I'm trying to decide between DX and Hilton too. Right now I am leaning Hilton because of the matchup and its FF playoffs time.
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Danario Alexander - Lottery ticket? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter rickyg
- Start date
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Ugh I've made some bad decisions regarding him in my lineup but still made the playoffs. I really don't like his matchup but the advent of starting Britt or Fitz over him seem even less appealing.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I can see the flip side of the coin for Hilton owners. Except for the Jax game, he has been on fire the last 5 weeks (WR11 in PPR on a PPG basis). Nice matchup, at home, good chemistry with a good QB who throws a ton.
My question would be - do you only start two WRs? Because if you start 3 or have a flex, I would say DX AND Hilton, with another decision to make on the third. Obviously DX came cheap for most, and Hilton was either a late flyer or WW pickup as well. I think it's sometimes hard to convince ourselves to plug in TWO WW gems. We can do one, but two seems like too big of a risk.
We tend to hang on to sunk costs to justify earlier decisions. It's a sunk cost - it won't change no matter what you decide. We think "I have to start players X and Y who I drafted in the 2nd/3rd/4th, and then I'll decide between Hilton or Alexander for my third."
(ASIDE - I'm a redraft guy, obvs dynasty is a different mindset)
FWIW, for the sake of comparison, I have been rolling out Cecil Shorts and DX for weeks, leaving Torrey Smith, Jordy Nelson and (before he got hurt) DeSean Jackson on my bench. I played Shorts in bad weather and DX against tough matchups versus the Ravens and Bengals, and it paid off. My WR1 - my consistent PPR machine - is Welker.
My question would be - do you only start two WRs? Because if you start 3 or have a flex, I would say DX AND Hilton, with another decision to make on the third. Obviously DX came cheap for most, and Hilton was either a late flyer or WW pickup as well. I think it's sometimes hard to convince ourselves to plug in TWO WW gems. We can do one, but two seems like too big of a risk.
We tend to hang on to sunk costs to justify earlier decisions. It's a sunk cost - it won't change no matter what you decide. We think "I have to start players X and Y who I drafted in the 2nd/3rd/4th, and then I'll decide between Hilton or Alexander for my third."
(ASIDE - I'm a redraft guy, obvs dynasty is a different mindset)
FWIW, for the sake of comparison, I have been rolling out Cecil Shorts and DX for weeks, leaving Torrey Smith, Jordy Nelson and (before he got hurt) DeSean Jackson on my bench. I played Shorts in bad weather and DX against tough matchups versus the Ravens and Bengals, and it paid off. My WR1 - my consistent PPR machine - is Welker.
Ace zero1
Footballguy
Yeah in my league I start 3 wr and a flex so this week I'm rolling d.thomas/dez/dx then Hilton at flex.
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This is semantics. Perhaps you're not getting what I'm trying to say so let's use the matchup vs cincy again to explain. I don't care if danario is a #1, 2, 3, or slot wr on paper or in your mind or any other fantasy football players mind.So if a player gets 10+ more targets than any other WR on his team in every game but faces their opponent's CB2 he's still not his team's #1 WR? And if a WR leads the league in fantasy points but plays exclusively in the slot against the opponent team's nickleback he's a WR3 for fantasy purposes? The logical consequences of what you're saying make no sense.Did cincy put their #1 cb on him today? I didn't see the game. Until today Floyd has been drawing the opposing teams #1 cb each week which for fantasy and football purposes makes him the #1 wr. I agree that they are using him like they used vjax but opposing team have not yet acknowledged him as the #1. And for matchups you need to know that. That's why I felt so confident starting him today. Cincy usually shuts down TE opposing team's WR1They are using him like they used VJax ... over 400 yards in the last 4 weeks. Hes a high end WR2 -low end WR1 in fantasy
and has consistently been getting 7-10 targets and could be considering a WR1 in real life as well.
