flapgreen
Footballguy
No Lewis or Blount
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Concept Coop
Footballguy
A lot of confusion in this point (not calling you confused, Oc).
He was a wildcat RB who threw the ball a few times, not a QB. Fellow Gator fans know.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
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Tau837
Footballguy
Using fantasy points at PFR, consider their splits:
Luck:
- Career: 3.3 ppg from rushing/receiving, 16.3 ppg from passing, 19.6 ppg total
- 2015-2017: 3.0 ppg from rushing/receiving, 17.2 ppg from passing, 20.2 ppg total
- Career: 4.5 ppg from rushing/receiving, 14.7 ppg from passing, 19.2 ppg total
- 2015-2017: 3.7 ppg from rushing/receiving, 16.4 ppg from passing, 20.1 ppg total
It is also worth noting that the passing advantage shown above for Luck probably has more to do with volume than anything. Luck has attempted 37.9 passing attempts per game, which is second only to Stafford all time. Wilson has averaged 29.5 passing attempts per game in his career.
Logically, if your contention is correct that he will run less often as he ages, that implies his pass attempts will go up, which further implies that his passing fantasy points will also increase. And the current trend of Seattle blowing up its veteran defense supports the idea that they will likely be passing more often going forward than in most seasons of Wilson's career to date.
Wilson >>> Luck at this point in time.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Agreed. Even if Luck didn't have the health risk he comes with they would be even.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I owned him the last two years. Watched him closely. He isn't a lead back. He's at his best in a pass-spread setting with lots of field to work with and not having to break any tackles.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
The Vikings could have used the McKinnon the 49ers think he is last year.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You make good points. A few things to note though. Wilson's last 3 years rushing PPG are deflated by one year where he ran a lot less in which, kind of to my point he was barely a fantasy QB1. In the 3 seasons where he was actually a good fantasy player his rushing PPG was 5.56.
In the years where Wilson has been a good fantasy player he ran for 849, 553, and 586 yards. There isn't really an overestimating of how much of Wilson's fantasy value comes from rushing. Without his rushing numbers he is Matt Ryan or Kirk Cousins. Not that those are bad players to be putting up similar passing numbers to, but they're not really worth much in fantasy. So if his rushing is the difference between him having the value of Kirk Cousins/Matt Ryan (IE very little) and him having the value he currently does, I would say that's a pretty large difference.
I like Wilson a lot and I agree with your points that there is room to go up with Seattle blowing up the defense (though Seattle has been throwing more often than you're giving them credit for the last two years, Wilson was 7th in the NFL in pass attempts per game last year), but taking the injury out of things when two guys have put up similar elite fantasy seasons I'll take the guy that only has to maintain that to keep it going into his elderly years over the guy that has to reinvent himself a bit to do so. I'd also like to see what a healthy Luck can do with a coach that's not among the worst in the league.
Of course, Luck's health is very much in doubt so the argument is kind of moot to an extent anyway. Additionally even if Luck does come back "healthy" he may be at risk to lose just as much in the rushing category as Wilson likely will by aging in trying to protect his shoulder by running less himself.
Tau837
Footballguy
Sure, but you are also taking the guy who is #2 all time in career attempts per game. That is just as likely to regress due to other factors (team around him, coaching change, health) as Wilson's rushing numbers are to drop off due to age.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Agree. That was part of what I wanted to illustrate with the numbers, that Luck has also had fantasy value from rushing. Career to date, 17% of Luck's career fantasy points have been from rushing, compared to 23% for Wilson. I assume that is a closer gap than many people would expect.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This is a good point. Though part of that is escalated by his rookie year (when he wasn't a fantasy factor) where he set his career high in attempts. Additionally, in their last two complete seasons (where Luck was QB2 and QB4 while Wilson was QB1 and QB11) Luck only had about 60 more attempts than Wilson total.
Regardless, overall it's a fair point and you've put together some sound points in total and I think you've flipped me. Before looking at it closely I was operating under the assumption that Luck >>> Wilson if health were not a concern. You've convinced me that was incorrect and that they were much much much closer than that even without Luck's shoulder issues, so with the shoulder issues factored in I now agree with you that Wilson >>> Luck.
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
What about last year?
Hyde had 84 targets last year. So let’s say McKinnon gets that and we use his career catch rate of 71%. Now let’s be conservative and only give him 185 carries at 3.8 ypc (703 yds) plus 4 tds (extrapolating his 12 games without Cook over 16 games). 71% catch rate at 84 targets is 60 rec. Career yards per catch is 7.1 which gives us 426 yds plus the 3 tds from last year (extrapolated over 16 games again).
