CJ?K in 2013 (1 Viewer)

[donkshow]

What are the expectations heading into the 2013 season? The team has definitely improved its O-Line, however they've brought in Shonn Greene, who while I think he sucks, he'll be used and could reduce an already light workload from Chris Johnson.

I expect similar numbers to last year [273 / 1243 / 6]. Less attempts, higher YPC. Hopefully more dumps and he can get back to 50 receptions.

Prediction:

250 attempts

1200 Rushing yards

4.8 YPC

7 Rush TDs

45 Receptions

290 Rec. Yards (used his yards per recepetions in the past 3 years to temper expectations)

1 Rec. TD

That'll probably land him in around RB 8-12 in PPR, RB 10-15 in non-PPR.

Think we could see a bounceback with the new O-Line and CJ's vow to get to 2000 again (he says this every year, doesn't he?). I don't know how long each of his TD's were last season, but he already wasn't working the goal line, so Greene won't be stealing anything away in that regard.

He also needs to hold onto the ball more than last season. Those 4 lost fumbles will cost him carries if he continues that.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

He is what he is at this point IMO. 2009 looks like a pretty clear outlier. Give or take 1500 total yards and 6ish TDs. I'd feel pretty good about him as my RB2. RB1? In most leagues not so much. I do think that Greene caps his upside on TDs, though -- Greene isn't great but he should be better at the goalline that Johnson.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

After Doug Martin there isn't a RB on the board I want more than Chris Johnson, is that clear enough? He has everything going for him now including a major upgrade to the interior of the OL with the signing of Levitre and also the drafting of Warmack. As Johnson tweeted out "Thank God" so should FF owners because Chris Johnson will be back in 2013 in 3-D baby and you are gonna groan, moan, and cry like a ##### because you didn't have the foresight to see what would happen, you ignored the history of this guy when he has a decent OL in front of him. You think they spent all that on the OL to pave the way for Shonn Greene? I think not!

2,000 total yds, 10-12 TD, could be a lot more if he can get involved more in the passing game. Expect at least 4-5 long TD runs. The Titans are not going to turn into a pass happy team despite their upgrades at WR. I expect Chris Johnson to take his place back amongst the elite.

So haters go ahead and hate because you are all knowing and wise based on his last couple of years with a putrid interior OL and and a team that was not interested in getting him in space where he explodes. I expect a banner year for Johnson and owners will be kicking themselves they didn't get him.

RB2? Johnson will be a top 5 RB this year, back the truck up!!!

 

[greggorymac]

Prediction: CJ1.3K

 

[Coeur de Lion]

So you're confidently taking him over Adrian Peterson this year then? Or Arian Foster and Ray Rice? Good luck with that I guess. I agree with the o-line upgrades helping compared to the mess of the last two years. But is the 2013 line better than the one he ran behind in 2008 or 2010? Is Locker going to take the next step and get the safety out of the box? Did they give Shonn Greene $3 million per to get fewer carries than the scrubs that backed up CJ the last few years?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So you're confidently taking him over Adrian Peterson this year then? Or Arian Foster and Ray Rice? Good luck with that I guess. I agree with the o-line upgrades helping compared to the mess of the last two years. But is the 2013 line better than the one he ran behind in 2008 or 2010? Is Locker going to take the next step and get the safety out of the box? Did they give Shonn Greene $3 million per to get fewer carries than the scrubs that backed up CJ the last few years?

Fortunately I don't have to spend more than an early to mid 2nd round pick it seems to get him. I can have Chris Johnson and Ray Rice.

 

[tdmills]

So you're confidently taking him over Adrian Peterson this year then? Or Arian Foster and Ray Rice? Good luck with that I guess. I agree with the o-line upgrades helping compared to the mess of the last two years. But is the 2013 line better than the one he ran behind in 2008 or 2010? Is Locker going to take the next step and get the safety out of the box? Did they give Shonn Greene $3 million per to get fewer carries than the scrubs that backed up CJ the last few years?

Fortunately I don't have to spend more than an early to mid 2nd round pick it seems to get him. I can have Chris Johnson and Ray Rice.

You sidestepped the question

 

[meyerj31]

So you're confidently taking him over Adrian Peterson this year then? Or Arian Foster and Ray Rice? Good luck with that I guess. I agree with the o-line upgrades helping compared to the mess of the last two years. But is the 2013 line better than the one he ran behind in 2008 or 2010? Is Locker going to take the next step and get the safety out of the box? Did they give Shonn Greene $3 million per to get fewer carries than the scrubs that backed up CJ the last few years?

Fortunately I don't have to spend more than an early to mid 2nd round pick it seems to get him. I can have Chris Johnson and Ray Rice.

You sidestepped the question

Not really... he answered it perfectly. He thinks CJ will be the RB2 next year but is taking him (correctly) slightly higher than his market value, which is probably RB10 in the 2nd round.

My opinion is that even Peyton Hillis had 1600 yards with a decent line and the team feeding them the ball. Anomalies happen. CJ's attitude and work ethic are not on the same planet as someone like AP so unless he gets a 30-year old All-Pro Hutchinson back blocking for him then his 2k days are long gone.

With the upgrades he's going to be probably a little better, but still very frustrating as he will have up and down weeks. I'm guessing he finishes RB10 or so and will go in the mid 2nd round in most drafts.

 

[tdmills]

So you're confidently taking him over Adrian Peterson this year then? Or Arian Foster and Ray Rice? Good luck with that I guess. I agree with the o-line upgrades helping compared to the mess of the last two years. But is the 2013 line better than the one he ran behind in 2008 or 2010? Is Locker going to take the next step and get the safety out of the box? Did they give Shonn Greene $3 million per to get fewer carries than the scrubs that backed up CJ the last few years?

Fortunately I don't have to spend more than an early to mid 2nd round pick it seems to get him. I can have Chris Johnson and Ray Rice.

You sidestepped the question

Not really... he answered it perfectly. He thinks CJ will be the RB2 next year but is taking him (correctly) slightly higher than his market value, which is probably RB10 in the 2nd round.