What I cared about for the purposes of the matchup vs cincy is that up until now in just about every game danario has played for SD the opposing team has stuck their best cb on Malcolm Floyd (thus one can say that the opposing team respected Floyd more as the greatest wr threat on the chargers). That is significant for us to know BC this season #1 wrs on opposing teams have typically fared poorly vs cincy. Guys like Erik decker did quite well against them though.
So it was an easy decision for me to start danario against a tough pass defense with that knowledge, and the knowledge that (whether you or I believe that danario is the #1 wr on sd) cincy would likely follow suit and treat Floyd as the bigger threat in the passing game.
Are you guys really not seeing the point I am making here? This is the type of analysis that separates the average ff player from a seasoned veteran.
I'm not trying to be pompous but what you are calling illogical thinking I am calling incredible fantasy football insight and analysis.
Whether you or I think danario is the wr1 on the chargers makes absolutely no difference in thinking this through. What matters is how the opposing defense views him. i don't disagree that danario is the #1 wr on the chargers and the biggest receiving threat. I find it humorous that opposing defensive coordinators still have not caught into this.
I suspect that will happen soon and then we will see danario consistently covered by every opponents best cb. Possibly blanketed with a safety. And then we will truly see if he has what it takes to be like a Calvin/Marshall/demaryius type player. I hope that opposing defenses don't catch on until next year though!
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We only start 2 WR's and my WR1 is Calvin, so it's totally an Alexander verses Hilton question for me. I think that the colts-titans game is gonna be a shoot out as both teams have no defense, which is why I'm leaning Hilton over Alexander.
donkshow
Footballguy
He always has WR1 upside IMO.
donkshow
Footballguy
I, too, have to decide between the two.
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Well yeah I suppose. What's an acceptable floor of production for a wr1 in fantasy? 75 yds and a td? Then yeah I suppose he always has wr1 potential regardless of matchup BC he is a huge redzone threat.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
You misread my post. I referred to targets as my basis for him being the Chargers WR#1, I wasn't giving nonsensical opinion. Danario has received the lions share of the targets the past 3 weeks, even including multiple bubble screens where the Chargers just want to get the ball in Danario's hands and let him do the rest. As long as the Chargers keep treating Danario as their #1 WR by giving him ~10 targets a game it's not gonna matter who is covering him, he's gonna put up fantasy numbers that'll make him just about impossible to bench.This is semantics. Perhaps you're not getting what I'm trying to say so let's use the matchup vs cincy again to explain. I don't care if danario is a #1, 2, 3, or slot wr on paper or in your mind or any other fantasy football players mind.So if a player gets 10+ more targets than any other WR on his team in every game but faces their opponent's CB2 he's still not his team's #1 WR? And if a WR leads the league in fantasy points but plays exclusively in the slot against the opponent team's nickleback he's a WR3 for fantasy purposes? The logical consequences of what you're saying make no sense.Did cincy put their #1 cb on him today? I didn't see the game. Until today Floyd has been drawing the opposing teams #1 cb each week which for fantasy and football purposes makes him the #1 wr. I agree that they are using him like they used vjax but opposing team have not yet acknowledged him as the #1. And for matchups you need to know that. That's why I felt so confident starting him today. Cincy usually shuts down TE opposing team's WR1
and has consistently been getting 7-10 targets and could be considering a WR1 in real life as well.
What I cared about for the purposes of the matchup vs cincy is that up until now in just about every game danario has played for SD the opposing team has stuck their best cb on Malcolm Floyd (thus one can say that the opposing team respected Floyd more as the greatest wr threat on the chargers). That is significant for us to know BC this season #1 wrs on opposing teams have typically fared poorly vs cincy. Guys like Erik decker did quite well against them though.
So it was an easy decision for me to start danario against a tough pass defense with that knowledge, and the knowledge that (whether you or I believe that danario is the #1 wr on sd) cincy would likely follow suit and treat Floyd as the bigger threat in the passing game.
Are you guys really not seeing the point I am making here? This is the type of analysis that separates the average ff player from a seasoned veteran.
I'm not trying to be pompous but what you are calling illogical thinking I am calling incredible fantasy football insight and analysis.
