Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Here's a chance for everyone to voice their opinions on the playoff games this weekend.

 

[djcolts]

As a Colts fan, this is what concerns me:1. Plummer's bootlegs2. Tatum Bell. I actually think the Colts could control Droughns somewhat, but quicker backs like Bell do give the Colts D problems.3. The offense not being sharp because of the semi-bye weeks. The Colts offense has struggled on weeks after a bye or a semi-bye each time - especially in the 1st half. 4. The Colts' secondary needs to either make plays or not allow huge plays (both would be better). 5. The revenge factor - that is clearly in the Broncos' column.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Off ESPN.comThere are eight instances in which teams that faced each other in the final regular-season game played one week later in the wild-card round. The results are a split, with the club that won the regular-season game also taking the wild-card contest four times. The most recent examples of such back-to-back games were in 2001, when the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Oakland Raiders and New York Jets faced off twice in two weeks. The Eagles won both games. New York defeated Oakland in the season finale but lost to the Raiders in the playoffs.Obviously last week's game was meaningless for Indianapolis. Don't forget though, the Broncos put a whooping on the Colts in Indy last year. That was Quentin Griffin's breakout game.This also should be marketed as "The Champ Bailey" game. Denver specifically traded their best player in order to avoid the meltdown that happenned at the RCA dome last January.

 

[RAIDERNATION.]

Denver 22Indy 78

 

[Chase Stuart]

Things in Denver's favor:They were in the top ten in all four efficiency stats: 6th in yards per pass attempt8th in yards per rush attempt8th in yards per pass attempt allowed9th in yards per rush attempt allowedThey're a very balanced team, and they would certainly need a great performance out of Shanahan. Denver can play up the no respect angle, and they have little pressure on them.However, I have a hard time seeing Manning in this record breaking year, exiting in the first round.

 

[RAIDERNATION.]

Things in Denver's favor:They were in the top ten in all four efficiency stats: 6th in yards per pass attempt8th in yards per rush attempt8th in yards per pass attempt allowed9th in yards per rush attempt allowedThey're a very balanced team, and they would certainly need a great performance out of Shanahan. Denver can play up the no respect angle, and they have little pressure on them.

Good points. I'm going to change my score to 78-25.

 

[P Boy]

LOL @ Raidernation.I just hope DEN can actually make a game of it. Since Elway & TD have been gone as a tandem in the backfield, DEN has played exactly 2 playoff games & were blown out of both games - they were both over by halftime, getting embarrassed in BAL & then last year's fiasco in IND.To say I don't have much confidence in DEN being competitive is an understatement of epic proportions...

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

I don't see how Denver stays within 20 points here. Indy will jump on them early and they will tee off on Plummer and he'll throw some picks.Indy 41Den 20

 

[Elway Lives]

Also have little faith in a broncos win, but on a good day they can be a very tough team to beat. Problem is their good days usually follow multiple, um, not quite so good weeks. They destroyed Tenn in week 16, but the Titans were playing cheerleaders due to all their injuries. And they beat Indy's 2nd and 3rd stringers easily. They have to feel good about their "run", but before these cakewalks they were struggling big time. Before he was pulled last week, Harrison was pulling down everything thrown his way. I think he missed 1 out of the 5 or 6 balls thrown to him. Granted most of these were shorter dumps, but he still managed a TD catch, and almost all of these plays he was covered by Champ (and this was after Peyton and Edge had both been yanked). If Champ doesn't step up his coverage of Harrison any better than the start of last week's game its gonna be a really long afternoon, and RAIDERNATION's prediction of 78 points might just be close. Little faith but a lot of hope. It all depends on which denver team shows up.

 

[Ack88]

I'm going to go against the grain and take Denver to win outright. I have no confidence in the Colts defense. If Tatum Bell plays most of the game (a big if, I know), he could control the clock and run up 150+ yards.Indy certainly can and will score, but give the the Broncos in a 38-35 upset.

