32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Doesn’t inspire much confidence.
This team wasn't going to be converted into a challenger for the championship in one offseason. I think the goal for this season is just to return to respectability.
Also, I think they're still shopping the remaining WR free agent market. Granted, somewhat slim pickings.
Reading your run down actually makes me feel worse about this draft. Seems like a lot of reaches in the mid rounds.I will post my comments along with ranking and draft profile info for the Chargers draft picks here: 2024 Draft Rankings/Discussion
My thoughts and a lot of info on the top 6 picks are posted there. I will add the rest of the picks over the next 24 hours or so.
My impression at the moment is that this is better than any Telesco draft. I suppose one could say the 2020 drafted netted Herbert, which is by itself better than any of the draft picks in this 2024 draft... but the rest of that 2020 draft was awful.
Reading your run down actually makes me feel worse about this draft. Seems like a lot of reaches in the mid rounds.I will post my comments along with ranking and draft profile info for the Chargers draft picks here: 2024 Draft Rankings/Discussion
My thoughts and a lot of info on the top 6 picks are posted there. I will add the rest of the picks over the next 24 hours or so.
My impression at the moment is that this is better than any Telesco draft. I suppose one could say the 2020 drafted netted Herbert, which is by itself better than any of the draft picks in this 2024 draft... but the rest of that 2020 draft was awful.
In your analysis, and maybe I read it wrong, it seemed like 4.5 through 6.5 were all selected significantly above where the consensus had them in terms of their draft order ranges. That's what gave me pause. Also, I'm not convinced they needed to move up to take McConkey, that seemed a little panicky to me - ultimately it only cost them a move down of 27 spots in the swap, but I have to wonder if they would have gone a different direction than Still if they were 27 picks higher up for that selection.Reading your run down actually makes me feel worse about this draft. Seems like a lot of reaches in the mid rounds.I will post my comments along with ranking and draft profile info for the Chargers draft picks here: 2024 Draft Rankings/Discussion
My thoughts and a lot of info on the top 6 picks are posted there. I will add the rest of the picks over the next 24 hours or so.
My impression at the moment is that this is better than any Telesco draft. I suppose one could say the 2020 drafted netted Herbert, which is by itself better than any of the draft picks in this 2024 draft... but the rest of that 2020 draft was awful.
Really? Here is my quick take:
I have been a Chargers fan since 2004, when Rivers was traded to the Chargers on draft day. That 2004 draft was the best I have seen in my time as a fan. In the 20 drafts since the 2004 draft, IMO this is either the best or second best draft, depending on whether or not you want to say that drafting Herbert in 2020 makes that draft the best, even though the rest of the draft was terrible.
- 1.5 (5) - OT Alt - stud, period
- 2.2 (34) - WR McConkey - excellent match with Herbert, strong long term WR2, good pick
- 3.5 (69) - LB Colson - risk free 3rd round pick who will key Minter's defense and likely wear the green dot... probably the best Chargers 3rd round pick since 2013 (Allen)
- That is 3 day 1 starters in 3 picks.
- 4.5 (105) - DL Eboigbe - at minimum strong rotation player, could start because he is such a strong run defender; the Lightning Round podcast described him as very similar to Kris Jenkins (Michigan, pick 49)
- 5.2 (137) - CB Still - this is the only pick that really seemed like a reach to me; the LR podcast described him as very similar to Mike Sainristil (Michigan, pick 50)
- 5.5 (140) - CB Hart - definitely not a reach, right on point with the average rankings I posted
- 6.5 (181) - RB Vidal - I suppose this is arguably a reach, but it's a 6th round pick and at a position of need... does it really matter?
- 7.5 (225) - WR Rice - he was drafted ~100 picks later than the average rankings I posted, seems like a steal... and at a position of need
- 7.33 (253) - WR Johnson - a Michigan man for Harbaugh at a position of need... may not make the team, but how much does it matter for a player drafted as the 5th from the last pick in the draft?
In your analysis, and maybe I read it wrong, it seemed like 4.5 through 6.5 were all selected significantly above where the consensus had them in terms of their draft order ranges. That's what gave me pause. Also, I'm not convinced they needed to move up to take McConkey, that seemed a little panicky to me - ultimately it only cost them a move down of 27 spots in the swap, but I have to wonder if they would have gone a different direction than Still if they were 27 picks higher up for that selection.Reading your run down actually makes me feel worse about this draft. Seems like a lot of reaches in the mid rounds.I will post my comments along with ranking and draft profile info for the Chargers draft picks here: 2024 Draft Rankings/Discussion
My thoughts and a lot of info on the top 6 picks are posted there. I will add the rest of the picks over the next 24 hours or so.
