Donald Brown Could Emerge as Starter this Year (1 Viewer)

[identikit]

Yahoo Sports’ Jason Cole reports Indianapolis Colts second-year RB Donald Brown could be starting or at least getting the lion’s share of the playing time next season due to RB Joseph Addai’s declining play. Addai still fits what the Colts are trying to do with their running game, but he just doesn’t appear to have the explosiveness of his first two seasons. Brown showed better quickness and decisiveness as a rookie, although hardly enough to draw a conclusion at this point. If the Colts running game is going to improve, it definitely needs more quickness and decisiveness from whoever plays running back.

http://www.ffmastermind.com/quickbits.php

 

[Sweet Love]

Yahoo Sports’ Jason Cole reports Indianapolis Colts second-year RB Donald Brown could be starting or at least getting the lion’s share of the playing time next season due to RB Joseph Addai’s declining play. Addai still fits what the Colts are trying to do with their running game, but he just doesn’t appear to have the explosiveness of his first two seasons. Brown showed better quickness and decisiveness as a rookie, although hardly enough to draw a conclusion at this point. If the Colts running game is going to improve, it definitely needs more quickness and decisiveness from whoever plays running back.

http://www.ffmastermind.com/quickbits.php

Interesting that Cole uses Addai's declining play as a reason. If anything, the guy looked much better in 09 than 08 and that is partially what kept Brown on the bench. With that said, I think it is only a matter of time before Brown emerges and with the fact that Beanie played well towards the end of 09 and the annual rookie hype this year, Brown is looking very good as a RB who can be taken in the mid rounds and work out well.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

hardly enough to draw a conclusion at this point.

SWEET

 

[Lord Fantasy]

In redraft you can get them both for cheap. Might not be a bad idea this year to do that (get both) and see how it shakes out.

 

[baconisgood]

The number 1 job of an Indy RB is to pick up the blitz, #2 is his value as a receiver- being explosive between the tackles is nice but until Indy shows confidence in Brown picking up the blitz and as a receiver it is unlikely that he is going to get the bulk of the carries.

 

[r3t2]

gosh, last year's first-round pick "could" start this year? way to go out on a limb there jason.

that's the kind of insight i need to win my league this year.

 

[Crippler]

The number 1 job of an Indy RB is to pick up the blitz, #2 is his value as a receiver- being explosive between the tackles is nice but until Indy shows confidence in Brown picking up the blitz and as a receiver it is unlikely that he is going to get the bulk of the carries.

Jason Cole needs to read this right here. Addai had an excellent season for the Colts last year and Peyton thinks he is dependable. Jason own opinion means nothing. LOL @ best season in a while and excellent SB as declining

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

The number 1 job of an Indy RB is to pick up the blitz, #2 is his value as a receiver- being explosive between the tackles is nice but until Indy shows confidence in Brown picking up the blitz and as a receiver it is unlikely that he is going to get the bulk of the carries.

Exactly, until Peyton trusts Brown as a blocker and receiver he's going to be limited in his touches. I don't think Peyton felt that way when he was screaming "[GD] it Donald!" while running away from an unblocked blitzer during the playoffs. Beyond that, Donald averaged 3.6/carry last year. Why would anyone assume that he's an upgrade over Addai (3.8).

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

Yahoo Sports’ Jason Cole reports Indianapolis Colts second-year RB Donald Brown could be starting or at least getting the lion’s share of the playing time next season due to RB Joseph Addai’s declining play. Addai still fits what the Colts are trying to do with their running game, but he just doesn’t appear to have the explosiveness of his first two seasons. Brown showed better quickness and decisiveness as a rookie, although hardly enough to draw a conclusion at this point. If the Colts running game is going to improve, it definitely needs more quickness and decisiveness from whoever plays running back.

http://www.ffmastermind.com/quickbits.php

This quote is a perfect example of why I'm going out of my way to not read too many articles/rankings from FF "experts" this year. There are so many FF sites that always need new content and you end up a lot of "reports" like this one that are nothing more than postulating by the author. There's absolutely nothing useful in there at all - it's all speculation and opinion but it sure as heck reads like it's full of handy insider info that you should have in your back pocket going into the season.

