Chris Ivory (1 Viewer)

[Coeur de Lion]

Bump

thinking of trying to snag Ivory in some dyno's

Dare I say buy low?

His ADP over at DLF is 101. (RB41) I offered him to a few different owners this week for players in that area. Found no interest.If I were looking for positives, I'd say he had 34 total carries for the first 6 weeks of the season last year. Then he had 103 over the next 10 games. Over that 10 game span he had 4 games where he had 98+ yards rushing.

He definitely moved ahead of Bilal Powell over that stretch of the season. He did get nicked up week 17, and that probably cost him 15 carries.

Also, the Jets were pathetic on offense last year. I'm not saying they are going to turn into the Broncos in 2014, but I think they can at least be better. That would at least make the pie a little bit bigger to divide.

yeah was thinking of offerin a mid-2nd pick. people holding him still seem to want more than that.Shrug

I screwed up on the carries over the last 10 games, and have since edited it. He averaged 14.8 carries/game over that stretch. A modestly better offense, and a starting role from week 1 on could put him in line for 275 carries.

275 carries? Taking out week 4 which Ivory missed and week 17 where he left early it was still a pretty even split between Ivory and Powell 177 to 141 in carries. Obviously using touches instead of just carries slants it more towards Powell. The Jets had a true RBBC last year. And given his injury history, it's probably unwise to pencil Ivory in for 16 fully healthy games as a starter. And it's pretty unlikely that the Jets just stand pat at RB and leave Bilal Powell as Ivory's stiffest competitor for touches.Last year I thought Ivory was hugely over-rated, but could at least somewhat understand the "well he might stay healthy" and "NO doesn't feature a power style RB" optimism. Well, Ivory stayed healthy, and still split with a guy who really isn't good, and was still total FF garbage. I probably sound like a #### here, but I just genuinely don't understand the ongoing fascination / hype around a RB who is the definition of JAG for me.

The Jets are probably pretty likely to bring in a FA or draft a RB IMO. If you are a true believer in Ivory, I'd wait to try to buy him until immediately after that happens. Nothing is going to happen in the next few months to drive his value up.

I'm not sure I would go as far as saying it's "pretty likely" but it's certainly possible. Powell is a FA for one thing, so he may not be back and I'm guessing that Mike Goodson will not be back. It remains o be seen if they add a back that will supplant Ivory though.

As far as your ther post - Ivory looked pretty good down the stretch until he got hurt in Week 17. He's never going to be a ppr monster but his TD production could/should increase if the team adds some playmakers, which is an offseason priority.

The issue isn't necessarily with someone being brought in to totally supplant Ivory -- it's with any old JAG RB being able to come in and siphon off enough work to destroy any FF value for Ivory. I own Powell x3 in dynasty, but he's pretty clearly no great shakes as an NFL RB. Yet he was still good enough to force a 50 / 50 ish timeshare with a largely healthy Ivory last year. That makes it hugely unlikely, IMO, that Ivory as a player is ever going to be able to demand the percentage of touches necessary to be fantasy viable, considering he's one of the most one-dimensional RBs in the entire NFL.

It wasn't 50/50 after week 6 though. Ivory got the lion's share. 148 to 89 carries. And that includes the week 17 game where Ivory got knocked out and Powell had 21 carries to Ivory's 5. If the numbers from the previous 9 games would have held true it would have been more like 160 to 75.

It's two to one in carries taking the most favorable 9 game stretch for Ivory, sure. But it evens out a bit if you look at touches, even using those same nine weeks, and either way Ivory was still only RB32 over that span. So IF Ivory stays fully healthy, and IF the Jets don't bring in tougher competition, and IF the usage patterns stay the same as Ivory's best case nine game stretch, you have a mid to low end RB3 or a good RB4, depending on league size and setup. That still doesn't really seem like a great buy low to me, almost at any price. YMMV.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Bump

thinking of trying to snag Ivory in some dyno's

Dare I say buy low?

His ADP over at DLF is 101. (RB41) I offered him to a few different owners this week for players in that area. Found no interest.If I were looking for positives, I'd say he had 34 total carries for the first 6 weeks of the season last year. Then he had 103 over the next 10 games. Over that 10 game span he had 4 games where he had 98+ yards rushing.

He definitely moved ahead of Bilal Powell over that stretch of the season. He did get nicked up week 17, and that probably cost him 15 carries.

Also, the Jets were pathetic on offense last year. I'm not saying they are going to turn into the Broncos in 2014, but I think they can at least be better. That would at least make the pie a little bit bigger to divide.

yeah was thinking of offerin a mid-2nd pick. people holding him still seem to want more than that.Shrug

I screwed up on the carries over the last 10 games, and have since edited it. He averaged 14.8 carries/game over that stretch. A modestly better offense, and a starting role from week 1 on could put him in line for 275 carries.

275 carries? Taking out week 4 which Ivory missed and week 17 where he left early it was still a pretty even split between Ivory and Powell 177 to 141 in carries. Obviously using touches instead of just carries slants it more towards Powell. The Jets had a true RBBC last year. And given his injury history, it's probably unwise to pencil Ivory in for 16 fully healthy games as a starter. And it's pretty unlikely that the Jets just stand pat at RB and leave Bilal Powell as Ivory's stiffest competitor for touches.Last year I thought Ivory was hugely over-rated, but could at least somewhat understand the "well he might stay healthy" and "NO doesn't feature a power style RB" optimism. Well, Ivory stayed healthy, and still split with a guy who really isn't good, and was still total FF garbage. I probably sound like a #### here, but I just genuinely don't understand the ongoing fascination / hype around a RB who is the definition of JAG for me.

The Jets are probably pretty likely to bring in a FA or draft a RB IMO. If you are a true believer in Ivory, I'd wait to try to buy him until immediately after that happens. Nothing is going to happen in the next few months to drive his value up.

I'm not sure I would go as far as saying it's "pretty likely" but it's certainly possible. Powell is a FA for one thing, so he may not be back and I'm guessing that Mike Goodson will not be back. It remains o be seen if they add a back that will supplant Ivory though.

As far as your ther post - Ivory looked pretty good down the stretch until he got hurt in Week 17. He's never going to be a ppr monster but his TD production could/should increase if the team adds some playmakers, which is an offseason priority.

The issue isn't necessarily with someone being brought in to totally supplant Ivory -- it's with any old JAG RB being able to come in and siphon off enough work to destroy any FF value for Ivory. I own Powell x3 in dynasty, but he's pretty clearly no great shakes as an NFL RB. Yet he was still good enough to force a 50 / 50 ish timeshare with a largely healthy Ivory last year. That makes it hugely unlikely, IMO, that Ivory as a player is ever going to be able to demand the percentage of touches necessary to be fantasy viable, considering he's one of the most one-dimensional RBs in the entire NFL.

