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Warning - jumping in without reading the other 6 pages of posts...The other thing between these two is competition. I realize people think Perry is a bust and Morency/Hollings/Wells won't take carries, but they will at least give the starter rest. Personally, I think Perry has a better chance to get playing time than Morency if all else was equal, but with DD's contract coming up, the Taxans may see what Morency can provide. OR they may run his butt into the ground...
Of every thing that has been said in 200 posts, this the one that a Texans fan who has no interest in fantasy football would observe. The Texans treat DomDavis like an elite back, but he is a good, solid back. For us in the fantasy world, this is what causes the difference between the talent we see and seemingly elite fantasy numbers that are produced.
I just got done looking at the weekly numbers for Rudi and DD.Rudi was very consistent; played every game last year and averaged about 10.1 points a week.
This is what gets me. EBF keeps harping on YPC, but disregards DD's role in the passing game. If you look at YPT (Yards Per Touch) which includes yards per reception as well as yards per carry then you will see that his 4.8 ypt is equal to Kevin Jones, Corey Dillon, Reuben Droughns, and Ahman Green and higher than Curtis Martin, LT, Deuce, McGahee, Rudi Johnson and Portis.
, and Kevin Jones missed out by two TDs last year. I believe we both came up with a simialr 11, unless I can't read straight.
The more I think about yards/touch the more I realize that it's a very deceptive stat. It gives a big advantage to backs who receive a high number targets relative to carries. Since a target typically has a higher expected yard value than a carry, the statistic of yards/touch will inevitably favor pass catching backs. I'll have more on this later, but I have to head out for a few hours.
I think you're on the right track. I don't have specifics at this moment in time, but I will say right now that it is not necessary for a RB to have great receiving totals in order to have an elite season. I think Jamal Lewis undoubtedly had an elite 2003 season and he's obviously not a big time weapon in the passing game. I definitely acknowledge the importance of a diverse skill set, but a player can be a bad receiver and still be a great RB. I don't think he can be an average runner and still be a great RB.While I'm not EBF, I figure he'll say something like this:
Minimum 250 carries
Minimum 4.5 ypc
Minimum 30 receptions
Minimum 9.0 ypr
Let's go through the data dominator and see what that spits out the past five years:
Only Tiki Barber, Fred Taylor and Edgerrin James hit those marks last year. No one did in 2003. Clinton Portis, Priest Holmes and Michael Bennett did in 2002. Marshall Faulk, Holmes and Ahman Green did in 2001. Faulk and Robert Smith in 2000.
Perhaps we should eliminate the receiving numbers. Let's go with:
Minimum 250 carries
Minimum 4.5 ypc
Minimum 8 total TDs
That gives us 26 individual seasons over the past five years. Last year saw: Alexander, Dillon, Barber, James, Martin and Droughns hit those marks.
I'm sure EBF would also say the offensive scheme/surrounding talent plays a part, as Droughns is not considered an elite back by most. Scanning through that list though does provide a who's who of the top talents in the NFL. Over the past five years, the only guys that have hit those marks and don't scream "stud" are Droughns, Mike Anderson and maybe Robert Smith or Stephen Davis. The other guys are the bonafide studs in the NFL.
Outside of the six that did it last year, these guys did it at least once in the previous four: Portis, Lewis, Green, Tomlinson, McAllister, Davis, Holmes, Ricky Williams, Taylor, Faulk, Robert Smith, Mike Anderson. That coincides pretty well with EBF's original list too. My query generated 18 names, he listed 12:
Shaun Alexander
Corey Dillon
Ahman Green
Priest Holmes
Edgerrin James
Kevin Jones
Curtis Martin
Deuce McAllister
Jamal Lewis
Clinton Portis
Fred Taylor
LaDainian Tomlinson
My additions to his 12 being Droughns and Mike Anderson (addressed), Ricky Williams and Robert Smith (retired), and Stephen Davis and Marshall Faulk (has beens). He doesn't include Tiki barber because he's
I agree. Emmitt and TD come to mind as well. But please come around on Tiki Barber TIA.
That's pretty widely known amongst fantasy
. I don't know anyone who uses yards per touch with much regularity. Usually it's about a 2:1 ratio.
I love how you downplay the total yards from scrimmage the guy had last year. Again, do you really think the coach cares if he got a first down or a TD on the ground more than in the air? He moves the chains and gets TD's, and did so better than all but a handful of guys last year. But you want some stat that usually leads to high yards. That stat wasn't there, but the yards were. Sure the Means weren't that high, but the Ends are. What's more important? The Ends or the Means? Me, I'll take the results. You can enjoy the process....
Agree and I will not pass him up if I draft late in the first round and ANYWHERE in the second, he's mine if he reaches me.I don't understand the lack of cred DD gets in here, we aren't talking about a back who O-line resembles the KC Chiefs or Denver Broncos.
Ah you do know Jamal Lewis was picked WAY before DD in last year's draft, don't you? Do you also know that a year like Jamal Lewis had in 2004 doesn't come around every year, right? Why not look at last years stats DD vs Jamal Lewis. Care to guess who was better? Take out 4 of the worst games by DD and he was a better back AND you could have drafted him later.If you league counts pts per reception then you must take that into account when drafting a RB. When a RB is one dimentional, the greater the chance for a change of pace back can come in = taking scoring opps from starting back.I think you're on the right track. I don't have specifics at this moment in time, but I will say right now that it is not necessary for a RB to have great receiving totals in order to have an elite season. I think Jamal Lewis undoubtedly had an elite 2003 season and he's obviously not a big time weapon in the passing game. I definitely acknowledge the importance of a diverse skill set, but a player can be a bad receiver and still be a great RB. I don't think he can be an average runner and still be a great RB.While I'm not EBF, I figure he'll say something like this:
Minimum 250 carries
Minimum 4.5 ypc
Minimum 30 receptions
Minimum 9.0 ypr
Let's go through the data dominator and see what that spits out the past five years:
Only Tiki Barber, Fred Taylor and Edgerrin James hit those marks last year. No one did in 2003. Clinton Portis, Priest Holmes and Michael Bennett did in 2002. Marshall Faulk, Holmes and Ahman Green did in 2001. Faulk and Robert Smith in 2000.
Perhaps we should eliminate the receiving numbers. Let's go with:
Minimum 250 carries
Minimum 4.5 ypc
Minimum 8 total TDs
That gives us 26 individual seasons over the past five years. Last year saw: Alexander, Dillon, Barber, James, Martin and Droughns hit those marks.
I'm sure EBF would also say the offensive scheme/surrounding talent plays a part, as Droughns is not considered an elite back by most. Scanning through that list though does provide a who's who of the top talents in the NFL. Over the past five years, the only guys that have hit those marks and don't scream "stud" are Droughns, Mike Anderson and maybe Robert Smith or Stephen Davis. The other guys are the bonafide studs in the NFL.
Outside of the six that did it last year, these guys did it at least once in the previous four: Portis, Lewis, Green, Tomlinson, McAllister, Davis, Holmes, Ricky Williams, Taylor, Faulk, Robert Smith, Mike Anderson. That coincides pretty well with EBF's original list too. My query generated 18 names, he listed 12:
Shaun Alexander
Corey Dillon
Ahman Green
Priest Holmes
Edgerrin James
Kevin Jones
Curtis Martin
Deuce McAllister
Jamal Lewis
Clinton Portis
Fred Taylor
LaDainian Tomlinson
My additions to his 12 being Droughns and Mike Anderson (addressed), Ricky Williams and Robert Smith (retired), and Stephen Davis and Marshall Faulk (has beens). He doesn't include Tiki barber because he's
Don't take out the worst four games. Take the whole year and DD had 254 points in my league and Lewis had 149. Even add in C. Taylor's 44 points in the 4 games Lewis missed and it is still not close. I am not even taking into account points for starting another RB for Davis when he was out.
