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I agree his value didn't change, but I think what most of us owners were holding out for was that it would when Still left. Then when Still re-signed, we all realized we were still stuck in the mud. Myself, I'm hoping something, anything happens to pump up his value. I'll take any decent exit price at this point, I'm ready to move on.
Exactly. Before Stills resigned, he was still being valued very highly in the dynasty community.
Was it? Honest question, I never saw any evidence of it. I figured with Gase flat out saying they would bring someone in to replace Stills if he left, Stills leaving wouldn't have made Parker any more desirable.
But "bringing someone else in" can mean a lot of things. If they got Britt at the same contract Stills got, sure there might be concern. But if that someone is Wheaton or Kendall Wright not so much. That (along with letting Stills go) would have indicated a higher degree of confidence in Parker and a chance for a larger piece of the passing game pie. Parker only got 87 targets last year, and caught a very respectable 56 of them for 65% reception rate. That's very good. Still had nearly as many targets - 81 - but caught just 42 of them for 52%. If they continue a 50/50 split, then even if the offense grows (it almost has to, they were 31st in pass attempts last year) it's going to cap Parker's ceiling. Parker needs to see the offense grow AND get a larger portion of it. That's a lot less likely with Stills returning.
I agree with everything you said, but to be fair, the targets were not the same. Stills averaged 17.3 YPR (726 yards) and scored 9 TDs from his 81 targets, whereas Parker was only at 13.3 YPR (744 yards) with 4 TDs on his 87 targets.
Depends on league settings. All I have are rankings at this point, I haven't adjusted for NFL draft results or league settings. I'm guessing it comes out to anything top 20ish in an IDP TE premium league, top 15ish if not TE premium.
Like I said earlier, I just moved him for 2.01/brate and was pleased, and an owner that I converse with was bummed he missed out. I haven't traded with him so I was kicking around what I would have offered and he said he would have done 1.06+
I know you don't get points for near misses, but Parker had several TDs that were barely ruled incomplete for not getting both feet down. Tannehill clearly looks for him in the red zone. Just some context from watching the games.
I think he means that since a lot of them were deep shots it's less fair to compare catch %, especially since Tannehill isn't know for good deep accuracy. It's a fair point, but the delta between them is more cavernous than the increased difficulty. Give Parker all those targets and he finishes the year at 60% and 1650 yards.
Actually, in the past 3 years, only Watkins has caught 60% or more of his targets and averaged over 17 YPR (and caught 40+ passes). In 2015, Robinson was at 53% and last year DeSean Jackson was at 56% to give a couple examples. So Stills' numbers are not out of line. Sorting by 13ypr<x<14ypr and at least 50 rec, Parker (64%) is pretty close to the median (62%) over the past 3 years. I doubt Parker ever commands 169 targets in a season nor approaches 1650 yards. I honestly think he's only about 50/50 to ever reach 1000 yards in just one season.
FBG data is a little sketchy... they list 10 targets inside the 20 in his splits, but their red zone target summary only lists 9. Either way, he does get more targets there than Stills (6 is listed in his splits and 7 in the RZ summary). Jordan Cameron is vacating 14 RZ targets. Landry got a whopping 23 last year, resulting in a stunning 3 TDs.
I didn't claim Parker would to that. I suggested he'd be at 60% of the entire 168 targets - which comes out to 101 catches and would be 45 catches on those 81 targets - a 55% catch rate. Stills numbers may not be out of line but they aren't special either. In the last three years, 11 players have averaged better than 51.9% catch rates while averaging at least 17.00 YPC - including Devante Parker himself in 2015 with 52% for 19.0 YPC. I must say I'm surprised at how much lower % those longer receptions are, but Stills still doesn't bring anything that Parker doesn't. edit: Just noticed you used 40 catches minimum, I used 20. Even with that 5 other guys outperformed Stills over the last 3 years alone.
Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying Stills is special. I think both Stills and Parker are fairly unremarkable NFL WRs likely to be role players rather than stars. I expect them to continue to split targets pretty equally.Hankmoody said:
