ghostguy123
Footballguy
Sounds like this is a fantastic year to have the 1.1 and sell the #### out of it.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Free fall is kind of a relative term though. If Barkley is holding top 5 value right now and plays like Mixon did going from #5 overall value to a late 3rd is pretty much a free fall.
Zyphros
Footballguy
New coaching staff, not having a ton of faith in Trubisky, and roster restrictions. I like him as a buy low but I need to consolidate some picks and players a bit.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Well I'd do that one pretty quickly. That's nowhere near #5 overall value. Davis is what, a 3rd? 1.05 would be at best a 3rd. 1.16 is kind of a toss-in when talking about the 1.01, that's at best a 6th or so in a startup. Generally speaking the 1.01 ends up somewhere in the 2nd round of a startup. Two 3rds and a 6th for a 2nd? I'd do that in most years, and I'd definitely do it based on where Barkley is being rated. Matter of fact that's pretty much a snap accept.
Or it could have been MWilliams or OJ Howard or John Ross, or Yeldon or Abdullah or Ken Dixon or Ebron or J. Mathews and on and on and on. Those two may have hit (Kamara went 11th in my leagues) but people tend to gloss over that the majority of the field typically busts.
I’m actually of the complete opposite view. I prefer to build my team by loading up on young running backs and trading for veteran wide receivers. I feel like with RBs you know pretty quickly whether you have something good or not, as opposed to WRs that you may have to wait years on. For example in recent years I was to acquire guys like Crabtree, Fitzgerald, J. Nelson, etc. for very cheap prices, because WR dynasty value drops off a cliff after 30. I still like to take young WRs later on (guys like Golladay or Godwin), but my high picks are almost exclusively spent on RBs.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
That's fine. We're talking about building a roster not shooting the moon. Building a roster is a 2-3 year process at best. While not the main point of your post, your original comment was about teams that remain in purgatory. Those teams do more than make a few bad picks. Everyone makes a few bad picks. If someone takes Elliott and stays in the league, he should eventually have a competitive lineup. He should eventually get some good players - as you said, "hit there, missed there." He should eventually be in a position where drafting Hunt or Kamara, or trading a pick for Keenan Allen, gets his team pretty close. A lineup is 8 to 10 players not including D/K, and a deadbeat roster includes plenty of space for fliers; we shouldn't pretend rebuilding is harder than it is. Like the NBA, three great players and no holes gets you pretty close. At this point, bad teams that took Zeke still have a 22.5 year old RB as their best player to build around. You could argue that Elliott has more value than the rest of the 2016 draft at this point. Back to your original point, the WR who've come out recently have kind of failed the elite test. There have been top 10 picks, but no one has had the aura of Green, Jones, or Calvin. The players who have come out recently who have been hyped as elite are Elliott, Gurley, and now Barkley. I wouldn't even include Fournette in that class, although it's subjective. The closest WR prospect recently was probably Watkins, and his career has been uneven for various reasons, including landing spot and injury. Some WR have turned out to be elite. and those players would be preferable to a RB in a clean slate scenario, even a 22 year old one. RB are both fungible and unstable, but generational or near-generational do not have that limitation. There are definitely places where you should devalue RB. A team with only Bell should sell. A team with only Johnson should sell. I think those are easy choices where WR is preferable, even if you lose a little value. But I see few cases where a team with just Elliott or just 1.1 makes out on a trade.
I agree on that point as well, and wasn't trying to say someone should sell no matter what when they hold a top pick and their cupboard is bare. Kind of like those sell high threads that pop up every year where people just list names without taking into account what you can actually get in return (or that everyone else considers that player a sell high and won't want to buy.) It's sounding like one can sell the 1.01 this year for a huge premium and I think it's a mistake to not do so and just have Barkley sitting on your roster when you could have potentially 2 or 3 or 4 high level players/prospects to up your odds. To take the scenario mentioned before, if I was a 1.01 owner in PPR and had very little else on my roster, I would be hard pressed to pass on something like the 1.05 + Davis + 1.10. That's likely a solid RB prospect, the best WR prospect from last year (who is a way better prospect than any WR this year) and a decent lottery pick at 10.
