What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

**** Chargers 2024 Thread - Because No One Demanded It **** (1 Viewer)

Doesn’t inspire much confidence.

I don't know what to tell you. IMO this is the best draft the Chargers have had for at least the past 12 years.

I'm not sure if you are coming at his from a fantasy perspective or NFL perspective. I'm talking NFL perspective. IMO they have aced the offseason on that.
 
Yes, I am looking at the team thru a fantasy lens, but the lack of threats may make for a rough season. Maybe the staff can turn QJo around. 🤷
 
I think the idea is that an improved offensive line will make life easier for Herbert and the RBs. This team wasn't going to be converted into a challenger for the championship in one offseason. I think the goal for this season is just to return to respectability. They can do that even though they don't have proven studs at the offensive skill positions yet.

Also, I think they're still shopping the remaining WR free agent market. Granted, somewhat slim pickings.
 
Last edited:
This team wasn't going to be converted into a challenger for the championship in one offseason. I think the goal for this season is just to return to respectability.

I think Hortiz and Harbaugh expect to make the playoffs this season, and I think they will if they don't have any major injuries to key players.

Also, I think they're still shopping the remaining WR free agent market. Granted, somewhat slim pickings.

They might bring someone in, but I am skeptical. At this point, I expect Johnston, Palmer, Davis, McConkey, and Rice to make the final roster (again, barring injuries). I'm not sure if they will carry a 6th WR on the final roster... if so, Johnson would be that guy... he played for Harbaugh on Michigan's national championship team, which might give him a solid chance to make it.
 
My post-draft prediction of the final 53 man roster (starters in bold):
  • Offense (25)
    • QB (2) - Herbert, Stick
    • RB (4) - Edwards, Dobbins, Vidal (R), Spiller
    • FB (1) - Mason
    • TE (3) - Dissly, Hurst, Parham
    • WR (6) - Johnston, Palmer, McConkey (R), Rice (R), Davis, Johnson (R)
    • OL (9) - LT Slater, LG Johnson, C Bozeman, RG Pipkins, RT Alt (R), OL Salyer, IOL McFadden, IOL Jaimes, G Barnhart (R)
  • Defense (25)
    • Edge (4) - Bosa, Mack, Tuli, Rumph
    • IDL (6) - Ford, Eboigbe (R), Fox, Ogbonnia, Matlock, Hinton
    • LB (5) - Colson (R), Perryman, Henley, Niemann, Dye
    • CB (6) - Samuel, Fulton, Taylor, Leonard, Hart (R), Still (R)
    • S (4) - James, Gilman, Woods, Harper (R)
  • Special Teams (3)
    • PK (1) - Dicker
    • P (1) - Scott
    • LS (1) - Harris
I assumed 3 WRs as starters, but it seems just as likely that the Chargers could line up with a FB or 2 TEs.

I only bolded 10 defensive starters, but I'm not sure of the final starter, since I'm not sure if their typical base defense will be a 3-4-4, 4-2-5, or something else. If 3-4-4, they could start Tuli with Bosa at DE or start a 3rd IDL player. If 4-2-5, that means an extra DB, but I'm not sure who it would be.

IMO these are open questions:
  • 6 WRs or 4 TEs? If 4 TEs, WR Johnson presumably goes to practice squad. More importantly, if 4 TEs, who is the 4th? Smartt does not strike me as a fit for the Harbaugh/Roman TE profile.
  • Who gets the 9th OL spot? I'm projecting Barnhart, but it will obviously be a competition. I think the Chargers not drafting a center probably saved Jaimes' roster spot.
  • Can any player beat out Rumph for the last edge spot? Maybe Morris-Brash?
  • Can any player beat out Ogbonnia, Matlock, and/or Hinton for a roster spot? Maybe Clark and/or Okoye?
  • Do the Chargers roll with Woods as their 3rd safety? I expect them to sign a veteran safety for that role, which is important in Minter's defense in general, even moreso if they intend to have James take snaps at slot corner, as has been rumored.
 
Last edited:
I will post my comments along with ranking and draft profile info for the Chargers draft picks here: 2024 Draft Rankings/Discussion

My thoughts and a lot of info on the top 6 picks are posted there. I will add the rest of the picks over the next 24 hours or so.

My impression at the moment is that this is better than any Telesco draft. I suppose one could say the 2020 drafted netted Herbert, which is by itself better than any of the draft picks in this 2024 draft... but the rest of that 2020 draft was awful.
Reading your run down actually makes me feel worse about this draft. Seems like a lot of reaches in the mid rounds.
 
I will post my comments along with ranking and draft profile info for the Chargers draft picks here: 2024 Draft Rankings/Discussion

My thoughts and a lot of info on the top 6 picks are posted there. I will add the rest of the picks over the next 24 hours or so.

My impression at the moment is that this is better than any Telesco draft. I suppose one could say the 2020 drafted netted Herbert, which is by itself better than any of the draft picks in this 2024 draft... but the rest of that 2020 draft was awful.
Reading your run down actually makes me feel worse about this draft. Seems like a lot of reaches in the mid rounds.