Whether you or I think danario is the wr1 on the chargers makes absolutely no difference in thinking this through. What matters is how the opposing defense views him. i don't disagree that danario is the #1 wr on the chargers and the biggest receiving threat. I find it humorous that opposing defensive coordinators still have not caught into this.
I suspect that will happen soon and then we will see danario consistently covered by every opponents best cb. Possibly blanketed with a safety. And then we will truly see if he has what it takes to be like a Calvin/Marshall/demaryius type player. I hope that opposing defenses don't catch on until next year though!
From your mouth to the fantasy football gods ears! However, I am not as fully convinced as you are about danarios ability to produce regardless of who covers him or if he is doubled with safety help. I WANT to think that but until I see it I will remain cautiously optimistic. Once again we are not in disagreement. I have known/felt that danario was the #1 wr in the chargers for 2-3 weeks now. My analysis was based on how opposing teams view him and for purposes of debating whether or not to start him that matters more than our opinion.You misread my post. I referred to targets as my basis for him being the Chargers WR#1, I wasn't giving nonsensical opinion. Danario has received the lions share of the targets the past 3 weeks, even including multiple bubble screens where the Chargers just want to get the ball in Danario's hands and let him do the rest. As long as the Chargers keep treating Danario as their #1 WR by giving him ~10 targets a game it's not gonna matter who is covering him, he's gonna put up fantasy numbers that'll make him just about impossible to bench.This is semantics. Perhaps you're not getting what I'm trying to say so let's use the matchup vs cincy again to explain. I don't care if danario is a #1, 2, 3, or slot wr on paper or in your mind or any other fantasy football players mind.So if a player gets 10+ more targets than any other WR on his team in every game but faces their opponent's CB2 he's still not his team's #1 WR? And if a WR leads the league in fantasy points but plays exclusively in the slot against the opponent team's nickleback he's a WR3 for fantasy purposes? The logical consequences of what you're saying make no sense.Did cincy put their #1 cb on him today? I didn't see the game. Until today Floyd has been drawing the opposing teams #1 cb each week which for fantasy and football purposes makes him the #1 wr. I agree that they are using him like they used vjax but opposing team have not yet acknowledged him as the #1. And for matchups you need to know that. That's why I felt so confident starting him today. Cincy usually shuts down TE opposing team's WR1
and has consistently been getting 7-10 targets and could be considering a WR1 in real life as well.
What I cared about for the purposes of the matchup vs cincy is that up until now in just about every game danario has played for SD the opposing team has stuck their best cb on Malcolm Floyd (thus one can say that the opposing team respected Floyd more as the greatest wr threat on the chargers). That is significant for us to know BC this season #1 wrs on opposing teams have typically fared poorly vs cincy. Guys like Erik decker did quite well against them though.
So it was an easy decision for me to start danario against a tough pass defense with that knowledge, and the knowledge that (whether you or I believe that danario is the #1 wr on sd) cincy would likely follow suit and treat Floyd as the bigger threat in the passing game.
Are you guys really not seeing the point I am making here? This is the type of analysis that separates the average ff player from a seasoned veteran.
I'm not trying to be pompous but what you are calling illogical thinking I am calling incredible fantasy football insight and analysis.
Whether you or I think danario is the wr1 on the chargers makes absolutely no difference in thinking this through. What matters is how the opposing defense views him. i don't disagree that danario is the #1 wr on the chargers and the biggest receiving threat. I find it humorous that opposing defensive coordinators still have not caught into this.
I suspect that will happen soon and then we will see danario consistently covered by every opponents best cb. Possibly blanketed with a safety. And then we will truly see if he has what it takes to be like a Calvin/Marshall/demaryius type player. I hope that opposing defenses don't catch on until next year though!
Know what I mean, jelly bean?
Otis
Footballguy
Really tough matchup this week. I'm not quite as enthusiastic as you are and may bench him for VJax and Colston.
