[DYNASTY] The 2013 Buy/Sell List (1 Viewer)

[biju]

I'll throw a few in the ring for discussion...

Buying

Percy Harvin - His value is low due to two years in a row of injury. It's possible I get stuck as the bag-holder for a constantly injured player, however his price is at its lowest right now. Actually, I might wait a week since new news just came out that he's doing well in his recovery.

Josh Gordon - Again, suspended and his price has been lowered. Actually, you've already missed the opportunity to buy at the lowest--that would have been when he was suspended. I think a good preseason has brought most folks back to reality that it's only two games. Still, some owners are concerned about the next "strike" and suspension.

Waiting

Christine Michael - As someone mentioned earlier, now isn't the time to actually try buying Christine Michael. You need to get further away from preseason and more into the season because his total touches are going to be less than Robert Turbin in the first half of the year. I'd say wait until about week 6 or so and then start feeling out the other owner for price.

Selling

Shane Vereen - It's possible I'll miss the boat, but his value is as high as it's ever been. I'll let someone else carry the burden of trying to figure out if he'll be in NE's gameplan this week or lay an egg.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'll cut against the grain with a few:

SELL

Trent Richardson -- Yes, there's alot to like here, but IMO people are totally ignoring the very real downside here -- namely that he ends up being the non-dynamic guy we saw last year. Someone (probably five+ someones) in every league thinks he's the slam dunk #1 player overall, and I think it would be a smart move to throw him out there to start a bidding war and see what type of king's ransom he would bring. Don't dump him obviously, but if you can get an AJ, Dez, Martin, McCoy type cornerstone ++ I'd be strongly considering it.

David Wilson -- I actually like Wilson, but the hype train is out of control here particularly after the Brown injury, which is actually pretty irrelevant to his long term value. There are people that see him as a top 5, even THE #1 RB moving forward -- if one of those dudes is in your league and will pay for the upside, I'd cash out.

Lamar Miller -- Another guy who has a group of true believers that are ignoring the downside. He went as the main component in an AJ Green deal in a solid league I'm in. He's been acquired for guys like CJ Spiller in the dynasty trade thread, and no one batted an eye. That's absurd for a 4th round RB in a bad situation who couldn't beat out a scrub like Daniel Thomas last year.

BUY

Percy Harvin, Michael Crabtree, Kenny Britt, Ryam Matthews, Darren McFadden, Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon, etc -- guys with difference making talent that are (sometimes massively) discounted due to injury and/or suspension. Almost always good value to be had...

 

[EBF]

I would buy Bernard Pierce while his price is fairly reasonable.

He passes the eyeball test to me.....the guy clearly can take over for Rice someday. It won't be this year unless Rice gets hurt, but Rice does have 4 seasons of 300+ touches and carried the ball a lot at Rutgers......Rice has racked up a lot of mileage.

I have him up there behind Michael with Brown as one of the most talented backups in the league.

I have no doubt that he has the talent to be an effective starter. The only major long term question is durability. He's prone to minor dings and he has multiple concussions in his past. Provided that those issues don't cause any major setbacks, it's only a matter of time until his opportunity expands. His value will blow up when that happens.

You might be looking at a 2-3 year wait though.

 

[EBF]

Always been a big Harvin fan. Still like his talent a lot. In Seattle he has a chance to be a ppg monster.

On the other hand, he strikes me as a bit of a Ferrari. Great when he's available, but frequently in the shop.

 

[EBF]

Agree on your Wilson and Miller calls. Big time boom-or-bust propositions. They could go the way of LeSean McCoy or Michael Bennett.

As for this...

Percy Harvin, Michael Crabtree, Kenny Britt, Ryam Matthews, Darren McFadden, Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon, etc -- guys with difference making talent that are (sometimes massively) discounted due to injury and/or suspension. Almost always good value to be had...

I think that's the biggest myth with DMC. There is still a widespread belief that he's this awesome talent waiting to be unleashed. He has shown flashes of that in the past, but also flashes of utter ineptitude. Witness last season when he was one of the worst (maybe THE worst) starting RB in the NFL by several objective measures. I don't think that would have happened to an in-his-prime star like MJD or Peterson regardless of the supporting cast and coaching staff.

