[DYNASTY] Matt Forte (2 Viewers)

[Knobs]

I guarantee you that any poll of the leagues GMs, RB coaches, middle linebackers, and anyone else who concerns themselves with questions of talent and ability in running backs would put Forte among the leagues top 12-15 backs, and I'm sure that some would have him in the top 7-8.

C'mon now. If we remove guys not for talent but for age or injury (Ricky, Thomas Jones, Ronnie, Felix, Portis, LT - all of these folk imo are better right now) here's some rb's that imo are clearly better than Forte:ADPMJDChris JohnsonFrank GoreSJaxDeAngeloJonathan StewartRay RiceBensonBarberJacobsTurnerPierre ThomasMAYBE Beanie, Moreno, Mendenhall.Then there are guys that I believe are at his level. Addai, Slaton...So...at *best* Forte falls into the early teens...and that's after you remove guys for injuries and age. He's a fine talent. You don't even make it to the NFL unless you have gobs of talent. He's average for an NFL starting running back (32 teams...not a high bar being set). However, Chicago doesn't have a lot of draft picks coming up. They have more pressing matters to attend to than replacing Forte. I don't think Forte is so terrible they would go out of their way to find a replacement, but I don't believe they would ignore a rookie or FA if the opportunity presented itself.That lack of security isn't worth a high draft pick. At the same time, he is producing right now and I don't see any reason he won't continue to do so for the near future...which means he does have value here and now.ETA - I don't like Forte so I have him below a few more guys than I listed. But even giving the benefit of the doubt to his supporters, how can you rank him above any of those guys listed?

 

[Herm23]

The Anti-Forte crowd is getting a little too self-congratulatory here, and in some ways they are guilty of the same thing they were criticizing the pro-Forte for doing at the beginning of the year - confusing numbers with talent.

Is Forte on the level of Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams? Nope. He was mixed in with these guys in drafts, and the anti-Forte crowd really wanted to make a point that he wasn't as good as them. Point taken.

Now that Forte's numbers are lagging, the anti-Forte wants to kick him to the curb and brand him as "average". There's no way that Forte is an average back. I guarantee you that any poll of the leagues GMs, RB coaches, middle linebackers, and anyone else who concerns themselves with questions of talent and ability in running backs would put Forte among the leagues top 12-15 backs, and I'm sure that some would have him in the top 7-8. Forte is much, much better than an average talent. He's an outstanding pass catcher, a big back that can generate power, but still have the feet and creativity to make things happen in the open field, plus a second gear to break long runs , and he is a very well-rounded back who always plays with a lot of heart and smarts.

Forte is one of the few remaining true feature backs, and his best football is definitely ahead of him. The Bears offensive line is just not built to drive block, even national observers have noted this. This is somewhat akin to people trashing Steven Jackson earlier in the season because he wasn't scoring and going over 100 yards. A little premature? If you watched him, you saw that he hadn't lost a thing, and neither has Forte.

While I disagree with this entire statement as a whole, the part in bold is ESPECIALLY misleading, so let's deal with that first. Even more than just stats, the "eye test" is where Forte fails the most. When you watch him play, you simply do not see ANYTHING that would lead you to believe he is anything more than marginally above average. While he does possess a great opportunity in that he sees every down work, let's briefly dissect all of the things he does not possess:- He has absolutely no burst. while he may have a putrid OL, he does not hit what few holes there are with any kind of authority. Referencing the "eye test" again, he simply looks like he runs with weights attached to his ankles

- He has average vision at best. People keep referencing his great vision as an asset, but I just don't agree. As someone who was a Forte owner and closely watched EVERY game he played last season and this season to determine if I should hold or trade him, trust me when I say he misses holes, fails to bounce plays outside when he should, has no concept of when to cut back or change direction, and generally costs himself yards by missing better angles of attack

- He lacks top end speed. I believe someone in this thread said that he has a 2nd gear to bust long ones...ummmm, what? He is far, far more likely to get caught from behind after he gets to the second level than to take it to the house. Back to what I said earlier, he appears to run with ankles around his weights, and the speed at which defenders close on him in space is shocking

- He has limited power. This is another skill that some have tried to say Forte possess, but again, he does not. He is unable to move piles at all. While he is capable of running downhill, it is clear he requires some sort of surge or push from his offensive line to get it going, something MOST other elite running backs (or even those in the top 12 or 15, as someone tried to claim Forte is) can do on their own. This is one of the things that has been exposed the most this year with the struggles of his offensive line.

- He absolutely, positively can not fight through contact. This is clearly the single biggest thing that has been exposed during this season. Sure, his offensive line has played poorly and have certainly contributed to his sagging numbers. However, ANY running back worth his salt would still be capable of producing SOMETHING out of the bad situation. The truth is, Forte can't because he goes down at first contact almost EVERY time. There have been countless times where a small hole has been open, Forte hits it, and rather than fight through an arm tackle or break first contact by a waiting linebacker to reach the 2nd level, he simply goes down. This is the true reason his YPC are so dismal. It's not purely the offensive line (although it is a factor), it is not Cutler's struggles, nor is it the play calling. It is Forte's inability to turn 2-3 yard gains into 6+ yard gains by fighting through initial contact, something ANY elite running back is able to do (and a big sign that Forte is nowhere close to elite or among the top 12-15 running backs in the league).

- Last, he is not a "weapon" in ANY facet of the game. I think it is pretty clear he isn't a weapon as a runner, as most have already alluded to and even Forte backers have somewhat conceded. However, those that support Forte continually say he makes up for that by being a "weapon" in the passing game. Really? I guess we have a differing opinion of what a weapon is then. If you simply mean that he is available for check downs, RARELY runs deep routes, and typically catches the check down and gains minimal yardage, then yes, I suppose by that definition he is a "weapon". However, I see a "weapon" as someone who can actually make a difference with his touches. Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Gore, Sproles, etc... (trust me, I could go on) are pass catching "weapons" out of the backfield. They don't just catch dump offs when a QB is at the end of his progression (watch any of them play and you will see them run actual routes downfield and have the ball thrown to them from time to time, something Forte rarely, if ever, does), but even more importantly, when they do receive dump offs, THEY DO SOMETHING WITH IT. They don't simply run 2-5 yards downfield and go down, frequently prompting a punt. These "weapons" actually make someone miss or fight through contact and pick up difference making yardage.

As to the rest of the post, stating that anyone "in the know" would rank Forte among the top 12-15 running backs in the league...well I could not disagree more. Defensive coordinators, linebackers, defensive backs, coaches, etc... fear players that bring something to the table that forces you to game plan against. Forte does not. He brings a very vanilla skill set that may not be terrible in any one area, but really doesnt excel in any either (with the possible exception of blitz pickup and the ability to stay healthy, which is a skill and he deserves credit for). Right off the top of my head, here are 12 running backs that I think any coach or player would clearly fear more and rate higher than Forte: Gore, Steven Jackson, AD, Chris Johnson, MJD, Ray Rice, DWill, Jonothan Stewart, Michael Turner, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Brandon Jacobs. Those 12 players are CLEARLY bigger headaches for NFL people to game plan and deal with and I don't think you can really doubt that. That means that the statement "anyone who concerns themselves with questions of talent and ability in running backs would put Forte among the leagues top 12-15 backs" could definitely not be true, as I don't see how ANYONE would rank Forte ahead of any of those 12. Now let's look at the next group of players, all of whom are at worst on the same level as Forte (and quite possibly better depending on perspective and/or giving them a longer track record to work with)- Reggie Bush, Felix Jones, Beanie Wells, Rashard Mendenhall, Marion Barber, Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, Joseph Addai, Knowshon Moreno, LT, Ryan Grant, Darren Sproles, Steve Slayton, Pierre Thomas. If you include them (and really, I admit the 2nd set is more debatable), that puts forte somewhere around the 26th best running back in the NFL (give or take a few spots depending on your views of specific players). NFL people don't value skills that can be found in 4th-7th round picks (3rd down passing situation skills) nearly enough to even come close to ranking Forte among the top 7 or 8 running backs in the league when he lacks all of the abilities necessary to excel on 1st and 2nd down (something you also stated, which was probably the most ludicrous portion of your entire post). While people will have different views and many will put him ahead of some of the guys from the 2nd set I listed, what is clear is that he doesn't even come CLOSE to sniffing being ranked in the top 12-15, let alone the top 7 or 8.

Does any of this REALLY sound like a guy who belongs as an NFL starter? Afterall, we are talking about a player who's best skill is the ability to effectively pick up a blitz. To me, that sounds eerily like a player who is best suited for 3rd down work, backing up someone who possesses all of the skills that Forte does not.

 

[gianmarco]

The Anti-Forte crowd is getting a little too self-congratulatory here, and in some ways they are guilty of the same thing they were criticizing the pro-Forte for doing at the beginning of the year - confusing numbers with talent.