It wasn't 50/50 after week 6 though. Ivory got the lion's share. 148 to 89 carries. And that includes the week 17 game where Ivory got knocked out and Powell had 21 carries to Ivory's 5. If the numbers from the previous 9 games would have held true it would have been more like 160 to 75.

It's two to one in carries taking the most favorable 9 game stretch for Ivory, sure. But it evens out a bit if you look at touches, even using those same nine weeks, and either way Ivory was still only RB32 over that span. So IF Ivory stays fully healthy, and IF the Jets don't bring in tougher competition, and IF the usage patterns stay the same as Ivory's best case nine game stretch, you have a mid to low end RB3 or a good RB4, depending on league size and setup. That still doesn't really seem like a great buy low to me, almost at any price. YMMV.

What if he scores 3 more TDs during that 9 game stretch?

Also it's his "best case nine game stretch" because it was when he took over as the lead back in the RBBC, an improtant aspect that you keep ignoring.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The Jets are probably pretty likely to bring in a FA or draft a RB IMO. If you are a true believer in Ivory, I'd wait to try to buy him until immediately after that happens. Nothing is going to happen in the next few months to drive his value up.

I'm not sure I would go as far as saying it's "pretty likely" but it's certainly possible. Powell is a FA for one thing, so he may not be back and I'm guessing that Mike Goodson will not be back. It remains o be seen if they add a back that will supplant Ivory though.

As far as your ther post - Ivory looked pretty good down the stretch until he got hurt in Week 17. He's never going to be a ppr monster but his TD production could/should increase if the team adds some playmakers, which is an offseason priority.

The issue isn't necessarily with someone being brought in to totally supplant Ivory -- it's with any old JAG RB being able to come in and siphon off enough work to destroy any FF value for Ivory. I own Powell x3 in dynasty, but he's pretty clearly no great shakes as an NFL RB. Yet he was still good enough to force a 50 / 50 ish timeshare with a largely healthy Ivory last year. That makes it hugely unlikely, IMO, that Ivory as a player is ever going to be able to demand the percentage of touches necessary to be fantasy viable, considering he's one of the most one-dimensional RBs in the entire NFL.

That's misleading though. Ivory was injured during training camp/preseason so Powell "won" the starting RB position heading into the season - as Ivory healed up and gained the staff's confidence starting around Week 7 he was the back getting the lion's share of the carries. From Week 7 on he averaged 14 carries a game, which includes 5 carries in Week 17 where he left with injury (it also includes a 34 carry gae against the Saints).

Ivory has his warts. He's not going to catch a lot of passes and his violent running style will lead to him getting banged up, but he started looking like a potential lead back once he was given that role.

You sell Powell a little short as well. He's improved much since his rookie season and he was a Matt Waldman favorite during the draft process. He's not a great back and maybe he's a "JAG", as your so fond of saying - but he's a solid NFL runner and is kind of like a poor man's Pierre Thomas, in that he does everything well.

Ultimately you're probably right that Ivory will never be a great fantasy option, especially in ppr leagues. Adding some more TDs next season can make him useful though.

I'd love for Powell to be better, as I mentioned, I've got him in 3/5 leagues. But come on -- he's a fine guy to have as a jack of all trades backup for an NFL team, but he's FF crap. He's just flat out never going to be good enough to demand the touches needed to be FF relevant. He's competent in all three phases, but in no way is he above average with the football looking at NFL RBs as a whole.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The Jets are probably pretty likely to bring in a FA or draft a RB IMO. If you are a true believer in Ivory, I'd wait to try to buy him until immediately after that happens. Nothing is going to happen in the next few months to drive his value up.

I'm not sure I would go as far as saying it's "pretty likely" but it's certainly possible. Powell is a FA for one thing, so he may not be back and I'm guessing that Mike Goodson will not be back. It remains o be seen if they add a back that will supplant Ivory though.

As far as your ther post - Ivory looked pretty good down the stretch until he got hurt in Week 17. He's never going to be a ppr monster but his TD production could/should increase if the team adds some playmakers, which is an offseason priority.

The issue isn't necessarily with someone being brought in to totally supplant Ivory -- it's with any old JAG RB being able to come in and siphon off enough work to destroy any FF value for Ivory. I own Powell x3 in dynasty, but he's pretty clearly no great shakes as an NFL RB. Yet he was still good enough to force a 50 / 50 ish timeshare with a largely healthy Ivory last year. That makes it hugely unlikely, IMO, that Ivory as a player is ever going to be able to demand the percentage of touches necessary to be fantasy viable, considering he's one of the most one-dimensional RBs in the entire NFL.

That's misleading though. Ivory was injured during training camp/preseason so Powell "won" the starting RB position heading into the season - as Ivory healed up and gained the staff's confidence starting around Week 7 he was the back getting the lion's share of the carries. From Week 7 on he averaged 14 carries a game, which includes 5 carries in Week 17 where he left with injury (it also includes a 34 carry gae against the Saints).

Ivory has his warts. He's not going to catch a lot of passes and his violent running style will lead to him getting banged up, but he started looking like a potential lead back once he was given that role.

You sell Powell a little short as well. He's improved much since his rookie season and he was a Matt Waldman favorite during the draft process. He's not a great back and maybe he's a "JAG", as your so fond of saying - but he's a solid NFL runner and is kind of like a poor man's Pierre Thomas, in that he does everything well.

Ultimately you're probably right that Ivory will never be a great fantasy option, especially in ppr leagues. Adding some more TDs next season can make him useful though.

I'd love for Powell to be better, as I mentioned, I've got him in 3/5 leagues. But come on -- he's a fine guy to have as a jack of all trades backup for an NFL team, but he's FF crap. He's just flat out never going to be good enough to demand the touches needed to be FF relevant. He's competent in all three phases, but in no way is he above average with the football looking at NFL RBs as a whole.

I was talking about him as an NFL back. What did I say that made you think I was talking about fantasy?

It was merely in reference to Powell limiting Ivory's touches. It wasn't like Powell was out thre embarassing himself.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The Jets are probably pretty likely to bring in a FA or draft a RB IMO. If you are a true believer in Ivory, I'd wait to try to buy him until immediately after that happens. Nothing is going to happen in the next few months to drive his value up.

I'm not sure I would go as far as saying it's "pretty likely" but it's certainly possible. Powell is a FA for one thing, so he may not be back and I'm guessing that Mike Goodson will not be back. It remains o be seen if they add a back that will supplant Ivory though.

