Chris Ivory (1 Viewer)

[Cookiemonster]

Best case scenario is that Ivory is the LeShoure to Goodson's Bell (or the Blount vs. Graham/Lumpkin of 2011). I think the Jets are going to find themselves behind quite a bit, so Ivory will be inconsistent if he does get the majority of the carries.

And I was thinking more of a Marion Barber role. The Barbarian had some very nice stretches.

 

[Faust]

Chris Ivory isn't close to leaving New Orleans Saints:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000162674/article/chris-ivory-isnt-close-to-leaving-new-orleans-saints

 

[Tau837]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets.

Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries.

Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc.

Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative.

Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards.

Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr).

Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts.

840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points.

Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points.

So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy.

I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

 

[Phenix]

Assuming a trade, I see Ivory occupying Greene's old role with the Jets, and Greene was RB18 last year despite being terrible. To me, Ivory would fall somewhere between RB15 and RB25. That is a nice uptick in his value.

This.

 

[Tau837]

Best case scenario is that Ivory is the LeShoure to Goodson's Bell (or the Blount vs. Graham/Lumpkin of 2011).

Completely disagree with this.

....um, ok...?

You disagree with that. You want to know how Greene's carries are going to be split. But I haven't seen you list your expectations. I guess I should have put "realistic" best case scenario. Obviously, best case scenario is that he becomes 2003 Tomlinson and gets almost every RB carry and almost every RB reception. Do you somehow expect him to wrestle receptions away from Goodson? Do you think he'll be in the game when they are down by 2 touchdowns in the 4th? Why do you disagree and what do you predict as an alternative?

Perhaps it was a semantic disagreement. You said best case, and, as you point out here, best case would be far better than Leshoure. There isn't a strong likelihood of a best case scenario, but even a reasonable projection such as in my previous post shows that, barring injury, he would be valuable and would be very close to top 24.

Not sure about taking receptions from Goodson, but if Ivory is the first and second down RB, he will certainly get some receptions. In my previous post, I assumed only 5 receptions because of the post I was responding to, but I think he should have 15+ if he stays healthy.

 

[gianmarco]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets.

Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries.

Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc.

Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative.

Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards.

Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr).

Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts.

840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points.

Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points.

So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy.

I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost.

This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

 

[jonboltz]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets.

Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries.

Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc.

Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative.

Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards.

Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr).

Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts.

840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points.

Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points.

So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy.

I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

He certainly holds more value in standard scoring leagues than PPR. In PPR, those numbers are much worse.

 

[Mookie]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets.

Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries.

Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc.

Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative.

Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards.

Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr).

Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts.

840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points.

Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points.

So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy.

I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost.

This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

Of course it's useful fantasy value. It has value as a flex play, a bye week filler, or to cover for an injury to another RB. It has value as a spot starter with a good matchup. It has value for QB/WR/TE heavy teams looking for a RB who will get them 8-12 pts. I agree that having Ivory as your RB2 is not ideal, but as your RB4, he's got tremendous value. Hell, even for trade purposes, his value is moving way up.

 

[donkshow]

Ivory is the perfect flex/bye-week filler with RB2 upside IMO.

He'll finish in the RB15-25 range.

 

[Tau837]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

 

[Phenix]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform.

But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

 

[jonboltz]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform.

But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but...

1. He has to be healthy to get the ball.

2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances.

3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game.

4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

 

[bonesman]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform.

But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but...

1. He has to be healthy to get the ball.

2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances.

3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game.

4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

He's missed about 50% of his teams games played.

 

[Tau837]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform. But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but... 1. He has to be healthy to get the ball. 2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances. 3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game. 4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

He's missed about 50% of his teams games played.

So you are predicting him to play 8 games this season?

 

[bonesman]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform. But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but... 1. He has to be healthy to get the ball. 2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances. 3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game. 4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

He's missed about 50% of his teams games played.

So you are predicting him to play 8 games this season?

I haven't predicted anything specific for Ivory. If I were to predict how many games he was gonna play in 2013 it would be less than 16 though.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

Wow, I'm loving all the negativity toward Ivory's value. Love it! I may be able to get him more cheaply than I thought.

His YPC will exceed JWB's admittedly conservative 4.2 by the way, I'm pretty confident of that.

And the argument that they will be playing from behind will be no more true for him than it was for Greene last year. He's a better goal line back than Greene, a better all around back than Greene.