Really? Here is my quick take:
  • 1.5 (5) - OT Alt - stud, period
  • 2.2 (34) - WR McConkey - excellent match with Herbert, strong long term WR2, good pick
  • 3.5 (69) - LB Colson - risk free 3rd round pick who will key Minter's defense and likely wear the green dot... probably the best Chargers 3rd round pick since 2013 (Allen)
    • That is 3 day 1 starters in 3 picks.
  • 4.5 (105) - DL Eboigbe - at minimum strong rotation player, could start because he is such a strong run defender; the Lightning Round podcast described him as very similar to Kris Jenkins (Michigan, pick 49)
  • 5.2 (137) - CB Still - this is the only pick that really seemed like a reach to me; the LR podcast described him as very similar to Mike Sainristil (Michigan, pick 50)
  • 5.5 (140) - CB Hart - definitely not a reach, right on point with the average rankings I posted
  • 6.5 (181) - RB Vidal - I suppose this is arguably a reach, but it's a 6th round pick and at a position of need... does it really matter?
  • 7.5 (225) - WR Rice - he was drafted ~100 picks later than the average rankings I posted, seems like a steal... and at a position of need
  • 7.33 (253) - WR Johnson - a Michigan man for Harbaugh at a position of need... may not make the team, but how much does it matter for a player drafted as the 5th from the last pick in the draft?
I have been a Chargers fan since 2004, when Rivers was traded to the Chargers on draft day. That 2004 draft was the best I have seen in my time as a fan. In the 20 drafts since the 2004 draft, IMO this is either the best or second best draft, depending on whether or not you want to say that drafting Herbert in 2020 makes that draft the best, even though the rest of the draft was terrible.
 
I will post my comments along with ranking and draft profile info for the Chargers draft picks here: 2024 Draft Rankings/Discussion

My thoughts and a lot of info on the top 6 picks are posted there. I will add the rest of the picks over the next 24 hours or so.

My impression at the moment is that this is better than any Telesco draft. I suppose one could say the 2020 drafted netted Herbert, which is by itself better than any of the draft picks in this 2024 draft... but the rest of that 2020 draft was awful.
Reading your run down actually makes me feel worse about this draft. Seems like a lot of reaches in the mid rounds.

Really? Here is my quick take:
  • 1.5 (5) - OT Alt - stud, period
  • 2.2 (34) - WR McConkey - excellent match with Herbert, strong long term WR2, good pick
  • 3.5 (69) - LB Colson - risk free 3rd round pick who will key Minter's defense and likely wear the green dot... probably the best Chargers 3rd round pick since 2013 (Allen)
    • That is 3 day 1 starters in 3 picks.
  • 4.5 (105) - DL Eboigbe - at minimum strong rotation player, could start because he is such a strong run defender; the Lightning Round podcast described him as very similar to Kris Jenkins (Michigan, pick 49)
  • 5.2 (137) - CB Still - this is the only pick that really seemed like a reach to me; the LR podcast described him as very similar to Mike Sainristil (Michigan, pick 50)
  • 5.5 (140) - CB Hart - definitely not a reach, right on point with the average rankings I posted
  • 6.5 (181) - RB Vidal - I suppose this is arguably a reach, but it's a 6th round pick and at a position of need... does it really matter?
  • 7.5 (225) - WR Rice - he was drafted ~100 picks later than the average rankings I posted, seems like a steal... and at a position of need
  • 7.33 (253) - WR Johnson - a Michigan man for Harbaugh at a position of need... may not make the team, but how much does it matter for a player drafted as the 5th from the last pick in the draft?
I have been a Chargers fan since 2004, when Rivers was traded to the Chargers on draft day. That 2004 draft was the best I have seen in my time as a fan. In the 20 drafts since the 2004 draft, IMO this is either the best or second best draft, depending on whether or not you want to say that drafting Herbert in 2020 makes that draft the best, even though the rest of the draft was terrible.
In your analysis, and maybe I read it wrong, it seemed like 4.5 through 6.5 were all selected significantly above where the consensus had them in terms of their draft order ranges. That's what gave me pause. Also, I'm not convinced they needed to move up to take McConkey, that seemed a little panicky to me - ultimately it only cost them a move down of 27 spots in the swap, but I have to wonder if they would have gone a different direction than Still if they were 27 picks higher up for that selection.
 