Is Forte on the level of Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams? Nope. He was mixed in with these guys in drafts, and the anti-Forte crowd really wanted to make a point that he wasn't as good as them. Point taken.

Now that Forte's numbers are lagging, the anti-Forte wants to kick him to the curb and brand him as "average". There's no way that Forte is an average back. I guarantee you that any poll of the leagues GMs, RB coaches, middle linebackers, and anyone else who concerns themselves with questions of talent and ability in running backs would put Forte among the leagues top 12-15 backs, and I'm sure that some would have him in the top 7-8. Forte is much, much better than an average talent. He's an outstanding pass catcher, a big back that can generate power, but still have the feet and creativity to make things happen in the open field, plus a second gear to break long runs , and he is a very well-rounded back who always plays with a lot of heart and smarts.

Forte is one of the few remaining true feature backs, and his best football is definitely ahead of him. The Bears offensive line is just not built to drive block, even national observers have noted this. This is somewhat akin to people trashing Steven Jackson earlier in the season because he wasn't scoring and going over 100 yards. A little premature? If you watched him, you saw that he hadn't lost a thing, and neither has Forte.

While I disagree with this entire statement as a whole, the part in bold is ESPECIALLY misleading, so let's deal with that first. Even more than just stats, the "eye test" is where Forte fails the most. When you watch him play, you simply do not see ANYTHING that would lead you to believe he is anything more than marginally above average. While he does possess a great opportunity in that he sees every down work, let's briefly dissect all of the things he does not possess:- He has absolutely no burst. while he may have a putrid OL, he does not hit what few holes there are with any kind of authority. Referencing the "eye test" again, he simply looks like he runs with weights attached to his ankles

- He has average vision at best. People keep referencing his great vision as an asset, but I just don't agree. As someone who was a Forte owner and closely watched EVERY game he played last season and this season to determine if I should hold or trade him, trust me when I say he misses holes, fails to bounce plays outside when he should, has no concept of when to cut back or change direction, and generally costs himself yards by missing better angles of attack

- He lacks top end speed. I believe someone in this thread said that he has a 2nd gear to bust long ones...ummmm, what? He is far, far more likely to get caught from behind after he gets to the second level than to take it to the house. Back to what I said earlier, he appears to run with ankles around his weights, and the speed at which defenders close on him in space is shocking

- He has limited power. This is another skill that some have tried to say Forte possess, but again, he does not. He is unable to move piles at all. While he is capable of running downhill, it is clear he requires some sort of surge or push from his offensive line to get it going, something MOST other elite running backs (or even those in the top 12 or 15, as someone tried to claim Forte is) can do on their own. This is one of the things that has been exposed the most this year with the struggles of his offensive line.

- He absolutely, positively can not fight through contact. This is clearly the single biggest thing that has been exposed during this season. Sure, his offensive line has played poorly and have certainly contributed to his sagging numbers. However, ANY running back worth his salt would still be capable of producing SOMETHING out of the bad situation. The truth is, Forte can't because he goes down at first contact almost EVERY time. There have been countless times where a small hole has been open, Forte hits it, and rather than fight through an arm tackle or break first contact by a waiting linebacker to reach the 2nd level, he simply goes down. This is the true reason his YPC are so dismal. It's not purely the offensive line (although it is a factor), it is not Cutler's struggles, nor is it the play calling. It is Forte's inability to turn 2-3 yard gains into 6+ yard gains by fighting through initial contact, something ANY elite running back is able to do (and a big sign that Forte is nowhere close to elite or among the top 12-15 running backs in the league).

- Last, he is not a "weapon" in ANY facet of the game. I think it is pretty clear he isn't a weapon as a runner, as most have already alluded to and even Forte backers have somewhat conceded. However, those that support Forte continually say he makes up for that by being a "weapon" in the passing game. Really? I guess we have a differing opinion of what a weapon is then. If you simply mean that he is available for check downs, RARELY runs deep routes, and typically catches the check down and gains minimal yardage, then yes, I suppose by that definition he is a "weapon". However, I see a "weapon" as someone who can actually make a difference with his touches. Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Gore, Sproles, etc... (trust me, I could go on) are pass catching "weapons" out of the backfield. They don't just catch dump offs when a QB is at the end of his progression (watch any of them play and you will see them run actual routes downfield and have the ball thrown to them from time to time, something Forte rarely, if ever, does), but even more importantly, when they do receive dump offs, THEY DO SOMETHING WITH IT. They don't simply run 2-5 yards downfield and go down, frequently prompting a punt. These "weapons" actually make someone miss or fight through contact and pick up difference making yardage.

As to the rest of the post, stating that anyone "in the know" would rank Forte among the top 12-15 running backs in the league...well I could not disagree more. Defensive coordinators, linebackers, defensive backs, coaches, etc... fear players that bring something to the table that forces you to game plan against. Forte does not. He brings a very vanilla skill set that may not be terrible in any one area, but really doesnt excel in any either (with the possible exception of blitz pickup and the ability to stay healthy, which is a skill and he deserves credit for). Right off the top of my head, here are 12 running backs that I think any coach or player would clearly fear more and rate higher than Forte: Gore, Steven Jackson, AD, Chris Johnson, MJD, Ray Rice, DWill, Jonothan Stewart, Michael Turner, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Brandon Jacobs. Those 12 players are CLEARLY bigger headaches for NFL people to game plan and deal with and I don't think you can really doubt that. That means that the statement "anyone who concerns themselves with questions of talent and ability in running backs would put Forte among the leagues top 12-15 backs" could definitely not be true, as I don't see how ANYONE would rank Forte ahead of any of those 12. Now let's look at the next group of players, all of whom are at worst on the same level as Forte (and quite possibly better depending on perspective and/or giving them a longer track record to work with)- Reggie Bush, Felix Jones, Beanie Wells, Rashard Mendenhall, Marion Barber, Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, Joseph Addai, Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Grant, Darren Sproles, Steve Slayton, Pierre Thomas. If you include them (and really, I admit the 2nd set is more debatable), that puts forte somewhere around the 25th best running back in the NFL (give or take a few spots depending on your views of specific players). NFL people don't value skills that can be found in 4th-7th round picks (3rd down passing skills) nearly enough to even come close to ranking Forte among the top 7 or 8 running backs in the league (something you also stated, which was probably the most ludicrous portion of your entire post). While people will have different views and many will put him ahead of some of the guys from the 2nd set I listed, what is clear is that he doesn't even come CLOSE to sniffing being ranked in the top 12-15, let alone the top 7 or 8.

Does any of this REALLY sound like a guy who belongs as an NFL starter? Afterall, we are talking about a player who's best skill is the ability to effectively pick up a blitz. To me, that sounds eerily like a player who is best suited for 3rd down work, backing up someone who possesses all of the skills that Forte does not.

Couldn't agree any more with this. This is exactly what I see when I watch Forte. He's very similar to Lynch in the same regard. Remember how well Lynch did his 1st year because of all the touches? Suspensions aside, who's still in love with Lynch and has him rated as a top 5 RB? That was just 2 short years ago.

 

[SSOG]

Come on, LOL. You're claiming he produced because of his big workload, but his points-per-touch was outstanding. Of course he gets a point for a catch. That's my point. He's one of the best pass-catchers in the league. See the correlation? You don't get points for being named Larry, but you do a get a point for making a catch. The best pass-catchers generally have the most receptions. That should be pretty clear. Points-per-touch does have relevance. That's why I mentioned his points-per-touch when people bring up his workload. It's simple, really.But yes, stats are tremendously overrated when making evaluations, IMO. I like stats & all that to a degree, & use them to a degree, but personally, I think they can be especially misleading at times.

