Chris Ivory (2 Viewers)

[Team Smokin']

I'm liking Ivory this week for FanDuel / DraftKings. Good value. Shhhh... but he could be just average too?

 

[rockaction]

Expectations for this guy this year? 1,100 rushing out of the question?

Not at all. He had 944 total yards last year. 821 rushing on 198 attempts which represented only 39% of all the Jets rush attempts and 50% of all attempts by Jets RBs (taking out QB/WR attempts).

I just did some research into Chan Gailey because we can't expect Ivory to be in the same offensive philosophy as last season. Here is what he has done with his running game during his tenure as an OC and HC.

Year Team Total Team RB ATT Lead Back (carries-receptions) Rush-Rec TDs % of RB Carries

1989 Den 486 B.Humphrey (294-22) 7-1 60%
1990 Den 398 B.Humphrey (288-24) 7-0 72%
1996 Pit 454 Bettis (320-22) 11-0 70%
1997 Pit 467 Bettis (375-15) 7-2 80%
1998 Dal 450 Emmitt (319-27) 13-2 71%
1999 Dal 450 Emmitt (329-27) 11-2 73%
2000 Mia 433 Lamar Smith (309-31) 14-2 71%
2001 Mia 382 Lamar Smith (313-30) 6-2 82%
2008 KC 311 L.Johnson (193-12) 5-0
2010 Buf 347 F.Jax (222-31) 5-2 64%
2011 Buf 313 F.Jax (170-39) 6-0 54%
2012 Buf 378 Spiller (207-43) 6-2 55%

I highlighted Lamar Smith & Bobby Humphrey because I believe these to be the best comps for Ivory in regards to talent and situation. For talent I like Ivory but he isn't Bettis, Emmitt or Larry Johnson. And, at least right now, the Jets simply do not have a F.Jax/Spiller talent situation, it is clearly Ivory's show until he either breaks down or Ridley comes in and demonstrates that he is a legitimate threat to Ivory's touches and that won't be until week 8 (IIRC).

So it looks like Gailey will give his lead back around 70% of the total carries (maybe more if that RB is rolling) and put him in position to catch around 30 passes. As much as all the Ivory owners would like to see a repeat of Lamar Smith's 2000 campaign I think a more realistic estimate of Ivory's TD production is O/U 7. So now the question becomes "How many RB rushing plays will the Jets be in position to call this year?"

They are not a very good team on paper (at least most people seem to think that) so if you look at the low end we are talking maybe 310 carries which puts Ivory in line for about 217 carries, at last season's YPC of 4.1 that gives him 890 rush yards. I would put that as his floor for rushing yards. Throw in about 25 catches and he should at least match what he did last season.

If you think they can manage 350 or 400 rushes this year (they managed 390 last year) then Ivory's ceiling is actually pretty tempting with maybe 1,150 rush yards using the conservative 4.1 YPC from last year which was his career low YPC (still 25 receptions IMO) and maybe he hits the over on TDs.

Not bad for where you likely drafted him.

I agree with your basic point, but it's weird because Football Outsiders's preseason playoff odds have them at 40% to make the playoffs and 13th in the league in their "mean wins" simulation. I think with a stable quarterbacking situation, they're a lot better than one would think. But I'm a NY homer in football.

Ivory was fantastic last year when he was in the games, and that's with stacked boxes and no WR weapons (Decker was hurt) and very unsteady QB play. The question isn't talent, it's health.

 

[matttyl]

Not that last year's stats mean much with opposing defenses, but he does play Cleveland, the Jags, the Giants, and the Titans all at home this year (well, the Giants game is technically away, but it's New York none the less). Each of those games are prior to the normal fantasy playoff weeks.

 

[Chaka]

I agree with your basic point, but it's weird because Football Outsiders's preseason playoff odds have them at 40% to make the playoffs and 13th in the league in their "mean wins" simulation. I think with a stable quarterbacking situation, they're a lot better than one would think. But I'm a NY homer in football.

Ivory was fantastic last year when he was in the games, and that's with stacked boxes and no WR weapons (Decker was hurt) and very unsteady QB play. The question isn't talent, it's health.

