Draft Capital And How We're Feeling About Pierce And Spiller (1 Viewer)

[socrates]

As for Cook, how many times do we have to go to get burned on smaller backs (see Michael Carter) before we learn?  Carter had a good rookie season and they still drafted the best RB in the 2022 class.

Like Cook this year, Carter was going at the beginning of Round 2 last year.  I think all you should realistically hope for is some PPR value from any of these smaller backs, and beyond that, anything is a bonus.  There are probably cheaper draft investments when it comes to PPR special RBs (Gainwell last season, and Pierre Strong/Kyren Williams this year), so I get your point with a pick in the first two rounds of rookie drafts.  In Dynasty, perhaps too much emphasis is put on landing spot.  We saw it with CEH.  We saw it with Michael Carter.  Cooks may be in that same vein.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

As for Cook, how many times do we have to go to get burned on smaller backs (see Michael Carter) before we learn?  Carter had a good rookie season and they still drafted the best RB in the 2022 class.

What did size have to do with it - did Carter get smaller after they drafted him? Carter was never expected to be more than a committee back (and that's all he was last season) by the Jets and Jets fans. He was "replaced" this season because the Jets were in position to add another dynamic weapon to help their young QB.

There are plenty of "small" feature backs in the NFL right now - I can't believe people are still clinging to that one.

 

[JohnnyU]

What did size have to do with it - did Carter get smaller after they drafted him? Carter was never expected to be more than a committee back (and that's all he was last season) by the Jets and Jets fans. He was "replaced" this season because the Jets were in position to add another dynamic weapon to help their young QB.

There are plenty of "small" feature backs in the NFL right now - I can't believe people are still clinging to that one.

 It seems to me that smaller backs are being taken too early in fantasy drafts with the thought they will get more work than they do.  That is all my point is.

 

[socrates]

What did size have to do with it - did Carter get smaller after they drafted him? Carter was never expected to be more than a committee back (and that's all he was last season) by the Jets and Jets fans. He was "replaced" this season because the Jets were in position to add another dynamic weapon to help their young QB.

There are plenty of "small" feature backs in the NFL right now - I can't believe people are still clinging to that one.

Austin Ekeler is small at 200 pounds.  Elijah Mitchell is 200, but I don't know how secure his hold is on a "feature back" role.  Singletary is listed as 203, but the Bills drafted Cook.  CMC is listed as 205.  Who else are you including as a "small" feature back?  

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Austin Ekeler is small at 200 pounds.  Elijah Mitchell is 200, but I don't know how secure his hold is on a "feature back" role.  Singletary is listed as 203, but the Bills drafted Cook.  CMC is listed as 205.  Who else are you including as a "small" feature back?  

Dalvin Cook

Aaron Jones

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Austin Ekeler is small at 200 pounds.  Elijah Mitchell is 200, but I don't know how secure his hold is on a "feature back" role.  Singletary is listed as 203, but the Bills drafted Cook.  CMC is listed as 205.  Who else are you including as a "small" feature back?  

Also I’m not saying it’s ideal for a back to be smaller or anything - my preference is 5’10” 220 - but I can think of many smaller backs that have been successful as lead backs. We can go back many years with that as well.

CEH hasn’t lived up to it and I’ll agree his size has hurt him, but that’s because he’s not fast. I think Dobbins is 205 and he’ll be in a RBBC but he’s basically getting lead back touches.

 

[rockaction]

The methodology in the article you posted doesn't get much better, but it is missing the (hypothetical) change over time of how clubs view RBs. Everybody *seems* to agree that the position is becoming more and more devalued. What I would like to see is that same chart pared down to say 5 year windows and then compare the windows to each other. "Is devaluation of RBs reflected in lower hit rates at pick x over time?" 

Yeah, I remember our (the collective board) debates about that in regard to Michael Carter last year. Now, that's a loaded comment because we know what happened to Carter, but that doesn't make the point wrong. At all. In fact, I think your above comment is the best argument for taking a guy without proper draft capital early.