 

[Bankerguy]

Indy scores early and often. Forcing Plummer into mistake after mistake.This one could get ugly. Look for big games from all 3 WR's.Indy 47Denver 21

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

The Broncos are being underestimated, which is fine...good, even.The Colts offense has been out of sync since Baltimore. Then, Marty handed them the win against SD, and it took them 3 quarters to get anything going in that game, and that was at home. Last week's rest could not have helped any. Can they pick it up where they left off a month ago? We'll see...If Denver can run, and I think they can, the Colts will be in trouble, with Manning on the sidelines. I can see them panic, if Denver starts out hot. Denver has nothing to lose -- and this will work in their favor.If, however, the Colts (Manning) start off hot, and get up a couple of scores, it's over. I think a lot will be decided early in this game.

 

[10993]

Indy. Denver won't come close. And watch, all my predictions will be right.

 

[Mr. Vegas]

Denver 22Indy 78

Alright.This is the game I see as being a Oh we killed them last year game.I like the points and Denver,I think Denver could even win this game.I was 1 of 10 won picked them to win.Give me the 10 points.

 

[Cajun Heat]

Interesting trivia, just a wee bit off topic:I just heard on the Mike and Mike show that this will be the first playoff game to feature FIVE 1,000 yard receivers. Fun stat.Hijack over.

 

[-OZ-]

Denver 22Indy 78

Alright.This is the game I see as being a Oh we killed them last year game.I like the points and Denver,I think Denver could even win this game.I was 1 of 10 won picked them to win.Give me the 10 points.

It's Denver + 10?Dang, I might have to open an account...It will be a lot better game than most seem to think, if Shanny gets his team to play smart and not commit turnovers, Denver will knock Peyton out of the playoffs and we can all go back to discussing why Peyton is a turd.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

I agree with Elway Lives above...Little faith but a lot of hope. It all depends on which Denver team shows up. Denver 27Indy 24:crossesfingers:

 

[Mushu]

I am from your future....and to HELL with the Prime Directive...

I'm telling you now EXACTLY how it's going to play out this weekend.

Yes...Indy will score quickly when they have the balll while Denver grinds it out on the ground....using only on rollouts and short passes when needed.

Denver will dominate in TOP but the score will stay close.

Denver's Secondary rises to the occasion...shutting down Manning in a "would be" game winning drive.

Don't miss it 21st Century Dwellers!

This information SHOULD make money for at least ONE of you!

(hopefully...my great, great grandfather so he can start the family fortune)

 

[Big K]

The Broncos let Sorgi have a good game against them in Denver. I wonder what Manning will do to the Broncos in Indy? I'll take the colts.

 

[djcolts]

I am from your future....and to HELL with the Prime Directive...

I'm telling you now EXACTLY how it's going to play out this weekend.

If you were really from the future, wouldn't you have bet on the following:1. On the Sox winning the WS right when they were down 3-0 to the Yanks?

2. On the Florida Marlins winning the 2003 WS the day that Jack McKeown was hired.

3. On the Pistons winning the NBA title before the Rasheed trade happened?

That would have made some money.

 

[H.K.]

I am from your future....and to HELL with the Prime Directive...

I'm telling you now EXACTLY how it's going to play out this weekend.

Yes...Indy will score quickly when they have the balll while Denver grinds it out on the ground....using only on rollouts and short passes when needed.

Denver will dominate in TOP but the score will stay close.

Denver's Secondary rises to the occasion...shutting down Manning in a "would be" game winning drive.

Don't miss it 21st Century Dwellers!

This information SHOULD make money for at least ONE of you!

(hopefully...my great, great grandfather so he can start the family fortune)

This post just sealed the deal. When you speak about the future, you change the future. It is now a 100% statistical impossibility for the Broncos to win. Colts are a lock this week.