And for those (like me) who need(ed) a refresher on the 2004 draft:

1. Eli - Nothing-special QB (especially for the 1st overall pick) who was traded for Philip Rivers and the picks that became Nate Kaeding and Shawne Merriman.
2. Igor Olshansky - Seven-year starter on the D-line (five with the Chargers)
3. Nate Kaeding - Seven-year standout K, one All-Pro, two Pro Bowls; still in the top 20 for both FG and PAT %
3. Nick Hardwick - Underrated nine-year starter at C, one Pro Bowl (but deserved MANY more)
4. Shaun Phillips - Dependable seven-year starter at OLB, one Pro Bowl, 70 sacks for the Chargers
5. Dave Ball - only with Chargers for a short time due to injuries, solid backup at DE for other teams (esp. TEN)
5. Michael Turner - Spent four years sharing time with Darren Sproles behind Tomlinson before becoming a workhorse with ATL (one All-Pro, two Pro Bowls)
6. Ryan Krause - TE
7. Ryon Bingham - DT
7. Shane Olivea - Four solid years as a starting OT before hanging it up
7. Carlos Joseph - T, never made a roster

That's 2 All-Pro seasons and 10 Pro Bowl seasons (not counting Rivers [2,8] and Merriman[1,3]). The Chargers never again drafted more than one guy who made All-Pro or more than two Pro Bowlers from the same draft.
 
Last edited:
I will post my comments along with ranking and draft profile info for the Chargers draft picks here: 2024 Draft Rankings/Discussion

My thoughts and a lot of info on the top 6 picks are posted there. I will add the rest of the picks over the next 24 hours or so.

My impression at the moment is that this is better than any Telesco draft. I suppose one could say the 2020 drafted netted Herbert, which is by itself better than any of the draft picks in this 2024 draft... but the rest of that 2020 draft was awful.
Reading your run down actually makes me feel worse about this draft. Seems like a lot of reaches in the mid rounds.

Really? Here is my quick take:
  • 1.5 (5) - OT Alt - stud, period
  • 2.2 (34) - WR McConkey - excellent match with Herbert, strong long term WR2, good pick
  • 3.5 (69) - LB Colson - risk free 3rd round pick who will key Minter's defense and likely wear the green dot... probably the best Chargers 3rd round pick since 2013 (Allen)
    • That is 3 day 1 starters in 3 picks.
  • 4.5 (105) - DL Eboigbe - at minimum strong rotation player, could start because he is such a strong run defender; the Lightning Round podcast described him as very similar to Kris Jenkins (Michigan, pick 49)
  • 5.2 (137) - CB Still - this is the only pick that really seemed like a reach to me; the LR podcast described him as very similar to Mike Sainristil (Michigan, pick 50)
  • 5.5 (140) - CB Hart - definitely not a reach, right on point with the average rankings I posted
  • 6.5 (181) - RB Vidal - I suppose this is arguably a reach, but it's a 6th round pick and at a position of need... does it really matter?
  • 7.5 (225) - WR Rice - he was drafted ~100 picks later than the average rankings I posted, seems like a steal... and at a position of need
  • 7.33 (253) - WR Johnson - a Michigan man for Harbaugh at a position of need... may not make the team, but how much does it matter for a player drafted as the 5th from the last pick in the draft?
I have been a Chargers fan since 2004, when Rivers was traded to the Chargers on draft day. That 2004 draft was the best I have seen in my time as a fan. In the 20 drafts since the 2004 draft, IMO this is either the best or second best draft, depending on whether or not you want to say that drafting Herbert in 2020 makes that draft the best, even though the rest of the draft was terrible.
In your analysis, and maybe I read it wrong, it seemed like 4.5 through 6.5 were all selected significantly above where the consensus had them in terms of their draft order ranges. That's what gave me pause. Also, I'm not convinced they needed to move up to take McConkey, that seemed a little panicky to me - ultimately it only cost them a move down of 27 spots in the swap, but I have to wonder if they would have gone a different direction than Still if they were 27 picks higher up for that selection.

IMO as you get deeper in the draft, position ranking matters more than overall ranking.
  • 4.5 (105) - DL Eboigbe - counting him as IDL and not Edge:
    • Consensus among the 10 ranking sources I used was that his overall ranking average was 165.3, with a range from 118 to 249. He was drafted at 105.
    • Consensus among the 10 ranking sources I used was that his position ranking average was 15.1, with a range from 9 to 25. He was drafted at 11.
    • His position ranking doesn't look like as much of a reach as his overall ranking.
    • His rankings very likely suffered due to his medical history (neck injury in 2022), which suggests that there would be more variance in his position on different team draft boards, i.e., some teams were good with it and some weren't, meaning they would rank him very differently. The Chargers clearly were comfortable with his history.
    • In addition, it is quite possible that the Chargers value run defense on their board more than many teams do. He is one of the best run defense DL players in the draft.
    • He also offers rare versatility, basically splitting his 2023 snaps roughly evenly between Edge and IDL, including snaps all over the line. That can offer more value to a team like the Chargers, which has a fairly weak IDL group.
    • Altogether, it seems like a fine selection to me.
  • 5.2 (137) - CB Still - definitely seems like a reach... I'm curious to hear more over time as to why the team prioritized him at this pick, which is obvious to see since they took CB Hart 3 picks later.
  • 5.5 (140) - CB Hart - was drafted almost exactly at both his average overall draft ranking position and his average overall CB draft ranking position... this does not indicate a reach.
  • 6.5 (181) - RB Vidal
    • Consensus among the 10 ranking sources I used was that his overall ranking average was 231.4, with a range from 162 to 384. He was drafted at 181.
    • Consensus among the 10 ranking sources I used was that his position ranking average was 18.6, with a range from 12 to 26. He was drafted at 17.
    • This really doesn't seem like a reach to me, given it is the 6th round. And even moreso given the Chargers got WRs Rice and Johnson in the 7th round. They needed a RB, so it was reasonable to take the guy they wanted at 6.5, regardless of consensus rankings.
So, to me, Still was a reach. The others were fine. It actually feels like the Chargers had a really good read on the draft and played the board extremely well. I don't recall ever thinking that after one of Telesco's drafts.
 