As far as your ther post - Ivory looked pretty good down the stretch until he got hurt in Week 17. He's never going to be a ppr monster but his TD production could/should increase if the team adds some playmakers, which is an offseason priority.

The issue isn't necessarily with someone being brought in to totally supplant Ivory -- it's with any old JAG RB being able to come in and siphon off enough work to destroy any FF value for Ivory. I own Powell x3 in dynasty, but he's pretty clearly no great shakes as an NFL RB. Yet he was still good enough to force a 50 / 50 ish timeshare with a largely healthy Ivory last year. That makes it hugely unlikely, IMO, that Ivory as a player is ever going to be able to demand the percentage of touches necessary to be fantasy viable, considering he's one of the most one-dimensional RBs in the entire NFL.

That's misleading though. Ivory was injured during training camp/preseason so Powell "won" the starting RB position heading into the season - as Ivory healed up and gained the staff's confidence starting around Week 7 he was the back getting the lion's share of the carries. From Week 7 on he averaged 14 carries a game, which includes 5 carries in Week 17 where he left with injury (it also includes a 34 carry gae against the Saints).

Ivory has his warts. He's not going to catch a lot of passes and his violent running style will lead to him getting banged up, but he started looking like a potential lead back once he was given that role.

You sell Powell a little short as well. He's improved much since his rookie season and he was a Matt Waldman favorite during the draft process. He's not a great back and maybe he's a "JAG", as your so fond of saying - but he's a solid NFL runner and is kind of like a poor man's Pierre Thomas, in that he does everything well.

Ultimately you're probably right that Ivory will never be a great fantasy option, especially in ppr leagues. Adding some more TDs next season can make him useful though.

I'd love for Powell to be better, as I mentioned, I've got him in 3/5 leagues. But come on -- he's a fine guy to have as a jack of all trades backup for an NFL team, but he's FF crap. He's just flat out never going to be good enough to demand the touches needed to be FF relevant. He's competent in all three phases, but in no way is he above average with the football looking at NFL RBs as a whole.

I was talking about him as an NFL back. What did I say that made you think I was talking about fantasy?

It was merely in reference to Powell limiting Ivory's touches. It wasn't like Powell was out thre embarassing himself.

No, he wasn't. But what does it say about Ivory when a guy like Powell actually gets more touches in the 15 games they shared the field last year? Ivory just isn't good enough to be featured in the NFL -- the proof is overwhelming at this point.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

The Jets are probably pretty likely to bring in a FA or draft a RB IMO. If you are a true believer in Ivory, I'd wait to try to buy him until immediately after that happens. Nothing is going to happen in the next few months to drive his value up.

I'm not sure I would go as far as saying it's "pretty likely" but it's certainly possible. Powell is a FA for one thing, so he may not be back and I'm guessing that Mike Goodson will not be back. It remains o be seen if they add a back that will supplant Ivory though.

As far as your ther post - Ivory looked pretty good down the stretch until he got hurt in Week 17. He's never going to be a ppr monster but his TD production could/should increase if the team adds some playmakers, which is an offseason priority.

The issue isn't necessarily with someone being brought in to totally supplant Ivory -- it's with any old JAG RB being able to come in and siphon off enough work to destroy any FF value for Ivory. I own Powell x3 in dynasty, but he's pretty clearly no great shakes as an NFL RB. Yet he was still good enough to force a 50 / 50 ish timeshare with a largely healthy Ivory last year. That makes it hugely unlikely, IMO, that Ivory as a player is ever going to be able to demand the percentage of touches necessary to be fantasy viable, considering he's one of the most one-dimensional RBs in the entire NFL.

That's misleading though. Ivory was injured during training camp/preseason so Powell "won" the starting RB position heading into the season - as Ivory healed up and gained the staff's confidence starting around Week 7 he was the back getting the lion's share of the carries. From Week 7 on he averaged 14 carries a game, which includes 5 carries in Week 17 where he left with injury (it also includes a 34 carry gae against the Saints).

Ivory has his warts. He's not going to catch a lot of passes and his violent running style will lead to him getting banged up, but he started looking like a potential lead back once he was given that role.

You sell Powell a little short as well. He's improved much since his rookie season and he was a Matt Waldman favorite during the draft process. He's not a great back and maybe he's a "JAG", as your so fond of saying - but he's a solid NFL runner and is kind of like a poor man's Pierre Thomas, in that he does everything well.

Ultimately you're probably right that Ivory will never be a great fantasy option, especially in ppr leagues. Adding some more TDs next season can make him useful though.

I'd love for Powell to be better, as I mentioned, I've got him in 3/5 leagues. But come on -- he's a fine guy to have as a jack of all trades backup for an NFL team, but he's FF crap. He's just flat out never going to be good enough to demand the touches needed to be FF relevant. He's competent in all three phases, but in no way is he above average with the football looking at NFL RBs as a whole.

I was talking about him as an NFL back. What did I say that made you think I was talking about fantasy?

It was merely in reference to Powell limiting Ivory's touches. It wasn't like Powell was out thre embarassing himself.

No, he wasn't. But what does it say about Ivory when a guy like Powell actually gets more touches in the 15 games they shared the field last year? Ivory just isn't good enough to be featured in the NFL -- the proof is overwhelming at this point.

Look, I'm not Ivory's biggest proponent either. But you keep ignoring the fact that he took over as the lead dog in this rushing attack after week 6. It obviously took some time with a new team/offense to get acclimated, but once he did, he was the leading rusher.

Now, there are legitimate questions about him staying healthy, the Jets offense etc. But I don't think it's unreasonable to think that if the Jets get better on offense next year, Ivory could easily put up RB2 numbers. At this point he's the favorite to dominate the carries in the backfield, and his ADP is RB41. The other RBs in that area are Bernard Pierce, Andre Brown, Marcus Lattimore, MJD, Ingram.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The Jets are probably pretty likely to bring in a FA or draft a RB IMO. If you are a true believer in Ivory, I'd wait to try to buy him until immediately after that happens. Nothing is going to happen in the next few months to drive his value up.

I'm not sure I would go as far as saying it's "pretty likely" but it's certainly possible. Powell is a FA for one thing, so he may not be back and I'm guessing that Mike Goodson will not be back. It remains o be seen if they add a back that will supplant Ivory though.

As far as your ther post - Ivory looked pretty good down the stretch until he got hurt in Week 17. He's never going to be a ppr monster but his TD production could/should increase if the team adds some playmakers, which is an offseason priority.