My impression at the moment is that this is better than any Telesco draft. I suppose one could say the 2020 drafted netted Herbert, which is by itself better than any of the draft picks in this 2024 draft... but the rest of that 2020 draft was awful.
Really? Here is my quick take:
I have been a Chargers fan since 2004, when Rivers was traded to the Chargers on draft day. That 2004 draft was the best I have seen in my time as a fan. In the 20 drafts since the 2004 draft, IMO this is either the best or second best draft, depending on whether or not you want to say that drafting Herbert in 2020 makes that draft the best, even though the rest of the draft was terrible.
- 1.5 (5) - OT Alt - stud, period
- 2.2 (34) - WR McConkey - excellent match with Herbert, strong long term WR2, good pick
- 3.5 (69) - LB Colson - risk free 3rd round pick who will key Minter's defense and likely wear the green dot... probably the best Chargers 3rd round pick since 2013 (Allen)
- That is 3 day 1 starters in 3 picks.
- 4.5 (105) - DL Eboigbe - at minimum strong rotation player, could start because he is such a strong run defender; the Lightning Round podcast described him as very similar to Kris Jenkins (Michigan, pick 49)
- 5.2 (137) - CB Still - this is the only pick that really seemed like a reach to me; the LR podcast described him as very similar to Mike Sainristil (Michigan, pick 50)
- 5.5 (140) - CB Hart - definitely not a reach, right on point with the average rankings I posted
- 6.5 (181) - RB Vidal - I suppose this is arguably a reach, but it's a 6th round pick and at a position of need... does it really matter?
- 7.5 (225) - WR Rice - he was drafted ~100 picks later than the average rankings I posted, seems like a steal... and at a position of need
- 7.33 (253) - WR Johnson - a Michigan man for Harbaugh at a position of need... may not make the team, but how much does it matter for a player drafted as the 5th from the last pick in the draft?
McConkey had injury issues too. I guess this regime is o.k. with that kind of risk.
Can you say what his "score" is from this year with the Raiders? It seems Raider Fans are on board with the picks he made this year. Wonder why the change?I watched another Guilty As Charged podcast on YouTube. The discussion is about the different approach Hortiz took to the draft in comparison to Telesco. It is obviously a small sample size of just one draft for Hortiz, but the differences are notable and very positive for the Chargers.
3rd Round
The most important difference they noted is the 3rd round. I have noted many times in the past that Telesco had a tendency to use 3rd round picks on reaches who mostly didn't pan out. Here were Telesco's 3rd round picks with the Chargers:
The jury is out on Henley. Allen was great, and Palmer is solid. Pipkins has been a 2 year starter at RT, but he also just got drafted over in Hortiz's first draft, so it doesn't seem like he is good enough for what Harbaugh wants at OT. The other 7 players on that list were collectively awful.
- 2013 - WR Keenan Allen
- 2014 - OL Chris Watt
- 2015 - CB Craig Mager
- 2016 - C Max Tuerk
- 2017 - IOL Dan Feeney
- 2018 - IDL Justin Jones
- 2019 - OT Trey Pipkins
- 2020 - Traded to move up to draft LB Kenneth Murray
- 2021 - WR Josh Palmer
- 2021 - TE Tre McKitty
- 2022 - S J.T. Woods
- 2023 - LB Henley
The GAC guys highlighted that Telesco's 3rd round picks for the Chargers were drafted an average of 96.5 spots earlier than their consensus draft ranking since 2016. He repeated this tendency in this year's draft with the Raiders, taking Delmar Glaze at pick 77 when his consensus ranking was 152.
In contrast, Hortiz took Colson in the 3rd round, 5 spots later than his consensus ranking.
I realize that consensus rankings are media creations, and each team has its own board with many different rankings. But I have a lot of respect for many draft analysts who seem to do a great job with their grades and analysis. It seems reasonable to use those rankings as a proxy for comparisons.
Trading Up
They pointed out that Telesco traded up 4 times, each time giving up an extra pick in the draft, whereas Hortiz traded up by swapping picks, meaning he did not lose a draft pick (i.e., he was still able to draft 9 players).
They also pointed out that each time Telesco traded up, it was for a non-premium position (LB Teo, LB Attaochu, RB Gordon, LB Murray). In contrast, Hortiz traded up for a premium position this year: WR McConkey.
Relative Athletic Score
The average RAS for all of Telesco's draft picks with the Chargers was 7.52. The average for Hortiz's picks this year was 8.41.
Can you say what his "score" is from this year with the Raiders? It seems Raider Fans are on board with the picks he made this year. Wonder why the change?