IMO, I don't agree with that apathy comment either. There are certainly those owners in every league, but I have seen time and time again guys constantly stuck in purgatory due to those mid range picks getting injured, under-performing the first few years until most have given up on them or outright busting. Some of this comes down to league settings: how many starters, and when do you do your rookie draft. The later the rookie the draft, the easier it is to weed out the landmines like Mike Williams back problems this past year and for guys like Hunt or Kamara to move up. My leagues all draft right after the NFL draft so the potential for mid-range busts is much higher in that type of scenario as we only have college and the draft to go on at that point.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Just a quick update on Mccoy. I was offered pick 11 for him and turned it down. I imagine most of you would take it, but as my #3 RB on a top team I dont think thats the right way to go. Also, and not that i personally lit much weight into it, but the team offering is one of the other top teams who could really use a good second RB.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd want more than that for McCoy. Even a single RB1 season is a big chunk of VBD. I also like to trade my aging vets close to the trade deadline. His going rate won't be much different week 10 of next season than it is today. His actual value will be 25+% less, however.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Certainly--older backs are risky assets. But late firsts end up busting more often than not as well. I'd certainly move McCoy if he wasn't in my lineup. But he's an early 2nd round redraft pick next year--and that's quite a hit to my short-term championship chances.
Would agree with that as well, it's a long offseason and there are other offers that could come. We don't have a good idea where tier breaks are right now for rookies (and even if someone does have their tiers already in place, it's likely to be reshuffled multiple times after the underwear Olympics, pro-days and the actual draft) so its hard to judge the value of that late first. If you really wanted to move him prior to the season, I would think preseason would be the best time and try to get a future 1st for a weaker contender that has a chance at being a better pick than the 11.
I don't own Meredith so have not been keeping up with his recovery. If he's healthy I'd rather have him straight up over Dez.
Not sure if I'd take it yet but fact he's my #3RB would be more reason to do it IMO. He's my #1 or #2 I got more reservations.
saintfool
Dead sexy
this has been my strategy. i have been willing to work the waiver wire in conjunction with later round picks at RB. as a result, with one team, i started with Julio before getting Nuk, Odell, and Alshon as a core. I think the shelf life for top WRs is longer than that of top RBs. i've added to the WRs and made investments in credible RB situations on decent offenses (Miller/Ajayi in one season and Ware/Hunt this year, for example). it's kept me in the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years as the #1 seed and winning the league championship in 2 of those seasons.
I offered Fournette and pick 12 for the 1.1 and was told they'd do it for Corey Davis or Josh Gordon instead of the 12. I ended up offering Gordon and Fournette but got rejected, he said he just could not feel good about it. Not sure if I offered Corey instead of Gordon if that would make him feel better but for me Fournette/Davis is to much so I'm walking.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
This is probably the way to go. Plus, if that team is looking to be out of the playoffs at the deadline i can just try to get mccoy back cheaper
Let's talk Joe Mixon dynasty value. Starting RBs are generally desirable, but he plays for a team with an average QB, a deteriorating O-line, and a retread coach who is obsessed with rbbc.
In the dynasty trades thread, it was suggested that he would have value of "Keenan Allen plus" if he opens the season strong. Can someone sell me on Mixon as a buy rather than a sell?
In the dynasty trades thread, it was suggested that he would have value of "Keenan Allen plus" if he opens the season strong. Can someone sell me on Mixon as a buy rather than a sell?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
My quote, but I'm not calling Mixon a buy. For whatever reason, the community has given him a complete mulligan. I still love his upside, but I am putting some of his 2017 struggles on him.
The argument for hope is that situations change fast in the NFL. Minny was a bad situation this time last year. Jacksonville went from bad to good on the Oline in one off-season. The Dolphins did it over the span of a few weeks in season.
Mixon is one of the youngest players in the league, and is still developing. His physical profile and receiving ability are Barkley-esque. I'd love to target him at a discount, but it just isn't there.
