Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
cmon - easy money!
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Woof. I must have missed an update on Gibbs. There was speculation that his injury was actually an ACL tear. Carry on, then!
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
anyone dealt JJacobs?
It seems to me that other owners aren't real high on him when I have tried to move him. Even to the point of saying they have no interest in him despite not having much at the position. What am I missing?
It seems to me that other owners aren't real high on him when I have tried to move him. Even to the point of saying they have no interest in him despite not having much at the position. What am I missing?
sheerterror
Footballguy
He went for Gus Edwards and 2 2025 2nd's in an FFPC I'm in 2 weeks ago.
joey
Footballguy
JJM Out for season according to a Sleeper alert.
I guess an impatient dynasty owner might sell low now, especially a Win Now superflex team?
It’s just too easy to stash a guy on IR for the year and use that empty roster spot for another player, rather than sell low imo.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Someone just offered me a 2025 2nd for JJM and my reply was “that’s a good way for me to never look at another of your trade offers. Please don’t do that again.”
lol
joey
Footballguy
I assume superflex? Otherwise it’s not that insulting.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Superflex.
Deeply insulting.
And during the draft I paid Puka for JJM & a couple pieces. 16 teams, too.
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Mistakes Were Made
Footballguy
KTC, which isn't perfect but is the voice of the average manager in your league, clock JJM as somewhere between a 2025 late 1st and 2025 early 2nd. A 2nd is an underpay, but it's not insulting.
Seems about right. He went 1.10 in my 2QB dynasty rookie draft a few months ago, fwiw.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In Superflex?
I just checked and it’s a 20% lowball, and that’s for a 12 team format, assuming an early 2nd.
I’m in 16 team format. It’s significantly harder to get a QB in that large a league.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
KTC has it 4039 to 3253 in 12 team SF.
That’s assuming an early 2nd, too.
That’s a 20% underpay. How does that seem right?
That’s literally the difference of a player like Darnell Mooney or Ty Chandler. I know YMMV, but that seems hardly worth getting insulted over to me.
Again, he went 1.10 in our draft back in May. And that’s a 2QB league. Sure, he looked competent against mostly backups in his first pre-season action, but I don’t think his value has really changed much since May. Darnold was probably always starting the season and now you have have to factor in that he’ll miss the entire season. Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things for dynasty, but it’s still a lost season.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Sunk costs even a few months later. JJM's injury is a significant setback to his progression. I think most drafters were expecting him to be the Vikings QB1 and ready to rock week 1 2025. Now he won't get a meaningful number of in-season practice or game snaps. He's young and I'm not necessarily worried about the injury impacting his performance, BUT his development will be set back close to a full year. If they rush him to start 2025, he may not be ready (mentally, psychologically, and/or emotionally).
All that to say, I wouldn't trade him for a 2nd in a 12 or 16 team league but I certainly would consider a low to mid 1st and a player for him unless my bench was deep and the IR spots plentiful.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
A random 2nd doesn’t get me a starting QB in SF in a 16 team league in 2025.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Correct - his value hasn’t changed. He went 1.07 in my league. Which again, is a 16 team SF format.
So why would I give him up for a random 2025 2nd?
His value hasn’t tanked, and I still need a 2nd QB next year.
It’s a preposterous offer.
I never said I’d move him for that. But we’re not talking about Caleb Williams here, either. He was essentially QB4 in every rookie draft.
It’s not a trade most that drafted JJ are going to make at this point, no. But I’d hardly describe it as “deeply insulting.”
You referenced KTC earlier. The difference between an early 2nd and JJ is pick 3.07. Would that close the gap for you if he had tacked on a mid-late 3rd? Probably not, right?
Sometimes I think we have to take a step back and look at player values objectively. I’m guilty of it, too. We get attached and excited for these young guys we draft but how we view them doesn’t always align with the market.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Actually someone else used KTC & said it was even.
I went to KTC and showed that wasn’t true.
I don’t think KTC is a very credible calc, and it doesn’t adjust for league size.
The calc I use that does adjust for league size has it 174 - 37 for a random 2025 2nd
That’s an ~80% lowball in a 16-team SF.
Totally insulting.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
16 team PPR TE-P, Start 2 TE
Which side:
• Puka Nacua
Or
• TJ Hockenson+X.Worthy
Which side:
• Puka Nacua
Or
• TJ Hockenson+X.Worthy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
That seems pretty close to me. I think Puka has to come down to Earth a little bit with a healthy Kupp but I really like Worthy's upside and when Hock is fully healthy he's $$. Gun to my head I probably go with Worthy/Hock
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
What if you’re in a win-now window & losing Puka means your starting WRs are Pittman, Deebo, McLaurin, & Cooper as a result?
Same answer?
Still Puka pretty easily for me.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Even in a 16 team mandatory start 2 tight end, TEP format?
That’s a really tough league to get elite TE’s since they’re arguably the most valuable players.
That’s quite the TE Premium, definitely makes it closer. I’d still lean Puka, but not “easily” anymore lol.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, in this case format is everything.
I have Kmet + Schultz and nothing behind them.
I’m deep enough at WR to wait for Worthy if he’s got a big future.
Trying to win back to back - this would be a go for it move.
