The Commish
Footballguy
They pretty much were....just not for the uninformed reasons MOP thinks.
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QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Apple Juice
Footballguy
Yeah it's pretty well known they saw major protection issues early and loaded up the o-line to pound the rock so JJ wouldn't get killed.
massraider
Footballguy
Dane Brugler had a fantastic observation that I never heard before, and made a ton of sense.
He said the physical stuff is not how teams set the ceiling, it's how they set the floor.
Justin Fields has a certain floor, because he can run like that. He does not have a higher ceiling than every other QB, because he can run like that. It's not the way it works.
Brugler said that ceiling is set by the intangibles, and teams decide ceiling when they meet the guy, and get him on the board, and try and guess if he's a special competitor, like Mahomes and Brady. How much does he love ball, is he a worker, all that stuff.
Anyway, it was brought up by Brugler because his point was, "Listen, if people are getting hyped over McCarthy before teams start meeting him, wait till they meet him. Because he's going to check all those boxes. They are going to like him more."
He said the physical stuff is not how teams set the ceiling, it's how they set the floor.
Justin Fields has a certain floor, because he can run like that. He does not have a higher ceiling than every other QB, because he can run like that. It's not the way it works.
Brugler said that ceiling is set by the intangibles, and teams decide ceiling when they meet the guy, and get him on the board, and try and guess if he's a special competitor, like Mahomes and Brady. How much does he love ball, is he a worker, all that stuff.
Anyway, it was brought up by Brugler because his point was, "Listen, if people are getting hyped over McCarthy before teams start meeting him, wait till they meet him. Because he's going to check all those boxes. They are going to like him more."
The Commish
Footballguy
Right side of the line was getting abused but even before that, it was rather obvious JJ wasn't himself. He seemed REALLY off from the start. Then a couple weeks later it was made known that he was basically immobile at the beginning of that week. Still don't know what the specific injury was though...at least I don't.
Faust
MVP
SleeperNFL
JJ McCarthy:of Passer Rating and Conversion Rate on 3rd down
(via @LuckIsMadeFF)
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Started watching him last night. Very impressed so far. He really looks the part to me, just jumps off the screen. I’m honestly not going to be surprised if he goes #2 overall to Washington.
Think they are still figuring out what they want their identity to be both as an offense and franchise. Something tells me when the dust settles, he will be their guy. Would be a bold move with todays consensus but think either the consensus changes or they just end up falling in love.
Think they are still figuring out what they want their identity to be both as an offense and franchise. Something tells me when the dust settles, he will be their guy. Would be a bold move with todays consensus but think either the consensus changes or they just end up falling in love.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
Chaos34
Footballguy
I think I have a good handle on the 3 west coast qbs so highly rated in this draft. I've followed Daniels close enough since he was at ASU, and I have a crush on his development for sure. I just haven't "started watching" JJ enough to have a confident opinion, but everything I'm reading suggests he's gonna be an excellent choice.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
Yet Josh Rosen went #10 although every single team knew he didn't like football. Ryan Leaf went #2 even though every team knew he was clearly a complete idiot. Kyler Murray went #1 despite saying he'd rather play baseball. JaMarcus Russell. Aklii Smith. On and on and on. Some of these guys said straight up they didn't love football Fact is teams will use Go-Go Gadget length arms to reach for a QB.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Some teams may be like you and prefer Penix over McCarthy. The current projected draft boards are fun to discuss but they are just guesses.
Thanks, definitely agree on him having a ton of talent around him, that's maybe why I would be gun shy in the 1st Rd
In the NFL, you have to throw 35-40x a game routinely. I tend to agree with you that he's likely gonna go higher than maybe where he would 10-15 years ago.
Just because of the rookie QB contracts.
-Like Penix a lot more and he's going later.
massraider
Footballguy
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Joey Harrington and Andre Ware!! Detroit Lions
LawFitz
Footballguy
Chris Sims and Kurt Warner with some pretty sharp criticism of Maye the last couple days. Dude's stock may be in a total freefall behind the scenes right now, if those two are more in line with how the NFL sees these QBs vs. the draft gurus who annointed Maye as the #1b of this class prior to the *2022* season.