Otis
Footballguy
Oh lord.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Again?Because we both own DX, I've noted your decisions over the last month. You were the one who pimped Danario when he was putting up 95, 72 and 99 yarders off 20 snap count games back in 2010. He also got hurt again, and put up a couple goose eggs because of pain management. I get the hesitation by anyone who got teased by him when he was with the Rams.Every week you post about this same decision, and AFAIK you always revert back. But this is not boom-bust hope he gets something off a handful of targets Alexander. This is 94% snaps, leads the team in targets and yards every GD week DX.Good thinking - from a risk management perspective - sticking with Marques. He'll get you 10-13 every week without fail. If you're an actuary, easy decision.If you're trying to win a FF title, take some chances.
Otis
Footballguy
I started DX over Vjax last week. So much of this involves matchups. I'm a huge DX fan but he makes me nervous against PIT. I may roll with him anyway given Colston's low target numbers of late. But I could also see Colston waking up and catching a pair of TDs one of these days. In any event nobody can deny DX's targets and performance of late. I'd like to see even more involvement from him, but I won't complain.
If I had those 3 players on my team for THIS week I go garçon and Moreno. Moreno has a fantastic matchup and garçon is on fire and has a better matchup than DX. I love DX but I'm not blinded by it.
MCguidance
Footballguy
Such a good point. Once over the mental part of it, I have been playing Shorts and DX with AJ Green while Harvin is out.'BobbyLayne said:
I think this guy is a must start right now. He stays healthy, he stays in the lineup...
Sir Psycho
Footballguy
I'm having so much hesitation this week with DX and the rest of my WRs.
I have M William, S Smith and J Gordon and all of them have very good matchup.
For now, I have MW and SS over DX.
I have M William, S Smith and J Gordon and all of them have very good matchup.
For now, I have MW and SS over DX.
JFS171
Footballguy
My concern isn't related to DX, it's related to the Pittsburgh front 7 against a turnstyle offensive line for SD. If Rivers doesn't have time to throw, it won't matter that DX is running open down the sideline.
It's a risky matchup, not so much because of DX or questioning his abilities, but as to whether or not James Harrison and company are in Rivers' facemask all game.
It's a risky matchup, not so much because of DX or questioning his abilities, but as to whether or not James Harrison and company are in Rivers' facemask all game.
HALtheCOW
Footballguy
I have been following this thread. I grabbed DX and have played him every week in a 14 team, Start 4 WR league.
I wish I could still use him but I have missed the playoffs by a game. Now I am looking forward to next season. I can keep DX for about 5% of my Auction Budget for next year. I can also keep Josh Gordon for about the same price.
So my question is what do the DX Gurus (that would be ya'll) think about his outlook for next season. Do you like him to remain the #1 in SD? Do you think he could get 60 catches next year? 80? How do you see him versus a Josh Gordon situation?
I wish I could still use him but I have missed the playoffs by a game. Now I am looking forward to next season. I can keep DX for about 5% of my Auction Budget for next year. I can also keep Josh Gordon for about the same price.
So my question is what do the DX Gurus (that would be ya'll) think about his outlook for next season. Do you like him to remain the #1 in SD? Do you think he could get 60 catches next year? 80? How do you see him versus a Josh Gordon situation?
Banger
Footballguy
I have both in a keeper league I'll likely be in the minority in this thread but I would lean toward Gordon. He has his own warts (character related) but the health issues with Denario and real. Gordon is a 21 year old wr with a ton of talent that didn't play football last year. I think he has a bunch of upside for a long time to come.
Agreed. If I had to choose if probably lean Gordon BC of DX health issues. Also, it's clear that Gordon and weeden have good chemistry and both are at the beginning of their nfl careers. Weeden is annold rookie but he can easiky have 5-8 years as a very productive nfl qb. The browns offense is in the upswing and sd looks lost. Rivers is definitely in the downside of his career. With that said, we won't know until the offseason what the chargers plan to do with DX. First lets see him get through the rest of this season without re aggravating any knee issues. Then lets see if the chargers sign him and how lucrative the deal is which will tell us how they intend to use him next season. Also lets see who the coach (and qb) is in sd next season. More stable situation in sd IMO.