I don't downplay it. However, I don't think it proves that he's a great back. DD finished eighth in the league in opportunities last year (carries + targets). Considering that among those top eight he easily had highest % of opportunities that were targets, it's not that impressive that he had a high number of total yards. He should have. Most full-time starting NFL RBs would put up staggering total yards numbers if they were to maintain their averages over 302 carries and 85 targets.
I think the coach cares if his running back is a below average runner.
I've already explained why the totals can be misleading. What's more important is the average. The player has no control over how many times he gets to carry the ball, but he has control over what he does with those carries (and targets). Let me be clear, I'm not saying that Domanick Davis will have a bad season in 2005. If he gets the same number of carries and targets that he had last year then he will almost certainly have a great season from a fantasy standpoint. My contention is that he isn't talented enough to warrant the number of opportunities that he got last season and that he is a major risk to be replaced at some point in the near future. At the very least I would expect a decrease in the number of opportunities he receives.
Again, I'm not arguing that Davis wasn't productive from a fantasy standpoint. I'm arguing that he's not a great NFL player and that he's not a guy who warrants the amount of work that he's received. This doesn't mean I don't think he'll excel if he gets top 10 opportunities. It means I think his chances of getting top 10 opportunities are lower than his fantasy football reputation would lead one to believe. If you really want to know, I'd venture to guess that virtually every GM in the NFL would rather have a 100% Jamal Lewis than a 100% Domanick Davis. You can always find a third down back to come in and average 3.9 YPC while making some catches for you as your horse sits. You'll have a much harder time finding a workhorse type back who can average over 5.0 YPC and devastate defenses.
I doubt it. The jail time tends to be a stickler.
No doubt. But I definitely think SOME GMs would agree with me that baggage is a negative. It's not like DD isn't getting the job done.
While Lewis had a phenomenal year in 2003, that was probably his best ever and well above average for him. His other 3 full years, he averaged 4.3, 4.3 and 4.4 and had 6, 6 and 7 TDs. He has been good, but don't keep pointing to 2003 because it is the outlier.Personally in 2005, I would rather have DD than Lewis. Baltimore has improved their passing game and if Heap is healthy, Lewis is much more likely to get 15-1600 total yards and 7 TDs. DD on the other hand in 2005 is likely to get 16-1800 total yards and 10+TDs. They are both injury risks (don't forget Lewis missed two games last year), but DD also hasn't had any suspensions so far so Lewis is more risky to get suspended. If DD repeats 2004 and signs a Rudi Johnson type deal (in length) then I might think he is a better option long term as well.
EBF, I also may agree on football GMs wanting Jamal Lewis, but I did some more digging on the raw data of Lewis versus Davis and it actually surprised me. My scoring system is 1 point per 10 yards, 6 for a TD and we give bonus points for receptions (3 points for 7 receptions and 6 for 10). Also, since I didn't want to go back through all of the games, I just took total yardage and divided by 10 for both backs. I also only took out the games where both did not play a down and thus in fantasy world, you would have played a backup. On the injury/suspension front, Lewis has missed 20 games (16 in one) in 5 years and Davis has missed 3 games in 2 years.In 2003, Lewis' best year he averaged 19.43 pg. In his other 3 seasons he averaged 13.5, 12.85 and 12.63.
We have to remember that NFL GM's aren't playing for fantasy points. I am a Texan Homer, and DD fan, but to say that they'd rather have DD than Jamal Lewis bc his fantasy #'s are better is a bit overboard. Although in the age of salary caps, a base salary of $305,000 (DD) is much better than $2,853,500 (JL). Worse yet, Cap values for this year are $6.5 million for Lewis and only $421k for Dom
.
I hope you have plenty of time to think about this. I would say that right now the answer would be to let Owens loose. But if he gets into camp and then you have to retain him. I think if TO plays this year your decision will be between DD and Jamal. Jamal looks to be lean and mean from his time in the correctional facility. DD will be playing for a contract this year and thus may be more inclined to play with pain than in the past. Jamal is 1 strike away from missing 16 games. DD is one hit away from missing 16. Both have upside. Both have downside.
For some reason, I guess I don't feel sorry for you.
