[DYNASTY] 2013 Top 20 Rookies (2 Viewers)

[EBF]

I would venture to guess the odds of a player with a lower BMI are higher in increasing weight over players with a higher BMI increasing their weight. This was my point. I'm sure Marquess Wilson has a much easier time increasing in weight over your boy Marcus Davis. Do you disagree?

Not necessarily. I think genetics are a big factor in body mass. No amount of lifting is going to turn Jamaal Charles into Michael Turner or Sidney Rice into Terrell Owens. A guy like Davis naturally carries a lot more weight than a guy like Wilson.

And I generally assume that a player with 3-4 years of lifting in a major NCAA program is usually pretty close to maxed out physically. What you see is usually what you get. There could be extenuating circumstances for multi-sport athletes, really young players, or small school guys, but by and large I don't expect these prospects to morph into different people once they hit the NFL.

When people fall back on the "but he can gain weight" argument it's usually just because they like a player and can't step back and be objective about his outlook. If you are going to assume that a guy like Allen will get bigger, you also have to assume that a lot of these other guys like Harvin, Green, Julio, and Dez must have gotten bigger since they were prospects. So the ideal BMI would shift and pretty much wipe out whatever gains Allen might make. And then you're back where you started.

The numbers speak for themselves. Of last year's top 20 FF WRs, 19 had a higher BMI than Allen coming out of college. And all the height/weight information I used for those players is from the combine/pro day when they were at the same stage of their development. It's a piece of the puzzle. If you want to ignore it, I don't particularly care.

 

[beef]

Lots of rooks gain weight. RB's do all the time.

 

[JAA]

Went back and watched both receiver groups go through the pass catching/route running drills again last night. Putting aside the workout numbers and just looking at the receiver drills, I thought Robert Woods and DeAndre Hopkins did well. They ran crisp routes and I don't remember either of them dropping a pass. They look like they can play the game, which jives with the scouting reports on both of them. Josh Boyce is the best athlete in this WR class. If that sounds stupid, remember that he ran a faster 40 than Patterson and only .04 seconds slower than Austin even though he's 30 pounds heavier. He also had a 10'11" broad jump, which is great for someone under 6' tall. From what I saw in drills, he isn't just a workout warrior. Noticeably thicker than most of the receivers in attendance, yet still ran smooth and explosive routes. The main negative I saw is that he dropped several passes. Got eaten up in the gauntlet drill and also dropped an over the shoulder deep ball that him right in the hands. This is roughly how I would rank the receivers in attendance strictly on route running (not taking hands/size/speed into account). Basically just trying to get a sense for how well they move and cut. J Boyce (drops)R WoodsA Sanders (drops)Q Patton (drops)D Hopkins T Austin =========J HunterM Goodwin (drops)C PattersonC HarperC HamiltonM WheatonM WilsonM DavisA Mellette===========D RogersR SmithD RobinsonR SwopeKing, Bailey, and Vernon did fine, but in my view lack the athletic gifts to be useful FF players. Others like Goard and Kaufman looked undraftable to me.

How do you rank Greg Jennigs, Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, Randall Cobb, James Jones, Stevie Johnson to your measuring stick?Also, as far as measurables you need to re-look at Bailey. His hands are HUGE

 

[JAA]

20. WR Tavon Austin - My pick for most overrated FF prospect in the draft. People will see him as a Welker/Harvin proposition for FF and that might be possible, but in my view he's too small to handle a huge volume of targets and will be best used as a complementary weapon. I think he'll be like a better Andrew Hawkins. Someone who can make things happen with the ball in his hands, but not a guy who will get enough targets to be a reliable FF weapon. More valuable in the NFL than in FF. Will be overdrafted in FF on the basis of where a team takes him in April.

EBF, Im a huge fan for you putting yourself out there, but this review is horrible. It might be the worst I have ever read. Have you compared him to Welker at all? Have you watched him catch the ball? Have you watched his on the field vision? Have you watched one second of his tape?I would love for you to show me one bad clip of Tavon. Well, maybe 2 as there was this one when a punt bounced 45 degrees at speed and hit him 10 yards away. Other than that having watched every play of his college career, he is a complete player. If he was 6'0 or taller he would be a defacto top 10 pick. Did you watch his bench press? Do you see his hand measurements?cmon EBF, you are better than this!

 

[JAA]

I'll probably do a full update sometime before the draft, but for now here's a quick update after the combine. In general, I'm really not excited about the top of this class. I've been saying that for a while and it's still true. I feel like the 1.03-1.10 range is a real minefield. There is virtually nobody there that I really like. So pick your poison and cross your fingers. Or better yet, trade down or up. This is an interesting WR class because so many of the guys fall into one of the two categories:A. Great football players with suspect physical tools.B. Great athletes with suspect football ability.In general, I favored the latter over the former because I value upside pretty highly. 1. RB Eddie Lacy - Not amazing, but good in every facet of the game. Put him in a starting role and he should be a top 10-15 FF back. 2. WR Cordarrelle Patterson - Have to rank him high because of difference-maker potential. Electric with the ball. Route running and separation? Boom-or-bust.3. WR Keenan Allen - Looks like a solid prospect when you watch him. Lack of great strength or speed is a concern. Atypical game makes him a bit of a risk. 4. TE Tyler Eifert - The #2 pick in 1.5 PPR for TE leagues. One of the only safe bets in this draft. No real risk that I can see. Solid upside.5. WR Da'Rick Rogers - Gifted athlete who always gets results. Big and strong. Explosive numbers in his combine workouts. Needs to refine his game. Especially route running. Not a sudden or effective route runner.6. WR Justin Hunter - Atypical build and style. Sidney Rice type. Very tall and thin. Explosive vertically. Not very agile or elusive. Routes are also a question mark. 7. RB Gio Bernard - Monster production. Good vision, instincts, and receiving skills. Average athlete. Does not pop when I watch his clips. May lack starter tools.8. WR Marcus Davis - Boom-or-bust project with the upside to become the best WR/RB from this class. Huge frame. Better hands than advertised. Impossible to jam. Needs to refine his technique and improve his suddenness out of his routes. If he can do that, the sky is the limit. 9. WR Robert Woods - Safe #2 receiver with minimal upside. Average athlete on paper. Instinctive and natural player on the field. Runs good routes and catches the ball well. Should be useful for FF purposes, but does not obviously have the potential to be more than a WR2-WR3. 10. WR DeAndre Hopkins - Tall with good hands and ball skills. Precise route runner, but does not possess a great deal of speed or explosiveness. A bit of a possession/finesse tweener. I think he lacks the sheer physical ability to be a #1 target.11. WR Markus Wheaton - Quick twitch athlete with above average speed. Playmaker. Lacks height and bulk. May struggle with the physicality of the NFL. I like him, but I think he is strictly a complementary WR. Does not have the right set of physical tools to be a 130+ target per season guy. 12. RB Christine Michael - Great combination of bulk/speed/explosiveness. Elite physical tools guarantee that he won't be out of his depth in the NFL. Never produced on par with his talent though. Never had a 1000+ yard season in college. Not particularly elusive beyond the line of scrimmage. Not great in space. Struggles to avoid hits and (probably as a result) has had some durability issues. He will be serviceable, but I don't expect top 15 numbers at any point. 13. WR Quinton Patton - Good at everything. Great at nothing. Solid frame. Speed is only average. Quick in and out of his routes, but doesn't have the sheer explosiveness or speed to frighten NFL defenders. Elusive after the catch. Figures to be a good #2 target. I don't see the upside to become a strong #1. 14. WR Josh Boyce - The best athlete in this year's WR class. Very fast for his size and flashed special vertical skills at the combine with his 4.38 speed and 10'11" broad jump. However, he's only rated as a 4th-5th round talent by most evaluators. Shorter than ideal. Was always good in college, but never dominant. Looks okay on film. Not amazing. Injury questions. Bit of a slot/outside tweener. Has the potential to emerge as a big surprise down the road and could end up being something like Pierre Garcon, but there are enough minor red flags to just keep him out of the first two tiers. 15. RB Knile Davis - Awesome combination of weight and straight line speed. Great production in 2010 before falling off the map due to injuries and lack of playing time. Does not run with as much power as his listed dimensions would lead you to believe. The biggest problem is that he is not elusive in tight spaces and struggles to string moves together and make people miss. He is a like a more compact Darren McFadden. Fantastic in a straight line when working with big lanes. Incapable of eluding or creating on his own. 16. RB Marcus Lattimore - I wasn't sky high on him even before his injuries. Runs with a lot of bounce and has the weight you look for in a featured back. Productive college standout in a tough conference. Thin lower body though and IMO will always struggle to stay healthy, even if he manages to recover fully from his catastrophic injury. Likely to be overdrafted in FF on the basis of name recognition. If I took him, it would be with an eye towards shifting him for a profit the minute he gets healthy and shows any promise in the NFL. 17. QB Geno Smith - Good stats in college. How much of that was the system? Has the physical tools to play in the NFL. The main question is about his ability to do the little things. Can he look off defenders and move through his progressions? Can he thrive under center? Can he thrive under pressure? The consensus seems to be that Smith is worth a first round investment, but that he's not a slam dunk lock to succeed.18. WR Chris Harper - Big frame. Not explosive, but moves reasonably well before and after the catch. Reliable hands catcher. Size and strength will make him a difficult cover for most cornerbacks. Solid prospect. Lack of dynamic qualities means he is probably destined for a supporting role. 19. WR Marquess Wilson - A poor-man's AJ Green. Tall with great natural hands and jump ball skills. Monster production. Deceptively good route runner. Lacks any semblance of strength and bulk. May get pushed around at the next level. Character issues. Has the upside to surprise though. Good 2nd round rookie pick.20. WR Tavon Austin - My pick for most overrated FF prospect in the draft. People will see him as a Welker/Harvin proposition for FF and that might be possible, but in my view he's too small to handle a huge volume of targets and will be best used as a complementary weapon. I think he'll be like a better Andrew Hawkins. Someone who can make things happen with the ball in his hands, but not a guy who will get enough targets to be a reliable FF weapon. More valuable in the NFL than in FF. Will be overdrafted in FF on the basis of where a team takes him in April. 21. RB Spencer Ware - Poor college production. Low YPC. Not explosive and relies too much on his power when confronted by defenders, barreling into them when he should seek to avoid. Might lack the elusiveness to be a good pro. Great frame though and has the look of a sleeper talent to me. If nothing else, should find a niche role. Can catch the ball, pass protect, and run in short yardage very well. Rare receiving ability for a big back. 22. WR Ryan Swope - Looked a bit awkward in positional drills, but has a lot of things going for him. Good college production. Very explosive workout numbers. Not as natural or fluid as some of the other receivers in this draft, but possesses special qualities that help him compensate. He reminds me a little bit of Jordy Nelson and could make a good #2 for a team that likes to throw downfield. 23. RB Montee Ball - Just okay at everything. He has a decent frame with okay speed, quickness, and power. Will that be enough in the NFL? Ball really lacks dynamic qualities and will only be as good as the team around him. I view him more as a backup than a lock starter. On the right team, he can be a capable stopgap guy. 24. TE Zach Ertz - 20 spots below Eifert might be a bit harsh. He doesn't look as good to me though and the combine exposed his lack of standout tools. He is slightly built with just okay speed and burst. His best assets are his tall frame and natural hands. I don't personally see special potential and FF TEs aren't worth much unless they're in that super elite class, so for me he's not really worth a shot higher than this in most formats. OTHERS:QB Matt Barkley - I would definitely consider taking a chance on him in the late 2nd-early 3rd of a typical league if he were available.RB Andre Ellington - Good talent. Too small to be a featured guy and doesn't have the Spiller/Charles type of speed to compensate.RB LeVeon Bell - Interesting prospect with a unique package of skills. Could have some success on the right team. Soft body who lacks innate explosiveness.RB Stepfan Taylor - Totally bombed the combine. Put up the numbers of a high school kid. Shocking performance raises big questions about his NFL potential.RB Zac Stacy - A reasonable late round gamble. Not a superstar, but could be capable.RB Kenjon Barner - Strictly a committee guy/role player.RB Jonathan Franklin - Okay prospect. Lacks standout traits.RB Michael Ford - Awesome combine numbers. At LSU I always thought he was too much of a straight-line runner. WR Terrance Williams - Never been a big fan. Timed speed was a minor disappointment. Not as fluid in his routes as guys like Woods and Patton.WR Cobi Hamilton - Looked like a decent mid-late round gamble in the positional drills. WR Marquise Goodwin - Awesome speed. Below average innate football talent. Strictly a field stretcher for now. WR Ace Sanders - Fun to watch. Lightning quick. Short frame and suspect receiving skills. Likely just a low volume slot guy/return man in the NFL. WR Aaron Mellette - A draftable third day prospect with reasonable talent and upside. Nothing amazing.WR Aaron Dobson - A tall and lanky Justin Hunter type. Did not work out at the combine. Figures to be a 3rd-4th round pick. TE Gavin Escobar - Scouts seem to really like his vertical ability, catch radius, and natural hands. Billed to become a quality pro player.