 

[Jerry Lawler]

In the spirit of Jason Cole's safe, useless speculation, I'll add my own.

Clearly, the Colts didn't draft Donald Brown to spend his career as the lesser half of a committee. If he develops as expected, he should be able to produce well if Addai gets injured. Until then, I think Addai gets about 60% of the work. Here's why:

1) The Colts O-line simply isn't very good at run blocking anymore. I think they'll improve a bit in short yardage situations, but remain near the bottom of the league in yards and yards per carry.

2) Addai's lack of explosive plays doesn't really hurt the Colts as much as it would other teams because Manning can routinely move the ball between the 20's, as long as nobody makes a big mistake.

3) Despite his limitations, Addai is very smart, dependable, and versatile. Brown will probably learn which blitzer to pick up and when to leak out of the backfield for a dumpoff pass, but Brown is not likely to ever be as good as Addai at avoiding traffic in the backfield and scrapping for 1 or 2 yards to keep the offense out of 3rd and long.

I still think Brown will have a successful career, but this season depends a lot on Addai's health.

 

[Sputnikv8]

....So you're sayin theres a chance.... YES!

 

[baconisgood]

Lest people forget Addai was the 30th pick in the draft and ran a 4.35 @ 214 lbs. Brown was the 27th pick and ran a 4.51 @ 210 lbs. Donald Brown isn't some vastly superior physical specimen that is inevitably going to get his shot.

 

[Texasmouth]

Looks like a lot of Addai owners posted in this thread....

I am one myself...so I guess I should agree...

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Looks like a lot of Addai owners posted in this thread....I am one myself...so I guess I should agree...

I'm a Brown owner, so I'd really like him to start or at least get 50% of the touches this year. I just don't see a compelling reason for the Colts to do that.

 

[TS Garp]

Cole's way off in his criticism of Addai. That said, I do think Brown's the ideal buy low/post-hype sleeper right now and if you're looking for a guy who you can be drafted late and potentially give you early round value, you've found him.

 

[Thomsen]

I really didn't see enough from Brown last year so be certain, he'll have a bigger role this year. I know Addai is in a contract year, and the Colts need to find out ff Brown is any good. BUt still, Brown did nothing last year and Addai had a very good year. I like Addai as a good value pick in PPR.

 

[videoguy505]

until Peyton trusts Brown as a blocker and receiver he's going to be limited in his touches. I don't think Peyton felt that way when he was screaming "[GD] it Donald!" while running away from an unblocked blitzer during the playoffs.

First thing I thought of.

 

[nyy45]

The number 1 job of an Indy RB is to pick up the blitz, #2 is his value as a receiver- being explosive between the tackles is nice but until Indy shows confidence in Brown picking up the blitz and as a receiver it is unlikely that he is going to get the bulk of the carries.

TRUE THAT. Short sweet and the truth.

 

[cr8f]

It isn't hard to see the Addai and Brown owners by reading this thread.

 

[*****]

I am a Brown dynasty owner. Some things to like about Brown include:

1. Players frequently make a jump from year one to year two. Ray Rice is a great recent example.

2. Addai is in the final year of his contract, so the Colts will want to see enough of Brown to make a decision about Addai's future with the team.

3. If Brown can win the job for the next few years, then his period of as the top back on the Colts could coincide with Peyton's eventual decline. The Colts (including Peyton) are willing to use a more balanced attacked if it means more wins. If Peyton needs to lean on the run more in, say, 2012 and beyond then Brown could be in his prime when it is time for him to take some of the load off of Peyton in a few years (or sooner).

I am not saying that there isn't plenty to like about Addai or dislike about Brown's situation. And a lot has to fall in to place for Brown to emerge under point number 3. But these are considerations that I, personally, am considering as I decide whether to keep Brown or trade him away.

 

[mlball77]

This is the time of year when beat writer opinion/analysis receives too much credence, imo.

“Player X could start if A, B and C occur.” -Not exactly information that helps me with my analysis of a player all that much. If the beat writer can tell me how a player is looking at camp, about his condition this time of year, his rapport with his team and comments from key coaches and mgmt… this is stuff that I can use.

