Seems like the original comment was directed towards owners in casual redraft FF leagues with 12 teams and 2 RBs. In other words, the opposite of everyone reading this thread.
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Chris Ivory (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter RavenLunatic
- Start date
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
Which is odd to me being that its stinking April. And most of the people viewing these boards are Dynasty owners not redraft league owners.
Phenix
Footballguy
Since you are providing sarcasm, let me interject.Apparently all you guys know more then Sigmund Bloom and Matt Waldman. Sorry for questioning you.
Honestly, whos to say they know more or whos to say they dont? We all watch games, most of us study this, some are fortunate enough to start a website years ago before Fantasy really took off and they cornered the market on FF Nerds like us. That does not mean you know more, per say. So is it possible just a no name dude logging in can know more then Bloom and Waldman?
Yes it is. I have seen them two be wrong before.
In my opinion, and no disrespect to Waldman or Bloom.
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Phenix
Footballguy
Also....
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported on Total Access Sunday that the Jets remain interested in trading a fifth-round pick for Chris Ivory.
This deal seems likely to go down on draft day, perhaps on Friday or Saturday. ESPN's John Clayton also tweeted Sunday that the Jets are indeed offering a fifth-rounder for Ivory. New York's 2013 fifth-round pick is No. 141 overall. Saints GM Mickey Loomis will likely ask for the Jets' fourth-rounder at No. 106.
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported on Total Access Sunday that the Jets remain interested in trading a fifth-round pick for Chris Ivory.
This deal seems likely to go down on draft day, perhaps on Friday or Saturday. ESPN's John Clayton also tweeted Sunday that the Jets are indeed offering a fifth-rounder for Ivory. New York's 2013 fifth-round pick is No. 141 overall. Saints GM Mickey Loomis will likely ask for the Jets' fourth-rounder at No. 106.
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
My point was Waldman, Bloom watch a lot more game film and know what to watch for more so then a lot of us FF owners on a forum do!!! That is all I"m saying. I would trust them before a lot of the masses on here. Are they wrong sometimes? Of course. Sigmund was wrong on Jacquizz Rodgers. He is more right then he is wrong though. Just my 2 cents. I'd say he is a low end RB2 in mid to large leagues. That's if he goes to the Jets. If not. He is an RB3 at best, if they play someone they get a big lead on.
Phenix
Footballguy
Just the opportunity he would get alone makes him a high end #2 RB. It is my opinion that his talent far surpasses that of Greene. His film shows that and Rex is a run first guy, especially if he wants to keep his job, he will keep it on the ground more times then not this year. Plus they might have to end up giving up a 4th this year and even these horrible suits of the Jets brass are smart enough to know thats value as far as his comparison to other rookie RBs available in the 4th. So he will almost be handed the job as he will make a good 2 million.
Would you take the likes of Mathews, Miller or Stewart over him? I wouldnt, their opportunity will be the same, and those are mid RB 2's I speak of.
In my opinion.
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donkshow
Footballguy
Shawnky
Footballguy
Don't think so. But you're entitled to your opinion.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Since when does being traded to the jets vault your value into the stratosphere??
Maybe a few years ago when they had a better Oline and great defense, and they could grind the clock on teams.
That whole team is a mess.
Ivory is a decent player, but I am not going crazy over him getting an opportunity on a terrible team. Maybe I give a late 1st, high 2nd.
Maybe a few years ago when they had a better Oline and great defense, and they could grind the clock on teams.
That whole team is a mess.
Ivory is a decent player, but I am not going crazy over him getting an opportunity on a terrible team. Maybe I give a late 1st, high 2nd.
Rick Blaine
Footballguy
I understand that much of the negative comments about Ivory's fantasy potential on the Jets is centered around this point that the Jets team is just awful. But I think anybody that focuses on that point, more than talent or opportunity, is being a little shortsighted. While offensive prowess is a factor, talent and opportunity typically have a higher priority. At least, in my opinion.
Cleveland sucked last year, but TRich still produced. Ditto Doug Martin. And MJD on a piss poor Jaguars team. The Bills and Eagles look like dumpster fires, but CJ and McCoy held significant value. Even Fred Jackson had value on a bad Bills offense. Talent and opportunity usually supercede overall team performance.
Similarly, some of the top scoring offenses in the NFL don't always necessarily product fantasy RB gold, usually due to a lack of talent and/or opportunity. The Broncos, Chargers, Lions...and the Saints.