Stedman Bailey will outperform 50% of the WRs on your lists. Take a moment to look at his tape vs LSU, OU, and UT.

 

[JAA]

Allen was always going to be a tough guy to peg because he's so unconventional. He's tall and thin like a finesse receiver, but his playing style is more like a possession/YAC receiver. I think the LaFell comparison is a bit harsh though and doesn't really capture the essence of his game. In a best case scenario I think he'll end up being used kind of like a Crabtree/Boldin/Colston. He isn't as thick as those guys, but that's who his playing style and overall package of skills most closely resembles. Basically a big frame possession WR who has a knack for getting open on short routes and making things happen after the catch.

I don't see top 5 upside with him. He's not going to be a dominant athlete at the NFL level. Doesn't have great strength. Doesn't have great speed. He's a guy who looks pretty safe when you watch the game clips though. The team that drafts him will know what they're getting. He's not going to make a ton of big plays downfield. If you move him around and let him work out of the slot, he'll be effective.

I remember the last 'safe' guy I drafted and his name was Brian Robiskie.

A guy that I called a bust all along.

22. Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State

Positives: Tall with excellent hands. Made a number of big catches for the Buckeyes over the past two seasons. Polished player who does the little things well and gets the most out of his physical ability. Comes from an NFL family. Really helped himself at the combine, performing better than expected in drills.

Negatives: Neither quick nor fast. Not a threat after the catch. Really just a catch-and-fall WR with very limited upside.

Overall: What you see is what you get with Robiskie. He’s a solid player and he has decent computer numbers on paper, but he’s a very middling talent who doesn’t have the obvious physical gifts needed to rise above mediocrity. I see him as a backup type or a WR2 at best in the NFL.

NFL Comparison: Michael Jenkins

Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urUgs3FeiGc

Robiskie is more akin to someone like Tavarres King. A downfield finesse WR who didn't quite have the juice to scare NFL defenders. Allen is a much different type of player. He has a possession/YAC game that Robiskie never flashed. That's why I used Colston, Blackmon, and Crabtree as examples of his upside. Those guys do not have scary downfield speed. They make a living on short routes and are dangerous out of the slot. I think that will be Allen's game. The only difference is that he doesn't have the upper body strength of that crew. He's tall and stringy, which is a weird match for his playing style. I think that's why the formulas don't like him.

Nice find and nice writeup, we agreed on the top RB

McCoy is the real deal and he will be toting the rock 350+ a year. He will be a workhorse for some team.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Mark Harrison is just as physically talented as Davis. Hard to see one 8th and the other not even mentioned.

 

[JAA]

Allen was always going to be a tough guy to peg because he's so unconventional. He's tall and thin like a finesse receiver, but his playing style is more like a possession/YAC receiver. I think the LaFell comparison is a bit harsh though and doesn't really capture the essence of his game. In a best case scenario I think he'll end up being used kind of like a Crabtree/Boldin/Colston. He isn't as thick as those guys, but that's who his playing style and overall package of skills most closely resembles. Basically a big frame possession WR who has a knack for getting open on short routes and making things happen after the catch.

I don't see top 5 upside with him. He's not going to be a dominant athlete at the NFL level. Doesn't have great strength. Doesn't have great speed. He's a guy who looks pretty safe when you watch the game clips though. The team that drafts him will know what they're getting. He's not going to make a ton of big plays downfield. If you move him around and let him work out of the slot, he'll be effective.

I used to think he was safe pick for an NFL team (not fantasy) but now I am not so sure. Unfortunately, Pac 10 wideouts like Dwayne Jarret have me questioning his pro potential. I know that it unfair to judge a player based on where he plays but I can't ignore it.

Here is a highlight video of Keenan Allen He's a good player

Thanks I have seen those. I just don't see him as being a safe pick when he doesn't have elite size or speed. Can a NFL team justify spending a high first round pick on him? I think he should be going near the bottom of the first ala Hakeem Nicks.

I dont get this. Is this thread about where he will be drafted and evaluated by NFL teams or how he will perform from a dynasty perspective? For example, Nicks is agreat WR and prolly top10 fantasy wise.

 

[EBF]

Lots of rooks gain weight. RB's do all the time.

I don't dispute that. The point is, if you assume that one player is going to gain weight, don't you have to assume that lots of others will too?And that will push the average weight up. And thus you end up right back where you started.

 

[EBF]

Mark Harrison is just as physically talented as Davis. Hard to see one 8th and the other not even mentioned.

On paper, sure. Doesn't move as well though. Also wasn't nearly as productive last season.

 

[JAA]

Allen was always going to be a tough guy to peg because he's so unconventional. He's tall and thin like a finesse receiver, but his playing style is more like a possession/YAC receiver. I think the LaFell comparison is a bit harsh though and doesn't really capture the essence of his game. In a best case scenario I think he'll end up being used kind of like a Crabtree/Boldin/Colston. He isn't as thick as those guys, but that's who his playing style and overall package of skills most closely resembles. Basically a big frame possession WR who has a knack for getting open on short routes and making things happen after the catch.

I don't see top 5 upside with him. He's not going to be a dominant athlete at the NFL level. Doesn't have great strength. Doesn't have great speed. He's a guy who looks pretty safe when you watch the game clips though. The team that drafts him will know what they're getting. He's not going to make a ton of big plays downfield. If you move him around and let him work out of the slot, he'll be effective.

I used to think he was safe pick for an NFL team (not fantasy) but now I am not so sure. Unfortunately, Pac 10 wideouts like Dwayne Jarret have me questioning his pro potential. I know that it unfair to judge a player based on where he plays but I can't ignore it.

Here is a highlight video of Keenan Allen He's a good player

Thanks I have seen those. I just don't see him as being a safe pick when he doesn't have elite size or speed. Can a NFL team justify spending a high first round pick on him? I think he should be going near the bottom of the first ala Hakeem Nicks.

I dont get this. Is this thread about where he will be drafted and evaluated by NFL teams or how he will perform from a dynasty perspective? For example, Nicks is agreat WR and prolly top10 fantasy wise.

 

[JAA]

Necessary does not equal sufficient.Most of the really top guys in the NFL have elite something. I like Allen, but it's tough to envision him reaching the Pro Bowl level without having any scary qualities.

It's amazing how many times you have to repeat this, but it is worth it. It's very difficult to be a true #1 WR in the NFL without elite athleticism and or size/speed combo. Therefore, those attributes are the the first thing you should look for among college players.

I think we should go through the top NFL WRs and see where they were drafted ...I believe System and QB are far more important than combines and measurables.

 

[EBF]

20. WR Tavon Austin - My pick for most overrated FF prospect in the draft. People will see him as a Welker/Harvin proposition for FF and that might be possible, but in my view he's too small to handle a huge volume of targets and will be best used as a complementary weapon. I think he'll be like a better Andrew Hawkins. Someone who can make things happen with the ball in his hands, but not a guy who will get enough targets to be a reliable FF weapon. More valuable in the NFL than in FF. Will be overdrafted in FF on the basis of where a team takes him in April.