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Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
my concern is they are bringing Marvin back, a new coach could have brought him to life, just look at what that did for Gurley from 16 to 17. I still think he has potential but concern for 18 is a continued split with Gio
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
by the way funny you bring up Mixon in this discussion, considering doing a deal with the key pieces being Mixon + (a decent amount) for the 1.1. I may wind up overpaying but I'll post it here if we agree if it helps at all in assessing his value
I went into great detail on my Mixon toughts a few weeks ago in this thread so I'll try for some brevity this time.
I felt Mixon was the most talented RB in this draft, the closest thing to the coveted Bell/DJ type.
Now my strategy this season in re-draft, especially in drafts that were before pre-season games, was to aggressively pursue the rookie RB's who I felt were undervalued. I was heavily targetting Fournette, Cook and CMC in the 3rd-5th round range, Hunt in the 8-10 range. Kamara I liked more than Hunt but knew I could get him later, and he was my second most drafted player but I knew I could get him in the 10-12 range. Then I'd take shots on Foreman and Cohen in the mid rounds.
I had two rookie RB's I had no interest in drafting relative to their ADP. Perine was one. Mixon, the guy I thought was the most talented RB in this draft, was the other.
So much for brevity, lol. That is my long winded way of saying as much as I liked Mixon talent I was very down his current situation. The Bengals OL and 3 headed RBBC just seemed like a bad situation.
Now some things have changed.
Lazor getting the OC job was step one. Mixon's use improved when he took over but Lazor was still not running his offense. He's not from the Marvin, Hue, Jay coaching tree so some hope here is that his system is not so RBBC like. Before Mixon got concussed he had started to take on more of a feature back role. He had 4 full games after Hill was done playing before he got concussed and in those 4 games he out touched Gio 72 to 17.
The other big change was of course Hill getting injured and turning this from a 3 headed RBBC to a two headed one. And granted Hill was not getting heavy usage but I had comped it to the Saints situation when they got rid of AP, who also was not getting a ton of use. It just helped the two remaining RB's on those teams get into more of a rhythm.
So those things change and Mixon to me looked great once he started getting a bigger workload and I for sure like his outlook next season and think he's a great buy low if Mixon owner is disgruntled.
I would add Gio looked great and will continue to limit Mixon's upside a bit, as he should. Would be bad coaching IMO to not utilize. But here again I'd point to the usage after they got rid of Hill, before Mixon started taking on some injuries. And lastly even with Gio in two it likely means Mixon won't get that kind of Bell/DJ usage, especially in passing game but it's not a big deal. He's super young, maybe he's more of a RB2 next few years, no sweat. His day will come.
I felt Mixon was the most talented RB in this draft, the closest thing to the coveted Bell/DJ type.
Now my strategy this season in re-draft, especially in drafts that were before pre-season games, was to aggressively pursue the rookie RB's who I felt were undervalued. I was heavily targetting Fournette, Cook and CMC in the 3rd-5th round range, Hunt in the 8-10 range. Kamara I liked more than Hunt but knew I could get him later, and he was my second most drafted player but I knew I could get him in the 10-12 range. Then I'd take shots on Foreman and Cohen in the mid rounds.
I had two rookie RB's I had no interest in drafting relative to their ADP. Perine was one. Mixon, the guy I thought was the most talented RB in this draft, was the other.
So much for brevity, lol. That is my long winded way of saying as much as I liked Mixon talent I was very down his current situation. The Bengals OL and 3 headed RBBC just seemed like a bad situation.
Now some things have changed.
Lazor getting the OC job was step one. Mixon's use improved when he took over but Lazor was still not running his offense. He's not from the Marvin, Hue, Jay coaching tree so some hope here is that his system is not so RBBC like. Before Mixon got concussed he had started to take on more of a feature back role. He had 4 full games after Hill was done playing before he got concussed and in those 4 games he out touched Gio 72 to 17.
