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Denver GM says Travis Henry 25-30 touches (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter darmani
- Start date
PantherPower
Footballguy
if that's true, WOW. Top 5 back.
acefootball
Footballguy
I was hoping to get him with the 8th pick at my draft at the end of August. He's never gonna make it to me.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
What was it this same GM was saying about Dayne last pre-season?
Josh the FunkDOC
Footballguy
30 is obviously an exaggeration. 20-25 would be the more reasonable range.
But seriously, I can't believe some people took as long as they did to figure out he'd be the man. Remember, Shanahan's only used a committee the last 2 years, and they gave Henry big money AND didn't bother drafting anybody. That says a lot about their expected role for him.
Hopefully this won't screw up my money league, at least...
-Josh
But seriously, I can't believe some people took as long as they did to figure out he'd be the man. Remember, Shanahan's only used a committee the last 2 years, and they gave Henry big money AND didn't bother drafting anybody. That says a lot about their expected role for him.
Hopefully this won't screw up my money league, at least...
-Josh
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
= Travis Henry
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
30 touches a game won't even give him the record. Doesn't the GM know he needs 31 touches?
fsufan
Footballguy
if he gets 30 touches a game Denver will have a new RB in 08
phthalatemagic
Footballguy
Sweet, the GM says Henry will be getting the ball at least 400 times this season. That's automatic.
I'm not that worried about the GM. But I am in love with Henry this year. He's my must have RB for 07.
J
J
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
How many touches will he get when he is injured? Given Henry has not played a full season since when....
Banger
Footballguy
Henry's injury history doesn't worry me in the least.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
2002
ericthemidget
Footballguy
It must have been a hot day at Denver camp and everyone was disoriented from "Travis Henry Kool Aid"
RabidRabbit
Footballguy
I think you better draft Mike Bell to be safe.
Joey Chestnuts
Footballguy
deez nutz
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
When is the last time he played a full season?
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
SSOG
Moderator
What's the big deal about Sundquist saying that they're comfortable getting the ball in Henry's hands 25-30 times a game? It's not like he's saying that Henry is going to AVERAGE 30 touches a game all season long. Denver was comfortable giving Portis the ball 30 times a game, too, (see the last three weeks of 2003 for details), and he averaged 25 touches per game in 2003. Terrell Davis was another guy that Denver was comfortable giving the ball 30+ times a game to, and Davis had two seasons averaging 25+ touches per game. It's not all that unrealistic- Sundquist thinks that the coaching staff is not the least bit leery of riding Henry if they have to, and he believes that Henry will be in line for a potentially heavy (but not unrealistically so) workload. And he said they'd be COMFORTABLE with it, not that they're going to do it for sure.
In short, Sundquist says that Henry is going to be carrying the load, and that the Broncos staff is comfortable with that. I appreciate the breaking news update, but this is a non-story.
In short, Sundquist says that Henry is going to be carrying the load, and that the Broncos staff is comfortable with that. I appreciate the breaking news update, but this is a non-story.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
GMs don't call the plays on the field.... IMO; your nutz to spend a 1st on any Denver RB as long as Rat face is there.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Too bad the GM does not coach the team..If he did Henry would be a Top 6 RB. Still don`t trust Shanny.
moleculo
Footballguy
I don't understand why this is so difficult. This is the easiest RB backfield to diagnose since 2003.
Of course the Broncos want to give the starting back 25-30 touches per game. if they can do that, it likely means that they have big leads in 4th quarters, and want to run out the clock. Of course this is what the front office/coaches want. However, just because the GM says that is what they want to do doesn't mean that is what will happen. THenry's final carry #'s will depend on game situation and his health.
What you should gather from this is that there will be no RBBC in Denver - at least not a 50/50 split like there has been the last couple of years. Henry's carries will not be limited by competition from Sapp/Bell.
Therefore, you should acknowledge that if Henry is healthy all season, he should be a top 10 RB with top 5 upside (assuming he stays healthy).
Of course the Broncos want to give the starting back 25-30 touches per game. if they can do that, it likely means that they have big leads in 4th quarters, and want to run out the clock. Of course this is what the front office/coaches want. However, just because the GM says that is what they want to do doesn't mean that is what will happen. THenry's final carry #'s will depend on game situation and his health.
What you should gather from this is that there will be no RBBC in Denver - at least not a 50/50 split like there has been the last couple of years. Henry's carries will not be limited by competition from Sapp/Bell.
Therefore, you should acknowledge that if Henry is healthy all season, he should be a top 10 RB with top 5 upside (assuming he stays healthy).
BusMan
Footballguy
The shark move is to draft Henry, especially if he falls to the second half of the first round.
Lord Lucan
Footballguy
I am fairly comfortable ranking Henry on the assumption he will be the clear-cut #1RB carrying the load. What I'm not quite so sure about is the goal-line situation given how they used Mike Bell there last year. Whilst I suspect that was as much to do with the perceived goal-line deficiencies of Tatum, it is something nagging at the back of my mind given Henry is going to go in the first.
moleculo
Footballguy
Based purely on my observations (never having seen Henry run in a Bronco uniform), At the stripe it goes like this:Henry>MBell>Sapp>my 6 month old daughter>Tatum Bell.