He does have dynamic qualities that can show up at times, but I don't believe he's actually an above average starting RB on talent. There are too many weaknesses in his game. He's all straight line speed and zero creativity. Hence why he can't function unless the system is perfectly tailored to his strengths. And then there's the fact that he's pretty much guaranteed to get injured every season. Add it all up and he's not worth the trouble of what you'll have to pay to get him.

Fun stat of the day. Everyone's favorite scapegoats Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart both have more career carries and rushing yards than McFadden. The fact that McFadden has been handed the starting job on a plate for five seasons and still can't outproduce a guy who has basically never been a starter (Stewart) kind of says it all about his viability as a starter in FF/NFL.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'm not sure waiting to pitch your Michael offers is going to help. Unless there's some news that alters people's opinions about the guy his value will probably hover pretty high since everyone is already expecting to have to wait a year or two. OTOH it could go up if Lynch is out for some rason or Michael has a Turneresque 7-120-2 mop up line in some blowout.

 

[werdnoynek]

incoming squistion retort with useless drivel in 5...4...3...2...1

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'm not going to argue McFadden's talent with you man. He was a true difference maker in 2010 and 2011 in PPG on a terrible team. He's a UFA next year, and in a decent offense with competent coaching he can be again IMO. Obviously he has huge injury red flags. If you watch 2010 DMC and any version of Rashard Mendenhall side by side and think they're comparable talents in any way whatsoever you're seeing what you want to see.

 

[jurb26]

incoming squistion retort with useless drivel in 5...4...3...2...1

As opposed to this post which just adds so much to the discussion...

LOL, I was thinking the same thing.

 

[EBF]

I'm not going to argue McFadden's talent with you man. He was a true difference maker in 2010 and 2011 in PPG on a terrible team. He's a UFA next year, and in a decent offense with competent coaching he can be again IMO.

Steve Slaton was a difference maker once too. Doesn't make him a great talent.

McFadden's dynasty value is approaching a crossroads. The Raiders are going to be horrible this year. Even if you like McFadden's talent, it's tough to be optimistic about this team's offense. They will struggle to support him. That means he'll have to do it all on his own. He failed at that last year and I'm not sure this year will be much better. Factor in the 4-5 games he misses every year and I doubt the market for his signature will be very robust. He will get offers based on his name and what he was supposed to be, but it will probably be a Mendenhall situation where he's in a spotty offense and not quite guaranteed a starting role. No coach with any sense is going to hitch his wagon to a guy who can't handle 200+ carries in a season and is coming off consecutive sub 4.0 YPC seasons.

So yes, maybe he will go to a great team and dominate. It's certainly possible. It's also possible that he will be languishing in a RBBC on a below average team. I don't think his current dynasty value has adequately accounted for his negatives. There are numerous guys ranked below him who appear to offer more overall long term value, so for me he's an easy sell.

 

[Pipes]

For those saying to sell Foster what to you expect to get for him? It seems just about everyone is down on him to the point where I think it's better just to ride his production until he's done. Unless he has a couple of monster games then maybe someone will really get excited about him again.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

For those saying to sell Foster what to you expect to get for him? It seems just about everyone is down on him to the point where I think it's better just to ride his production until he's done. Unless he has a couple of monster games then maybe someone will really get excited about him again.

Agree with this. It holds true for Peterson, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Weller, Peyton, Brady, etc also. It's really hard to get reasonable value for the "boring old stud" type players. A year or two of Foster will give you more points over baseline than all but the most elite young guys will provide over an entire career -- and there's no way you're getting one of those guys in any reasonable league. IMO it's usually better to just go down with the ship.

 

[EBF]

I tend to agree with that. I've got Marshall and Fitz in a couple leagues. At this point I don't even bother sending out offers.

The one exception is the middle of the season, where a team on the fringes might be willing to sacrifice some long term value in order to make a run right now. That's probably the best time to move an older player along.