First off, a catch is not a meaningful NFL statistic. If you get 4 catches, you don't get a new set of downs. If you get 10 catches, you don't put any points up on the scoreboard (NFL, not fantasy). A guy who had 80 catches for 80 yards had a SIGNIFICANTLY worse day than a guy who had 8 catches for 80 yards. In fact, a catch is to some extent a negative statistic, since it represents the usage of a down (a limited commodity), although the positive statistics (i.e. yards and TDs) that generally accompany that catch usually outweigh the negative value. Still, if a guy ever had 40 catches for 40 yards, I would guarantee you that his team LOST THE GAME because those 40 catches provided such an obscene amount of negative value. He basically monopolized 40 offensive downs, and only produced 40 yards to show for it. You're conflating "fantasy value" with "NFL value", and a target or a catch is NOT a valuable NFL statistic in and of itself. Its only value is that it represents an opportunity to generate actual positive statistics- yards, first downs, and touchdowns- but it should not be automatically rewarded independent of whether it actually succeeded in producing those statistics or not.Second off, "points per touch in a PPR league" doesn't reward RBs who catch a lot of passes... it rewards RBs who catch a lot of passes *OR* RBs who get very few carries. Any metric that rewards RBs for getting fewer carries is not, as you claim, a metric that rewards workhorses. Case in point: the all time greatest season in "PPR Point Per Touch" history is... Larry Centers, 1995. Tomlinson's 31 TD season scored 1.20 points per touch, but Centers absolutely blew that out of the water by scoring 1.38 fantasy points per touch in 1995. There's something flawed with any metric that suggests that Larry Centers turned in the greatest RB season of all time by a huge margin.If you want to use Points Per Touch, then use standard scoring Points Per Touch... although that's still not a great metric, because receptions are naturally more valuable than rushes because even a crappy yard per reception average blows even a fantastic yard per rush average out of the water. A better metric still would be Points Per Carry+Target. And none of that PPR stuff, because as I said, that conflates fantasy value with actual NFL production, since the catch is not in and of itself a meaningful NFL statistic.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

While I disagree with this entire statement as a whole, the part in bold is ESPECIALLY misleading, so let's deal with that first. Even more than just stats, the "eye test" is where Forte fails the most. When you watch him play, you simply do not see ANYTHING that would lead you to believe he is anything more than marginally above average. While he does possess a great opportunity in that he sees every down work, let's briefly dissect all of the things he does not possess:- He has absolutely no burst. while he may have a putrid OL, he does not hit what few holes there are with any kind of authority. Referencing the "eye test" again, he simply looks like he runs with weights attached to his ankles

Terrible exaggeration here. When you're met at or behind the line of scrimmage on most touches, you won't appear to have much burst.

- He has average vision at best. People keep referencing his great vision as an asset, but I just don't agree. As someone who was a Forte owner and closely watched EVERY game he played last season and this season to determine if I should hold or trade him, trust me when I say he misses holes, fails to bounce plays outside when he should, has no concept of when to cut back or change direction, and generally costs himself yards by missing better angles of attack- He lacks top end speed. I believe someone in this thread said that he has a 2nd gear to bust long ones...ummmm, what? He is far, far more likely to get caught from behind after he gets to the second level than to take it to the house. Back to what I said earlier, he appears to run with ankles around his weights, and the speed at which defenders close on him in space is shocking

More hyperbole - "no concept of when to cut back" "runs with weights around his ankles" ? Did you miss the Detroit game earlier this season? What about the Indy game last year? Forte has a second gear (not a breakaway fifth, but for sure another gear he can shift into), and he has definitely created extra yardage with his vision regularly.

- He absolutely, positively can not fight through contact. This is clearly the single biggest thing that has been exposed during this season. Sure, his offensive line has played poorly and have certainly contributed to his sagging numbers. However, ANY running back worth his salt would still be capable of producing SOMETHING out of the bad situation. The truth is, Forte can't because he goes down at first contact almost EVERY time. There have been countless times where a small hole has been open, Forte hits it, and rather than fight through an arm tackle or break first contact by a waiting linebacker to reach the 2nd level, he simply goes down. This is the true reason his YPC are so dismal. It's not purely the offensive line (although it is a factor), it is not Cutler's struggles, nor is it the play calling. It is Forte's inability to turn 2-3 yard gains into 6+ yard gains by fighting through initial contact, something ANY elite running back is able to do (and a big sign that Forte is nowhere close to elite or among the top 12-15 running backs in the league).- Last, he is not a "weapon" in ANY facet of the game. I think it is pretty clear he isn't a weapon as a runner, as most have already alluded to and even Forte backers have somewhat conceded. However, those that support Forte continually say he makes up for that by being a "weapon" in the passing game. Really? I guess we have a differing opinion of what a weapon is then. If you simply mean that he is available for check downs, RARELY runs deep routes, and typically catches the check down and gains minimal yardage, then yes, I suppose by that definition he is a "weapon". However, I see a "weapon" as someone who can actually make a difference with his touches. Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Gore, Sproles, etc... (trust me, I could go on) are pass catching "weapons" out of the backfield. They don't just catch dump offs when a QB is at the end of his progression (watch any of them play and you will see them run actual routes downfield and have the ball thrown to them from time to time, something Forte rarely, if ever, does), but even more importantly, when they do receive dump offs, THEY DO SOMETHING WITH IT. They don't simply run 2-5 yards downfield and go down, frequently prompting a punt. These "weapons" actually make someone miss or fight through contact and pick up difference making yardage.

Are we watching the same guy? Forte has done a great job keeping his legs churning and otherwise showing a lot of fight for yards when nothing is there. He has made tacklers miss in the open field, just as a "weapon" is supposed to. I think you might have been mistaking Clinton Portis for Matt Forte. The second, third, and fourth letters of their last names are the same after all.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Folks, there is a happy middle ground between "Forte is a future hall of famer" and "Forte is a piece of crap that isn't even a starting quality NFL RB".

 

[corpcow]

One of Forte's strengths is he excels at all aspects of playing the RB position. All the core skills. That's one reason I like him to stick around for a long time. I also like to remind people we play FF. I see people who say Forte only does well in PPR leagues because he catches dumpoffs. Well, that's kinda the point. Forte is one of the best pass-catchers in the league at the RB position. That means he's going to get more receptions than someone who's a mediocre pass-catcher. And he doesn't come out on passing down because he's a very good blocker. People are going to be surprised when they fix the OL because he has the skills to take advantage of a decent line. Like Bloom alluded to, he's got no chance on many of his runs. I get the feeling some people see the low YPC & believe he's a stiff. That couldn't be farther from the truth, IMO. Anyway, this won't be settled for awhile, but I do like Forte to rebound in 2010. Hopefully, the OL will be better & Cutler will settle down a little bit. Right now, the Bears are my pick for the offense most likely to have the biggest difference in production from 2009 to 2010. We'll see.

As EBF said, "Matt Forte will be a top 10 pick in almost every dynasty draft this offseason". The problem is that most looked at his RB4 (or possibly higher in PPR) finish and said, well, here's a rookie RB who will only get better. He was being treated as (and valued like) an elite young RB because he had elite numbers, but if you look behind the numbers you'd realize that they were average and perhaps unsustainable. I've said it before and I'll say it again - I think his rookie year was at or near his peak. In the long run, teams that sold him last offseason (I did in one league for CJ3 + throwins) are the ones who will make out. I think this thread has taken a different direction in part because everyone is starting to realize that he isn't a top 3-5 overall RB. We said he was "overvalued" at RB4 or maybe even RB8-10, but now we're thinking about that label as it pertains to his current value which I would say is less than that.

 

[SSOG]

Folks, there is a happy middle ground between "Forte is a future hall of famer" and "Forte is a piece of crap that isn't even a starting quality NFL RB".

Out of curiousity, which NFL RBs do you think are better than Forte, and which do you think he's better than? Where would you rank him?

 

[Herm23]

-Terrible exaggeration here. When you're met at or behind the line of scrimmage on most touches, you won't appear to have much burst.

The burst comment was not directed at those plays in which he gets hit 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage- I will concede that no amount of burst can save you in such situations. I was referencing those plays which had an open hole and he was unable to hit it fast enough (or with enough burst, as it were) to make a meaningful gain out of it and instead had to settle for his usual 2-4 yard run.

-More hyperbole - "no concept of when to cut back" "runs with weights around his ankles" ? Did you miss the Detroit game earlier this season? What about the Indy game last year? Forte has a second gear (not a breakaway fifth, but for sure another gear he can shift into), and he has definitely created extra yardage with his vision regularly.

No, I did not miss the Detroit game or Indy game- my point was not that he will NEVER break a long run (even a blind squirrel finds a nut...or in this case, sometimes defenses guess wrong, pass blitz, don't fill all the gaps, and ANY running back is free to romp through all the open space). However, while watching the Detroit game, did you notice the 50+ yard run in which HE WAS CAUGHT FROM BEHIND? Have you seen the countless runs in which he got through the initial wave of defenders and was caught or limited to less than stellar gains simply because he does not, in fact, possess that additional gear that is needed? Additionally, the problem with Forte and his vision is that he leaves FAR too many yards on the table. He absolutely, positively does miss open holes (or chooses the wrong ones) misses cutback lanes, and certainly does not seem to have a real grasp on when to bounce plays outside. Does this mean he has no vision at all? Of course not- a starting running back in the NFL is EXPECTED to have it and use it to aid them. That being said, when compared to most other starting running backs in the NFL, Forte's vision is sub-standard.

-Are we watching the same guy? Forte has done a great job keeping his legs churning and otherwise showing a lot of fight for yards when nothing is there. He has made tacklers miss in the open field, just as a "weapon" is supposed to. I think you might have been mistaking Clinton Portis for Matt Forte. The second, third, and fourth letters of their last names are the same after all.