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Dexter Manley
Footballguy
From the practice reports I've read, Sapp would be the guy vulturing TD's, if that does come to fruition. He's been punishing defenders in practice, and Bell has looked very average.
I think Henry only gets pulled at the goalline if he needs a breather. JMO.
Also, while the quote about Quentin G. above is hillarious, if my memory serves me correctly, didn't Shanny basically give him the full workload until he got injured after a couple games? And that guy had nowhere the size and durability of Henry.
The biggest question w/Henry, imo, is who to handcuff him with, Sapp or Bell? At this point it sounds like Sapp, which is fantastic since Bell is going much higher in drafts.
I think Henry only gets pulled at the goalline if he needs a breather. JMO.
Also, while the quote about Quentin G. above is hillarious, if my memory serves me correctly, didn't Shanny basically give him the full workload until he got injured after a couple games? And that guy had nowhere the size and durability of Henry.
The biggest question w/Henry, imo, is who to handcuff him with, Sapp or Bell? At this point it sounds like Sapp, which is fantastic since Bell is going much higher in drafts.
switz
Footballguy
If that's true he's only good for 10 games.... but what a ten game total that will be.If you get your hands on him, if he is really getting that many touches, try to trade him with a high value around week 8.
packersfan
Footballguy
It mainly started when Tatum suffered the toe injuries. Prior to that, Mike Bell wasn't a factor when Tatum was the clear starter. But when Tatum was healthy Mike Bell was a total non-factor. Once Tatum got hurt and started playing soft, Shanahan went to Mike Bell more often - especially at the goal line. I don't see that happening this season because I think Henry is the most talented RB the Broncos have had since Portis. He has proven he can be a featured RB and do well in that role. I think Shanahan was forced into a RBBC situation last season only because Tatum Bell got hurt (yes there was a split to open the season but once it became clear Tatum was the superior RB Shanahan gave him the majority of carries). I think Shanahan wants a featured RB and that's why the Broncos signed Henry. I believe he'll be The Guy and if he can stay healthy he could post huge numbers in this offense.
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Gopher State
Footballguy
He may get 24-30, but I bet Bell gets plenty of goal line carries.
= Travis Henry
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
With Henry, it also means there are going to be some banged up and tired LBs/DBs.
SSOG
Moderator
Since "Rat face" came to town, no Denver RB has gotten at least 60% of the carries and finished on pace for a fantasy finish lower than 7th. Yeah, you'd have to be a real nut to waste a 1st rounder on a situation with such a pathetic history of success.
Why is this? Terrell Davis (twice), Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, and Reuben Droughns have all averaged 25 touches a game as the primary ballcarrier in Denver.
switz
Footballguy
This is patently false. None of them have ever had a 400 carry season, and even if you include receptions, not all of them average 25 touxhes a game.Mike Anderson's highest number of carries was 297, his next highest was 239. Even adding in his receptions, he's never seen 400 touches in a season. And in his season with his highest number of overall touches, it averaged out to 23 per game.Since "Rat face" came to town, no Denver RB has gotten at least 60% of the carries and finished on pace for a fantasy finish lower than 7th. Yeah, you'd have to be a real nut to waste a 1st rounder on a situation with such a pathetic history of success.
Why is this? Terrell Davis (twice), Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, and Reuben Droughns have all averaged 25 touches a game as the primary ballcarrier in Denver.
Terrell Davis' highest season of carries was 392. If you add in his receptions he did see 411, about 25.7/game. This was also the season before he totalled his knee.
Gary's highest number of carries was 276, total touches (receptions included) was 297, and averaged 25/game. He too was injured the following season.
Portis' season high carries was 352, his season high touches was 383.
Only Davis and Gary saw season's where they averaged 25 touches a game, and both ended up injured.
Travis Henry has never seen 25 touches per game in a season, and has only played all 16 games in a season once.
Add it up.
Hi switz,How do you see the RB carries and receptions in Denver being allocated?This is patently false. None of them have ever had a 400 carry season, and even if you include receptions, not all of them average 25 touxhes a game.Mike Anderson's highest number of carries was 297, his next highest was 239. Even adding in his receptions, he's never seen 400 touches in a season. And in his season with his highest number of overall touches, it averaged out to 23 per game.Since "Rat face" came to town, no Denver RB has gotten at least 60% of the carries and finished on pace for a fantasy finish lower than 7th. Yeah, you'd have to be a real nut to waste a 1st rounder on a situation with such a pathetic history of success.
Why is this? Terrell Davis (twice), Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, and Reuben Droughns have all averaged 25 touches a game as the primary ballcarrier in Denver.
Terrell Davis' highest season of carries was 392. If you add in his receptions he did see 411, about 25.7/game. This was also the season before he totalled his knee.
