***Chicago Cubs Thread*** (1 Viewer)

[Wrigley]

Let's get one ace before we start worrying about a 2nd

 

[Eephus]

Let's get one ace before we start worrying about a 2nd

I don't think the bottom of the Cubs rotation is that terrible considering they're an 89 loss club who traded their two best starters at the deadline.

Arrietta, Hendricks and Wada were above decent, particularly in the second half. Wood and Jackson weren't but have been fungible back-end innings eaters in the past. Dan Straily isn't a lost cause yet. There are some arms in the minors that are probably a year away.

Buy an ace FA and pick up an arm at the deadline if the young hitters put you in a position to contend. I don't think their window is open just yet but Theo has to put some wins on the board eventually.

 

[pantagrapher]

Let's get one ace before we start worrying about a 2nd

I don't think the bottom of the Cubs rotation is that terrible considering they're an 89 loss club who traded their two best starters at the deadline.

Arrietta, Hendricks and Wada were above decent, particularly in the second half. Wood and Jackson weren't but have been fungible back-end innings eaters in the past. Dan Straily isn't a lost cause yet. There are some arms in the minors that are probably a year away.

Buy an ace FA and pick up an arm at the deadline if the young hitters put you in a position to contend. I don't think their window is open just yet but Theo has to put some wins on the board eventually.

Not sure the Cubs are hanging onto Wada. Guess that depends on what his option number is. I forgot the guy is in his mid-30s.

Here's what I could find, from late August:

The amount of that option has not yet been reported, though I could take a pretty reasonable stab at it: $5 million. That was the amount of the 2014 team option on the original deal with the Orioles. If that’s the amount for which Wada was willing to extend his stay in the States then, it’s probably the upper limit of the option for the Cubs’, too. At least for the sake of discussion, and unless I hear otherwise, that’s what we’ll go with.

So, that’s the real question here: given what we’ve seen so far from Wada, is he worth $5 million or so in 2015?

Were his option much less than that, the answer would be obvious. At $5 million, it’s still probably a clear yes, but it’s a closer call. Ultimately, I think we’ll want to see what he does over the final month before saying for certain, but, if this really is Wada, then the Cubs will have to pick up his option and strongly consider him for the rotation entering the Spring.

Even if the rotation question isn’t clear, the option decision might be. Over 8 starts so far this year, Wada has been worth 0.7 WAR, according to FanGraphs. Playing the dangerous game of small-sample-extrapolation, and assuming Wada is the same guy next year he’s shown this year, we could say Wada could be worth 2.5 to 3.0 WAR in 2015. At $6 million per win, that’s $15 to $18 million in value.

In other words, if you believe this is Wada, and you project him to be this guy next year, he’d have quite a bit of surplus value in 2015, even at $5 million in salary. So, even if you were viewing Wada purely as an asset, rather than a clear rotation member, he’s a nice asset to have over the Winter. Once again, the option decision might be an easy one.

There’s still a lot of season left, and we’ll see what Wada shows the rest of the way. But it’s a story line to follow, particularly as the Cubs look to figure out their rotation heading into 2015.

*(After 2015, I believe the Cubs would still have control over Wada’s Stateside rights, rather than him reaching free agency. The catch, though, is that, at that point, if they tender him a contract, it would have to be for at least 80% of his current salary. So, if that salary was $5 million, the Cubs could keep him for $4 million in 2016, but you don’t actually reduce a guy’s salary if he played well (which he would have to if the Cubs wanted to keep him after 2015). This is all getting very hypothetical and academic. The essence is this: I believe the Cubs would still control Wada’s rights after 2015, but it would cost more than $5 million per year.)

 

[Grahamburn]

Let's get one ace before we start worrying about a 2nd

Arrieta needs to prove it again, but he looks like an ace to me.

 

[pantagrapher]

Wada coming back. Even with some regression, he'll be a servicable back-end starter.

Cubs re-signed LHP Tsuyoshi Wada to a one-year major league contract.
The financial terms of the deal aren't known. Wada impressed with the Cubs this season, putting up a 3.25 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 57/19 K/BB ratio across 69 1/3 innings. It could depend on what else the Cubs do with their rotation this offseason, but right now the lefty should have a spot among the starting five. Nov 3 - 10:33 AM

 

[pantagrapher]

1. Arrietta

2.

3. Wood (trade bait?)

4. Hendricks

5. Wada

Others:

Turner

Dubront

Jackson

Also hearing speculation they want to bring Jason Hammel back.