D. Brown is a first round pick that was playing decent earlier in 2009 compared to how he finished after his injury issue. With Addai a FA after this season, it makes sense that the Colts will try to get a better feel for what they have in Brown. That said, Addai was the better all around RB last year and Brown has his work cut out for him if he wants to be the lead back.

IMO, this situation has RBBC written all over it, like what Polian talked about when he drafted Brown and how it looked the first 5 weeks or so last year.

 

[TS Garp]

It isn't hard to see the Addai and Brown owners by reading this thread.

Fair enough. I actually don't own Brown -- I just think it would be crazy not to see that he represents great value based on his ADP.

 

[Lash]

was the "GD Donald" because he didnt pick up blitz or because he didn't run a pass pattern in the flat, i thought i remembered PM rolling out with no one in the flat

i'm at work and youtube is blocked so can't see it

 

[Jerry Lawler]

I think Brown failed to help out on the blind side, causing Manning to scramble to the flat to buy time. I don't know if a rollout to the right is even in the Colts' playbook.

We might be making too much of this incident though. Brown had a rough year in pass protection, but I haven't seen anything to suggest that he can't learn to pass block. I expect him to improve in this area.

 

[baconisgood]

With Addai a FA after this season

off the top of my head theJets, Bills, Browns, Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Texans, Titans, Jags, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Vikings, Bears, Lions, Saints, Panthers, Bucs, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks and Rams are all planning on starting RBs they drafted, that's 25/32 teams Of the othersBengals picked Benson off the scrap heapChiefs are probably starting Jamal Charles and TJ was a Cheap FANE is starting either cheap veteran FAs or their own draft picksWashington is going with a committee of over the hill FAsThe dolphins drafted their preferred starter in Brown- and Ricky is an odd caseThe Packers traded for Ryan GrantOnly Atlanta signed their starting RB as a FA in or even near his prime. It seems unlikely to me that Addai will get a significant enough offer to go somewhere else unless a combination of things happen- like Brown playing very well and Mike Hart showing that he can be a quality NFL backup.The Colts are serious (ldo) contenders they aren't going to significantly decrease their chances during a regular season game to get a look at a guy when there is a good chance Addai is back next year (if there is football).

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I think Brown failed to help out on the blind side, causing Manning to scramble to the flat to buy time. I don't know if a rollout to the right is even in the Colts' playbook.We might be making too much of this incident though. Brown had a rough year in pass protection, but I haven't seen anything to suggest that he can't learn to pass block. I expect him to improve in this area.

Blocking is the most overlooked factor when evaluating running backs. The ones that can't protect don't get PT. Addai is far and away the better pass protector. I think it's still a 60/40 split in Addai's favor.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

This was an analysis previously done for Michael Bush. But the telling statistic throws an auspicious light on Donald Brown. He is the worst at getting caught behind LOS. FWIW.

Runs for No Gain & Percentage of Runs for No Gain

1) Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders, 123 Carries, 591 Yards, 14 RFNG, PORFNG 11.4

2) Shonn Greene, New York Jets, 163 Carries, 847 Yards, 22 RFNG, PORFNG 13.5

3) Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys, 79 Carries, 392 Yards, 11 RFNG, PORFNG 13.9

4) Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints, 183 Carries, 936 Yards, 26 RFNG, PORFNG 14.2

Michael Bush is the standout of the study, topping the list of runners with 11.4 percent of his 123 carries failing to gain yardage. Bush’s figure is a clear 2 percent better than anybody else in the study, and the next three players all ran behind excellent run-blocking units.

the worst players in ‘Percentage of Runs for No Gain study’, are:

Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts, 94 Carries, 327 Yards, 28 RFNG, PORFNG 29.8

Steve Slaton, Houston Texans, 131 Carries, 450 Yards, 38 RFNG, PORFNG 29.0

Glen Coffee, San Francisco 49ers, 83 Carries, 226 Yards, 22 RFNG, PORFNG 26.5

Chester Taylor, Minnesota Vikings, 103 Carries, 383 Yards, 27 RFNG, PORFNG 26.2

Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants, 163 Carries, 777 Yards, 41 RFNG, PORFNG 25.2