Gary's highest number of carries was 276, total touches (receptions included) was 297, and averaged 25/game. He too was injured the following season.
Portis' season high carries was 352, his season high touches was 383.
Only Davis and Gary saw season's where they averaged 25 touches a game, and both ended up injured.
Travis Henry has never seen 25 touches per game in a season, and has only played all 16 games in a season once.
Add it up.
J
Pittsburgh United
Footballguy
I'm drafting #2, so I'm married to SJax, but if I was drafting from any other spot, I'd be all over Henry too.
duaneok66
Footballguy
It's amusing to see a people waste 1st round picks on a guy who was an afterthought at this time last year . . . the Denver OL isn't gonna mask his mediocrity . . .
remember, he did so well last year that Tennesee allowed him to walk out the door . . .
yes, Fatdale was cheaper, but still . . .
remember, he did so well last year that Tennesee allowed him to walk out the door . . .
yes, Fatdale was cheaper, but still . . .
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switz
Footballguy
Last season, the RBs split 406 carries (TBell 233 57%, MBell 157), and 63 receptions (the Bells split most of the receptions 24 and 20)In 2005, 474 carries (Anderson 239 50%, TBell 173), 58 receptions (receptions were split mostly between 3 players 17, 18, 18)
In 2004, 459 carries (Droughns 275 59%), and 58 receptions (Droughns saw 32 receptions)
In 2003, 472 carries (Portis 290 61%), and 70 receptions (Portis saw 38 receptions)
In 2002, 398 carries (Portis 273 68%), and 60 receptions (Poris saw 33 receptions)
Interestingly, even including way back in 2002 when Portis was completely healthy, no RB has seen 70% of the carries in the DEN running game in the past 5 years.
However, they do run the ball alot, given an average of 442 carries per season over the past 5 years. Mind you, that's 36 carries more than last season, but 70% of that (higher than any RB has seen) is 309 carries. That's nowhere near 25 a game, as far as carries go, and to add in enough receptions to bump it up, it would require 91 receptions, almost 3 times the highest a single RB has posted in the DEN offense in the past 5 years. Extremely unlikely.
Now you have to go back to look at Henry. Henry's career average YPC is 4.1 and last year was his highest EVER at 4.5. In his best seaosn ever receiving he caught 43 balls. He's not a bad receiver, but he's not one of those RBs you just have to throw the ball to because he so good in the open field.
Given that there's a rough .5YPC bump running in the DEN system, we can expect Henry to post between 4.6 and 4.8 YPC this season. With 309 carries, thats almost 1500 yards. Nothing to smirk about at all.
Does he see more than 38 receptions? Not likely. And with an average of 7 (generous looking at his career) YPR, you can tack on about 280 yards receiving.
One thing Henry can do though, is score TDs. He was excellent near the GL in Buffalo, and looked good last season. DEN loves rushing in TDs, so Henry realistically could see 14 or 15 TDs.
Overall, Henry if used properly could put up about 268 points, making him in the running for #4-#6 RB.
The problem with the coachspeak of 25-30 touches a game, is that Henry is not particularly durable. If he does get 25-30 touches a game, he'll put up HUGE numbers. But he'll break down as well. Which is why I suggested trading him after week 8 or so. It's not that he won't perform, but that if his value is high, trade him for another high performing player that is likely to be playing during your fantasy playoffs.
SSOG
Moderator
Sunquist didn't say 25-30 CARRIES a game, he said 25-30 TOUCHES a game. Davis had two seasons with 400 TOUCHES (carries + receptions), and Portis had 328 touches in 13 games in 2003 (328 divided by 13 = 25.23). Reuben Droughns, Olandis Gary, and Mike Anderson all exceeded 300 touches in 12 games in their seasons as a starter, too. 300 touches divided by 12 games = 25 touches per game. They didn't get it over a full season, but for as long as they were the starting RB in Denver, they got 25 touches per game.That's 6 of the past 12 season where the Denver RB has averaged 25+ touches per game. The only seasons in Shanahan's tenure where Denver has had a workhorse RB (defined as any RB that received 60+% of the team's carries) and *HASN'T* averaged 25+ touches in games that they started are 1995 and 1996 (the first two years of the Shanahan era, before the running game really took off and became what it is today) and 2002 (Portis's rookie season, where he averaged about 22 touches per game once he finally won the starting job).I actually strongly agree with your projections- I don't see Henry getting more than 340-350 touches this year (under 22 touches per game), I'm just trying to point out that 25 touches per game isn't quite as absurd as it seems at first blush. Denver's got a pretty strong history of riding its RBs into the ground. They've also got a pretty strong history of turning over their top RB from year to year- and no, I don't think that's a coincidence.
ericthemidget
Footballguy
His exact quote was "Having Travis pounding it in there 25-30 time a game " . (They replayed the interview this morning and I saved it on my Stiletto. That thing rocks.) Anyway, I would interpret this as rushes, but that doesn't project into a realistic number. Just semantics really. Bottom line is that he'll be tremendously productive if it even approaches something like this.
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