The issue isn't necessarily with someone being brought in to totally supplant Ivory -- it's with any old JAG RB being able to come in and siphon off enough work to destroy any FF value for Ivory. I own Powell x3 in dynasty, but he's pretty clearly no great shakes as an NFL RB. Yet he was still good enough to force a 50 / 50 ish timeshare with a largely healthy Ivory last year. That makes it hugely unlikely, IMO, that Ivory as a player is ever going to be able to demand the percentage of touches necessary to be fantasy viable, considering he's one of the most one-dimensional RBs in the entire NFL.

That's misleading though. Ivory was injured during training camp/preseason so Powell "won" the starting RB position heading into the season - as Ivory healed up and gained the staff's confidence starting around Week 7 he was the back getting the lion's share of the carries. From Week 7 on he averaged 14 carries a game, which includes 5 carries in Week 17 where he left with injury (it also includes a 34 carry gae against the Saints).

Ivory has his warts. He's not going to catch a lot of passes and his violent running style will lead to him getting banged up, but he started looking like a potential lead back once he was given that role.

You sell Powell a little short as well. He's improved much since his rookie season and he was a Matt Waldman favorite during the draft process. He's not a great back and maybe he's a "JAG", as your so fond of saying - but he's a solid NFL runner and is kind of like a poor man's Pierre Thomas, in that he does everything well.

Ultimately you're probably right that Ivory will never be a great fantasy option, especially in ppr leagues. Adding some more TDs next season can make him useful though.

I'd love for Powell to be better, as I mentioned, I've got him in 3/5 leagues. But come on -- he's a fine guy to have as a jack of all trades backup for an NFL team, but he's FF crap. He's just flat out never going to be good enough to demand the touches needed to be FF relevant. He's competent in all three phases, but in no way is he above average with the football looking at NFL RBs as a whole.

I was talking about him as an NFL back. What did I say that made you think I was talking about fantasy?

It was merely in reference to Powell limiting Ivory's touches. It wasn't like Powell was out thre embarassing himself.

No, he wasn't. But what does it say about Ivory when a guy like Powell actually gets more touches in the 15 games they shared the field last year? Ivory just isn't good enough to be featured in the NFL -- the proof is overwhelming at this point.

Not to beat a dead horse, but if you would just go back to my (and others) last few posts and read what happened over the course of the season, you'd get a better picture of the breakdown between Ivory and Powell and their roles in the backfield.

Powell is surely a better third down back than Ivory and next season, if Powell is back, that will be the case as well. However Ivory was clearly the featured runner over Powell once he was healthy and gained the staff's confidence after missing a large part of training camp.

We're clearly talking about a depth player (for fantasy purposes though). If Ivory is your RB2, you'd better have a great QB and WR unit.

 

[False Start]

In a vacuum it may look like Ivory is not that great of a back. Take into account he had a hammy issue and has great ability while having the backing of the team. The Jets have to many needs to worry about drafting a RB when they have two that work good together. They need a QB, WR, TE and OLine. RB is the least of their worries. PEople need to stop worrying about what happen last year or what have you done for me lately and look at potential and upside. He still has a huge upside but does have an injury history.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The Jets are probably pretty likely to bring in a FA or draft a RB IMO. If you are a true believer in Ivory, I'd wait to try to buy him until immediately after that happens. Nothing is going to happen in the next few months to drive his value up.

I'm not sure I would go as far as saying it's "pretty likely" but it's certainly possible. Powell is a FA for one thing, so he may not be back and I'm guessing that Mike Goodson will not be back. It remains o be seen if they add a back that will supplant Ivory though.

As far as your ther post - Ivory looked pretty good down the stretch until he got hurt in Week 17. He's never going to be a ppr monster but his TD production could/should increase if the team adds some playmakers, which is an offseason priority.

The issue isn't necessarily with someone being brought in to totally supplant Ivory -- it's with any old JAG RB being able to come in and siphon off enough work to destroy any FF value for Ivory. I own Powell x3 in dynasty, but he's pretty clearly no great shakes as an NFL RB. Yet he was still good enough to force a 50 / 50 ish timeshare with a largely healthy Ivory last year. That makes it hugely unlikely, IMO, that Ivory as a player is ever going to be able to demand the percentage of touches necessary to be fantasy viable, considering he's one of the most one-dimensional RBs in the entire NFL.

That's misleading though. Ivory was injured during training camp/preseason so Powell "won" the starting RB position heading into the season - as Ivory healed up and gained the staff's confidence starting around Week 7 he was the back getting the lion's share of the carries. From Week 7 on he averaged 14 carries a game, which includes 5 carries in Week 17 where he left with injury (it also includes a 34 carry gae against the Saints).

Ivory has his warts. He's not going to catch a lot of passes and his violent running style will lead to him getting banged up, but he started looking like a potential lead back once he was given that role.

You sell Powell a little short as well. He's improved much since his rookie season and he was a Matt Waldman favorite during the draft process. He's not a great back and maybe he's a "JAG", as your so fond of saying - but he's a solid NFL runner and is kind of like a poor man's Pierre Thomas, in that he does everything well.

Ultimately you're probably right that Ivory will never be a great fantasy option, especially in ppr leagues. Adding some more TDs next season can make him useful though.

I'd love for Powell to be better, as I mentioned, I've got him in 3/5 leagues. But come on -- he's a fine guy to have as a jack of all trades backup for an NFL team, but he's FF crap. He's just flat out never going to be good enough to demand the touches needed to be FF relevant. He's competent in all three phases, but in no way is he above average with the football looking at NFL RBs as a whole.

I was talking about him as an NFL back. What did I say that made you think I was talking about fantasy?

It was merely in reference to Powell limiting Ivory's touches. It wasn't like Powell was out thre embarassing himself.

No, he wasn't. But what does it say about Ivory when a guy like Powell actually gets more touches in the 15 games they shared the field last year? Ivory just isn't good enough to be featured in the NFL -- the proof is overwhelming at this point.

Not to beat a dead horse, but if you would just go back to my (and others) last few posts and read what happened over the course of the season, you'd get a better picture of the breakdown between Ivory and Powell and their roles in the backfield.

Powell is surely a better third down back than Ivory and next season, if Powell is back, that will be the case as well. However Ivory was clearly the featured runner over Powell once he was healthy and gained the staff's confidence after missing a large part of training camp.

We're clearly talking about a depth player (for fantasy purposes though). If Ivory is your RB2, you'd better have a great QB and WR unit.

