.
 
I never thought that the Bears in 1985 would lose a game with that dominant defense (one of the best of all time). But sometimes the ball just doesn't bounce your way.......like what happened to the Bears when they visited Marino in MIA, they were 12-0 at the time.

So it's less than 25%.
 
The options seem like a silly way to partition of the probabilities. I would've said something more like:
<1%
1-3%
4-10%
10-25%
>25%

Anyone who puts it above 50% is mathematically challenged, plumb out of his mind, or an Eagles fan ... (an Eagles insult joke kind of writes itself after that sentence, but I'll leave that to the imagination...)
 
Even if the geometric mean of the the probabilities of them winning each of the remaining games is 90% (and for reference the betting odds have them around 86% at the Texans next week), the probability for the whole regular season is around 34%.

My guess would be 7%.
 
Anarchy99 said:
Insein said:
Would love it including 20-0 to finish it out but completely unrealistic. I see the Eagles losing 3 games at least. Still have GB, Dal, NYG, Ten and we always lose a game we shouldn't somewhere along the line. Heck we could lose to Houston this Thursday.
Click to expand...
I don't know what the probabilities are, but it might be more likely that DAL wins the division than PHI goes undefeated. All it would take is the Cowboys to win out and have the Eagles lose a divisional game (maybe even a conference game). I don't see either team winning out, but there are a lot of outcomes and tiebreakers in play.
Click to expand...

If Dallas wins out, the Eagles other loss would have to be to Green Bay. If the loss is to any other team, regardless of conference, Philly would win the division tie-breaker based on common opponent.
 
kylechoffman said:
I went with 75-100%. I predicted 13-4 after the draft. That included a loss at AZ but obviously that didnt happen. At this point, I see three possible losses:

@ Dallas - Birds can and should win this but away game against a division rival.
@ Chicago - Road game, bears seem able to pull a win against anyone so its possible but again birds should win this
@ NYG/ vs NYG - Gmen are playing well despite getting throttled by SEA. Divisional rival so this is always a chance for a loss.

Wildcard - if they lock up homefield prior to NO or NYG, those could easily be losses but if they go into NO undefeated, they arent losing another game.
Click to expand...

They have a vested interest to win the NO games since they own the Saints 1st round pick.
 
Snotbubbles said:
Anarchy99 said:
Insein said:
Would love it including 20-0 to finish it out but completely unrealistic. I see the Eagles losing 3 games at least. Still have GB, Dal, NYG, Ten and we always lose a game we shouldn't somewhere along the line. Heck we could lose to Houston this Thursday.
Click to expand...
I don't know what the probabilities are, but it might be more likely that DAL wins the division than PHI goes undefeated. All it would take is the Cowboys to win out and have the Eagles lose a divisional game (maybe even a conference game). I don't see either team winning out, but there are a lot of outcomes and tiebreakers in play.
Click to expand...

If Dallas wins out, the Eagles other loss would have to be to Green Bay. If the loss is to any other team, regardless of conference, Philly would win the division tie-breaker based on common opponent.
Click to expand...
If the Cowboys win out, they would be 15-2 with a divisional record of 5-1 and a conference record of 10-2. Assuming they lost to the Cowboys, the Eagles could lose to the Giants or Commanders to get to two losses in the division (so they would lose the tiebreaker there).
 
Joe Bryant said:
Or better, reply with your best guess at the % chance you think the Eagles have of going undefeated in the regular season.
Click to expand...
I have posted in other threads that it's certainly not out of the realm of possibilities but I think eventually one of these weeks they will sleepwalk on to the field and just not play well.

Texans, Wash, Indy...yeah not gonna lose those games
Packers-Titans-Lions-Bears-Cowboys-Saints-Giants, that's actually not an easy schedule IMHO, many of those teams will put up a fight and every team will want to be the ONE that takes them out.

16-1/15-2 when I was projecting last week, they'll get sucker punched at least once.
 
They could very easily lose to the Giants in week 18, while sitting starters and the Giants playing for a playoff spot. That game immediately jumps out at me. I give them a 0% change of going undefeated (Eagles fan)
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Joe Bryant said:
Or better, reply with your best guess at the % chance you think the Eagles have of going undefeated in the regular season.
Click to expand...
I have posted in other threads that it's certainly not out of the realm of possibilities but I think eventually one of these weeks they will sleepwalk on to the field and just not play well.