Value and RB2 overall are two different statements.

 

[meyerj31]

So you're confidently taking him over Adrian Peterson this year then? Or Arian Foster and Ray Rice? Good luck with that I guess. I agree with the o-line upgrades helping compared to the mess of the last two years. But is the 2013 line better than the one he ran behind in 2008 or 2010? Is Locker going to take the next step and get the safety out of the box? Did they give Shonn Greene $3 million per to get fewer carries than the scrubs that backed up CJ the last few years?

Fortunately I don't have to spend more than an early to mid 2nd round pick it seems to get him. I can have Chris Johnson and Ray Rice.

You sidestepped the question

Not really... he answered it perfectly. He thinks CJ will be the RB2 next year but is taking him (correctly) slightly higher than his market value, which is probably RB10 in the 2nd round.

Value and RB2 overall are two different statements.

Yes, and he made both of them in his comments. Do you need someone to spell it out for you exactly?

 

[tdmills]

So you're confidently taking him over Adrian Peterson this year then? Or Arian Foster and Ray Rice? Good luck with that I guess. I agree with the o-line upgrades helping compared to the mess of the last two years. But is the 2013 line better than the one he ran behind in 2008 or 2010? Is Locker going to take the next step and get the safety out of the box? Did they give Shonn Greene $3 million per to get fewer carries than the scrubs that backed up CJ the last few years?

Fortunately I don't have to spend more than an early to mid 2nd round pick it seems to get him. I can have Chris Johnson and Ray Rice.

You sidestepped the question

Not really... he answered it perfectly. He thinks CJ will be the RB2 next year but is taking him (correctly) slightly higher than his market value, which is probably RB10 in the 2nd round.

Value and RB2 overall are two different statements.

Yes, and he made both of them in his comments. Do you need someone to spell it out for you exactly?

1) I misread and thought he meant #2RB overall

2) No need to be pretentious.

 

[Grahamburn]

So you're confidently taking him over Adrian Peterson this year then? Or Arian Foster and Ray Rice? Good luck with that I guess. I agree with the o-line upgrades helping compared to the mess of the last two years. But is the 2013 line better than the one he ran behind in 2008 or 2010? Is Locker going to take the next step and get the safety out of the box? Did they give Shonn Greene $3 million per to get fewer carries than the scrubs that backed up CJ the last few years?

Fortunately I don't have to spend more than an early to mid 2nd round pick it seems to get him. I can have Chris Johnson and Ray Rice.

It seems like fantasy players start to get pretty excited about him chasing 2009 numbers every fantasy draft season. I know I have.

I don't see how he'll get the touches necessary to approach those numbers though. Greene is going to take some carries along with the all important goal line carries. To be an elite running back in fantasy anymore you have to get those touches. If you're banking on Johnson having 10+ TDs, which he'll need to be anywhere near top 5, he'll need to rip off several long TD runs. He's had 4 and 6 total TDs in the last two seasons respectively.

He's not likely to be a big receiver out of the backfield either. Partly because of Locker, and partly because CJ runs absolutely atrocious routes most of the time.

I've wondered during the last two seasons why he wasn't catching more passes, but when you watch the games he simply didn't work to get open unless he knew he was the primary target. Maybe Dowell Loggains will feature CJ in the passing game more on screens?

He doesn't get hurt, which is positive, but I don't see him in the top 5. He'll have a similar season to his last two.

 

[menobrown]

He doesn't get hurt, which is positive

Most underrated part of his game and I think a big part of why he's been more good than great. He' the anti-Trent Richardson runner, does an outstanding job of avoiding contact even if he could probably pick up a few extra yards from time to time but not sure it's a bad thing for fantasy owners.

This year I think you'll see him rebound and be at least a top 10 back in PPR and flirt with top 5 in total points. He's probably the biggest space runner in the NFL and the easiest RB in the league to tackle. Arguably no one needs blocking more than this kind of back and the Titans have strongly upgraded that department with both the OL and TE spots.

 

[pbandy1]

I'll definitely be targeting him as my RB2 (with what I hope is a RB1 year). You got to be more than optimistic with the Levitre and Warmack upgrades. I certainly think they have enough people to throw it to to take off the pressure... Kendall Wright, Nate Washington, Justin Hunter, and *maybe* Kenny Britt.

 

[jurb26]

I'm definitely in the CJ camp for 2013. I'm not sure I'm willing to pay a RB1 price for him, but as a RB2 he is pure gold IMO. I imagine his ADP will slowly rise as the offseason rolls on though.

 

[Quibbler]

We might want to slow down on the idea that Greene is going to significantly cut into CJ2K's goal line carries. Here's an interesting article comparing Greene and Johnson's short yardage work vs the other RBs on their teams in 2012.

http://www.totaltitans.com/2013-articles/march/shonn-greene-the-titans-and-short-yardage-rushing-success.html

Short version: Greene's conversion percentage on 3rd and short was about the same as the other NYJ RBs, while CJ2K was much more successful than the other Titans RBs in the same situation.

 

[Norcalhoya]

I think the top 9 RBs are pretty set with some order of (Peterson, Foster, Spiller, Martin, Richardson, McCoy, Charles, Rice, and Lynch). Are people considering him right after that group? To me, there is an absolute HUGE gulf between those 9 and the next RB (not CJ for me, prob Ridley or Forte). I'd take those 9 RBs in the top 10, wouldn't take another RB until the late 2nd round. Wouldn't you rather have a proven and/or high upside commodity at QB/WR e.g. AJ Green, Dez, Julio, Rodgers, Brees, etc???

 

[Eminence]

I like him. He's my 6th Ranked Running Back and he presents value if you can get him as your RB2.