JJM appears to be stealing Maye's shine more and more every day. I've been saying for at least a couple weeks now that the first three picks seem to be trending towards Caleb, Daniels, JJM - the chorus for that scenario continues to gain steam. This is the most intriguing QB draft ever, for me at least, who wasn't paying attention in 1983.
JJM appears to be stealing Maye's shine more and more every day. I've been saying for at least a couple weeks now that the first three picks seem to be trending towards Caleb, Daniels, JJM - the chorus for that scenario continues to gain steam. This is the most intriguing QB draft ever, for me at least, who wasn't paying attention in 1983.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
I was. This is better, at least for the average NFL fan. There was no internet back then, and very little national interest in the draft. For instance, it was still being held on a Tuesday morning in 1983. Dr. Z wrote a mock draft for SI that used to appear near the last page. I don't think any other national mags covered it at all.
massraider
Footballguy
Round 1 QBs since the 2017 Draft that dropped back 20 times per game or less in college (via PFF)
- Mitch Trubisky
- Trey Lance
- Mac Jones
- JJ McCarthy*
- Mitch Trubisky
- Trey Lance
- Mac Jones
- JJ McCarthy*
massraider
Footballguy
30 for 30 about that draft was so interesting
I lived at a boarding school in the middle of nowhere at the time. My access to TV was limited at best and I got the sports page the day after when the faculty was done with it.
I had bought Joel Buschbaums draft guide and to pass time was constantly doing mocks. I'm a Steelers fan and would always try and put Marino to them and then I'd tell myself "do it right, you know he's not going to last that far". Then he did, and they passed and when I found out two days after it happened I was down about it and then it only got a lot worse from that point on.
Anyway, this is infintely better then no internet, almsot no TV, no cable for sure and finding out two days after the draft who actually when were. Plus I don't live at a boarding school with a bunch of dudes so it's way way better for me.
N Zone
Footballguy
Who's on this list from 1997 to 2016?Round 1 QBs since the 2017 Draft that dropped back 20 times per game or less in college (via PFF)
- Mitch Trubisky
- Trey Lance
- Mac Jones
- JJ McCarthy*
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
How do you pass on Harrison, Jr is you're the Cards? You just sent everyone elsewhere at WR
Murray needs ay least 1 bonafide weapon.
You're talking Denver at 12 or Vegas at 13, that's a pretty steep drop and what will be left there for them is my 1st question.
Vikings have 11 and 23 to play with but that's a lot for QB No 4 off the board.
Penix is going 1st Rd for sure if this is 1-2-3-4 all QBs
Birdie048
Footballguy
I agree that is looking like the likely trend of rumors with picks/deals.
Why do you hate that the NFL Teams are looking at Daniels & JJ McCarthy as quality future starting/franchise QBs?
I like what both of them have accomplished and both have faced quality opponents on a more regular basis than most QB's valued this way.
I am looking at either in my 1QB league at the 2.03-2.06 range for long term options.
And while I agree Harrison & Nabers are both electric, does ARZ think giving up on MH2 at 1.04 for Nabers in the 10-15 range & next years 1st potential haul?
I would strongly consider such a long term investment for franchise growth and success. That is a "Howie Move" IMO.
I like JJ as a "game manager" but his efficiency is amazing. I think he has the tools to be successful in the right timing controlled offense (Shanny type).
Don't think Zona will trade out, they want Harrison and they need him. Chargers seem like a team willing to trade out, and a team can know they can trade to 5 and still get a QB if they want to.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
WR is really deep and you're getting multiple picks to fill out the rest of your roster. I'd trade that pick to Minnesota in a heartbeat if I'm Arizona.
Max Power
Footballguy
I could see the Cards taking 11 and 23 for #4. Outside chance a big 3 WR is left at 11 or grab Brian Thomas later.
All of that said, I think McCarthy goes top 3.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I can also see a scenario where NE takes Harrison and then trades back into the first for Nix/Penix or drafts one of them at the top of round 2 with #34.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Patriots at No 3 now?
This guy has really flown up the projections/charts. I'm not going to dwell on the negatives that I pointed out a couple weeks back and why I'd be hesitant.
Why not the Patriots at No 3? Replace a legend from Michigan with another Michigan prospect, would be quite a fan rejuvenator.