Last edited:
That's a good point about Vidal. If they knew they were going WR WR in round 7, then they had to get Vidal in the 6th, regardless of the "right" round for him.
 
SmashMouth Football

Alt joins Slater to make bookend Tackles for Herbert to set up and throw the ball, Wide Receivers will flow on and off this team over coming seasons
McConkey is not totally polished but he has excellent hands and the ability to go from stop to go quicker than most
DC-Jesse Minter who came over with Harbaugh from Michigan, 3rd round Junior Colson-LB from Michigan, BINGO!
105-137-140, all defensive picks, DT and 2 DBs, we can praise or pick them apart but I think Harbaugh is overturning the roster quickly. Bama-MD-Notre Dame, not exactly small programs
Throws in some cheap skill guys late in the 6th and 7th

Overall i would rate the Chargers Draft somewhere in the B+/A- range, many sites did likewise.
I think I would have preferred one of the IOL or Dejean at 34 or wherever the Chargers were set to pick in the 2nd but that's just me.
Overall it felt like a pretty solid draft for Harbaugh, nothing out of this world but you also didn't go backwards.
 
I listened to a Guilty As Charged podcast today, and they asserted that the Chargers had 3rd round grades on both DL Eboigbe and CB Hart. They said both fell in the draft relative to the Chargers grade based on their medicals and claimed that Hortiz, et al. are more willing to draft the best players with potentially non-ideal medicals than Telesco was.

I can't confirm any of that, but it's interesting and plausible. The only thing that doesn't make a lot of sense to me is taking Still at 5.2 and Hart at 5.5. Maybe they felt that the teams at 5.3 and 5.4 were absolutely not taking a CB, so it didn't matter, but it's odd that they took the risk of losing Hart unless they felt they needed to take Still first for whatever reason.
 
I watched another Guilty As Charged podcast on YouTube. The discussion is about the different approach Hortiz took to the draft in comparison to Telesco. It is obviously a small sample size of just one draft for Hortiz, but the differences are notable and very positive for the Chargers.

3rd Round

The most important difference they noted is the 3rd round. I have noted many times in the past that Telesco had a tendency to use 3rd round picks on reaches who mostly didn't pan out. Here were Telesco's 3rd round picks with the Chargers:
  • 2013 - WR Keenan Allen
  • 2014 - OL Chris Watt
  • 2015 - CB Craig Mager
  • 2016 - C Max Tuerk
  • 2017 - IOL Dan Feeney
  • 2018 - IDL Justin Jones
  • 2019 - OT Trey Pipkins
  • 2020 - Traded to move up to draft LB Kenneth Murray
  • 2021 - WR Josh Palmer
  • 2021 - TE Tre McKitty
  • 2022 - S J.T. Woods
  • 2023 - LB Henley
The jury is out on Henley. Allen was great, and Palmer is solid. Pipkins has been a 2 year starter at RT, but he also just got drafted over in Hortiz's first draft, so it doesn't seem like he is good enough for what Harbaugh wants at OT. The other 7 players on that list were collectively awful.

The GAC guys highlighted that Telesco's 3rd round picks for the Chargers were drafted an average of 96.5 spots earlier than their consensus draft ranking since 2016. He repeated this tendency in this year's draft with the Raiders, taking Delmar Glaze at pick 77 when his consensus ranking was 152.

In contrast, Hortiz took Colson in the 3rd round, 5 spots later than his consensus ranking.

I realize that consensus rankings are media creations, and each team has its own board with many different rankings. But I have a lot of respect for many draft analysts who seem to do a great job with their grades and analysis. It seems reasonable to use those rankings as a proxy for comparisons.

Trading Up

They pointed out that Telesco traded up 4 times, each time giving up an extra pick in the draft, whereas Hortiz traded up by swapping picks, meaning he did not lose a draft pick (i.e., he was still able to draft 9 players).

They also pointed out that each time Telesco traded up, it was for a non-premium position (LB Teo, LB Attaochu, RB Gordon, LB Murray). In contrast, Hortiz traded up for a premium position this year: WR McConkey.

Relative Athletic Score

The average RAS for all of Telesco's draft picks with the Chargers was 7.52. The average for Hortiz's picks this year was 8.41.

(y)
 
I watched another Guilty As Charged podcast on YouTube. The discussion is about the different approach Hortiz took to the draft in comparison to Telesco. It is obviously a small sample size of just one draft for Hortiz, but the differences are notable and very positive for the Chargers.

