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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
Not trying to toot my own horn too much, as I've had plenty of misses, but basically he looks like everything I thought he'd be, which is somewhere in the wheelhouse of a Boldin/Demaryius Thomas hybrid. Product of the system? The system doesn't hurt, but he just did 917 receiving yards in 14 games as a 20-21 year old rookie. Those weren't all easy yards either. He made a number of highlight reel plays and even had a KR for a TD.JackReacher said:
I don't see how anyone can look at it and think he's a fluke. There will be highs and lows like with any other player, but he looks to be the real deal. I think people flat out whiffed on their evaluations of him at USC. After his sophomore year he was projected as a first round pick in most mocks. Then suddenly after the next year he's a late 2nd rounder? I'm not sure what that's all about. Maybe it was the injuries or the USC WR factor. I said he was a first round talent and that's where he should've gone.
He's a big talent. Dangerous underneath, with enough RAC/deep ball skills to be a big play threat. I'm excited about the future. If he stays healthy, he can be a top 10 FF WR. I've not seen any overall dynasty rankings to gauge where his market value is or where he ranks compared to other dynasty WRs, but I've got him on a lot of teams. Maybe 5-6 out of my 7 leagues. I'm not selling.
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
So you’d expect top value for Carr despite his season? I mean, realistically isn’t a low first about the top you’d ever expect him to be worth?
ZWK
Footballguy
I'd keep Brady. He's your best quarterback for next year. He outscored Stafford by roughly 20, 40, 50, and 30 fpts over the past 4 years. That adds up (to 140 fpts over 4 years). And it's bigger than the edge that Stafford has given you over a QB2 like Dalton or Manning. Most QB fantasy value comes from the big seasons, not from steady solid low-end QB1s.RamblinIrish said:
New England is confident enough in Brady keeping it up for a little while that they traded away Jimmy. When Brady's run is over there's a decent shot that you'll be in good hands with Garoppolo, and if not then borderline QB1/QB2 value isn't that hard to find.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Like I said, I expect him to bounce back. I think the injury affected him all season.Unless you are talking about a 2 start QB league I could not even bring myself to offer someone Carr for a late one without thinking I was insulting them.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Howard - If you can't get a mid 1st you're better off probably just keeping. Not someone I'm even making offers for as I know I value him less than his owners probably do.
Carr - Maybe a later 2nd (assuming standard 1 QB). And that may be pushing it. (And I like Carr myself but there's no denying how bad he looked this season). I think it'll be highly variable.
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Depends on the leagues. In FFPC format where QB's are easy to find I don't care as much about the longterm unless I think I'm sitting on a stud and I think Stafford is a good fantasy QB but not a stud. A league like that I'd rather try to squeeze another year or two out of Brady. Unless he has slipped more than the little I think he has slipped, I just feel like he's more of a difference maker.
squistion
Footballguy
Since I have limited time to dicker back and forth trying to negotiate a deal, quite often my first offer is my best offer. I might tweak it slightly with a 3rd/4th round pick, a few BB dollars or a lesser player, but generally I don't move much from the initial offer.Hankmoody said:
What is funny is that I have one league that have a few owners, that no matter what I offer, they always counter wanting something more from me. Sometimes it works out for the best. Last year, in late September, in a PPR I offered my 2018 1st for Kenny Golladay. Quickly rejected by the other owner who countered asking for my 2018 1st and 2nd for Kenny G. I rejected and said that my prior offer of the 1st only was my best offer. Never heard back from the owner after that. My 2018 1st turned out to be the 1.04, so I am glad my offer was rejected.
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Cjw_55106
Footballguy
Thanks, this is pretty much were I am. I offered the 1.08, 2.03 and Ware (he owns Hunt) and he rejected without comment or counter.
ZWK
Footballguy
How big an edge do you think that Stafford is going to give you over whoever else you find? Stafford was only scoring 1 point per week more than Ryan Tannehill (2014-16).
I'll take a 2-3 ppg edge from Brady for the next few years, rather than 1 ppg from Stafford, starting a few years from now, if I'm unable to find anyone better than Tannehill.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thanks for doing the research FreeBaGeL.