I think your decision is between Lewis and DD, assuming you start 2 RBs and at least 2 WRs. I think Owens will play another few years so it would be hard to drop him for a backup RB. It is tough because Lewis is a great #2, but if DD has a good 2005 and gets the contract worked out, he and LT could be a 1-2 punch that would be hard to beat when your getting 30 TDs a year.
No, NFL GM's are looking for Offensive Skill Position players to move the chains and score TD's. Only 4 other players had more yards than DD. And only 4 other players got in the endzone more than DD. Some would say that this production is a product of the system and that anyone could do it, but I don't believe that to be the case....
As I mentioned above, I agree that a real GM would not take DD over Lewis. As far as cap values go, I think Lewis is a priority to be signed long term soon (I read it in a Ravens article), so he should end up being far more cap friendly in 2006.My main point was that as good a year Lewis had in 2003, in PPR leagues DD had a better year fantasy wise (not NFL-wise) in 2004. I think the numbers show that DD will score more than Lewis as long as he starts. While Lewis will not get his job taken away, he has had as many injuries as DD and has been suspended before (not as high a risk as SOD, but still there).We have to remember that NFL GM's aren't playing for fantasy points. I am a Texan Homer, and DD fan, but to say that they'd rather have DD than Jamal Lewis bc his fantasy #'s are better is a bit overboard. Although in the age of salary caps, a base salary of $305,000 (DD) is much better than $2,853,500 (JL). Worse yet, Cap values for this year are $6.5 million for Lewis and only $421k for Dom
Sorry for the temp hijack....Ya, start two rb's, two wr's. I will attempt to deal whoever I don't keep. I am leaning toward keeping DD and dealing Holt (assuming the whole TO situation is resolved). Neglected to say that we can also keep a rookie from the prior year and I dealt for Fitz so he'll be my rook. Ideally, I'd like to package Fitz/DD for a rookie RB (JJ/KJ or SJax) and a draft pick which would leave with LT/Lewis/Owens/Holt/solid rook RB. I have until early July to submit my protected players so I have a little time.For some reason, I guess I don't feel sorry for you.
Edit to Add: Fanatic made a great point, if you dropped Owens, do you think you could trade for him later. If both DD and Lewis start out strong, you might have great trade bait and could hook up a younger stud receiver like Evans or Clayton and draft picks.
Except between December and now they haven't added a big pounder. They had ample opportunity in Free Agency and the Draft (that kid from SIU that went to the Giants could've fit the bill nicely). There is no guy on the roster that can serve that role. I think they are going to give DD all the rope he wants in 2005. He either runs with it, or ties it up into a noose and dies by it. He either stays on the field and produces behind an improved line that is in it's second year of a new blocking scheme and gets a big fat contract or he misses a bunch of time due to nagging injuries the first half of the season like he did the last 2 years and the Texans let him become an RFA and draft a RB high next year....
If DD is such a great back and the Texans are happy with him, why are they not giving him a long-term deal? Teams usually pay the guys they want to keep around and I don't see the Texans rushing to get a new deal for DD. Looks to me that they know exactly what DD is and isn't and are content to let him play another year to see if he can prove that he's a better RB than he has so far and also if he can stay healthy.We have to remember that NFL GM's aren't playing for fantasy points. I am a Texan Homer, and DD fan, but to say that they'd rather have DD than Jamal Lewis bc his fantasy #'s are better is a bit overboard. Although in the age of salary caps, a base salary of $305,000 (DD) is much better than $2,853,500 (JL). Worse yet, Cap values for this year are $6.5 million for Lewis and only $421k for Dom
What choice has Capers had? It's not like his backfield has been filled with great alternatives. Hollings has never been healthy, Wells is a scrub, and Stacey Mack was a poor man's Troy Hambrick. Davis has never had to compete for touches with a moderately talented back. It's a bit premature to act as if the Texans coaching staff has unwavering faith in his skills. I suppose the Texans could throw more, but they're nto exactly strong in that area either. Andre Johnson is their only above average receiver and Carr is still very much a work in progress at quarterback.
