Soaking in as much Penix hate as I can....
Awaiting a team getting mauled for "reaching" for him early/mid 1st round....
Awaiting the rise of the Penix. (I'm tradmarking that, btw)
Soaking in as much Penix hate as I can....
Awaiting a team getting mauled for "reaching" for him early/mid 1st round....
Awaiting the rise of the Penix. (I'm tradmarking that, btw)
NFL on Fox Podcast
Michael Penix Jr. passed all of his tests and looks great, but is his health a concern?
@CarmieV discusses🎙: link.chtbl.com/xP34cduB
Carmen Vitali
Both @davidhelman_ and I think Michael Penix Jr. could very well be a first-round pick but multiple knee surgeries is probably enough to knock him out of the top tier of QBs in this class.
David Helman
MPJ @ 13 overall: yep, makes sense
MPJ @ 47 overall: yep! makes sense!
If Maye couldn't dominate the weak sauce ACC the way Penix and Nix dominated the much stronger Pac-12 what sort of chance does he stand in the NFL? Didn't he have 2 games in '23 with 50% completion? That's awful.
By this thinking Penix and Nix must be better than Caleb too? Maye had a crap OL, one decent wr who may stick in the nfl but it's probably as a special teamer. While Penix stood tall with little pressure, Maye got sacked over and over again. Penix played with an elite LT who will be drafted in the 1st round and an excellent RT who will be an NFL starter for years. He also had a massive and dominant guard (Kalepo) who was an underclassmen but will certainly be starting in the NFl in a couple years. Penix had an elite alpha wr and two more who will be drafted in rds 2/3 and be eventual NFL starters. Not mentioned much, but Penix also had a very good receiving TE (Culp) who ran 4.47 at the combine and is probably going to make an NFL roster. Penix also had an Rb Waldman ranks 5th in this class. Penix also had a great offensive coordinator who's now with the Seahawks. It's a team game and he led an awesome offense. That doesn't make him better than freak talents who weren't so fortunate, like Drake and Caleb.
Fwiw, if I had to start one these two next season, give me Penix.If Maye couldn't dominate the weak sauce ACC the way Penix and Nix dominated the much stronger Pac-12 what sort of chance does he stand in the NFL? Didn't he have 2 games in '23 with 50% completion? That's awful.
By this thinking Penix and Nix must be better than Caleb too? Maye had a crap OL, one decent wr who may stick in the nfl but it's probably as a special teamer. While Penix stood tall with little pressure, Maye got sacked over and over again. Penix played with an elite LT who will be drafted in the 1st round and an excellent RT who will be an NFL starter for years. He also had a massive and dominant guard (Kalepo) who was an underclassmen but will certainly be starting in the NFl in a couple years. Penix had an elite alpha wr and two more who will be drafted in rds 2/3 and be eventual NFL starters. Not mentioned much, but Penix also had a very good receiving TE (Culp) who ran 4.47 at the combine and is probably going to make an NFL roster. Penix also had an Rb Waldman ranks 5th in this class. Penix also had a great offensive coordinator who's now with the Seahawks. It's a team game and he led an awesome offense. That doesn't make him better than freak talents who weren't so fortunate, like Drake and Caleb.
Good stuff, thanks for the detailed reply. I didn't see much of Maye but was not impressed with his overall resume looking at his numbers. I saw a TON of Caleb and Penix, so came away mightily impressed. Caleb is the closest thing the college game has produced to Mahomes and nothing will dissuade me from that position. He's generational. Penix just parks the ball in his receivers hands; least, that's my take away.
Time will tell, but I'm avoiding Maye at all costs.
With the needs at QB I could see Penix going end of 1st round rookie drafts in SF.Probably a 3rd or 4th round pick in start 1QB leagues and a 2nd round pick in SF.
In general, I really want to tune out these guys who are standing on the table for a guy, or constantly throwing shade at a guy.It is draft-season...this stuff happens all the time...what I don't get is why people get so worked up (in a good way and a bad way based on one's own biases) by the opinions of people who don't know any more than many of the posters on this board...these people do NOT work for NFL teams.