Doesn't really surprise me. Its very hard to stay on top like that for any player. There are a few who have done it, but the average is two top 12 seasons, which is an even lower threshold than what you are talking about. That average is suppoted by the players who have done that for more than two seasons as well. Just very hard for any RB to sustain that level of performance long.
I still see Johnson catching 70+ in 2018 if he is healthy for most of the 16 possible games. He is that good. How the rest of those numbers shake out relative to the field remains to be seen, but I expect him to be very good again next season regardless of what has happened in the past.
He has as good a chance as any RB to be top 5 in my view. What you have been talking about is applicable to all RB, not just Johnson.
Most have never risen to the performance you are looking at in the first place and never will.
Doesn't really surprise me. Its very hard to stay on top like that for any player. There are a few who have done it, but the average is two top 12 seasons, which is an even lower threshold than what you are talking about. That average is suppoted by the players who have done that for more than two seasons as well. Just very hard for any RB to sustain that level of performance long.
I still see Johnson catching 70+ in 2018 if he is healthy for most of the 16 possible games. He is that good. How the rest of those numbers shake out relative to the field remains to be seen, but I expect him to be very good again next season regardless of what has happened in the past.
He has as good a chance as any RB to be top 5 in my view. What you have been talking about is applicable to all RB, not just Johnson.
Most have never risen to the performance you are looking at in the first place and never will.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While I get what you're saying and for the most part I agree with it, I just want to point out that this is perceived value, not real value.
If Barkley finishes as RB 9 as a rookie and people paid a price higher than that, they do not get what they paid for.
Also there is no guarantee that his value will stay as high as it sounds like it is right now if he struggles as a rookie. It will hurt his value. Look at how quick people are to move on to the next big thing. That will happen to Barkely too when the new car smell wears off, especially if he doesn't have a stellar performance.
The real value is how the player actually performs, and if you can sell high on pick 1.01 and add a less sexy player who performs just as well or better, you profit in a real sense, not just a perceived one.
I do expect Barkley to be very good and its not like I don't want to have him. I just don't want to overpay for him (or any player). Especially right now where I see the RB options being pretty high quality and a lot of depth to them as well.
If Barkley were the only good RB out there, that would be different, but I think there are a lot of good RB right now and just as good as Barley could be.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't like Carr and haven't owned him in any league yet but I think his value is about the same as Darnold and Rosen who I expect to go slightly before that. I think Gruden solidifies his value a little bit.
I would probably take that for Howard. I like him but think I could do better sitting on the picks until spring. Nagy adds some upside but also some risk.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Probably stating the obvious, but if you have noticed this with those particular owners, that they always counter asking for me, then that is when you should low ball them, with the intent of improving your offer later.
Have you noticed if this works both ways? Do they send offers that they will later increase if you ask with a counter proposal?
I understand you don't like the time involved with haggling, but knowing your competition is a huge advantage, so you should try to make that work in your favor.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I wouldn’t think twice about rejecting DJ for the 1.01 and I can’t seem to swing a deal for Barkley cause he’s too expensive for me.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Next few years may be a big leap, as is 2-3 ppg. Brady outscored Stafford by 1.3ppg this year, and got progressively narrower as the season went on.
Brady had a hot start this year, but was surprisingly mediocre after that, and then even worse down the stretch. He had a big weeks 1-3, but from weeks 4-17 he was QB11 in ppg, basically tied with Stafford. The last 5 weeks of the season he was QB24.
The decline may already be underway.
I admit I haven't had a chance to really take a proper look at Barkley yet, but I can't help wondering whether groupthink in the dynasty community and draft twitter has created this momentum where everyone assumes he's the greatest prospect to every grace the planet just based off everyone else saying it. I'm not saying he won't be a great player or isn't worth the 1.01 but the hype for this guy is kind of insane - more than I can recall for guys like Zeke and Gurley who were also regarded as generational type talents. At this point, if he doesn't come in and dominate the league like prime LT or Adrian Peterson, then he's going to be a relative disappointment. And we don't even know landing spot yet! Everyone is assuming he's so transcendent that it doesn't matter, but to take the Zeke and Gurley examples, it absolutely does matter - Zeke walked into maybe the best RB situation in the entire league, while Gurley stunk it up in year 2 with Jeff Fisher.