 

[The_Man]

I like the Colts a lot in this one.Maybe Denver keeps it close at the beginning like GB did, trading score for score. But when the Colts have it going at home, they score almost every possession, and if Denver gets stopped just once or twice they'll suddenly find themselves playing from behind and watching Indy's pass rush turn into a force.Another thing I've noticed about the playoffs is that in those years when a team has a truly dominant, history-making kind of unit on either side of the ball - Ravens D in 2000, Rams O in 99 - it almost always swamps the "balance" of the opponent.

 

[Mushu]

I am from your future....and to HELL with the Prime Directive...

I'm telling you now EXACTLY how it's going to play out this weekend.

If you were really from the future, wouldn't you have bet on the following:1. On the Sox winning the WS right when they were down 3-0 to the Yanks?

2. On the Florida Marlins winning the 2003 WS the day that Jack McKeown was hired.

3. On the Pistons winning the NBA title before the Rasheed trade happened?

That would have made some money.

I just invented the damn time machine YESTERDAY!! duh!

 

[djcolts]

I am from your future....and to HELL with the Prime Directive...

I'm telling you now EXACTLY how it's going to play out this weekend.

If you were really from the future, wouldn't you have bet on the following:1. On the Sox winning the WS right when they were down 3-0 to the Yanks?

2. On the Florida Marlins winning the 2003 WS the day that Jack McKeown was hired.

3. On the Pistons winning the NBA title before the Rasheed trade happened?

That would have made some money.

I just invented the damn time machine YESTERDAY!! duh!

Ah---gotcha.

 

[BigActionMike]

the broncos should take a page out of Dom Caper's playbook and run the ball all game... that way they can lose respectfully.

 

[houndirish]

Everybody wants to knock the Indy D but it's not like the Broncos field a dominant unit. Indy forces a ton of turnovers, although besides Freeney I'm not really sure how. After watching Champ Bailey for several years in Washington I really feel the guy is a bit overrated. He has 1-2 games every year where he gets picked on. That's not the definition of a shutdown corner. Champ on Harrison? I take Marv any day in that matchup.Indy is going to roll in this one.

 

[Varmint]

Lynch set the tone last week when he laid a snot-knocker on Clark.

The Denver Secondary is by far, the hardest hitting secondary in the NFL.

Lynch, Kennedy, & (not so much) Bailey are going to really give the Colts' receivers somehthing to think about when they over the middle....

INDYSTAR.COM

...at $75,000 per.....this could be an expensive playoff game!

 

[P Boy]

Everybody wants to knock the Indy D but it's not like the Broncos field a dominant unit.

Okay, I may not have confidence in DEN, but I do understand absurd statements like this one when I see them.2004 DEN D - NFL rankings:#4 Total yards against#9 points against#6 average yds/play#1 1st downs/game against#2 Time of possession#6 passing yards against#6 pass completion percentage against#6 pass TDs yielded #1 passing first downs against#11 20+ yd passes against#4 rushing yards against#8 yards per carry against#7 rush first downs against#8 20+ yd rushes againstThat's hardly a mediocre D there, my friend.

 

[MallRat]

The Denver Secondary is by far, the hardest hitting secondary in the NFL.

Rodney Harrison, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, and a healthy Ty Law say hello.

 

[JohnnyU]

Lynch set the tone last week when he laid a snot-knocker on Clark.The Denver Secondary is by far, the hardest hitting secondary in the NFL.Lynch, Kennedy, & (not so much) Bailey are going to really give the Colts' receivers somehthing to think about when they over the middle....INDYSTAR.COM...at $75,000 per.....this could be an expensive playoff game!

per another thread, the Den DB's are running their mouth's about the Indy WR's being soft. Talk about making the Colts angry The Colts will destroy Denver, and I mean DESTROY

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Lynch set the tone last week when he laid a snot-knocker on Clark.The Denver Secondary is by far, the hardest hitting secondary in the NFL.Lynch, Kennedy, & (not so much) Bailey are going to really give the Colts' receivers somehthing to think about when they over the middle....INDYSTAR.COM...at $75,000 per.....this could be an expensive playoff game!