It would be interesting to see what kind of data we can get on guys taken at each pick in the draft and when and if the RB2 "line," so to speak, creeps back to around the fourth-round level of picks or so. Be interesting to see that in five years. I'm not sure every team was on board enough to where the past five years would do that mindset justice. It's only been in the past two or three years, if you ask me, that everyone has been on board with the devalued RBs. 

Anyway, sorry I was late to this today and am issuing a hurried response. I have commitments tonight I need to prepare for. 

 

[Mister CIA]

100% this.

I like to carry one of those 3rd down back depth crisis guys just in case, but one is enough.

Darrell Henderson/Raheem Mostert owner checking in.

 

[zed2283]

As far as devaluing and hit rates, it seems to me the best/easiest way to do it is to just look at draft spot relative to the others at your position.  So rather than worry about a RB being drafted in round 3 you're just saying he was the 4th RB selected.  And compare that way year to year.

 

[Biabreakable]

Yeah, I remember our (the collective board) debates about that in regard to Michael Carter last year. Now, that's a loaded comment because we know what happened to Carter, but that doesn't make the point wrong. At all. In fact, I think your above comment is the best argument for taking a guy without proper draft capital early.

It would be interesting to see what kind of data we can get on guys taken at each pick in the draft and when and if the RB2 "line," so to speak, creeps back to around the fourth-round level of picks or so. Be interesting to see that in five years. I'm not sure every team was on board enough to where the past five years would do that mindset justice. It's only been in the past two or three years, if you ask me, that everyone has been on board with the devalued RBs. 

Anyway, sorry I was late to this today and am issuing a hurried response. I have commitments tonight I need to prepare for. 

There has been a lot of talk about this.

Here is a article discussing the odds of a player actually producing useful stats for FF.

While there is truth in peoples position about the odds being very slim for a RB drafted later in the NFL draft becoming a fantasy relevant player, especially for a sustainable period of time, the same is also true for WR.

So is it really wiser taking these WR with higher draft capital than the RB when their odds of becoming relevant starters in fantasy really isn't that much better?

I think people over estimate how well rookie WR can produce every year and I have been guilty of doing that as well.

Situation and fit matter a lot here. If the WR is paired with a good QB in a strong offense I think that is a reason to value them more than WR who are not and while I think draft capital is the most important factor, team fit and opportunity are still close to that also.

It kind of depends on ones expectations also. For me finding a player who can produce numbers worth starting, even for a short period of time is more valuable than a player who might tease but doesn't. Expecting any of them to produce at a high level sustainably is extremely rare and I think people over estimate a rookie players potential to do that more than anything. So if you have lower, or more realistic expectations of the long odds that players from all positions have to actually be starting quality, it evens things out quite a bit.

While a majority of these RB will fail to perform at a level worth starting, and even fewer of them will do so for more than one season, the same is also true for most of the WR as well. The WR will have higher draft capital and clog up peoples roster spots longer though.

 

[rockaction]

Narrator: So of course the OP took Spiller at the 2.02 of his draft.

Hwarf. Let's see if bucking the rules of draft capital and the miserable history of fourth-round backs pays off at all. 

 

[JohnnyU]

Narrator: So of course the OP took Spiller at the 2.02 of his draft.

Hwarf. Let's see if bucking the rules of draft capital and the miserable history of fourth-round backs pays off at all. 

I think he's in the territory of Pollard and Mattison.  Teams have held them for years yearning at the possibility one will become a stud starting RB.  That hasn't happened, but I feel Spiller is a must own for Ekeler owners and a good dart throw for everyone else.  At least as good as Pollard and Mattison.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think he's in the territory of Pollard and Mattison.  Teams have held them for years yearning at the possibility one will become a stud starting RB.  That hasn't happened, but I feel Spiller is a must own for Ekeler owners and a good dart throw for everyone else.  At least as good as Pollard and Mattison.