 

[pantagrapher]

Buster Olney pretty sure the Cubs are going to sign Russell Martin.

 

[Annyong]

An Overlooked Gem at Maddon Presser

One of the coolest moments at the Maddon press conference was also one I haven’t seen reported anywhere. When Maddon was talking about how he, Theo, and Jed met in a Pensacola RV park to discuss a contract, and that it was a beautiful moment, Theo quipped “We’ll always have Pensacola”.

The media quoted that, but didn’t mention why it’s so cool. It’s so cool because he’s taking from Casablanca, where Rick says “We’ll always have Paris” to Ingrid Bergman’s character. That line was written by Theo’s grandfather, Philip Epstein, who - along with his twin brother, Julius - was the writer of Casablanca. So Theo quoted from his grandfather. From Casablanca. So cool!

(Sources: (1) Article including quote; (2) Philip Epstein wiki.)

 

[Eephus]

An Overlooked Gem at Maddon Presser

One of the coolest moments at the Maddon press conference was also one I haven’t seen reported anywhere. When Maddon was talking about how he, Theo, and Jed met in a Pensacola RV park to discuss a contract, and that it was a beautiful moment, Theo quipped “We’ll always have Pensacola”.

The media quoted that, but didn’t mention why it’s so cool. It’s so cool because he’s taking from Casablanca, where Rick says “We’ll always have Paris” to Ingrid Bergman’s character. That line was written by Theo’s grandfather, Philip Epstein, who - along with his twin brother, Julius - was the writer of Casablanca. So Theo quoted from his grandfather. From Casablanca. So cool!

(Sources: (1) Article including quote; (2) Philip Epstein wiki.)

Humphrey Bogart was 8 years old the last time the Cubs won the World Series

 

[Limp Ditka]

An Overlooked Gem at Maddon Presser

One of the coolest moments at the Maddon press conference was also one I havent seen reported anywhere. When Maddon was talking about how he, Theo, and Jed met in a Pensacola RV park to discuss a contract, and that it was a beautiful moment, Theo quipped Well always have Pensacola.

The media quoted that, but didnt mention why its so cool. Its so cool because hes taking from Casablanca, where Rick says Well always have Paris to Ingrid Bergmans character. That line was written by Theos grandfather, Philip Epstein, who - along with his twin brother, Julius - was the writer of Casablanca. So Theo quoted from his grandfather. From Casablanca. So cool!

(Sources: (1) Article including quote; (2) Philip Epstein wiki.)

Humphrey Bogart was 8 years old the last time the Cubs won the World Series

 

[Grahamburn]

1. Arrietta

2.

3. Wood (trade bait?)

4. Hendricks

5. Wada

Others:

Turner

Dubront

Jackson

Also hearing speculation they want to bring Jason Hammel back.

You can never have too much, but that's a lot of meh.

 

[Annyong]

I think Arrieta and Hendricks are legit 2-3 starters. Arrieta might be a 1.5 and Hendricks a 3.25

Add a #1 and we got a pretty hearty stew goin!

 

[Annyong]

Buster Olney pretty sure the Cubs are going to sign Russell Martin.

I really don't see the point. Was Castillo that bad? At 31 I'm assuming Martin wants a 3-4 year deal. How far out is Schwarber? Maybe they don't REALLY see him as a catcher.

 

[Annyong]

Maybe I'm just too enamored with bolstering the rotation (Lester) and bullpen (Miller) than a catcher who is gojng to cost more than he's worth.

 

[Grahamburn]

Buster Olney pretty sure the Cubs are going to sign Russell Martin.

I really don't see the point. Was Castillo that bad? At 31 I'm assuming Martin wants a 3-4 year deal. How far out is Schwarber? Maybe they don't REALLY see him as a catcher.

Their numbers offensively in 2014 are pretty different, but as recently as 2013 they were basically interchangeable. Castillo's defensive metrics are solid as well and comparable to Martin's in most categories.

He's a better player, but will likely cost $10M more.

 

[RnR]

Buster Olney pretty sure the Cubs are going to sign Russell Martin.

I really don't see the point. Was Castillo that bad? At 31 I'm assuming Martin wants a 3-4 year deal. How far out is Schwarber? Maybe they don't REALLY see him as a catcher.

I believe that's the case. Schwarber's bat will make him a big leaguer pretty quickly, but chances are it will be at a position other than catcher.

 

[pantagrapher]

Buster Olney pretty sure the Cubs are going to sign Russell Martin.