So my point is that I don't think the Jets horrible offense should be the main deterrent of Ivory's value IF he gets traded. If you believe in his talent, and/or you believe he will get more opportunity to shine than Goodson or Powell, then I think that has more merit in his ranking. Team performance is more of a secondary or tertiary factor in determining value.
Just my two cents.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I agree with all of this...............except apparently how talented you think Ivory is. He isnt Richardson, Martin, or MJD.
He THEORETICALLY will get a decent opportunity in New York, but so will Goodson and Powell.
Some people are giving up a lot right now for Ivory, something I could not do.
Yes talent and opportunity trump all for dynasty generally....................I am just not very confident he has either of those to make it worth givign up good value for him. And as I said, I would think about giving up pick 12 this year, and probably some kind of early 2nd................but I saw someone in the trade thread dealt pick 6. No
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Powell has probably had 'his chance', as menial as it was. If they were confident in him, they wouldn't have bought in Goodson AND Ivory (If they do).
I liked Powell coming out of the draft, but if the team wasn't confident in him last year, I don't see it changing that much this year. Considering how mediocre he was, as well as Greene.
I liked Powell coming out of the draft, but if the team wasn't confident in him last year, I don't see it changing that much this year. Considering how mediocre he was, as well as Greene.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I don't think bringing in Goodson has anything to do with anything regarding Powell. Every team needs more than one RB obviously, and I am willing to bet they aren't all that confident in Goodson, either.
My guess is they aren't real confident in Ivory either, but a 5th is a small price to pay to get yourself a RB with potential.
The Jets are clearly about to rebuild, and using good draft picks or signing big money free agent RBs makes no sense in the early stages of a rebuild.
Phenix
Footballguy
By Far? What are you going off of? Past performances for said players? You must know something we dont to say BY FAR, Because to be honest, there is no reasonable assumption to say that they are BY FAR better than Ivory. You're just throwing out hyperbole!
One could say Ivory is BY FAR better then them, but again that would just be ones OPINION.
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Phenix
Footballguy
Since when does it not increase ones value? A RB on the bench for one team, then being moved to a team where he can start not increase his value?
To be honest that is the most obvious form a value increasing. Just my opinion.
Well of course its my opinion. I don't feel the need to write "in my opinion" on every subjective comment I write on this message board.
But more substantially -- unless your in a heavy TD or non-PPR league, Ivory just isn't likely to give you more than the other three guys there; and that is assuming he is able to stay healthy and get 200+ carries. He is just going to give up too many points in the passing game to those other three guys.
(I will note that my initial post was made based on my continued assumption that D-will will not be in Carolina next year. If I'm wrong on that, I'd have to rethink my opinion on him vs Ivory)
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
:whoosh:
I was just putting my 2 cents in but whatever. Don't see why its difficult to see Ivory go from an RB4 to an RB2 by going to the Jets where he could be the main RB. Maybe I'm missing something here.
Phenix
Footballguy
You know all this without the trade even being finalized yet? Nice, can you pick tomorrows lotto numbers too for me, I'm broke and could use a win.
I feel the need to remind everyone its my opinion, even put it in my sig, as many do forget this is a message board full of opinions.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Reminds me of a poor man's Marshawn Lynch. Just a violent runner.
saintfool
Dead sexy
there was a time when i thought he ran like marion barber during those early cowboy seasons.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
the Marion the Barbarian years....he was fun to watch. Like the tazmanian devil.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Me too. But that 5+ YPC is the difference. Faster and more powerful than MBIII. Poor man's Lynch is best comparison in my eyes.
"The Waterboy"
Footballguy
I've had Ivory stashed since last years draft. I love this kid, injury history aside! I agree with most of the positive things that are being posted but some of the negative posts have very valid points as well. Same old story, risk vs reward....my issue now is that my cuts are due at midnight tonight and my last one is between Ivory and Bryce Brown. Was hoping a deal would have been finalized by now!! If anyone wants to put their 2 cents in, please do or send my a pm. Leaning towards keeping Ivory as Brown looked really pedestrian after Def's started game planning for him.....
WB
WB
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Well, Ivory is going to get his chance either this year or next (UFA after this year if not under contract), whereas Brown is a backup or committee guy for a while. If you believe in Ivory, I think you have to keep him.
"The Waterboy"
Footballguy
Ty for the reassurance, lott's!!! I just dropped Brown. I think that Ivory has the "higher ceiling" in their current situations. I'm really interested to see what Ivory could do with the right oppurtunity and maybe a little luck on the health issue.....