The other big change was of course Hill getting injured and turning this from a 3 headed RBBC to a two headed one. And granted Hill was not getting heavy usage but I had comped it to the Saints situation when they got rid of AP, who also was not getting a ton of use. It just helped the two remaining RB's on those teams get into more of a rhythm.
So those things change and Mixon to me looked great once he started getting a bigger workload and I for sure like his outlook next season and think he's a great buy low if Mixon owner is disgruntled.
I would add Gio looked great and will continue to limit Mixon's upside a bit, as he should. Would be bad coaching IMO to not utilize. But here again I'd point to the usage after they got rid of Hill, before Mixon started taking on some injuries. And lastly even with Gio in two it likely means Mixon won't get that kind of Bell/DJ usage, especially in passing game but it's not a big deal. He's super young, maybe he's more of a RB2 next few years, no sweat. His day will come.
Not saying he was amazing but 900 total yards for a rookie on a bad offense while not really getting the touches the first 2 weeks of the season and then missing 2-3 games later on because of injury isn't a bad season so that's why his owners (including myself) aren't giving up on him.
I will agree some of his early season struggles were on him but it did look like he improved as it went on. so thinking for 2018 if the Bengals do improve their line plus actually get their offense to do something in all 16 games (they disappeared a lot this year) then I don't think it would be crazy to think he hits 1300 total yards and a good number of TDs
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
I'm not sure if this helps assess value or the extent of my Barkley fever but below is the final deal in FFPC (note I have a fairly deep team with McCaffrey, Ingram, Corey Davis, Baldwin, Ertz, Njoku, 1.7 and other pieces so I'm trying to consolidate a bit.
I gave - Mixon, 1.4, Ebron, 5.3
for
1.1, 2.11
I gave - Mixon, 1.4, Ebron, 5.3
for
1.1, 2.11
Good info and you for sure paid a lot but congrats on what should be at least your second place to own Barkley.
Not sure I could have paid what you did, probably not, but unicorns don't come cheap.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Nuk is the 3rd best WR in the league right now, behind Brown and Beckham. A sizable portion of his targets aren't remotely catch-able. Who in recent memory has done more with less, in terms of QB play and lack of surrounding weapons? In a better situation, he wouldn't need that volume to put up big numbers. He's my dynasty WR 1B.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Since we're talking Mixon value. I offered Mixon and Corey Davis for the 1.01 and was rejected. He wanted a late 1st in addition.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Does anyone here prefer Barkley to Zeke and/or Gurley? Based on some of these deals, I'm wondering why folks aren't just paying a similar price for Zeke or Gurley.
Pwingles
Footballguy
My only preference between the 3 would be whichever one i could get cheapest, if I were buying.
I would put zeke even, or slightly behind barkley because of his other risk factors, and Gurley in front of both assuming the price to get one of them was the same
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Mixon is a hold right now. Most Mixon owners probably paid either a high draft choice and/or other valuable commodities via trade. Given that his first season was a disappointment, I find a scenario where you get full value in return for trading him exceedingly unlikely.
Most owners have some degree of patience and are unlikely to actively seek moving him right now, as they are aware of the reality- a down rookie season, so people are not, after just obtaining him, going to cut their losses and take 65 cents on the dollar for him, knowing full well he has plenty of talent and is likely to see a bigger role next year.
In terms of a draft choice, and this is a ballpark figure, I think pick 1.04-1.05 in a 12 teamer might get a deal done. Picks in the abstract tend to command slightly more than known commodities because most of us love the idea of a shiny new toy.
Pwingles
Footballguy
are you asking what i would need to add to barkley to get gurley? or where i value them in terms of a start up?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I do not, but see Barkley not too far below.
My rankings:
Zeke
Gurley
Bell
DJ
Barkley
Hunt
Kamara
Fournette
To me, RB1-RB4 are very clear.
RB5-RB8- I'm open to shifting the order.
Either way, all 8 of these players are first round picks in both redraft and dynasty for me.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Truthfully if I had Barkley or the 1.01, Im not sure I would add anything. I think it would be cost prohibitive to give up presumably 2 premium assest, 1 of which could turn out to be the type of player gurley is.