I think you are correct, the Texans have some time to evaluate him again. Maybe they want to make sure that he can stay healthy for a year. Don't forget, he is a restricted free agent at the end of next year, meaning that if they want him then they can match any offer given or get a draft pick (which if he does well will probably be a 1st rounder). The other side is that DD does not seem to be a Sean Taylor/Javon Walker/Anquan Boldin that will hold out because they want more money before their rookie contract is even up. He and his agent may think that if he plays well in 2005 then he will get a big fat contract so as a fourth round pick who is in a good situation, why rock the boat and ask to renegotiate before the contract is up. Based on pigskin's cap amount the Texans do not need to renegotiate to bring his cap number in line so they have the flexibility to wait or to have talks with his agent without making it public. Since his agent isn't Drew Rosenhaus, it might be that the Texans have had discussions but it isn't dirty laundry trying to make things happen.If DD is such a great back and the Texans are happy with him, why are they not giving him a long-term deal? Teams usually pay the guys they want to keep around and I don't see the Texans rushing to get a new deal for DD. Looks to me that they know exactly what DD is and isn't and are content to let him play another year to see if he can prove that he's a better RB than he has so far and also if he can stay healthy.We have to remember that NFL GM's aren't playing for fantasy points. I am a Texan Homer, and DD fan, but to say that they'd rather have DD than Jamal Lewis bc his fantasy #'s are better is a bit overboard. Although in the age of salary caps, a base salary of $305,000 (DD) is much better than $2,853,500 (JL). Worse yet, Cap values for this year are $6.5 million for Lewis and only $421k for Dom
This may be the dumbest post in the thread. So why don't they just throw a bucket of money at a guy that they can have for the year for $300K? He's under contract for peanuts. After this season he's a restricted FA. Why would they jump out and throw him more money when they don't have to? Did you see the Patriots sign Brady to a long term deal after the first SB? Or the second? Nope. Not till the 3rd because they didn't have to. Brady could've held out and then they would've had to deal with it but not before. It's the same reason why the Eagles won't negotiate with TO. He's under contract fairly cheap. If he wants to try to force their hand by holding out then they'll deal with it then. But they aren't going to ink the guy again to more money.
It's not like they ran out and grabbed one of those stud RB's in the draft via a trade or grabbed Arrington. They didn't make an attempt to snag Alexander, Edge or Henry to my knowledge either. They grabbed a guy to be a backup in the 3rd. A guy that could fill in if necessary but they hope doesn't. What was your argument about high draft picks? He's a 3rd rounder, what are your expectations of him being a star? Mine aren't all that high. By not addressing the RB position in Free Agency or grabbing a RB in the first couple of rounds speaks of faith in the current starter....
It's funny how people see things so differently, this isn't directed at you.A couple years ago everyone said Chris Brown (3rd round) was drafted to be the heir apparent to Eddie George.This year according to many Frank Gore (3rd) was drafted to be the man in San Francisco.But Morency (3rd) was drafted to be a backup according to everyone.People see what they want to. I agree that teams aren't banking on their 3rd rounders to become stars, if they do great, but it isn't expected. Just funny how one guy drafted in the 3rd is the heir apparent while another is just a backup.One man's trash is anothers treasure, and vice versa.
The top three RBs went in the top five picks. It would have cost a lot to move up and the team would have sacrificed other needs. I never said that RB is Houston's biggest need. However, it's a weak argument to suggest that they're not interested in upgrading at RB because they didn't trade up in the draft. As for Arrington, he was a consensus second-third round talent. Houston didn't even have a second round pick this year, so they weren't in a good position to move up.
I would venture to guess that all of those guys would come with big time salary demands. That's not to mention that Alexander and Edge have a fairly high amount of mileage for a RB and that Henry may not be much of an upgrade over DD.
Did Miss Cleo tell you this? How do you know their reasons? It seems like pure speculation.