3rd Round

The most important difference they noted is the 3rd round. I have noted many times in the past that Telesco had a tendency to use 3rd round picks on reaches who mostly didn't pan out. Here were Telesco's 3rd round picks with the Chargers:
  • 2013 - WR Keenan Allen
  • 2014 - OL Chris Watt
  • 2015 - CB Craig Mager
  • 2016 - C Max Tuerk
  • 2017 - IOL Dan Feeney
  • 2018 - IDL Justin Jones
  • 2019 - OT Trey Pipkins
  • 2020 - Traded to move up to draft LB Kenneth Murray
  • 2021 - WR Josh Palmer
  • 2021 - TE Tre McKitty
  • 2022 - S J.T. Woods
  • 2023 - LB Henley
The jury is out on Henley. Allen was great, and Palmer is solid. Pipkins has been a 2 year starter at RT, but he also just got drafted over in Hortiz's first draft, so it doesn't seem like he is good enough for what Harbaugh wants at OT. The other 7 players on that list were collectively awful.

The GAC guys highlighted that Telesco's 3rd round picks for the Chargers were drafted an average of 96.5 spots earlier than their consensus draft ranking since 2016. He repeated this tendency in this year's draft with the Raiders, taking Delmar Glaze at pick 77 when his consensus ranking was 152.

In contrast, Hortiz took Colson in the 3rd round, 5 spots later than his consensus ranking.

I realize that consensus rankings are media creations, and each team has its own board with many different rankings. But I have a lot of respect for many draft analysts who seem to do a great job with their grades and analysis. It seems reasonable to use those rankings as a proxy for comparisons.

Trading Up

They pointed out that Telesco traded up 4 times, each time giving up an extra pick in the draft, whereas Hortiz traded up by swapping picks, meaning he did not lose a draft pick (i.e., he was still able to draft 9 players).

They also pointed out that each time Telesco traded up, it was for a non-premium position (LB Teo, LB Attaochu, RB Gordon, LB Murray). In contrast, Hortiz traded up for a premium position this year: WR McConkey.

Relative Athletic Score

The average RAS for all of Telesco's draft picks with the Chargers was 7.52. The average for Hortiz's picks this year was 8.41.

(y)
Can you say what his "score" is from this year with the Raiders? It seems Raider Fans are on board with the picks he made this year. Wonder why the change?
 
I realized I did not post a link to this post back in February: A Look at Ravens Drafts 2019-2023

This is what gave me optimism about the Chargers drafts going forward. And I think Hortiz delivered in this draft. I'm hopeful this is the new norm we can expect going forward.
 
"Good" Telesco drafts were the ones where good players fell into his lap in the 1st round, the obvious choices, like Herbert, James, Bosa, and then fell apart beginning in round 3.

"Bad" Telesco drafts are the ones where there are somewhat non obvious decisions to make, and he blows them. Like QJ last year. Also with disastrous picks from round 3 on.

"Horrific" Telesco drafts are the ones where he sheds draft picks to move up. And then screws up from round three on as always.

This year was a "good" Telesco draft for the Raiders.
 
Can you say what his "score" is from this year with the Raiders? It seems Raider Fans are on board with the picks he made this year. Wonder why the change?

Using the NFL Mock Draft Database 2024 Consensus Big Board:

1.13 (13) - TE Bowers - ranked 7, good value
2. (44) - C JPJ - ranked 30, good value
3. (77) - OL Glaze - ranked 152, so picked 75 picks higher than that ranking... seems like poor value
4. (112) - CB Richardson - ranked 149, so picked 37 picks higher than that ranking... seems like poor value
5. (148) - LB Eichenberg - ranked 133, solid value
6. (208) - RB Laube - ranked 177, solid value
7. (223) - FS Taylor - ranked 210, fine value
7. (229) - DB Devonshire - ranked 185, good value, though mildly surprising they took Taylor with the earlier 7th round pick

I don't know much about these players other than Bowers and JPJ, and I don't follow the Raiders enough to know about their roster, so I can't comment too intelligently about this draft. I want to also note that it should be expected that there is more variance between team draft boards and consensus rankings deeper in the draft, let's say day 3, so 4th round and later.

Some positives include drafting 8 players, more than Telesco's average with the Chargers, and not trading up, something he did multiple times with the Chargers with poor results.

That said, his 3rd and 4th round picks may undermine the overall value of this draft, which was a consistent problem for Telesco with the Chargers. Teams should be getting starters or impactful rotation players in those rounds.

The other problem with this draft could be that they did not land a QB. The draft did not fall in a way that helped them do that, but they could have chosen to trade up for one and didn't.
 
Can you say what his "score" is from this year with the Raiders? It seems Raider Fans are on board with the picks he made this year. Wonder why the change?