 

[msommer]

CJ is on a series of one year contracts (nothing is guaranteed except in case of injury down the stretch. Each year on the leagues fifth day the whole year salary becomes guaranteed). So if he doesn't up his performance sufficiently he'll be cut. With the upgrades on the line (Levitre, Warmack likely to start, Schwenke and another vet G whose name escapes me now for depth) his excuses for not performing in 2013 are pretty much gone. You can be sure he knows that.

Can he do it?

I'll take the over on last years numbers, barring injury

ETA: in one PPR league I participate in he was RB12 full year. Regular season (1-12) he was RB10, but bombed in the playoffs, potentially due to injuries to the line (using 2nd string tackle, 3rd string centre and at least one 3rd string G although four starters were injured at that time - can't remember how far down they went at the other tackle/G position)

 

[Ministry of Pain]

We might want to slow down on the idea that Greene is going to significantly cut into CJ2K's goal line carries. Here's an interesting article comparing Greene and Johnson's short yardage work vs the other RBs on their teams in 2012.

http://www.totaltitans.com/2013-articles/march/shonn-greene-the-titans-and-short-yardage-rushing-success.html

Short version: Greene's conversion percentage on 3rd and short was about the same as the other NYJ RBs, while CJ2K was much more successful than the other Titans RBs in the same situation.

Greene is terrible and folks that need to be reminded of players who are paid way more than they should based on production...I've got a list longer than the phone book so chill on that idea. And they paid Chris Johnson $50 Million so if you want to talk money I got your money right here.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think the top 9 RBs are pretty set with some order of (Peterson, Foster, Spiller, Martin, Richardson, McCoy, Charles, Rice, and Lynch). Are people considering him right after that group? To me, there is an absolute HUGE gulf between those 9 and the next RB (not CJ for me, prob Ridley or Forte). I'd take those 9 RBs in the top 10, wouldn't take another RB until the late 2nd round. Wouldn't you rather have a proven and/or high upside commodity at QB/WR e.g. AJ Green, Dez, Julio, Rodgers, Brees, etc???

Yes and I can get that QB in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th round, makes no difference. WRs? With the exception of the very elite they all are up and down and you can go 2-3 weeks sometimes where they crap the bed so making a team out of a WR heavy trio early can be suicide.

I'm not coming down on you at all, in fact it's great we can have this discussion but this is a player I am more passionate about than some of the others. Top 9 are all set? Should we even play the games out? You see where I am coming from here?

 

[Grahamburn]

I think the top 9 10 RBs are pretty set with some order of (Peterson, Foster, Spiller, Martin, Richardson, McCoy, Charles, Rice, Steven Jackson, and Lynch). Are people considering him right after that group? To me, there is an absolute HUGE gulf between those 9 and the next RB (not CJ for me, prob Ridley or Forte). I'd take those 9 RBs in the top 10, wouldn't take another RB until the late 2nd round. Wouldn't you rather have a proven and/or high upside commodity at QB/WR e.g. AJ Green, Dez, Julio, Rodgers, Brees, etc???

 

[FUBAR]

So you're confidently taking him over Adrian Peterson this year then? Or Arian Foster and Ray Rice? Good luck with that I guess. I agree with the o-line upgrades helping compared to the mess of the last two years. But is the 2013 line better than the one he ran behind in 2008 or 2010? Is Locker going to take the next step and get the safety out of the box? Did they give Shonn Greene $3 million per to get fewer carries than the scrubs that backed up CJ the last few years?

Fortunately I don't have to spend more than an early to mid 2nd round pick it seems to get him. I can have Chris Johnson and Ray Rice.

You sidestepped the question

Not really... he answered it perfectly. He thinks CJ will be the RB2 next year but is taking him (correctly) slightly higher than his market value, which is probably RB10 in the 2nd round.

My opinion is that even Peyton Hillis had 1600 yards with a decent line and the team feeding them the ball. Anomalies happen. CJ's attitude and work ethic are not on the same planet as someone like AP so unless he gets a 30-year old All-Pro Hutchinson back blocking for him then his 2k days are long gone.

With the upgrades he's going to be probably a little better, but still very frustrating as he will have up and down weeks. I'm guessing he finishes RB10 or so and will go in the mid 2nd round in most drafts.

I took him 1.13 in the SSL3 mock draft, which is pretty much exactly where I think he should go. 10th RB taken, with Calvin, Graham and Green ahead of him. Some might put Rodgers and Brees ahead. In a 12 team league, if I'm walking away from the 2nd round with Calvin and Chris, I'm a happy man.

 

[Phenix]

Chris Johnson expects the Titans to sport a "run-first offense" in 2013.
"Basically we’re learning a new playbook right now and there’s a lot of different things going in," CJ?K said. "Last year ... we basically were trying to turn into like a passing team. Coming in this year, (we know) it’s going to be a run-first offense." CJ?K isn't imagining things, as the Titans have gone to great lengths to upgrade their formerly woeful interior line, while also signing Shonn Greene to be a "change of pace" back. The less the Titans put on erratic third-year QB Jake Locker's plate, the better.

Source: Nashville City Paper
May 7 - 7:27 PM

 

[donkshow]

Encouraging for us CJ supporters.

 

[FUBAR]

Chris Johnson expects the Titans to sport a "run-first offense" in 2013.

"Basically were learning a new playbook right now and theres a lot of different things going in," CJ?K said. "Last year ... we basically were trying to turn into like a passing team. Coming in this year, (we know) its going to be a run-first offense." CJ?K isn't imagining things, as the Titans have gone to great lengths to upgrade their formerly woeful interior line, while also signing Shonn Greene to be a "change of pace" back. The less the Titans put on erratic third-year QB Jake Locker's plate, the better.

Source: Nashville City Paper

May 7 - 7:27 PM

Most teams want to run more. It's obvious the titans should, especially if levitre proves worth the money and warmack lives up to the hype.