As was noted above, suggesting that RB18-24 holds little value is nonsense. Folks I guess forget how byes, injuries, unexpected Mathews-like seasons can derail a season. If you'd rather not have Ivory available on your bench (or already in your lineup), I'll take him thanks.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Wow, I'm loving all the negativity toward Ivory's value. Love it! I may be able to get him more cheaply than I thought.

His YPC will exceed JWB's admittedly conservative 4.2 by the way, I'm pretty confident of that.

And the argument that they will be playing from behind will be no more true for him than it was for Greene last year. He's a better goal line back than Greene, a better all around back than Greene.

As was noted above, suggesting that RB18-24 holds little value is nonsense. Folks I guess forget how byes, injuries, unexpected Mathews-like seasons can derail a season. If you'd rather not have Ivory available on your bench (or already in your lineup), I'll take him thanks.

Give me the rb that has the higher ppg then the guy who ends up in the 18-24 range due to volume, or other players being injured etc.

Danny Woodhead, Joique Bell, and D. Williams all finished in one of my leagues in the 18-24 range and I can say they held little to no value. If owned Ryan Matthews last year I did not get far starting any of those guys last year.

I think best case scenario he can have BGE/Greene numbers of last year (not awful, but not great). It seems as though some in this thread assume that he could be that player like Turner who with a move to a new team will surprise and be able to run for 1500 yards and have double digit td's and or find a way to sneak into the top 12 rb's.

Someone will like him more than me and therefore I won't end up with him on many of my teams.

 

[scothawk]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform. But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but... 1. He has to be healthy to get the ball. 2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances. 3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game. 4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

He's missed about 50% of his teams games played.

So you are predicting him to play 8 games this season?

I haven't predicted anything specific for Ivory. If I were to predict how many games he was gonna play in 2013 it would be less than 16 though.

If he does get traded to the Jets, we can work on the assumption it will not be more than 16 either.

 

[jacobo_moses]

Wow, I'm loving all the negativity toward Ivory's value. Love it! I may be able to get him more cheaply than I thought.

His YPC will exceed JWB's admittedly conservative 4.2 by the way, I'm pretty confident of that.

And the argument that they will be playing from behind will be no more true for him than it was for Greene last year. He's a better goal line back than Greene, a better all around back than Greene.

As was noted above, suggesting that RB18-24 holds little value is nonsense. Folks I guess forget how byes, injuries, unexpected Mathews-like seasons can derail a season. If you'd rather not have Ivory available on your bench (or already in your lineup), I'll take him thanks.

 

[jacobo_moses]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform.

But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but...

1. He has to be healthy to get the ball.

2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances.

3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game.

4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

My issue with the one I put in bold above is this. It's hard to be involved in the passing game when A) You have Drew Brees who spreads it around. B) You have Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles on your team. Last time I checked they were dang good passing catching RB's. So I don't think it's because he can't. I think its because Ivory isn't called on to do that in his current situation. When I watched the highlights that Sigmund Bloom posted on Ivory. The few times he did have to catch the ball. He did just fine. (Now I'm not saying he can't improve there.) But its hard to do it when you have the situation you do currently for Ivory with the Saints.

 

[Phenix]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform. But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but... 1. He has to be healthy to get the ball. 2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances. 3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game. 4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

He's missed about 50% of his teams games played.

So you are predicting him to play 8 games this season?

I haven't predicted anything specific for Ivory. If I were to predict how many games he was gonna play in 2013 it would be less than 16 though.

So if you got a ticket for speeding last year, and the year before because of running a red light, are you certain to get a ticket this year?

 

[Phenix]

Wow, I'm loving all the negativity toward Ivory's value. Love it! I may be able to get him more cheaply than I thought.

His YPC will exceed JWB's admittedly conservative 4.2 by the way, I'm pretty confident of that.

And the argument that they will be playing from behind will be no more true for him than it was for Greene last year. He's a better goal line back than Greene, a better all around back than Greene.

As was noted above, suggesting that RB18-24 holds little value is nonsense. Folks I guess forget how byes, injuries, unexpected Mathews-like seasons can derail a season. If you'd rather not have Ivory available on your bench (or already in your lineup), I'll take him thanks.

BAM! Couldnt of said it better.

 

[Phenix]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform.

But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but...

1. He has to be healthy to get the ball.

2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances.

3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game.