In general, I really want to tune out these guys who are standing on the table for a guy, or constantly throwing shade at a guy.It is draft-season...this stuff happens all the time...what I don't get is why people get so worked up (in a good way and a bad way based on one's own biases) by the opinions of people who don't know any more than many of the posters on this board...these people do NOT work for NFL teams.
You get to a point where someone crosses over from analyst, to content creator. Well, ONLY content creator.
Ian Rapoport
#Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. is set to have dinner with #Patriots brass and coaches tonight in Foxboro, and he has a Top 30 visit tomorrow, sources say. New England continued to do all the QB homework…
When I was first watching Penix, I thought of Tua, but the more I watched, the less I liked that comp. Tua is a MUCH more accurate passer, though I will agree with Penix having a stronger arm.
Benjamin Solak
Hello my quarterback charting is live on the Ringer NFL Draft guide: nfldraft.theringer.com
Here's JJ McCarthy throwing to his left and Jayden Daniels responding to pressure and Drake Maye being more accurate out of the pocket than in it
There's a lot of cool stuff in here!
Sigmund Bloom
what numbers surprised you the most?
Benjamin Solak
Penix accuracy is one of the worst I've charted in the last few years. He's a classic example of a generally accurate, but not really precise passer. His receivers bailed him out so much.
Lance Zierlein
This is way more accurate than people realize. Ironically, his Texas game was the best game for a QB I scouted all year and that was filled with great placement. But in general, a little less accurate than expected.
Mina Kimes
Such an interesting case bc most of America saw versions of him vs Texas and Michigan that were...both different from who he mostly was!
Lance Zierlein
The Texas game was the best game for any QB this year. But it also wasn't the clear lens picture of who he was on tape. That was jarring for me and why he ended up 6th on my QB list. Really struggles when forced to move out of the pocket and bailed by big WRs winning 50/50 balls
Benjamin Solak
He was great for that offense (trust the receivers, attack downfield, throw catchable footballs) and that offense was great for him! I can see Penix being successful in the league but he really needs elite weapons.
Lance Zierlein
Well he also needs the right offensive concepts too potentially. I watch tape from all the angles you probably charted:
* rollouts and scrambles
* redzone
* IM and deep throws
* zone vs. man coverages
* pressure vs. clean
Some of those throws will be in danger in the pros.
Benjamin Solak
Yes sir. Big dropoff for me in accuracy under a lot of contexts. Another one I charted but didn't add: drop depth. Very accurate on one-step drops (read: RPO stuff) but big dropoff on longer dropbacks (more of their PA/pro stuff)
Matt Harmon
The team and player are often linked but if the Raiders really like QB Michael Penix, @MoveTheSticks isn't so sure they can risk sliding back behind the Seahawks to try and grab him.
Las Vegas is a fascinating QB team to watch next week.
If Penix goes to the Raiders at 13 where does he go in rookie drafts? How early in the first round?
Given the quality of this WR class, I think late rd 1 is a mistake (just about) regardless of when and where he goes.With the needs at QB I could see Penix going end of 1st round rookie drafts in SF.Probably a 3rd or 4th round pick in start 1QB leagues and a 2nd round pick in SF.
I could always use another QB and I have 1.12. I could see myself taking a stab at QB with 1.12. He can chuck the ball and he's likely going to an NFL team that needs a QB. If he has to sit behind a vet QB for a bit that isn't a bad thing either.
Will be interesting to see who is still there at the end of the first. The thought with QB is that if the hit they are worth a fortune in SF leagues. Even if he ends up a solid/top end QB 2 (Say ranked 13-15) for the next 8-10 years you are sitting pretty. They will outscore most WRs unless the WR hits top 5 consistently.Given the quality of this WR class, I think late rd 1 is a mistake (just about) regardless of when and where he goes.With the needs at QB I could see Penix going end of 1st round rookie drafts in SF.Probably a 3rd or 4th round pick in start 1QB leagues and a 2nd round pick in SF.