I personally think people are sleeping on the Jets a little bit. They actually have competent weapons across the board. Marshall may not be an elite #1 but he's still going to draw attention and Decker as a #2 is a nice luxury but Jeremy Kerly is nothing special and Devin Smith is hurt (limited in practice today) so the #3 WR situation is weak. The loss of Jace Amaro for the season also hurts, they simply have no one to replace him. Ivory is a solid RB with legitimate upside and Stacy is a solid backup (without as much upside) and Powell is a legitimate threat out of the backfield. The line is probably middle of the pack but both Carpenter (who has an injury history as long as my arm) and Colon were limited in practice today. The line depth is a serious question mark too.

The big question mark is what does Fitz have left in the tank. In the short term I think he is an upgrade over Geno and if he can recapture whatever it was he had with Gailey up in Buffalo then I think this team is much better than people realize and I would have no problem penciling them in for the playoffs. But more realistically I think they are a middle of the pack that if things break well may be fighting for win 9-10 by week 17.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I want to subscribe to the idea that were never really working with a large enough sample size to accurately dub a player "injury prone" but I just can't shake it with Ivory. I bit this year because I believe in him and his supporting cast.. I'd just really appreciate it if his bones, ligaments and etc. could get on board as well.

 

[Team Smokin']

Ivory, dare I say, a RB #1?

Long term projections for this year now?

 

[ahartig]

Ivory, dare I say, a RB #1?

Long term projections for this year now?

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. Also thinking about doubling down and adding Bilal to my bench just in case as Ivory has an injury history. Although it looks like he has shed some weight this year, he looks faster and more elusive than I remember.

Chan Gailey for the win.

 

[Swing 51]

Ivory, dare I say, a RB #1?

Long term projections for this year now?

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. Also thinking about doubling down and adding Bilal to my bench just in case as Ivory has an injury history. Although it looks like he has shed some weight this year, he looks faster and more elusive than I remember.

Chan Gailey for the win.

Just traded for Powell to backstop Ivory. Now on MNF the Jets will be down early and go in to passing mode which will take Ivory off the field

 

[SameSongNDance]

Ivory, dare I say, a RB #1?

Long term projections for this year now?

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. Also thinking about doubling down and adding Bilal to my bench just in case as Ivory has an injury history. Although it looks like he has shed some weight this year, he looks faster and more elusive than I remember.

Chan Gailey for the win.

Just traded for Powell to backstop Ivory. Now on MNF the Jets will be down early and go in to passing mode which will take Ivory off the field

The snap % split between Ivory and Powell vs. CLE was 52/48 in Ivory's favor. On the surface it's slightly alarming because it opens up game script becoming a large dictator of opportunity. Still, when you look back at it, Ivory accumulated 21 touches and I think it was actually smart to not use him to grind down CLE to the tune of 30 touches. The Jets know their offense begins with Ivory and keeping him fresh as the season progresses, especially given his injury history seems like the right move to me.

 

[FF Ninja]

Ivory, dare I say, a RB #1?

Long term projections for this year now?

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. Also thinking about doubling down and adding Bilal to my bench just in case as Ivory has an injury history. Although it looks like he has shed some weight this year, he looks faster and more elusive than I remember.

Chan Gailey for the win.

Just traded for Powell to backstop Ivory. Now on MNF the Jets will be down early and go in to passing mode which will take Ivory off the field

The snap % split between Ivory and Powell vs. CLE was 52/48 in Ivory's favor. On the surface it's slightly alarming because it opens up game script becoming a large dictator of opportunity. Still, when you look back at it, Ivory accumulated 21 touches and I think it was actually smart to not use him to grind down CLE to the tune of 30 touches. The Jets know their offense begins with Ivory and keeping him fresh as the season progresses, especially given his injury history seems like the right move to me.

As I pointed out in the snap count thread, that split is misleading. Ivory's last touch in the game was with 9 minutes left. Powell appears to have gotten every snap after the 9 minute mark because he had 7 touches starting with 8:28 left in the game. Prior to that, I don't have the snap count, but Ivory had 21 touches/targets to Powell's 9, so Ivory was getting 70% of the work before he retired for the day.