I really don't see the point. Was Castillo that bad? At 31 I'm assuming Martin wants a 3-4 year deal. How far out is Schwarber? Maybe they don't REALLY see him as a catcher.

I believe that's the case. Schwarber's bat will make him a big leaguer pretty quickly, but chances are it will be at a position other than catcher.

Could see him getting dealt to an AL team for pitching. If the bat is ready and he can DH, why wait for the defense to catch up, especially if he needs to switch positions? Cubs really have nowhere to play him in the next couple years.

 

[pantagrapher]

I think Arrieta and Hendricks are legit 2-3 starters. Arrieta might be a 1.5 and Hendricks a 3.25

Add a #1 and we got a pretty hearty stew goin!

I think he'd be fine atop the rotation, but I'd like Arrieta to be the 2, and it looks like that's the goal if they can bring a marquee arm. Hendricks and Wada is a decent 4-5, but I doubt they want both of those guys in the roation. I think Hendricks is legit and can eat up innings. Probably use Wada for extended work out of the pen and for an ocassional start.

I'm loving watching this come together.

 

[Eephus]

Buster Olney pretty sure the Cubs are going to sign Russell Martin.

I really don't see the point. Was Castillo that bad? At 31 I'm assuming Martin wants a 3-4 year deal. How far out is Schwarber? Maybe they don't REALLY see him as a catcher.

I believe that's the case. Schwarber's bat will make him a big leaguer pretty quickly, but chances are it will be at a position other than catcher.

Could see him getting dealt to an AL team for pitching. If the bat is ready and he can DH, why wait for the defense to catch up, especially if he needs to switch positions? Cubs really have nowhere to play him in the next couple years.

They knew all this when they drafted him at 1.04. I have to assume they think he can handle the position.

 

[RnR]

Buster Olney pretty sure the Cubs are going to sign Russell Martin.

I really don't see the point. Was Castillo that bad? At 31 I'm assuming Martin wants a 3-4 year deal. How far out is Schwarber? Maybe they don't REALLY see him as a catcher.

I believe that's the case. Schwarber's bat will make him a big leaguer pretty quickly, but chances are it will be at a position other than catcher.

Could see him getting dealt to an AL team for pitching. If the bat is ready and he can DH, why wait for the defense to catch up, especially if he needs to switch positions? Cubs really have nowhere to play him in the next couple years.

They knew all this when they drafted him at 1.04. I have to assume they think he can handle the position.

IMO, taking him at 1.04 had more to do with them liking the bat and the $1.5 mil under slot that he was willing to sign for, and less to do with knowing for sure what position he'd play at the big league level.

 

[pantagrapher]

Photographer friend of mine took some cool shots of Wrigley reno.

He also has some of the coolest weather photography you'll ever see, if you're into that kind of stuff.

 

[Wrigley]

Photographer friend of mine took some cool shots of Wrigley reno.

He also has some of the coolest weather photography you'll ever see, if you're into that kind of stuff.

awesome

 

[pantagrapher]

Latest rumors on the Cubs beat: Cubs trying to get Jordan Zimmerman from the Nationals. I'd love to see that happen. I like guys like Zimmerman a lot more than the Lesters and Scherzers. Glad to see the Cubs looking to wheel and deal instead of being content to throw piles of money at the Hot Free Agents.

 

[Grahamburn]

Latest rumors on the Cubs beat: Cubs trying to get Jordan Zimmerman from the Nationals. I'd love to see that happen. I like guys like Zimmerman a lot more than the Lesters and Scherzers. Glad to see the Cubs looking to wheel and deal instead of being content to throw piles of money at the Hot Free Agents.

It depends what he costs prospect wise, but I'm pretty much the opposite. Zim is still going to be expensive in arbitration and he's a free agent after 2016. He's also undergone TJ already. I'd prefer not to give up a major prospect as it's pretty much guaranteed some of them won't pan out.

The Cubs are in a much better position now to throw some $$ at free agents than in previous years.

I imagine they're just keeping all of their options open by basically letting GM's and agents know they're in on every available starter.

 

[Dondante]

Photographer friend of mine took some cool shots of Wrigley reno.

He also has some of the coolest weather photography you'll ever see, if you're into that kind of stuff.

I ####### love that damn place.

 

[pantagrapher]

Cubs pick up 2B LaStella for Arodys Vizcaino.

