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QB Michael Penix Jr., ATL (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Chaos34
Footballguy
The only hate I see here is the stuff from Klassen. Don't soak in the messenger. I don't hate Penix. I'm almost settled on Daniels as qb2, after that I don't care how the next 4 cards are shuffled. I currently prefer Maye to Penix with zero percent degree of confidence. Pointing out the difference in the talent the two had to play with isn't hating on Penix. It just is what it is.
Boston
Footballguy
It is draft-season...this stuff happens all the time...what I don't get is why people get so worked up (in a good way and a bad way based on one's own biases) by the opinions of people who don't know any more than many of the posters on this board...these people do NOT work for NFL teams.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Good stuff, thanks for the detailed reply. I didn't see much of Maye but was not impressed with his overall resume looking at his numbers. I saw a TON of Caleb and Penix, so came away mightily impressed. Caleb is the closest thing the college game has produced to Mahomes and nothing will dissuade me from that position. He's generational. Penix just parks the ball in his receivers hands; least, that's my take away.
Time will tell, but I'm avoiding Maye at all costs.
Chaos34
Footballguy
Fwiw, if I had to start one these two next season, give me Penix.
Big Nate
Footballguy
With the needs at QB I could see Penix going end of 1st round rookie drafts in SF.
I could always use another QB and I have 1.12. I could see myself taking a stab at QB with 1.12. He can chuck the ball and he's likely going to an NFL team that needs a QB. If he has to sit behind a vet QB for a bit that isn't a bad thing either.
massraider
Footballguy
In general, I really want to tune out these guys who are standing on the table for a guy, or constantly throwing shade at a guy.
You get to a point where someone crosses over from analyst, to content creator. Well, ONLY content creator.
Boston
Footballguy
Agreed...I hate when someone thinks they are 100% right...these players all have upside and downside scenarios and someone can think it leans heavily towards one side (and be correct by the way) but I have zero respect for your opinion once you become the all-knowing football guru from the comfort of your basement.
When I was first watching Penix, I thought of Tua, but the more I watched, the less I liked that comp. Tua is a MUCH more accurate passer, though I will agree with Penix having a stronger arm.
With his sort of surprise 4.5 40 time, I'm starting to see a little Geno Smith. I know that might sound like an insult to some but its not. Imagine if current Geno Smith were 10 years younger.
Faust
MVP
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Big Nate
Footballguy
If Penix goes to the Raiders at 13 where does he go in rookie drafts? How early in the first round?
The Raiders could likely move back a bit in the first and still pick up Penix. I guess the Penix/Nix guessing/waiting game will be a tough one for teams like the Raiders, Broncos and even Seattle... who will bite first. Who is worried about getting sniped. Vikings in the mix too if they don't move up and miss out on the top 4.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Given the quality of this WR class, I think late rd 1 is a mistake (just about) regardless of when and where he goes.
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Big Nate
Footballguy
Will be interesting to see who is still there at the end of the first. The thought with QB is that if the hit they are worth a fortune in SF leagues. Even if he ends up a solid/top end QB 2 (Say ranked 13-15) for the next 8-10 years you are sitting pretty. They will outscore most WRs unless the WR hits top 5 consistently.
The QB that hits has great value and always tradeable.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
A Letter to NFL GMs by Michael Penix
Not exactly revealing new details to help with your fantasy football decisions, but a great read by my measure. After reading/watching so much on Caleb the past few weeks, almost felt like a mini shot across the bow with regards to what it was growing up in Dade City FL. and not having access to nutritionists, personal trainers, a private apartment, etc. in high school. Or maybe I'm just in full on draft mode making up story lines like we are gearing up for WrestleMania lol. I do think he ended the letter on a banger though:
"So I have no problem taking all the MRI’s and X-rays you ask of me.
Truth is, it’s an EKG that will tell you everything you need to know about me."
If that doesn't pump ya up for Thursday, don't know what will.