Thanks. It just seems the fans liked this draft. Maybe he learned his lesson.Can you say what his "score" is from this year with the Raiders? It seems Raider Fans are on board with the picks he made this year. Wonder why the change?
Using the NFL Mock Draft Database 2024 Consensus Big Board:
1.13 (13) - TE Bowers - ranked 7, good value
2. (44) - C JPJ - ranked 30, good value
3. (77) - OL Glaze - ranked 152, so picked 75 picks higher than that ranking... seems like poor value
4. (112) - CB Richardson - ranked 149, so picked 37 picks higher than that ranking... seems like poor value
5. (148) - LB Eichenberg - ranked 133, solid value
6. (208) - RB Laube - ranked 177, solid value
7. (223) - FS Taylor - ranked 210, fine value
7. (229) - DB Devonshire - ranked 185, good value, though mildly surprising they took Taylor with the earlier 7th round pick
I don't know much about these players other than Bowers and JPJ, and I don't follow the Raiders enough to know about their roster, so I can't comment too intelligently about this draft. I want to also note that it should be expected that there is more variance between team draft boards and consensus rankings deeper in the draft, let's say day 3, so 4th round and later.
Some positives include drafting 8 players, more than Telesco's average with the Chargers, and not trading up, something he did multiple times with the Chargers with poor results.
That said, his 3rd and 4th round picks may undermine the overall value of this draft, which was a consistent problem for Telesco with the Chargers. Teams should be getting starters or impactful rotation players in those rounds.
The other problem with this draft could be that they did not land a QB. The draft did not fall in a way that helped them do that, but they could have chosen to trade up for one and didn't.
Looks like they are signing Chark.
WR (6) - Johnston, Palmer, McConkey (R), Rice (R), Davis, Johnson (R)
Is Chark any good at this point? Seems like a warm body vet to have around in case the younger guys fall flat. I don't think Davis is on the bubble either, he's too good at returning, and with the new rules, returners got a bit of a bump. I think Johnson will be the odd man out, with an eye toward getting him to the practice squad. Has anybody seen Chark's contract details yet? Any chance they cut him before the season starts if they like what they see from the other receivers?WR (6) - Johnston, Palmer, McConkey (R), Rice (R), Davis, Johnson (R)
So add Chark. I assume that means Davis, Rice, and Johnson will be battling for 1-2 roster spots.
This is also interesting because it implies that Johnston or Palmer is going to be WR4, barring injuries, since I'm now expecting Chark and McConkey to be in the top 3.
Is Chark any good at this point? Seems like a warm body vet to have around in case the younger guys fall flat. I don't think Davis is on the bubble either, he's too good at returning, and with the new rules, returners got a bit of a bump. I think Johnson will be the odd man out, with an eye toward getting him to the practice squad. Has anybody seen Chark's contract details yet? Any chance they cut him before the season starts if they like what they see from the other receivers?WR (6) - Johnston, Palmer, McConkey (R), Rice (R), Davis, Johnson (R)
So add Chark. I assume that means Davis, Rice, and Johnson will be battling for 1-2 roster spots.
This is also interesting because it implies that Johnston or Palmer is going to be WR4, barring injuries, since I'm now expecting Chark and McConkey to be in the top 3.
There are no players with return experience under the new rules, since those rules don't exist at any level of football. The XFL is close, but there are still differences.
I guess people said that because it should be expected that the number of kickoffs returned will increase. But the nature of those returns are going to be completely different.
Quotes from the Athletic:
The proximity of the coverage team and blockers completely changes the kickoff strategy. The schemes will be more reminiscent of offensive line blocking schemes...
On this clip from the XFL, the return team left the third player from the sideline on the coverage team unblocked so he could get trapped by an outside player. The idea is similar to a trap play offenses run. Some other run-blocking schemes and principles should translate to kick returns. Offensive line coaches could be useful resources for special teams coordinators as they draw up plays...
How teams implement personnel also will be interesting. Rather than having traditional return specialists, who are usually better open-field runners, teams may want to use running backs, who have great vision and can anticipate a lane opening and hit it at full speed. The returner only needs to get past one level, so open-field elusiveness may not be as important. Maybe teams will use their star running backs as returners in big games. Saquon Barkley could be terrifying as a returner for the Philadelphia Eagles. The San Francisco 49ers could have Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey both back as returners. Who will teams use as blockers? Will return units be made up of tight ends and maybe a few very athletic offensive linemen? Will coverage teams use defensive linemen, who can quickly shed blocks?
Maybe Davis will be great at it, maybe he won't. Maybe Vidal will be better. Maybe McConkey. Nobody really knows what will work best at this point.
As I said last year when he was drafted, organizations that draft well don't spend 4th round picks on tiny WRs who likely will never have any role other than kickoff/punt returner. It's just not valuable enough to the team.