But thats me personally.
I think in terms of value alone, I could see someone who is of the opinion theyre one piece away from contending for the ship adding a late 1st, but barkleys perceived value is so high right now, it would look like a decent overpay. I imagine some Gurley owners looking at it as if theyre getting younger gurley 2.0 and a 1st for free
Its so hard to trade for players that most assume are in the same tier, and one owner for whatever reason just has a preference between them, almost always have to overpay
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I couldn't take Barkley over Zeke or Gurley. Both those guys are young and have had top 3 seasons in the NFL. Just a poor risk imo. You hope Barkley does what these two already have. That said, in my main league Zeke is slightly cheaper to acquire than the 1.01. I already have Gurley so cant comment there.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think that's pretty dangerous. Lately people like to omit Trent Richardson from the list of uber prospects when discussing Barkley, but he was absolutely right there with Gurley and Barkley (and McFadden and Bush) as prospects. He had just as much hype as Barkley does. He was just as safe as Barkley is. He was as can't-miss as it gets. Point being that Barkley's bust potential is much greater than zero. And he could not bust, have a good career, and still not come close to expectations. Even setting the bust risk to 0, Gurley is in a perfect situation for his skill set. Barkley is being mocked to CLE, IND, and NYJ right now. I get the Barkley love, but I just don't see the logic in valuing him so closely to a 23 YO MVP candidate in Gurley. (Zeke's DV strike is tricky, so I wouldn't fault anyone for holding that against him.)
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I can't imagine that Gurley or Zeke owners are letting them go at those prices.Concept Coop said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Evans and 1.02? Fournette and Davis? You could be right, but some of these deals are pretty close, I think. I regretfully turned down my Fournette and Diggs for his Gurley, right before the fantasy playoffs.
Pwingles
Footballguy
You're totally right about Barkleys risk. I guess im looking at it thru a lense of a team that would have the 1.01 being most likely a bad team. Obviously there are exceptions factoring in trades and whatnot.Concept Coop said:
But if I were a basement team right now, and rebuilding, I think having Barkley and whatever pieces you would have to add for gurley or zeke has a pretty good chance of helping your team still and you wouldnt have to spend assets to acquire someone like zeke or gurley that would likely net you some more wins but not get you the ship right away.
Basically, if my team is going to be bad either way, id probably just stick with the prospects. Might be persuaded to make a move if i was a contender or close to it
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not sure that bolded was ever offered anywhere - thought it was used as a hypothetical in one post. I could see that getting it done.
I wouldn't move Gurley (or Zeke if I owned him) for Fournette and Davis - but I wasn't very high on Davis from the start.
I've seen some mentions of Davis, 1.05 and 1.10 or Mixon and Davis being offered for the 1.01 - and I was saying I do not see Zeke or Gurley owners selling for that.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That's certainly fair; I agree. I did see OBJ for 1.01, and I know plenty of folks prefer Beckham to the RBs.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Depending on my team I could see trading Gurley or Zeke for OBJ. I could see all three of those players going top 5 in a start-up.
I think the team getting OBJ for the 1.01 also got a late first thrown in as well. Honestly I think deals like that are outliers and not indicative of most leagues.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That actually makes two OBJ for 1.01 (+) trades. The one I saw (discussed on DLF) on was straight up, but I do see jwb's with the extra pick coming his way. They are very likely the exception, as you said. I'm excited to look at the Trade Finder results once Barkley's on a roster, as rookie picks aren't defined.
Think a Barkley/OBJ swap is about even.
You could make a compelling argument for each side.
Thinking in terms of a raw, start up auction- I see both as first round picks, likely in the top 10.
My personal preference would be for OBJ at this moment, but only by a narrow margin.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I would avoid a trade like that. Only good player on your team for three question marks. Stick to stud for stud IMO. Selling the cow for magic beans.
Possibilities are 1) consistent bad choices, 2) bad luck, and 3) not trying. I've seen all 3, sometimes in the same people.
