tdmills said:
You don't think exceeding Lynch's numbers by more than a little bit isn't being extremely high on Michael?
-How many RBs in the NFL have rushed for 1200 yards or more the last 3 seasons? Answer: Only Marshawn Lynch
-How many RBs in the NFL have rushed for 1200 yards or more and had at least 11 rushing TDs the last 2 seasons? Answer: Only Marshawn Lynch
Do you still think that Christine Michael isn't just going to match producing at the highest/most consistent level in the NFL....but exceed it?
Lynch has done a great job of staying healthy on a team with that likes to run a lot,
has a great run-blocking line to run behind, and has a lot of scoring opportunities.
Lynch is a good running back in a
great situation. I think we've seen enough of him when not in a great situation to know that he's not the kind of elite back that can dominate anywhere. If Michael is that guy, as many expect, then I'd expect him to do better when placed into an equally great situation.
Lynch's YPC has been solid but unspectacular in his time in Seattle. Couple that with a lot of attempts on a team
with a good line and you've got your rushing yards. Lynch also has the most rush attempts from inside the 5 yard line of any running back in the last 3 years. Couple that with an average conversion percentage (exactly equal to that of Benjarvis Green-Ellis) and you have your TDs.
That's not meant to diminish Lynch. I believe he's a very good running back. However he's not some elite untouchable force who's production can't be replicated by a guy that many believe to be elite (and more of a game-breaker) if that other guy is placed into a
similarly great situation. Of course, the problem with counting on that from Michael is not only that he has to be as elite as people think he can be, but he also needs to do it before Seattle turns into less of
a great situation. As we've seen a lot recently, these
great situations often don't last and I think there is a legitimate fear that we'll see somewhat of a repeat of Carolina, where a guy like Stewart spent so much time on the bench that by the time he was given the starting role the team had morphed from the best place for a fantasy running back to play to one of the worst.
It's far from a lock to think that the Seattle offense won't be a blackhole for fantasy players in a mere two years. We've seen it recently with other run-first teams like the Jets and Panthers that went from being the ideal place for a fantasy RB to land to a fantasy wasteland very quickly.