You're right that draft position correlates with NFL success, but each case is unique. That's why you can't assume that Morency will beat out Davis just because he was drafted 28 spots higher. You also can't assume that he won't be good because he was only a thid round pick. I already explained why I factor draft position into my evaluation of Domanick Davis. He has mediocre measurables and has been an inconsistent runner. If this weren't true then I would disregard his draft position.
Nope, I just used your criteria for what a player will do in the NFL although I used the criteria before I had a mountain of NFL stats in front of me. Vernand Morency, was a 3rd rounder. Not a high draft pick, which, according to you is a strike against the kid and right now it is because he hasn't played in the NFL. Then I looked at his measurables, another of your favorite stats. Morency didn't work out at the Combine. Some sort of Hamstring problem. Instead he worked out on campus for the scouts. Here were his measurables at the campus workout:
One more thing about correlations. Correlations can't be used in terms of determing causation. So one cannot look at draft position and assume that a player will be a good or bad NFL player based on draft position. One needs to wait for time to support the correlation or refute that. In this case time has shown us part of a strong year for DD in 2003 and a dominant year in 2004, both by NFL and FFB standards. You've got draft position for a 3rd year player, Combine Measureables for a 3rd year player, rumor that the coach is unhappy with the player (but no links as to that fact), and a low YPC. What else do you have? Tea leaves and chicken bones? Maybe the whisper from a little birdy?
First, a little background info. I do have a soft spot for DD because I live in Houston and actually traded up to draft him in the 3rd round of rookie dynasty draft. (I no longer have Davis on my squad as I moved in a multi-player deal) Davis first caught my eye when he tore up a then 10-1 Illinois team- running for 125+ yards and 4 tds. He had one run where he was stopped cold at about the two and simply refused to be denied and another td run where cut back beautifully and scored from about 25 yards out. The next year in a bowl game against Texas, he looked much better than Toefield.EBF- I appreciate your work and insights into difeerent metrics as they relate to performance. I do think sometimes you confuse measurables with talent. I see them as different things. You have noted in the past that you will no longer simply take a wr with great measurables if he has poor hands- that poor hands are not easily refined. I think DD has some talent that is very difficult to measure-specifically:
While I agree with your premise, Brady did indeed get a new deal after the Superbowl- and it was a very nice deal for a 6th round pick who had only been in the league for 2 years and started 14 regular season games. I think it was a 5 year 25M deal.
They threw the guy a bone, they didn't break the bank to keep him. They gave him enough money to keep the guy happy after he delivered them to the promise land but they didn't get crazy and throw him Manning money (Eli or Peyton). They didn't need to motivate the guy to do well, they just needed to keep him happy. The Texans need to motivate DD into not just playing with injuries, but playing well with injuries....
The shuttle and cone drills relate to acceleration and lateral agility. I don't have Morency rated high on my board, but I find it interesting that you claim to know why the Texans drafted him. He has similar measurables to DD and was a higher draft pick, yet you haven't acknowledged him as a serious threat to steal carries.
Thomas JonesYards Per Carry - 4.0So, no, I didn't talk to Miss Cleo, I just used your method of rating talent. Is there something else you would like to add into your equation for rating talent or would you like to get back to your argument about DD isn't better than Thomas Jones, he just has more opportunities!?!?
Yes, Thomas Jones put up similiar production in both 2003 and 2004 to DD in terms of production per touch. But so what?Thomas Jones simply has never gotten a lot of touches - either because of injury, attitude or performance. I would ask you look back to 2003, where Davis played with David Carr in year 2, David Carr the separated shoulder version after the Buffalo game (Both versions combined threw for single digit td's), Tony Banks, and Dave Ragonne. All you need to know is that Tony Banks was the best QB they had in terms of performance that year. Despite being a rookie, Davis had more rushing yards in that season and more tds than Jones has ever been able to produce. That trend continued last year.
Unless you arein a pt/rec league, I'd keep the three RBs and one of the WRs and then worry about building a WR corps rounds 1-3. But, that's just me - and if you are in a pt/rec league, I'd dump Lewis in favor of the other WR. DD and LT are way too valuable catching the ball in pt/rec leagues to dump them.