I do think Ivory is set for a potential top 12 finish, but find the Jets' lack of passes to the RBs to be a potential shortcoming. When Ivory left the game he had 1 target and Powell had 3. They simply were not involving the RBs in the passing game. Hopefully that changes next week.

 

[Dizzy]

Ivory, dare I say, a RB #1?

Long term projections for this year now?

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. Also thinking about doubling down and adding Bilal to my bench just in case as Ivory has an injury history. Although it looks like he has shed some weight this year, he looks faster and more elusive than I remember.

Chan Gailey for the win.

Just traded for Powell to backstop Ivory. Now on MNF the Jets will be down early and go in to passing mode which will take Ivory off the field

Wow, I was thinking the Colts are staring 0-2 right in the face. They couldn't stop Buffalo to save their lives last week. Should be another good game for Ivory.

 

[Swing 51]

^^ I'm starting Ivory and I'm sure the Jets would like to keep Indy off the field with ball control but I'm expecting that Indy offense to wake up this week.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Ivory, dare I say, a RB #1?

Long term projections for this year now?

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. Also thinking about doubling down and adding Bilal to my bench just in case as Ivory has an injury history. Although it looks like he has shed some weight this year, he looks faster and more elusive than I remember.

Chan Gailey for the win.

Just traded for Powell to backstop Ivory. Now on MNF the Jets will be down early and go in to passing mode which will take Ivory off the field

The snap % split between Ivory and Powell vs. CLE was 52/48 in Ivory's favor. On the surface it's slightly alarming because it opens up game script becoming a large dictator of opportunity. Still, when you look back at it, Ivory accumulated 21 touches and I think it was actually smart to not use him to grind down CLE to the tune of 30 touches. The Jets know their offense begins with Ivory and keeping him fresh as the season progresses, especially given his injury history seems like the right move to me.

As I pointed out in the snap count thread, that split is misleading. Ivory's last touch in the game was with 9 minutes left. Powell appears to have gotten every snap after the 9 minute mark because he had 7 touches starting with 8:28 left in the game. Prior to that, I don't have the snap count, but Ivory had 21 touches/targets to Powell's 9, so Ivory was getting 70% of the work before he retired for the day.

I do think Ivory is set for a potential top 12 finish, but find the Jets' lack of passes to the RBs to be a potential shortcoming. When Ivory left the game he had 1 target and Powell had 3. They simply were not involving the RBs in the passing game. Hopefully that changes next week.

I agree which is why I said on the surface it may seem alarming but the touch totals tell the full story.

I think we'll see the RBs get a little more involved in the passing game moving forward. Didn't Gailey use FJax/Spiller a ton while in BUF? I think week 1's pass game utilization again came down to game script, we honestly just need more data to work with.

 

[Phenomena]

^^ I'm starting Ivory and I'm sure the Jets would like to keep Indy off the field with ball control but I'm expecting that Indy offense to wake up this week.

Even if the offense wakes up, does that mean Ivory is a bad play? I can imagine the Jets still running Ivory as normal even if they're down 7-10 points, to both keep Luck off the field and grind out against a terrible run defense.

Plus, do you really see Luck putting up big numbers against Revis AND without their best receiver? I don't.

I think he's a great play this week in any format. I expect 90+ yards and a great chance at a touchdown (or two).

 

[FF Ninja]

Ivory, dare I say, a RB #1?

Long term projections for this year now?

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. Also thinking about doubling down and adding Bilal to my bench just in case as Ivory has an injury history. Although it looks like he has shed some weight this year, he looks faster and more elusive than I remember.

Chan Gailey for the win.

Just traded for Powell to backstop Ivory. Now on MNF the Jets will be down early and go in to passing mode which will take Ivory off the field

The snap % split between Ivory and Powell vs. CLE was 52/48 in Ivory's favor. On the surface it's slightly alarming because it opens up game script becoming a large dictator of opportunity. Still, when you look back at it, Ivory accumulated 21 touches and I think it was actually smart to not use him to grind down CLE to the tune of 30 touches. The Jets know their offense begins with Ivory and keeping him fresh as the season progresses, especially given his injury history seems like the right move to me.