If I had the 1.01 and I could get some of the hauls I'm seeing for it, I would have a very hard time not selling. There is still a significant amount of risk here and a lot of unknowns at this stage. Remember when Sam Darnold was considered a can't miss, generational franchise QB that teams should actually tank for? Pretty much no one, even those who are pro-Darnold, would say that about him now. I'm just saying that the momentum of media hype is real and kind of insane.
If I had the 1.01 and I could get some of the hauls I'm seeing for it, I would have a very hard time not selling. There is still a significant amount of risk here and a lot of unknowns at this stage. Remember when Sam Darnold was considered a can't miss, generational franchise QB that teams should actually tank for? Pretty much no one, even those who are pro-Darnold, would say that about him now. I'm just saying that the momentum of media hype is real and kind of insane.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
While I do think Barkley is too expensive, I don't think your offer is really a good example of that.
Howard is very valuable in your format. You are offering two older players for two young ones there.
thrifty makes a good point about the picks gaining value going into the spring. This happens every year. So no real reason to move those assets right now for players whos perceived value (if not real value) is just going to decline over time.
Your offer might look better with the fantasy season underway (DJ healthy and performing) than it does right now.
Zyphros
Footballguy
@RushHour that's the whole reason why I do independent evals on my own now. It was literally exhausting buying into hype of certain guys in the past and have them bust on my teams. I simply got sick of it, took my coaching knowledge and put it into my own thoughts about guys. That said, Barkley is the best player I've ever evaluated in the past 6 years I've done it on my own. The previous best would of been Gurley. I applaud anyone who doesn't accept the groupthink and makes their own opinions about a guy, and Barkley to me is as close to can't miss as possible.
Zyphros
Footballguy
It's a fair argument but when a guy says to you "I think most people would take the DJ side" then the false hope begins to rise and then they decline. DJ being out a year certainly puts a stain from a buyers perspective because everyone loves the guy that didn't get hurt and blew up vs the guy who let their season down by getting injured. But if people are putting DJ outside the top5 dynasty RB's they're crazy.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
... why did you need Howard?
thats besides the point, that's not too expensive, actually it just seems like a straight up DJ for Barkley swap.
Love DJ ... but I think most good owners would prefer the upside and future of Barkley over DJ. And Clay isn't enough to add ...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
For me DJ for 1.01 is kind of a push but especially at this time you could do more with the pick than you likely can moving Johnson who people likely want more information about before pulling the trigger on him, such as who the coaches will be. Some may even want to see some good games from him before wanting to invest much into him.
Seems from your comments that you would rather have Barley, thus your offer, yet now you are arguing that Johnson should be worth more than him?
From my perspective where your offer is really off is trying to get Howard for Clay. To me that is huge in your favor given the format. Clay did okay this season when healthy, but he really hasn't been a difference maker since 2013 and doesn't seem likely to return to that level of performance in his career, while Howard should continue to improve and he did show flashes already of how good he can be.
That part of the deal seems way in your favor, and thus the whole deal in your favor, you really shouldn't be surprised it was rejected.
squistion
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
You mean the same Moncrief that averages less than 3 catches and 35 yards a game? I'm shocked someone wouldnt jump all over that.
IMO, Hunt was a good starting offer...depending on roster space, Moncrief might be a negative add.
-OZ-
Footballguy
If that's moncrief's current value I'll need to buy him everywhere else. He's not a top receiver but he's much better than a negative add.
Point really is Hunt should be equal to the pick. The owner of the pick might just not want to trade it.
That doesn't seem like a good deal. I mean, Barkley>DJ and Howard>>>Clay. If you had offered DJ+Howard for 1.01+Clay then that would be more fair.
By FBG stats, Stafford outscored Brady by more than a point per game in the last 8 games.
