CJ?K in 2013 (1 Viewer)

[Ned Ryerson]

Yeah, in all fairness he has definitely had some bad games, but the games where he was really bad are against run Ds that are tough - it hasn't been wildly unpredictable. If you'd like better out of a RB taken in the first 2-3 rounds that is definitely reasonable though.

Chris Harris of ESPN made an observation about him the other day that I thought was interesting, effectively saying that Johnson is not much of running back anymore, meaning that if there is a reasonably big hole, he is more likely than most backs in the league to take it to the house because of awesome straight line speed. BUT if a reasonably sized hole was not there, he was going to struggle because his vision and ability to break tackles was marginal.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Yeah, in all fairness he has definitely had some bad games, but the games where he was really bad are against run Ds that are tough - it hasn't been wildly unpredictable. If you'd like better out of a RB taken in the first 2-3 rounds that is definitely reasonable though.

Chris Harris of ESPN made an observation about him the other day that I thought was interesting, effectively saying that Johnson is not much of running back anymore, meaning that if there is a reasonably big hole, he is more likely than most backs in the league to take it to the house because of awesome straight line speed. BUT if a reasonably sized hole was not there, he was going to struggle because his vision and ability to break tackles was marginal.

I did not pay much attention til I acquired him right before the Rams game, but this seems right from the little bit I have seen - a lot of going down at first contact. One notable exception was down by the goalline on a TD vs the Colts in the Thursday game, he definitely had to run through a tackle to score there. His straight line speed still looks great when there are openings. His resurgence in the passing game has been a good way to get him out in space, and seems to keep him a little bit viable when they get away from the run game.

 

[Koya]

Yeah, in all fairness he has definitely had some bad games, but the games where he was really bad are against run Ds that are tough - it hasn't been wildly unpredictable. If you'd like better out of a RB taken in the first 2-3 rounds that is definitely reasonable though.

Chris Harris of ESPN made an observation about him the other day that I thought was interesting, effectively saying that Johnson is not much of running back anymore, meaning that if there is a reasonably big hole, he is more likely than most backs in the league to take it to the house because of awesome straight line speed. BUT if a reasonably sized hole was not there, he was going to struggle because his vision and ability to break tackles was marginal.

I did not pay much attention til I acquired him right before the Rams game, but this seems right from the little bit I have seen - a lot of going down at first contact. One notable exception was down by the goalline on a TD vs the Colts in the Thursday game, he definitely had to run through a tackle to score there. His straight line speed still looks great when there are openings. His resurgence in the passing game has been a good way to get him out in space, and seems to keep him a little bit viable when they get away from the run game.

I can't recall but thought I read recently that he is among the bottom tier of RBs when it comes to yards after contact. But that speed makes for some good, albeit inconsistent, fantasy production.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Found this from a few weeks ago, does not show where he stacks up though. Definitely makes sense after seeing him run.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/102525/chris-johnson-and-yards-after-contact

Even for all of his flaws, I still think the negative sentiment has gone too far on him for fantasy purposes - fact is he has had a good number of games that I'd at least consider passable within the context of what seems to be a down year for RBs. People act like he has leprosy - I traded Lamar Miller and Nicks for him and was pretty much laughed at.

 

[ldizzle]

Anyonw worried about him in den this week. Den has been pretty solid against some elite runners so far last week was the closest anyone has got to 100 yds and it took a goal line run for charles to get a td. Den hasnt had a 100 yd rusher and previous to last week backs like shady and charles had mediocre days.. Not only that if den gets a quick lead ten may abandon the run like they have in previous games. Am I overthinking this?

 

[msommer]

Anyonw worried about him in den this week. Den has been pretty solid against some elite runners so far last week was the closest anyone has got to 100 yds and it took a goal line run for charles to get a td. Den hasnt had a 100 yd rusher and previous to last week backs like shady and charles had mediocre days.. Not only that if den gets a quick lead ten may abandon the run like they have in previous games. Am I overthinking this?

They might throw it to him and he has taken a few to the house of those. If you have a solid back up with a decent match up I'd consider that, but if you need to swing for the fences you could do worse than with Johnson

 

[Interseptopus]

He averaging 14.77 points per game in my league. Hardly "elite"

He's ranked 18th in average in my league, although I will admit we have some goofy return yard scoring.

In total points he's 15th.

Again, I admit we have some weird scoring with return yards, but even if you normalize that stat, he's still out of the top 10 (12th in total points)

I really don't understand how he is top 10. That just seems impossible, but maybe those leagues offer no points for return yards and no PPR... I guess it could be possible then. I'm in a PPR league. He's falling short this year on receptions. That's where his true value lies. I would imagine next year he could be a PPR monster

14.77 average is rough.