WB
WB
Rolling_akg
Footballguy
Poor man's legarette blount
+1
Glad to see there is a voice of sanity in this storm of Ivory hysteria.
I'd like to see him get his chance and succeed (who doesn't like a good underdog story?), but let's be realistic here. He had one good stretch run three years ago, doesn't catch passes, and has a long injury history. Probability says this guy is a longshot to be in the starting lineup of a successful FF team, much less be considered a high end RB2 during the offseason.
I'd say his chances of finishing in these tiers, if traded, are as follows:
Top 12 - 1%
Top 24 - 10%
Top 36 - 25%
Sure, he finished RB36 in 12 games on the Saints, but that offense was clicking and he was the only man standing. On the Jets, he'll have Goodson to compete with who is absolutely more talented than him in some aspects, so it will at best be a situational split. Those percentages that I pulled out of my *** also take into account injury.
I know I'll get flamed, but I think Ivory is more James Starks than Michael Turner.
Within context though, Starks is somewhat incomparable. I know a lot of us don't THINK he's that talented... But another FO is willing to trade a 4th/5th round pick for him. For us, we sort of 'look down' on picks that late when they're undeniably of considerable value to a team confident in themselves that happens to be in a rebuild, ie, needs as many picks and young players they can get. Goodson is in a similar situation, given they paid the man, but it isn't totally comparable, especially if Ivory gets a semi-decent contract extension.
Both will get their chance, but if Ivory is 'just another guy' signed as a FA, this likely wouldn't be as much of a discussion as it is.
That being said, the pair who said they would prefer him to Stewart/Mathews/Miller are clearly in the 'hyperbole' category, who don't really offer great comparative value to the standard opinion, given they're obviously so high on him.
Both will get their chance, but if Ivory is 'just another guy' signed as a FA, this likely wouldn't be as much of a discussion as it is.
That being said, the pair who said they would prefer him to Stewart/Mathews/Miller are clearly in the 'hyperbole' category, who don't really offer great comparative value to the standard opinion, given they're obviously so high on him.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I agree, Id take Lamar miller, Stewart and Mathews over Ivory.
try to sell Ivory for any of those guys in dynasty even after his situation is clearer (traded to NYJ) and I think you will get rejected.
Phenix
Footballguy
Someone who brings sanity or just agrees with you?
You obviously dislike the guy far past reasoning. Point made, you do not think he will be anything at all, he is trash and garbage, you made yourself clear.
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Phenix
Footballguy
Interesting, what has Mathews done? Besides having an even worse injury track record, getting a shot at the staring gig that Ivory has not had yet and has not been effective, also does not play 3rd downs as well. Hey, didnt Ivory score more TDs then Mathews on far less playing time? Yikes.
All of which play into the factors of not valuing Ivory high.
You know what, yup, you sold me. I'll take Mathews over Ivory every time.
Should i get started on Stewarts injury track record now as well?
Also, even though you did not send Mathews or any of the said players for Ivory, did you not attempt to get him from me just for this instance of him becoming a starter for a team in one of our leagues Sniffer? So you see some value in him as well.
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
and you tried to get mathews from me, whats your point there?
Im saying his value wont be worth any of those guys YOU listed. even if he is traded to NYJ.
Ivory isnt the picture of great health himself and his nubmers IN MY OPINION are inflated due to a small sample size and having a HOF QB with an elite passing game.
Phenix
Footballguy
Yes I tried to get Mathews, he is at an extreme buy low, I try to get all buy lows.
You keep repeating what everyone who dislikes Ivory is saying. The same old Injury stuff, Jets sucks stuff, because of elite QB stuff, blah blah blah. His risk is no more than anyone elses injury risk, its the NFL. Any given play.
Tell, me how has Ingram done with that elite QB btw?
steelcityman
Footballguy
I have Ivory in a dynasty league, pretty much had to keep him or Nick Foles. Glad I kept Ivory, if he moves to NYJ, hopefully by Thursday!
Then I would really like it if the Jets took Mingo at 9, and maybe Fluker at 13. Winning teams are built from lines, O and D.
I dont like the NYJ one bit, but I like money. And Ivory going to the NYJ helps and so would him getting a top OL.
Then I would really like it if the Jets took Mingo at 9, and maybe Fluker at 13. Winning teams are built from lines, O and D.