This guy has really flown up the projections/charts. I'm not going to dwell on the negatives that I pointed out a couple weeks back and why I'd be hesitant.
Why not the Patriots at No 3? Replace a legend from Michigan with another Michigan prospect, would be quite a fan rejuvenator.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
THIS THIS THIS
-I do think someone in the Top 5-6 is going to take a pass at QB, take a surefire weapon at WR, trade up out of the High 2nd to say 21-Miami, 26-Tampa Bay and take Penix
I love this battle plan and will be surprised if one of these NFL teams does not execute it come Draft Day
I know WR is deep but there are some clear differences between the prospects.
Max Power
Footballguy
I think Maye has bigger warts than JJ. After watching Anthony Richardson go #4 last year due to his "tools" after a terrible college career, I don't see why teams would hold JJ's college career against him after they see what he brings to the table.
The Brady - McCarthy would be a cool story too.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Eisen and Jeremiah interviewed him at the Combine and I came away from that thinking, "damn, teams are going to freaking love him." We've seen it a million times. Teams getting enamored with traits, intangibles, and tools. Putting much more weight on those things than production. Especially at QB. It's nice to have gaudy production numbers, but ultimately it's meaningless. Bust after bust after bust with eye popping college passing numbers.
Birdie048
Footballguy
refacer
Footballguy
I think New England would be the worse place for JJ, he is not Brady and would have to contend with Brady’s legend.
Vikings paying #11 and #23 is my guess. They've backed themselves into a corner, and unless they like Nix/Penix at #23 I think they'll be aggressive about moving up. You and I see Penix pretty differently, I think he's the QB6 in this class, and I'd be shocked if he went round 1 with his injury history.
I do think Nix/Penix go early round 2, likely one of them to Vegas. I'm starting to think Denver might legitimately go with Stidham, and like Ryan Tannehill or someone like that.
I think the Cards don't view themselves as contenders yet and are rebuilding from the ground up other than QB. I think having 3 1st round picks would have a higher appeal to them than adding a top WR. Not 100% sure I'd do that, as I think Harrison is the best WR prospect in 17 years, but I get it.
rockaction
Footballguy
Where's the third coming from?
They have Houston's pick from the Will Anderson deal last year.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
This is only the 2nd year I've put an emphasis on watching QBs (least as much as I watch WRs and RBs), and I just don't see it from the fantasy angle. To me JJ looked at his best out of structure, in scramble drill type plays; which is a great trait not a lot of other QBs possess. But honestly looked average to below average most of the rest of the time. It was really hard with Michagans offense, and I could totally understand arguments that their game plan and play calling limited him in that system. But nearly anything over 10 yards seemed like a struggle except those digs/curls/slants and only when rolling out to the right side (the left was atrocious). He did hit some real nice deep shots down the middle when he needed to, but outside the numbers looked to miss more than he hit. This was more glaring in tight coverage too. Arm strength great, but fitting the ball into tighter windows seemed rough. And when employing that arm strength, it seemed to take a looonggg time to get through the wind up and release. At least when he was in the pocket; again, it almost seemed easier for him to do when on the run after a breakdown. Where you'd think the opposite would be the norm.
If his entire game were his highlights, I see the hype. And again, I get that he was limited in that system, so I can see people positing that the highlight tape should be longer. But as of now, for projecting fantasy production; I have him behind the other 3 QBs I've watched so far (Williams, Maye, Daniels). And I wouldn't be surprised to like Penix more when I get to him just based on what I know so far. Right now I see his favorable outcome as 2023 Baker tbh, which isn't bad at all. But not enough to have me looking to take him in the top 5 of SF drafts. And with the growing popularity of mocking him to the Patriots/Giants.... woof.
A question for the Michigan fans who've been watching him pre-combine; how much weight did he add to get to 219? Because in the cut ups I've been watching he looks pretty slender, and trying to find his weight previously I saw a lot of 203/204lb listings. Players can certainly bulk up, and hopefully what he added was good weight that whatever team drafts him can help him keep that weight on throughout the season. But he did not look that size to me at all in actual gameplay. To his credit, he did seem to PLAY above his weight class; not scared to take a hit and a few times sacrificed himself to make a good throw. So I wouldn't say his weight is a knock, on the flip side though I'd hesitate to throw out 219lbs as a plus for him when it seems pretty far off from his actual play weight during college.