Jerious Norwood, Atlanta Falcons, 76 Carries, 254 Yards, 19 RFNG, PORFNG 25.0

Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions, 217 Carries, 747 Yards, 52 RFNG, PORFNG 24.0

Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos, 247 Carries, 947 Yards, 59 RFNG, PORFNG 23.9

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings, 365 Carries, 1,572 Yards, 87 RFNG, PORFNG 23.8

Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 115 Carries, 414 Yards, 27 RFNG, PORFNG 23.5

many will be surprised to see Adrian Peterson Ahmad Bradshaw and others were on the bad list, but for every fourth snap they get it will end at the Line of Scrimmage

 

[mlball77]

With Addai a FA after this season

off the top of my head theJets, Bills, Browns, Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Texans, Titans, Jags, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Vikings, Bears, Lions, Saints, Panthers, Bucs, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks and Rams are all planning on starting RBs they drafted, that's 25/32 teams Of the othersBengals picked Benson off the scrap heapChiefs are probably starting Jamal Charles and TJ was a Cheap FANE is starting either cheap veteran FAs or their own draft picksWashington is going with a committee of over the hill FAsThe dolphins drafted their preferred starter in Brown- and Ricky is an odd caseThe Packers traded for Ryan GrantOnly Atlanta signed their starting RB as a FA in or even near his prime. It seems unlikely to me that Addai will get a significant enough offer to go somewhere else unless a combination of things happen- like Brown playing very well and Mike Hart showing that he can be a quality NFL backup.The Colts are serious (ldo) contenders they aren't going to significantly decrease their chances during a regular season game to get a look at a guy when there is a good chance Addai is back next year (if there is football).

Good post for sure. But two assumptions I don't fully agree with: 1) If Addai leaves Indy after this year as a FA, it won't necessarily be as a starter somewhere else. The list you provided was great, but it is definitely possible, imo, that he could go elsewhere to be part of a RBBC for a new team and not the unquestioned lead back (or is he a RFA?... if so, that changes things a bit) and 2) Just because the Colts want to further evaluate their first round pick from last year doesn't mean they are putting the team in a far worse situation to succeed. If Brown isn't cutting it and it's clear, he won't play... I won't argue that at all. But if they are seeing flashes, I believe he'll continue to get looks.And for the record, my guess is that Addai re-signs with Indy. That said, I still think the coaches/mgmt want to evaluate Brown more fully to know what they have in not only him, but their RB situation as a whole. Barring injuries, my guess is a full fledged RBBC this year. -Just my opinion.

 

[Cripster]

Isn't Addai a free agent after 2010? If so, this may be his swan song. I see a much more even split in 2010 . I do not see Brown being the clear number 1. I thought Brown look superior to Addai in preseason. However, he was injured and I fimly believed that held him back. The Colts don't miss on picks very often. Brown should be the primary back in 2011 but he will get no more than 50% of the touches if Addai is healthy.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

until Peyton trusts Brown as a blocker and receiver he's going to be limited in his touches. I don't think Peyton felt that way when he was screaming "[GD] it Donald!" while running away from an unblocked blitzer during the playoffs.

First thing I thought of.

Love when folks take real plays and use them to back up a point. Really nice job VG.

That said, I think he should be cursing his LT. Sure, Donald should have helped block Manning's blind side but the Ravens' DE just blew by the LT.

Good stuff here

 

[Dragon1952]

"Declining play" = around 1160 combined yds, 13 TD's, nearly 3.8 ypc and just 1 fumble, and top 7 RB in most PPR x 1 leagues.

 

[az_prof]

I think Brown failed to help out on the blind side, causing Manning to scramble to the flat to buy time. I don't know if a rollout to the right is even in the Colts' playbook.We might be making too much of this incident though. Brown had a rough year in pass protection, but I haven't seen anything to suggest that he can't learn to pass block. I expect him to improve in this area.

Blocking is the most overlooked factor when evaluating running backs. The ones that can't protect don't get PT. Addai is far and away the better pass protector. I think it's still a 60/40 split in Addai's favor.