 

[ghostguy123]

After Doug Martin there isn't a RB on the board I want more than Chris Johnson, is that clear enough? He has everything going for him now including a major upgrade to the interior of the OL with the signing of Levitre and also the drafting of Warmack. As Johnson tweeted out "Thank God" so should FF owners because Chris Johnson will be back in 2013 in 3-D baby and you are gonna groan, moan, and cry like a ##### because you didn't have the foresight to see what would happen, you ignored the history of this guy when he has a decent OL in front of him. You think they spent all that on the OL to pave the way for Shonn Greene? I think not! 2,000 total yds, 10-12 TD, could be a lot more if he can get involved more in the passing game. Expect at least 4-5 long TD runs. The Titans are not going to turn into a pass happy team despite their upgrades at WR. I expect Chris Johnson to take his place back amongst the elite. So haters go ahead and hate because you are all knowing and wise based on his last couple of years with a putrid interior OL and and a team that was not interested in getting him in space where he explodes. I expect a banner year for Johnson and owners will be kicking themselves they didn't get him. RB2? Johnson will be a top 5 RB this year, back the truck up!!!

CJ himself doesnt even believe this, or even his own mom.

 

[HPD]

After Doug Martin there isn't a RB on the board I want more than Chris Johnson, is that clear enough? He has everything going for him now including a major upgrade to the interior of the OL with the signing of Levitre and also the drafting of Warmack. As Johnson tweeted out "Thank God" so should FF owners because Chris Johnson will be back in 2013 in 3-D baby and you are gonna groan, moan, and cry like a ##### because you didn't have the foresight to see what would happen, you ignored the history of this guy when he has a decent OL in front of him. You think they spent all that on the OL to pave the way for Shonn Greene? I think not! 2,000 total yds, 10-12 TD, could be a lot more if he can get involved more in the passing game. Expect at least 4-5 long TD runs. The Titans are not going to turn into a pass happy team despite their upgrades at WR. I expect Chris Johnson to take his place back amongst the elite. So haters go ahead and hate because you are all knowing and wise based on his last couple of years with a putrid interior OL and and a team that was not interested in getting him in space where he explodes. I expect a banner year for Johnson and owners will be kicking themselves they didn't get him. RB2? Johnson will be a top 5 RB this year, back the truck up!!!

All you really need is heart right? He got paid and showed up out of shape offering sloth. I'm done with CJnoK. A couple OL rookies isn't resurrecting his career

 

[msommer]

After Doug Martin there isn't a RB on the board I want more than Chris Johnson, is that clear enough? He has everything going for him now including a major upgrade to the interior of the OL with the signing of Levitre and also the drafting of Warmack. As Johnson tweeted out "Thank God" so should FF owners because Chris Johnson will be back in 2013 in 3-D baby and you are gonna groan, moan, and cry like a ##### because you didn't have the foresight to see what would happen, you ignored the history of this guy when he has a decent OL in front of him. You think they spent all that on the OL to pave the way for Shonn Greene? I think not! 2,000 total yds, 10-12 TD, could be a lot more if he can get involved more in the passing game. Expect at least 4-5 long TD runs. The Titans are not going to turn into a pass happy team despite their upgrades at WR. I expect Chris Johnson to take his place back amongst the elite. So haters go ahead and hate because you are all knowing and wise based on his last couple of years with a putrid interior OL and and a team that was not interested in getting him in space where he explodes. I expect a banner year for Johnson and owners will be kicking themselves they didn't get him. RB2? Johnson will be a top 5 RB this year, back the truck up!!!

All you really need is heart right? He got paid and showed up out of shape offering sloth. I'm done with CJnoK. A couple OL rookies isn't resurrecting his career

Sake good order since being drafted Chris Johnson has never handed in a sub 1000 yard rushing season.

 

[Faust]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...s-johnson-excited-for-titans-runfirst-offense

Chris Johnson excited for Titans' run-first offense

 

[Shawnky]

After Doug Martin there isn't a RB on the board I want more than Chris Johnson, is that clear enough? He has everything going for him now including a major upgrade to the interior of the OL with the signing of Levitre and also the drafting of Warmack. As Johnson tweeted out "Thank God" so should FF owners because Chris Johnson will be back in 2013 in 3-D baby and you are gonna groan, moan, and cry like a ##### because you didn't have the foresight to see what would happen, you ignored the history of this guy when he has a decent OL in front of him. You think they spent all that on the OL to pave the way for Shonn Greene? I think not! 2,000 total yds, 10-12 TD, could be a lot more if he can get involved more in the passing game. Expect at least 4-5 long TD runs. The Titans are not going to turn into a pass happy team despite their upgrades at WR. I expect Chris Johnson to take his place back amongst the elite. So haters go ahead and hate because you are all knowing and wise based on his last couple of years with a putrid interior OL and and a team that was not interested in getting him in space where he explodes. I expect a banner year for Johnson and owners will be kicking themselves they didn't get him. RB2? Johnson will be a top 5 RB this year, back the truck up!!!

CJ himself doesnt even believe this, or even his own mom.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

After Doug Martin there isn't a RB on the board I want more than Chris Johnson, is that clear enough? He has everything going for him now including a major upgrade to the interior of the OL with the signing of Levitre and also the drafting of Warmack. As Johnson tweeted out "Thank God" so should FF owners because Chris Johnson will be back in 2013 in 3-D baby and you are gonna groan, moan, and cry like a ##### because you didn't have the foresight to see what would happen, you ignored the history of this guy when he has a decent OL in front of him. You think they spent all that on the OL to pave the way for Shonn Greene? I think not! 2,000 total yds, 10-12 TD, could be a lot more if he can get involved more in the passing game. Expect at least 4-5 long TD runs. The Titans are not going to turn into a pass happy team despite their upgrades at WR. I expect Chris Johnson to take his place back amongst the elite. So haters go ahead and hate because you are all knowing and wise based on his last couple of years with a putrid interior OL and and a team that was not interested in getting him in space where he explodes. I expect a banner year for Johnson and owners will be kicking themselves they didn't get him. RB2? Johnson will be a top 5 RB this year, back the truck up!!!

All you really need is heart right? He got paid and showed up out of shape offering sloth. I'm done with CJnoK. A couple OL rookies isn't resurrecting his career

A couple of rookie OL???