Not exactly revealing new details to help with your fantasy football decisions, but a great read by my measure. After reading/watching so much on Caleb the past few weeks, almost felt like a mini shot across the bow with regards to what it was growing up in Dade City FL. and not having access to nutritionists, personal trainers, a private apartment, etc. in high school. Or maybe I'm just in full on draft mode making up story lines like we are gearing up for WrestleMania lol. I do think he ended the letter on a banger though:
"So I have no problem taking all the MRI’s and X-rays you ask of me.
Truth is, it’s an EKG that will tell you everything you need to know about me."
If that doesn't pump ya up for Thursday, don't know what will.
Its a good line, if he were a pro wrestler I guess. As an NFL player, its meaningless. Lots of guys with heart have failed because of injuries, or talent issues.
I'm thinking Vegas is Penix's spot at the moment. This idea that teams can trade down for him or Nix aren't likely to work in my opinion. Fully expecting 6 QBs in the top-14.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Yeah was def. a puff piece, but pretty solid to be self written. And nice to see a little edge. It also doesn't hurt I'm a Penix fan, though the JJ praise has been wearing me down to the point where they are pretty much neck and neck for my #3 spot. I honestly do not love these QBs for how hyped this class has been. Now if you could bottle JJs attitude/leadership/intangibles and have Caleb consume them on a daily basis, then I think I'd be hyped for him. But as it sits, still kinda ho-hum for me as far as talent goes outside Williams; and while all the smoke around character issues tend to be overblown at other positions IMO, they are something I don't love seeing attached to a QB.
I'm hoping Penix takes a tumble down to the Vikings, and sits behind Darnold for at least half a season, if not a full one. I think that will be a great landing spot with an offense that will play to his talents, has an elite WR1 and (when healthy) a top 5 TE as weapons to learn with, and a QB in Darnold who is good enough to float the team and help train up Penix and get him to NFL speed. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be the case. He'll likely go earlier, and will likely be thrust into an immediate starting role, which I don't think any of these QBs outside Williams are really built to do right now.
Not to derail, but I haven't seen a single REAL character concern for Caleb Williams. He's an ideal leader from all accounts of coaches and players who played with him.
I would think Penix (really any of the top-6 QBs) would be REALLY hard to sit behind Darnold.
I've got a sizeable drop off after Williams and Maye. I probably like Penix the least, but 3-6 is pretty hair splitting to me. I think all 6 are NFL starters.
Chaos34
Footballguy
A few days ago I stopped looking at mocks and big boards and caring about expert grades, etc. Instead I read a bunch of these (they're on that site) and I started watching as many interviews as I had time for. Ain't no way these are self written. I'm sure they get help. I'm sure their agents guide them with what to say. They're all good reading, and I really enjoy learning about their journeys, but you can't convince me they're writing these without guidance, editing, proof reading, etc.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Right, but what's the hit rate on QB's drafted 15-60 in the rookie scale era? There's a point when this low probability hit is optimal to skill positions, but I don't think it's anywhere near the end of rd 1.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Maybe
I didn't read any other than this one. He is a college grad who majored in sports marketing and management. And it's a pretty basic letter that's more or less a resume cover letter "to potential future employers" with some frilly trappings most high school students have previously written as a prompt, let alone college students. Not exactly the lost epilogue of Anna Karenina.
Boston
Footballguy
100%
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Don't really care to debate the CW red flags; it's all speculative and can be rationalized either as negative or complete nothing-burgers by anyone. Just my opinion on the decisions he's made and how he's communicated them through the process these past few months, along with everything I've read about his father and his total enmeshment with CWs career. I'd prefer none of that was there but at the same time none of it is keeping him out of the 1.02 spot in my SF ranks, potentially 1.01 if Jayden Daniels falls unexpectedly.