And he is probably even less valuable on offense now, since Harbaugh/Roman likely value run blocking more for WRs than Staley and his staff did. Davis's run blocking grade was 43.0 last year on 56 run blocking snaps.
Now we have 7 WRs fighting for 5 or 6 spots. Harbaugh and Hortiz acquired 4 of them (Chark, McConkey, Rice, Johnson). Of the 3 others they inherited, Davis is clearly the least valuable at WR.
I'm not saying Davis won't make it. Just pointing out reasons why I think he is not a lock for the final roster. Given the triple dip at WR in the draft and the Chark signing, this has now become an interesting battle to watch in camp and preseason.
The analysis goes something like this.
How valuable is Player A, who lines up as a returner for every kickoff and every punt but plays very little otherwise (offense, defense, special teams)... and is average or worse at returning kickoffs and great at returning punts. Said player does not play on coverage units, so special teams involvement is limited to the return units. Note that extremely great at returning punts in 2023 meant returning 24 punts, so just under 1.5 plays per game.
If the team devotes a 46 man active gameday roster spot to Player A, what is the value they get out of that roster spot?
Now take into account that kickoff returns will be completely different going forward. Does that change that answer?
Now, if the team instead devotes that 46 man active gameday roster spot to Player B, who contributes more on offense, defense, and/or other special teams units, how does that value compare? Perhaps there is a loss in punt return yardage by using different player(s) than Player A. But is that loss offset by the gain in using Player B more on offense, defense, and/or other special teams units?
As a simple example, what if Cornelius Johnson was able to play 200 snaps on offense as an occasional target but more often quality run blocking WR, while also playing heavy snaps on the coverage units? How would his value compare? This is exactly the kind of analysis the Chargers coaching staff will be performing.
In the event the team decides to move on from Davis, I wonder if they could trade him for a future draft pick based on his 2nd team All Pro achievement, speed, and cheap rookie contract... if they could, that becomes another aspect of the analysis.
I am still surprised they would consider adding Chark and another veteran like MVS, given the ripple effects. I'm still waiting for them to sign a veteran or two at other positions, like safety.
It's hard to say with any certainty. He's only five years removed from being a Pro Bowler and still quite young (27). It could be argued that his 2022 season was about as good as his Pro Bowl year, just with fewer opportunities. Other than that one year with Goff, the best-performing QB he has had throwing to him has been Minshew (followed by rookie-year Trevor Lawrence).Is Chark any good at this point?
Everything you said makes sense, and I too am convinced he is likely on the chopping block, but I'll also say that the Chargers rostered David Binn for 17 years, and he only contributed on punts and kicks (not kickoffs).They still need a punt returner, and he is a very good one (2nd team All Pro last season)... but can they devote a 46 man gameday active roster spot to Davis if that is really his only differentiating contribution?
Everything you said makes sense, and I too am convinced he is likely on the chopping block, but I'll also say that the Chargers rostered David Binn for 17 years, and he only contributed on punts and kicks (not kickoffs).They still need a punt returner, and he is a very good one (2nd team All Pro last season)... but can they devote a 46 man gameday active roster spot to Davis if that is really his only differentiating contribution?
I wonder how feasible it is to have a player who is good enough to be the regular long snapper but also could contribute on offense, defense, or other special teams units...? I don't know of any examples, but maybe there are some out there. That would be a way to gain a small roster advantage.
Probably havent been many. Particulary since the risk likely doesnt outweigh the reward.
They signed edge rusher Bud Dupree, 2 years around $6M give or take for meeting/missing incentives. I think Rumph's days on this team are numbered.
I still don't think Davis is getting dropped.
Not as good as the last two, but still some good burns.waiting for schedule release video
-QG
I think you guys are in good shape with Harbaugh, maybe as soon as this year if things break right. This team has been mis-coached for years and will surprise a lot of people. I would wager he gets this team to a Super Bowl in the the next 3-5 years.This may be my favorite read of the offseason so far
Khalil Mack: Jim Harbaugh understands how to win close games, that was an issue last year
Without mentioning former head coach Brandon Staley by name, Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack said this week that new coach Jim Harbaugh understands how to win close games — which Mack says was the Chargers' problem last year.www.nbcsports.com
I've been starting to worry that Harbaugh's shtick might wear thin with the vets, but if Mack is buying in that is great news. It's been nice reading about how much emphasis Harbaugh is placing on details and situational play. How many poorly handled situations have we had? I still have ptsd over Mccree making that interception in 2006 instead of just knocking the damn ball down.
Of course, if winning doesn't follow...not sure the good vibes will continue.