Using the NFL Mock Draft Database 2024 Consensus Big Board:

1.13 (13) - TE Bowers - ranked 7, good value
2. (44) - C JPJ - ranked 30, good value
3. (77) - OL Glaze - ranked 152, so picked 75 picks higher than that ranking... seems like poor value
4. (112) - CB Richardson - ranked 149, so picked 37 picks higher than that ranking... seems like poor value
5. (148) - LB Eichenberg - ranked 133, solid value
6. (208) - RB Laube - ranked 177, solid value
7. (223) - FS Taylor - ranked 210, fine value
7. (229) - DB Devonshire - ranked 185, good value, though mildly surprising they took Taylor with the earlier 7th round pick

I don't know much about these players other than Bowers and JPJ, and I don't follow the Raiders enough to know about their roster, so I can't comment too intelligently about this draft. I want to also note that it should be expected that there is more variance between team draft boards and consensus rankings deeper in the draft, let's say day 3, so 4th round and later.

Some positives include drafting 8 players, more than Telesco's average with the Chargers, and not trading up, something he did multiple times with the Chargers with poor results.

That said, his 3rd and 4th round picks may undermine the overall value of this draft, which was a consistent problem for Telesco with the Chargers. Teams should be getting starters or impactful rotation players in those rounds.

The other problem with this draft could be that they did not land a QB. The draft did not fall in a way that helped them do that, but they could have chosen to trade up for one and didn't.
Thanks. It just seems the fans liked this draft. Maybe he learned his lesson.
 
Looks like they are signing Chark.

I'm surprised at this. It seems to mean that one of these WRs will not make the final roster: Davis, Rice, Johnson.

The team must have known they were going to sign Chark at the time of the draft. That makes it surprising to me that they used their last pick on WR Johnson, who may very likely not make the final roster. For example, they could have drafted Harbaugh's center at Michigan, Drake Nugent. He went undrafted and signed as a UDFA with the 49ers. Maybe Harbaugh didn't want him, but he is just an example. They could have drafted any player who became a UDFA.
 
WR (6) - Johnston, Palmer, McConkey (R), Rice (R), Davis, Johnson (R)

So add Chark. I assume that means Davis, Rice, and Johnson will be battling for 1-2 roster spots.

This is also interesting because it implies that Johnston or Palmer is going to be WR4, barring injuries, since I'm now expecting Chark and McConkey to be in the top 3.
 
WR (6) - Johnston, Palmer, McConkey (R), Rice (R), Davis, Johnson (R)

So add Chark. I assume that means Davis, Rice, and Johnson will be battling for 1-2 roster spots.

This is also interesting because it implies that Johnston or Palmer is going to be WR4, barring injuries, since I'm now expecting Chark and McConkey to be in the top 3.
Is Chark any good at this point? Seems like a warm body vet to have around in case the younger guys fall flat. I don't think Davis is on the bubble either, he's too good at returning, and with the new rules, returners got a bit of a bump. I think Johnson will be the odd man out, with an eye toward getting him to the practice squad. Has anybody seen Chark's contract details yet? Any chance they cut him before the season starts if they like what they see from the other receivers?
 
WR (6) - Johnston, Palmer, McConkey (R), Rice (R), Davis, Johnson (R)

So add Chark. I assume that means Davis, Rice, and Johnson will be battling for 1-2 roster spots.

This is also interesting because it implies that Johnston or Palmer is going to be WR4, barring injuries, since I'm now expecting Chark and McConkey to be in the top 3.
Is Chark any good at this point? Seems like a warm body vet to have around in case the younger guys fall flat. I don't think Davis is on the bubble either, he's too good at returning, and with the new rules, returners got a bit of a bump. I think Johnson will be the odd man out, with an eye toward getting him to the practice squad. Has anybody seen Chark's contract details yet? Any chance they cut him before the season starts if they like what they see from the other receivers?

I disagree.

First, on Chark. He signed a 1 year deal worth up to $5M. I'm sure there must be incentives in that value, but I also assume he got a signing bonus. IMO it seems likely that he would have to get hurt or perform very badly in camp/preseason in order to fail to make the final roster. I assume his signing bonus is small enough that they will be able to afford to cut him if needed, it would just be a waste of cap space. It has been posted elsewhere on this site that he may very well have been signed as insurance for Johnston, meaning Johnston will get first shot, but Chark is there in case Johnston continues to disappoint. That seems like a reasonable take IMO, and it implies that Chark makes it into the season.

As for Davis, I now think there is a very real possibility that he gets cut or traded. I posted some relevant stuff at BFTB on this:

There are no players with return experience under the new rules, since those rules don't exist at any level of football. The XFL is close, but there are still differences.

I guess people said that because it should be expected that the number of kickoffs returned will increase. But the nature of those returns are going to be completely different.

Quotes from the Athletic:

The proximity of the coverage team and blockers completely changes the kickoff strategy. The schemes will be more reminiscent of offensive line blocking schemes...

On this clip from the XFL, the return team left the third player from the sideline on the coverage team unblocked so he could get trapped by an outside player. The idea is similar to a trap play offenses run. Some other run-blocking schemes and principles should translate to kick returns. Offensive line coaches could be useful resources for special teams coordinators as they draw up plays...