Clearly you have a buyer's remorse from different seasons, good luck in your draft.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

since being drafted Chris Johnson has never handed in a sub 1000 yard rushing season.

Hard to believe, but true. If you asked 100 random fantasy players how many yards from scrimmage CJ has put up over the past 2 seasons, I'm guessing 90% of them would answer somewhere in the 2,000 range. Even the CJ owners from those 2 years would probably miss well to the low side.

The actual answer is 2,940.

A gap between perception and reality of that magnitude almost always means value. I think MoP is going a little over the top with his "top 5" guarantee, but I'll be targeting CJ in every league this year as my RB2 and a great buy-low candidate. My 2nd tier of RBs has just three names - CJ, MJD, and Forte - and even among those three he's got the highest ceiling and, probably, the highest floor as well.

 

[meyerj31]

since being drafted Chris Johnson has never handed in a sub 1000 yard rushing season.

Hard to believe, but true. If you asked 100 random fantasy players how many yards from scrimmage CJ has put up over the past 2 seasons, I'm guessing 90% of them would answer somewhere in the 2,000 range. Even the CJ owners from those 2 years would probably miss well to the low side.

The actual answer is 2,940.

A gap between perception and reality of that magnitude almost always means value. I think MoP is going a little over the top with his "top 5" guarantee, but I'll be targeting CJ in every league this year as my RB2 and a great buy-low candidate. My 2nd tier of RBs has just three names - CJ, MJD, and Forte - and even among those three he's got the highest ceiling and, probably, the highest floor as well.

I think anyone would be happy with CJ as a RB2, but he's likely to go earlier than that, in the RB8-12 range because of past results. So people around the turn are going to be deciding between him and a low RB1. Obviously if he's there in the late 2nd or early 3rd with 12-15 other RBs off the board then you should be taking him. That's not really the debate. I'm interested in where exactly he falls in PPR and non-PPR. There can be a big difference between the guys in the RB10-15 range this year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

since being drafted Chris Johnson has never handed in a sub 1000 yard rushing season.

Hard to believe, but true. If you asked 100 random fantasy players how many yards from scrimmage CJ has put up over the past 2 seasons, I'm guessing 90% of them would answer somewhere in the 2,000 range. Even the CJ owners from those 2 years would probably miss well to the low side.

The actual answer is 2,940.

A gap between perception and reality of that magnitude almost always means value. I think MoP is going a little over the top with his "top 5" guarantee, but I'll be targeting CJ in every league this year as my RB2 and a great buy-low candidate. My 2nd tier of RBs has just three names - CJ, MJD, and Forte - and even among those three he's got the highest ceiling and, probably, the highest floor as well.

I think anyone would be happy with CJ as a RB2, but he's likely to go earlier than that, in the RB8-12 range because of past results. So people around the turn are going to be deciding between him and a low RB1. Obviously if he's there in the late 2nd or early 3rd with 12-15 other RBs off the board then you should be taking him. That's not really the debate. I'm interested in where exactly he falls in PPR and non-PPR. There can be a big difference between the guys in the RB10-15 range this year.

Are there 12 RB1s in your opinion? How many RB1s do you have on your board?

 

[massraider]

Geez, I can't even read this guy's stuff anymore.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Geez, I can't even read this guy's stuff anymore.

I'm pretty sure I know where that's directed. He has almost 3,000 total yds over the last 2 yrs with a crummy interior, now with the improvements I think he can obtain 2,000 total yds and crack the top 5.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

since being drafted Chris Johnson has never handed in a sub 1000 yard rushing season.

Hard to believe, but true. If you asked 100 random fantasy players how many yards from scrimmage CJ has put up over the past 2 seasons, I'm guessing 90% of them would answer somewhere in the 2,000 range. Even the CJ owners from those 2 years would probably miss well to the low side.

The actual answer is 2,940.

A gap between perception and reality of that magnitude almost always means value. I think MoP is going a little over the top with his "top 5" guarantee, but I'll be targeting CJ in every league this year as my RB2 and a great buy-low candidate. My 2nd tier of RBs has just three names - CJ, MJD, and Forte - and even among those three he's got the highest ceiling and, probably, the highest floor as well.

I think anyone would be happy with CJ as a RB2, but he's likely to go earlier than that, in the RB8-12 range because of past results. So people around the turn are going to be deciding between him and a low RB1. Obviously if he's there in the late 2nd or early 3rd with 12-15 other RBs off the board then you should be taking him. That's not really the debate. I'm interested in where exactly he falls in PPR and non-PPR. There can be a big difference between the guys in the RB10-15 range this year.

I think that is the debate, actually. I would unquestionably take 7 guys ahead of CJ2K in any format: ADP, Foster, Martin, Lynch, Rice, Spiller, McCoy - so I'd put him somewhere in the 8-12 range, just as you suggested. But that's not where he's been going off the board. In the PDSL's he averaged RB15 and in the SSL's he's been in the RB11-13 range. And these are FBG drafts - I can't imagine he'd be going higher than that in your average guppy league this summer, too many people are going to be once bitten, twice shy.

No, I'm not going to take him over a Spiller or McCoy in Round 1. But it's my guess in almost every league I'll be able to grab a Spiller or McCoy at 1.09 or 1.10 and still have CJ waiting for me in Round 2. I'll take that deal every day of the week, and every slot he falls down from there is just gravy.

 

[bostonfred]

His worst season in the NFL is 1465 total yards, 4 TDs. Last year he had 1475 and 6. That's not stud RB1 numbers, but it's solid, especially considering the other offensive problems they had last year.

Now they totally revamp the offensive line, and it now looks pretty studly. That's a big improvement for any RB, but for one who excels once he breaks free, it could be enormous. Add on a few more long runs, and some of those will be TDs. Bump him up to 8-10 TDs, since he averages 8.8 TDs/season.