I could always use another QB and I have 1.12. I could see myself taking a stab at QB with 1.12. He can chuck the ball and he's likely going to an NFL team that needs a QB. If he has to sit behind a vet QB for a bit that isn't a bad thing either.
Its a good line, if he were a pro wrestler I guess. As an NFL player, its meaningless. Lots of guys with heart have failed because of injuries, or talent issues.A Letter to NFL GMs by Michael Penix
Not exactly revealing new details to help with your fantasy football decisions, but a great read by my measure. After reading/watching so much on Caleb the past few weeks, almost felt like a mini shot across the bow with regards to what it was growing up in Dade City FL. and not having access to nutritionists, personal trainers, a private apartment, etc. in high school. Or maybe I'm just in full on draft mode making up story lines like we are gearing up for WrestleMania lol. I do think he ended the letter on a banger though:
"So I have no problem taking all the MRI’s and X-rays you ask of me.
Truth is, it’s an EKG that will tell you everything you need to know about me."
If that doesn't pump ya up for Thursday, don't know what will.
Yeah was def. a puff piece, but pretty solid to be self written. And nice to see a little edge. It also doesn't hurt I'm a Penix fan, though the JJ praise has been wearing me down to the point where they are pretty much neck and neck for my #3 spot. I honestly do not love these QBs for how hyped this class has been. Now if you could bottle JJs attitude/leadership/intangibles and have Caleb consume them on a daily basis, then I think I'd be hyped for him. But as it sits, still kinda ho-hum for me as far as talent goes outside Williams; and while all the smoke around character issues tend to be overblown at other positions IMO, they are something I don't love seeing attached to a QB.Its a good line, if he were a pro wrestler I guess. As an NFL player, its meaningless. Lots of guys with heart have failed because of injuries, or talent issues.A Letter to NFL GMs by Michael Penix
Not exactly revealing new details to help with your fantasy football decisions, but a great read by my measure. After reading/watching so much on Caleb the past few weeks, almost felt like a mini shot across the bow with regards to what it was growing up in Dade City FL. and not having access to nutritionists, personal trainers, a private apartment, etc. in high school. Or maybe I'm just in full on draft mode making up story lines like we are gearing up for WrestleMania lol. I do think he ended the letter on a banger though:
"So I have no problem taking all the MRI’s and X-rays you ask of me.
Truth is, it’s an EKG that will tell you everything you need to know about me."
If that doesn't pump ya up for Thursday, don't know what will.
I'm thinking Vegas is Penix's spot at the moment. This idea that teams can trade down for him or Nix aren't likely to work in my opinion. Fully expecting 6 QBs in the top-14.
Not to derail, but I haven't seen a single REAL character concern for Caleb Williams. He's an ideal leader from all accounts of coaches and players who played with him.Yeah was def. a puff piece, but pretty solid to be self written. And nice to see a little edge. It also doesn't hurt I'm a Penix fan, though the JJ praise has been wearing me down to the point where they are pretty much neck and neck for my #3 spot. I honestly do not love these QBs for how hyped this class has been. Now if you could bottle JJs attitude/leadership/intangibles and have Caleb consume them on a daily basis, then I think I'd be hyped for him. But as it sits, still kinda ho-hum for me as far as talent goes outside Williams; and while all the smoke around character issues tend to be overblown at other positions IMO, they are something I don't love seeing attached to a QB.Its a good line, if he were a pro wrestler I guess. As an NFL player, its meaningless. Lots of guys with heart have failed because of injuries, or talent issues.A Letter to NFL GMs by Michael Penix
Not exactly revealing new details to help with your fantasy football decisions, but a great read by my measure. After reading/watching so much on Caleb the past few weeks, almost felt like a mini shot across the bow with regards to what it was growing up in Dade City FL. and not having access to nutritionists, personal trainers, a private apartment, etc. in high school. Or maybe I'm just in full on draft mode making up story lines like we are gearing up for WrestleMania lol. I do think he ended the letter on a banger though:
"So I have no problem taking all the MRI’s and X-rays you ask of me.