4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

My issue with the one I put in bold above is this. It's hard to be involved in the passing game when A) You have Drew Brees who spreads it around. B) You have Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles on your team. Last time I checked they were dang good passing catching RB's. So I don't think it's because he can't. I think its because Ivory isn't called on to do that in his current situation. When I watched the highlights that Sigmund Bloom posted on Ivory. The few times he did have to catch the ball. He did just fine. (Now I'm not saying he can't improve there.) But its hard to do it when you have the situation you do currently for Ivory with the Saints.

While I love Ivory, I'm sure as heck not taking Sproles out in passing downs to appease the haters of Ivory so Ivory can catch passes. The agendas some have are just like the NFL during draft time, make a persons value lower.

When common sense tells any person without an agenda that a RB buried on a depth chart for one team then getting traded to a team where he may start is a major increase in value. Not even debatable.

 

[jonboltz]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform.

But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but...

1. He has to be healthy to get the ball.

2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances.

3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game.

4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

My issue with the one I put in bold above is this. It's hard to be involved in the passing game when A) You have Drew Brees who spreads it around. B) You have Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles on your team. Last time I checked they were dang good passing catching RB's. So I don't think it's because he can't. I think its because Ivory isn't called on to do that in his current situation. When I watched the highlights that Sigmund Bloom posted on Ivory. The few times he did have to catch the ball. He did just fine. (Now I'm not saying he can't improve there.) But its hard to do it when you have the situation you do currently for Ivory with the Saints.

In 2010, he led the Saints in rushing while Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas were injured for most of the year. The trotted out retreads such as Ladell Betts (23 rec) and Julius Jones (17 rec). Ivory had 173 carries in 12 games -- and one single reception.

So I don't think being behind Sproles and Thomas was as big of an issue. But, even if Ivory is able to improve slightly in that facet of the game -- he will still be far behind Goodson, who is every bit as good of a receiver as Thomas (better actually, IMHO). When he was coming out of the draft, there was a good amount of speculation that teams might want to convert him to a WR.

 

[jonboltz]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform.

But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but...

1. He has to be healthy to get the ball.

2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances.

3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game.

4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

My issue with the one I put in bold above is this. It's hard to be involved in the passing game when A) You have Drew Brees who spreads it around. B) You have Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles on your team. Last time I checked they were dang good passing catching RB's. So I don't think it's because he can't. I think its because Ivory isn't called on to do that in his current situation. When I watched the highlights that Sigmund Bloom posted on Ivory. The few times he did have to catch the ball. He did just fine. (Now I'm not saying he can't improve there.) But its hard to do it when you have the situation you do currently for Ivory with the Saints.

While I love Ivory, I'm sure as heck not taking Sproles out in passing downs to appease the haters of Ivory so Ivory can catch passes. The agendas some have are just like the NFL during draft time, make a persons value lower.

When common sense tells any person without an agenda that a RB buried on a depth chart for one team then getting traded to a team where he may start is a major increase in value. Not even debatable.

What about 2010?

People disagreeing with you and attempting to put a realistic interpretation (in their eyes) of the situation aren't "haters" with "agendas". I personally own Ivory in more than half of my leagues.

 

[Phenix]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform.

But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but...

1. He has to be healthy to get the ball.

2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances.

3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game.

4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

My issue with the one I put in bold above is this. It's hard to be involved in the passing game when A) You have Drew Brees who spreads it around. B) You have Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles on your team. Last time I checked they were dang good passing catching RB's. So I don't think it's because he can't. I think its because Ivory isn't called on to do that in his current situation. When I watched the highlights that Sigmund Bloom posted on Ivory. The few times he did have to catch the ball. He did just fine. (Now I'm not saying he can't improve there.) But its hard to do it when you have the situation you do currently for Ivory with the Saints.

While I love Ivory, I'm sure as heck not taking Sproles out in passing downs to appease the haters of Ivory so Ivory can catch passes. The agendas some have are just like the NFL during draft time, make a persons value lower.

When common sense tells any person without an agenda that a RB buried on a depth chart for one team then getting traded to a team where he may start is a major increase in value. Not even debatable.

What about 2010?

People disagreeing with you and attempting to put a realistic interpretation (in their eyes) of the situation aren't "haters" with "agendas". I personally own Ivory in more than half of my leagues.

Jones (17), Betts (23), Thomas (29) and Bush (34), how many did you expect him to catch over those guys in his rookie season? I'm sure a bunch as it helps your case. In his rookie season he managed to earn the power back spot while all these others had to play while healthy. I have never said that Ivory is a PPR hoss or will he be one this year. There is more to catching passes to earning points in fantasy, like yards and TDs, IN MY OPINION! Morris did pretty well catching only 11 passes as he finished in the top 10, so it can be done. Cant wait for the did you just compare Ivory to Morris responses.