EBF, Im a huge fan for you putting yourself out there, but this review is horrible. It might be the worst I have ever read. Have you compared him to Welker at all? Have you watched him catch the ball? Have you watched his on the field vision? Have you watched one second of his tape?I would love for you to show me one bad clip of Tavon. Well, maybe 2 as there was this one when a punt bounced 45 degrees at speed and hit him 10 yards away. Other than that having watched every play of his college career, he is a complete player. If he was 6'0 or taller he would be a defacto top 10 pick. Did you watch his bench press? Do you see his hand measurements?cmon EBF, you are better than this!

He's an interesting player because he has dynamic qualities, was very productive, and will probably be a high pick.The big negative with him is obvious: size. By football standards, he's a dwarf at 5'8.4" 174 pounds. Almost 20 pounds lighter than Harvin, who he's often compared to. 21 pounds lighter than Welker. Yea, he's fast, but it comes at the expense of size. He's absolutely tiny. I think Austin is strictly a slot guy. If he goes to an elite passing offense with a quarterback who will feed him targets then maybe he can become a productive FF player like Welker and Harvin, but I think there's a huge risk that he ends up being Andrew Hawkins. A fast gadget weapon who doesn't catch nearly enough passes to be a reliable weekly starter for FF. I think CFN nailed their take on him:http://cfn.scout.com/2/1267803.html

7. Tavon Austin, West Virginia 5-9, 175 Proj. 2Positives: Fast, fast, fast, fast, FAST. Great with the ball in his hands in a variety of ways and is always able to come up with a big burst of speed whenever he gets the chance. … A great runner in an open field with the potential to become a special slot receiver. He’s going to be uncoverable at times. … Always producing. He doesn’t need a lot of room to make one cut and fly.Negatives: Size is going to be a problem. He was able to get by in college, but he won’t be able to take a licking at the next level going across the middle. … He’ll be used as a kick and punt returner, but his future will be as a receiver. He needs to work on becoming a full-time wideout, and while he could be a difference maker, it’ll be as a fun toy to play with. … He’ll be limited in what he can do for a passing game. He’s strictly an inside target.Really, What’s He Going To Do In The NFL? He’ll be a flash of lightning who’ll take over a game or two on his own. However, he’s not going to be a superstar receiver who’ll make ten grabs a game.

 

[JAA]

Doug Martin is huge. He's 223 pounds at just 5'9.2". One of the stockiest starting backs in the NFL. Only below guys like Turner, MJD, and T Rich.

Allen has above average size if all you look at is height, but he has below average size if you think in terms of weight and bulk, which I'd argue is a much better method. Here are the top 20 FF WRs in my PPR league last season and their corresponding BMI:

1. Calvin - 28.3

2. Marshall - 27.6

3. Bryant - 28.8

4. Green - 26.0

5. Thomas - 27.8

6. A Johnson - 29.5

7. Welker - 29.1

8. Wayne - 26.9

9. Decker - 27.0

10. Roddy - 27.2

11. Julio - 27.8

12. VJax - 28.9

13. Colston - 26.9

14. Cruz - 28.3

15. Crabtree - 28.1

16. Cobb - 27.2

17. Jam Jones - 27.6

18. Stevie - 27.2

19. M Williams - 29.2

20. Smith CAR - 27.2

What you notice is that there's a pretty narrow range of effective body types. 19 of the 20 WRs on this list have a higher BMI than Allen, so it's fair to say that his size is well below average. Here are the 40 times for the guys who are within 1 BMI point of Allen:

Green - 26.0 - 4.48

Wayne - 26.9 - 4.45

Decker - 27.0 - N/A

Roddy - 27.2 - 4.46

Colston - 26.9 - 4.50

Cobb - 27.2 - 4.46

Stevie - 27.2 - 4.58

Smith CAR - 27.2 - 4.41

What this shows is that most of the lighter WRs are also pretty fast. Stevie is the only guy on this list who clocked above 4.50, and I'd argue that he's just a #2 WR masquerading as a #1 on a team that lacks options. And therein lies the risk with Allen. Not only is he on the light side for WR, but he also doesn't have the speed that you would expect from a thinner player. That could change depending on how well he clocks at his pro day, but from where we stand now I think it's fair to say that he's lacking from a size/speed standpoint.

I still think he can be a solid contributor because he has a lot of the intangibles, but from a physical standpoint he doesn't stack up with the NFL's best and that's a concern, especially if you're hoping that he can become a really top notch player and not just a solid pro.

EBF - We have been through this BMI argument before. What happened to Jonathan Stewart?

 

[JAA]

20. WR Tavon Austin - My pick for most overrated FF prospect in the draft. People will see him as a Welker/Harvin proposition for FF and that might be possible, but in my view he's too small to handle a huge volume of targets and will be best used as a complementary weapon. I think he'll be like a better Andrew Hawkins. Someone who can make things happen with the ball in his hands, but not a guy who will get enough targets to be a reliable FF weapon. More valuable in the NFL than in FF. Will be overdrafted in FF on the basis of where a team takes him in April.

EBF, Im a huge fan for you putting yourself out there, but this review is horrible. It might be the worst I have ever read. Have you compared him to Welker at all? Have you watched him catch the ball? Have you watched his on the field vision? Have you watched one second of his tape?I would love for you to show me one bad clip of Tavon. Well, maybe 2 as there was this one when a punt bounced 45 degrees at speed and hit him 10 yards away. Other than that having watched every play of his college career, he is a complete player. If he was 6'0 or taller he would be a defacto top 10 pick. Did you watch his bench press? Do you see his hand measurements?cmon EBF, you are better than this!

He's an interesting player because he has dynamic qualities, was very productive, and will probably be a high pick.The big negative with him is obvious: size. By football standards, he's a dwarf at 5'8.4" 174 pounds. Almost 20 pounds lighter than Harvin, who he's often compared to. 21 pounds lighter than Welker. Yea, he's fast, but it comes at the expense of size. He's absolutely tiny. I think Austin is strictly a slot guy. If he goes to an elite passing offense with a quarterback who will feed him targets then maybe he can become a productive FF player like Welker and Harvin, but I think there's a huge risk that he ends up being Andrew Hawkins. A fast gadget weapon who doesn't catch nearly enough passes to be a reliable weekly starter for FF. I think CFN nailed their take on him:http://cfn.scout.com/2/1267803.html

7. Tavon Austin, West Virginia 5-9, 175 Proj. 2Positives: Fast, fast, fast, fast, FAST. Great with the ball in his hands in a variety of ways and is always able to come up with a big burst of speed whenever he gets the chance. … A great runner in an open field with the potential to become a special slot receiver. He’s going to be uncoverable at times. … Always producing. He doesn’t need a lot of room to make one cut and fly.Negatives: Size is going to be a problem. He was able to get by in college, but he won’t be able to take a licking at the next level going across the middle. … He’ll be used as a kick and punt returner, but his future will be as a receiver. He needs to work on becoming a full-time wideout, and while he could be a difference maker, it’ll be as a fun toy to play with. … He’ll be limited in what he can do for a passing game. He’s strictly an inside target.Really, What’s He Going To Do In The NFL? He’ll be a flash of lightning who’ll take over a game or two on his own. However, he’s not going to be a superstar receiver who’ll make ten grabs a game.

http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Darren&l=Sproles&i=7261Watch Tavon take his licks, he reminds me of Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, always falling forward.Im not saying Tavon is a top 5 fantasy prospect, but you have him @20. Thats straight up crazy talk!Looking forward to the drafts this year, best of luck!

 

[Donnybrook]

Allen was always going to be a tough guy to peg because he's so unconventional. He's tall and thin like a finesse receiver, but his playing style is more like a possession/YAC receiver. I think the LaFell comparison is a bit harsh though and doesn't really capture the essence of his game. In a best case scenario I think he'll end up being used kind of like a Crabtree/Boldin/Colston. He isn't as thick as those guys, but that's who his playing style and overall package of skills most closely resembles. Basically a big frame possession WR who has a knack for getting open on short routes and making things happen after the catch.

I don't see top 5 upside with him. He's not going to be a dominant athlete at the NFL level. Doesn't have great strength. Doesn't have great speed. He's a guy who looks pretty safe when you watch the game clips though. The team that drafts him will know what they're getting. He's not going to make a ton of big plays downfield. If you move him around and let him work out of the slot, he'll be effective.

I used to think he was safe pick for an NFL team (not fantasy) but now I am not so sure. Unfortunately, Pac 10 wideouts like Dwayne Jarret have me questioning his pro potential. I know that it unfair to judge a player based on where he plays but I can't ignore it.

Here is a highlight video of Keenan Allen He's a good player

Thanks I have seen those. I just don't see him as being a safe pick when he doesn't have elite size or speed. Can a NFL team justify spending a high first round pick on him? I think he should be going near the bottom of the first ala Hakeem Nicks.

I dont get this. Is this thread about where he will be drafted and evaluated by NFL teams or how he will perform from a dynasty perspective? For example, Nicks is agreat WR and prolly top10 fantasy wise.

You are correct. I care more about my favorite NFL team than my fantasy team. My comments don't really apply here.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Doug Martin is huge. He's 223 pounds at just 5'9.2". One of the stockiest starting backs in the NFL. Only below guys like Turner, MJD, and T Rich.