Certainly agree that we're beating a dead horse at this point LOL. But again, IMO it says something about Ivory, and how the Jets coaching staff sees him, that Powell was used more early on, regardless of reason. If Ivory was the talent that quite a few people saw / see him as, that wouldn't have happened. Nor would Powell have out-carried him in two seperate games down the stretch. Ivory is, IMO, a better pure runner, but overall he and Powell are pretty comparable -- they'd both be role players / backups on teams with solid offensive talent in place. A random middle round rookie or mid tier FA is capable of coming in and getting enough touches to make them both utterly FF irrelevant IMO. In the landscape of NFL RBs as a whole, they're both unremarkable and easily replaceable. Banking on "the Jets just don't happen to have anyone better" continuing indefinitely is a sucker bet.

 

[Archer]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

 

[az_prof]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

 

[Terpman22]

No. 26 is not the age players start to lose a step. It's often the beginning of their prime. Not saying this is the start of Ivory's prime, but that statement is silly.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

 

[werdnoynek]

I like him but his style of play is concerning. Seems like he's a bruiser with a body that can't hold up to it.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Injury history http://www.kffl.com/player/23292/nfl/injury_history/chris-ivory

2013- Out 1 game, Probable 8 games

2012- Out 1 game, Questionable 1 game, Probable 1 game

2011- PUP 8 games, Questionable 1 game

2010- IR 4 games, Out 2 games, Questionable 2 games, Probable 7 games

 

[Terpman22]

Oh wow. After 12 pages, I didn't realize he had an injury history.

 

[JayJay328]

So over the past 40 games Ivory has missed a total of 2?That's not too bad at all.

 

[False Start]

Injury history http://www.kffl.com/player/23292/nfl/injury_history/chris-ivory

2013- Out 1 game, Probable 8 games

2012- Out 1 game, Questionable 1 game, Probable 1 game

2011- PUP 8 games, Questionable 1 game

2010- IR 4 games, Out 2 games, Questionable 2 games, Probable 7 games

Most of his issues this past season was not being the starter for most the season and trying to play through an injury. When he was recovered and starting he was doing as good as you could do with that bad offense.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

It's not about age or losing a step, it's about mediocre players being phased out for younger, cheaper mediocre players.

 

[az_prof]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

It's not about age or losing a step, it's about mediocre players being phased out for younger, cheaper mediocre players.

This. Great players don't lose a step at 26 but average players do get replaced at that age or near it.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

It's not about age or losing a step, it's about mediocre players being phased out for younger, cheaper mediocre players.

That's a different issue, and I wouldn't totally discount that happening to Ivory. The post I quoted specifically said that 26 was the age when RBs start losing a step, which is not accurate.

 

[False Start]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

It's not about age or losing a step, it's about mediocre players being phased out for younger, cheaper mediocre players.

That's a different issue, and I wouldn't totally discount that happening to Ivory. The post I quoted specifically said that 26 was the age when RBs start losing a step, which is not accurate.

Ivory is not talented now? He had a injury track record but he is not good? Sometimes people want to hate players because of stigmas, thats when you eat up value in drafts. Ivory is young and full of talent, let others dicount him, don't you be the one. I'll say it again, majority of people do not discount Harvin because of his injuries. Ivory is talented and he proved that too many times, to say with certainty that the Jets are going to replace him because fantasy owners are not happy with him is just crazy. He had a 4.57 ypc and had 833 rushing yards while playing on limited time as he played through an injury. Fantasy owners are never happy they expect 100 yards and a TD every game. Stop with this player is never healthy stuff, any player can get hurt, the most overrated contribution to not rating people talent accordingly. If David Wilson comes back and plays people will draft him higher than Ivory and why? He has done nothing in the NFL and has a major injury that worries me more then all of Ivorys injuries. He started last year and stunk. Hype, hype drives all value, let people not hype players like Ivory as I said, it is a good thing.

 

[Tool]

Injury history http://www.kffl.com/player/23292/nfl/injury_history/chris-ivory

2013- Out 1 game, Probable 8 games

2012- Out 1 game, Questionable 1 game, Probable 1 game

2011- PUP 8 games, Questionable 1 game

2010- IR 4 games, Out 2 games, Questionable 2 games, Probable 7 games

yeah but he's one of those guys who's always a little bit hurt so he seems to have a lot of games where he doesn't play the whole game or gets put in a time share of some kind. So you never really know when to play him. He'll end up having crappy games in your lineup and then go off when he's on your bench.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

It's not about age or losing a step, it's about mediocre players being phased out for younger, cheaper mediocre players.

That's a different issue, and I wouldn't totally discount that happening to Ivory. The post I quoted specifically said that 26 was the age when RBs start losing a step, which is not accurate.

Ivory is not talented now? He had a injury track record but he is not good? Sometimes people want to hate players because of stigmas, thats when you eat up value in drafts. Ivory is young and full of talent, let others dicount him, don't you be the one. I'll say it again, majority of people do not discount Harvin because of his injuries. Ivory is talented and he proved that too many times, to say with certainty that the Jets are going to replace him because fantasy owners are not happy with him is just crazy. He had a 4.57 ypc and had 833 rushing yards while playing on limited time as he played through an injury. Fantasy owners are never happy they expect 100 yards and a TD every game. Stop with this player is never healthy stuff, any player can get hurt, the most overrated contribution to not rating people talent accordingly. If David Wilson comes back and plays people will draft him higher than Ivory and why? He has done nothing in the NFL and has a major injury that worries me more then all of Ivorys injuries. He started last year and stunk. Hype, hype drives all value, let people not hype players like Ivory as I said, it is a good thing.

I think Ivory is a very solid NFL runner - he is actually much faster than people would think since he's he's seen as a bruiser. I'm willing however to entertain the possibility that the Jets add a FA like McFadden or Chris Johnson or draft a rookie that can cut into his playing time. I don't know that it will happen, but it's not out of the question.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

It's not about age or losing a step, it's about mediocre players being phased out for younger, cheaper mediocre players.

That's a different issue, and I wouldn't totally discount that happening to Ivory. The post I quoted specifically said that 26 was the age when RBs start losing a step, which is not accurate.

Ivory is not talented now? He had a injury track record but he is not good? Sometimes people want to hate players because of stigmas, thats when you eat up value in drafts. Ivory is young and full of talent, let others dicount him, don't you be the one. I'll say it again, majority of people do not discount Harvin because of his injuries. Ivory is talented and he proved that too many times, to say with certainty that the Jets are going to replace him because fantasy owners are not happy with him is just crazy. He had a 4.57 ypc and had 833 rushing yards while playing on limited time as he played through an injury. Fantasy owners are never happy they expect 100 yards and a TD every game. Stop with this player is never healthy stuff, any player can get hurt, the most overrated contribution to not rating people talent accordingly. If David Wilson comes back and plays people will draft him higher than Ivory and why? He has done nothing in the NFL and has a major injury that worries me more then all of Ivorys injuries. He started last year and stunk. Hype, hype drives all value, let people not hype players like Ivory as I said, it is a good thing.