 

[Lordcoca]

Buying:

Christine Michael: I, like many others, believe that within the next 2 or 3 years Christine Michael will be an elite fantasy asset. I think this year he won't be startable, next year I think he may be in some sort of timeshare that is in Lynch's favor, and I think 3 years from now he'll be a clear cut starter and an elite talent at RB. It's a long time to wait, but I'm willing to sit on him at the bottom of my bench.

Josh Gordon: The owner in my league is down on him with his recent suspension, meanwhile I'm high on him after watching him outperform in the preseason, so I was able to acquire him for peanuts. I think the Browns might actually be on the up and up, the biggest issue inhibiting them is Weeden. I hope the old man takes a step forward this year but we won't really know till it happens. Still, Gordon is young and talented, and in the worst case there are some bright QB prospects in next years draft.

Marcus Lattimore: Another guy I'm willing to wait on for a few years. I think he might be productive sooner than Christine Michael, but the risk is apparent, how will his knees hold up? Reading about his work ethic and watching his draft speech have me sold on the kid though. I think he'll be trying his hardest to get healthy again. And we can't discount the positive influence of someone like Frank Gore who suffered a similar injury in college.

Kenny Britt: His value is pretty low going into this year, and I think it will probably get lower as the year progresses. Apparently he's still having issues with knee swelling up and with Locker at the helm I think he'll be at best a WR3 this year. So why am I buying him? Because he's undeniably talented and his contract is up this year. I'm buying him on the hopes that he'll get picked up next year by a team that might be able to use him better. Hopefully by then his knees will be back to 100%. The cost is low right now and if he ends up on a team like the Panthers or Colts, his value could really skyrocket.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The one exception is the middle of the season, where a team on the fringes might be willing to sacrifice some long term value in order to make a run right now. That's probably the best time to move an older player along.

Yeah, but at that point you're almost throwing in the towel on your current season, and in almost 20 years of dynasty FF across multiple (mostly) strong leagues, I've won as many titles with "what the heck" scrape in to the playoffs teams as I have with "dominant on paper start to finish" teams. Anything can happen in H2H playoffs, and championship banners fly forever.

 

[werdnoynek]

incoming squistion retort with useless drivel in 5...4...3...2...1

As opposed to this post which just adds so much to the discussion...

LOL, I was thinking the same thing.

I've added plenty this thread, he's added nothing.

 

[werdnoynek]

Buying:

Kenny Britt: His value is pretty low going into this year, and I think it will probably get lower as the year progresses. Apparently he's still having issues with knee swelling up and with Locker at the helm I think he'll be at best a WR3 this year. So why am I buying him? Because he's undeniably talented and his contract is up this year. I'm buying him on the hopes that he'll get picked up next year by a team that might be able to use him better. Hopefully by then his knees will be back to 100%. The cost is low right now and if he ends up on a team like the Panthers or Colts, his value could really skyrocket.

Britt is an interesting one. I think you can definitely get him at a discount at this point but with the knucklehead factor as well as the health, I don't know if it's worth the risk. I'm curious to see if he ends up on another team as you say, that would definitely spice things up a bit. I'm not so bullish on him but at the right price I may jump on it.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Buy:

Colin Kaepernick

A rocket arm, runs like a cheetah, and is smart enough to avoid big hits. This guy has immense talent and the leadership skills to become a top 3 dynasty QB.

T.Y. Hilton

Incredible speed? Check. Future hall of fame QB? Check.

 

[valhallan]

Buy:

Colin Kaepernick

A rocket arm, runs like a cheetah, and is smart enough to avoid big hits. This guy has immense talent and the leadership skills to become a top 3 dynasty QB.

The bolded is a big reason I felt compelled to make a strong move to acquire Kaep as my cornerstone QB. Guys with his running ability have historically been prone to injury, but he seems keenly aware of when to avoid hits and get to the next snap. RGIII really needs to learn this, as he took too many shots (especially on the sidelines) to make throws that barely mattered in the grand scheme of the game.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Buy:

Colin Kaepernick

A rocket arm, runs like a cheetah, and is smart enough to avoid big hits. This guy has immense talent and the leadership skills to become a top 3 dynasty QB

Agree with you on Kaep's talent, but:

A.) He's effin expensive - like top - 5 QB cost

B.) QB is so deep right now that it doesn't make sense to pay a lot for any of them. If I need a QB I'd rather rent an old steady for a few years for pennies than cough up a core RB / WR for a young stud like Kaep, RGIII, Luck, Cam, etc.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Buy:

Colin Kaepernick

A rocket arm, runs like a cheetah, and is smart enough to avoid big hits. This guy has immense talent and the leadership skills to become a top 3 dynasty QB.

