cstu said:
I'm no economist, but "sunken cost" (i.e. what you paid for a player) has no bearing on what you should do with that player going forward. In other words, it doesn't matter what Michael's trade value was 12 or 18 months ago. The only thing to ask yourself if you're a Michael owner right now is, "Is he worth more than what I can get for him in a trade?" I'm guessing that the answer is a strong "yes" for me. Recouping his initial investment is hardly a "pipe dream" given that his rookie draft ADP was late 1st/early 2nd and he'll easily fetch that in a trade with half a good season any time in the next three years.
All decent backs eventually get their shot (i.e. Ben Tate and Toby Gerhart last year). If you think Michael has a good chance to be successful when that time comes then there's really no reason to up and trade him now. If you think he's a Michael Turner/Darren Sproles then you've gotta be patient enough for him to get his shot to prove it. Selling due to blocked opportunity only makes sense if you don't think he'll pan out in the long run. If you're a believer in his potential, it's simply a waiting game at this point. That's been the case since day one. There has never been a clear clock on when he would have utility, which is why he was so much cheaper than Bell and Lacy in the rookie draft that year.
If you're the guy with the itchy trigger finger and the fruit-fly attention span then this was never the right player for you from the jump because we've known all along that Lynch is in the way. Lynch will continue to be in the way until his play drops off or Michael switches teams. So it goes.
Age is starting to become a factor - he's 25 in November and will be 27 the year he's a free agent. Michael owners need to hope Lynch retires after this year because Michael won't hold much value as a 27 yo free agent.
That's the rub. By the time he may be free from the shackles that SEA has placed on him he'll be a 27 year old RB with no track record in the league (unless Lynch misses a significant chunk of time which of course is possible). Who is going to offer him starter's money at that point and hand him a starting job? Seems fairly unlikely at best.
Depends on what happens the next few years. If he can finally unseat Turbin and looks great on 100 touches in a backup role in 2015 and 2016, then he'll get a chance somewhere. The NFL doesn't start pushing the panic button at 26 the way that overzealous dynasty owners do.
Ironically, given my stance on Michael throughout this thread, I acquired him in a league this offseason. As a Michael owner now, his age doesn't worry me nearly as much as his complete lack of any type of role the past two years, and what that might say indirectly about his talent.