Allen has above average size if all you look at is height, but he has below average size if you think in terms of weight and bulk, which I'd argue is a much better method. Here are the top 20 FF WRs in my PPR league last season and their corresponding BMI:

1. Calvin - 28.3

2. Marshall - 27.6

3. Bryant - 28.8

4. Green - 26.0

5. Thomas - 27.8

6. A Johnson - 29.5

7. Welker - 29.1

8. Wayne - 26.9

9. Decker - 27.0

10. Roddy - 27.2

11. Julio - 27.8

12. VJax - 28.9

13. Colston - 26.9

14. Cruz - 28.3

15. Crabtree - 28.1

16. Cobb - 27.2

17. Jam Jones - 27.6

18. Stevie - 27.2

19. M Williams - 29.2

20. Smith CAR - 27.2

What you notice is that there's a pretty narrow range of effective body types. 19 of the 20 WRs on this list have a higher BMI than Allen, so it's fair to say that his size is well below average. Here are the 40 times for the guys who are within 1 BMI point of Allen:

Green - 26.0 - 4.48

Wayne - 26.9 - 4.45

Decker - 27.0 - N/A

Roddy - 27.2 - 4.46

Colston - 26.9 - 4.50

Cobb - 27.2 - 4.46

Stevie - 27.2 - 4.58

Smith CAR - 27.2 - 4.41

What this shows is that most of the lighter WRs are also pretty fast. Stevie is the only guy on this list who clocked above 4.50, and I'd argue that he's just a #2 WR masquerading as a #1 on a team that lacks options. And therein lies the risk with Allen. Not only is he on the light side for WR, but he also doesn't have the speed that you would expect from a thinner player. That could change depending on how well he clocks at his pro day, but from where we stand now I think it's fair to say that he's lacking from a size/speed standpoint.

I still think he can be a solid contributor because he has a lot of the intangibles, but from a physical standpoint he doesn't stack up with the NFL's best and that's a concern, especially if you're hoping that he can become a really top notch player and not just a solid pro.

EBF - We have been through this BMI argument before. What happened to Jonathan Stewart?

Your response reminds me of when.....we have 1 unusual stretch of cold weather in October and everyone says "what ever happened to global warming?"

 

[EBF]

With pro days wrapping up fairly soon, I'm trying to start finalizing my pre-draft rankings.

I'm leaning towards a first tier of 6 players: Lacy, Eifert, and four WRs in no particular order yet (Patterson, Allen, Rogers, Hunter).

- At this point I think Lacy as RB1 and Eifert as TE1 should be virtually unanimous opinions. IMO Eifert is the closest thing to a can't-miss prospect in the draft. He checks off every box. Good college production. Excellent workout numbers (top 5 at his position in every single drill at the combine). Passes the eyeball test. Likely to be a first round pick. He might not have any jaw-dropping qualities, but he's really solid and should be considered in the top 2-3 picks in 1.5 PPR leagues.

- We still need to get workout numbers for Lacy, but I suspect that he'll test okay. As I've said previously, he's the only safe bet in this draft class to become a productive pro starter. I don't think he's an awesome talent or worthy of a top 20 NFL draft pick, but he should do well and his rookie draft stock benefits from the lack of viable alternatives. If you need a WR, there are several guys you can take who have good potential. If you need a RB, the pickings are pretty slim.

- The key to cracking this class (and the biggest challenge by far) remains sorting out these WR clusters. I think I'm starting to get a pretty good handle on what these players offer, but it's still difficult to project them. I'm leaning towards lumping Patterson, Allen, Rogers, and Hunter into the top group because I think they offer the best combination of difference-maker potential and low risk. However, I don't yet have a strong preference within that group. With Lacy and Eifert, I think you're getting a solid player. With these WRs, I think it's more like a game of Russian roulette. They all have some great qualities, but also some things that scare me. So it's about weighing the positives/negatives and trying to decide whose overall game is the strongest.

Patterson - Checks out athletically, with a great height/weight/speed/explosiveness profile. No doubting his athletic ability. Dynamic in the open field. Seems likely to be the first WR taken in April. Question marks about production and pure receiving skills. Is he just an athlete playing football? Hard to say because the sample size of his college career is so small. Was not blown away by his route running at the combine and still wonder if he can run crisp routes and consistently separate at the next level.

Allen - The opposite of Patterson in some respects. A natural receiver who shows everything you'd want to see from that standpoint. Quick and instinctive with good hands. Concerns would be primarily about raw athletic ability. He's quick, but he's not fast. He gets caught from behind after the catch. He's tall, but not very strong, especially in his upper body. I think he looks like a bit of a hybrid between Crabtree and Colston, but he's not quite that big and he could end up being a finesse/possession tweener. The fact that he hasn't tested for scouts yet is a bit of an issue. Is he ducking the process? Is he damaged goods?

Hunter - There's no doubting his vertical explosiveness. An elite leaper who also runs well for his height. Very good production last season. With his combination of height and athletic ability, he fits the mold of a top #1 NFL WR in some ways. On the other hand, he's extremely thin. Far more so than any elite NFL WR was at the same stage of his development. A bit linear and a bit of a long strider. Taller receivers usually sacrifice some lateral agility and suddenness because of their long strides, and I think that could be an issue for Hunter. Also has some minor durability concerns related to his knee injury.

Rogers - Really stands out on paper. Not quite as fast as Patterson, but his speed is fine for his height/weight and his jumps were off the charts. 39.5" vertical and 11' broad jump say he has explosiveness in droves. He also put up a great time in the three cone drill, suggesting that he's got some quickness/fluidity to go along with his strength/burst. Was really productive in 2011 before being kicked off the team. One thing I like about him is that, unlike Hunter and Allen, he fits a proven mold. He's your typical high weight power/possession style receiver. Not blazing fast, but big, athletic, and tough. In terms of concerns, I don't think he's a great route runner yet. He doesn't look as effective in that department as some of the other receivers in this class. It might be something that he can develop with good coaching or it might not. Right now I'd say he doesn't play as explosive as he tests. And then there's character. He's thought to be a major risk in that department. How will he handle money and notoriety?

I don't have a concrete order for these four WRs yet, but after weighing everything, I feel reasonably confident that they represent the best options of the likely early picks. I think Austin is probably too smurfish to be anything more than a part-time/slot guy, and I think Hopkins and Woods are probably too limited athletically to ever become #1 NFL receivers. I'd lump them into the second tier of WRs along with some other WR2 types and some high-risk/high-reward projects.

 

[ptsteelers]

With pro days wrapping up fairly soon, I'm trying to start finalizing my pre-draft rankings

I've always enjoyed your opinions EBF, and I actually use them, along with my own, to try and make informed decisions. Just my long winded way of saying thanks.

 

[werdnoynek]

With pro days wrapping up fairly soon, I'm trying to start finalizing my pre-draft rankings.

I'm leaning towards a first tier of 6 players: Lacy, Eifert, and four WRs in no particular order yet (Patterson, Allen, Rogers, Hunter).

- At this point I think Lacy as RB1 and Eifert as TE1 should be virtually unanimous opinions. IMO Eifert is the closest thing to a can't-miss prospect in the draft. He checks off every box. Good college production. Excellent workout numbers (top 5 at his position in every single drill at the combine). Passes the eyeball test. Likely to be a first round pick. He might not have any jaw-dropping qualities, but he's really solid and should be considered in the top 2-3 picks in 1.5 PPR leagues.

- We still need to get workout numbers for Lacy, but I suspect that he'll test okay. As I've said previously, he's the only safe bet in this draft class to become a productive pro starter. I don't think he's an awesome talent or worthy of a top 20 NFL draft pick, but he should do well and his rookie draft stock benefits from the lack of viable alternatives. If you need a WR, there are several guys you can take who have good potential. If you need a RB, the pickings are pretty slim.

- The key to cracking this class (and the biggest challenge by far) remains sorting out these WR clusters. I think I'm starting to get a pretty good handle on what these players offer, but it's still difficult to project them. I'm leaning towards lumping Patterson, Allen, Rogers, and Hunter into the top group because I think they offer the best combination of difference-maker potential and low risk. However, I don't yet have a strong preference within that group. With Lacy and Eifert, I think you're getting a solid player. With these WRs, I think it's more like a game of Russian roulette. They all have some great qualities, but also some things that scare me. So it's about weighing the positives/negatives and trying to decide whose overall game is the strongest.

Patterson - Checks out athletically, with a great height/weight/speed/explosiveness profile. No doubting his athletic ability. Dynamic in the open field. Seems likely to be the first WR taken in April. Question marks about production and pure receiving skills. Is he just an athlete playing football? Hard to say because the sample size of his college career is so small. Was not blown away by his route running at the combine and still wonder if he can run crisp routes and consistently separate at the next level.

Allen - The opposite of Patterson in some respects. A natural receiver who shows everything you'd want to see from that standpoint. Quick and instinctive with good hands. Concerns would be primarily about raw athletic ability. He's quick, but he's not fast. He gets caught from behind after the catch. He's tall, but not very strong, especially in his upper body. I think he looks like a bit of a hybrid between Crabtree and Colston, but he's not quite that big and he could end up being a finesse/possession tweener. The fact that he hasn't tested for scouts yet is a bit of an issue. Is he ducking the process? Is he damaged goods?

Hunter - There's no doubting his vertical explosiveness. An elite leaper who also runs well for his height. Very good production last season. With his combination of height and athletic ability, he fits the mold of a top #1 NFL WR in some ways. On the other hand, he's extremely thin. Far more so than any elite NFL WR was at the same stage of his development. A bit linear and a bit of a long strider. Taller receivers usually sacrifice some lateral agility and suddenness because of their long strides, and I think that could be an issue for Hunter. Also has some minor durability concerns related to his knee injury.

Rogers - Really stands out on paper. Not quite as fast as Patterson, but his speed is fine for his height/weight and his jumps were off the charts. 39.5" vertical and 11' broad jump say he has explosiveness in droves. He also put up a great time in the three cone drill, suggesting that he's got some quickness/fluidity to go along with his strength/burst. Was really productive in 2011 before being kicked off the team. One thing I like about him is that, unlike Hunter and Allen, he fits a proven mold. He's your typical high weight power/possession style receiver. Not blazing fast, but big, athletic, and tough. In terms of concerns, I don't think he's a great route runner yet. He doesn't look as effective in that department as some of the other receivers in this class. It might be something that he can develop with good coaching or it might not. Right now I'd say he doesn't play as explosive as he tests. And then there's character. He's thought to be a major risk in that department. How will he handle money and notoriety?