The bolded is a big reason I felt compelled to make a strong move to acquire Kaep as my cornerstone QB. Guys with his running ability have historically been prone to injury, but he seems keenly aware of when to avoid hits and get to the next snap. RGIII really needs to learn this, as he took too many shots (especially on the sidelines) to make throws that barely mattered in the grand scheme of the game.

Yes. I watched every RGIII game last year, and he is reckless with his body. That's the main reason I traded RGIII for Kaep in my dynasty league. Kaep seems to have amazing radar when it comes to avoiding brutal tackles.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Buy:

Colin Kaepernick

A rocket arm, runs like a cheetah, and is smart enough to avoid big hits. This guy has immense talent and the leadership skills to become a top 3 dynasty QB

Agree with you on Kaep's talent, but:

A.) He's effin expensive - like top - 5 QB cost

B.) QB is so deep right now that it doesn't make sense to pay a lot for any of them. If I need a QB I'd rather rent an old steady for a few years for pennies than cough up a core RB / WR for a young stud like Kaep, RGIII, Luck, Cam, etc.

I agree with everything you said. Although your philosophy works at every position. Every dynasty owner stocks his rosters with a couple of studs and a lot of value players.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Nice thread here EBF.



Buying:



Mark Ingram - The two guys sharing time with him are getting older and he's still only 23 (24 December). His value is as low as it's going to go IMO and he's entering his first season fully healthy. I think he's going to show us why he won the Heisman and why he was drafted in the first round. While the Hall of Fame is still a ways out of reach (heh), he has the talent and ability to be special in the league. I still believe.



Jonathan Stewart - This is someone I'm sure I'll get criticized for but I think everyone seems to be jumping ship on him. He's had his share of injuries but I think the team will allow him to heal and his talent isn't going anywhere. In dynasty, injuries like this are something I look to take advantage of with the right guys and you probably won't have to pay too much to get him. I think it's a good opportunity to pick him up if you have space to let him heal and perhaps find a better situation.



Josh Gordon - The reefer smoking has him in the doghouse for some owners, if you haven't already tested them, you may as well try now. Because if his head is (finally) on straight and not stuck in clouds of smoke, the sky is the limit. I think he's something like a high stakes gamble... you'll have to pay alot to get him and could lose it all... but the jackpot could be team changing.



Alshon Jeffery - I've been a buyer of Jeffrey since he exploded onto the CFB scene in 2010 - the fat photos made me even more hungry for him... while everyone was down on him, I was still sky high. I think this kid has future stud written all over him. He has the hands, the leaping ability, the speed to get deep and, as long as he stays healthy, we're going to see it this season. Get him while he's a WR3.



Stephen Hill - Measurements that most WR's would kill for... Hill had a lackluster rookie season. That coupled with the issues with the Jets as a whole, makes him a good buy and at a discount at the moment. I don't expect him to shock the world this year, but I think he can still develop into a special receiver if he puts the work in. If Geno develops, I think Hill will develop with him and they'll become a nice connection. I'm skeptically bullish on Hill, I just can't get over his potential.

Quinton Patton - Wow. I'm sad to say I missed out on Patton in rookie drafts. I liked him coming out but didn't end up with him on any of my teams. He looked fantastic in limited action in the preseason and I think he'll be the WR2 in no time over Moore this season. He's electric and has the skills to be special. I'm trying to buy but it's hard to pry him from owners at this point... I'm kicking myself for not having him rostered.

Ladarius Green - Size/speed guy who seems to working his way to playing time. Gates is getting up there in age and Green may be the heir to Gates' throne. With the WR woes in SD, I think that we could see him making an impact this season. It may be hard to pry him from the owner but I think he's a guy to get now before it's too late.