Waldman has said he likes Chubb more than Barkley out of the gate because he's a more mature runner, but cautions that landing spot will make a difference. Personally, I think part of the reason Barkley is so coveted is his receiving skills and the prevalence of the PPR format. Plus, he's only 20 right now (will turn 21 in Feb). So he's a full 5 years younger than a guy like DJ or Bell.
But like I've been saying, people shouldn't be viewing these trades (and trade offers) in a vacuum. League size, roster size, starting lineup positions, team need, quality of team, and overall depth should all play huge roles in accepting or rejecting a trade. Mixon+1.05+1.10 could be a great trade for a barren team with 3 holes to fill in the starting lineup while it could be a huge negative for a team bursting at the seams with depth, but lacking elite talent at the top.
As for landing spot, assuming he goes in the top 10 (haven't really looked beyond that), the only places that would seem like a red flag to me would be either New York team, with the Giants being the worst, but that could change if they improve the OL in free agency and sign a good OC.
I'd rank them (best to worst):
- SF
- CLE (assuming they sign Cousins OR trade for Alex Smith while drafting a QB)
- IND (need OL badly)
- OAK (assuming Lynch retires or is cut)
- TB (significant drop off from Oakland)
- DEN (assuming CJA is cut... if they find a QB, they jump up a spot)
- NYJ (pretty sure they go QB)
- NYG :X
- CHI (they're in the top 10, but don't see them taking him)
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Current value of the 1.01 is probably around Hunt and a mid 1st. As has been said Moncrief doesn’t add much.
steelers1080
Footballguy
He had his best games after the back injury...
I'm a Carr owner/fan, but I'm not sure that the injury was the cause of his lesser play this year. I definitely think it hurt him a week or 2 though, unless he re-aggravated it without it being announced.
I think the bigger factors were his O-line regressing, WR/RB/TE dropped passes or wrong routes, and the play calling. Not sure why they let Musgrave walk after having such a good season in 2016 with a pretty poor defense.
Also, Gruden is hiring the OC that the Jags fired... Not too optimistic for 2018 right now. Hopeful, but cautious.
-OZ-
Footballguy
If that's true, that either is devaluing Hunt more than I would, or way to much.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
What's the current value of some of the aging TE's like Jimmy Graham,Delanie Walker, Greg Olsen?? If you were rebuilding what would you take pick wise??
I sold Delanie Walker a little before the trade deadline in my one rebuilding team for John brown and 2017 third and fourth rd picks (will be 3.3 and 4.3). Wanted to get a little bit more but was doing a full rebuild so wanted to get whatever I could for my aging guys. If Brown can stay healthy I think he could bring back some decent value.
as far as the others, Olsen is probably the guy with the most value right now but a good FA landing spot for Graham could move his value greatly too so I probably wouldn't be trying to move Graham at the moment. If I had a decent backup TE to take over for either of those guys I'd be pretty happy with a second round pick
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think there's a good chance all 3 guys out produce this value, but I think early 2nd for Jimmy and a mid-to-late 2nd for the other 2 is about market value.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thoughts on the Rams planning to franchise Sammy Watkins? One one hand, he was 4th on the team in targets this year, and the personnel and scheme will be largely unchanged. On the other, it has to speak to plans of an increased role for him. They can't shell out that kind of money and only give him 70 targets, right? Edit: It also suggests that the Rams expect a strong market for Sammy.
How does Norv Turner impact the fantasy value of McCaffrey and Funchess? If Funchess enters the seasons as the WR1, he's going to be a major buy for me. I'll likely make sure that happens before paying much, however.
How does Norv Turner impact the fantasy value of McCaffrey and Funchess? If Funchess enters the seasons as the WR1, he's going to be a major buy for me. I'll likely make sure that happens before paying much, however.
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I just found out this week that he believes the earth is flat which has soured me on him. Maybe I'm jumping to conclusions but I think you have to be stupid to believe that and him being stupid would certainly explain how he's squandered his athletic ability thus far. If that hypothesis is correct, then he's probably not ever going to put his NFL game together. So long story short, I'm probably avoiding him either way unless someone is giving him away for a mid-to-late 2nd. The Rams run a nice offense, though, so I might consider him more strongly in redraft best ball leagues.