Truth is, it’s an EKG that will tell you everything you need to know about me."
If that doesn't pump ya up for Thursday, don't know what will.
I'm thinking Vegas is Penix's spot at the moment. This idea that teams can trade down for him or Nix aren't likely to work in my opinion. Fully expecting 6 QBs in the top-14.
I'm hoping Penix takes a tumble down to the Vikings, and sits behind Darnold for at least half a season, if not a full one. I think that will be a great landing spot with an offense that will play to his talents, has an elite WR1 and (when healthy) a top 5 TE as weapons to learn with, and a QB in Darnold who is good enough to float the team and help train up Penix and get him to NFL speed. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be the case. He'll likely go earlier, and will likely be thrust into an immediate starting role, which I don't think any of these QBs outside Williams are really built to do right now.
Yeah was def. a puff piece, but pretty solid to be self written.
Right, but what's the hit rate on QB's drafted 15-60 in the rookie scale era? There's a point when this low probability hit is optimal to skill positions, but I don't think it's anywhere near the end of rd 1.Will be interesting to see who is still there at the end of the first. The thought with QB is that if the hit they are worth a fortune in SF leagues. Even if he ends up a solid/top end QB 2 (Say ranked 13-15) for the next 8-10 years you are sitting pretty. They will outscore most WRs unless the WR hits top 5 consistently.Given the quality of this WR class, I think late rd 1 is a mistake (just about) regardless of when and where he goes.With the needs at QB I could see Penix going end of 1st round rookie drafts in SF.Probably a 3rd or 4th round pick in start 1QB leagues and a 2nd round pick in SF.
I could always use another QB and I have 1.12. I could see myself taking a stab at QB with 1.12. He can chuck the ball and he's likely going to an NFL team that needs a QB. If he has to sit behind a vet QB for a bit that isn't a bad thing either.
The QB that hits has great value and always tradeable.
Maybe I didn't read any other than this one. He is a college grad who majored in sports marketing and management. And it's a pretty basic letter that's more or less a resume cover letter "to potential future employers" with some frilly trappings most high school students have previously written as a prompt, let alone college students. Not exactly the lost epilogue of Anna Karenina.Yeah was def. a puff piece, but pretty solid to be self written.
A few days ago I stopped looking at mocks and big boards and caring about expert grades, etc. Instead I read a bunch of these (they're on that site) and I started watching as many interviews as I had time for. Ain't no way these are self written. I'm sure they get help. I'm sure their agents guide them with what to say. They're all good reading, and I really enjoy learning about their journeys, but you can't convince me they're writing these without guidance, editing, proof reading, etc.
Yeah was def. a puff piece, but pretty solid to be self written.
A few days ago I stopped looking at mocks and big boards and caring about expert grades, etc. Instead I read a bunch of these (they're on that site) and I started watching as many interviews as I had time for. Ain't no way these are self written. I'm sure they get help. I'm sure their agents guide them with what to say. They're all good reading, and I really enjoy learning about their journeys, but you can't convince me they're writing these without guidance, editing, proof reading, etc.