So, No, in my opinion SOME are haters and have agendas. Not for disagreeing with me, but for trying to think football only has one facet and that injuries are certain to happen when its football and it can happen on any play to anyone.

After all, maybe I need to continue to put "In My Opinion" in every post.

 

[FF Ninja]

Perhaps it was a semantic disagreement. You said best case, and, as you point out here, best case would be far better than Leshoure. There isn't a strong likelihood of a best case scenario, but even a reasonable projection such as in my previous post shows that, barring injury, he would be valuable and would be very close to top 24.

Not sure about taking receptions from Goodson, but if Ivory is the first and second down RB, he will certainly get some receptions. In my previous post, I assumed only 5 receptions because of the post I was responding to, but I think he should have 15+ if he stays healthy.

Fair enough, but is it really worth nit picking when best case scenario is always meant as a realistic best case? Why even discuss a best case where he catches 50 receptions because I think even Opie and Phenix know that's not going to happen.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets.

Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries.

Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc.

Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative.

Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards.

Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr).

Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts.

840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points.

Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points.

So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy.

I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

While I agree that 4.2 ypc is conservative, I just don't see the likelihood of 200 rushes being very high. That's why I placed his probability of finishing the year in the top 24 so low. The numbers you ran were from an assumed 16 game season right? Last year's #24 didn't play 16 games. Every year there are players who sneak into end-of-year rankings due to playing 16 games while better fantasy players drop due to missing a few games. If your 16 game projection has him borderline top 24 then that means his PPG is well below RB2 status.

Would a guy who scores 120 points in 16 games have value? Absolutely. He's not a guy you want in there as your RB2 all season, but he'd have value. The reason I'm down on him is a value thing. 11 guys can value him at RB33 but it just takes one guy who think he's a near lock for RB20 production for him to go in the 4th or 5th round. I'm not paying that. I think a trade to the Jets vaults Ivory's value way beyond what it should be for an injury prone 2-down RB with some pretty decent competition and a bad offense.

 

[bonesman]

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but... 1. He has to be healthy to get the ball. 2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances. 3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game. 4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

He's missed about 50% of his teams games played.

So you are predicting him to play 8 games this season?

I haven't predicted anything specific for Ivory. If I were to predict how many games he was gonna play in 2013 it would be less than 16 though.

So if you got a ticket for speeding last year, and the year before because of running a red light, are you certain to get a ticket this year?

I'm not sure that's a very apt analogy. But if we're gonna play that game we're gonna have to think of another traffic infraction because Ivory missed time in his rookie season as well. 3 years straight, every year in the league.

 

[Phenix]

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but... 1. He has to be healthy to get the ball. 2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances. 3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game. 4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

He's missed about 50% of his teams games played.

So you are predicting him to play 8 games this season?

I haven't predicted anything specific for Ivory. If I were to predict how many games he was gonna play in 2013 it would be less than 16 though.

So if you got a ticket for speeding last year, and the year before because of running a red light, are you certain to get a ticket this year?

I'm not sure that's a very apt analogy. But if we're gonna play that game we're gonna have to think of another traffic infraction because Ivory missed time in his rookie season as well. 3 years straight, every year in the league.

The point was, just because something happen in the past does not mean it will in the future.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm predicting Ivory to not get really close to 276 carries. If they want to keep him healthy all year, I think they limit him to 190-200 carries. I think he catches less than 10 balls all year. I think Goodson could get 150 carries, with another 75-100 split between Powell, FB, QB, WRs.

OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets. Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries. Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc. Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative. Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards. Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr). Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts. 840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points. Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points. So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy. I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

Here's the rub. Is this useful fantasy value? I'd argue it's more harmful than useful. If you're starting Ivory on a weekly basis in a start 2 RB league, you are at a significant disadvantage. He might help you a couple weeks of the year when he has a big statistical game, but you're giving up way too much to most any other team with a guy that is scoring 120 points/year. In addition, it's not that difficult to either pick up from the WW or trade for a similar guy at a reduced cost. This is why you sell guys like Ivory (or BJGE or Greene or...) for any type of upside player you can get. This is a great way to remain mediocre and do well enough to not completely suck but never good enough to win it all unless you're absolutely loaded elsewhere. I'd rather move him for some darts with lower current value (i.e. Pierce) that could skyrocket given a certain injury and chance than start a guy getting 8-9 ppg.