I don't have a concrete order for these four WRs yet, but after weighing everything, I feel reasonably confident that they represent the best options of the likely early picks. I think Austin is probably too smurfish to be anything more than a part-time/slot guy, and I think Hopkins and Woods are probably too limited athletically to ever become #1 NFL receivers. I'd lump them into the second tier of WRs along with some other WR2 types and some high-risk/high-reward projects.

pretty much how i'm seeing things too. agreed with the bolded. i'm surprised at how many people are higher on hopkins than hunter or rogers... prospect wise i don't think they're all that close.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Another wildcard is Marquess Wilson. Tested well enough at the combine, especially for his size and his 3-cone specifically was excellent. Produced in the past. Character concern obviously. I think after the Patterson/Rogers/Allen tier I have Hunter/Hopkins/Wilson. In his own tier depending entirely on landing spot is Austin. Then the rest.

 

[Faust]

20. WR Tavon Austin - My pick for most overrated FF prospect in the draft. People will see him as a Welker/Harvin proposition for FF and that might be possible, but in my view he's too small to handle a huge volume of targets and will be best used as a complementary weapon. I think he'll be like a better Andrew Hawkins. Someone who can make things happen with the ball in his hands, but not a guy who will get enough targets to be a reliable FF weapon. More valuable in the NFL than in FF. Will be overdrafted in FF on the basis of where a team takes him in April.

EBF, Im a huge fan for you putting yourself out there, but this review is horrible. It might be the worst I have ever read. Have you compared him to Welker at all? Have you watched him catch the ball? Have you watched his on the field vision? Have you watched one second of his tape?I would love for you to show me one bad clip of Tavon. Well, maybe 2 as there was this one when a punt bounced 45 degrees at speed and hit him 10 yards away. Other than that having watched every play of his college career, he is a complete player. If he was 6'0 or taller he would be a defacto top 10 pick. Did you watch his bench press? Do you see his hand measurements?cmon EBF, you are better than this!

He's an interesting player because he has dynamic qualities, was very productive, and will probably be a high pick.The big negative with him is obvious: size. By football standards, he's a dwarf at 5'8.4" 174 pounds. Almost 20 pounds lighter than Harvin, who he's often compared to. 21 pounds lighter than Welker. Yea, he's fast, but it comes at the expense of size. He's absolutely tiny. I think Austin is strictly a slot guy. If he goes to an elite passing offense with a quarterback who will feed him targets then maybe he can become a productive FF player like Welker and Harvin, but I think there's a huge risk that he ends up being Andrew Hawkins. A fast gadget weapon who doesn't catch nearly enough passes to be a reliable weekly starter for FF. I think CFN nailed their take on him:http://cfn.scout.com/2/1267803.html

7. Tavon Austin, West Virginia 5-9, 175 Proj. 2Positives: Fast, fast, fast, fast, FAST. Great with the ball in his hands in a variety of ways and is always able to come up with a big burst of speed whenever he gets the chance. … A great runner in an open field with the potential to become a special slot receiver. He’s going to be uncoverable at times. … Always producing. He doesn’t need a lot of room to make one cut and fly.Negatives: Size is going to be a problem. He was able to get by in college, but he won’t be able to take a licking at the next level going across the middle. … He’ll be used as a kick and punt returner, but his future will be as a receiver. He needs to work on becoming a full-time wideout, and while he could be a difference maker, it’ll be as a fun toy to play with. … He’ll be limited in what he can do for a passing game. He’s strictly an inside target.Really, What’s He Going To Do In The NFL? He’ll be a flash of lightning who’ll take over a game or two on his own. However, he’s not going to be a superstar receiver who’ll make ten grabs a game.

http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Darren&l=Sproles&i=7261Watch Tavon take his licks, he reminds me of Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, always falling forward.Im not saying Tavon is a top 5 fantasy prospect, but you have him @20. Thats straight up crazy talk!Looking forward to the drafts this year, best of luck!

Greg Cosell watches more tape than anyone out there and his initial take on Austin was as follows:

What I find as interesting as RO is how will A Tavon Austin be utilized in NFL? Will be play 50-60 snaps, or just 20-25? What's his role?

 

[EBF]

Another wildcard is Marquess Wilson. Tested well enough at the combine, especially for his size and his 3-cone specifically was excellent. Produced in the past. Character concern obviously. I think after the Patterson/Rogers/Allen tier I have Hunter/Hopkins/Wilson. In his own tier depending entirely on landing spot is Austin. Then the rest.

I think Wilson looks pretty good on the field and I'd be willing to take him somewhere in the 2nd round of a rookie draft. He has all of the necessary innate receiving skills and reminds me of a poor man's AJ Green from a body type/playing style standpoint. There are risks though. I always emphasize that you can't just look at height or weight in a vacuum. You have to look at them together. Wilson is a tall receiver, but he's certainly not a "big" receiver. His weight is extremely low for his height and his 40 time is a lot less impressive when viewed in that context. Guys like Da'Rick Rogers, Chris Harper, Marcus Davis, DeAndre Hopkins, and Cordarrelle Patterson ran comparable or better times with 20-40 pounds of extra weight on their backs. I have a few question marks with Wilson:- Does he have the suddenness/speed/explosiveness to consistently separate from NFL corners?- Is he too light to hold up to the punishment of the NFL? - Is he too light to cope with the physicality of NFL defensive backs?We know that he was productive in college and that he's a standout in terms of hands and body control. There are some issues though.

 

[EBF]

Greg Cosell watches more tape than anyone out there and his initial take on Austin was as follows:

What I find as interesting as RO is how will A Tavon Austin be utilized in NFL? Will be play 50-60 snaps, or just 20-25? What's his role?

If the early buzz is any indication, I think Austin and Lattimore are the two most likely prospects to be grossly overdrafted in rookie drafts. I've said my piece on Austin. I think he's a guy who has more NFL value than FF value. He's an exceptional talent, but also one who doesn't fit into any established mold. Seems to be a slot WR and nothing more. Maybe it's a case like DeSean Jackson or Chris Johnson where the special qualities will allow him to overcome his unconventional dimensions, but I would much rather gamble on one of the many prospects who seemingly has a higher chance of becoming a 130+ target outside receiver. When I'm looking for the next great top 10 FF WR, the 5'8.4" 174 pounders aren't usually too high on my list. With Lattimore, I think he was a little overrated all along and I don't think people are lending enough weight to his injury/durability issues. He's currently leading the poll for the 1.08 rookie pick. Madness, if you ask me. Too much risk that he never regains his old form. Even if he does somehow make it back, can he stay healthy? I have major doubts about that. In my view he's a major project whose name recognition will see teams gamble on him earlier than the odds justify. Some of that optimism might cool if he slips to the 4th-6th round in April.

 

[cstu]

Greg Cosell watches more tape than anyone out there and his initial take on Austin was as follows:

What I find as interesting as RO is how will A Tavon Austin be utilized in NFL? Will be play 50-60 snaps, or just 20-25? What's his role?

If the early buzz is any indication, I think Austin and Lattimore are the two most likely prospects to be grossly overdrafted in rookie drafts. I've said my piece on Austin. I think he's a guy who has more NFL value than FF value. He's an exceptional talent, but also one who doesn't fit into any established mold. Seems to be a slot WR and nothing more. Maybe it's a case like DeSean Jackson or Chris Johnson where the special qualities will allow him to overcome his unconventional dimensions, but I would much rather gamble on one of the many prospects who seemingly has a higher chance of becoming a 130+ target outside receiver. When I'm looking for the next great top 10 FF WR, the 5'8.4" 174 pounders aren't usually too high on my list. With Lattimore, I think he was a little overrated all along and I don't think people are lending enough weight to his injury/durability issues. He's currently leading the poll for the 1.08 rookie pick. Madness, if you ask me. Too much risk that he never regains his old form. Even if he does somehow make it back, can he stay healthy? I have major doubts about that. In my view he's a major project whose name recognition will see teams gamble on him earlier than the odds justify. Some of that optimism might cool if he slips to the 4th-6th round in April.

Totally agree with this. Austin is pure joy to watch and that will make people want to draft him. The idea of getting a stud RB in the mid-late 1st is going to be too tantalizing for some people, even despite the risks.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Thoughts on Dobson, post-pro day? I'm thinking he's easily better than the Harper, Wilson, Boyce tier. He timed 4.40/4.42. Might not be that fast, but he's fast at 6'3 210 and showed it at the Senior Bowl. Assuming the cat's out of the bag on Rogers, Dobson could be the best upside/value play IMO.

 

[EBF]

Dobson has been kind of a forgotten man for me. Partially because I never watched Marshall games and partially because he didn't work out at the combine. All I've seen is some highlights on YouTube. It's not enough to get a great read on him, but from the small sample size I'd say he's a rangy jump ball type of receiver with just okay strength and slightly above average speed. Like a lot of taller players, fluidity and separation might be an issue. The 7.2 seconds time in the three cone suggests he might not be the quickest start-stop guy.

Those 40 times are nice, but you never know about the accuracy with pro day times. And while he's tall, 210 is not particularly big for a 6'3" NFL receiver. For comparison's sake, Marcus Davis weighs 233 pounds at 6'2.4". Boyce weighs 206 pounds at 5'11". Patterson, Hopkins, and Rogers are all shorter and heavier as well. I would say those guys have more prototypical outside WR builds. Dobson is actually on the leaner side.

He looks like a 3rd-4th round NFL pick to me. Worth a punt, but not sure there's really a great ceiling there.

 

[thriftyrocker]

210 is not big for 6'3". It is bigger than Marquess Wilson though. His college production isn't tremendous either. I'm not saying I've watched him any more than you have, but from highlights and Senior Bowl stuff, speed/separation/fluidity don't seem like issues to me. Nor maturation/route running. Seems like a bigger Marvin Jones to me, which can be seen as a + and a - depending on which way you look at it.

 

[gianmarco]

. I think Austin is probably too smurfish to be anything more than a part-time/slot guy, and I think Hopkins and Woods are probably too limited athletically to ever become #1 NFL receivers. I'd lump them into the second tier of WRs along with some other WR2 types and some high-risk/high-reward projects.

I'd like to have this part unwrapped.Hopkins is 6'1 and 214 lbs. He has 10 inch hands (larger than Rogers), 33+ inch arms (longer than Rogers), had a 36 inch vertical (in the top 10) and only had a subpar broad jump at 115 inches. He did 5 more reps on the bench compared to Rogers and they both ran in the 4.5's. Hopkins also ran in the 4.4's at his Pro Day (I know, grain of salt).