As I pointed out in the snap count thread, that split is misleading. Ivory's last touch in the game was with 9 minutes left. Powell appears to have gotten every snap after the 9 minute mark because he had 7 touches starting with 8:28 left in the game. Prior to that, I don't have the snap count, but Ivory had 21 touches/targets to Powell's 9, so Ivory was getting 70% of the work before he retired for the day.

I do think Ivory is set for a potential top 12 finish, but find the Jets' lack of passes to the RBs to be a potential shortcoming. When Ivory left the game he had 1 target and Powell had 3. They simply were not involving the RBs in the passing game. Hopefully that changes next week.

I agree which is why I said on the surface it may seem alarming but the touch totals tell the full story.

I think we'll see the RBs get a little more involved in the passing game moving forward. Didn't Gailey use FJax/Spiller a ton while in BUF? I think week 1's pass game utilization again came down to game script, we honestly just need more data to work with.

He wasn't crazy high with RB targets like Sean Payton, but... well, how long was he there? 2010-2012? RB targets were 99-123-110. So I guess he was a hint above the NFL average. Last year the median RB targets was 105.

 

[chad in Indy]

Ivory, dare I say, a RB #1?

Long term projections for this year now?

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. Also thinking about doubling down and adding Bilal to my bench just in case as Ivory has an injury history. Although it looks like he has shed some weight this year, he looks faster and more elusive than I remember.

Chan Gailey for the win.

Just traded for Powell to backstop Ivory. Now on MNF the Jets will be down early and go in to passing mode which will take Ivory off the field

Wow, I was thinking the Colts are staring 0-2 right in the face. They couldn't stop Buffalo to save their lives last week. Should be another good game for Ivory.

The stat line is misleading. The Colts played a decent game against the run. McCoy was bottled up almost the whole game, and they only gave up one big run to Williams. Now, historically, I would bet against the run defense of the Colts, but it was not their downfall week 1. Part of it was not being able to contain Taylor. Fitzpatrick does not present such a dual threat. Horrible offense and a muffed punt also left Buffalo with excellent field position. Not saying Ivory is a bad play, but I don't think it means the Colts are staring at 0-2.

 

[Chaka]

I think if you own him he is a must start. When Ridley gets back you can reevaluate but for now why in the world wouldn't you put one of the few backs in line for 20 touches out there every week?

It doesn't matter who the opponent is, don't overthink it.

 

[Swing 51]

Posted By Rotowire Staff

Jets running back Chris Ivory (groin) was limited at Thursday's practice, Manish Mehta of the Daily News reports.Both Mehta and ESPN's Rich Cimini suggests that Ivory is expected to play Monday against the Colts, but for now the running back's Week 2 status now bears monitoring.

 

[Chaka]

Posted By Rotowire Staff

Jets running back Chris Ivory (groin) was limited at Thursday's practice, Manish Mehta of the Daily News reports.Both Mehta and ESPN's Rich Cimini suggests that Ivory is expected to play Monday against the Colts, but for now the running back's Week 2 status now bears monitoring.

Meh. He was probable last week, I think it is too early for concern.

 

[SameSongNDance]

He tweaked his groin in practice but the coaches don't seem worried about his status for MNF. I'm not sure what his tag will be.

 

[ourmanflint]

It's actually concerning how many practice injuries have occurred this week.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Breakdown of Ivory vs. CLE with gifs. A little late but very interesting.

Also, given Ivory's injury history I don't feel comfortable going into Monday night without Powell on my bench. Seeing as how Powell saw 48% of the snaps, did very well on his touches and in pass pro. and I don't think Bowles/Gailey have any problem leaning on him in the event Ivory can't go.

 

[Chaka]

While I still think that the Jets are just being cautious with Ivory and he is in line for a big workload again, the questionable designation is definitely disappointing and people probably should keep their options open. We all have different roster requirements but in my case I just benched Steve Smith for Dion Lewis so I can start Andre Johnson on Monday if Ivory has a setback during warm ups. YMMV.

 

[C-Bound]

Not digging this. I won't have an option Monday night so if things don't look peachy by tonight I'm rolling with James Jones instead.

 

[skinny post]

Owning Chris Ivory and having him on your bench when he has a big game is such a feeling of regret because he gets injured so much...one game closer to being out. One league I have Powell so I will ride with Ivory for now but other league leaning somewhere else without a Monday alternative....