For some reason, you bolded my statement that I play in leagues that start 30-56 RBs, but then went on to say that he isn't useful.First of all, you are ignoring the context I presented. Second, you are ignoring upside beyond the projection I provided. Finally, you are ignoring his price.The idea is that you either already hold him, having acquired him cheaply, or you can acquire him cheaply now. That equals value.

People who are trying to make a case against Ivory are not doing very well. What ifs from most of them, when in reality, whenever Ivory has been on the field he performs. Everything else is just a guess, even for those like me saying he will perform.

But at the end of the day, I'll say it again, when he gets the ball he performs. End of story.

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but...

1. He has to be healthy to get the ball.

2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances.

3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game.

4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

My issue with the one I put in bold above is this. It's hard to be involved in the passing game when A) You have Drew Brees who spreads it around. B) You have Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles on your team. Last time I checked they were dang good passing catching RB's. So I don't think it's because he can't. I think its because Ivory isn't called on to do that in his current situation. When I watched the highlights that Sigmund Bloom posted on Ivory. The few times he did have to catch the ball. He did just fine. (Now I'm not saying he can't improve there.) But its hard to do it when you have the situation you do currently for Ivory with the Saints.

First of all, under the assumption he does get traded to the Jets (which hasn't yet happened of course) I'll agree with this. Shonn Greene was not an adept pass catcher either - but he did catch 19 balls last season and 30 the season before. I think projecting Ivory in the 15-20 range isn't a real stretch. I think it's fairly obvious that he will not be used as a 3rd down back, but teams need to throw on first and second downs sometimes as well.

 

[bonesman]

Looks like Ivory couldn't stay healthy at all in his 4 years of college either... averaged 32.5 carries a year. Managing 85 a year as a pro so far, so maybe he's becoming more durable with age.

 

[jacobo_moses]

Perhaps it was a semantic disagreement. You said best case, and, as you point out here, best case would be far better than Leshoure. There isn't a strong likelihood of a best case scenario, but even a reasonable projection such as in my previous post shows that, barring injury, he would be valuable and would be very close to top 24.

Not sure about taking receptions from Goodson, but if Ivory is the first and second down RB, he will certainly get some receptions. In my previous post, I assumed only 5 receptions because of the post I was responding to, but I think he should have 15+ if he stays healthy.

Fair enough, but is it really worth nit picking when best case scenario is always meant as a realistic best case? Why even discuss a best case where he catches 50 receptions because I think even Opie and Phenix know that's not going to happen.

>OK, let's examine this, assuming Ivory is traded to the Jets.

Ivory's career ypc is 5.1, and his lowest single season ypc is 4.7. This despite dealing with various injuries.

Some might say that is inflated due to the Saints' strong passing offense. IMO that is hard to know for sure. Thomas (4.4 ypc) and Ingram (3.9 ypc) were not as good over the past three years. Sproles (6.2) was better, but on substantially fewer carries and also likely running mostly from passing situations, whereas Ivory was typically running in standard/running situations. Still, moving from the Saints offense to the Jets offense, and also increasing his workload beyond what it has been in the past could lead to a reduced ypc.

Last year, the Jets RBs collectively averaged 4.03 ypc, compared to 4.4 for the Saints' RBs. Making a similar adjustment for Ivory would drop him to 4.7 ypc, but I don't think that's quite enough. I'll go with 4.2 ypc, which I believe is fairly conservative.

Using 200 attempts, that works out to 840 rushing yards.

Ivory only has 3 career receptions, and he averaged 10.7 ypr on those. I think he will likely catch more passes than you do, but let's just go with 5 catches on the season for a measly 35 yards (7.0 ypr).

Greene had 14 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons. 10 of those were inside the opponent's 5 yard line. It seems reasonable to expect Ivory to fill the goal line role, at least on downs that are not obvious passing situations. IMO it is reasonable to project Ivory with 6 rushing TDs. That is right in line with his career ratio of 1 rushing TD for every 32 rushing attempts.

840 rushing yards + 35 receiving yards + 6 rushing TDs = 117.5 fantasy points.

Last year, the #24 RB in my non-PPR leagues was either Willis McGahee, with 121.2 fantasy points, or Danny Woodhead, with 116.7 fantasy points.

So this analysis would put Ivory squarely on the bubble for making the top 24. And IMO it is reasonably conservative. The only major risk with this analysis is whether or not he will stay healthy.