I will admit, I had high hopes for his playoff schedule and I wish his owner wasn't a complete knob and was active in my league because I had a decent trade push for him.

To say he deserves to be in the same sentence as Charles, AP, Shady is a reach. Although how many people saw Forte being top 3, or Moreno top 5, I would have been just as skeptical.

FBG standard scoring he is 8th.FBG standard scoring with PPR he is 9th. (admittedly the difference between 8 and 13 is minuscule)

That said, I don't see how anybody can call him a disappointment. I don;t think anybody had him ranked in the top 10 preseason, and he is there now. I'd say he was a value pick.

I would concede that he was a value pick, but with an asterisk (will explain below). My original posting here was to point out how ridiculous some people had him ranked.He was picked as a rb2 in most leagues, and yes at season end total points they will have had a bargain.

However.... My big issue with CJ is that he is the Chad Johnson of RBs. Chad would get 3-5 catches for 30-40 yards 10/16 games, but those other 6 games he would go off for 150+ yards and 1-2 scores. So by seasons end sure he had scored enough to be top 15-20, but really he hurt you more than he helped you.

For comparison, in my standard league Alfred Morris is right behind him. Looking at his stats, for the most part you know what you're getting: about 90 rushing yards a game and maybe a score here and there. Fairly consistent.

Maybe it's my personal preference, but I'd rather have a rb who I can count on getting at least 90 yards and maybe a score, with the possibility of getting 100+ Over CJ who could get 30 points with a monster 200+ 2 score game but could also get 25 yards and no score.

So yes, total numbers perhaps he was a steal, but he's not an overly confident play every week which doesn't make him a rb2 in my mind. If you have to ask yourself if you should start your rb2 every week, that's an intangible that drops them down to a rb3/flex play

Yea this just isn't trueHis games of under 9 points in standard scoring were:

@Pittsburgh

vs NYJ

@ Seattle

vs Jax

@ Oakland

3 of those were tough matchups and CJ probably wasn't ranked in the top 15 (or 30 depending on the ranker :/)

Jax was unpredictably bad but that doesn't exactly look terrible now given that Jax has been solid for over a month now

Oakland has been 'better than you think' all year defensively

How many rb2s have 7 of 12 results of 9+ points?

So 7/12 = 58% of games at 9+ points

Going off my standard league:

RB 11: Lacy 8/11 (72%)

RB 12: Murray: 8/10 (80%)

RB 13: F. Jackson 9/12 (75%)

RB 14: Matthews: 8/12 (67%)

RB 15: Benard: 5/12 (42%)

RB 16: Stacy: 5/8 (63%)

RB 17: MJD 8/12 (67%)

RB 18: Jennings: 6/12 (50%) However he's only gotten "starter carries" in 7 games, and gone over the 9 point mark in 6/7 of those games

RB 19: J. Bell: 5/12 (42%)

RB 20: L. Bell 7/9 (78%)

So to answer your original question, 7/10 RB2s (8 if you only look at Jenning's stats when McFadden was hurt) get at least 9 points per game more than 58% of their games thus far

If you want to look at top 10, since CJ is technically a RB1 this season:

RB 1: AP 9/12 (75%)

RB 2: Charles 11/12 (92%

RB 3: Forte 11/12 (92%)

RB 4: McCoy 10/12 (83%)

RB 5: Moreno 9/12 (75%)

RB 6: Lynch 8/12 (67%)

RB 7: Bush 8/12 (67%)

RB 8: C. Johnson 7/12 (58%)

RB 9: A. Morris 9/12 (75%)

RB 10: Gore 8/12 (67%)

So if anything, you've made my point very well for me. In the top 20 RBs, only 3 RBs score lesser % wise in games above 9 points in active games this season.

One of them, Benard, shares time and is, arguably, under-utilized

Another, Jennings, has been a starter for only 7 games, and has gone over 9 points in 86% (6) of those games, but he's played in all 12, putting him only at 50%

And the last, J. Bell, shares time with another RB in the top 10

Ranking RBs based off of your argument, CJ would be ranked RB 17

I concede that CJ has the abilty to outscore most of those RB2s and many RB1s. That's what's attractive for him, and that's my point. End of the season he will have RB1 numbers, but he is so inconsistent.

He is like Chad Johnson. If you can live with/afford the many down games for exchange of 2-3 amazing games, then great, go for it.