per another thread, the Den DB's are running their mouth's about the Indy WR's being soft. Talk about making the Colts angry The Colts will destroy Denver, and I mean DESTROY

They are SOFT! I don't think anyone is to worried about buck 80 Marvin getting angry. So they talk now lets see if they walk. I am going to bet they do. Colts are a soft team. Plain and simple and if Denver smack them in the mouth early it's over. PS . No chance in hizzzell they beat a physical team like Pitt or N.E. as they proved they can't already.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Set aside some time to get anything around the house you need to get done for the last 2 hours of this broadcast because this game will be over by halftime.

 

[JohnnyU]

Lynch set the tone last week when he laid a snot-knocker on Clark.The Denver Secondary is by far, the hardest hitting secondary in the NFL.Lynch, Kennedy, & (not so much) Bailey are going to really give the Colts' receivers somehthing to think about when they over the middle....INDYSTAR.COM...at $75,000 per.....this could be an expensive playoff game!

per another thread, the Den DB's are running their mouth's about the Indy WR's being soft. Talk about making the Colts angry The Colts will destroy Denver, and I mean DESTROY

They are SOFT! I don't think anyone is to worried about buck 80 Marvin getting angry. So they talk now lets see if they walk. I am going to bet they do. Colts are a soft team. Plain and simple and if Denver smack them in the mouth early it's over. PS . No chance in hizzzell they beat a physical team like Pitt or N.E. as they proved they can't already.

You don't know what the hell you are talking about. You might want to consider shutting up now to save some face.

 

[P Boy]

You don't know what the hell you are talking about. You might want to consider shutting up now to save some face.

Well, if this is typical of the reactions of the Colts' players, then maybe that yammering by DEN is actually being productive.

 

[houndirish]

Everybody wants to knock the Indy D but it's not like the Broncos field a dominant unit.

Okay, I may not have confidence in DEN, but I do understand absurd statements like this one when I see them.2004 DEN D - NFL rankings:#4 Total yards against#9 points against#6 average yds/play#1 1st downs/game against#2 Time of possession#6 passing yards against#6 pass completion percentage against#6 pass TDs yielded #1 passing first downs against#11 20+ yd passes against#4 rushing yards against#8 yards per carry against#7 rush first downs against#8 20+ yd rushes againstThat's hardly a mediocre D there, my friend.

I never would've guessed they were 9th in scoring D. I stand corrected. However, my statement simply said I wouldn't consider the Broncos D dominant and despite your numbers I still don't. They were tied for 4th worst in the league in takeaways. I would've thought a team with a wrecking ball like Lynch, and a supposed shutdown corner like Champ would've fared better. Looking a bit closer at this game it appears to be a matchup of almost polar opposite defenses. Denver has good rankings regarding opponents scoring and yardage but can't take the ball away. Indy ranks in the middle of the NFL in scoring D and close to the bottom in yards allowed but they're 3rd in takeaways. On a team with a potent offense like Indy, every time you're giving your O an extra possession you're stacking the deck against the opposition. Indy is one of those rare teams that can get away with a D that gives up chunks of yardage because they give Peyton two bonus possessions every game. I never said the Colts D is better than Denver's but I hardly see this as a game where Denver's "stifling" defense should be considered a focal point.

 

[2's wild]

Colts d will get some turnovers in this one and seal the deal colts 38 denver 24

 

[pizzatyme]

#2 here, #5 there, upon further review of this dominating Denver Defense and Broncos team on the whole...

Wk#1 34-24 winover the Chefs, point given

Wk#2 7-6 loss to Jags, well I guess they shut the Jags down???

Wk#3 23-13 win over Chargers before the Chargers knew they were good...