I'm not saying he's an exceptional, stand-out, elite athlete. But I'm not seeing athletic "limitations" based on his size and measurables. The only concern was his broad jump, and taken in context with the rest of his performance, I'm not sure how much stock I'd put into that.

 

[EBF]

It's all relative. Hopkins isn't a terrible athlete, but he doesn't stack up with the best players at the position in his draft class, let alone in the NFL. His 40 time wasn't terrible for a player with his height/weight, but it certainly wasn't great either. His vert was solid. Poor broad jump for a 6'1"+ player. A relatively weak 40 and broad jump combination indicates a lack of upfield explosiveness. I'd say that's fair given what I've seen from him. He's a possession guy with range, toughness, and good initial quickness. Not a dominant athlete.

At the top of the draft I'm looking for more than just a solid complementary player. I'm looking for someone with standout tools. We don't have numbers on Keenan Allen yet, but here's what the other three first tier WRs did compared to Hopkins:

Cordarrelle Patterson

BMI - 28.0

40 - 4.42

Broad Jump - 10'8"

Vertical - 37"

Three Cone - ???

Da'Rick Rogers

BMI - 27.6

40 - 4.52

Broad Jump - 11'0"

Vertical - 39.5"

Three Cone - 6.71

Justin Hunter

BMI - 23.9

40 - 4.44

Broad Jump - 11'4"

Vertical - 39.5"

Three Cone - ???

DeAndre Hopkins

BMI - 28.2

40 - 4.57

Broad Jump - 9'7"

Vertical - 36"

Three Cone - ???

Hopkins the thickest of the group and that gives him a bit of an excuse, but overall I think it's fair to say that he's surrendering a lot of athletic ability to this trio. Rogers and Patterson have comparable dimensions, but blew him away in the tests. Hunter is a twig, but beyond that had a great workout profile.

I think you can make a good case for Hopkins as the first receiver in the second tier. However, he doesn't have any standout athletic traits apart from a good height/weight combo. There are numerous receivers in this draft who offer a more compelling package of tools.

 

[cstu]

Hopkins the thickest of the group and that gives him a bit of an excuse, but overall I think it's fair to say that he's surrendering a lot of athletic ability to this trio.

I agree with this, but he's also got the best tape (IMO) of the three.

 

[gianmarco]

Hopkins the thickest of the group and that gives him a bit of an excuse, but overall I think it's fair to say that he's surrendering a lot of athletic ability to this trio.

I agree with this, but he's also got the best tape (IMO) of the three.

And again, if that broad jump was 10'7" instead of 9'7", his numbers are right on par with those other 3 guys. He was significantly lacking there compared to the rest of his measureables which seems weird to me. FWIW, he had a 6.83 on his 3 cone drill during his pro-day and ran a 4.41 as well during his 2nd run. I know those pro day times are usually inflated, but that's still a pretty significant run. I'm not calling him an elite athlete, but he didn't strike out across the board. A 36 inch vertical demonstrates plenty of explosiveness. And if you watch him play, you don't see a guy that lacks athleticism at all.

 

[Xue]

. I think Austin is probably too smurfish to be anything more than a part-time/slot guy, and I think Hopkins and Woods are probably too limited athletically to ever become #1 NFL receivers. I'd lump them into the second tier of WRs along with some other WR2 types and some high-risk/high-reward projects.

I'd like to have this part unwrapped.Hopkins is 6'1 and 214 lbs. He has 10 inch hands (larger than Rogers), 33+ inch arms (longer than Rogers), had a 36 inch vertical (in the top 10) and only had a subpar broad jump at 115 inches. He did 5 more reps on the bench compared to Rogers and they both ran in the 4.5's. Hopkins also ran in the 4.4's at his Pro Day (I know, grain of salt).

I'm not saying he's an exceptional, stand-out, elite athlete. But I'm not seeing athletic "limitations" based on his size and measurables. The only concern was his broad jump, and taken in context with the rest of his performance, I'm not sure how much stock I'd put into that.

Hopkins didn't run a 4.4 at his Pro Day.

 

[gianmarco]

. I think Austin is probably too smurfish to be anything more than a part-time/slot guy, and I think Hopkins and Woods are probably too limited athletically to ever become #1 NFL receivers. I'd lump them into the second tier of WRs along with some other WR2 types and some high-risk/high-reward projects.

I'd like to have this part unwrapped.Hopkins is 6'1 and 214 lbs. He has 10 inch hands (larger than Rogers), 33+ inch arms (longer than Rogers), had a 36 inch vertical (in the top 10) and only had a subpar broad jump at 115 inches. He did 5 more reps on the bench compared to Rogers and they both ran in the 4.5's. Hopkins also ran in the 4.4's at his Pro Day (I know, grain of salt).

I'm not saying he's an exceptional, stand-out, elite athlete. But I'm not seeing athletic "limitations" based on his size and measurables. The only concern was his broad jump, and taken in context with the rest of his performance, I'm not sure how much stock I'd put into that.

Hopkins didn't run a 4.4 at his Pro Day.

Here it says he did

Hopkins put up a 4.41-second time in his second 40-yard run at the Tigers recently opened indoor football facility. Hopkins' first-run time of 4.46 seconds was also faster than his NFL combine time of 4.57 seconds.

 

[Xue]

. I think Austin is probably too smurfish to be anything more than a part-time/slot guy, and I think Hopkins and Woods are probably too limited athletically to ever become #1 NFL receivers. I'd lump them into the second tier of WRs along with some other WR2 types and some high-risk/high-reward projects.

I'd like to have this part unwrapped.Hopkins is 6'1 and 214 lbs. He has 10 inch hands (larger than Rogers), 33+ inch arms (longer than Rogers), had a 36 inch vertical (in the top 10) and only had a subpar broad jump at 115 inches. He did 5 more reps on the bench compared to Rogers and they both ran in the 4.5's. Hopkins also ran in the 4.4's at his Pro Day (I know, grain of salt).

I'm not saying he's an exceptional, stand-out, elite athlete. But I'm not seeing athletic "limitations" based on his size and measurables. The only concern was his broad jump, and taken in context with the rest of his performance, I'm not sure how much stock I'd put into that.

Hopkins didn't run a 4.4 at his Pro Day.

Here it says he did

Hopkins put up a 4.41-second time in his second 40-yard run at the Tigers recently opened indoor football facility. Hopkins' first-run time of 4.46 seconds was also faster than his NFL combine time of 4.57 seconds.

http://blogs.nfl.com/2013/03/10/twenty-nfl-teams-watch-clemson-pro-day/I posted this in the Pro Day thread:

DeAndre Hopkins didn't run anywhere near a 4.4. Many other sites report him at 4.55 to 4.58.

Using this vid:

 

[EBF]

And again, if that broad jump was 10'7" instead of 9'7", his numbers are right on par with those other 3 guys.

Jump number don't get the media play that 40 times do, so people aren't as good at putting them into context. The difference between jumping 11'0" and 9'7" is like the difference between running a 4.35 and a 4.60. It's not something that should be casually brushed off. The 11'0" broad jump by Rogers and the 11'4" by Hunter are ELITE marks. The 9'7" by Hopkins is really quite poor for a 6'1" receiver. And the 4.57 40 time, while not completely horrible, was on the low end of the spectrum. Here are the 210+ pound receivers who ran at the combine and their corresponding 40 timesatterson - 216 - 4.42

Harrison - 231 - 4.46

R Smith - 225 - 4.51

Rogers - 217 - 4.52

Mellette - 217 - 4.54

Harper - 229 - 4.55

Davis - 233 - 4.56

Hamilton - 212 - 4.56

Hopkins - 214 - 4.57

Kaufman - 216 - 4.67

Hopkins is within a few hundredths of almost all of these guys, but nevertheless comes in near the bottom.

Here are the broad jump results for all of the 6'0"+ receivers who jumped at the combined. I excluded the short receivers because the results in this drill tend to reflect stride length and thus favor taller players, making it futile to compare the results of a 6'3" receiver with a smurf like Ace Sanders or Tavon Austin (who both outjumped Hopkins, btw).

Hunter - 6'4" - 11'4"

Rogers - 6'2.7" - 11'0"

Harrison - 6'2.7" - 10'9"

Stills - 6'0.4" - 10'4"

Mellette - 6'2.4" - 10'3"

Goard - 6'3.6" - 10'3"

Wilson - 6'2.5" - 10'2"

Fuller - 6'2" - 10'0"

Davis - 6'2.4" - 10'0"

R Smith - 6'4.3" - 10'0"

Williams - 6'2" - 9'11"

Patton - 6'0" - 9'10"

Woods - 6'0.3" - 9'9"

Harper - 6'0.6" - 9'8"

Hopkins - 6'1" - 9'7"

Kaufman - 6'5" - 9'7"

Lemon - 6'1.2" - 9'4"

Hamilton - 6'1.6" - 8'11"

This not only demonstrates just how elite Rogers and Hunter tested in this drill, but also how poorly Hopkins did.

I'm generally willing to overlook bad results in one drill, but when you get consistently low figures it starts to become a concern. The fact that Hopkins was near the back of the pack in the 40 and the broad jump tells me he probably doesn't have a great deal of upfield explosiveness. He has a good frame and the solid vertical leap suggests a little bit of lower body power/fast twitch quickness, but overall his profile leaves a lot to be desired. Hence why I peg him as a second tier player. He likely doesn't have the pure juice to become a dominant pro #1.

For the sake of comparison, here is what some of the top NFL receivers did at the combine/pro day. The first figure is the BMI. The next three numbers are the 40 time, vertical, and broad jump:

Andre Johnson - 29.5 (4.41 - 39" - 11'0")

Vincent Jackson - 28.9 (4.46 - 39" - 10'9")

Dez Bryant - 28.8 (4.52 - 38" - 11'1")

Victor Cruz - 28.3 (4.47 - 41.5" - 10'5")

Calvin Johnson - 28.3 (4.35 - 42.5" - 11'7")

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.3 - results not available

Hakeem Nicks - 28.3 (4.51, 36", ??)