While I disagree with you on Ivory's talent, that is a pretty subjective thing and it's also been argued to death over the past year and not really worth further discussion.

Up thread you suggested that Ivory might be a good RB2 -- and I'm curious as to how you're coming up with numbers to justify believing that. Even if Ivory stays healthy, and gets the 250+ carries he was pacing for over the 2nd half of last year, he's still going to fall well short of good RB2 territory unless he either starts catching significantly more passes or scoring significantly more TDs, both of which seem unlikely based on both Ivory himself and the Jets' offense.

A reasonable upside projection for Ivory might be 250 -- 1150 -- 8, 5 -- 40 -- 0, putting him between 10 and 11 PPG, which is nowhere close to good RB2 production in typical league setups. Those numbers would have made Ivory RB35 last year in PPG. Even bumping the carries up to 300 and the TDs up to 10 (same 4.6 YPC) only lifts him into the "crappy RB2" range in 12 team leagues -- and 300 carries and 10 TDs seems wildly optimistic to me given Ivory's injury history and the Jets' offense.

You can love Ivory's running talent all you want, but FF is about numbers, and yours just don't seem to add up here.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

It's not about age or losing a step, it's about mediocre players being phased out for younger, cheaper mediocre players.

That's a different issue, and I wouldn't totally discount that happening to Ivory. The post I quoted specifically said that 26 was the age when RBs start losing a step, which is not accurate.

Ivory is not talented now? He had a injury track record but he is not good? Sometimes people want to hate players because of stigmas, thats when you eat up value in drafts. Ivory is young and full of talent, let others dicount him, don't you be the one. I'll say it again, majority of people do not discount Harvin because of his injuries. Ivory is talented and he proved that too many times, to say with certainty that the Jets are going to replace him because fantasy owners are not happy with him is just crazy. He had a 4.57 ypc and had 833 rushing yards while playing on limited time as he played through an injury. Fantasy owners are never happy they expect 100 yards and a TD every game. Stop with this player is never healthy stuff, any player can get hurt, the most overrated contribution to not rating people talent accordingly. If David Wilson comes back and plays people will draft him higher than Ivory and why? He has done nothing in the NFL and has a major injury that worries me more then all of Ivorys injuries. He started last year and stunk. Hype, hype drives all value, let people not hype players like Ivory as I said, it is a good thing.

While I disagree with you on Ivory's talent, that is a pretty subjective thing and it's also been argued to death over the past year and not really worth further discussion.

Up thread you suggested that Ivory might be a good RB2 -- and I'm curious as to how you're coming up with numbers to justify believing that. Even if Ivory stays healthy, and gets the 250+ carries he was pacing for over the 2nd half of last year, he's still going to fall well short of good RB2 territory unless he either starts catching significantly more passes or scoring significantly more TDs, both of which seem unlikely based on both Ivory himself and the Jets' offense.

A reasonable upside projection for Ivory might be 250 -- 1150 -- 8, 5 -- 40 -- 0, putting him between 10 and 11 PPG, which is nowhere close to good RB2 production in typical league setups. Those numbers would have made Ivory RB35 last year in PPG. Even bumping the carries up to 300 and the TDs up to 10 (same 4.6 YPC) only lifts him into the "crappy RB2" range in 12 team leagues -- and 300 carries and 10 TDs seems wildly optimistic to me given Ivory's injury history and the Jets' offense.

You can love Ivory's running talent all you want, but FF is about numbers, and yours just don't seem to add up here.

I've been supporting Ivory in this thread, but I agree with this. Like I said upthread, Ivory is merely a depth player in fantasy. If you are counting on him as a RB2 you'd better have outstanding talent at QB, WR and even TE.

 

[False Start]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

It's not about age or losing a step, it's about mediocre players being phased out for younger, cheaper mediocre players.

That's a different issue, and I wouldn't totally discount that happening to Ivory. The post I quoted specifically said that 26 was the age when RBs start losing a step, which is not accurate.

Ivory is not talented now? He had a injury track record but he is not good? Sometimes people want to hate players because of stigmas, thats when you eat up value in drafts. Ivory is young and full of talent, let others dicount him, don't you be the one. I'll say it again, majority of people do not discount Harvin because of his injuries. Ivory is talented and he proved that too many times, to say with certainty that the Jets are going to replace him because fantasy owners are not happy with him is just crazy. He had a 4.57 ypc and had 833 rushing yards while playing on limited time as he played through an injury. Fantasy owners are never happy they expect 100 yards and a TD every game. Stop with this player is never healthy stuff, any player can get hurt, the most overrated contribution to not rating people talent accordingly. If David Wilson comes back and plays people will draft him higher than Ivory and why? He has done nothing in the NFL and has a major injury that worries me more then all of Ivorys injuries. He started last year and stunk. Hype, hype drives all value, let people not hype players like Ivory as I said, it is a good thing.

While I disagree with you on Ivory's talent, that is a pretty subjective thing and it's also been argued to death over the past year and not really worth further discussion.

Up thread you suggested that Ivory might be a good RB2 -- and I'm curious as to how you're coming up with numbers to justify believing that. Even if Ivory stays healthy, and gets the 250+ carries he was pacing for over the 2nd half of last year, he's still going to fall well short of good RB2 territory unless he either starts catching significantly more passes or scoring significantly more TDs, both of which seem unlikely based on both Ivory himself and the Jets' offense.

A reasonable upside projection for Ivory might be 250 -- 1150 -- 8, 5 -- 40 -- 0, putting him between 10 and 11 PPG, which is nowhere close to good RB2 production in typical league setups. Those numbers would have made Ivory RB35 last year in PPG. Even bumping the carries up to 300 and the TDs up to 10 (same 4.6 YPC) only lifts him into the "crappy RB2" range in 12 team leagues -- and 300 carries and 10 TDs seems wildly optimistic to me given Ivory's injury history and the Jets' offense.

You can love Ivory's running talent all you want, but FF is about numbers, and yours just don't seem to add up here.