Wk#4 16-13 win over the Bucs without a quality offense

Wk#5 20-17 win over a decimated Panthers offense without RB's

Wk#6 31-3 win over the hapless Raiders

Wk#7 23-10 loss to CARSON PALMER and the Bungles

Wk#8 41-28 loss to the Dominating Offense known as the Atlanta Vicks

Wk#9 31-13 win over the weak Texans offense

Wk#10 Bye

Wk#11 34-13 win over a terribly playing Saints team

Wk#12 25-24 loss to the same Terrible Raiders team now with Collins playing well

Wk#13 20-17 loss to the Chargers playing well

Wk#14 20-17 win over AJ Feely and the spooky-good Dolphins

Wk#15 45-17 Shellacking loss to the Chefs and their better offense

Wk#16 37-16 win over the 4th stringers known as the Titans

Wk#17 33-14 win over Jim Corgi and the crew AKA the Colts 3rd stringers

So, the Broncos have 2 wins versus playoff teams, a Week #3 win over the Chargers at home and before the Chargers were "Good"

And a Week#17 win at home against the Colts backups.

And 4 losses versus non-playoff teams. Of those 4 losses, 3 were on the road and 1 was at home to the Raidas

I now see why the line started at Colts -10

No way the Broncos go ON THE ROAD and win against a playoff calibur team like the Colts. Let alone keep it close.

Let's not forget that Bailey the "Shutdown" corner was embarrassed on Monday night 10/25 by Chad Johnson and Carson Palmer.

Here is a quote from NFL.com after the game..."They believe in covering man-to-man and loading up to stop the run," quarterback Carson Palmer said. "We were counting on Chad, leaning on Chad to get open and catch balls downfield."

Denver (5-2) had won its last four games with the NFL's best running game and a defense that ranks among the leaders in every category. The Broncos couldn't get nearly enough out of either.

Johnson did the most damage, catching seven passes for 149 yards. He had two 50-yard catches against Bailey in the first half alone, getting the downtrodden Bengals to believe they could pull it off.

"He made a couple of plays," said Bailey, a four-time Pro Bowl player who is rarely burned so often. "That's just the way it is in this league. I'm not afraid of any challenge. That's the way I roll."

Let's see how he rolls against Peyton and Marvin and Co.

Colts 41

Broncos 24

 

[BGP]

their points scored & allowed.

----------

Broncos (9th offense, 9th defense) 9+9 = 18

Colts (1st offense, 16th defense) 1+16 = 17

Translation: No real advantage for either team here

Offensive/Defensive Efficienies:

-----------

O:Broncos 5962 yards, 348 points = 17.13

D:Broncos 4459 yards, 304 points = 14.67*

O:Colts 6376 yards, 508 points = 12.55

D:Colts 5476 yards, 318 points = 17.22

*Includes week 17

Translation: Colts have the edge in both categories here. That's a huge plus.

----------

Ints-Ints Thrown

----------

Broncos 12-20 = -8

Colts 19-10 = +9

Another large advantage for the Colts here.

Not much else to say. I can't make a case for these Broncos to beat these Colts.

Pick: Colts

 

[Mr. Vegas]

their points scored & allowed.

----------

Broncos (9th offense, 9th defense) 9+9 = 18

Colts (1st offense, 16th defense) 1+16 = 17

Translation: No real advantage for either team here

Offensive/Defensive Efficienies:

-----------

O:Broncos 5962 yards, 348 points = 17.13

D:Broncos 4459 yards, 304 points = 14.67*

O:Colts 6376 yards, 508 points = 12.55

D:Colts 5476 yards, 318 points = 17.22

*Includes week 17

Translation: Colts have the edge in both categories here. That's a huge plus.

----------

Ints-Ints Thrown

----------

Broncos 12-20 = -8

Colts 19-10 = +9

Another large advantage for the Colts here.

Not much else to say. I can't make a case for these Broncos to beat these Colts.