Plus they added Shonn Greene. Which would normally suck for a running back, but for CJ, who wasn't getting goal line carries, it could be a huge help since he won't be asked to run the ball in short yardage situations. Fewer short yardage carries = higher YPA. Last year CJ had 4.5 YPA, which is off his career average of 4.7, but better than the previous year when he averaged 4.0. Bump him up to 4.8 YPA, which would be third best in his career.

Tennessee seems committed to running the ball more. Last year, Johnson had a respectable 276 carries. Move him up to 300 carries - which would be third highest in his career - at 4.8 YPA, and we are talking about 1440 rush yards.

CJ also catches the ball well. Last year he had just 36 catches - down from 57 the year prior, and the lowest of his career. He has averaged 46 catches per season, with a previous low water mark of 43. Give him 43 catches again, averaging 6 yards per reception (not his 7.2 career average, because there's really no reason to think his receiving numbers should improve significantly except maybe on screen plays). Now we have 258 yards receiving - which would be fourth best in his career.

Add that up, and you get 43 catches, 1700 yards, and 9 TDs. That's not a bad starting point for his projection, and seems fairly conservative to me. If he is lucky enough to break a few more long TDs, he could easily approach 2000 total yards and double digit TDs. That makes him a RB1 with upside, whose trade/draft value has taken a considerable hit the last two years. Strong buy, imo.

 

[mjr]

His worst season in the NFL is 1465 total yards, 4 TDs. Last year he had 1475 and 6. That's not stud RB1 numbers, but it's solid, especially considering the other offensive problems they had last year.

It's all fine to peg CJ as a solid RB2 when you look at the year-end stats, but what they don't show is HOW CJ puts those numbers up:

4 yards on 11 carries...

17 yards on 8 carries...

141 yards on 25 carries...

24 yards on 15 carries...

195 on 18 carries...

28 yards on 11 carries...

That's not the sporadic production you really want out of your #2 RB. That's the kind of POP you want out of a #3 who can put your team over the top on any given week. CJ is the kind of back that can make your team unstoppable here and there when you use him the right way. And that's the problem: CJ never lasts long enough to be drafted as a #3RB; always the #2. And so his owners often come to resent him later on because he's not being slotted properly. CJ's erratic production is the very thing that makes him a #3RB until he can become more consistent, which I hope ends up being the case in 2013 with the additions they made to the O-line.

I have him in a dynasty, so I've stuck with him over the last few years (and my team rightfully became weaker and weaker). When I finally acquired a true #2 RB putting CJ down to the #3 spot, THAT'S when my team exploded. And even though he only put up 18 on the ground and 13 in the air during the championship game, I still won it. If he was my #2 I would have never gotten there.

Now that I know how to use him I no longer care what his projections are. I no longer take a risk in rostering him. I no longer stress his bad games. I no longer wonder when and if he can turn his game around or what's going on in Tennessee. CJ is nothing but stress-free gravy for me now, and if he ever returns to the kind of production he came into the league with then it makes it all the easier for me to win another trophy.

So If I were in a redraft, I'd leave someone else to gamble on CJ, then try to acquire him through a trade in an effort to plug him in behind 2 other RBs in my lineup.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I sold CJ for Calvin a few years back. Now I'm buying at his current price. Just added him as my #3a/b. Perfect fit for him. I think he's ready to take off on a good year, and agree with mjr about using him as a #3 for some explosive weeks. If you expect him to be your #1, you need to improve your RB squad because he is erratic.

 

[Chase Stuart]

since being drafted Chris Johnson has never handed in a sub 1000 yard rushing season.

Hard to believe, but true. If you asked 100 random fantasy players how many yards from scrimmage CJ has put up over the past 2 seasons, I'm guessing 90% of them would answer somewhere in the 2,000 range. Even the CJ owners from those 2 years would probably miss well to the low side.

The actual answer is 2,940.

A gap between perception and reality of that magnitude almost always means value. I think MoP is going a little over the top with his "top 5" guarantee, but I'll be targeting CJ in every league this year as my RB2 and a great buy-low candidate. My 2nd tier of RBs has just three names - CJ, MJD, and Forte - and even among those three he's got the highest ceiling and, probably, the highest floor as well.

Any guesses as to where CJ ranks in FP/G from 2011 to 2012, minimum 10 games played?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/game-log-dominator.php?group=1&minyr=2011&maxyr=2012&minwk=1&maxwk=17&player=all&tm=all&opp=all&pos=rb&minage=19&maxage=46&minexp=1&maxexp=25&home=all&win=all&stat1=g&stat1min=10&stat1max=&stat2=fppg&stat2min=&stat2max=&stat3=none&stat3min=&stat3max=&stat4=none&stat4min=&stat4max=&sortby1=s2&ad1=desc&sortby2=wk&ad2=asc&display=sc

Arguing that he has been anything other than disappointing is disingenuous.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Geez, I can't even read this guy's stuff anymore.

I'm pretty sure I know where that's directed. He has almost 3,000 total yds over the last 2 yrs with a crummy interior, now with the improvements I think he can obtain 2,000 total yds and crack the top 5.

I don't agree that he'll crack top 5, but it's hardly an outlandish position. I like the stance.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

since being drafted Chris Johnson has never handed in a sub 1000 yard rushing season.

Hard to believe, but true. If you asked 100 random fantasy players how many yards from scrimmage CJ has put up over the past 2 seasons, I'm guessing 90% of them would answer somewhere in the 2,000 range. Even the CJ owners from those 2 years would probably miss well to the low side.

The actual answer is 2,940.

A gap between perception and reality of that magnitude almost always means value. I think MoP is going a little over the top with his "top 5" guarantee, but I'll be targeting CJ in every league this year as my RB2 and a great buy-low candidate. My 2nd tier of RBs has just three names - CJ, MJD, and Forte - and even among those three he's got the highest ceiling and, probably, the highest floor as well.