Taylor Thompson - The former DE turned TE is beast of a man. 6'6" 268lbs - with 4.57 speed. I think he's starting to put the talent together and make strides. The Titans like this kid and I don't see much in front of him to keep him off the field. Walker hasn't been known for his good health and Stevens is a blocker only in my eyes. I'm looking for Thompson get opportunities and can see him making of the most of them soon.



Sell:

Arian Foster - I'd wait for his first big game and sell this season. He's on the down-slope in my eyes and can't seem to keep from getting dinged up. I'd be trying to dump him for a young up and comer if I could. I just don't see him sustaining his touch number or production this season or into the future. It could be too late already to dump him IMO.

Roddy White - Julio is already taking over as the main target and Roddy is playing second fiddle. The writing was on the wall last season. You'll probably have a hard time finding a buyer, but I'd target someone like Jeffrey for him if there's a taker. Sell him while you can!

Anquan Boldin - I think Boldin will be great in redraft this year. I just don't see him continuing his dominance as a possession monster with the talent that the 9er's are accumulating on their roster. As early as next season IMO, once Crabtree comes back, I think the 9er's will have a hard time keeping Boldin on the field with Patton being the playmaker he is. This could be a premature sell, but this may be the highest Boldin's value will ever be again IMO. I'm also a believer in Baldwin who seems like a Boldin clone, if Baldwin can continue to develop (IF), it could assist in making it game over for Boldin in SF.

Delanie Walker - I just don't see it with Walker. Sure he was second fiddle to Davis all those years and has shown flashes in limited action but I question his ability to be a high volume target TE. I think there are some that are quite high on him, if you find the right owner I'd sell after Walkers first big game. I'm higher on Taylor Thompson and think he could push Walker to the 2nd TE on another team in the next season or two.

I'm also regretting missing out on Patton. I don't see him as a WR1 at any point, but he figures to be a solid contributor and he's in a good offense.

Roddy and Foster seem like they're about to fall off a cliff. Where they're ranked on generic dynasty lists and where owners actually value them might vary though. I find that a lot of people will rank older WRs like Fitz, VJax, Andre, and Roddy highly, but when you actually try to trade one of those players, it's really hard to find a decent offer. He's still probably overvalued, as I think some of the younger options offer more net value if you're willing to take on some of the uncertainty that surrounds a newcomer.

I tried to tell that you were. He looks like he has whatever "it" is when I watched him in the preseason.

 

[Cabby]

Selling

Shane Vereen - It's possible I'll miss the boat, but his value is as high as it's ever been. I'll let someone else carry the burden of trying to figure out if he'll be in NE's gameplan this week or lay an egg.

Interested in what people think Vareens value is right now...if you could trade him for a 1st round 2014 rookie pick would you do it?

 

[EBF]

Selling

Shane Vereen - It's possible I'll miss the boat, but his value is as high as it's ever been. I'll let someone else carry the burden of trying to figure out if he'll be in NE's gameplan this week or lay an egg.

Interested in what people think Vareens value is right now...if you could trade him for a 1st round 2014 rookie pick would you do it?

Yes, I would. I think Vereen will always be a fringe player in FF at best. Those guys are never THAT hard to find in FF.

On the other hand, the first round of the rookie draft might be your only chance in a given year to get a potential elite talent.

 

[squistion]

Selling

Shane Vereen - It's possible I'll miss the boat, but his value is as high as it's ever been. I'll let someone else carry the burden of trying to figure out if he'll be in NE's gameplan this week or lay an egg.

Interested in what people think Vareens value is right now...if you could trade him for a 1st round 2014 rookie pick would you do it?

Not in a PPR league, which is the one league I own him in. I think his upside is greater than a speculative 2014 1st.

 

[az_prof]

Selling

Shane Vereen - It's possible I'll miss the boat, but his value is as high as it's ever been. I'll let someone else carry the burden of trying to figure out if he'll be in NE's gameplan this week or lay an egg.

Interested in what people think Vareens value is right now...if you could trade him for a 1st round 2014 rookie pick would you do it?