Pick: Colts

That's why they play the games. :rotflmao:

 

[Jason Wood]

This game interests me in the fact that Denver is the only AFC team to rank in the top 10 in scoring offense and defense. However, the majority of the AFC playoff field is in the top 10 in scoring defense, so I would think that's not as huge a deal as it otherwise might have been (versus the NFC where Philly is the only playoff team with those bragging rights).Net-net, Indy is playing at too high a level for Denver to win this game at the Dome. At Invesco I wouldn't have been shocked, but Manning at home I will be extremely surprised if they don't pull one out.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Just like last year, Denver won week 17 and then in the playoffs Denver went into Indy. The results will be the same. Indy will blow them out.

 

[P Boy]

Okay, this is getting ridiculous. I don't have much confidence, but that goes directly to Shanahan and his history in playoff games when he doesn't have Elway & TD in the same backfield. However, let us remember, both IND with Manning at QB & Dungy in his career as a HC both have very poor track records in the playoffs.

But if you listen to the media here in DEN & read the opinions on the board, you would swear that IND was going to score a TD on every possession while DEN was actually going to score negative points.

Let's look at some vital numbers here and how the teams match up:

Offense vs Defense

Rushing, yards per carry, DEN O vs IND D:

DEN O 4.37 ypc #10 in NFL

IND D 4.63 ypc #30 in NFL

Passing, yards per play (includes attempts & sacks), DEN O vs IND D

DEN O 7.46 ypp #3 in NFL

IND D 6.47 ypp #23 in NFL

Rushing, yards per carry: IND O vs DEN D

IND O 4.34 ypc #12 in NFL

DEN D 3.82 ypc #9 in NFL

Passing, yards per play (includes attempts & sacks), IND O vs DEN D

IND O 8.54 ypp #1 in NFL

DEN D 5.65 ypp #8 in NFL

Turnovers:

Fumbles, DEN O vs IND D

DEN O 9 #5 in NFL

IND D 17 #2 in NFL

INTs, DEN O vs IND D

DEN O 20 #25 in NFL

IND D 19 #9 in NFL

Fumbles, IND O vs DEN D

IND O 7 #2 in NFL

DEN D 8 #28 in NFL

INTs, IND O vs DEN D

IND O 10 #2 in NFL

DEN D 12 #27 in NFL

Punts

IND 3.38 ppg #1 in NFL

DEN 4.31 ppg #8 in NFL

********************************************

So what can we gather?

Well, when IND has the ball, its running game is matched up pretty evenly & its passing game has a decent edge. The #1 passing O vs #8 passing D doesn't look that dominant, but IND's outrageous 8.54 yards per pass play actually makes that edge significantly greater than the numbers state.

When DEN has the ball, however, it has a very significant advantage both in the running game & the passing game. 20 ranking slots in both the run & the pass is a gigantic advantage no matter how you slice it. DEN can move the ball on the IND D without question - in fact, given the nature of playoff games DEN might actually have a solid edge here, despite IND's high powered passing game. Coaches get conservative in playoff games, and running has a greater premium.

In the turnover battle, we can expect that IND wins, but it looks like they win by about 1 TO. You have to figure Plummer for an INT, but the odds of a Manning INT are also greater than 50/50. That's closer than many would think. You would figure that IND won't fumble the ball, but DEN probably won't either, especially since Griffin isn't carrying the football & he's responsible for a good portion of the lost fumbles in his short time on the field this year. Overall, it does shake out that IND gets 1 more possession, though, if the numbers hold true.

IND does punt 1 less time per game than DEN, so you would have to figure that IND will get one more possession with 1 more TO & will score on that possession.

So where does the game fall in the balance? If DEN can keep from throwing INTs, they actually match up very well statistically with IND. So it pretty much comes down to Plummer not turning the ball over. If he can refrain from airmailing a ball or 2 to IND, DEN has a reasonable chance to win this game.

And this is coming from someone who is convinced that Shanahan can't win a playoff game unless he has 2 HoF caliber players in the same backfield.

 

[JohnnyU]

So it pretty much comes down to Plummer not turning the ball over. If he can refrain from airmailing a ball or 2 to IND, DEN has a reasonable chance to win this game.

