Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
If this was a good QB class, of course but I don't think it is. One of these QBs may be a future star but it's not a certainty. I don't think they should grab a QB at 1.03.flapgreen said:
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***Chicago Bears Thread*** Ben Johnson hired. The Resurrection Begins! (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter flapgreen
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flapgreen
Footballguy
If 4 are taken in the first round, the odds are overwhelming in favor of one being a star. It's an inexact science. Even NFL GMs whiff a lot on qbs. If Pace has a shot at the first one and any of them go onto be a franchise guy, Pace will be jobless in a couple years. Whether you or I think this is a weak qb class or not doesn't matter. The odds are in the Bears favor if they pick the one who hits. And they'll likely get first dibs. A safety won't mean jack without a qb. Look who somebof the top safeties and CBs play for.
Why wouldn't the wise move be to trade down in the 1st for additional picks and still be able to draft a QB without using such a high spot like the Bears own?
1.03 may be too soon for a QB if everyone else is high on guys like Hooker, Allen, etc.
DropKick
Footballguy
flapgreen
Footballguy
Hey, if the situation arose, most definitely have to consider it. But if Pace thinks one of these guys is a star in the making, you have to take your qb at 3. Can't take the risk on your guy not dropping.
flapgreen
Footballguy
If I have the first pick if the QBs, you better believe it. Also didn't say only one would be successful.
DropKick
Footballguy
You would hope the GM has a good feel for the board and other team's interests. Nice to drop down a little, pick up an extra pick or two and still get a QB.
3nOut
Footballguy
I think one of these guys is worth a second round pick with the CHANCE of them becoming a franchise guy. But since most experts don't believe they will be, it's not worth the risk of taking them at 3, a place you normally take a sure thing.
3nOut
Footballguy
From 2004 to 2014 there have been 31 QBs drafted in the first round. Of those I counted 11 that I consider worth the high pick. Less than 1 in 3. That does not mean that those are "franchise" guys, just that they were good solid starters for over an extended period of time. And many of those were highly touted coming out of college, which this year's crop is not.
http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/nfl-draft-how-these-48-qbs-have-done-1.2829033
That said, I wouldn't be opposed trading down in the first to get additional picks.
http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/nfl-draft-how-these-48-qbs-have-done-1.2829033
That said, I wouldn't be opposed trading down in the first to get additional picks.
flapgreen
Footballguy
I've beaten this dead horse enough. 3 weeks until draft. Let's start talking about potential positions that could be drafted in the first few rounds. Very deep class of DBs and TEs. I think they have to take both of those on the first 3 rounds. Too good to pass up. If they do end up trading down, which is far from a sure thing, I'd love for them to get a DB, TE, RT in the first few rounds.
flapgreen
Footballguy
I'm not saying Adams isn't good, but he's more of a strong safety and not a guy with a lot of ball skills. I think you have to get a guy in the top 5 you expect to be a perennial pro bowler and an amazing athlete and difference maker. Adams is none of those imo. Doesn't mean he's not good.
I mean they could take him, but with the class so deep at DB this year and Adams not being a true free safety, it wouldn't fall in line with what Pace has stated he likes to do. Value has to come into play at some point, both with where he's taken and how it compares to a player they could get in later rounds.
I mean they could take him, but with the class so deep at DB this year and Adams not being a true free safety, it wouldn't fall in line with what Pace has stated he likes to do. Value has to come into play at some point, both with where he's taken and how it compares to a player they could get in later rounds.
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Hawkeye21
Footballguy
So instead draft a QB that most likely won't start his first year and is considered a project? Not saying that going QB first is bad but by the logic we're trying to go by the logic in bold then QB is not the right pick. Adams is considered to be a difference maker and perennial Pro Bowler right now, at least according to some. I've heard a couple guests on the Score in the last week that feel like the Bears will pick Adams because of this.
flapgreen
Footballguy
No. Qb position completely different than all others. My logic is that if you're taking a DB at three, which never happens, he better be a sure fire Pro Bowler. Berry, Taylor, Woodson weren't taken in top three. Those guys won an endless amounts of awards in college and were unbelievable athletes. Generational type guys. Adams couldn't sniff their jocks. I don't get the hype at all. Every position is different. It's why DBs rarely go in the top 5. I don't put much value in what a lot of the so-called draft experts say. They're mostly just guys trying to make headlines and get clicks. That's why their draft rankings are constantly changing when there aren't even any games occurring.