Mattison has been great when Cooks gets hurt (which is fairly often). Isn’t he still on his rookie contract? Maybe he does get the chance to start somewhere else, maybe he doesn’t but not sure how it could be upsetting to his owners that it hasn’t happened yet - outside of when Cook misses games - since there’s no reason for the Vikings to release him from his rookie contract.

 

[JohnnyU]

Mattison has been great when Cooks gets hurt (which is fairly often). Isn’t he still on his rookie contract? Maybe he does get the chance to start somewhere else, maybe he doesn’t but not sure how it could be upsetting to his owners that it hasn’t happened yet - outside of when Cook misses games - since there’s no reason for the Vikings to release him from his rookie contract.

I think as far as value goes Spiller will fall into the same bucket as Pollard and Mattison.  He will have the most value to Ekeler owners, but will carry some of the same appeal as Pollard and Mattison.  I'm just talking about fantasy perception going forward.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think as far as value goes Spiller will fall into the same bucket as Pollard and Mattison.  He will have the most value to Ekeler owners, but will carry some of the same appeal as Pollard and Mattison.  I'm just talking about fantasy perception going forward.

Well, yeah he’s stuck behind an established productive RB - pretty sure everyone knows that.

Like Cook, Ekeler is a smaller feature back so he gets banged up a lot and, sure, that’s the appeal for Spiller now. It seemed like you were implying Spiller is a wasted roster spot like Mattison or Pollard which seemed like an odd statement.

 

[JohnnyU]

Well, yeah he’s stuck behind an established productive RB - pretty sure everyone knows that.

Like Cook, Ekeler is a smaller feature back so he gets banged up a lot and, sure, that’s the appeal for Spiller now. It seemed like you were implying Spiller is a wasted roster spot like Mattison or Pollard which seemed like an odd statement.

I wasn't implying that at all.  Just because I said neither have become the starter yet that most covet doesn't take away from the point being made of the comparisons.  I'm just saying people will look at Spiller in much of the same light as Pollard and Mattison and isn't a bad thing.  Whether the same patience is given to Spiller as some have had with Pollard and Mattison will be determined going forward. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

 Just because I said neither have become the starter yet 

Mentioning that is why it seemed you were drawing a negative comparison - it couldn't really happen for those guys yet except for when the starters went down.

Mattison has returned a handful of games with nice numbers as a starter though.

 

[JohnnyU]

Mentioning that is why it seemed you were drawing a negative comparison - it couldn't really happen for those guys yet except for when the starters went down.

Mattison has returned a handful of games with nice numbers as a starter though.

I was drawing attention to two things.  One being a fact that neither Pollard nor Mattison have gotten what their fantasy owners want yet and that Spiller owners may have to show the same patience as Pollard and Mattison owners. You know, in it for the long haul.  The other is that I compare Spiller to both from an all around fantasy perspective.  All three probably more important to the owners of Elliott, Cook and Ekeler respectively, but all three having the same appeal outside of that.

 

[rockaction]

I'll interject again by saying that I picked Spiller for two reasons. Of all the guys' highlights I watched, he looked like he was on a different level. Brian Robinson and Pierre Strong jump off the screen a little, too. Tyler Allgeier looks like a bowling ball. I liked those guys, too. But back to Spiller: Waldman had him as his RB3, and I put stock in what Matt Waldman says, even if people here are quick to jump down his throat about errors. 

And before testing (testing Spiller claims he was hurt for, and I can believe him), he was widely considered at least the second or third back off of the board and was going to make a serious run at second or third-round draft capital. Before testing, it was the big three for running backs in this draft. Now, I'm a testing kind of guy, so why did I make an exception? Well, people better at this than I say he's been clocked by their estimation at over 21 MPH, which is significant. That's in pads, real time. Xue on this very site claims it (Fusue Vue) on Twitter. (Though I can't tell if Fusue is kidding or not.)