That's the beauty of it, Plummer will throw INT's and lose the game for Denver

 

[houndirish]

If memory serves me correctly, wasn't it the snow game in Denver in which Jerry Porter made a habit of beating Champ?Like I said earlier, I think Champ is good but I simply don't believe that he's a "shutdown" corner.

 

[Johnny Ice]

They are SOFT! I don't think anyone is to worried about buck 80 Marvin getting angry. So they talk now lets see if they walk. I am going to bet they do. Colts are a soft team. Plain and simple and if Denver smack them in the mouth early it's over. PS . No chance in hizzzell they beat a physical team like Pitt or N.E. as they proved they can't already.

And why do you think they are soft, because Manning threw for 49 TD passes. All the soft talk from Denver is just an attempt to get Indy out of their game by trying to prove a point. Indy smacked the Ravens around on national TV remember and they claim to be one of the most physical teams in the league.

 

[P Boy]

If memory serves me correctly, wasn't it the snow game in Denver in which Jerry Porter made a habit of beating Champ?

Are you expecting snow in the dome on Sunday?

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Denver's D may be statistically impressive but when I watch them play, they just don't look that good. I could be missing something but I just don't see how Denver stops Indy's O, no matter what the stats say.

 

[Johnny Ice]

Denver's D may be statistically impressive but when I watch them play, they just don't look that good. I could be missing something but I just don't see how Denver stops Indy's O, no matter what the stats say.

Excellent point. Check this out from Len Pasquarelli:The Broncos feel they are significantly better in 2004, that having Lynch and Bailey permits them more options, that they are ready for the Colts. But here's a sobering thought: With all the upgrades, the Broncos statistically ranked fourth versus the pass this season, and allowed 17 touchdown passes, fourth fewest in the league.

Those numbers are exactly the same as the Broncos' regular-season statistics in 2003.

 

[BGP]

Denver's D may be statistically impressive but when I watch them play, they just don't look that good. I could be missing something but I just don't see how Denver stops Indy's O, no matter what the stats say.

Denver's defensive yards-per-point is pathetically low. So even if they are high in a number of traditional statistical categories, opposing offenses maximize their opportunities.D:Broncos 4459 yards, 304 points = 14.67*Many defenses of super bowl champions allow 20+ yard per point.If the Broncos allowed 20 yards per point assuming 4459 yards allowed, they would have given up 222 points. But they gave up 304, which is terrible.

 

[GoingFor2]

Here is my own statistical analysis based on Indy home games this year.

IND defense:

============

If you take a look at IND points surrendered in home games you'll see a trend. With the exception of the JAX game (which IND lost), teams which ranked in the upper tier in total offense (4 games) scored an average a bit over 3 points higher than their season average in their game at the RCA Dome (variations ranged +2.7 to +4.5) Teams besides JAX which ranked in the lower tier (3 games) scored below their season average by about 7 points (variations ranged -5.3 to -9.8)

DEN is in the top tier, they averaged 23.8 pts/game. I'd say its a safe bet that DEN puts up 27 points.

IND offense:

============

Believe it or not, IND only played 2 home games against teams ranked in the upper tier in total defense (BAL & JAX). In those 2 games, IND scored 20 and 24 points, +3.2 more than BAL's avg PA, +6.5 more than JAX's avg PA. So on average, teams ranked in the upper tier of total defense surrendered about 5 points more than their avg PA when playing in the RCA dome.

The 3rd best defense they played at home was SD (18th in total D). The remaining oppoents ranked 23,25,27,28 & 30.

DEN is ranked 4th in total D, and gives up an average of 19 pts/game. Add 5 to that and I predict IND scores 24 points.

Okay, lets even average SD into the defensive equation. This would raise the 5 pts/game to 8/pts/game, and IND scores 27 points.

So I predict DEN wins 27-24, or the game goes into OT at 27-27.