I fear that you are the one watching the "mythical" version of Forte. Does he do well when in open space? Yes- he is able to turn quickly and begin picking up positive yards and frequently runs north/south. The problem begins when a defender enters the picture, as he does not possess the speed to prevent them from closing quickly, absolutely does not keep his legs churning (reference repeated failures in the redzone this season), and absolutely, positively does not possess enough moves or shake to make defenders miss. To say he does simply indicates you do not watch him play or are a Forte owner desperately hoping he turns it around.

 

[Herm23]

Folks, there is a happy middle ground between "Forte is a future hall of famer" and "Forte is a piece of crap that isn't even a starting quality NFL RB".

Out of curiousity, which NFL RBs do you think are better than Forte, and which do you think he's better than? Where would you rank him?

I know this was not directed at me, but as someone who made the decision to trade Forte in a league earlier this season, I went through this exact process. Basing things purely off skill and giving no consideration to situation (I believe situation is a bit too dependent on specific teams and coaching staff philosophies and in almost all situations, talent trumps situation in the long run), this is what I came up with:ADMJDSteven JacksonChris JohnsonFrank GoreDwillJonathan StewartRonnie BrownRay RiceBrian WestbrookCedric BensonMichael TurnerBeanie WellsRashard MendenhallPierre ThomasRicky WilliamsMarion BarberFelix JonesBrandon JacobsWhen I traded Forte, I believed all 19 of those players were absolutely better talents and possessed more skills (and still do today, many weeks later, with the possible exception of Westbrook). Some were listed based on the "eye test" that showed elite talent despite a short track record, which is why players such as Moreno, Thomas Jones, and Slayton were not included (to me, they do not pass the "eye test" at this time...even Thomas Jones, who despite fairly gaudy numbers has not looked substantially more impressive than Forte in my eyes). In my opinion, these 19 players represent either the elite or the close to elite class of running backs in the NFL talent-wise. After those 19, at least to me, it gets difficult to distinguish and I believe a strong argument can be made that Forte belongs at number 20 on that list. However, I believe an equally strong case can be made that he belongs after the following players as well:Thomas JonesReggie BushKnowshon MorenoLadanian TomlinsonJoseph AddaiSteve SlaytonDarren McFaddenLaurence MaroneyDarren SprolesThis means that in a best case scenario, I feel he is the 20th most talented running back in the NFL, while depending on your views of certain players and your perspective, it is possible he could be ranked as low as 30 (if you feel all of the players from the 2nd list are better). That is a pretty grim outlook for a starter- when your best case scenario has you as the 20th best talent at your position (when there are typically only 32 starting spots plus maybe another 8 backup roles that get substantial carries), I think that is a giant red flag that you are in danger of losing your job. When one of those elite or close to elite players who is currently backing up an even better talent becomes available via free agency, and you aren't even ranking in the top half of the 32 "starter" quality talents, you become an immediate target to be replaced (part of why I feel situation is less important than talent, as superior talent can ruin a great situation for a more mediocre player by taking his starting job). As to who I feel Forte is clearly better than, no questions asked? The list is fairly short (I left out backups, because if I haven't listed a backup in the above 2 lists, I think it is pretty clear that they are not starting running back material at this point in time in my eyes, which is why players such as Shonn Green, Donald Brown, etc... are absent. I am conceding that right now, Forte is better than that group of players): Kevin SmithRyan GrantCadillac WilliamsJulius Jones Jamal Charles/Larry JohnsonJamal LewisMarshawn LynchClinton Portis

 

[CentralPA]

-Terrible exaggeration here. When you're met at or behind the line of scrimmage on most touches, you won't appear to have much burst.

The burst comment was not directed at those plays in which he gets hit 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage- I will concede that no amount of burst can save you in such situations. I was referencing those plays which had an open hole and he was unable to hit it fast enough (or with enough burst, as it were) to make a meaningful gain out of it and instead had to settle for his usual 2-4 yard run.

-More hyperbole - "no concept of when to cut back" "runs with weights around his ankles" ? Did you miss the Detroit game earlier this season? What about the Indy game last year? Forte has a second gear (not a breakaway fifth, but for sure another gear he can shift into), and he has definitely created extra yardage with his vision regularly.

No, I did not miss the Detroit game or Indy game- my point was not that he will NEVER break a long run (even a blind squirrel finds a nut...or in this case, sometimes defenses guess wrong, pass blitz, don't fill all the gaps, and ANY running back is free to romp through all the open space). However, while watching the Detroit game, did you notice the 50+ yard run in which HE WAS CAUGHT FROM BEHIND? Have you seen the countless runs in which he got through the initial wave of defenders and was caught or limited to less than stellar gains simply because he does not, in fact, possess that additional gear that is needed? Additionally, the problem with Forte and his vision is that he leaves FAR too many yards on the table. He absolutely, positively does miss open holes (or chooses the wrong ones) misses cutback lanes, and certainly does not seem to have a real grasp on when to bounce plays outside. Does this mean he has no vision at all? Of course not- a starting running back in the NFL is EXPECTED to have it and use it to aid them. That being said, when compared to most other starting running backs in the NFL, Forte's vision is sub-standard.

-Are we watching the same guy? Forte has done a great job keeping his legs churning and otherwise showing a lot of fight for yards when nothing is there. He has made tacklers miss in the open field, just as a "weapon" is supposed to. I think you might have been mistaking Clinton Portis for Matt Forte. The second, third, and fourth letters of their last names are the same after all.

I fear that you are the one watching the "mythical" version of Forte. Does he do well when in open space? Yes- he is able to turn quickly and begin picking up positive yards and frequently runs north/south. The problem begins when a defender enters the picture, as he does not possess the speed to prevent them from closing quickly, absolutely does not keep his legs churning (reference repeated failures in the redzone this season), and absolutely, positively does not possess enough moves or shake to make defenders miss. To say he does simply indicates you do not watch him play or are a Forte owner desperately hoping he turns it around.

Both you and Bloom make very good cases for how good Forte is or isn't. I agree that I don't see the 2nd gear everyone is talking about, Forte (when he does break through the LOS) and gets into the open field usually does not take it to the house, a speedy secondary guy can usually catch up to him so you'd rarely see him score an 80+ yard TD. I do think his pass catching abilities make him very valuable either in a non-ppr or especially in a ppr league. The guy can make things happen when he is given some space. As far as running ability between the tackles, some of it is him, some of it is his horrendous offensive line, I think he becomes a top 12-15 RB when his line gets better but right now he's just on the outside.

 

[thevidon]

-Terrible exaggeration here. When you're met at or behind the line of scrimmage on most touches, you won't appear to have much burst.

The burst comment was not directed at those plays in which he gets hit 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage- I will concede that no amount of burst can save you in such situations. I was referencing those plays which had an open hole and he was unable to hit it fast enough (or with enough burst, as it were) to make a meaningful gain out of it and instead had to settle for his usual 2-4 yard run.

-More hyperbole - "no concept of when to cut back" "runs with weights around his ankles" ? Did you miss the Detroit game earlier this season? What about the Indy game last year? Forte has a second gear (not a breakaway fifth, but for sure another gear he can shift into), and he has definitely created extra yardage with his vision regularly.

No, I did not miss the Detroit game or Indy game- my point was not that he will NEVER break a long run (even a blind squirrel finds a nut...or in this case, sometimes defenses guess wrong, pass blitz, don't fill all the gaps, and ANY running back is free to romp through all the open space). However, while watching the Detroit game, did you notice the 50+ yard run in which HE WAS CAUGHT FROM BEHIND? Have you seen the countless runs in which he got through the initial wave of defenders and was caught or limited to less than stellar gains simply because he does not, in fact, possess that additional gear that is needed? Additionally, the problem with Forte and his vision is that he leaves FAR too many yards on the table. He absolutely, positively does miss open holes (or chooses the wrong ones) misses cutback lanes, and certainly does not seem to have a real grasp on when to bounce plays outside. Does this mean he has no vision at all? Of course not- a starting running back in the NFL is EXPECTED to have it and use it to aid them. That being said, when compared to most other starting running backs in the NFL, Forte's vision is sub-standard.

-Are we watching the same guy? Forte has done a great job keeping his legs churning and otherwise showing a lot of fight for yards when nothing is there. He has made tacklers miss in the open field, just as a "weapon" is supposed to. I think you might have been mistaking Clinton Portis for Matt Forte. The second, third, and fourth letters of their last names are the same after all.

I fear that you are the one watching the "mythical" version of Forte. Does he do well when in open space? Yes- he is able to turn quickly and begin picking up positive yards and frequently runs north/south. The problem begins when a defender enters the picture, as he does not possess the speed to prevent them from closing quickly, absolutely does not keep his legs churning (reference repeated failures in the redzone this season), and absolutely, positively does not possess enough moves or shake to make defenders miss. To say he does simply indicates you do not watch him play or are a Forte owner desperately hoping he turns it around.