Any guesses as to where CJ ranks in FP/G from 2011 to 2012, minimum 10 games played?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/game-log-dominator.php?group=1&minyr=2011&maxyr=2012&minwk=1&maxwk=17&player=all&tm=all&opp=all&pos=rb&minage=19&maxage=46&minexp=1&maxexp=25&home=all&win=all&stat1=g&stat1min=10&stat1max=&stat2=fppg&stat2min=&stat2max=&stat3=none&stat3min=&stat3max=&stat4=none&stat4min=&stat4max=&sortby1=s2&ad1=desc&sortby2=wk&ad2=asc&display=sc

Arguing that he has been anything other than disappointing is disingenuous.

1. He ranks 23rd on that list with 11 PPG. However, RB14 on that list (Frank Gore) averaged 11.8 PPG over the same span; less than 1 PPG between 10 spots.

2. Your list is non-PPR. Change it to PPR and he moves up to RB18; well in RB2 range.

3. Of the top-24 RBs on that list, only 6 have played in the full 32 or 16 games they qualified for (Johnson, Rice, Spiller, Morris, Turner and Gore).

I will admit that from a consistency perspective, CJ has been a dissapointment the last two seasons, especially compared to his first three in the league. However, he's still finished the last two years with ~1500 total yards and a ~5 TDs.

I'll be surprised if his yardage goes down this year, and I wouldn;t be surprised if his TDs go up.

 

[bostonfred]

Some other guys in that top 25 -

Darren McFadden - I'd rather have had CJ for 32 games than McFadden for 19 the last two years.

Jamaal Charles - Played fewer games (18) than McFadden

Maurice Jones-Drew - Two year PPG favors the guy who had his career year then missed 10 games the following season

Willis McGahee - exact same PPG as CJ2K over the last two years, but 7 fewer games

Steven Jackson - Turns 30 this summer

Darren Sproles - Older than SJax

Frank Gore - Older than Sproles

Michael Turner. Older than Gore

Fred Jackson - Older than Dirt

Ahmad Bradshaw - Might have a job this year

Mikel Leshoure - Shares carries with Reggie Bush

Reggie Bush - Shares carries with Mikel Leshoure

Ryan Mathews - Shares carries with the opposing team

That's 13 out of the 22 guys who are ahead of CJ who have substantial issues that make it unlikely they will be ahead of him again. And to illustrate the value of two year PPG, CJ Spiller (the other CJ) is one spot behind CJ2k in ppg the last two years.

So from your list, CJ would be roughly 11th - after Peterson, Foster, Martin, Richardson, Morris, Rice, McCoy, Lynch, Forte and Spiller. You might sneak a couple of the guys I listed above ahead of him - maybe MJD and SJax? - or feel really strongly that one of the rookies might pass him or something. But otherwise, you're looking at a guy who probably deserves to be taken in the top 15 or so even if he had no improvements to his own situation. And he has - the most important kind of improvement for a guy who needs to get in space. That's why he's a good pick. If he's putting up startable numbers (top 24, and less than a PPG difference vs. RB14 on your list in non-PPR) when he has down years, then what can he do when things are looking up substantially over there?

 

[Chase Stuart]

I like CJ this year, maybe even a lot. But he's been disappointing the last two years; no way around that.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

His worst season in the NFL is 1465 total yards, 4 TDs. Last year he had 1475 and 6. That's not stud RB1 numbers, but it's solid, especially considering the other offensive problems they had last year. Now they totally revamp the offensive line, and it now looks pretty studly. That's a big improvement for any RB, but for one who excels once he breaks free, it could be enormous. Add on a few more long runs, and some of those will be TDs. Bump him up to 8-10 TDs, since he averages 8.8 TDs/season. Plus they added Shonn Greene. Which would normally suck for a running back, but for CJ, who wasn't getting goal line carries, it could be a huge help since he won't be asked to run the ball in short yardage situations. Fewer short yardage carries = higher YPA. Last year CJ had 4.5 YPA, which is off his career average of 4.7, but better than the previous year when he averaged 4.0. Bump him up to 4.8 YPA, which would be third best in his career. Tennessee seems committed to running the ball more. Last year, Johnson had a respectable 276 carries. Move him up to 300 carries - which would be third highest in his career - at 4.8 YPA, and we are talking about 1440 rush yards. CJ also catches the ball well. Last year he had just 36 catches - down from 57 the year prior, and the lowest of his career. He has averaged 46 catches per season, with a previous low water mark of 43. Give him 43 catches again, averaging 6 yards per reception (not his 7.2 career average, because there's really no reason to think his receiving numbers should improve significantly except maybe on screen plays). Now we have 258 yards receiving - which would be fourth best in his career. Add that up, and you get 43 catches, 1700 yards, and 9 TDs. That's not a bad starting point for his projection, and seems fairly conservative to me. If he is lucky enough to break a few more long TDs, he could easily approach 2000 total yards and double digit TDs. That makes him a RB1 with upside, whose trade/draft value has taken a considerable hit the last two years. Strong buy, imo.

Some other guys in that top 25 -

Darren McFadden - I'd rather have had CJ for 32 games than McFadden for 19 the last two years.

Jamaal Charles - Played fewer games (18) than McFadden

Maurice Jones-Drew - Two year PPG favors the guy who had his career year then missed 10 games the following season

Willis McGahee - exact same PPG as CJ2K over the last two years, but 7 fewer games

Steven Jackson - Turns 30 this summer

Darren Sproles - Older than SJax

Frank Gore - Older than Sproles

Michael Turner. Older than Gore

Fred Jackson - Older than Dirt

Ahmad Bradshaw - Might have a job this year

Mikel Leshoure - Shares carries with Reggie Bush

Reggie Bush - Shares carries with Mikel Leshoure

Ryan Mathews - Shares carries with the opposing team

That's 13 out of the 22 guys who are ahead of CJ who have substantial issues that make it unlikely they will be ahead of him again. And to illustrate the value of two year PPG, CJ Spiller (the other CJ) is one spot behind CJ2k in ppg the last two years.