This is very true and blocking keeps a lot of promising rookie RBs on the bench. But you are assuming that Brown won't improve after a year of experience and an off season to study the playbook. Two things that suggest to me that Brown will be a much improved blocker:1) He's smart. Just listen to any interview of the guy.2) He's a solid character guy. Blocking means knowing the playbook inside and out, which takes intelligence, and it takes desire. I think Brown will be fine in this area; of all teams blitz pickup for IND is probably one of the most complicated because Peyton is changing the play at the line of scrimmage half the time.In Addai's favor:1) He is a hard competitor and rose to the challenge of Brown last year2) He knows his role in that offense and has proven itPeople who question Brown being more explosive and rely on limited carries over the course of the whole season are overlooking his injury. Prior to the injury he did look more explosive.Addai's contract situation will play a role. IND would be crazy not to want to give Brown more reps to judge whether or not they need to sign Addai to a long term deal. Assuming both players stay healthy, Addai will get more plays but it will be closer to 50/50 than it was last year. Neither will be great in redraft unless one of them gets hurt. For dynasty, Addai needs another strong year or he will be gone. If Brown makes a huge sophomore leap, things could change very fast and Addai could find himself in Willis McGahee's situation.

 

[baconisgood]

Addai's contract situation will play a role. IND would be crazy not to want to give Brown more reps to judge whether or not they need to sign Addai to a long term deal.

Brown is in line to get touches already- he averaged 11 touches a game for his first 4 games last year. Will the Colts really need to give him >30% of RB touches just to figure out what to do with Addai?

 

[az_prof]

Addai's contract situation will play a role. IND would be crazy not to want to give Brown more reps to judge whether or not they need to sign Addai to a long term deal.

Brown is in line to get touches already- he averaged 11 touches a game for his first 4 games last year. Will the Colts really need to give him >30% of RB touches just to figure out what to do with Addai?

Getting 11 touches in four games doesn't prove he can be a featured back. Nothing Brown did last year confirmed that. They can't let Addai go until they know Brown can be a featured back. I think you need a few games of getting 20 plus touches to know that one way or another and I think you need closer to 200 carries on the season to know that.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Addai's contract situation will play a role. IND would be crazy not to want to give Brown more reps to judge whether or not they need to sign Addai to a long term deal.

Brown is in line to get touches already- he averaged 11 touches a game for his first 4 games last year. Will the Colts really need to give him >30% of RB touches just to figure out what to do with Addai?

Getting 11 touches in four games doesn't prove he can be a featured back. Nothing Brown did last year confirmed that. They can't let Addai go until they know Brown can be a featured back. I think you need a few games of getting 20 plus touches to know that one way or another and I think you need closer to 200 carries on the season to know that.

The writing seemed on the wall last year for Addai to be usurped by Brown. Everyone was saying that Addai was made of glass and it would be Brown who would swoop in and have a terriffic second half as it was assumed that Addai would be injured and out. Well, it turned out that Addai did get hurt, but the irony was that by the time it happened, Brown was already licking his wounds and out and that 20 plus carry game we were all salivating for didn't happen. Maybe it's Brown whose made of glass? The irony...I remember a little swing pass that Brown took from Manning last year and he looked like a little bottle rocket running down the sidelines for a long touchdown. As a Brown owner, that made me get my hopes up. Brown has some talent. But he can't do the intangibles needed in such a complex offense yet. I don't doubt his smarts, but the fact is that Addai is just more prepared and looks tougher. You could see Peyton cussing in Brown's direction after a number of plays. Then he'd be out for the rest of the game and Addai would block and hold the point of attack long enough for Peyton to do his magic.Addai is nothing special as a feature running back, but he is underrated because of the intangibles he brings. Brown's talent is about as good, but he needs to do more to take away the starter job. This duo looks like a valuable RBBC to own, but if they split will be a nighmare to owners since they will vulture each other, and worse you won't know who is the man from week to week. Andi it is a pass first team. If an injury happens though, that changes everything.

 

[JohnnyU]

The Colts will let Addai walk after the 2010 season. Until then he's the starter, end-of-story.