Texans, Wash, Indy...yeah not gonna lose those games
Packers-Titans-Lions-Bears-Cowboys-Saints-Giants, that's actually not an easy schedule IMHO, many of those teams will put up a fight and every team will want to be the ONE that takes them out.

16-1/15-2 when I was projecting last week, they'll get sucker punched at least once.
Click to expand...
All it takes is one key injury or several injuries to a position group to muck things up. Teams "should" win games all the time, but yet every week or two there are some head scratching upsets. Colts over Chiefs? Jags over the Chargers by 4 TD? Bears blowing out the Patriots in NE?

Lots of things can impact the outcome of a game when an "A" level team plays a "B" level game and a "C" level team plays a "B" level game. Now the game could be decided by a handful of plays. A tipped ball here, a bad bounce there, a questionable spot, poor weather conditions, a bogus roughing the passer or DPI call, etc.
 
If they have an injury at QB, Minshew is a very capable backup for a few games. Much like Earl Morrall filling in for Griese in 11 of the 17 games in the 1972 Dolphin undefeated season. Their defense is not the level of the CHI or NE teams ... I think they lose 2 games max, one to DAL.
 
Trap games always seem to catch undefeated teams eventually.

I give it 3-4%. It's easy to bet the field when only 2 teams have done it.
 
Schedule is very favorable,but we all know upsets happen when you least expect it,that's why they are called upsets after the fact. The game in Dallas could be one,if the Giants can get healthy they play The Eagles late in the season and might catch them napping once. But in this league the more likely loss or losses will come against Washington(Monday Nighter) or at Indy,short week after a division game or at Chicago sandwiched between The Giants and Cowboys,all on the road by the way.
 
WK 9 @ HOU
WK 10 WAS
WK 11 @ IND
WK 12 GB
WK 13 TEN
WK 14 @ NYG
WK 15 @ CHI
WK 16 @ DAL
WK 17 NO
WK 18 NYG

if the Eagles are undefeated after Week 16, very little chance starters are on the field week 17 and zero chance they are on the field week 18. Everyone in NFCE would have 2 division losses and at worst Eagles would end up with 1, so that would just be dumb. so 0% chance they go undefeated imo.
 
I'd say as high as 4% but still very very unlikely. There's obviously a CHANCE but I'd be shocked if we won that Giants game. We will likely be resting starters and the Giants likely will be playing for something. If we are undefeated going into that game, NYG are the Undefeated season killers anyways.
They'll win 13 or 14 games.
 
Lot of things can happen, and there are 9 more on the schedule.

Injuries, game of inches, etc - it’s really hard to do. Even harder with 1 more game. I voted 0-25%

9-0 would be very difficult.

Possible, but very unlikely.
 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Texans, Commanders, Colts, Packers - 0 losses here
Titans, Giants, Bears, Cowboys, Saints, Giants - 2-3 losses here
Click to expand...
Those bad teams like the Packers, Titans, Bears - those are always the “how the hell did THAT happen” losses. One of the crappy teams will beat them. Someone will have an inopportune fumble, MPAT, MFG, pick-six - something.

It’s really, really difficult to go undefeated
 
Buffalo has a greater chance to go undefeated for the rest of the regular season. If so, that loss @ MIA with the butt punt, in heat and humidity, a possible Tua concussion, with BUF more than doubling MIA in yards & time of possession, will stand out. It's hard to go undefeated - good luck is needed. The 1972 Dolphins had their share of good luck in close games. I think PHI will lose @ Dal, perhaps one more.
 
eighsse2 said:
Even if the geometric mean of the the probabilities of them winning each of the remaining games is 90% (and for reference the betting odds have them around 86% at the Texans next week), the probability for the whole regular season is around 34%.

My guess would be 7%.
Click to expand...
At 86% chance of winning each of 10 games is only a 22% chance of going undefeated. The cumulative probability of losing at least one game goes up quickly. At 75% chance of winning each game, the probability of going undefeated is 5.6%. Vegas has it at +1200 to go undefeated, which is 7.7% if I'm converting right. That's close to your 7%.
 
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