I play in leagues where 30-56 RBs can be started in any given week. If Ivory gets 200 touches, he will definitely carry useful fantasy value.

While I agree that 4.2 ypc is conservative, I just don't see the likelihood of 200 rushes being very high. That's why I placed his probability of finishing the year in the top 24 so low. The numbers you ran were from an assumed 16 game season right? Last year's #24 didn't play 16 games. Every year there are players who sneak into end-of-year rankings due to playing 16 games while better fantasy players drop due to missing a few games. If your 16 game projection has him borderline top 24 then that means his PPG is well below RB2 status.

Would a guy who scores 120 points in 16 games have value? Absolutely. He's not a guy you want in there as your RB2 all season, but he'd have value. The reason I'm down on him is a value thing. 11 guys can value him at RB33 but it just takes one guy who think he's a near lock for RB20 production for him to go in the 4th or 5th round. I'm not paying that. I think a trade to the Jets vaults Ivory's value way beyond what it should be for an injury prone 2-down RB with some pretty decent competition and a bad offense.

Deangelo Williams finished as the no 23 RB in my league. Yet he had only 178 Rushes last yr. I think we are putting too much of an emphasis on how many carries. Don't think it matters as much as you guys are playing it up to be.

 

[saintfool]

Looks like Ivory couldn't stay healthy at all in his 4 years of college either... averaged 32.5 carries a year. Managing 85 a year as a pro so far, so maybe he's becoming more durable with age.

If memory serves, Ivory could have played but the Saints had the other RBs healthy. He wasn't injured for the first half of the season. He just couldn't crack the rotation with the other guys ahead of him and healthy.

 

[bonesman]

Looks like Ivory couldn't stay healthy at all in his 4 years of college either... averaged 32.5 carries a year. Managing 85 a year as a pro so far, so maybe he's becoming more durable with age.

If memory serves, Ivory could have played but the Saints had the other RBs healthy. He wasn't injured for the first half of the season. He just couldn't crack the rotation with the other guys ahead of him and healthy.

As a rookie? He sprained his knee (MCL) in the last game of the preseason and missed the first two games. He also had a mild concussion and a seperated shoulder that he played through that season before missing more time at the end with a pulled hammy.

 

[jonboltz]

Looks like Ivory couldn't stay healthy at all in his 4 years of college either... averaged 32.5 carries a year. Managing 85 a year as a pro so far, so maybe he's becoming more durable with age.

If memory serves, Ivory could have played but the Saints had the other RBs healthy. He wasn't injured for the first half of the season. He just couldn't crack the rotation with the other guys ahead of him and healthy.

As a rookie? He sprained his knee (MCL) in the last game of the preseason and missed the first two games. He also had a mild concussion and a seperated shoulder that he played through that season before missing more time at the end with a pulled hammy.

His injury at the end of the season, and having to rely on Julius Jones in the playoffs, directly resulted in them drafting Ingram.

 

[(HULK)]

If he stays healthy, I'd project him like this:

275 carries, 1320 yards

15 receptions, 150 yards

8 to 10 total tds

He is a monster, as long as he's not hurt imo.

 

[saintfool]

Looks like Ivory couldn't stay healthy at all in his 4 years of college either... averaged 32.5 carries a year. Managing 85 a year as a pro so far, so maybe he's becoming more durable with age.

If memory serves, Ivory could have played but the Saints had the other RBs healthy. He wasn't injured for the first half of the season. He just couldn't crack the rotation with the other guys ahead of him and healthy.

As a rookie? He sprained his knee (MCL) in the last game of the preseason and missed the first two games. He also had a mild concussion and a seperated shoulder that he played through that season before missing more time at the end with a pulled hammy.

He could have played before week 8 last year. Whether he could have stayed healthy is another matter altogether. However, for those that just look at the stat sheet and think he wasn't healthy last season, he very well could have played earlier in the year.

 

[Phenix]

If he stays healthy, I'd project him like this:275 carries, 1320 yards15 receptions, 150 yards8 to 10 total tdsHe is a monster, as long as he's not hurt imo.

If traded, and I believe he will be, I see roughly 240/1225/8 scores. 12 catches for an additional 135 yards. At least thats in my opinion. Before these trade talks I believed the kid to have beastly talent and explosiveness. My true conviction is if this guy gets a shot, look out.

 

[bonesman]

Looks like Ivory couldn't stay healthy at all in his 4 years of college either... averaged 32.5 carries a year. Managing 85 a year as a pro so far, so maybe he's becoming more durable with age.