 

[Thomsen]

Addai's contract situation will play a role. IND would be crazy not to want to give Brown more reps to judge whether or not they need to sign Addai to a long term deal.

Brown is in line to get touches already- he averaged 11 touches a game for his first 4 games last year. Will the Colts really need to give him >30% of RB touches just to figure out what to do with Addai?

Getting 11 touches in four games doesn't prove he can be a featured back. Nothing Brown did last year confirmed that. They can't let Addai go until they know Brown can be a featured back. I think you need a few games of getting 20 plus touches to know that one way or another and I think you need closer to 200 carries on the season to know that.

Not sure about that, in my opinion he needs to earn those extra touches. Give him 5 carries, if he produces, give hime some more. You don't just give a player 20 touches during a game. If he hasn't done anything with the first 10, get him off the field. You've got to grab the opportunities you get, and not piss your all-world QB off.I'm sure Brown has talent, and can surpass Addai, but we must not forget that takes a special player, because Addai does what he does really well, and the Colts love him for it.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

The Colts will let Addai walk after the 2010 season.

If this happens, Brown is one of the best values going on the trade market in dynasty leagues right now, because his value doesn't reflect that at all.I tend to think they let Addai go if Brown stays healthy this year, but re-sign Addai if Brown has another injury-plagued season.

 

[JohnnyU]

The Colts will let Addai walk after the 2010 season.

If this happens, Brown is one of the best values going on the trade market in dynasty leagues right now, because his value doesn't reflect that at all.I tend to think they let Addai go if Brown stays healthy this year, but re-sign Addai if Brown has another injury-plagued season.

The perception is that Brown isn't very good. I don't agree with this even though I just traded him for a 2011 1st rd pick. Brown will probably get his shot after this season. Let's also not forget that the Colts could draft a RB high in the draft next year if they don't feel Brown is a suitable replacement for Addai. Either way, I truly believe that Addai is history after this season.

 

[Jerry Lawler]

Seems like Addai would be a good candidate for a franchise tag in 2011. With the short careers of RB's, they usually aren't worth long-term contracts, but their year-to-year value is well worth top 5 $$$ for teams competing for a championship. Of course, this is all assuming that terms like "franchise tags" and "professional football" still exist in 2011.

 

[Buckna]

The Colts will let Addai walk after the 2010 season.

If this happens, Brown is one of the best values going on the trade market in dynasty leagues right now, because his value doesn't reflect that at all.I tend to think they let Addai go if Brown stays healthy this year, but re-sign Addai if Brown has another injury-plagued season.

The perception is that Brown isn't very good. I don't agree with this even though I just traded him for a 2011 1st rd pick. Brown will probably get his shot after this season. Let's also not forget that the Colts could draft a RB high in the draft next year if they don't feel Brown is a suitable replacement for Addai. Either way, I truly believe that Addai is history after this season.

Addai will also be 28 in 2011, not the kiss of death, but it's not like he'll be a spring chicken.

 

[az_prof]

The Colts will let Addai walk after the 2010 season.

If this happens, Brown is one of the best values going on the trade market in dynasty leagues right now, because his value doesn't reflect that at all.I tend to think they let Addai go if Brown stays healthy this year, but re-sign Addai if Brown has another injury-plagued season.

I agree with you Bloom. This is a make or break year for Brown. He doesn't need to seize the starting job and I doubt he will, but he needs to look good when he gets chances, vastly improve his pass blocking, and stay healthy. If he does, he gets the job in 2011. If he doesn't Addai gets another two or three years.

 

[JohnnyU]

The Colts will let Addai walk after the 2010 season.

If this happens, Brown is one of the best values going on the trade market in dynasty leagues right now, because his value doesn't reflect that at all.I tend to think they let Addai go if Brown stays healthy this year, but re-sign Addai if Brown has another injury-plagued season.

I agree with you Bloom. This is a make or break year for Brown. He doesn't need to seize the starting job and I doubt he will, but he needs to look good when he gets chances, vastly improve his pass blocking, and stay healthy. If he does, he gets the job in 2011. If he doesn't Addai gets another two or three years.

Maybe they draft Ryan Williams