Don't really care to debate the CW red flags; it's all speculative and can be rationalized either as negative or complete nothing-burgers by anyone. Just my opinion on the decisions he's made and how he's communicated them through the process these past few months, along with everything I've read about his father and his total enmeshment with CWs career. I'd prefer none of that was there but at the same time none of it is keeping him out of the 1.02 spot in my SF ranks, potentially 1.01 if Jayden Daniels falls unexpectedly.Not to derail, but I haven't seen a single REAL character concern for Caleb Williams. He's an ideal leader from all accounts of coaches and players who played with him.Yeah was def. a puff piece, but pretty solid to be self written. And nice to see a little edge. It also doesn't hurt I'm a Penix fan, though the JJ praise has been wearing me down to the point where they are pretty much neck and neck for my #3 spot. I honestly do not love these QBs for how hyped this class has been. Now if you could bottle JJs attitude/leadership/intangibles and have Caleb consume them on a daily basis, then I think I'd be hyped for him. But as it sits, still kinda ho-hum for me as far as talent goes outside Williams; and while all the smoke around character issues tend to be overblown at other positions IMO, they are something I don't love seeing attached to a QB.Its a good line, if he were a pro wrestler I guess. As an NFL player, its meaningless. Lots of guys with heart have failed because of injuries, or talent issues.A Letter to NFL GMs by Michael Penix
Not exactly revealing new details to help with your fantasy football decisions, but a great read by my measure. After reading/watching so much on Caleb the past few weeks, almost felt like a mini shot across the bow with regards to what it was growing up in Dade City FL. and not having access to nutritionists, personal trainers, a private apartment, etc. in high school. Or maybe I'm just in full on draft mode making up story lines like we are gearing up for WrestleMania lol. I do think he ended the letter on a banger though:
"So I have no problem taking all the MRI’s and X-rays you ask of me.
Truth is, it’s an EKG that will tell you everything you need to know about me."
If that doesn't pump ya up for Thursday, don't know what will.
I'm thinking Vegas is Penix's spot at the moment. This idea that teams can trade down for him or Nix aren't likely to work in my opinion. Fully expecting 6 QBs in the top-14.
I'm hoping Penix takes a tumble down to the Vikings, and sits behind Darnold for at least half a season, if not a full one. I think that will be a great landing spot with an offense that will play to his talents, has an elite WR1 and (when healthy) a top 5 TE as weapons to learn with, and a QB in Darnold who is good enough to float the team and help train up Penix and get him to NFL speed. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be the case. He'll likely go earlier, and will likely be thrust into an immediate starting role, which I don't think any of these QBs outside Williams are really built to do right now.
I would think Penix (really any of the top-6 QBs) would be REALLY hard to sit behind Darnold.
I've got a sizeable drop off after Williams and Maye. I probably like Penix the least, but 3-6 is pretty hair splitting to me. I think all 6 are NFL starters.
QBs are the hardest to acquire in SF, especially ones that are producing. If Penix gets first round capital (means hes going to a team that needs a QB, or even early 2nd) and can be had for "cheap" in rookie drafts compared to the other top 4 then I'd be willing to give it a shot.Right, but what's the hit rate on QB's drafted 15-60 in the rookie scale era? There's a point when this low probability hit is optimal to skill positions, but I don't think it's anywhere near the end of rd 1.Will be interesting to see who is still there at the end of the first. The thought with QB is that if the hit they are worth a fortune in SF leagues. Even if he ends up a solid/top end QB 2 (Say ranked 13-15) for the next 8-10 years you are sitting pretty. They will outscore most WRs unless the WR hits top 5 consistently.Given the quality of this WR class, I think late rd 1 is a mistake (just about) regardless of when and where he goes.With the needs at QB I could see Penix going end of 1st round rookie drafts in SF.Probably a 3rd or 4th round pick in start 1QB leagues and a 2nd round pick in SF.
I could always use another QB and I have 1.12. I could see myself taking a stab at QB with 1.12. He can chuck the ball and he's likely going to an NFL team that needs a QB. If he has to sit behind a vet QB for a bit that isn't a bad thing either.
The QB that hits has great value and always tradeable.
I'd compare the 2nd tier of WR's in this crop to the 1st tier in 2020. Are there warts? Of course, otherwise they'd be top 10 picks - anyone talking guarantees with any of them is a damn fool. But this group is both deep and talented. Also, as you mentioned, there may also be stronger cases for RB than there is right now - capital and situation will heavily influence whether the first handful or so may fit ~1.12 or more like ~2.12.QBs are the hardest to acquire in SF, especially ones that are producing. If Penix gets first round capital (means hes going to a team that needs a QB, or even early 2nd) and can be had for "cheap" in rookie drafts compared to the other top 4 then I'd be willing to give it a shot.Right, but what's the hit rate on QB's drafted 15-60 in the rookie scale era? There's a point when this low probability hit is optimal to skill positions, but I don't think it's anywhere near the end of rd 1.Will be interesting to see who is still there at the end of the first. The thought with QB is that if the hit they are worth a fortune in SF leagues. Even if he ends up a solid/top end QB 2 (Say ranked 13-15) for the next 8-10 years you are sitting pretty. They will outscore most WRs unless the WR hits top 5 consistently.Given the quality of this WR class, I think late rd 1 is a mistake (just about) regardless of when and where he goes.With the needs at QB I could see Penix going end of 1st round rookie drafts in SF.Probably a 3rd or 4th round pick in start 1QB leagues and a 2nd round pick in SF.