If memory serves, Ivory could have played but the Saints had the other RBs healthy. He wasn't injured for the first half of the season. He just couldn't crack the rotation with the other guys ahead of him and healthy.

As a rookie? He sprained his knee (MCL) in the last game of the preseason and missed the first two games. He also had a mild concussion and a seperated shoulder that he played through that season before missing more time at the end with a pulled hammy.

He could have played before week 8 last year. Whether he could have stayed healthy is another matter altogether. However, for those that just look at the stat sheet and think he wasn't healthy last season, he very well could have played earlier in the year.

Ah, yea. No injuries at the top of last year, just ball security probs and got out played by Cadet.

He still missed time at the end of the year with a hammy (again).

 

[Tau837]

Fair enough, but is it really worth nit picking when best case scenario is always meant as a realistic best case? Why even discuss a best case where he catches 50 receptions because I think even Opie and Phenix know that's not going to happen.

I agree a realistic best case is not going to include 50 receptions, but you are still not really citing a realistic best case. A realistic best case would be something like this: 1. Stays healthy and plays 16 games. It hasn't happened for him to date, but it is certainly possible.2. Gets 14 carries per game. At least 23 players averaged that many carries last season. Greene averaged 17.25 carries per game.3. Averages 4.7 ypc. As previously noted, this is his lowest single season average, and well below his career average.4. Catches 25 passes. As previously noted, Greene caught 19 passes last season and 30 in 2011.5. Averages 9 ypr. His career average is 10.7, albeit on just 3 catches.6. Gets 10 TDs. Greene had 8 last year, so a realistic best case would be that Ivory gets those same goal line carries and breaks a couple more longer TDs. That's 188 fantasy points (non-PPR). That would have ranked as RB #12 last year. I'm not saying that is his expected case. I'm saying that is a realistic best case. An unrealistic best case would of course be much higher, like Michael Turner in his first year in Atlanta, etc.

While I agree that 4.2 ypc is conservative, I just don't see the likelihood of 200 rushes being very high. That's why I placed his probability of finishing the year in the top 24 so low. The numbers you ran were from an assumed 16 game season right? Last year's #24 didn't play 16 games. Every year there are players who sneak into end-of-year rankings due to playing 16 games while better fantasy players drop due to missing a few games. If your 16 game projection has him borderline top 24 then that means his PPG is well below RB2 status. Would a guy who scores 120 points in 16 games have value? Absolutely. He's not a guy you want in there as your RB2 all season, but he'd have value. The reason I'm down on him is a value thing. 11 guys can value him at RB33 but it just takes one guy who think he's a near lock for RB20 production for him to go in the 4th or 5th round. I'm not paying that. I think a trade to the Jets vaults Ivory's value way beyond what it should be for an injury prone 2-down RB with some pretty decent competition and a bad offense.

So your entire perspective is tied to not being able to get good value for him in a redraft? I was under the impression that we were generally talking in this thread about the opportunity in front of him and how he might perform with it. You could say the same thing about almost any player in the NFL, i.e., that it only takes one owner to overvalue him and take him before you would. I don't see that as being particularly relevant to the discussion. The bolded is all I and a number of others have been getting at all along.

 

[saintfool]

Looks like Ivory couldn't stay healthy at all in his 4 years of college either... averaged 32.5 carries a year. Managing 85 a year as a pro so far, so maybe he's becoming more durable with age.

If memory serves, Ivory could have played but the Saints had the other RBs healthy. He wasn't injured for the first half of the season. He just couldn't crack the rotation with the other guys ahead of him and healthy.

As a rookie? He sprained his knee (MCL) in the last game of the preseason and missed the first two games. He also had a mild concussion and a seperated shoulder that he played through that season before missing more time at the end with a pulled hammy.

He could have played before week 8 last year. Whether he could have stayed healthy is another matter altogether. However, for those that just look at the stat sheet and think he wasn't healthy last season, he very well could have played earlier in the year.

Ah, yea. No injuries at the top of last year, just ball security probs and got out played by Cadet.

He still missed time at the end of the year with a hammy (again).

Ivory's been fine with holding onto the ball since his rookie year but it's a small sample size. Though he did hold onto it just fine when he was the primary RB down the stretch his rookie year.

Cadet is interesting but I don't think "out-playing" Ivory. Two different types of backs really, with different responsibilities and roles.

 

[bonesman]

The ball security comment was based on a series of rotoworld blurbs over a weeks span from last August that mentioned he had been fumbling too much in practice and at least once in a preseason game.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

What if... what if... what if...