 

[JohnnyU]

Regarding Spiller, the Chargers have been looking for someone to give more than a handful of carries to.  Joshua Kelly had like 12 carries in his first NFL game, and 23 the following week.  This was with a healthy Ekelar.  Unfortunately, he runs like he’s ankle deep in mud.  Jackson is decent, but nothing special.  They drafted Roundtree last year, and he’s a JAG.  I’m not saying they’re looking for someone to get 20+ carries week in week out, but someone to lessen the load of Ekelar, who they’d still use in the passing game and get 10-15 carries.  This is my observation though.  Add in the fact they have a great offensive line, a top notch overall offense led by Herbert, and Spiller being just 21 years of age (he’s 20 now), I think Spiller could be solid this year, with the chance to be an every down back in a couple years, as Ekelar is 27.  Of course he also has to seize the opportunity, but he’s a guy I’d gladly take in the back half of round 1 rookie drafts, and as early as maybe 5-6 if I needed a RB.  

I think getting him at 2.1 or 2.2 is great value.  That's where I took him in two ppr start 1qb dynasty leagues.  I wouldn't blame anyone taking him over Watson at the end of the first.

 

[massraider]

Xue on this very site claims it (Fusue Vue) on Twitter. (Though I can't tell if Fusue is kidding or not.)

He was on these message boards??? 

Xue doesn't ring a bell. 

He's a must read on Twitter for me. 

 

[rockaction]

He was on these message boards??? 

Xue doesn't ring a bell. 

He's a must read on Twitter for me. 

I'm almost positive he was here a while ago and his name was @Xue Somebody told me that in passing, so it could be inaccurate. But yes, the guy on Twitter. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He was on these message boards??? 

Xue doesn't ring a bell. 

He's a must read on Twitter for me. 

It's been a while and he mostly posted during draft season.

 

[Football Jones]

Spiller might be the biggest steal of dynasty drafts given his ADP. Some people didn't like the destination because of Ekeler, but Spiller is only 20 years old (turns 21 in August). Ekeler turns 27 soon.

I don't worry about the 4.63 40. That's right there with other RBs who have been successful, especially given his good size. The NFL should have players run fully equipped when testing, anyway. It wouldn't surprise me if Spiller did hit 21mph as has been reported. Some guys just carry their pads better not to mention game speed is a different dynamic.

I believe there's a very good chance Spiller becomes a FF stud by his 23-year old season. Could be a monster.

 

[steelcityman]

Is there a place to check rookie ADP since the NFL draft?    I search but dont find much.

 

[Biabreakable]

Mattison has been great when Cooks gets hurt (which is fairly often). Isn’t he still on his rookie contract? Maybe he does get the chance to start somewhere else, maybe he doesn’t but not sure how it could be upsetting to his owners that it hasn’t happened yet - outside of when Cook misses games - since there’s no reason for the Vikings to release him from his rookie contract.

Yes last year of Mattisons rookie deal.

He is ok. I wouldnt be very confident in him landing a better role following this season, but you never know.

 

[barackdhouse]

I'll interject again by saying that I picked Spiller for two reasons. Of all the guys' highlights I watched, he looked like he was on a different level. Brian Robinson and Pierre Strong jump off the screen a little, too. Tyler Allgeier looks like a bowling ball. I liked those guys, too. But back to Spiller: Waldman had him as his RB3, and I put stock in what Matt Waldman says, even if people here are quick to jump down his throat about errors. 

And before testing (testing Spiller claims he was hurt for, and I can believe him), he was widely considered at least the second or third back off of the board and was going to make a serious run at second or third-round draft capital. Before testing, it was the big three for running backs in this draft. Now, I'm a testing kind of guy, so why did I make an exception? Well, people better at this than I say he's been clocked by their estimation at over 21 MPH, which is significant. That's in pads, real time. Xue on this very site claims it (Fusue Vue) on Twitter. (Though I can't tell if Fusue is kidding or not.)