 

[Billy Bats]

Just heard he's a game time decision on ESPN. Wtf??? What are you guys doing with no options tomorrow night?

 

[Ghost Rider]

Just heard he's a game time decision on ESPN. Wtf??? What are you guys doing with no options tomorrow night?

I have options;

In the league where I have Ivory, I am starting Sproles at RB, and going with Decker over Vincent Jackson as my 3rd flex (we start 1 RB, 2 WRs, 1 TE and 3 flex), so I can always start Ivory over Decker tomorrow night if he plays.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I picked up Powell and will start him if Ivory can't go.

ETA: Powell because it's PPR.

 

[rockaction]

I am going to pop in and say that if Ivory can't go or gets hurt, Stacy was actually the lead dog in the preseason. Last week might have been situational with Powell.

I would not assume Powell is the early-down back here.

That sucks, but it's what you deal with as somebody who owns shares of the Jets' running game.

eta* With Ivory's groin, Stacy will almost certainly be active. I'd bet all three are. The worst situation: Ivory goes and can't finish while the other two split carries.

 

[TartanLion]

Picked up Moncrief on the WW this week. If it comes to the worst I'll have to drop him back out Monday night for Powell who sitting there as a FA. Not ideal but better than the options some of you will have. Alternatively could push Ivory to flex and start Karlos Williams but that feels dangerous to me.

If your using him in a flex, perhaps Dorsett is sitting there untaken ?

 

[Ghost Rider]

I am going to pop in and say that if Ivory can't go or gets hurt, Stacy was actually the lead dog in the preseason. Last week might have been situational with Powell.

I would not assume Powell is the early-down back here.

That sucks, but it's what you deal with as somebody who owns shares of the Jets' running game.

eta* With Ivory's groin, Stacy will almost certainly be active. I'd bet all three are. The worst situation: Ivory goes and can't finish while the other two split carries.

Stacy was inactive last week.

 

[rockaction]

I am going to pop in and say that if Ivory can't go or gets hurt, Stacy was actually the lead dog in the preseason. Last week might have been situational with Powell.

I would not assume Powell is the early-down back here.

That sucks, but it's what you deal with as somebody who owns shares of the Jets' running game.

eta* With Ivory's groin, Stacy will almost certainly be active. I'd bet all three are. The worst situation: Ivory goes and can't finish while the other two split carries.

Stacy was inactive last week.

Yes, I know.

Powell was the third-down back and then came in for mop-up duty when the blowout started.

Stacy was the second back on the depth chart and the early-down back behind Ivory in the preseason. Powell has always been the Jets' third down back.

Stacy will be active this week, barring a miracle.

eta* This is not to say Stacy will be the lead back if Ivory goes down. It's simply a possibility that the Jets view Stacy as an early-down back in the event of an Ivory injury and Powell as the third-down guy. But Powell looked really good and ran hard and hit holes last week, so anybody's worries may vary.

 

[Baloney Sandwich]

I have Sproles and Mason on my bench but was planning on rolling the dice with Ivory...is he truly a GTD though?

 

[rockaction]

I have Sproles and Mason on my bench but was planning on rolling the dice with Ivory...is he truly a GTD though?

He hurt his groin in practice and is listed as questionable. It's tough because it's Monday night, but I think what was said in here was a little bit much. Rotoworld says GTD -- Jets seem confident. I wouldn't hang my hat on anything, though.

Four minutes ago on Twitter.

Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora)
4 mins ago
Chris Ivory good to go for the Jets. Expect him to set a physical tone for them Monday night

 

[Crystalsteam99]

CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reports Chris Ivory (groin) is "good to go" for Week 2 against the Colts.
Ivory's questionable tag has had fantasy owners scrambling, particularly with the Jets playing on Monday night. Rest assured, he'll be out there against a Colts defensive front that got pulverized on a weekly basis last year. Even at less than 100 percent, Ivory needs to be in your lineup this week.

 

[MattFancy]

Roll dice on Ivory or go with Tevin Coleman?

 

[Insein]

Rolling Ivory over Powell tonight. Rather go down with the starter than hope for an injury.

 

[Swing 51]

by RotoWire Staff | Special to CBSSports.com

(3 hrs ago) Jets running back Chris Ivory (quad) didn't practice Thursday, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.