I'm not saying I know anymore than anyone else out there. Just my opinion and the opinion of a handful of guys I follow who back up what they say with actual facts and study they've put into it.
I'm not saying I know anymore than anyone else out there. Just my opinion and the opinion of a handful of guys I follow who back up what they say with actual facts and study they've put into it.
The factor that may push Adams to be drafted at #3 overall is his leadership - he is a tone setter in the locker room and on the field. However, there is some timid tackling on tape so perhaps Lattimore is the pick here.
If Bears don't want to go defensive back at #3, I guess the other choices are... reach for a QB who could be another Jake Locker, draft Johnathan Allen or Solomon Thomas (although I think they don't since we have a solid foundation on our d-line), or trade down. I would be very interested to see if the Bears trade down, I'm not sure who would want to take that trade though. But chances are at #3 Pace is in love with a defensive player and will draft him.
positions I'm looking at in round 2: QB (if Mahomes available, probably not), Tackle (if Cam Rombinson available, probably not), but probably safety (Obi Melifonwu, Budda Baker or Josh Jones?). I would say tight end is a possibility if Njoku is there, but with the dumb Dion Sims contract, probably not.
Round 3: Tackle (Antonio Garcia?), or best available defense end
Fudgenuggets I'm getting excited for the draft.
If Bears don't want to go defensive back at #3, I guess the other choices are... reach for a QB who could be another Jake Locker, draft Johnathan Allen or Solomon Thomas (although I think they don't since we have a solid foundation on our d-line), or trade down. I would be very interested to see if the Bears trade down, I'm not sure who would want to take that trade though. But chances are at #3 Pace is in love with a defensive player and will draft him.
positions I'm looking at in round 2: QB (if Mahomes available, probably not), Tackle (if Cam Rombinson available, probably not), but probably safety (Obi Melifonwu, Budda Baker or Josh Jones?). I would say tight end is a possibility if Njoku is there, but with the dumb Dion Sims contract, probably not.
Round 3: Tackle (Antonio Garcia?), or best available defense end
Fudgenuggets I'm getting excited for the draft.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Bears should trade back and get more picks. They won't though.
who would want to trade up into the #3 spot, though? Can't see anyone doing that unless Myles Garrett somehow isn't drafted by the Browns or 49ers, which won't happen.
flapgreen
Footballguy
Would love to get a DB, TE, and OT in round 2 and 3, if we can get an extra pick. Sims contract is too high for a TE if his caliber, but not that much in the grand scheme of things. Definitely need to grab a te and db in first 3 rounds.
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flapgreen
Footballguy
Why not? Just takes one team to be in love with any of the 4 QBs. And I bet there will be.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
flapgreen
Footballguy
The thing that concerns me about Allen is that he isn't a big pass rusher. I can't see taking a guy at 3 who isn't known for rushing the passer.
flapgreen
Footballguy
flapgreen
Footballguy
Johnathan Hankins still out there. Pace signed a bunch of injury-prone scrubs but has largely ignored players who are solid and dependable starters. That's after coming off a season with the most injuries in the NFL. His bargain bin shopping with injury-prone players has not worked and could be his downfall. McPhee's knee was a concern coming in. Has hampered him for 2 years. Trevathan's knee was a concern. Also ended his season and maybe his effectiveness for his career. Your FA approach has not worked, Pace. Better hope he knocks it out of the park in this draft or he's in trouble.
Not sure his short term situation (in the pokey) but wouldn't Michael Floyd be a WR worth consideration as a pick up?