HFS that is the first time I have heard that he was hurt for the testing. That matters a ton to me. 

A couple other things. Fusue Vue on Twitter is *notorious* for posting BS and gets called out for it all the time. He is a really good analyst and like so many other FF analysts on Twitter, they often post sarcastic bait tweets. And it sucks because for people like me, I have absolutely zero idea whatsoever when they are real takes or not. FWIW. 

As for DC specifically, I'd remind people that Carter was RB5 last year at pick 107. Spiller went as RB9 at pick 123. Spiller is more of a feature back size if that means anything here. I wouldn't mind seeing this draft capital hit rate stuff broken up by BMI or weight, too. If we're going to get into the weeds.

I'm not crazy about him being behind Ekeler, who is still only 26 years old (for less than 2 more weeks but still) but folks I'm seeing Spiller go as late as 3rd round in early rookie drafts. Easily worth a stash.

 

[barackdhouse]

Is there a place to check rookie ADP since the NFL draft?    I search but dont find much.

https://twitter.com/Adeiko_FF/status/1521482805640847367?s=20&t=Ve7zoOSN6Tb1Vdge3IAZKQ

this guy is doing the Lord's work on Twitter right now

 

[rockaction]

Fusue Vue on Twitter is *notorious* for posting BS and gets called out for it all the time

Indeed. People were questioning him about the MPH thing. I still have no idea if he was serious or not. I used to follow him but stopped. But yes, Spiller claims (somewhat dubiously) that he had a groin problem. Of course, what are you going to say when you test that poorly? I don't know. I took a chance on him. We shall see. 

 

[wlwiles]

I'd bet good money that Cook ends up around ADP 1.08 or 1.09 in rookie leagues.  Positional scarcity, higher injury rate, shorter shelf life of RB vs. WR is something we still can't seem to treat correctly in fantasy leagues.  NFL teams devalue the RB position, but in fantasy it's king.  Think about the average dynasty player, when they're on the clock do they want to spend that 1.09 trying to decide between Watson/Dotson/Thornton who have low-WR2 ceilings at best (and maybe not for a year or two), or take a shot on Cook popping and becoming a key part of a great offense?  They'll go Cook almost every time.

 

[ZWK]

Indeed. People were questioning him about the MPH thing. I still have no idea if he was serious or not. I used to follow him but stopped. But yes, Spiller claims (somewhat dubiously) that he had a groin problem. Of course, what are you going to say when you test that poorly? I don't know. I took a chance on him. We shall see. 

He was serious. This is the tweet. Counting frames on videos to measure MPH is one of the things that Fusue does.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'd bet good money that Cook ends up around ADP 1.08 or 1.09 in rookie leagues.  Positional scarcity, higher injury rate, shorter shelf life of RB vs. WR is something we still can't seem to treat correctly in fantasy leagues.  NFL teams devalue the RB position, but in fantasy it's king.  Think about the average dynasty player, when they're on the clock do they want to spend that 1.09 trying to decide between Watson/Dotson/Thornton who have low-WR2 ceilings at best (and maybe not for a year or two), or take a shot on Cook popping and becoming a key part of a great offense?  They'll go Cook almost every time.

I stated as much in the Cook thread.  Prefer Spiller over Cook because he has a better chance at being a workhorse fantasy asset long term  Cook has no chance at doing that.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I stated as much in the Cook thread.  Prefer Spiller over Cook because he has a better chance at being a workhorse fantasy asset long term  Cook has no chance at doing that.

No chance?

 

[JohnnyU]

No chance?

Ok, I was wrong there is a snowball's chance in hell he could be a workhorse back, so that was a little strong.....sorry.

 

[massraider]

Once you are past the 2 backs and the 5 WR, it gets into favorites. I like Skyy and Pickens next, but won't laugh at someone else who wants a back. 