Sometimes you can overthink things.I benched him against Dumervil, V.Miller, Champ & Co. a couple weeks ago in Denver and he proceeded to put up 7/96/2.
That I would not do. I like givens but I like DX way better.
Dark Matter
Footballguy
I would do this in ppr if Amendola is out. Bradford was absolutely locked on to Givens last game.
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unckeyherb
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
For comparisons sake, my choices for start 3 WRs are:
Wes Welker vrs Hou (automatic)
Torrey Smith @ Was (2nd most FF pts allowed to WRs in PPR)
Chris Givens @ Buf (nice matchup - 7th most)
Danario Alexander @ Pit (fewest FF pts allowed to WRs in PPR)
Jordy Nelson vrs Det (6th most but likely out, not practicing)
Cecil Shorts vrs NYJ (30th most, still has concussion symptoms, not practicing)
The first two are definitely in the lineup. The last two are likely not an option.
Givens is an option with Amendola is not practicing. Lots of targets/receptions last week and the matchup is favorable.
Alexander has a tough matchup but Ike Taylor has a leg fracture so there's a good chance he gets his.
I'll probably roll with DX, Wes and Torrey.
Wes Welker vrs Hou (automatic)
Torrey Smith @ Was (2nd most FF pts allowed to WRs in PPR)
Chris Givens @ Buf (nice matchup - 7th most)
Danario Alexander @ Pit (fewest FF pts allowed to WRs in PPR)
Jordy Nelson vrs Det (6th most but likely out, not practicing)
Cecil Shorts vrs NYJ (30th most, still has concussion symptoms, not practicing)
The first two are definitely in the lineup. The last two are likely not an option.
Givens is an option with Amendola is not practicing. Lots of targets/receptions last week and the matchup is favorable.
Alexander has a tough matchup but Ike Taylor has a leg fracture so there's a good chance he gets his.
I'll probably roll with DX, Wes and Torrey.
I'm in a similar boat.. have S Smith, TBMW, and Jennings starting.. really wanted to play DX but those three guys have nice matchups.
Black Sunshine
Footballguy
At this point...subject to change...
Starting Megatron, Cobb, and Colston
Benching DX, Decker, Gordon and DMoore
Great dynasty league depth but hard choices every week.
(Also have Harvin and DJax on IR)
Starting Megatron, Cobb, and Colston
Benching DX, Decker, Gordon and DMoore
Great dynasty league depth but hard choices every week.
(Also have Harvin and DJax on IR)
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
Starting him over Denarius and Miles Austin.
HALtheCOW
Footballguy
I will have to designate keepers in Feb. I appreciate the feedback. I am planning on keeping Gordon over DX, but may not keep 2 QB so I may be able to keep DX as well. I will certainly wait to see if he makes it through the season healthy. I am afraid I will have to decide before they sign him to a contract--that will be a great indication on how SD values him going forward. But I just love what I am seeing from him on the field. Again, thanks for the feedback.'cvnpoka said:
JFS171
Footballguy
This is where I'm standing, plus I've got other WR options:Wallace vs. SD with Roeth returningKenny Britt @ IND AND, I only need to start 1 WR (other WR is Cruz), then fill 2 flex spots. And I've got 2 of Moreno, Ballard, Dwyer to possibly play in the 2 flex spots as well (other will be my RB2).Like another poster said above... great dynasty league depth, but the weekly options are killing me as I feel doomed to pick the wrong guys every week.'BobbyLayne said:
FF EGGHEAD
Footballguy
In NON PPR at my flex I really like DX BUT and benching DX as I think I have better matchups:Moreno @ OAK'unckeyherb said:
Dwyer vs SD
G Jennings vs DET
DX @ PIT
Still not sure though?
i live in cleveland and watch enough the browns (more than id like actually.) anyway, i like gordon and he looks pretty good but i just dont think there is any way he can match danario's upside. if healthy throughout the rest of the season and no complaining of knee scopes or soreness until feb, then i would go just aim high and stick with him. id rather have a short career of elite performance than a long career of decent performance.but thats just a philosophical preference.