So, the Jets are reportedly offering their 5th (141), and the Saints want the 4th (106).

What if... the Broncos jumped in offering their 4th (125)?

I won't call it a prediction but it also wouldn't shock me if Ivory becomes a Bronco instead of a Jet.

 

[replacements]

What if... what if... what if...

So, the Jets are reportedly offering their 5th (141), and the Saints want the 4th (106).

What if... the Broncos jumped in offering their 4th (125)?

I won't call it a prediction but it also wouldn't shock me if Ivory becomes a Bronco instead of a Jet.

Have you actually heard any rumors saying that denver is interested in Ivory? I think he would be a very good fit there, However I have not read or heard anything to support this. I'm not sure that Greenbay has a 4th, but without knowing that a team is interested, I could speculate that any team that has a need at running back and a mid to late 4th is an option to jump into the mix.

 

[Cookiemonster]

What if... what if... what if...

So, the Jets are reportedly offering their 5th (141), and the Saints want the 4th (106).

What if... the Broncos jumped in offering their 4th (125)?

I won't call it a prediction but it also wouldn't shock me if Ivory becomes a Bronco instead of a Jet.

Or Steelers... or Packers...

I'm just hoping he doesn't stay with the Saints. Anything else is very inspiring.

 

[Phenix]

Did the trade already happen? Drew Brees may have spilled the beans.

Drew Brees "I've heard Chris Ivory has been traded to the #Jets. I'm not entirely sure. I haven't read it anywhere, just kind of heard it."

http://www.saintsnews.net/2013/04/24/drew-brees-mightve-spilled-beans-on-chris-ivory-trade/

 

[Bruce Hammond]

What if... what if... what if...

So, the Jets are reportedly offering their 5th (141), and the Saints want the 4th (106).

What if... the Broncos jumped in offering their 4th (125)?

I won't call it a prediction but it also wouldn't shock me if Ivory becomes a Bronco instead of a Jet.

Have you actually heard any rumors saying that denver is interested in Ivory? I think he would be a very good fit there, However I have not read or heard anything to support this. I'm not sure that Greenbay has a 4th, but without knowing that a team is interested, I could speculate that any team that has a need at running back and a mid to late 4th is an option to jump into the mix.

No, just connecting dots. I've read a couple of times the Broncos want to either release McGahee or make him a complementary player at a reduced cost. I know John Fox has never liked starting rookies, especially now protecting their 37 YO franchise QB. Hillman is reportedly not in consideration for feature back duties (per Elway). Moreno had offseason suggery, they didn't like him before last year and his production in 2012 was more on volume than YPC. The Super Bowl time window is small. Bradshaw is gimpy and maybe looking elsewhere. Wells is gimpy and maybe no longer useful. DeAngelo Williams is no sure bet to sign with them. So, like I said, connecting dots.

The link at Phenix post 197 above may make all this speculation moot though.

 

[DropKick]

I don't think anyone is saying that he doesn't perform when given the ball, but... 1. He has to be healthy to get the ball. 2. Because of his history with injuries, *even if he is capable of staying injury free*, I don't think the Jets coaches are going to feed him 15-16 carries per game and take their chances. 3. He contributes almost nothing in the passing game. 4. His team will likely be playing from behind often, which reinforces the problem in the 3rd point here.

He's missed about 50% of his teams games played.

So you are predicting him to play 8 games this season?

I haven't predicted anything specific for Ivory. If I were to predict how many games he was gonna play in 2013 it would be less than 16 though.

So if you got a ticket for speeding last year, and the year before because of running a red light, are you certain to get a ticket this year?

I'm not sure that's a very apt analogy. But if we're gonna play that game we're gonna have to think of another traffic infraction because Ivory missed time in his rookie season as well. 3 years straight, every year in the league.

The point was, just because something happen in the past does not mean it will in the future.

You don't work in the insurance industry do you?

 

[Bruce Hammond]

I made 4 offers in 3 PPR dynasty leagues yesterday for Ivory... all rejected, maybe not surprisingly, but just a FYI anyway:

Frank Gore

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (same owner)

DeAngelo Williams (same owner)

Daryl Richardson

I thought maybe since the Saints-Jets trade still has not happened it might increase my chances, but no dice.

 

[Kree]

Depending on their team layout, surprised by Gore a bit. Richardson is sorta similar, but his value is even more in limbo until after the next few days. Williams and BJGE, not really surprising.