I firmly believe that Norv is washed up, so I think he can only hurt everyone on Carolina.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't see Graham as having any more value, and would probably pick Olsen first. Given the Tenn playoff game, I might even pick Graham last. Seems like 2019 2nd is fair for all, hard to get a decent pick this year unless someone is really convinced they need a TE.
Big fan of Funchess as a value play despite his playoff run not working out so well due to injury. I think he almost has to be the WR1 - they spent 1st and 2nd on receivers last year.
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Gawain
Footballguy
Shame, think the dream was for him to go to the Niners, wasn't it? Goff and Watkins didn't look to be on the same page at all.
Woods has 4 years to go and Kupp is on his rookie deal. Austin makes a ton of money. Rams are going to be paying 24 Mil to their 3rd and 4th receivers.
I can't imagine too many people giving up a first right now for a guy who FBG had as the 5th best dynasty receiver coming into the season.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Gave the 1.01
got 1.03, 1.10, ar15, crowder
1.01 gets better and better
got 1.03, 1.10, ar15, crowder
1.01 gets better and better
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
So read some Greg Cosell on Watkins. Guy is the best evaluator out there by far IMO.
Watkins will break the bank in free agency if Rams don't tag him. Rams know that and buy the year to better incorporate him into their offense. We saw how much an offseason together meant for Woods/Kupp & Goff.
Ideally Watkins would land with a stud QB like Jimmy G as his clear #1.
Watkins will break the bank in free agency if Rams don't tag him. Rams know that and buy the year to better incorporate him into their offense. We saw how much an offseason together meant for Woods/Kupp & Goff.
Ideally Watkins would land with a stud QB like Jimmy G as his clear #1.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
What would people take for Garoppolo at this point? I tried to buy him both last offseason and during the season and always balked at taking that little step more to get it done, and now regret it. Is a pick equal to the top rookie QB enough, or is he already a late 1st valuation or more?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The top rookie QBs (outside of Andrew Luck) usually go around 2.06 the earliest in my leagues. If the Garoppolo owner was deep at QB that may get it done, but I suspect it will not. I think your suspicion about it taking a late first is probably correct. I don't think I could pay that even if I needed a QB - and I do think highly of Jimmy. It just doesn't feel right to me.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
2QB: Not even considering dealing as he's still highly undervalued IMO. (Dynasty QB16 per fantasypros rankings)
1QB: Doesn't hurt to try with a 2nd. Definitely not something I'd accept but doesn't hurt to try. What QBs you have to possibly throw in return?
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Have not heard Cosell in a few weeks but I recall him saying that in this tape review something to the extent that Watkins was open, that for whatever reason Goff was just not going to him. Something like that.
Yesterday, and I wish I could recall where I saw it, but I saw a video of a long pass to Woods which was complete for a big gain. Watkins was more wide open then Woods and it would have likely been a bigger gain if he's gone to Watkins but Goff never looked his way. ETA-that play was from the game against Atlanta.
Watkins has been very professional throughout all this, which is not easy to do when bad stats don't help you get a good contract. He said the other day, and not speaking negatively of Goff when he said it, that Goff had built up a trust with some of his other WR's and it was hard for him to come into the picture later, in camp, and earn that trust and comfort but he thought things would improve if he returned next year, which he was open to doing. I think he's correct with his assessment.
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Depending on cost, Watkins is a good buy candidate. Still has an elite skill set, a qb with an upward trajectory, and better health prognosis. As always, cost matters but IF he were in this incoming WR class, I’d rank him above everyone else, making him worth about a mid first to me. My guess is I’m slightly high on my valuation, so I’d look to offer a pick in the 1.08-1.10 window with the realistic expectation of giving a 1.05 or 1.06 pick.
Tick
Footballguy
I sold him for Watkins and Olsen when he got traded. I would still do that if I owned him now.
I offered a late first in a 1QB league and was declined. So yes, the hype is real.