Yes, I would. I think Vereen will always be a fringe player in FF at best. Those guys are never THAT hard to find in FF.

On the other hand, the first round of the rookie draft might be your only chance in a given year to get a potential elite talent.

I agree. Assuming you could give him up without totally compromising your competitiveness THIS year.

 

[biju]

Selling

Shane Vereen - It's possible I'll miss the boat, but his value is as high as it's ever been. I'll let someone else carry the burden of trying to figure out if he'll be in NE's gameplan this week or lay an egg.

Interested in what people think Vareens value is right now...if you could trade him for a 1st round 2014 rookie pick would you do it?

I did sell him for a 2014 1st where the team I sold him I have pegged as a 4th-7th overall pick. I like Vereen's overall talent but in NE I think the only consistent player to get fantasy points is Tom Brady. The rest are a crapshoot dependent on Belichick's gameplan.

 

[valhallan]

I think moving Vereen right now is incredibly risky. Young RBs always fetch the biggest windfalls and he's poised to be the 'hot' story at some point in the first few weeks.

 

[EBF]

There's a low ceiling on what he can become without the potential for 200+ carries in addition to his receptions.

Considering that his dynasty value was at scrap heap levels before last year's NFL playoffs, I would be delighted to send him packing for a future 1st.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Buy:

Colin Kaepernick

A rocket arm, runs like a cheetah, and is smart enough to avoid big hits. This guy has immense talent and the leadership skills to become a top 3 dynasty QB.

The bolded is a big reason I felt compelled to make a strong move to acquire Kaep as my cornerstone QB. Guys with his running ability have historically been prone to injury, but he seems keenly aware of when to avoid hits and get to the next snap. RGIII really needs to learn this, as he took too many shots (especially on the sidelines) to make throws that barely mattered in the grand scheme of the game.

Yes. I watched every RGIII game last year, and he is reckless with his body. That's the main reason I traded RGIII for Kaep in my dynasty league. Kaep seems to have amazing radar when it comes to avoiding brutal tackles.

in recent dynasty draft, didn't make preemptive move for RGIII for essentially this reason... round later, had choice of kaep and stafford, and one tie breaker (among other things), was SF having maybe best OL in league, and relatively young...

 

[valhallan]

There's a low ceiling on what he can become without the potential for 200+ carries in addition to his receptions.

Considering that his dynasty value was at scrap heap levels before last year's NFL playoffs, I would be delighted to send him packing for a future 1st.

Hard to pass up a future 1st. I just expect Bill is going to use him like a WR and send dynasty owners into a slobbering fest to acquire the guy.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think moving Vereen right now is incredibly risky. Young RBs always fetch the biggest windfalls and he's poised to be the 'hot' story at some point in the first few weeks.

Yeah I would wait for him to have a big game then see what he will fetch at that point.

I worry about Vereen not always being in the game plan. He is the kind of player who would drive me nutz deciding to start or not from week to week.

 

[finito]

There's a low ceiling on what he can become without the potential for 200+ carries in addition to his receptions.

Unless he's used like Sproles... not saying he will be, but there's certainly a precedent for valuable RBs who don't get tons of carries, and Vereen will likely get more carries than Sproles... remains to be seen if he's consistent in the passing game.

 

[saintfool]

Isn't Vereen just another Kevin Caulk really? I'd take R1 for Faulk in a heartbeat.

 

[squistion]

There's a low ceiling on what he can become without the potential for 200+ carries in addition to his receptions.

Considering that his dynasty value was at scrap heap levels before last year's NFL playoffs, I would be delighted to send him packing for a future 1st.

His value last year before the playoffs is irrelevant. As with any player, the only thing that really counts is what his value is NOW.

Assuming you actually owned him in a league, I am sure you would be delighted swapping him straight up for a future 1st. However, if most Vereen owners have been following what has been going on in training camp, I doubt they would part with him for that.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6445/shane-Vereen

SI's Peter King calls Shane Vereen a "multi-threat weapon" who will likely take on some of Aaron Hernandez's old role.