Since the Bears are signing a bunch of 1 FA year deals, I can't imagine a better one in an obvious position of need. If it works out, extend him before the end of the season.
And before anyone says he is a crap player - (I personally do not) - please consider the Bears have signed the vaunted Reuben Randle. Surely Floyd can beat out at least this guy for a roster spot?
Since the Bears are signing a bunch of 1 FA year deals, I can't imagine a better one in an obvious position of need. If it works out, extend him before the end of the season.
And before anyone says he is a crap player - (I personally do not) - please consider the Bears have signed the vaunted Reuben Randle. Surely Floyd can beat out at least this guy for a roster spot?
Vector
Footballguy
Can't believe you want Bears to take a QB first. You are nuts. QB class next year will be much better.
If nothing else, they could trade 1 next year and a 2 for a chance to get Clemson QB after they take safety at 3 this year.
flapgreen
Footballguy
RBM
Footballguy
If they can guarantee me a Jimmy Garap/Josh McD combo for next year I would sign for Jamal Adams right now. I won't hate any if these big defensive players but really how much of an impact can any safety really make? He needs to be an Ed Reed/Polamalu type.
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flapgreen
Footballguy
Not even Reed or Polamalu or Taylor went top 3. And Reed is a strong safety. Not a ball hawk free safety. If you're going safety up high, Hooker is the guy. Either way, I can't see Pace going safety at three under any circumstances. If Pace isn't completely full of #### with his talk about drafting a qb every year, he'll take Watson. Checks every box he says he wants in a qb. Kizer or Watson and I'll be happy. Of course Pace has said a lot of things and usually ends up looking like a liar. About to go into the 3rd draft and he still hasn't drafted a single one. Let's see if he actually does what he talks about.
I have noticed they've had a few of these QBs in for private visits so it looks like they're doing their homework.
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flapgreen
Footballguy
The so-called "analysts" out there are completely out of touch. Just trying to get attention and go with the national narrative. It's not a weak qb class. It just doesn't have that one huge name that a lot of the drafts have. Anyone saying it's weak is just repeating the nonsense they've heard a few "experts" say. Four qbs going in the first round, maybe in the first 15. Doesn't sound too weak to me. Enough with the overdrafting QB stuff. All qbs are "overdrafted." That's the nature of the position.
Glennon cannot be counted on for the future. It's why he got a one-year contract. Having a lot of visits with QBs. Has to mean they're going qb early. Haven't drafted a qb yet. They almost have to draft one. Third year of a redraft. Don't blow this, Pace. Take your guy and build around him.
Glennon cannot be counted on for the future. It's why he got a one-year contract. Having a lot of visits with QBs. Has to mean they're going qb early. Haven't drafted a qb yet. They almost have to draft one. Third year of a redraft. Don't blow this, Pace. Take your guy and build around him.
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flapgreen
Footballguy
It's hard to see him as a fit in our defense. Can't really be a 2 gapper or a 5T. Would have to be an edge guy or OLB, which I don't think he's done any. I think it's mostly smoke, but it would be great if Garrett fell to us, if they don't end up taking a qb.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
The only argument I have with this is how much impact is a QB going to make this year? It's very, very unlikely that any of the QBs in this draft would start this year so that makes him zero impact in year one. It's possible he starts next year if he proves to be good enough in which case he could be worth the pick.
Most likely, any of the top defensive guys in this draft are going to start in year one and have a great chance at being an impact player. QB is the one position that will not be an impact player right away. This doesn't mean they shouldn't take one there though, it just counters the argument about being an impact player right away.
flapgreen
Footballguy
I agree with this. If you're using the "impact player right away" argument, qb is not the answer. I just hope they look more at long-term success.
RBM
Footballguy
Oh of course. But no position has a bigger impact than QB so that should always be priority number 1, which it never is with us.
I happen to think our D should be pretty good this year. So it's definitely tempting to add another, potentially elite, player to it. But I happen to think Watson is going to be a winner in this league. It's an extremely hard decision, which means I probably won't ##### about what happens. Until mid season at least