Cimini relays that coach Todd Bowles 'sounds concerned about Ivory,' with the running back's Week 3 status apparently trending toward a game-time decision in advance of Sunday's game against the Eagles.

We'll let you know if Ivory's status brightens any on Friday, but if he is limited or out this weekend, then Bilal Powell and Zac Stacy would be next in line for the Jets' carries.

 

[Rogi]

GTD for today's game.

 

[TartanLion]

Ah Ivory, how you frustrate thee. If his body could only have stayed together for more than one week we'd sitting on an RB1/2 at great value.

Starting Martin over him this week, dinged up, game time decision and Powell has looked like a decent fill in, too many question marks for today I think.

 

[shadyridr]

Ah Ivory, how you frustrate thee. If his body could only have stayed together for more than one week we'd sitting on an RB1/2 at great value.

Starting Martin over him this week, dinged up, game time decision and Powell has looked like a decent fill in, too many question marks for today I think.

same here but if ivory is out i might play powell over martin

 

[matuski]

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Chris Ivory (quad) is "optimistic" he'll play Week 3 against the Eagles.
Signs continue to point to Ivory suiting up Sunday. On a short week after he was clearly limited in last Monday night's win over the Colts, expect Ivory and Bilal Powell to again split the workload in Gang Green's backfield. Powell has standalone value in PPR leagues as a FLEX, while Ivory is an RB2/3.
Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
Sep 27 - 8:06 AM

 

[zftcg]

Sitting him for Dion Lewis. I'm glad he's playing, but last week demonstrated that they will roll him out at less than 100%, so I'm not convinced he'll put up what he's capable of.

 

[GMacsTiedUpInMyBasemment]

Ivory owner, but bummed he's playing. Hedged earlier in the week by grabbing Powell, but with Ivory a go, it mitigates both of their value IMO. Thinking of rolling the dice w David Johnson...

 

[Jimbo Slice]

Will decide between ivory and Abdullah by noon

 

[TartanLion]

Ah Ivory, how you frustrate thee. If his body could only have stayed together for more than one week we'd sitting on an RB1/2 at great value.

Starting Martin over him this week, dinged up, game time decision and Powell has looked like a decent fill in, too many question marks for today I think.

same here but if ivory is out i might play powell over martin

Yep would rather Ivory sat and recovered as Powell is sitting there on my wire and can be grabbed. In that instance Martin - Powell would have been an interesting decision.

Looking like both Jet RBs are dodgy plays now this week and will be till Ivory is fully recovered or goes the other way and properly falls apart.

 

[Chaka]

Ivory owner, but bummed he's playing. Hedged earlier in the week by grabbing Powell, but with Ivory a go, it mitigates both of their value IMO. Thinking of rolling the dice w David Johnson...

I am going with David Johnson.

Jets should win based on weeks 1 & 2 but I am not ready to stick a fork in Phili just yet. They could still be a very dangerous team if they get their #### together. If they are the team we all thought they were going to be they could roll the Jets turning them into a pass heavy offense this week.

 

[GMacsTiedUpInMyBasemment]

Ivory owner, but bummed he's playing. Hedged earlier in the week by grabbing Powell, but with Ivory a go, it mitigates both of their value IMO. Thinking of rolling the dice w David Johnson...

I am going with David Johnson.

Jets should win based on weeks 1 & 2 but I am not ready to stick a fork in Phili just yet. They could still be a very dangerous team if they get their #### together. If they are the team we all thought they were going to be they could roll the Jets turning them into a pass heavy offense this week.

Agree. The eagles front seven has looked okay. I think the JETS pass today, which I guess might argue for Powell. Still rolling w DJ and hoping for

10-15 touches. He had 6 last week and Arians has said he'll give him the ball more.

 

[Insein]

Going Powell. If they're up, I'm worried Ivory aggravates something and they don't use him to grind it out. If they're down, they'll be throwing anyway which means Powell.

 

[Dizzy]

Starting Martin over him this week...

Same here. Not even thinking about playing Ivory at this point.

Martin's due to get in the end zone. If not, still better than the 0-2 pts Ivory will rack up today (did not look good Monday night).