Alfred Morris averaged 11 ppg last year, is he a RB2? I said he can produce RB2 numbers which is not impossible. He probably falls in line more of a RB3/4 to most but RB2 or RB 20-30 is not impossible. He finished 28th (11.3 ppg In my league) over Weeks 9-16 of last year on a really bad team with really no catches and few TDs. So my numbers do support the claim that RB2 is possible and if healthy I think he will be. His value coming into the season is the same as going into last year for me. Tons of upside given a healthy chance. I am all over guys like Ivory, Vereen, Ballard, S. Greene, McFadden, S. Jackson, Rice and Martin. All different levels of talent but all undervalued because of injury or doubt when the upside is high for all.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

It's not about age or losing a step, it's about mediocre players being phased out for younger, cheaper mediocre players.

That's a different issue, and I wouldn't totally discount that happening to Ivory. The post I quoted specifically said that 26 was the age when RBs start losing a step, which is not accurate.

Ivory is not talented now? He had a injury track record but he is not good? Sometimes people want to hate players because of stigmas, thats when you eat up value in drafts. Ivory is young and full of talent, let others dicount him, don't you be the one. I'll say it again, majority of people do not discount Harvin because of his injuries. Ivory is talented and he proved that too many times, to say with certainty that the Jets are going to replace him because fantasy owners are not happy with him is just crazy. He had a 4.57 ypc and had 833 rushing yards while playing on limited time as he played through an injury. Fantasy owners are never happy they expect 100 yards and a TD every game. Stop with this player is never healthy stuff, any player can get hurt, the most overrated contribution to not rating people talent accordingly. If David Wilson comes back and plays people will draft him higher than Ivory and why? He has done nothing in the NFL and has a major injury that worries me more then all of Ivorys injuries. He started last year and stunk. Hype, hype drives all value, let people not hype players like Ivory as I said, it is a good thing.

While I disagree with you on Ivory's talent, that is a pretty subjective thing and it's also been argued to death over the past year and not really worth further discussion.Up thread you suggested that Ivory might be a good RB2 -- and I'm curious as to how you're coming up with numbers to justify believing that. Even if Ivory stays healthy, and gets the 250+ carries he was pacing for over the 2nd half of last year, he's still going to fall well short of good RB2 territory unless he either starts catching significantly more passes or scoring significantly more TDs, both of which seem unlikely based on both Ivory himself and the Jets' offense.

A reasonable upside projection for Ivory might be 250 -- 1150 -- 8, 5 -- 40 -- 0, putting him between 10 and 11 PPG, which is nowhere close to good RB2 production in typical league setups. Those numbers would have made Ivory RB35 last year in PPG. Even bumping the carries up to 300 and the TDs up to 10 (same 4.6 YPC) only lifts him into the "crappy RB2" range in 12 team leagues -- and 300 carries and 10 TDs seems wildly optimistic to me given Ivory's injury history and the Jets' offense.

You can love Ivory's running talent all you want, but FF is about numbers, and yours just don't seem to add up here.

Alfred Morris averaged 11 ppg last year, is he a RB2? I said he can produce RB2 numbers which is not impossible. He probably falls in line more of a RB3/4 to most but RB2 or RB 20-30 is not impossible. He finished 28th (11.3 ppg In my league) over Weeks 9-16 of last year on a really bad team with really no catches and few TDs. So my numbers do support the claim that RB2 is possible and if healthy I think he will be. His value coming into the season is the same as going into last year for me. Tons of upside given a healthy chance. I am all over guys like Ivory, Vereen, Ballard, S. Greene, McFadden, S. Jackson, Rice and Martin. All different levels of talent but all undervalued because of injury or doubt when the upside is high for all.

Go ahead and give me a stat line that gets him to RB20 -- it might be remotely possible if he suddenly starts catching a ton more passes, but that seems like a HUGE stretch for a dude who has 5 career catches in 4 years.

And RB2 range is typically RB13 - RB24. If you're talking about a 16 team league with 2 mandatory RB starters, then yeah, in a best case scenario Ivory might be a passable RB2 -- but the demand for any RB with a pulse in that format means you're still going to be paying at his upside.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I would argue the baseline for RB2 production is actually a bit lower. The best 24 RBs are not started every week. 11 ppg would be below average, but above the baseline of RB2s actually played. I looked at some of my leagues last year and the average 24th best RB started is about 7 ppg. Marginally better if you only look at playoff teams (9 ppg) but still less than Ivory's 2nd half projection. Ivory has value as a hole plugger. If you devalue RB he's a good guy to target based on price and opportunity. However if you have great RB, then yeah he's low value depth you probably want to cash out on before the NYJ draft someone else.

 

[az_prof]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

It's not about age or losing a step, it's about mediocre players being phased out for younger, cheaper mediocre players.

That's a different issue, and I wouldn't totally discount that happening to Ivory. The post I quoted specifically said that 26 was the age when RBs start losing a step, which is not accurate.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/articles/des.htm

"What this says is that running backs tend to peak at age 25, with a sort of plateau from about age 23 to age 26. Following that is a fairly gentle decline until about age 28, after which the decline becomes steeper."

I didn't say that RBs suck at age 26. I said that is when they start to lose a step. They fall off the plateau. Now, guys who have been superstars like Adrian Peterson often follow a different trajectory. Guys who are mediocre and oft injured, decline faster.

The point is that Ivory is approaching the age when age begins to affect performance, sometimes more and sometimes less.

He also has a long history of injury issues and has never had a superstar season.

So, does it seem likely that a team would bet the bank on him or does it seem more likely they would bring in competition?

 

[False Start]

I would argue the baseline for RB2 production is actually a bit lower. The best 24 RBs are not started every week. 11 ppg would be below average, but above the baseline of RB2s actually played. I looked at some of my leagues last year and the average 24th best RB started is about 7 ppg. Marginally better if you only look at playoff teams (9 ppg) but still less than Ivory's 2nd half projection. Ivory has value as a hole plugger. If you devalue RB he's a good guy to target based on price and opportunity. However if you have great RB, then yeah he's low value depth you probably want to cash out on before the NYJ draft someone else.

That is my thinking as well and why I say RB 20-30 range as RB 2. One guys RB 2 is another guys RB 3 because of depth.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I would argue the baseline for RB2 production is actually a bit lower. The best 24 RBs are not started every week. 11 ppg would be below average, but above the baseline of RB2s actually played. I looked at some of my leagues last year and the average 24th best RB started is about 7 ppg. Marginally better if you only look at playoff teams (9 ppg) but still less than Ivory's 2nd half projection. Ivory has value as a hole plugger. If you devalue RB he's a good guy to target based on price and opportunity. However if you have great RB, then yeah he's low value depth you probably want to cash out on before the NYJ draft someone else.