Both you and Bloom make very good cases for how good Forte is or isn't. I agree that I don't see the 2nd gear everyone is talking about, Forte (when he does break through the LOS) and gets into the open field usually does not take it to the house, a speedy secondary guy can usually catch up to him so you'd rarely see him score an 80+ yard TD. I do think his pass catching abilities make him very valuable either in a non-ppr or especially in a ppr league. The guy can make things happen when he is given some space. As far as running ability between the tackles, some of it is him, some of it is his horrendous offensive line, I think he becomes a top 12-15 RB when his line gets better but right now he's just on the outside.

Forte is a very very average runner. I have avoided him in all of my leagues like the plague. His numbers were always based on being force fed the ball, and as soon as the Bears manage to pick up a more talented runner he will be unceremoniously dumped. I think Kevin Jones had more talent if he could have just stayed healthy. Even when Forte was coming out of college and I was watching his "highlight" reels I saw nothing to make me excited. He never makes anyone miss, and goes down pretty easily. He does have nice hands, but that is really his only outstanding quality as a player. I put him in the RB 25 range in terms of talent.

 

[corpcow]

Folks, there is a happy middle ground between "Forte is a future hall of famer" and "Forte is a piece of crap that isn't even a starting quality NFL RB".

Absolutely... this thread has spiraled out of control, but that's all EBF and myself and others have been saying from the start - that people who value him like a future hall of famer or elite talent are overvaluing him, and that the numbers are in large part due to unique opportunity which is probably unsustainable.

 

[Herm23]

-Terrible exaggeration here. When you're met at or behind the line of scrimmage on most touches, you won't appear to have much burst.

The burst comment was not directed at those plays in which he gets hit 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage- I will concede that no amount of burst can save you in such situations. I was referencing those plays which had an open hole and he was unable to hit it fast enough (or with enough burst, as it were) to make a meaningful gain out of it and instead had to settle for his usual 2-4 yard run.

-More hyperbole - "no concept of when to cut back" "runs with weights around his ankles" ? Did you miss the Detroit game earlier this season? What about the Indy game last year? Forte has a second gear (not a breakaway fifth, but for sure another gear he can shift into), and he has definitely created extra yardage with his vision regularly.

No, I did not miss the Detroit game or Indy game- my point was not that he will NEVER break a long run (even a blind squirrel finds a nut...or in this case, sometimes defenses guess wrong, pass blitz, don't fill all the gaps, and ANY running back is free to romp through all the open space). However, while watching the Detroit game, did you notice the 50+ yard run in which HE WAS CAUGHT FROM BEHIND? Have you seen the countless runs in which he got through the initial wave of defenders and was caught or limited to less than stellar gains simply because he does not, in fact, possess that additional gear that is needed? Additionally, the problem with Forte and his vision is that he leaves FAR too many yards on the table. He absolutely, positively does miss open holes (or chooses the wrong ones) misses cutback lanes, and certainly does not seem to have a real grasp on when to bounce plays outside. Does this mean he has no vision at all? Of course not- a starting running back in the NFL is EXPECTED to have it and use it to aid them. That being said, when compared to most other starting running backs in the NFL, Forte's vision is sub-standard.

-Are we watching the same guy? Forte has done a great job keeping his legs churning and otherwise showing a lot of fight for yards when nothing is there. He has made tacklers miss in the open field, just as a "weapon" is supposed to. I think you might have been mistaking Clinton Portis for Matt Forte. The second, third, and fourth letters of their last names are the same after all.

I fear that you are the one watching the "mythical" version of Forte. Does he do well when in open space? Yes- he is able to turn quickly and begin picking up positive yards and frequently runs north/south. The problem begins when a defender enters the picture, as he does not possess the speed to prevent them from closing quickly, absolutely does not keep his legs churning (reference repeated failures in the redzone this season), and absolutely, positively does not possess enough moves or shake to make defenders miss. To say he does simply indicates you do not watch him play or are a Forte owner desperately hoping he turns it around.

Both you and Bloom make very good cases for how good Forte is or isn't. I agree that I don't see the 2nd gear everyone is talking about, Forte (when he does break through the LOS) and gets into the open field usually does not take it to the house, a speedy secondary guy can usually catch up to him so you'd rarely see him score an 80+ yard TD. I do think his pass catching abilities make him very valuable either in a non-ppr or especially in a ppr league. The guy can make things happen when he is given some space. As far as running ability between the tackles, some of it is him, some of it is his horrendous offensive line, I think he becomes a top 12-15 RB when his line gets better but right now he's just on the outside.

My comments were exclusively directed at actual NFL talent. While I do agree that Forte is a fairly solid option in PPR fantasy league formats (at least for the time being), I think that can be misleading as it relates to his actual pass catching ability from an NFL skill standpoint. As I said before, while he does catch a fair amount of balls, the problem is he doesn't do much with them and they are almost always short check downs. If he doesn't catch it in wide open space (and he rarely does, because his routes typically don't go further than 5-10 yards downfield), he simply doesn't make anything happen and usually ends up with minimal gains (before anyone jumps in and says "But what about X game when he busted loose for Y gain!?", I'm not saying he NEVER does anything, I'm just saying the normal result is mediocrity). When he does catch the ball in open space (reference the 49ers game last Thursday), he is able to make some decent gains because of his propensity to not dance around and begin picking up yardage right away. However, once defenders enter the picture, Forte is unable to do anything special to maximize those gains and is usually quickly brought down.A great pass catching running back needs to be able to do 2 things to be considered "great" in my eyes: make the first defender consistently miss when the open space has been closed, and be capable of lining up and running routes downfield while having his team trust his pass catching ability enough to throw it to him on those routes. Forte does neither of those- he relies on end of progression dump-offs or screens for almost all of his catches, and rarely does anything once the open space of those dump-offs has been closed by defenders. From a PPR fantasy standpoint, catching dump-offs almost exclusively can be gold and make him look like a great pass catcher, but in real NFL skill terms...not so much.

 

[Herm23]

Folks, there is a happy middle ground between "Forte is a future hall of famer" and "Forte is a piece of crap that isn't even a starting quality NFL RB".

Absolutely... this thread has spiraled out of control, but that's all EBF and myself and others have been saying from the start - that people who value him like a future hall of famer or elite talent are overvaluing him, and that the numbers are in large part due to unique opportunity which is probably unsustainable.

I don't necessarily agree that it has spiraled too out of control, as some fairly meaningful discussion can be had from this. SSOG asked a question that more should answer, as it will provide some interesting insight- not from a fantasy standpoint, but from an NFL skill standpoint, where do you rank Forte in the hierarchy of running backs? It would be interesting to see where those who support him as a starting NFL running back for many years to come would rank him and why.

 

[switz]

There's a reason Adrian Peterson (MIN), though not a great pass catcher, is considered one of the best RBs, while Kevin Faulk, a great pass catcher is not. It's all about running the ball.

Apparently you never heard of Marshall Faulk, Brian Westbrook or Tiki Baber.

They were good runners. I don't get your point.

 

[switz]

Additionally, lat time I checked, Forte was an RB - his job is to RUN the ball, something he's not very good at.

Apparently when talking about Addai, it's OK to consider receptions as an indicator:

In regard to the whole body of work... Addai has had more 10 yard+ runs than Brown. Addai has more TDs than Brown per touch. Addai has a higher YPC in most situations than Brown. Addai has more receptions than Brown. Addai is healthier than Brown. Addai has fewer runs of no gain or negative yardage, despite having more carries.

Whole body of work easily goes in Addai's direction.

You're basing your entire opinion of Brown off 1 or 2 plays, NOT his entire body of work.

Nice work switz, continually adding to your great posts.

Being a good receiving back is a bonus. If you are not a good runner, you aren't going to keep the starting job based on being a good receiver. Just look at Kevin Faulk, Reggie Bush, etc.Your attempt to pull my Addai quote into this is ludicrous. I wasn't basing my entire argument for Addai on the fact he is a better receiver than Brown. FJ is basing his entire argument that Forte is good on the fact he's a good receiver. Sorry, those two are not equal at all.