 

[pantagrapher]

Also sounds like the Cubs are still frontrunners for Russell Martin, though the deal sounds closer to 4 years, $64 million. Offensively, I don't see Martin as much of an improvement, unless he can repeat last year's numbers. But as one Cubs beat writer said: "consider this an upgrade for every pitcher on the Cubs staff." That has to be the primary motivation behind this move. Upgrade the pitching staff without paying pitcher salary.

 

[Balco]

Blue Jays just did the Cubs a favor signing Russell Martin.

 

[pantagrapher]

Blue Jays just did the Cubs a favor signing Russell Martin.

I would have been happy with 4/$64, but 5/$85? Yeah, for that price Toronto can have him.

 

[Annyong]

Blue Jays just did the Cubs a favor signing Russell Martin.

I would have been happy with 4/$64, but 5/$85? Yeah, for that price Toronto can have him.

The Blue Jays know he's 32 right?

 

[pantagrapher]

Blue Jays just did the Cubs a favor signing Russell Martin.

I would have been happy with 4/$64, but 5/$85? Yeah, for that price Toronto can have him.

The Blue Jays know he's 32 right?

Yeah, but he plays an easy position that isn't very physically demanding.

 

[Grahamburn]

Dodged a bullet there.

 

[pantagrapher]

Cubs already in first place in their conference.

 

[Raider Nation]

In Back to the Future II, the Cubs win the World Series in 2015.

 

[Grahamburn]

Hammel close to coming back.

Maybe one more year shopping bargain basement and see where they're at in July? Take a look at bounce back candidates like Masterson or Morrow on short deals. Go after the ace (Price) after this season.

 

[Wrigley]

2@18m isn't a basement price.

 

[pantagrapher]

Here's fangraphs on the move.

 

[Grahamburn]

2@18m isn't a basement price.

Short commitment at a going rate less than veteran arms got last year. Lester and Scherzer are tempting, but 7 years and $150 million+ is scary.

 

[Limp Ditka]

That sound you hear is the deafening silence that comes with settling for what you can get instead of what you want

 

[Eephus]

That sound you hear is the deafening silence that comes with settling for what you can get instead of what you want

The Hammel deal is like getting $18M worth of socks and underwear for Xmas

 

[Annyong]

That sound you hear is the deafening silence that comes with settling for what you can get instead of what you want

shut up

 

[pantagrapher]

That sound you hear is the deafening silence that comes with settling for what you can get instead of what you want

Cubs will get Lester for 6/152. It's not my money, so I guess I can live with it.

 

[Grahamburn]

I'd rather them spend money locking up their young position prospects than using it on Jon Lester when he's 40 years old.

 

[pantagrapher]

Depending whom you believe, Cubs are either close or not close to trading pitching prospects for Miguel Montero.

 

[Grahamburn]

Depending whom you believe, Cubs are either close or not close to trading pitching prospects for Miguel Montero.

They must really dislike something about Castillo.

 

[Limp Ditka]

@philgrogers: Sportswriter math on state tax on $150 million contract -- $19.95 m in Calornia, $7.725 m in Massachusetts & $5.625 m in Illinois.

 

[Grahamburn]

@philgrogers: Sportswriter math on state tax on $150 million contract -- $19.95 m in Calornia, $7.725 m in Massachusetts & $5.625 m in Illinois.

It's a lock.

 

[pantagrapher]

Depending whom you believe, Cubs are either close or not close to trading pitching prospects for Miguel Montero.

They must really dislike something about Castillo.

I do remember a fangraphs article about halfway into last season that showed Cubs pitchers were getting the smallest strike zone in baseball. I like Castillo, but something like that is hard to ignore. And I'm guessing with the way they pursued Martin, the Cubs are very confident in the accuracy of pitch framing data. Montero is well above average in that department, from what I've read (I haven't seen the actual data), and he's a lefty, so I can understand why they're making a play for him.

Sounds like this deal is done by the end of today.

 

[Grahamburn]

I do like the idea of Montero for 3 years coming off a bad year vs. Martin for 5 years coming off a career year. Solid platoon with Castillo and a nice stopgap to give Schwarber time.

 

[Grahamburn]

From Fangraphs:

By StatCorner’s calculations, Montero’s framing in 2014 was worth +24 runs, the best in major league baseball.

According to BaseballProspectus, Montero’s framing was worth about +19 runs, putting him in the top 10. Castillo, on the other hand, was valued at -24 runs by StatCorner and -11 by BP, putting him in the bottom five. No matter how much weight you put into the framing numbers, or which site’s formula you trust more, it’s clear: in going from Castillo to Montero, the Cubs would be going from one of the league’s worst framers to one of the best.

Well there you go.