How teams implement personnel also will be interesting. Rather than having traditional return specialists, who are usually better open-field runners, teams may want to use running backs, who have great vision and can anticipate a lane opening and hit it at full speed. The returner only needs to get past one level, so open-field elusiveness may not be as important. Maybe teams will use their star running backs as returners in big games. Saquon Barkley could be terrifying as a returner for the Philadelphia Eagles. The San Francisco 49ers could have Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey both back as returners. Who will teams use as blockers? Will return units be made up of tight ends and maybe a few very athletic offensive linemen? Will coverage teams use defensive linemen, who can quickly shed blocks?
Maybe Davis will be great at it, maybe he won't. Maybe Vidal will be better. Maybe McConkey. Nobody really knows what will work best at this point.

As I said last year when he was drafted, organizations that draft well don't spend 4th round picks on tiny WRs who likely will never have any role other than kickoff/punt returner. It's just not valuable enough to the team.

And he is probably even less valuable on offense now, since Harbaugh/Roman likely value run blocking more for WRs than Staley and his staff did. Davis's run blocking grade was 43.0 last year on 56 run blocking snaps.

Now we have 7 WRs fighting for 5 or 6 spots. Harbaugh and Hortiz acquired 4 of them (Chark, McConkey, Rice, Johnson). Of the 3 others they inherited, Davis is clearly the least valuable at WR.

I'm not saying Davis won't make it. Just pointing out reasons why I think he is not a lock for the final roster. Given the triple dip at WR in the draft and the Chark signing, this has now become an interesting battle to watch in camp and preseason.

The analysis goes something like this.

How valuable is Player A, who lines up as a returner for every kickoff and every punt but plays very little otherwise (offense, defense, special teams)... and is average or worse at returning kickoffs and great at returning punts. Said player does not play on coverage units, so special teams involvement is limited to the return units. Note that extremely great at returning punts in 2023 meant returning 24 punts, so just under 1.5 plays per game.

If the team devotes a 46 man active gameday roster spot to Player A, what is the value they get out of that roster spot?

Now take into account that kickoff returns will be completely different going forward. Does that change that answer?

Now, if the team instead devotes that 46 man active gameday roster spot to Player B, who contributes more on offense, defense, and/or other special teams units, how does that value compare? Perhaps there is a loss in punt return yardage by using different player(s) than Player A. But is that loss offset by the gain in using Player B more on offense, defense, and/or other special teams units?

As a simple example, what if Cornelius Johnson was able to play 200 snaps on offense as an occasional target but more often quality run blocking WR, while also playing heavy snaps on the coverage units? How would his value compare? This is exactly the kind of analysis the Chargers coaching staff will be performing.

In the event the team decides to move on from Davis, I wonder if they could trade him for a future draft pick based on his 2nd team All Pro achievement, speed, and cheap rookie contract... if they could, that becomes another aspect of the analysis.

I am still surprised they would consider adding Chark and another veteran like MVS, given the ripple effects. I'm still waiting for them to sign a veteran or two at other positions, like safety.

As I said in those posts, I'm not predicting he won't make it, but I think it is very possible. IMO the green text is the easiest way to sum it up.
 
Here are a couple good articles about the new kickoff rules from the Athletic:

Making sense of NFL’s new kickoff rule and what it means for next season (March 26)
How did new kickoff rules affect NFL Draft? ‘You can either complain or adapt’ (May 6)

I'm becoming more convinced that Davis is not going to make the final roster. They still need a punt returner, and he is a very good one (2nd team All Pro last season)... but can they devote a 46 man gameday active roster spot to Davis if that is really his only differentiating contribution?
 
Is Chark any good at this point?
It's hard to say with any certainty. He's only five years removed from being a Pro Bowler and still quite young (27). It could be argued that his 2022 season was about as good as his Pro Bowl year, just with fewer opportunities. Other than that one year with Goff, the best-performing QB he has had throwing to him has been Minshew (followed by rookie-year Trevor Lawrence).

His career catch rate is only 55.4%. By comparison, Quentin Johnston managed a 56.7% catch rate last year. His career success rate is just 46.7%, compared to 2023 Johnston at 47.8%. But Chark's never had a quarterback nearly as good as Herbert throwing to him. But then again, many of Johnston's starts occurred after Herbert was lost for the season.
 
They still need a punt returner, and he is a very good one (2nd team All Pro last season)... but can they devote a 46 man gameday active roster spot to Davis if that is really his only differentiating contribution?
Everything you said makes sense, and I too am convinced he is likely on the chopping block, but I'll also say that the Chargers rostered David Binn for 17 years, and he only contributed on punts and kicks (not kickoffs).
 
They still need a punt returner, and he is a very good one (2nd team All Pro last season)... but can they devote a 46 man gameday active roster spot to Davis if that is really his only differentiating contribution?
Everything you said makes sense, and I too am convinced he is likely on the chopping block, but I'll also say that the Chargers rostered David Binn for 17 years, and he only contributed on punts and kicks (not kickoffs).