Personally, I've been hosed by players like that too often in my fantasy career, I avoid them, cross them off my draft list from the get go. Their end of season stats make them look attractive. And yes, that's because they are good football players. But fantasy wise, they are some of the worst to own.

 

[boilerdave]

They were just discussing on NFL Network that CJ likely will not be not be back with the Titans in 2014.

 

[ldizzle]

They were just discussing on NFL Network that CJ likely will not be not be back with the Titans in 2014.

i hate when news like this comes out during the fantasy playoffs. we dont know if this will motivate him to play harder to get a big contract elsewhere, or if he tries to play it safe to stay healthy and not get injured to ensure himself a contract with someone else.

 

[cstu]

They were just discussing on NFL Network that CJ likely will not be not be back with the Titans in 2014.

The truth is they should have cut him this year but ended up paying him $10M even though cutting him would have saved them $4M off the cap. They face the same issue next year - $8M in salary with $4M in dead money.

 

[cstu]

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Mike Silver report the Titans are expected to release Chris Johnson following the 2013 season.

Appearing on GameDay Morning, both Rapoport and Silver had a lengthy discussion about the Titans. Coach Mike Munchak is reportedly coaching for his job, while the team also doesn't intend to pick up the club option on Jake Locker for the 2015 season. After going wild in free agency last offseason, the Titans are just 5-7.

Rapoport cites "philosophical differences" between the team's brass and its coaching staff. The Titans are built to run the ball but are playing pass-first offense. Johnson is in the third year of a six-year, $55.26 million deal. We'd expect the Titans to try and trade him after the season. Teams are unlikely to bite due to Johnson's $8 million salary. Johnson will be 29 next September, but he's shown he still has juice in his legs.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Dec 8 - 10:16 AM

 

[Interseptopus]

IMO, this goes to show even the titans aren't happy with his feast or famine play style, although it's not all his fault, and obviously $$ has a lot to do with it.

Interesting, I remember when he wanted this deal and threatened to hold out... Now he's being cut because he's not playing up to his salary.

Would be interesting to see where he catches on. I can't see him being an every down back again unless he gets into a very unique situation.

Cleveland is about the only team that first comes to my mind that needs a rb desperately. Many holes, might try to get a rb who is ready now vs a project in the draft. At the same time, CJ?K is going to demand a big salary. Also, he this highly of himself, so he might want to go to a bigger market (ny?)

 

[Mile High]

IMO, this goes to show even the titans aren't happy with his feast or famine play style, although it's not all his fault, and obviously $$ has a lot to do with it.

Interesting, I remember when he wanted this deal and threatened to hold out... Now he's being cut because he's not playing up to his salary.

Would be interesting to see where he catches on. I can't see him being an every down back again unless he gets into a very unique situation.

Cleveland is about the only team that first comes to my mind that needs a rb desperately. Many holes, might try to get a rb who is ready now vs a project in the draft. At the same time, CJ?K is going to demand a big salary. Also, he this highly of himself, so he might want to go to a bigger market (ny?)

It's about the money. No team wants to pay RBs any money. They all want to pass even when their QBs suck. Every one seems to think they have a Payton Manning just because they start a QB.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Gotta decide on two out of Chris Johnson, Woodhead, and Fred Jackson. No idea what I'm going to do. Woodhead has been playing so much less lately, I'm leaning towards Johnson and Jackson.

 

[cstu]

Gotta decide on two out of Chris Johnson, Woodhead, and Fred Jackson. No idea what I'm going to do. Woodhead has been playing so much less lately, I'm leaning towards Johnson and Jackson.

Johnson of course and...glad I don't have to make that decision.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Gotta decide on two out of Chris Johnson, Woodhead, and Fred Jackson. No idea what I'm going to do. Woodhead has been playing so much less lately, I'm leaning towards Johnson and Jackson.

Johnson of course and...glad I don't have to make that decision.

Yeah, it's a tough one. I'm leaning against Woodhead. His last good game was still only good because he scored twice, and I don't see the Chargers trailing the a Giants much. I think usage-wise he's just not reliable right now.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Man oh man I wonder if this news will affect his usage and/or his motivation from here in out? He's my flex. I could go with Ball or Lacarius Green. Jesus...

I've a bad feeling about Johnson all week as it is and now this report.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Man oh man I wonder if this news will affect his usage and/or his motivation from here in out? He's my flex. I could go with Ball or Lacarius Green. Jesus...

I've a bad feeling about Johnson all week as it is and now this report.

In the same boat. Already feeling bad anout CJ because the game script could move away from him once the Broncos take the lead. I have Bernard and Bell so it's between a limited upside volume play and upside guys in a timeshare. Grrr.