I think just about every successful QB of the past decade + has sat, whether it's a few games, half a season, a full season; and the ones who don't either flop or take a long time to adjust. And most of those only were able to adjust because they were surrounded by excellent supporting weapons on offense and a great coaching staff. Thinking most of these guys would greatly benefit from sitting to start their careers isn't me saying they aren't capable of eventually becoming NFL starters, but that it would be much more beneficial to their growth to do so. Because looking at all the QBs (I'll again give CW a bit of a pass as being ahead of the pack talent wise), projecting them to success in the NFL is also projecting them to continue improving their game. If they don't get better than they currently are, none of them will be starters for long. None are so talented they can just walk in and succeed IMO. I think the quickest and most efficient path to that growth is not being thrown in the fire on day 1. And parsing the situation down further, none of the landing spots aside from the Vikings are all that well set up for success with weapons/o line/staffs that have proven competence.
Big Nate
Footballguy
QBs are the hardest to acquire in SF, especially ones that are producing. If Penix gets first round capital (means hes going to a team that needs a QB, or even early 2nd) and can be had for "cheap" in rookie drafts compared to the other top 4 then I'd be willing to give it a shot.
Now, if we want to talk about first round WR busts the list is long.... This is the reality in fantasy drafts. Looking back there are a lot of busts in the first round. Can you guarantee the 5th-6th-7th WR off teh board will hit? Nope. Who is more valuable in a SF league?
Question - in SF right now who is worth more? Levis or Quinton Johnson/Jameson Williams/Dotson/Toney/Bateman (and the list goes on)? If Penix has a starting job next year he still has value in SF if you really need to get out. Even Bryce Young who had a bust of a first season is still worth something right now. I have Young and am getting offers for him as we speak.
Penix may very well bust out but so could the WR taken at 1.12. QBs are harder to find and this is a rookie draft where someone picking late 1st can actually get a potential starting QB.
There are warts on all the WRs after the first 3. I don't have all the answers, no doubt its a tough decision at 1.12, but the WRs sitting there aren't guaranteed to hit. Taking the first RB (Brooks/Benson/Corum) off the board could be a decent option but again it all comes down to SF and the QB position being so valuable.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I'd compare the 2nd tier of WR's in this crop to the 1st tier in 2020. Are there warts? Of course, otherwise they'd be top 10 picks - anyone talking guarantees with any of them is a damn fool. But this group is both deep and talented. Also, as you mentioned, there may also be stronger cases for RB than there is right now - capital and situation will heavily influence whether the first handful or so may fit ~1.12 or more like ~2.12.
Penix makes sense once you get through all of ^^^them. Don't know if that's ~mid 2nd or ~early 3rd, but it's not ~late 1st. In a weaker class like last year (see Will Levis), sure, but unless the Vikings prioritize him rd 1 what scenario plays out that results in him rightfully firing up the board? He doesn't have the ability to elevate a mediocre or worse supporting cast and that's the case for most others in pursuit of a QB. I'll be most optimistic in his potential future development if he follows the Jordan Love path on a stronger team...and I'd be happy to pay a 2020 Jordan Love price to get him.
Big Nate
Footballguy
@MAC_32 I wil respond this way, the quotes were getting too long for my liking. I 100% hear what you are saying but there is risk at the WR spot, especially with guys like Franklin, Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy. I get 1 pick and it isn't guaranteed it works out. If you can tell me which guy will 100% workout then I'm all ears.
If I'm looking at my dynasty league where QBs have great value, and are hard to acquire, then taking a QB there makes sense. Yes they might not work out but no guarantee the WR does either. I'll be honest, after the top 3 WRs they are all a coin flip IMO. Things can change after the NFL draft with values rising and falling but I usually lean on the QB coin flip than the WR coin flip.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think where we aren't aligning is you're using phrases like 'guarantee' and '100%' whereas I intentionally wrote the following:
'...there's a point when this low probability hit is optimal to skill positions'
But why do they put a guarantee on the box?
Because they know all they sold ya was a guaranteed piece of ****. That's all it is, isn't it? Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your customer's sake, for your daughter's sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from me.