I could always use another QB and I have 1.12. I could see myself taking a stab at QB with 1.12. He can chuck the ball and he's likely going to an NFL team that needs a QB. If he has to sit behind a vet QB for a bit that isn't a bad thing either.
The QB that hits has great value and always tradeable.
Now, if we want to talk about first round WR busts the list is long.... This is the reality in fantasy drafts. Looking back there are a lot of busts in the first round. Can you guarantee the 5th-6th-7th WR off teh board will hit? Nope. Who is more valuable in a SF league?
Question - in SF right now who is worth more? Levis or Quinton Johnson/Jameson Williams/Dotson/Toney/Bateman (and the list goes on)? If Penix has a starting job next year he still has value in SF if you really need to get out. Even Bryce Young who had a bust of a first season is still worth something right now. I have Young and am getting offers for him as we speak.
Penix may very well bust out but so could the WR taken at 1.12. QBs are harder to find and this is a rookie draft where someone picking late 1st can actually get a potential starting QB.
There are warts on all the WRs after the first 3. I don't have all the answers, no doubt its a tough decision at 1.12, but the WRs sitting there aren't guaranteed to hit. Taking the first RB (Brooks/Benson/Corum) off the board could be a decent option but again it all comes down to SF and the QB position being so valuable.
@MAC_32 I wil respond this way, the quotes were getting too long for my liking. I 100% hear what you are saying but there is risk at the WR spot, especially with guys like Franklin, Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy. I get 1 pick and it isn't guaranteed it works out. If you can tell me which guy will 100% workout then I'm all ears.I'd compare the 2nd tier of WR's in this crop to the 1st tier in 2020. Are there warts? Of course, otherwise they'd be top 10 picks - anyone talking guarantees with any of them is a damn fool. But this group is both deep and talented. Also, as you mentioned, there may also be stronger cases for RB than there is right now - capital and situation will heavily influence whether the first handful or so may fit ~1.12 or more like ~2.12.
Penix makes sense once you get through all of ^^^them. Don't know if that's ~mid 2nd or ~early 3rd, but it's not ~late 1st. In a weaker class like last year (see Will Levis), sure, but unless the Vikings prioritize him rd 1 what scenario plays out that results in him rightfully firing up the board? He doesn't have the ability to elevate a mediocre or worse supporting cast and that's the case for most others in pursuit of a QB. I'll be most optimistic in his potential future development if he follows the Jordan Love path on a stronger team...and I'd be happy to pay a 2020 Jordan Love price to get him.
I think where we aren't aligning is you're using phrases like 'guarantee' and '100%' whereas I intentionally wrote the following:@MAC_32 I wil respond this way, the quotes were getting too long for my liking. I 100% hear what you are saying but there is risk at the WR spot, especially with guys like Franklin, Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy. I get 1 pick and it isn't guaranteed it works out. If you can tell me which guy will 100% workout then I'm all ears.I'd compare the 2nd tier of WR's in this crop to the 1st tier in 2020. Are there warts? Of course, otherwise they'd be top 10 picks - anyone talking guarantees with any of them is a damn fool. But this group is both deep and talented. Also, as you mentioned, there may also be stronger cases for RB than there is right now - capital and situation will heavily influence whether the first handful or so may fit ~1.12 or more like ~2.12.