Spiller goes to a great offense, as does Cook, but he has better size, and an older back in front of him 

Ekeler after this season would be entering last year of deal, and only 1.5 M in dead cap 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ok, I was wrong there is a snowball's chance in hell he could be a workhorse back, so that was a little strong.....sorry.

Great analysis. That's what makes this place so great!!!

I mean it's impossible that a small back named Cook could ever make it in the NFL. For the record I think he's be RBBC back but with his pass catching skills he will have fantasy relevance - but your absolutes are such a joke.

 

[massraider]

Great analysis. That's what makes this place so great!!!

I mean it's impossible that a small back named Cook could ever make it in the NFL. For the record I think he's be RBBC back but with his pass catching skills he will have fantasy relevance - but your absolutes are such a joke.

He would be an outlier at that size. Dalvin was an inch shorter, and 10 pounds heavier. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He would be an outlier at that size. Dalvin was an inch shorter, and 10 pounds heavier. 

Dalvin Cook came into the league at 203. James is 199.

 

[JohnnyU]

Great analysis. That's what makes this place so great!!!

I mean it's impossible that a small back named Cook could ever make it in the NFL. For the record I think he's be RBBC back but with his pass catching skills he will have fantasy relevance - but your absolutes are such a joke.

Sorry for the absolute saying he has no chance at being a workhorse back.  I think I already said that.  I think someone like Spiller is better.  That is just my opinion.  I never said Cook wouldn't make it in the NFL.  In fact, I said he would be valuable in PPR leagues.  I just don't think he will ever be what "some" people are drafting him for in the first round.  I hope that is better stated to your liking.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Sorry for the absolute saying he has no chance at being a workhorse back.  I think I already said that.  I think someone like Spiller is better.  That is just my opinion.  I never said Cook wouldn't make it in the NFL.  In fact, I said he would be valuable in PPR leagues.  I just don't think he will ever be what "some" people are drafting him for in the first round.  I hope that is better stated to your liking.

Fair enough, and I apologize being being a #### in my responses.

 

[JohnnyU]

Fair enough, and I apologize being being a #### in my responses.

That certainly doesn't bother me and i like when you call me out for being too absolute in some of my responses.  I don't do it on purpose and it is a flaw of mine to some extent.  It doesn't convey effective communication and your point can get lost because of it.  I'm always open to criticism.  It makes you a better person.  I'm always trying to be a better communicator.  It's not only important on boards like this, but is important in everyday life as well.

 

[rockaction]

He was serious. This is the tweet. Counting frames on videos to measure MPH is one of the things that Fusue does.

Thanks, ZWK. I thought he was serious. It's just that Fusue's tongue is so firmly planted in cheek that I didn't want to give drafters here bad information without a caveat. I took him seriously, and it factored into picking Spiller. 

 

[rockaction]

I totally blew up my own premise in this thread by my actions. Now that's having a game plan and sticking to it. 

Process is crazy, huh? 

 

[zaner75]

Once you are past the 2 backs and the 5 WR, it gets into favorites. I like Skyy and Pickens next, but won't laugh at someone else who wants a back. 

This ^

Top 7 are consensus in some sort of order. Then it's Dotson, round 2 WRs (Watson, Moore, Pickens most commonly ahead of the others) and RBs in a personal preference grab-bag through the late 1st-2nd. If you like a guy, it's not a reach to push the button if you know he's not going to be there at your next pick. 2.02 vs 2.06 only makes a big difference to those who want to quibble about minutiae, imo.

This year there's a more limited quantity of players that I want to draft so trying to play the value game could end up costing me someone I want. For example, in one of my 14 team SF leagues, I was offered 3.02 and 3.11 for my 3.01 and 4.01. The offer didn't move the needle so I just picked but the guy wanting to swap places with me would've taken who I chose (Zamir White fwiw)