The Boston Herald made a similar observation earlier in camp. With the talent to line up all over the field, including in the slot and even outside receiver, Vereen is going to sponge up touches after totaling just 85 through his first two NFL seasons. He's a high-end flex option with some RB2 appeal. Aug 19 - 9:27 AM

Source: Sports Illustrated

 

[ConnSKINS26]

If there's one guy I take my fantasy advice from, it's Peter King.

 

[EBF]

It's a numbers game for Vereen. We know that Ridley is going to get 250+ carries if healthy. That pretty much eliminates the prospect of Vereen amassing big total yardage. His value will hinge entirely on his usage in the passing game, and I'm not convinced that there will be enough looks there to make him more than a RB3 or weak RB2 even in PPR.

I increasingly believe that building dynasty teams is about accumulating as many of the absolute top tier players as you can get. I don't think Vereen has any chance to reach that level, whereas a first round pick is one of the few ways to find the next Martin/Peterson/Demaryius/Dez type of player. I would much rather have the pick.

 

[az_prof]

It's a numbers game for Vereen. We know that Ridley is going to get 250+ carries if healthy. That pretty much eliminates the prospect of Vereen amassing big total yardage. His value will hinge entirely on his usage in the passing game, and I'm not convinced that there will be enough looks there to make him more than a RB3 or weak RB2 even in PPR.

I increasingly believe that building dynasty teams is about accumulating as many of the absolute top tier players as you can get. I don't think Vereen has any chance to reach that level, whereas a first round pick is one of the few ways to find the next Martin/Peterson/Demaryius/Dez type of player. I would much rather have the pick.

I agree with the bolded bit in EBF's statement. The reason this is so is because these top tier players really give you largest value differential with your opponents. And, if you watch the waiver wire carefully, you can always fill in the flex spot and the WR3 with good enough players. But if you don't have a core of players on whom you can count to put up 20 pts/game on a regular basis, you are starting in a big hole.

 

[karmarooster]

Here's a buy for discussion: ARZ WR Floyd. Last year kept his value down but he has everything to be a long term strong WR2, potential WR 1. Big frame, elite pedigree, dominant in college. At ND I thought he looked like one of the best WRs in the country, with less negatives than Blackmon. Plus he showed he can dominate in the NFL in week 17. Last chance to get him before his value jumps up to the Hakeem Nicks, Josh Gordon, Blackmon, Britt range. Thoughts?

 

[cstu]

Here's a buy for discussion: ARZ WR Floyd. Last year kept his value down but he has everything to be a long term strong WR2, potential WR 1. Big frame, elite pedigree, dominant in college. At ND I thought he looked like one of the best WRs in the country, with less negatives than Blackmon. Plus he showed he can dominate in the NFL in week 17. Last chance to get him before his value jumps up to the Hakeem Nicks, Josh Gordon, Blackmon, Britt range. Thoughts?

Teams have a top 7 pick invested in him, what do you think you could get him for?

 

[EBF]

Here's a buy for discussion: ARZ WR Floyd. Last year kept his value down but he has everything to be a long term strong WR2, potential WR 1. Big frame, elite pedigree, dominant in college. At ND I thought he looked like one of the best WRs in the country, with less negatives than Blackmon. Plus he showed he can dominate in the NFL in week 17. Last chance to get him before his value jumps up to the Hakeem Nicks, Josh Gordon, Blackmon, Britt range. Thoughts?

Teams have a top 7 pick invested in him, what do you think you could get him for?

On paper, Floyd makes a lot of sense as a guy to target. He has the dimensions, the workout numbers, and the draft pedigree of a potential #1 NFL WR. I was never quite 100% sold on him and I'm still not, but you could do a lot worse if you're a rebuilding team and you're looking for someone with the potential to pop down the road. Maybe even as early as this season.

What cstu said is valid though. It also applies to Blackmon. The people who own them probably gave up a lot to get them, and thus aren't inclined to trade them cheaply. So while you might see Blackmon at WR20 or Floyd at WR40 on some generic dynasty rankings, it's likely that the Blackmon owner values him more like WR10 and the Floyd owner more like WR20. That's going to make it difficult to get either of them for an attractive price. However, in a startup draft where you're starting from scratch and nobody has any sunken cost in either of those two, they both make a lot of sense from a risk/reward standpoint.

