Fantasy: The Denarius Moore Conundrum
September 29th, 2011 | Author: Alessandro Miglio
If you follow me on Twitter, you might remember that I banged the drum for Denarius Moore a couple of days before a breakout performance against the Buffalo Bills. I also expected a bit of a falloff with the return of Darius Heyward-Bey against a much better New York Jets defense. Indeed, Moore caught just four passes for 34 yards – were it not for a fluky, 23-yard trick play touchdown, his fantasy output would have been quite pedestrian. But a touchdown is a touchdown, and Moore finds himself to be a hot fantasy commodity after back-to-back great fantasy weeks.
Where should we rank him going forward, though? That is an intriguing question. On the one hand, Moore has made the most of his opportunities – with Jacoby Ford and DHB ailing, he shredded a porous Bills defense. Against the Jets, he took a reverse sweep and outraced the Jets defense to the end zone. There is no denying Moore’s playmaking ability, and he very well could have played his way into a permanent and significant role in the Raiders offense.
Enter the grains of salt. Ford looks to make his return from injury this week, to go along with a healthy Heyward-Bey. They will be encroaching on Moore’s playing time, perhaps to a significant degree. If depth charts are to be believed, Heyward-Bey and Ford would be the starters on this team, making Moore the WR3 at best – this is assuming he has fully surpassed Derek Hagan, Chaz Schilens and Louis Murphy on the depth chart, once the latter returns from injury. With the way Moore has played when given the opportunity, it seems like a foregone conclusion that he has entrenched himself as one of the top three receivers on the team, but assumptions are dangerous.
At any rate, let us assume that Moore is the WR3 in Oakland, possibly stealing playing time from DHB and Ford as well. The Raiders have run three-receiver sets 21% of the time, while rolling with two receivers 50% of the time and four receivers on 10% of plays thus far this season. Would that put Moore on the field just 31% of the time? Doubtful – there is a strong likelihood that he gets on the field for 2WR sets. The question is how often, and it is an important one because Moore could be on the field anywhere between 31% and 81% of the time, a huge disparity – I discount Moore on 1WR sets because it seems DHB has got that role locked down. For a good frame of reference, Moore was on the field for 49 snaps on which he ran 30 pass routes to Heyward-Bey’s 61 and 33, respectively, against the Jets. Hagan and Schilens, meanwhile, were on the field for just 29 and 19 snaps respectively, adding some evidence to the assumption that Moore has passed them on the DC. Those snap counts for Hagan and Schilens are a bit of a warning sign about Moore’s playing time when Ford returns, though – I doubt Moore gets on the field so little, but their playing time was clearly limited behind the WR2. Will Moore’s snap count and pass route numbers be close to where they have been for the past two games when Ford returns to action? That is the rub.
The thing is, Moore could already be the best and most reliable receiver the Raiders have on their team, regardless of depth chart, and one would think they would start their best players. If Moore lights up a bad Patriots pass defense while Ford and DHB struggle, does he become the WR1 on this team? It is quite possible. With just two real games under his belt, Moore is the 8th-best WR in the league with a +4.8 overall rating, easily the best the Raiders have seen for any two-game stretch in years. He represents the versatile threat Ford was supposed to be. Will he be what Ford sleeper proponents were hoping for? This Sunday will go a long way toward answering that question, and others. He has tremendous upside, at the very least, and could be the waiver wire pickup of the year when all is said and done.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/09/29/fantasy-the-denarius-moore-conundrum/
Or did you mean to be talking about DHB?
jealousy and envy can really bring down a player's value... 
If it's not, would you like an invite to my league next season?
Thats what Im talking about. Blouses.
