Denver GM says Travis Henry 25-30 touches (1 Viewer)

[chris1969]

Sirius NFL was broadcasting from Denver camp today. Denver GM was really pumping up Travis Henry, saying that they're comfortable getting the ball in his hands 25-30 times a game. and then he'll get hurt.

That tidbit and a few others regarding the receivers are listed here.

i heard fujita was hit by a car...not sure what kind, though.

Adrian McPherson sends his regards.

corrected

 

[CA_7]

What was it this same GM was saying about Dayne last pre-season?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=239741

 

[Joe Bryant]

Why is this? Terrell Davis (twice), Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, and Reuben Droughns have all averaged 25 touches a game as the primary ballcarrier in Denver.

This is patently false. None of them have ever had a 400 carry season, and even if you include receptions, not all of them average 25 touches a game.Mike Anderson's highest number of carries was 297, his next highest was 239. Even adding in his receptions, he's never seen 400 touches in a season. And in his season with his highest number of overall touches, it averaged out to 23 per game.

Terrell Davis' highest season of carries was 392. If you add in his receptions he did see 411, about 25.7/game. This was also the season before he totalled his knee.

Gary's highest number of carries was 276, total touches (receptions included) was 297, and averaged 25/game. He too was injured the following season.

Portis' season high carries was 352, his season high touches was 383.

Only Davis and Gary saw season's where they averaged 25 touches a game, and both ended up injured.

Travis Henry has never seen 25 touches per game in a season, and has only played all 16 games in a season once.

Add it up.

Hi switz,How do you see the RB carries and receptions in Denver being allocated?

J

Last season, the RBs split 406 carries (TBell 233 57%, MBell 157), and 63 receptions (the Bells split most of the receptions 24 and 20)In 2005, 474 carries (Anderson 239 50%, TBell 173), 58 receptions (receptions were split mostly between 3 players 17, 18, 18)

In 2004, 459 carries (Droughns 275 59%), and 58 receptions (Droughns saw 32 receptions)

In 2003, 472 carries (Portis 290 61%), and 70 receptions (Portis saw 38 receptions)

In 2002, 398 carries (Portis 273 68%), and 60 receptions (Poris saw 33 receptions)

Interestingly, even including way back in 2002 when Portis was completely healthy, no RB has seen 70% of the carries in the DEN running game in the past 5 years.

However, they do run the ball alot, given an average of 442 carries per season over the past 5 years. Mind you, that's 36 carries more than last season, but 70% of that (higher than any RB has seen) is 309 carries. That's nowhere near 25 a game, as far as carries go, and to add in enough receptions to bump it up, it would require 91 receptions, almost 3 times the highest a single RB has posted in the DEN offense in the past 5 years. Extremely unlikely.

Now you have to go back to look at Henry. Henry's career average YPC is 4.1 and last year was his highest EVER at 4.5. In his best seaosn ever receiving he caught 43 balls. He's not a bad receiver, but he's not one of those RBs you just have to throw the ball to because he so good in the open field.

Given that there's a rough .5YPC bump running in the DEN system, we can expect Henry to post between 4.6 and 4.8 YPC this season. With 309 carries, thats almost 1500 yards. Nothing to smirk about at all.

Does he see more than 38 receptions? Not likely. And with an average of 7 (generous looking at his career) YPR, you can tack on about 280 yards receiving.

One thing Henry can do though, is score TDs. He was excellent near the GL in Buffalo, and looked good last season. DEN loves rushing in TDs, so Henry realistically could see 14 or 15 TDs.

Overall, Henry if used properly could put up about 268 points, making him in the running for #4-#6 RB.

The problem with the coachspeak of 25-30 touches a game, is that Henry is not particularly durable. If he does get 25-30 touches a game, he'll put up HUGE numbers. But he'll break down as well. Which is why I suggested trading him after week 8 or so. It's not that he won't perform, but that if his value is high, trade him for another high performing player that is likely to be playing during your fantasy playoffs.

Thanks. I can see that. Putting up numbers of a #4-6, he's a nice value. J

 

[JAMMIN]

AM I the only person who sees Henry as being overhyped. You cannot trust the Denver staff in general coaching , GM whatever it does not matter. I know they threw a lot of money at him but come on this is Shanny. How many years do you have to attempt to tap into the gold mine of denvers running system to find some schmuck in a later round pickup the real denver rb.

 

[LabelMan]

The GM?

You mean the guy sitting in the luxury box drinking Scotch on the rocks every Sunday?

 

[SSOG]

AM I the only person who sees Henry as being overhyped. You cannot trust the Denver staff in general coaching , GM whatever it does not matter. I know they threw a lot of money at him but come on this is Shanny. How many years do you have to attempt to tap into the gold mine of denvers running system to find some schmuck in a later round pickup the real denver rb.

Is there anyone here who honestly believes that there's even a 10% chance (outside of injury) that Travis Henry isn't going to be the workhorse this season? I'm honestly curious. Actually, I think I'll start a poll...

 

[switz]

Why is this? Terrell Davis (twice), Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, and Reuben Droughns have all averaged 25 touches a game as the primary ballcarrier in Denver.

This is patently false. None of them have ever had a 400 carry season, and even if you include receptions, not all of them average 25 touxhes a game.