Michael Crabtree - 28.1 - did not work out before the draft

Demaryius Thomas - did not work out before the draft

Julio Jones - 27.8 (4.34 - 38.5" - 11'3")

Brandon Marshall - 27.6 (4.52 - 37" - 10'0")

Roddy White - 27.2 (4.46 - 41" - 10'6")

Steve Smith - 27.2 (4.41 - 38.5" - 10'1")

Reggie Wayne - 26.9 (4.45 - 36" - ???)

Marques Colston - 26.9 (4.50 - 37" - 10'3")

Percy Harvin - 26.7 (4.39 - 37.5" - 10'1")

AJ Green - 26.0 (4.48 - 34.5" - 10'6")

What this list tells me:

- Elite workout numbers are not sufficient in order to become an elite pro WR, but almost all elite NFL WRs were standout performers.

- You'll note that every single WR on this list ran below 4.55 and jumped at least 34.5" in the vert and 10'0" in the broad jump.

- 13 of the 14 WRs tested in the vertical jump matched or exceeded the 36" mark set by Hopkins.

- 14 of 14 WRs had a faster 40 time than Hopkins.

- 12 of 12 WRs had a longer broad jump than Hopkins.

So I think it's more than fair to say that he has questionable athleticism for a #1 WR. He's a dominant athlete compared to the average joe on the street, and he's a decent athlete compared to the average top WR prospect in his draft class, but he is totally outclassed by the vast majority of top flight NFL receivers. You could say he's within touching distance of Nicks, Colston, and Marshall from a measurables standpoint. That's probably a stretch though and he's nowhere near the Julio/Andre/Dez/Calvin/VJax level.

Contrast that with some of his classmates:

Marcus Davis - 29.0 (4.56 - 39.5" - 10'0")

Mark Harrison - 28.8 (4.46 - 38.5" - 10'9")

Josh Boyce - 28.6 (4.38 - 34" - 10'11")

Cordarrelle Patterson - 27.7 (4.42 - 37" - 10'8")

Da'Rick Rogers - 27.7 (4.52 - 39.5" - 11")

Ryan Swope - 27.5 (4.34 - 37" - 10'5")

Marquise Goodwin - 27.3 (4.27 - ? - 11'0")

Markus Wheaton - 26.3 (4.45 - 37" - 10'0")

Justin Hunter - 24.6 (4.44 - 39.5" - 11'4")

Many of these players have significant warts of their own and I'm not high on all of them, but this is probably a pretty good starting point if you're looking for a receiver from this draft class who has a chance to become a standout pro independent of supporting cast. When we look back at this class a few years from now, my guess is that the best players from this group will be names from the above list. Players like Woods, Patton, and Hopkins might be solid complementary guys, but on the surface don't seem to have strong WR1 potential.

 

[ZWK]

I agree with EBF on Hopkins' lack of athleticism. Steve Johnson and Antonio Brown are the best two WRs from the past several years that I know of who showed less athleticism at the combine (based on a combination of 40 time, vertical, and broad jump). In this year's combine, the only guys who were worse are Ace Sanders, Alec Lemon, Darius Johnson, Conner Vernon, and Cobi Hamilton.

I posted about this here, with some pictures. This graph shows this year's draft class, this one shows WRs who were successful in the NFL, and this one shows both. Left-to-right is college receiving statistics (right is good), up-down is combine performance (up is good), and Hopkins is the DH in the lower right.

 

[gianmarco]

I agree with EBF on Hopkins' lack of athleticism. Steve Johnson and Antonio Brown are the best two WRs from the past several years that I know of who showed less athleticism at the combine (based on a combination of 40 time, vertical, and broad jump). In this year's combine, the only guys who were worse are Ace Sanders, Alec Lemon, Darius Johnson, Conner Vernon, and Cobi Hamilton.

I posted about this here, with some pictures. This graph shows this year's draft class, this one shows WRs who were successful in the NFL, and this one shows both. Left-to-right is college receiving statistics (right is good), up-down is combine performance (up is good), and Hopkins is the DH in the lower right.

Those aren't the only guys at all. Boldin is a very similar comp (6'1, 216 lbs, 33.5 vert, 114 (9'6"), 7.35 three cone, 4.72 forty time). Guys like Cobb, Sidney Rice, Greg Jennings also all had sub 10 foot broad jumps.I'm just not seeing a lack of athleticism that would preclude him from being a top WR based on what I've seen of him. I understand his broad jump is poor and said as much above. The rest of his numbers are perfectly adequate.

 

[ZWK]

I agree with EBF on Hopkins' lack of athleticism. Steve Johnson and Antonio Brown are the best two WRs from the past several years that I know of who showed less athleticism at the combine (based on a combination of 40 time, vertical, and broad jump). In this year's combine, the only guys who were worse are Ace Sanders, Alec Lemon, Darius Johnson, Conner Vernon, and Cobi Hamilton.

I posted about this here, with some pictures. This graph shows this year's draft class, this one shows WRs who were successful in the NFL, and this one shows both. Left-to-right is college receiving statistics (right is good), up-down is combine performance (up is good), and Hopkins is the DH in the lower right.

Those aren't the only guys at all. Boldin is a very similar comp (6'1, 216 lbs, 33.5 vert, 114 (9'6"), 7.35 three cone, 4.72 forty time). Guys like Cobb, Sidney Rice, Greg Jennings also all had sub 10 foot broad jumps.I'm just not seeing a lack of athleticism that would preclude him from being a top WR based on what I've seen of him. I understand his broad jump is poor and said as much above. The rest of his numbers are perfectly adequate.

Rice and Jennings were better than Hopkins in all three drills, in some cases by a lot (Jennings ran a 4.42). Cobb ran a 4.46. He didn't do as well on the jumps but on the weighted average of 40 time, vertical, and broad which I looked at he was slightly above average among combine participants (and clearly better than Hopkins), though on the low end compared to other successful WRs. Boldin was worse than Hopkins on all three drills, which shows that WRs with poor combine numbers do succeed from time to time, but it doesn't happen very often (Boldin came out in 2003, which is why I didn't include him - the data set that I was relying on in my other post didn't go back that far).Out of 17 WRs in my data set who were successful in the NFL and had pre-draft workouts (14 at the combine, 3 at pro days), Hopkins' workout numbers were worse than all but two - Steve Johnson and Antonio Brown.

 

[gianmarco]

I agree with EBF on Hopkins' lack of athleticism. Steve Johnson and Antonio Brown are the best two WRs from the past several years that I know of who showed less athleticism at the combine (based on a combination of 40 time, vertical, and broad jump). In this year's combine, the only guys who were worse are Ace Sanders, Alec Lemon, Darius Johnson, Conner Vernon, and Cobi Hamilton.

I posted about this here, with some pictures. This graph shows this year's draft class, this one shows WRs who were successful in the NFL, and this one shows both. Left-to-right is college receiving statistics (right is good), up-down is combine performance (up is good), and Hopkins is the DH in the lower right.

Those aren't the only guys at all. Boldin is a very similar comp (6'1, 216 lbs, 33.5 vert, 114 (9'6"), 7.35 three cone, 4.72 forty time). Guys like Cobb, Sidney Rice, Greg Jennings also all had sub 10 foot broad jumps.I'm just not seeing a lack of athleticism that would preclude him from being a top WR based on what I've seen of him. I understand his broad jump is poor and said as much above. The rest of his numbers are perfectly adequate.

Rice and Jennings were better than Hopkins in all three drills, in some cases by a lot (Jennings ran a 4.42). Cobb ran a 4.46. He didn't do as well on the jumps but on the weighted average of 40 time, vertical, and broad which I looked at he was slightly above average among combine participants (and clearly better than Hopkins), though on the low end compared to other successful WRs. Boldin was worse than Hopkins on all three drills, which shows that WRs with poor combine numbers do succeed from time to time, but it doesn't happen very often (Boldin came out in 2003, which is why I didn't include him - the data set that I was relying on in my other post didn't go back that far).Out of 17 WRs in my data set who were successful in the NFL and had pre-draft workouts (14 at the combine, 3 at pro days), Hopkins' workout numbers were worse than all but two - Steve Johnson and Antonio Brown.

Fair enough and I appreciate the response. I do find it interesting since on the field he looks plenty athletic but it's something to be aware of. To me, he's the most natural looking WR out there with great tracking ability and sick hands and just looks so fluid.

 

[finito]

I think Hopkins is going to be very good, combine numbers be damned! Good debate on him for sure though. When I watch him he just seems to have *it* to me, so I'm targeting him in all my rookie drafts. I'm also a huge believer in Da'Rick Rodgers, so maybe I'm setting myself up for misery.

 

[EBF]

As I've said before, the problem with this WR class is that there's not a lot of overlap between the group of players with elite WR skills and the group of players with elite physical tools. I thought Woods and Hopkins looked the best overall at the combine in terms of running clean routes and catching the ball well, but neither guy is an explosive athlete.

On the flipside, the guys like Rogers, Harrison, and Patterson who have all of the physical tools on paper didn't necessarily look fantastic in the positional drills. Ideally you'd have a guy like Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, or Julio Jones who has no question marks. That guy isn't in this draft though, so you're left to pick and choose between different flaws.

I think Rogers, Patterson, and Hunter probably have the highest ceilings of the likely top 50-60 draft picks. Maybe Allen too. Those are the guys I would focus on in the early portion of the rookie draft. Hence why they're in my first tier.

Josh Boyce is probably the most underappreciated in terms of athletic ability and upside. All of the talk is about guys like Patterson and Austin, but I thought Boyce looked like the best pure athlete among the WRs at the combine. That's backed up by his workout numbers. Only 5'11", but a massive 28.7 BMI. That's a higher weight per height ratio than Patterson, Rogers, and Hopkins. Boyce smoked them all in the 40. Ran 4.38, jumped 10'11", and destroyed the three cone drill. He'll be an interesting case because most of the scouts and pundits only rate him as a 4th-5th round talent, but he has rare qualities that could see him become a standout pro.

