Chicago made it to the superbowl 10 years ago with a group of 3 QBs... who combined for a QB rating of 72.2
In fact, if you take out the "Franchise QBs" from that list (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Ryan, Cam, and let's add Peyton Manning) you are left with quite an uninspiring list for Qbs that got their teams to the superbowl:
Joe Flacco
Eli Manning
Big Ben
Kurt Warner
Colin Kaepernick
Chicago's 2007 QB Rotisserie
In fact, from the last 10 Super Bowls only 4 of those QBs were top 10 picks (Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton)
So I guess you need to hit it big to be a super bowl contender... but there are no guarantees this draft that any of these QBs are going to hit it big... I'd argue blowing a top 10 pick on a QB that doesn't work out hurts you more than trying to take one outside of the top 10