 

[EBF]

People have said most of the things I wanted to say. I realize that the Chicago offense is a toxic situation, but I don't think it excuses Forte's pitiful performance. As of today there are 36 RBs in the NFL with 100+ carries on the season. Look where Forte ranks in yards per carry:

Chris Johnson 6.4

Pierre Thomas 5.6

DeAngelo Williams 5.4

Frank Gore 5.4

Ricky Williams 5.3

Rashard Mendenhall 5.1

Michael Turner 5.0

Ray Rice 5.0

Adrian Peterson 4.9

Maurice Jones-Drew 4.8

Steven Jackson 4.8

Ahmad Bradshaw 4.8

Marion Barber 4.7

Beanie Wells 4.7

Thomas Jones 4.6

Jonathan Stewart 4.6

Mike Bell 4.5

Ronnie Brown 4.4

Ryan Grant 4.4

LeSean McCoy 4.3

Cedric Benson 4.2

Knowshon Moreno 4.2

Tim Hightower 4.2

Fred Jackson 4.1

Brandon Jacobs 4.0

Clinton Portis 4.0

Laurence Maroney 3.9

Carnell Williams 3.8

Julius Jones 3.7

Kevin Smith 3.5

Joseph Addai 3.5

Jamal Lewis 3.5

LaDainian Tomlinson 3.4

Matt Forte 3.3

Steve Slaton 3.1

Larry Johnson 2.9

IMO this list from top to bottom provides a surprisingly accurate gradient of RB talent. The guys at the top are almost all elite talents. The guys at the bottom are almost all scrubs, has-beens, and never-weres. Forte is sandwiched between two players who are clearly past their prime and two who have just lost their job security. Not exactly good company.

Can you really blame this on the situation? I don't think so. Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Ricky Williams, and Steven Jackson are all playing on weak offenses that rival the Bears in overall ineptitude, yet somehow these four backs have managed to log exceptional yards per carry averages. Why? Because these guys can excel regardless of their supporting cast. That's the definition of elite talent. As a Bay Area resident I have seen Frank Gore get it done year in and year out with almost zero help from his team. Why can't Forte do the same?

Out of the 36 NFL RBs on the above list, 34 of them do more with every carry than Matt Forte. That's a pretty staggering statistic. I agree with previous posters who estimated that Forte is somewhere between the 20th-30th best RB in the NFL. It would be nearly impossible to make a credible case for him as an above average starter. By all appearances he ranks anywhere from below average to average. And it's not like this is a one year phenomenon. His 2008 YPC of 3.9 would still rank in the bottom third of the above list.

At some point you have to stop making excuses and start considering the easiest solution: Forte simply isn't a very good runner.

 

[Football Jones]

No matter how many times you say it, people overlook the FF impact of a guy like Forte. Another thing I find interesting is the misconception people have about Forte getting replaced. It's just not going to happen.

All it'll take for Forte to be a top-notch FF RB (again) is improvement in their OL. Chicago has the skill players to succeed as an offense, & Forte most definitely has the talent to turn his situation into FF success.

The 3.3 or whatever he has right now is a joke. I can't fathom people actually believing he won't improve on that significantly when you watch him with your eyes. He was at about 3.9 last year with a terrible OL. He's got an even worse OL this season & other dynamics are causing his YPC to plummet. Forget the YPC right now. That would be my best advice.

Anyway, the great debate continues, LOL. It kinda reminds me of the debate about Chris Johnson, but for different reasons.

 

[Football Jones]

BTW, we've gone over this so much I don't think either side is learning anything new, but take the YPC thing for instance. You got Ryan Grant & his 4.4. Grant couldn't hold Forte's jock. There's a good example of what judging RBs based on YPC can do for you. Pierre Thomas & his 5.6? You really believe he's a 5.6 runner in the real world? Thomas is a part time back who gets plays especially ran for him (many times, anyway) & is on a great offense. That said, give me Forte every day of the week & twice on Sunday going forward.

Those are just 2 examples, but you get my point. Anyway, if nothing else, this issue has brought up some good banter, LOL.

EDIT: Actually, this is getting old. I think I'm going to spend some time on some other FF stuff & revisit this later.

 

[Instinctive]

Kevin Smith

Ryan Grant

Cadillac Williams

Julius Jones

Jamal Charles/Larry Johnson

Jamal Lewis

Marshawn Lynch

Clinton Portis

I mostly agree with this, but how can Ryan Grant be below Forte? He has burst, a second gear, busts big runs when he actually has a hole...Grant's run blocking is almost as bad as Chicago's (I would say definitely bottom 10, maybe bottom 5, probably about 7) and he has a significantly better yards per carry, with IIRC more carries...hmm...

I know I am usually a bit higher on Grant than most, although my "Grant in 3rd over Brown" will probably now pay off due to injury, but come on. He's definitely above Forte, and actually a pretty good pass catcher when Mr. Rodgers actually decides to go for a checkdown over a facefull of turf.

I'd also like to put in Ahmad Bradshaw, as I know you said no backups..........but he's more of a partner and also a much better runner than Forte (with a broken foot) as he hits holes with more burst, has higher gears, and also breaks more tackles.

 

[Instinctive]

BTW, we've gone over this so much I don't think either side is learning anything new, but take the YPC thing for instance. You got Ryan Grant & his 4.4. Grant couldn't hold Forte's jock. There's a good example of what judging RBs based on YPC can do for you. Pierre Thomas & his 5.6? You really believe he's a 5.6 runner in the real world? Thomas is a part time back who gets plays especially ran for him (many times, anyway) & is on a great offense. That said, give me Forte every day of the week & twice on Sunday going forward.

Those are just 2 examples, but you get my point. Anyway, if nothing else, this issue has brought up some good banter, LOL.

Seriously? That guy who, since becoming a starter, has consistently been on pace for over 1000 yards on a team with a run blocking unit almost as bad as the Bears? A guy who has to avoid hits in the backfield almost as often...and actually does this thing where he breaks a tackle or goes around a guy? That guy who has some downhill speed to bust long runs? That guy can't hold the jock of "I like to fumble on the goalline get caught from behind lack any semblance of a stiff arm and go down on contact more often than not" Forte?

 

[SSOG]

No matter how many times you say it, people overlook the FF impact of a guy like Forte. Another thing I find interesting is the misconception people have about Forte getting replaced. It's just not going to happen.All it'll take for Forte to be a top-notch FF RB (again) is improvement in their OL. Chicago has the skill players to succeed as an offense, & Forte most definitely has the talent to turn his situation into FF success.The 3.3 or whatever he has right now is a joke. I can't fathom people actually believing he won't improve on that significantly when you watch him with your eyes. He was at about 3.9 last year with a terrible OL. He's got an even worse OL this season & other dynamics are causing his YPC to plummet. Forget the YPC right now. That would be my best advice.Anyway, the great debate continues, LOL. It kinda reminds me of the debate about Chris Johnson, but for different reasons.

This offseason, everyone was saying that his ypc was guaranteed to go up with Cutler forcing safeties back.

 

[EBF]

I don't think anyone doubts that situation and usage can have a minor impact on a player's YPC. Certainly guys like Pierre Thomas and Ryan Grant benefit from playing on potent offenses and players like Felix Jones and Ahmad Bradshaw benefit from their situational usage.

That doesn't mean YPC is irrelevant. It's a pretty good indicator of a player's effectiveness. I think most would agree that the list I posted above is a pretty accurate scale of quality. Most of the guys at the top are great. Most of the guys at the bottom are bad.

The Forte supporters haven't been able to provide a compelling argument to explain why he has struggled while other RBs in poor situations have thrived (Gore, CJ, Jackson, etc). That might be because there is no compelling argument aside from the obvious: Forte can't transcend his weak supporting cast because he lacks elite talent.

At this point the Forte supporters are grasping at straws. He hasn't played well. He hasn't looked good. He doesn't appear to have a special skill set. There's literally no evidence to support the claim that he's an above average NFL RB. You can insist that your eyes tell you he's a great back. He might ultimately prove you right, but don't expect anyone to agree with you in the meantime. He appears to be exactly what I said he is: a mediocre RB who capitalized on a massive amount of touches.

 

[corpcow]

No matter how many times you say it, people overlook the FF impact of a guy like Forte. Another thing I find interesting is the misconception people have about Forte getting replaced. It's just not going to happen.

That has to be one of the silliest things I've ever heard. People are overlooking the FF impact of a guy like Forte? Quite the opposite... the whole thread was started because some of us felt that Forte's FF impact was being given too much value.

Anyway, the great debate continues, LOL. It kinda reminds me of the debate about Chris Johnson, but for different reasons.

What's the "different reason"? That CJ3 is an elite talent and Forte is not? Seriously... don't even start to say that CJ3's production is just the result of his line & offense. CJ3 has produced even when the offense has done NOTHING... (1/10 and NEGATIVE passing yardage and CJ still has 100+ yards?). Lendale isn't doing #### behind that line this year either. Do you honestly think CJ3 would be averaging 3.2 YPC if he was on Chicago?

 

[Football Jones]

No matter how many times you say it, people overlook the FF impact of a guy like Forte. Another thing I find interesting is the misconception people have about Forte getting replaced. It's just not going to happen.

That has to be one of the silliest things I've ever heard. People are overlooking the FF impact of a guy like Forte? Quite the opposite... the whole thread was started because some of us felt that Forte's FF impact was being given too much value.

Anyway, the great debate continues, LOL. It kinda reminds me of the debate about Chris Johnson, but for different reasons.