If his entire game were his highlights, I see the hype. And again, I get that he was limited in that system, so I can see people positing that the highlight tape should be longer. But as of now, for projecting fantasy production; I have him behind the other 3 QBs I've watched so far (Williams, Maye, Daniels). And I wouldn't be surprised to like Penix more when I get to him just based on what I know so far. Right now I see his favorable outcome as 2023 Baker tbh, which isn't bad at all. But not enough to have me looking to take him in the top 5 of SF drafts. And with the growing popularity of mocking him to the Patriots/Giants.... woof.
A question for the Michigan fans who've been watching him pre-combine; how much weight did he add to get to 219? Because in the cut ups I've been watching he looks pretty slender, and trying to find his weight previously I saw a lot of 203/204lb listings. Players can certainly bulk up, and hopefully what he added was good weight that whatever team drafts him can help him keep that weight on throughout the season. But he did not look that size to me at all in actual gameplay. To his credit, he did seem to PLAY above his weight class; not scared to take a hit and a few times sacrificed himself to make a good throw. So I wouldn't say his weight is a knock, on the flip side though I'd hesitate to throw out 219lbs as a plus for him when it seems pretty far off from his actual play weight during college.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I go back and forth on him. He’s super young, just turned 21 and he’s got a cannon for an arm, you see that on tape and clocked 61 mph at the combine. Personally think he’s who the Patriots are looking at with the 1.03.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Blasphemy!
-I was taken to the woodshed for insinuating this guy was a little on the thin side or taking Ozempic, I originally saw 195, maybe that was his weight pre-Michigan
-I highlighted that he wasn't asked to do a whole lot for the Wolverines and they sometimes might go an entire Half without throwing a pass, that's never gonna happen in the NFL
Be careful Pink, you might want to find cover
Chaos34
Footballguy
markrc99
Footballguy
Probably just me but odd I think. Going back and I could be mistaken but the combine was always said to be where measurement inflation hit reality. But here with McCarthy, Jonathon Brooks as well, players listed as being lighter than they actually are. I assume you're seeking an accurate weight because if it's a little over 200lbs, that seems like a lot of meat to have been added in a short period of time. This is of course, having done it naturally.
I do like Drake Maye but after looking at some Bo Nix tape & reading his rookie guide profile here & at draft tracker, I'm now in favor of any of the top three (CHI, NE, WAS) trading down, amassing to themself a boatload of draft capital & taking Nix. I just question how much later he'll be available. My guess is that the team that trades with Minnesota takes him at pick 11. Forgotten who & where, but on this forum, you trade back, rake the gold & take one of the QBs down the order & if it doesn't work, you come back & target QB again next year. The potential upside is immense & risk, low.
Throwing it out there, but I think there is very much a chance that the Vikings are done trading up and are targeting Penix or preferably Nix at #23.
I do wonder if the Cardinals or especially the Chargers will want to pass on a top-end playmaker at WR that absolutely won't be there at #11.
McCarthy to the Giants might be an interesting fit.
I do wonder if the Cardinals or especially the Chargers will want to pass on a top-end playmaker at WR that absolutely won't be there at #11.
McCarthy to the Giants might be an interesting fit.
BigJim®
Footballguy
No doubt this will be the public stance if they are unable to move up and need to go to plan E. I doubt it is that way behind the curtain though.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Nix won't make it past Denver at 12
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
My casual slob opinion is that I can't believe this guy has crept into the first round, let alone a Top 10 or even Top 5 pick consideration.
Erratic accuracy outside the numbers and trouble getting off his first read are just no-gos for me when you're burning that draft capital. I see these analyses saying "just give him a year to fix his footwork etc." and I'm like, good luck with that.
Then consider you'd be taking him over the closest thing you'll ever get to a sure-thing WR in Harrison? Sheer madness.
Erratic accuracy outside the numbers and trouble getting off his first read are just no-gos for me when you're burning that draft capital. I see these analyses saying "just give him a year to fix his footwork etc." and I'm like, good luck with that.
Then consider you'd be taking him over the closest thing you'll ever get to a sure-thing WR in Harrison? Sheer madness.
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