There's validity to that point, but Ivory is still probably going to be over drafted based on what you can reasonably expect him to produce. If you could draft him as a pure backup, then yeah, have at it. But I'm sceptical that he'll be available in any format as cheaper than a flex guy / upside down draft starter. As it stands, I'd rather wait and grab pure backup types that have some upside d/t injury -- Ivory's RB30 upside is basically a punt in round 7ish (12 teams).

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think he was hurt almost all year. As the Jets offense slowly improves, I think he will look better and better. Great buy low.

I would be surprised if the Jets don't bring in someone to compete. Let's not forget that Ivory will turn 26 in March. That's not ancient but it is the age when RBs start to lose a step, and a guy who has been injury prone his whole career stands to age poorly.

26 is when RBs lose a step now? I can see saying that power backs that run violently would have shorter shelf lives, but the ever devolving mindset of when a RB is "old" is going to have us trading RBs before their second season in the league.

Owners who start the "age discount" at 25 (Ivory's age) = dead money.

It's not about age or losing a step, it's about mediocre players being phased out for younger, cheaper mediocre players.

That's a different issue, and I wouldn't totally discount that happening to Ivory. The post I quoted specifically said that 26 was the age when RBs start losing a step, which is not accurate.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/articles/des.htm

"What this says is that running backs tend to peak at age 25, with a sort of plateau from about age 23 to age 26. Following that is a fairly gentle decline until about age 28, after which the decline becomes steeper."

I didn't say that RBs suck at age 26. I said that is when they start to lose a step. They fall off the plateau. Now, guys who have been superstars like Adrian Peterson often follow a different trajectory. Guys who are mediocre and oft injured, decline faster.

The point is that Ivory is approaching the age when age begins to affect performance, sometimes more and sometimes less.

He also has a long history of injury issues and has never had a superstar season.

So, does it seem likely that a team would bet the bank on him or does it seem more likely they would bring in competition?

You're moving the goal-posts away from your original statement (i.e. RBs lose a step at age 26) and I've already responded to others on your modified position - but once again, yes, there is certainly a possibility that the Jets bring in competition through free agency or the draft. I would not argue otherwise.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I would argue the baseline for RB2 production is actually a bit lower. The best 24 RBs are not started every week. 11 ppg would be below average, but above the baseline of RB2s actually played. I looked at some of my leagues last year and the average 24th best RB started is about 7 ppg. Marginally better if you only look at playoff teams (9 ppg) but still less than Ivory's 2nd half projection. Ivory has value as a hole plugger. If you devalue RB he's a good guy to target based on price and opportunity. However if you have great RB, then yeah he's low value depth you probably want to cash out on before the NYJ draft someone else.

There's validity to that point, but Ivory is still probably going to be over drafted based on what you can reasonably expect him to produce. If you could draft him as a pure backup, then yeah, have at it. But I'm sceptical that he'll be available in any format as cheaper than a flex guy / upside down draft starter. As it stands, I'd rather wait and grab pure backup types that have some upside d/t injury -- Ivory's RB30 upside is basically a punt in round 7ish (12 teams).

Yeah, redraft vs. dynasty changes that dynamic. In dynasty his ADP is the 9th or 10th, and I think the price to acquire is a little less than that. There's mediocre low-upside WR and TE you could swap for him to fill a hole. Granted there's guys with similar/lower price I like more.

 

[Faust]

Twitter:

Mike Clay ‏@MikeClayNFL

Chris Ivory's rush OTD has been significantly lower than where it should be the last 4 years. Not getting many scoring opps.

 

[DropKick]

In a vacuum it may look like Ivory is not that great of a back. Take into account he had a hammy issue and has great ability while having the backing of the team. The Jets have to many needs to worry about drafting a RB when they have two that work good together. They need a QB, WR, TE and OLine. RB is the least of their worries. PEople need to stop worrying about what happen last year or what have you done for me lately and look at potential and upside. He still has a huge upside but does have a huge injury history.

Fixed.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Chris Ivory - RB - Jets
Chris Ivory sat out team drills Thursday with a "little bit" of a hamstring injury.
We don't normally post minor training camp injuries, but it's notable whenever Ivory's troublesome hamstring flares up. It's just a reminder that even if Ivory runs circles around Chris Johnson in camp, he's untrustworthy as anything more than an RB3/4 for fantasy purposes.


Source: Rich Cimini on Twitter
Jul 24 - 1:28 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Speaking Tuesday, Jets coach Rex Ryan said Chris Ivory could get more playing time going forward.

"Maybe Chris Ivory will get more time," were Ryan's exact words. "He's running hard. ... There's not a whole lot of guys who want to tackle him." Ivory has run circles around Chris Johnson the past two weeks, but only out-touched him 28-23. CJ?K has out-snapped Ivory 54-52 since Week 2. For the season, Ivory is averaging a robust 5.7 yards per carry compared to just 3.5 for his more famous teammate. Ivory, who's never been known for his hands, has even out-caught Johnson 5-1 over the past two games. The Jets seem to be seeing what everyone else is seeing: Ivory is their best back, and it's not close. Ivory is an upside RB2/FLEX, with Johnson shaping up as a middling RB3.

Related: Chris Johnson

Source: Manish Mehta on Twitter

Sep 23 - 4:58 PM

 

[SameSongNDance]

If Ivory could ever hold up on 20 touches a game he'd be a no-brainer RB1 IMO but Rex has to be super careful with him. I think it will always be best to limit his touches just so he can play for the majority of the season.

 

[Faust]

Chris Ivory to replace Chris Johnson as Jets' lead back?

 

[prgromek]

this guy looks good

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Ivory runs with some anger, seeking contact -- a lesser talented Lynch in a way, but the kind of back I love to watch. He has been the only dependable FF play form the Jets this year, and I think will continue to be.

 

[Insein]

Finally benched him. Sigh.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Finally benched him. Sigh.

Same here. But he is on my opponents bench in another league

 

[DocHolliday]

Ivory runs with some anger, seeking contact -- a lesser talented Lynch in a way, but the kind of back I love to watch. He has been the only dependable FF play form the Jets this year, and I think will continue to be.

I have always liked his frantic running style but he left some yards on the field. He sometimes seems to lack vision. On a few runs, he could have made one more cut past the LOS and gained more yards easily.

 

[Yenrub]

Did he get hurt last night?

 

[Insein]

Did he get hurt last night?

No

 

[avina1]

had him on my bench in FFPC unfortunately. I was going back and forth between him and Rueben Randle but in a PPR, I went with Randle. Looks like a mistake. :\

 

[need2know]

Have had him on the bench most of the season. Good game last night but the jets crappy offense makes him hard to trust. Gonna try to trade him to somebody