 

[Faust]

As I've said before, the problem with this WR class is that there's not a lot of overlap between the group of players with elite WR skills and the group of players with elite physical tools. I thought Woods and Hopkins looked the best overall at the combine in terms of running clean routes and catching the ball well, but neither guy is an explosive athlete. On the flipside, the guys like Rogers, Harrison, and Patterson who have all of the physical tools on paper didn't necessarily look fantastic in the positional drills. Ideally you'd have a guy like Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, or Julio Jones who has no question marks. That guy isn't in this draft though, so you're left to pick and choose between different flaws.I think Rogers, Patterson, and Hunter probably have the highest ceilings of the likely top 50-60 draft picks. Maybe Allen too. Those are the guys I would focus on in the early portion of the rookie draft. Hence why they're in my first tier. Josh Boyce is probably the most underappreciated in terms of athletic ability and upside. All of the talk is about guys like Patterson and Austin, but I thought Boyce looked like the best pure athlete among the WRs at the combine. That's backed up by his workout numbers. Only 5'11", but a massive 28.7 BMI. That's a higher weight per height ratio than Patterson, Rogers, and Hopkins. Boyce smoked them all in the 40. Ran 4.38, jumped 10'11", and destroyed the three cone drill. He'll be an interesting case because most of the scouts and pundits only rate him as a 4th-5th round talent, but he has rare qualities that could see him become a standout pro.

The beauty of the NFL Draft is that it isn't ever an exact science. Teams miss evaluate guys all the time, and often the "can't miss" guys become spectacular busts, while mid round, late round and UDFA guys come out of nowhere. Of course, all things being equal, I will prefer the first round WR over the 5th round guy, but I agree that a guy like Boyce could end up being one of the better WRs from the 2013 draft class.

 

[cstu]

Josh Boyce is probably the most underappreciated in terms of athletic ability and upside. All of the talk is about guys like Patterson and Austin, but I thought Boyce looked like the best pure athlete among the WRs at the combine. That's backed up by his workout numbers. Only 5'11", but a massive 28.7 BMI. That's a higher weight per height ratio than Patterson, Rogers, and Hopkins. Boyce smoked them all in the 40. Ran 4.38, jumped 10'11", and destroyed the three cone drill. He'll be an interesting case because most of the scouts and pundits only rate him as a 4th-5th round talent, but he has rare qualities that could see him become a standout pro.

I have Boyce pegged somewhere between Greg Jennings and Bethel Johnson.

 

[Xue]

Josh Boyce is probably the most underappreciated in terms of athletic ability and upside. All of the talk is about guys like Patterson and Austin, but I thought Boyce looked like the best pure athlete among the WRs at the combine. That's backed up by his workout numbers. Only 5'11", but a massive 28.7 BMI. That's a higher weight per height ratio than Patterson, Rogers, and Hopkins. Boyce smoked them all in the 40. Ran 4.38, jumped 10'11", and destroyed the three cone drill. He'll be an interesting case because most of the scouts and pundits only rate him as a 4th-5th round talent, but he has rare qualities that could see him become a standout pro.

I have Boyce pegged somewhere between Greg Jennings and Bethel Johnson.

Victor Cruz is probably the best comparison. Boyce can be a dynamic/explosive slot receiver in the same mold. I don't like his over the shoulder deep ball tracking abilities.

 

[ZWK]

I agree with EBF on Hopkins' lack of athleticism. Steve Johnson and Antonio Brown are the best two WRs from the past several years that I know of who showed less athleticism at the combine (based on a combination of 40 time, vertical, and broad jump). In this year's combine, the only guys who were worse are Ace Sanders, Alec Lemon, Darius Johnson, Conner Vernon, and Cobi Hamilton.

I posted about this here, with some pictures. This graph shows this year's draft class, this one shows WRs who were successful in the NFL, and this one shows both. Left-to-right is college receiving statistics (right is good), up-down is combine performance (up is good), and Hopkins is the DH in the lower right.

Those aren't the only guys at all. Boldin is a very similar comp (6'1, 216 lbs, 33.5 vert, 114 (9'6"), 7.35 three cone, 4.72 forty time). Guys like Cobb, Sidney Rice, Greg Jennings also all had sub 10 foot broad jumps.I'm just not seeing a lack of athleticism that would preclude him from being a top WR based on what I've seen of him. I understand his broad jump is poor and said as much above. The rest of his numbers are perfectly adequate.

Rice and Jennings were better than Hopkins in all three drills, in some cases by a lot (Jennings ran a 4.42). Cobb ran a 4.46. He didn't do as well on the jumps but on the weighted average of 40 time, vertical, and broad which I looked at he was slightly above average among combine participants (and clearly better than Hopkins), though on the low end compared to other successful WRs. Boldin was worse than Hopkins on all three drills, which shows that WRs with poor combine numbers do succeed from time to time, but it doesn't happen very often (Boldin came out in 2003, which is why I didn't include him - the data set that I was relying on in my other post didn't go back that far).Out of 17 WRs in my data set who were successful in the NFL and had pre-draft workouts (14 at the combine, 3 at pro days), Hopkins' workout numbers were worse than all but two - Steve Johnson and Antonio Brown.

Fair enough and I appreciate the response. I do find it interesting since on the field he looks plenty athletic but it's something to be aware of. To me, he's the most natural looking WR out there with great tracking ability and sick hands and just looks so fluid.

To be a more thorough, here are the top 20 NFL receivers who entered the league from 1999-2011, and were below average in athleticism shown at the combine. "Athleticism Scores" are based on their combined score on the 40, vertical, broad jump, relative other other combine WR participants (average is 4.51, 35.5", and 9'11"):
athlet player year height weight-0.8 Chad Johnson 2001 73 192-1.6 Anquan Boldin 2003 73 216-0.8 Plaxico Burress 2000 78 231-0.4 Darrell Jackson 2000 73 197-0.1 Jordy Nelson 2008 75 217-0.5 Steve Johnson 2008 74 210-0.2 Antonio Bryant 2002 73 188-0.1 Jerricho Cotchery 2004 73 212-0.4 Peerless Price 1999 71 180-0.3 Koren Robinson 2001 74 211-0.6 Brandon Lloyd 2003 73 184-0.3 Mike Williams 2010 74 221-0.3 James Jones 2007 73 207-0.7 Mario Manningham 2008 73 181-0.1 Brian Hartline 2009 74 195-0.8 Antonio Brown 2010 70 186-0.3 Austin Collie 2009 73 200-1.2 Michael Clayton 2004 75 209-0.2 Mike Williams 2005 77 229-0.2 Mohamed Massaquoi 2009 74 210(Jabar Gaffney and Eric Decker might belong with this group too, since they didn't do the pre-draft drills but were projected for below-average 40 times by nfldraftscout.com.)I see three trends here: guys who were barely below average at the combine (say, scores of -0.3 or better), guys who entered the league in the early 2000s (perhaps they prepared less for the combine then? I didn't adjust for era), and guys who aren't that good. In other words, good players who showed below-average athleticism at the combine are pretty rare these days.

(These are also mostly bigger players, although some of that may be errors in the data set - I got the numbers from nflcombineresults.com, who seem to round 6'0" players up to 6'1").

 

[Faust]

Greg Cosell watches more tape than anyone out there and his initial take on Austin was as follows:

What I find as interesting as RO is how will A Tavon Austin be utilized in NFL? Will be play 50-60 snaps, or just 20-25? What's his role?

If the early buzz is any indication, I think Austin and Lattimore are the two most likely prospects to be grossly overdrafted in rookie drafts. I've said my piece on Austin. I think he's a guy who has more NFL value than FF value. He's an exceptional talent, but also one who doesn't fit into any established mold. Seems to be a slot WR and nothing more. Maybe it's a case like DeSean Jackson or Chris Johnson where the special qualities will allow him to overcome his unconventional dimensions, but I would much rather gamble on one of the many prospects who seemingly has a higher chance of becoming a 130+ target outside receiver. When I'm looking for the next great top 10 FF WR, the 5'8.4" 174 pounders aren't usually too high on my list. With Lattimore, I think he was a little overrated all along and I don't think people are lending enough weight to his injury/durability issues. He's currently leading the poll for the 1.08 rookie pick. Madness, if you ask me. Too much risk that he never regains his old form. Even if he does somehow make it back, can he stay healthy? I have major doubts about that. In my view he's a major project whose name recognition will see teams gamble on him earlier than the odds justify. Some of that optimism might cool if he slips to the 4th-6th round in April.

Totally agree with this. Austin is pure joy to watch and that will make people want to draft him. The idea of getting a stud RB in the mid-late 1st is going to be too tantalizing for some people, even despite the risks.

Cosell has now had time to watch a little more tape on Tavon Austin (from Rotoworld):

NFL Films' Greg Cosell questioned why West Virginia WR Tavon Austin isn't considered a top 10 selection.

"Most explosive playmaker in draft," Cosell tweeted. "Can align anywhere. Matchup nightmare. Could be caught in transition phase in NFL. More of space game now. More multiple uses for players like Austin. Like Cobb in GB last season." Cosell added that Austin isn't just a slot receiver, "he is more than that."

Source: Greg Cosell on Twitter

 

[ZWK]

On Hopkins, I should add that NFL teams seem to do a pretty good job of taking athleticism into account when they decide where to draft a player. That means that players whose combine drills are as bad as Hopkins' are rarely drafted in the first 2 rounds (I think that Michael Clayton in 2004 was the last one, although a few others since then have been close, or have skipped the combine). But when players with relatively low combine-measured athleticism are taken early they do about as well as other players with similar draft spots (e.g., Bowe, Nicks, Jordy Nelson, Sidney Rice, and Cobb were all pretty average; so were McCluster, Benn, Sweed, and Massaquoi).

 

[Chachi]

The Chachinator has been unloading 2013 picks for 2014 picks and Kaepernick!!!

This class reeks like a rotten egg on a goats rear end!

 

[lbouchard]

The Chachinator has been unloading 2013 picks for 2014 picks and Kaepernick!!!

Your schtick is horrendous. Plain awful.