---
There's nothing guaranteed about the 2nd tier of this WR class just like there isn't a guarantee about anyone from tier 1 in a normal class (this one too for that matter). Is Penix 50/50? and is everyone from that 2nd tier of WR's 50/50? If that's where you are with your coin flip commentary then I strongly disagree. Short of the Vikes prioritizing him scenario I'd put Penix at either a probability quite a bit less than 50% or a long wait. How's that measure against higher probability hits at skill positions? We'll see on an individual basis come Friday night, but I think it's crazy to suggest everyone in that entire tier will just be a coin flip.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Fair enough on the guarantee part. I'm still not sold on the the WRs after the first 3-4. I'd take a flyer on Thomas for sure but after that I see it as a coin flip as so many don't work out. Same with QBs, even first rounders don't always work out.
What I do know though is in SF, QBs are more valuable. Starting QBs are worth a lot and elite QBs are worth gold. If Penix is drafted to a team that needs a QB he will get a start and that ensures fantasy value as long as he is the starter. Levis wasn't even a high draft pick but hes a starter and he's worth something right now. If you wanted to get out on Levis you still can and get something for him.
That is all I'm saying here - we play a game where players have values. If a QB is a starter (doesn't even have to be good) he has value. At the end of the first round (say 1.12) taking a guy like Penix will hold that value until he's no longer a starter. Even if he sits for a half year or a full year, as soon as he looks to be the starter (and he will 100% get some starts) you can at minimum unload him.
It is all about QB vs WR value in SF. If I knew there was a WR that would hit I would take him at 1.12 but since I don't the safer play to ensure value is probably the QB there.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Ok fun exercise here with Penix in SF leagues (Pre-NFL draft). Where do you rank Penix in the following list of players for rookie drafts:
B. Thomas Jr
JJ McCarthy
X Worthy
A Mitchell
Franklin
Brooks
Benson
McConkey
Personally I'd take BTJ for sure and maybe McCarthy. It wouldn't surprise me though if Penix has a better fantasy career than McCarthy. In my mind I'm taking JJ over Penix only due to draft capital. Again we are taking fantasy purposes here.
I may take Brooks over Penix as the talent and production was there pre-injury. Brooks is so young still that we can afford to wait on him.
Now comes the list of question marks at WR. Worth, Mitchell and Franklin all have a significant issue that could hold them back. All extremely talented players but by no means are they going to be a hit in the NFL. McConkey might be the best route runner but landing spot and draft capital will be huge here, likely pushing him back.
So as it stands now BTJ, maybe McCarthy and maybe Brooks. I really want to have Worthy just for the possible upside but he has boom/bust written on him. Otherwise Penix comes into the equation for me.
Curious how others rank him in this list of players. Again things will change with the NFL draft but here are my thoughts going in.
B. Thomas Jr
JJ McCarthy
X Worthy
A Mitchell
Franklin
Brooks
Benson
McConkey
Personally I'd take BTJ for sure and maybe McCarthy. It wouldn't surprise me though if Penix has a better fantasy career than McCarthy. In my mind I'm taking JJ over Penix only due to draft capital. Again we are taking fantasy purposes here.
I may take Brooks over Penix as the talent and production was there pre-injury. Brooks is so young still that we can afford to wait on him.
Now comes the list of question marks at WR. Worth, Mitchell and Franklin all have a significant issue that could hold them back. All extremely talented players but by no means are they going to be a hit in the NFL. McConkey might be the best route runner but landing spot and draft capital will be huge here, likely pushing him back.
So as it stands now BTJ, maybe McCarthy and maybe Brooks. I really want to have Worthy just for the possible upside but he has boom/bust written on him. Otherwise Penix comes into the equation for me.
Curious how others rank him in this list of players. Again things will change with the NFL draft but here are my thoughts going in.
Faust
MVP
Nice call, JohnnyNostradamUs
The Future Champs
Footballguy
I assume they hope to ditch Cousins so they can afford to resign their young talent in the next couple of years.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
can they get out of cousins after 2?
Truebluey
Footballguy
Ouch.
I'll take the L.
jabarony
Footballguy
Can they get out of Penix after 2?
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