Is this on the table or just something you’re considering offering?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
We are in discussions verbally. This was thrown out as something for me to consider.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
If you are fully set at TE, then maybe I would keep Puka (as I have a block against Cooper lol)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Kmet+Schultz, so, ah, no. Not set. Lol
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Draft sharks value chart has
Puka - 70
Hock - 28
Worthy - 45
So 73-70 in my favor, not counting TEP, or must start 2 TE lineup.
Puka - 70
Hock - 28
Worthy - 45
So 73-70 in my favor, not counting TEP, or must start 2 TE lineup.
Woke up to this one in my inbox this morning. I’m a contender in this league, looking to repeat. Start 11.
Give: Nico Collins, 2026 1st
Get: Jonathan Taylor, 2026 2nd
Current RB Room notables: Bijan, Gibbs, White
Current WR Room notables: Puka, Aiyuk, Adams, Collins, DK, Higgins, Flowers, Addison
Curious what you guys think of this. I think it’s a reject to me, as I don’t have a 25’ 1st already so the 26 is my next one. Considering countering with Nico/26 2nd for JT but I’m not sure? Does that help me enough to win again this year?
Give: Nico Collins, 2026 1st
Get: Jonathan Taylor, 2026 2nd
Current RB Room notables: Bijan, Gibbs, White
Current WR Room notables: Puka, Aiyuk, Adams, Collins, DK, Higgins, Flowers, Addison
Curious what you guys think of this. I think it’s a reject to me, as I don’t have a 25’ 1st already so the 26 is my next one. Considering countering with Nico/26 2nd for JT but I’m not sure? Does that help me enough to win again this year?
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I am not very high on Nico but I would be concerned about not having a first round pick for a couple years.
I think the trade is close - do you think you could pull a 2025 2nd? 2025 looks pretty loaded for RB's, which means you probably get some decent value falling in the 2nd round.
Possibly. I also considered adding a 3rd and him adding Will Shipley. I actually sent him that exact trade last week and he rejected it, but if it’s part of this much bigger deal he may be more obliged to do it.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
As said before, it's pretty even. What's the old adage about wanting to be on the side of the trade with the fewer players? I expect Puka to regress a bit this year, but he is only 23 and he has demonstrated greatness in an historic season. I think I'd keep him. You won last season with Kmet and Schultz presumably?Draft sharks value chart has
Puka - 70
Hock - 28
Worthy - 45
So 73-70 in my favor, not counting TEP, or must start 2 TE lineup.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I did. But kmet’s value is plummeting with Everett’s presence, and Schultz replacement is on the roster.
Anyway, dude balked last second.
Now looking at offering:
My Puka, Conners, Ernest Jones, and a DT
For his Hock, KWIII, [lesser LB], Demarcus Robinson
Would get my younger at RB + a franchise TE with Hock, but a big downgrade to my older WRs & a drop off at LB.
Struggling to make the offer.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d reject it. JT is a luxury you don’t really need, and Nico is an ascending talent.
Tempting, but no. And also it’s about losing the 1st, especially since you lack a 2025 1st.
How much would a guy like Ferguson fetch in this league? I’d maybe try and target someone like that. Regardless of how you feel about the player, he should be in line for a massive target share this year at least.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I’m very high on Ferguson.
I checked that team & they don’t have a TE to spare, nor the pieces to make it work.
Sometimes it’s a just a bad fit, roster-wise.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Probably looks good on a calc, but given your WR room, I'd stick with what I had, scour the WW and retool/reload next year.
He’s inquiring about Puka now lol. I asked him what he was throwing in on the JT said, and he said “a 2nd plus.”
That plus would still have to be something considerable for me to consider moving Puka I believe.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I look at it like this: I won last year. If I’m out of it by the trade deadline imma start selling my olds for future 1st & 2nd round picks.
Might as well try to run it back, and if not use Ernest & Puka as O & D cornerstones to continue to build around for another run.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Reasonable plan.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Appreciate everyone’s input on this.
I actually liked the Worthy+Hock for Puka deal - had that gone through I’d have been fine with it. the funny thing is they actually sent a counter to that totally fair offer, just casually asking that I add Ernest Jones to my side.
In a big-play 16-team IDP format, a ~24 y/o top 6 LB should fetch a 1st round pick ++
Just totally unreasonable. Negotiating with some folks just isn’t worth the headache. When I rejected, dude says, “Hock is super valuable. Do you think I’m stupid?”
Right. Because Puka isn’t?
I’m sure he’ll send more offers. And I’m sure they’ll all be just as bad, too. lol
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Last roster spot and torn on what to do with Kendre Miller. He has talent but can't stay healthy. Keep him or drop him for one of these rookies....
Deneric Prince
Audric Estime
Sione Vaki
Deneric Prince
Audric Estime
Sione Vaki
sheerterror
Footballguy
Miller is likely a cut for me in a league or 2, but I would keep him over all 3 of those names.
Definitely holding over those guys.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Estime is the only one I would consider over Miller but that said, Miller's warning lights are flashing very bright right now
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Nabers or Puka?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oof. I’m kinda on team Nabers here.
Love Puka. Nabers is an athletic freak and looks like mini-Randy Moss out there. He just looks like he’s better than everyone on the field. It’s hard to describe that “it” factor.
Puka is great - I love him. But I think his numbers drop a little this year.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
RIght now? Puka. He's performed at a high level and has a solid QB for at least this year and next. Nabers is more 'talented', but his QB situation is awful and he hasn't performed (yet).