What's the "different reason"? That CJ3 is an elite talent and Forte is not? Seriously... don't even start to say that CJ3's production is just the result of his line & offense. CJ3 has produced even when the offense has done NOTHING... (1/10 and NEGATIVE passing yardage and CJ still has 100+ yards?). Lendale isn't doing #### behind that line this year either. Do you honestly think CJ3 would be averaging 3.2 YPC if he was on Chicago?

Huh? You got it wrong, bro. I was one of the relatively few FFers who thought CJ could flourish in the NFL. I'm still high on him. I said that because their situations are similar because my opinions result from evaluating players mostly with my eyes, not the stats, their size, YPC, etc. That was my point.

 

[Football Jones]

BTW, I wanted to answer your other question, but one more thing. Forte is RB12 now. He's proven to be worth a 1st round pick at this point.

I guess I just don't get it. The guy is a FF machine with absolutely in no danger of getting replaced. Waiting for him to get replaced is like holding onto a wet straw.

If Forte can finish in the top-12 this season (& I'm not saying he can with all his support issues), imagine what he can do when they improve their OL, Cutler gets acclimated, & the WRs get more experience?

He's one of the few RBs who have the ability to be worth a 1st round pick every year. That's why I like him so much. That's what the Forte backers don't get. I could see if he was languishing at RB25/30. You might have a point, but the guy is RB12, LOL.

You said you devalue his FF ability, but that's exactly what his strength is. Anyway, we agree to disagree. That's about all I can say.

 

[corpcow]

What's the "different reason"? That CJ3 is an elite talent and Forte is not? Seriously... don't even start to say that CJ3's production is just the result of his line & offense. CJ3 has produced even when the offense has done NOTHING... (1/10 and NEGATIVE passing yardage and CJ still has 100+ yards?). Lendale isn't doing #### behind that line this year either. Do you honestly think CJ3 would be averaging 3.2 YPC if he was on Chicago?

Huh? You got it wrong, bro. I was one of the relatively few FFers who thought CJ could flourish in the NFL. I'm still high on him. I said that because their situations are similar because my opinions result from evaluating players mostly with my eyes, not the stats, their size, YPC, etc. That was my point.

I've been extremely bullish on CJ3 from the start.... I was one of the people leading the bandwagon on that thread. The bandwagon got pretty big last year.... In that case, I'm still not sure I understand your analogy to that situation. This thread started because Forte finished as RB4 last year and people were treating him as an elite, top 3 young RB to build around. EBF, myself and other naysayers were saying, "Not so fast! Before you consider him a top 5 overall guy, consider how his numbers were largely the result of a unique opportunity". Even this year, he's getting a unique opportunity. Especially with Wolfe and Jones both on IR, there's simply no one to compete for carries. There is NO ONE competing for carries on the roster. Forte is currently getting 83% of the rush attempts (and the same % of pass targets). To put that in perspective, that's more than 10% greater share than Adrian Peterson and CJ who are obviously both doing MUCH more with their carries. Given that he's not particularly effective with those carries, it's dangerous to expect that kind of load to continue indefinitely. The question isn't whether he gets "replaced", but whether he gives up that lion's share of the work.

 

[switz]

BTW, I wanted to answer your other question, but one more thing. Forte is RB12 now. He's proven to be worth a 1st round pick at this point.

Matt Forte is #16 in my non-PPR league, #13 in my complex-PPR leagueHe's not worth the #4 or #5 overall pick spent on him.

 

[tdmills]

BTW, I wanted to answer your other question, but one more thing. Forte is RB12 now. He's proven to be worth a 1st round pick at this point.

Matt Forte is #16 in my non-PPR league, #13 in my complex-PPR leagueHe's not worth the #4 or #5 overall pick spent on him.

Again switz, he didn't say he was worth the 4th or 5th overall pick. What was Forte's YPC in that lions game....like 2.2 u said Your hatred for Forte really shines through in your comments.

 

[switz]

Even this year, he's getting a unique opportunity. Especially with Wolfe and Jones both on IR, there's simply no one to compete for carries. There is NO ONE competing for carries on the roster. Forte is currently getting 83% of the rush attempts (and the same % of pass targets). To put that in perspective, that's more than 10% greater share than Adrian Peterson and CJ who are obviously both doing MUCH more with their carries.

Given that he's not particularly effective with those carries, it's dangerous to expect that kind of load to continue indefinitely. The question isn't whether he gets "replaced", but whether he gives up that lion's share of the work.

Especially as both those RBs, and now Kahlil Bell were getting worked in to the offense, since Forte just isn't a productive runner. Wolfe and Bell simply looked much better than Forte when playing - if you want to insist on your eyes.

 

[switz]

BTW, I wanted to answer your other question, but one more thing. Forte is RB12 now. He's proven to be worth a 1st round pick at this point.

Matt Forte is #16 in my non-PPR league, #13 in my complex-PPR leagueHe's not worth the #4 or #5 overall pick spent on him.

Again switz, he didn't say he was worth the 4th or 5th overall pick. What was Forte's YPC in that lions game....like 2.2 u said Your hatred for Forte really shines through in your comments.

He said he was worth a first round pick. The first round pick was typically 4th or 5th overall. So while he may be worth the 12th overall pick, he's not worth the 4th or 5th overall pick. What's your issue? Are you still bitter about me schooling you in the Cutler thread?

 

[tdmills]

BTW, I wanted to answer your other question, but one more thing. Forte is RB12 now. He's proven to be worth a 1st round pick at this point.

Matt Forte is #16 in my non-PPR league, #13 in my complex-PPR leagueHe's not worth the #4 or #5 overall pick spent on him.

Again switz, he didn't say he was worth the 4th or 5th overall pick. What was Forte's YPC in that lions game....like 2.2 u said Your hatred for Forte really shines through in your comments.

He said he was worth a first round pick. The first round pick was typically 4th or 5th overall. So while he may be worth the 12th overall pick, he's not worth the 4th or 5th overall pick. What's your issue? Are you still bitter about me schooling you in the Cutler thread?

Then you agree he is worth a first round pick....the 12th overall. Thats my point.My point is how you also stretch the truth.....are you not going to comment on your 2.2 YPC comment on Forte in the lions game?Schooled me in the Cutler thread....child please

 

[switz]

He said he was worth a first round pick. The first round pick was typically 4th or 5th overall. So while he may be worth the 12th overall pick, he's not worth the 4th or 5th overall pick. What's your issue? Are you still bitter about me schooling you in the Cutler thread?

Then you agree he is worth a first round pick....the 12th overall. Thats my point.My point is how you also stretch the truth.....are you not going to comment on your 2.2 YPC comment on Forte in the lions game?

I agree he would be barely worth a first round pick based on his FF production. But saying he was worth a first round pick has to include the context of where he was picked in the first round. And he's not worth where he was picked at 4 or 5.But that's not the point. The point is his FF value is overinflated due to his opportunities which are not going to remain so high, based on his NFL production.I don't recall the 2.2 YPC carry comment, but I'm sure it went something like this... Forte may have ended up with good numbers overall, but it was against DET in the first place, and even they held him to 2.2 YPC for most of the game. Which is both true, and valid. Sure, Forte broke a long run against DET... but it was DET, and on most of his carries he still sucked. Still not sure what your point is. Are you trying to claim he's great because he had a good game against DET?

Schooled me in the Cutler thread....child please

Uh yeah, schooled you. Which is why you stopped replying.

 

[Chunky Soup]

There's a reason Adrian Peterson (MIN), though not a great pass catcher, is considered one of the best RBs, while Kevin Faulk, a great pass catcher is not. It's all about running the ball.

Apparently you never heard of Marshall Faulk, Brian Westbrook or Tiki Baber.

They were good runners. I don't get your point.

So, is it all about running the ball or not? Your inconsistencies are very confusing.

 

[Instinctive]

BTW, I wanted to answer your other question, but one more thing. Forte is RB12 now. He's proven to be worth a 1st round pick at this point.

Matt Forte is #16 in my non-PPR league, #13 in my complex-PPR leagueHe's not worth the #4 or #5 overall pick spent on him.

Again switz, he didn't say he was worth the 4th or 5th overall pick. What was Forte's YPC in that lions game....like 2.2 u said Your hatred for Forte really shines through in your comments.

He said he was worth a first round pick. The first round pick was typically 4th or 5th overall. So while he may be worth the 12th overall pick, he's not worth the 4th or 5th overall pick. What's your issue? Are you still bitter about me schooling you in the Cutler thread?