That's true. It is certainly the norm to use a roster spot on a dedicated long snapper. I wonder how feasible it is to have a player who is good enough to be the regular long snapper but also could contribute on offense, defense, or other special teams units...? I don't know of any examples, but maybe there are some out there. That would be a way to gain a small roster advantage.
 
I wonder how feasible it is to have a player who is good enough to be the regular long snapper but also could contribute on offense, defense, or other special teams units...? I don't know of any examples, but maybe there are some out there. That would be a way to gain a small roster advantage.


Probably havent been many. Particulary since the risk likely doesnt outweigh the reward.

If that guy gets hurt running down on coverage teams, or tackling a dude on D, etc. then your punt/PK units are pretty much boned, for the rest of that game at least.

Id expect most coaches would prolly rather just not sign a 10th DL, or 7th WR, and roster a dedicated guy for LS
 
They signed edge rusher Bud Dupree, 2 years around $6M give or take for meeting/missing incentives. I think Rumph's days on this team are numbered.
 
They signed edge rusher Bud Dupree, 2 years around $6M give or take for meeting/missing incentives. I think Rumph's days on this team are numbered.

They signed Dupree for 2 years, $6M plus up to $4M in incentives. Not sure if that's what you meant here. No doubt in my mind Rumph is out barring injuries ahead of him.

This is going to be quite a substantial year to year roster turnover. As of now, I would update my post-draft prediction of the final 53 man roster (starters in bold):
  • Offense (25)
    • QB (2) - Herbert, Stick
    • RB (4) - Edwards, Dobbins, Vidal (R), Spiller
    • FB (1) - Mason
    • TE (3) - Dissly, Hurst, Parham
    • WR (6) - Johnston, Palmer, McConkey (R), Chark, Rice (R), Davis, Johnson (R)
      • The more I think about it, the less likely I think it is that Davis makes it solely to return punts
    • OL (9) - LT Slater, LG Johnson, C Bozeman, RG Pipkins, RT Alt (R), OL Salyer, IOL McFadden, IOL Jaimes, G Barnhart (R)
      • I don't think Barnhart is a lock, but I think that 9th spot will not be a carryover player like Sarell
  • Defense (25)
    • Edge (4) - Bosa, Mack, Tuli, Dupree, Rumph
    • IDL (6) - Ford, Eboigbe (R), Fox, Ogbonnia, Matlock, Hinton, Mason (UDFA R)
      • I certainly don't think Ogbonnia or Hinton are locks, just don't know who to project to replace either of them
    • LB (5) - Colson (R), Perryman, Henley, Niemann, Dye
    • CB (6) - Samuel, Fulton, Taylor, Leonard, Hart (R), Still (R)
      • UDFA Harper could also play slot corner, so I could possibly see him making it there over Taylor, but that seems like a long shot
    • S (4) - James, Gilman, Woods, Dent (UDFA R), Harper (UDFA R)
      • I could also see UDFA Phillips having a shot, and I will be surprised if the team does not sign a veteran safety to be #3 and play when James moves into the slot/box in 5 DB
  • Special Teams (3)
    • PK (1) - Dicker
    • P (1) - Scott
    • LS (1) - Harris
That would mean carrying over just 29 players to the first Hortiz/Harbaugh 53 man roster. I don't know what the average is, but I have to assume that is more than is typical, even with a regime change.
 
I still don't think Davis is getting dropped. :shrug:

We'll see. IMO he will have to earn a bigger role on offense to hold his roster spot, and I don't think he can do that, since he is too small to be an effective run blocker. Maybe he'll prove me wrong. I would be happy with that, since it would imply he will deliver more value than he did last season.
 
At this point, that looks like a favorable schedule. My only gripe is the early bye week.

Of course it'll look different once we see how the teams really are performing.
 
PFF has the Chargers ranked as the 26th best roster in the NFL. Chiefs 2nd, Raiders 23rd, and the Broncos with the worst.

Grain of salt: Jets at #4.
 
This may be my favorite read of the offseason so far

I've been starting to worry that Harbaugh's shtick might wear thin with the vets, but if Mack is buying in that is great news. It's been nice reading about how much emphasis Harbaugh is placing on details and situational play. How many poorly handled situations have we had? I still have ptsd over Mccree making that interception in 2006 instead of just knocking the damn ball down.

Of course, if winning doesn't follow...not sure the good vibes will continue.
 
This may be my favorite read of the offseason so far

I've been starting to worry that Harbaugh's shtick might wear thin with the vets, but if Mack is buying in that is great news. It's been nice reading about how much emphasis Harbaugh is placing on details and situational play. How many poorly handled situations have we had? I still have ptsd over Mccree making that interception in 2006 instead of just knocking the damn ball down.

Of course, if winning doesn't follow...not sure the good vibes will continue.
I think you guys are in good shape with Harbaugh, maybe as soon as this year if things break right. This team has been mis-coached for years and will surprise a lot of people. I would wager he gets this team to a Super Bowl in the the next 3-5 years.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top