Penix makes sense once you get through all of ^^^them. Don't know if that's ~mid 2nd or ~early 3rd, but it's not ~late 1st. In a weaker class like last year (see Will Levis), sure, but unless the Vikings prioritize him rd 1 what scenario plays out that results in him rightfully firing up the board? He doesn't have the ability to elevate a mediocre or worse supporting cast and that's the case for most others in pursuit of a QB. I'll be most optimistic in his potential future development if he follows the Jordan Love path on a stronger team...and I'd be happy to pay a 2020 Jordan Love price to get him.
If I'm looking at my dynasty league where QBs have great value, and are hard to acquire, then taking a QB there makes sense. Yes they might not work out but no guarantee the WR does either. I'll be honest, after the top 3 WRs they are all a coin flip IMO. Things can change after the NFL draft with values rising and falling but I usually lean on the QB coin flip than the WR coin flip.
Fair enough on the guarantee part. I'm still not sold on the the WRs after the first 3-4. I'd take a flyer on Thomas for sure but after that I see it as a coin flip as so many don't work out. Same with QBs, even first rounders don't always work out.I think where we aren't aligning is you're using phrases like 'guarantee' and '100%' whereas I intentionally wrote the following:@MAC_32 I wil respond this way, the quotes were getting too long for my liking. I 100% hear what you are saying but there is risk at the WR spot, especially with guys like Franklin, Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy. I get 1 pick and it isn't guaranteed it works out. If you can tell me which guy will 100% workout then I'm all ears.I'd compare the 2nd tier of WR's in this crop to the 1st tier in 2020. Are there warts? Of course, otherwise they'd be top 10 picks - anyone talking guarantees with any of them is a damn fool. But this group is both deep and talented. Also, as you mentioned, there may also be stronger cases for RB than there is right now - capital and situation will heavily influence whether the first handful or so may fit ~1.12 or more like ~2.12.
Penix makes sense once you get through all of ^^^them. Don't know if that's ~mid 2nd or ~early 3rd, but it's not ~late 1st. In a weaker class like last year (see Will Levis), sure, but unless the Vikings prioritize him rd 1 what scenario plays out that results in him rightfully firing up the board? He doesn't have the ability to elevate a mediocre or worse supporting cast and that's the case for most others in pursuit of a QB. I'll be most optimistic in his potential future development if he follows the Jordan Love path on a stronger team...and I'd be happy to pay a 2020 Jordan Love price to get him.
If I'm looking at my dynasty league where QBs have great value, and are hard to acquire, then taking a QB there makes sense. Yes they might not work out but no guarantee the WR does either. I'll be honest, after the top 3 WRs they are all a coin flip IMO. Things can change after the NFL draft with values rising and falling but I usually lean on the QB coin flip than the WR coin flip.
'...there's a point when this low probability hit is optimal to skill positions'
But why do they put a guarantee on the box?
Because they know all they sold ya was a guaranteed piece of ****. That's all it is, isn't it? Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your customer's sake, for your daughter's sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from me.
---
There's nothing guaranteed about the 2nd tier of this WR class just like there isn't a guarantee about anyone from tier 1 in a normal class (this one too for that matter). Is Penix 50/50? and is everyone from that 2nd tier of WR's 50/50? If that's where you are with your coin flip commentary then I strongly disagree. Short of the Vikes prioritizing him scenario I'd put Penix at either a probability quite a bit less than 50% or a long wait. How's that measure against higher probability hits at skill positions? We'll see on an individual basis come Friday night, but I think it's crazy to suggest everyone in that entire tier will just be a coin flip.
Atlanta
I would not even worry about, they are not going to pick either of them that high.
Personally I think he and Nix both have a "chance" to go in round one, but I'd not predict either, no chance in top 12 and I'd say not in the top 20 but never know with the Raiders,
I'll take the L.I would not even worry about, they are not going to pick either of them that high.
Personally I think he and Nix both have a "chance" to go in round one, but I'd not predict either, no chance in top 12 and I'd say not in the top 20 but never know with the Raiders,
Ouch.
Can they get out of Penix after 2?can they get out of cousins after 2?