Sunquist didn't say 25-30 CARRIES a game, he said 25-30 TOUCHES a game. Davis had two seasons with 400 TOUCHES (carries + receptions), and Portis had 328 touches in 13 games in 2003 (328 divided by 13 = 25.23). Reuben Droughns, Olandis Gary, and Mike Anderson all exceeded 300 touches in 12 games in their seasons as a starter, too. 300 touches divided by 12 games = 25 touches per game. They didn't get it over a full season, but for as long as they were the starting RB in Denver, they got 25 touches per game.That's 6 of the past 12 season where the Denver RB has averaged 25+ touches per game. The only seasons in Shanahan's tenure where Denver has had a workhorse RB (defined as any RB that received 60+% of the team's carries) and *HASN'T* averaged 25+ touches in games that they started are 1995 and 1996 (the first two years of the Shanahan era, before the running game really took off and became what it is today) and 2002 (Portis's rookie season, where he averaged about 22 touches per game once he finally won the starting job).I actually strongly agree with your projections- I don't see Henry getting more than 340-350 touches this year (under 22 touches per game), I'm just trying to point out that 25 touches per game isn't quite as absurd as it seems at first blush. Denver's got a pretty strong history of riding its RBs into the ground. They've also got a pretty strong history of turning over their top RB from year to year- and no, I don't think that's a coincidence.

I'm not sure where you are pulling your stats from, but I pulled mine from pro-football-reference, and as shown in my above post. Only Davis and Gary (of the backs you listed) saw 25 carries a game.Regardless, my point wasn't that Henry coudln't average 25 touches per game, it was that IF he did see that many touches, he's not likely to last the season.

 

[SSOG]

Why is this? Terrell Davis (twice), Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, and Reuben Droughns have all averaged 25 touches a game as the primary ballcarrier in Denver.

This is patently false. None of them have ever had a 400 carry season, and even if you include receptions, not all of them average 25 touxhes a game.

Sunquist didn't say 25-30 CARRIES a game, he said 25-30 TOUCHES a game. Davis had two seasons with 400 TOUCHES (carries + receptions), and Portis had 328 touches in 13 games in 2003 (328 divided by 13 = 25.23). Reuben Droughns, Olandis Gary, and Mike Anderson all exceeded 300 touches in 12 games in their seasons as a starter, too. 300 touches divided by 12 games = 25 touches per game. They didn't get it over a full season, but for as long as they were the starting RB in Denver, they got 25 touches per game.That's 6 of the past 12 season where the Denver RB has averaged 25+ touches per game. The only seasons in Shanahan's tenure where Denver has had a workhorse RB (defined as any RB that received 60+% of the team's carries) and *HASN'T* averaged 25+ touches in games that they started are 1995 and 1996 (the first two years of the Shanahan era, before the running game really took off and became what it is today) and 2002 (Portis's rookie season, where he averaged about 22 touches per game once he finally won the starting job).

I actually strongly agree with your projections- I don't see Henry getting more than 340-350 touches this year (under 22 touches per game), I'm just trying to point out that 25 touches per game isn't quite as absurd as it seems at first blush. Denver's got a pretty strong history of riding its RBs into the ground. They've also got a pretty strong history of turning over their top RB from year to year- and no, I don't think that's a coincidence.

I'm not sure where you are pulling your stats from, but I pulled mine from pro-football-reference, and as shown in my above post. Only Davis and Gary (of the backs you listed) saw 25 carries a game.Regardless, my point wasn't that Henry coudln't average 25 touches per game, it was that IF he did see that many touches, he's not likely to last the season.

Mine are from Pro-Football-Reference.com, too. Portis in 2003 got 328 touches (290 carries + 38 catches = 328 touches). He played 13 games. 328 touches divided by 13 games = 25.23 touches per game. Add Portis to the list. As for Mike Anderson and Reuben Droughns, I only counted the touches they received in games they started (since we're talking about how many touches Henry might average as a starter, not as a backup). Again, discounting all touches that they received in games that they did not start, they both averaged 25 touches per game (over 300 touches in 12 games). Once again, I am talking about average touches per game started. The key points are TOUCHES and PER GAME STARTED. Historically, 66% of the time Denver has had a workhorse, that workhorse averages 25 touches per game started. As a result, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Henry to average 25 carries per game. I personally don't think it'll happen, but it's a perfectly plausible projection.As for claims that Travis Henry would get injured... I'm assuming that you're insinuating that Travis Henry is injury-prone, since he's been injured in the past? If you really want to claim that a player is injury prone, you need a history of injuries that are potentially recurring. Players with chronic hamstring problems, for instance, are injury-prone. Someone who broke an ankle is *NOT* injury prone, since it's very, very unlikely that he has a genetic predisposition to broken ankles, and since ankle breaks are not a recurring issue. I don't know what any of his other injuries were, but one needs to examine the NATURE of every injury a player has suffered before one can legitimately call a player injury-prone. For instance, if Sam Adams stepped on Brett Favre's hand and broke it, would that suddenly make Favre more "injury prone"? If he then stepped on Brett Favre's OTHER hand and broke it, would THAT make Favre injury prone? If Sam Adams stepped on Favre's foot and broke it, would *THAT* make Favre injury prone? I mean, it would give Favre a history of injuries! Again, there's an extremely low likelihood that anyone has any sort of genetic predisposition to broken bones, so if someone has a history of broken bones, it's more an indicator of past bad luck than any quality predictor of future injury.

With Henry's solid build and history of non-recurring "fluke" injuries, I actually think there's a stronger chance that Henry finishes the season healthy than there is with a lot of smaller but "non-injury-prone" RBs.