So from your list, CJ would be roughly 11th - after Peterson, Foster, Martin, Richardson, Morris, Rice, McCoy, Lynch, Forte and Spiller. You might sneak a couple of the guys I listed above ahead of him - maybe MJD and SJax? - or feel really strongly that one of the rookies might pass him or something. But otherwise, you're looking at a guy who probably deserves to be taken in the top 15 or so even if he had no improvements to his own situation. And he has - the most important kind of improvement for a guy who needs to get in space. That's why he's a good pick. If he's putting up startable numbers (top 24, and less than a PPG difference vs. RB14 on your list in non-PPR) when he has down years, then what can he do when things are looking up substantially over there?

Outstanding work

 

[Norcalhoya]

After Doug Martin there isn't a RB on the board I want more than Chris Johnson, is that clear enough? He has everything going for him now including a major upgrade to the interior of the OL with the signing of Levitre and also the drafting of Warmack. As Johnson tweeted out "Thank God" so should FF owners because Chris Johnson will be back in 2013 in 3-D baby and you are gonna groan, moan, and cry like a ##### because you didn't have the foresight to see what would happen, you ignored the history of this guy when he has a decent OL in front of him. You think they spent all that on the OL to pave the way for Shonn Greene? I think not! 2,000 total yds, 10-12 TD, could be a lot more if he can get involved more in the passing game. Expect at least 4-5 long TD runs. The Titans are not going to turn into a pass happy team despite their upgrades at WR. I expect Chris Johnson to take his place back amongst the elite. So haters go ahead and hate because you are all knowing and wise based on his last couple of years with a putrid interior OL and and a team that was not interested in getting him in space where he explodes. I expect a banner year for Johnson and owners will be kicking themselves they didn't get him. RB2? Johnson will be a top 5 RB this year, back the truck up!!!

All you really need is heart right? He got paid and showed up out of shape offering sloth. I'm done with CJnoK. A couple OL rookies isn't resurrecting his career

Sake good order since being drafted Chris Johnson has never handed in a sub 1000 yard rushing season.

Yea, but he has had god awful stretches the last 2 years. 1000 yds is just a product of not getting hurt. 1000/16 is just over 60 yds a game. And I bet about 20% of his yards came on 2 plays last year, i.e. long runs against the bears and jets if I recall.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Some other guys in that top 25 -

Darren McFadden - I'd rather have had CJ for 32 games than McFadden for 19 the last two years.

Jamaal Charles - Played fewer games (18) than McFadden

Maurice Jones-Drew - Two year PPG favors the guy who had his career year then missed 10 games the following season

Willis McGahee - exact same PPG as CJ2K over the last two years, but 7 fewer games

Steven Jackson - Turns 30 this summer

Darren Sproles - Older than SJax

Frank Gore - Older than Sproles

Michael Turner. Older than Gore

Fred Jackson - Older than Dirt

Ahmad Bradshaw - Might have a job this year

Mikel Leshoure - Shares carries with Reggie Bush

Reggie Bush - Shares carries with Mikel Leshoure

Ryan Mathews - Shares carries with the opposing team

That's 13 out of the 22 guys who are ahead of CJ who have substantial issues that make it unlikely they will be ahead of him again. And to illustrate the value of two year PPG, CJ Spiller (the other CJ) is one spot behind CJ2k in ppg the last two years.

So from your list, CJ would be roughly 11th - after Peterson, Foster, Martin, Richardson, Morris, Rice, McCoy, Lynch, Forte and Spiller. You might sneak a couple of the guys I listed above ahead of him - maybe MJD and SJax? - or feel really strongly that one of the rookies might pass him or something. But otherwise, you're looking at a guy who probably deserves to be taken in the top 15 or so even if he had no improvements to his own situation. And he has - the most important kind of improvement for a guy who needs to get in space. That's why he's a good pick. If he's putting up startable numbers (top 24, and less than a PPG difference vs. RB14 on your list in non-PPR) when he has down years, then what can he do when things are looking up substantially over there?

I like this post alot, except the part where we disregard Charles because he missed a year to an ACL tear, let's just forget he came back and was RB8 the next year and his team has both improved its line and passing game.

I see CJ going as the 10th or 11th rb off the board, a spot that I think he will greatly outperform. I really like CJ year, I'd say 1900 total yards is perfectly reasonable.

 

[msommer]

After Doug Martin there isn't a RB on the board I want more than Chris Johnson, is that clear enough? He has everything going for him now including a major upgrade to the interior of the OL with the signing of Levitre and also the drafting of Warmack. As Johnson tweeted out "Thank God" so should FF owners because Chris Johnson will be back in 2013 in 3-D baby and you are gonna groan, moan, and cry like a ##### because you didn't have the foresight to see what would happen, you ignored the history of this guy when he has a decent OL in front of him. You think they spent all that on the OL to pave the way for Shonn Greene? I think not! 2,000 total yds, 10-12 TD, could be a lot more if he can get involved more in the passing game. Expect at least 4-5 long TD runs. The Titans are not going to turn into a pass happy team despite their upgrades at WR. I expect Chris Johnson to take his place back amongst the elite. So haters go ahead and hate because you are all knowing and wise based on his last couple of years with a putrid interior OL and and a team that was not interested in getting him in space where he explodes. I expect a banner year for Johnson and owners will be kicking themselves they didn't get him. RB2? Johnson will be a top 5 RB this year, back the truck up!!!

All you really need is heart right? He got paid and showed up out of shape offering sloth. I'm done with CJnoK. A couple OL rookies isn't resurrecting his career

Sake good order since being drafted Chris Johnson has never handed in a sub 1000 yard rushing season.

Yea, but he has had god awful stretches the last 2 years. 1000 yds is just a product of not getting hurt. 1000/16 is just over 60 yds a game. And I bet about 20% of his yards came on 2 plays last year, i.e. long runs against the bears and jets if I recall.

The comment was based on the CJnoK jibe. I've lived through CJ's first five years on my roster so I am well familiar with the spread in ppg