I dont like the NYJ one bit, but I like money. And Ivory going to the NYJ helps and so would him getting a top OL.
Sanity.
I don't dislike Ivory. I don't think he's trash. I'm rooting for him. But I'm also being realistic.
Tau837
Footballguy
You said if Ivory is traded to the Jets, you give him only a 10% chance of finishing in the top 24 RBs. I don't think that is being realistic. I wouldn't say it is a lock, but it's much higher than 10%.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Some people are labelling Ivory in the Turner category? Seriously?
Turner is/was the anamoly and he ended up being a volume guy that relied on a lot of touches and scoring TD's to be what he was. He also was playing on an offense that is/was much better than what Ivory would be playing on if he was to end up in NY.
Now there is an opportunity if Ivory ends up in NY. Greene who is a plodder ended up with some ok numbers even last year in an awful situation. Greene ran the ball 276 carries for 1063 yards, and 8 td's. He also had 19 catches for an extra 151 yards.
A couple of things need to happen for Ivory to have worth in NY. He will have to remain healthy and have a high volume of touches and add tds'. Ivory will lose all 3rd down work to Goodson who is more complete back than Ivory. Ivory though would seem to be the guy to get the TD's. Ivory had 2 catches last year and only has 3 career receptions.
Greene last year especially in non ppr leagues was useless most of the time and would not have helped many win a championship. In fact I am assuming even though he finished in the top 24 he would have not been a regular starter on most fantasy squads.
I just am failing to see this "big" upside for Ivory even if he is on the Jets.
Turner is/was the anamoly and he ended up being a volume guy that relied on a lot of touches and scoring TD's to be what he was. He also was playing on an offense that is/was much better than what Ivory would be playing on if he was to end up in NY.
Now there is an opportunity if Ivory ends up in NY. Greene who is a plodder ended up with some ok numbers even last year in an awful situation. Greene ran the ball 276 carries for 1063 yards, and 8 td's. He also had 19 catches for an extra 151 yards.
A couple of things need to happen for Ivory to have worth in NY. He will have to remain healthy and have a high volume of touches and add tds'. Ivory will lose all 3rd down work to Goodson who is more complete back than Ivory. Ivory though would seem to be the guy to get the TD's. Ivory had 2 catches last year and only has 3 career receptions.
Greene last year especially in non ppr leagues was useless most of the time and would not have helped many win a championship. In fact I am assuming even though he finished in the top 24 he would have not been a regular starter on most fantasy squads.
I just am failing to see this "big" upside for Ivory even if he is on the Jets.
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I agree that it sounds low, but if you think about all the obstacles, it's much more reasonable. This team's defense keeps getting worse. The offense took a huge step backwards last year.
Def Off
14.8 21.8
19.0 22.9
22.7 23.6
23.4 17.6
Best case scenario is that Ivory is the LeShoure to Goodson's Bell (or the Blount vs. Graham/Lumpkin of 2011). I think the Jets are going to find themselves behind quite a bit, so Ivory will be inconsistent if he does get the majority of the carries.
I think there is a pretty good chance this is a true RBBC in which case I don't think Ivory will finish top 24 even IF he plays 16 games.
Basically, I think Ivory will need 200 carries to break into the top 24. I think there's only a 10% chance he gets that many given injury, competition, and situation (bad offense, bad defense). If you said 20%, I could possibly get behind that. But I really think anything above a 20% chance of RB2 production is wishful thinking.
I have Ivory in several places, but I don't see him getting half of the catches Greene got last year. I also think Goodson will eat more into his carries than Powell did for Greene. Ivory is a guy that has a history of nagging injuries, and I expect the Jets to try to limit his carries somewhat as a way to keep him (and Goodson) both fresh.
Mookie
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Greene had 19 catches last season. How much does that really matter for purposes of projecting Ivory (assuming the Jets trade for Ivory)?
Greene had 276 carries last season; other Jets RBs combined for 172. What are you projecting for Ivory and Goodson this year (assuming the Jets trade for Ivory)?
I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.
....um, ok...?
You disagree with that. You want to know how Greene's carries are going to be split. But I haven't seen you list your expectations. I guess I should have put "realistic" best case scenario. Obviously, best case scenario is that he becomes 2003 Tomlinson and gets almost every RB carry and almost every RB reception. Do you somehow expect him to wrestle receptions away from Goodson? Do you think he'll be in the game when they are down by 2 touchdowns in the 4th? Why do you disagree and what do you predict as an alternative?