 

[Papa John's]

Here's a buy for discussion: ARZ WR Floyd. Last year kept his value down but he has everything to be a long term strong WR2, potential WR 1. Big frame, elite pedigree, dominant in college. At ND I thought he looked like one of the best WRs in the country, with less negatives than Blackmon. Plus he showed he can dominate in the NFL in week 17. Last chance to get him before his value jumps up to the Hakeem Nicks, Josh Gordon, Blackmon, Britt range. Thoughts?

Teams have a top 7 pick invested in him, what do you think you could get him for?

Yeah ... this is a tough one. I have tried in both of my dynasty leagues, and because of the high pick that has been invested (just last year) owners are not willing to sell low and are talking him up in all my leagues. If you can get him though, at a good price, I like the thought.

 

[Biabreakable]

I would look to kick the tires on Montee Ball. I would not pay more than 2nd round rookie pick or similar replacement level type value for him. But he could be a factor later on this season or next. I would also look to add CJ Anderson if you can make room for him.

I would sell Bernard Pierce. I really didn't like what I saw and the Ravens are missing Matt Birk. If Oher misses time this Oline is somewhat of a mess. The Ravens put some magic together late last season moving McKinney into the lineup and moving Oher to RT. But that magic may be gone and Pierce did not seem to create on his own.

 

[Zaphod]

Buy:

Sam Bradford, STL, QB - Offensive weapons added daily, new game plan seemingly beneficial, made statistical improvements last year. I feel he will continue to trend upward with a big year in 2015.

Chris Ivory, NYJ, RB - I loved what he did in NO, WHEN he was on the field. Big injury risk and playing on a poor team, but the upside is there if he can avoid future injuries.

Michael Floyd, ARI, WR - His owner may be getting a bit frustrated by the lack of production that his draft pedigree might have otherwise suggested. I like his physicality and he has shown better than expected speed.

Chris Givens, STL, WR - This goes along with the Bradford pick. He showed me a lot last year and with continued progression this year, should emerge as a viable option out of the stable of weapons in STL.

Cecil Shorts, JAC, WR - This guy just makes plays with crap at QB. Would like to see what he could do with an actual NFL QB.

Sell:

Andy Dalton, CIN, QB - I don't think his FF stats will ever be elite, has lots of weapons and you should be able to get decent value for him. I feel you can replace his numbers with many other options.

DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB - I have concerns that his durability will never match the expectations. You should still be able to get high value for him.

Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR - you always have the attitude and now the hip. I like to get off the ship before it starts taking on water. Get good return on your investment now.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Agree on Vereen as a sell -- and I liked him coming out and drafted him as a rookie in a couple of leagues. Yes, he might have an increased role this year, but it feels like it's more by default than design. Pretty much every skill position player in NE the past few years has been more involved in the offense than has Vereen -- that doesn't speak well to his talent level.

 

[karmarooster]

Here's a buy for discussion: ARZ WR Floyd. Last year kept his value down but he has everything to be a long term strong WR2, potential WR 1. Big frame, elite pedigree, dominant in college. At ND I thought he looked like one of the best WRs in the country, with less negatives than Blackmon. Plus he showed he can dominate in the NFL in week 17. Last chance to get him before his value jumps up to the Hakeem Nicks, Josh Gordon, Blackmon, Britt range. Thoughts?

Teams have a top 7 pick invested in him, what do you think you could get him for?

Probably for less than you'll be able to get in him in about 6 weeks. Although the true buy low point was probably before week 17 last season.

 

[msudaisy26]

Julius Thomas - is he a buy or sell?

 

[msudaisy26]

The question is do we think Vereen can put up numbers with 150 to 175 touches. I figure he gets 100 or so carries and 50 or so catches

 

[Biabreakable]

I do think you can try to get cute by looking at teams that struggle defending pass catching RB as spot starts for Vereen. But you are rolling the dice every time you start him. Emperor Palpatine not easy to predict. Will likely be inconsistent unless a few other guys flop reducing Brady's options.