Then you agree he is worth a first round pick....the 12th overall. Thats my point.My point is how you also stretch the truth.....are you not going to comment on your 2.2 YPC comment on Forte in the lions game?Schooled me in the Cutler thread....child please

12th overall RB..........................NOT EQUAL TO 12th OVERALL PICKIn my PPR league he is the 35th overall player....lots of WRs above him, as well as RBs below who are very close in points scored that came at a much lower price - for instance, Tim Hightower is 1.2 points total behind Forte....and you are claiming that Forte is worth a first rounder in a PPR (where he "excels") when Tim Hightower gives you almost exactly the same production?!?!?!?!?!?!Steve Slaton is one ppg behind. Michael Turner, Ryan Grant, Thomas Jones are all 0.5 ppg behind. He is indeed 12th, but the top 10 have a solid gap between them and the next level fo production - only those top tier guys were worth first rounders. If I could get the same from Tim Hightower, I don't think it was worth a first rounder.In my 0.5 PPR, he's 49th overall. QBs have higher scoring, but the other RBs considered first round worthy are all towards the top. He's the 16th overall RB. In non PPR, he's even lower.None of that says first rounder. (I'd also like to point out that Grant, who can't hold his jock apparently and was a 3rd rounder, not a first, is practically even in a PPR and ahead in a 0.5 PPR, and even more ahead in a non PPR)

 

[tdmills]

Forte is RB 36 right now.

Barely startable as an RB3LOL @ anyone trying to use his game against DET as evidence he's not terrible at running. At one point he was averaging like 2.5 YPC against DET! He had the one long run, but if you watched the game, he looked pretty awful overall.

His first run was 61 yards.....PLEASE tell me how at any point during the game he averaged 2.5 ypc.

His next 10 carries went for 23 yards total... that's 2.3 YPC he was averaging during that stretch

This is your comment.......hahahaha.Arguing with you gets very redundant. Should I remember where I post in this forum and reply to every comment?

 

[Instinctive]

There's a reason Adrian Peterson (MIN), though not a great pass catcher, is considered one of the best RBs, while Kevin Faulk, a great pass catcher is not. It's all about running the ball.

Apparently you never heard of Marshall Faulk, Brian Westbrook or Tiki Baber.

They were good runners. I don't get your point.

So, is it all about running the ball or not? Your inconsistencies are very confusing.

They all ran the ball very well. The catching was just an amazing bonus - Forte has catching as an ok bonus, and sucks at running. All 3 of those guys was a very good runner in his own right. And by runner, i mean a person who is actually running the ball. Despite many inconsistencies among Switz's comments elsewhere, I would say he is dead on with that comment.

 

[tdmills]

Matt Forte is #16 in my non-PPR league, #13 in my complex-PPR leagueHe's not worth the #4 or #5 overall pick spent on him.

Again switz, he didn't say he was worth the 4th or 5th overall pick. What was Forte's YPC in that lions game....like 2.2 u said Your hatred for Forte really shines through in your comments.

He said he was worth a first round pick. The first round pick was typically 4th or 5th overall. So while he may be worth the 12th overall pick, he's not worth the 4th or 5th overall pick. What's your issue? Are you still bitter about me schooling you in the Cutler thread?

Then you agree he is worth a first round pick....the 12th overall. Thats my point.My point is how you also stretch the truth.....are you not going to comment on your 2.2 YPC comment on Forte in the lions game?Schooled me in the Cutler thread....child please

12th overall RB..........................NOT EQUAL TO 12th OVERALL PICKIn my PPR league he is the 35th overall player....lots of WRs above him, as well as RBs below who are very close in points scored that came at a much lower price - for instance, Tim Hightower is 1.2 points total behind Forte....and you are claiming that Forte is worth a first rounder in a PPR (where he "excels") when Tim Hightower gives you almost exactly the same production?!?!?!?!?!?!Steve Slaton is one ppg behind. Michael Turner, Ryan Grant, Thomas Jones are all 0.5 ppg behind. He is indeed 12th, but the top 10 have a solid gap between them and the next level fo production - only those top tier guys were worth first rounders. If I could get the same from Tim Hightower, I don't think it was worth a first rounder.In my 0.5 PPR, he's 49th overall. QBs have higher scoring, but the other RBs considered first round worthy are all towards the top. He's the 16th overall RB. In non PPR, he's even lower.None of that says first rounder. (I'd also like to point out that Grant, who can't hold his jock apparently and was a 3rd rounder, not a first, is practically even in a PPR and ahead in a 0.5 PPR, and even more ahead in a non PPR)

I'm not arguing what Forte is worth......just that Switz twists things in a direction that they weren't directed even when he is wrong.Carry on

 

[Chunky Soup]

Forte is RB 36 right now.

Barely startable as an RB3LOL @ anyone trying to use his game against DET as evidence he's not terrible at running. At one point he was averaging like 2.5 YPC against DET! He had the one long run, but if you watched the game, he looked pretty awful overall.

His first run was 61 yards.....PLEASE tell me how at any point during the game he averaged 2.5 ypc.

His next 10 carries went for 23 yards total... that's 2.3 YPC he was averaging during that stretch

This is your comment.......hahahaha.Arguing with you gets very redundant. Should I remember where I post in this forum and reply to every comment?

Sticky this or something. Gold.

 

[Ghost Rider]

switz always does that. He will trash a player, saying, "he averaged 2.2 YPC," and when called out on it, will say, "Well, if you look at carries 5-9, he ran for 11 yards on those five carries, which is 2.2 YPC, and that is what I meant."

 

[Chunky Soup]

Schooled me in the Cutler thread....child please

Uh yeah, schooled you. Which is why you stopped replying.

You're really trying too hard to compensate for the bad calls of DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones and others. I don't blame you really -- at least for the first two you took a big hit.

 

[switz]

I'm not arguing what Forte is worth......just that Switz twists things in a direction that they weren't directed even when he is wrong.Carry on

and doing a very poor job at it.

 

[Instinctive]

Stop making this about Sitz (I don't much like most of his stuff either) and bring it back to Forte...

Where's the guy who said Grant coudn't hold his jock? Conveniently diappear after that one?

 

[switz]

Schooled me in the Cutler thread....child please

Uh yeah, schooled you. Which is why you stopped replying.

You're really trying too hard to compensate for the bad calls of DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones and others. I don't blame you really -- at least for the first two you took a big hit.

You keep saying I made bad calls about players I didn't make bad calls about. You may want to revisit the ENTIRE thread, and not take things out of context to draw a wrong conclusion.DeAngelo never took the starting job while Foster was with the team, like I said.Chris Johnson was a very good rookie, but didn't rush for 1800 yards his rookie season, and did lose some carries to White, like I said.Felix Jones has been very impressive, when he's been healthy. He's still one of the most talented RBs to come out of that class, like I said.You really need to do more research before trying to put someone down.As for taking a "big hit" I think you are the only one trying to use that as any ammo against me... pathetic IMO. Go back to making your not-so-subtle which QB should I pickup posts.

 

[switz]

Stop making this about Sitz (I don't much like most of his stuff either) and bring it back to Forte...Where's the guy who said Grant coudn't hold his jock? Conveniently diappear after that one?

They can't help it, they never have anything to add, they just come one here trying to make others look bad, in hopes they will look smart. It just doesn't work.

 

[Knobs]

Schooled me in the Cutler thread....child please

Uh yeah, schooled you. Which is why you stopped replying.

You're really trying too hard to compensate for the bad calls of DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones and others. I don't blame you really -- at least for the first two you took a big hit.

You keep saying I made bad calls about players I didn't make bad calls about. You may want to revisit the ENTIRE thread, and not take things out of context to draw a wrong conclusion.DeAngelo never took the starting job while Foster was with the team, like I said.Chris Johnson was a very good rookie, but didn't rush for 1800 yards his rookie season, and did lose some carries to White, like I said.Felix Jones has been very impressive, when he's been healthy. He's still one of the most talented RBs to come out of that class, like I said.You really need to do more research before trying to put someone down.As for taking a "big hit" I think you are the only one trying to use that as any ammo against me... pathetic IMO. Go back to making your not-so-subtle which QB should I pickup posts.

You certainly said those things about those guys but that's not all you said. You made some bad calls - it happens to all of us not named LHUCKS. Don't try pretending you didn't - just admit it and move on.

 

[tdmills]

I'm not arguing what Forte is worth......just that Switz twists things in a direction that they weren't directed even when he is wrong.Carry on

and doing a very poor job at it.

Again, look at all of the responses(with other members).....see if they correlate to your emoticons....they don't....child please.

 

[tdmills]

Stop making this about Sitz (I don't much like most of his stuff either) and bring it back to Forte...Where's the guy who said Grant coudn't hold his jock? Conveniently diappear after that one?

You want this to stop being about Switz.....yet you continually try to make it about Ryan Grant???

 

[todisco1]

...anyway.

Matt Forte. I've seen him several times. Seems like a pretty decent RB. Nothing special, but can get the job done. In dynasty I always target talent, so he's not someone I'd really look to acquire. I don't see him losing his job in the next year or two simply because Chicago has a lot of needs and lack a 1st rounder next year. But I do think he lacks elite talent.