Total stat line for PPR: 1129 yds 60 rec 7 TD’s and RB8 by my math, which is coming after being up all night so feel free to correct. That is saying there will be no improvement and no more an expansion of role other than to get 16 more targets and play the role he did without Cook for 4 more games.
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How do people value Robby Anderson right now? Based on production/talent/age he’s probably worth a late first but you have to consider the knucklehead factor....does that push him to say a mid-second type value (although I’m sure many wouldn’t be interested at a much lower price than that)? If you own him he’s probably a hold but I have a tough time deciding how to value him as an owner.
-OZ-
Footballguy
He's a hold for me where I have him.
A mid 2nd seems reasonable where I don't. Somewhere around Auden Tate and Anthony Miller would be right now. WR 7-9 range from this group.
I was really excited for his potential if the Jets got a better QB. So for upside I might still take the risk but I generally try to stay away from boneheads.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think last year lined up perfectly for him. He will have more competition for targets this year (although other than enunwa on track to return They haven’t added anything). Im not on the Robby train at all- im sure there are some owners like me and others who see the value, so it depends on who is holding the mid-late 2nd. I don’t think he’s anywhere near a late first. Plus i don’t think the jets are turning it around quickly (dry guys).
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think if Quincy Enunwa comes back healthy he will be the fantasy play in that offense.
Spike
Footballguy
With the Jets trade Saturday, I have to figure they plan to move to an aerial approach going forward.
Shouldn’t this boost the stock of Enunwa and any other WR or TE drafted this year, assuming he is drafted in the first few rounds?
(Yes, I know they traded this year’s 1st and 2nd in the deal for the third overall pick.)
Shouldn’t this boost the stock of Enunwa and any other WR or TE drafted this year, assuming he is drafted in the first few rounds?
(Yes, I know they traded this year’s 1st and 2nd in the deal for the third overall pick.)
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Same question for me, except what one 1st round pick do you place Allen Robinson's worth in PPR?
kutta
Footballguy
I have 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, and 2.04. I don’t think I’d give up any of the firsts for Robinson. I would consider the 2.01. I’m just not a big believer, and don’t like his landing spot.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I also have a 1.04. I'd have to think about trading it for ARob. Receivers are King in that league, so that makes a huge difference this year. I think I like Sutton better than Robinson but it's close enough to make a swap fair.
JackReacher
Footballguy
1.3 or 1.4 seems about right. I’d even consider 1.2 if I was stacked at RB and needed WR, and didn’t like the landing spots for Guice and others.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I don't know that I'd call taking a quarterback a plan to move to an aerial approach, but that's a minor quibble.
I don't think I'd target enunwa though. It seems like a lot of teams that do what the jets just did end up replacing most or all of their current receivers the next year.
Winston -year 2 added desean Jackson and oj Howard
Mariotta - year 2 added Decker and Corey Davis
Wentz - year 2 added alshon, torrey Smith, mack Hollins, ajayi, pumphrey, Clement
Goff - year 2 added Watkins, woods, kupp, higbee
Mahomes - added Watkins
Trubisky - added some guys who don't seem like they belong in this conversation but gosh they're trying
I'm not saying enunwa and Robbie can't be mainstays in the future I just wouldn't go out of my way to acquire them.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
You wouldnt give pick 11 for RObinson???
If you don't like $20 bills you should still trade a $10 to get one, then just trade the $20 for a couple $10s
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Move all that back about 1-2 picks and this is about how I see it.
Meaning right now in a vacuum I'd put his value at 5 but if I had a major WR need then 4 is something that seems equitable. Depending on how draft goes this could go up 1-2 spots to 3-4 range. I'd add if I got into the 3-4 range or higher I'd probably try and get some other WR's then him, he would not be my first option, but he'd be a veteran WR option I'd feel worth that price range.
Milkman
Footballguy
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Dont play any non ppr so hard to say but figured i giv ur original question a bump. In ppr I am a little surprised to see some saying as high as 1.4 and at least one other saying he wouldn't trade the 1.11 for him. If I own arob (I do) it is going to take at least the 1.6 or better (im in no hurry to move him) to get him from me; if im trying to acquire, probably 1.8 -1.10 range.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Bowles fired the last OC becuase he didn't run enough.Spike said:
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Aaron jones or jamal Williams? Let’s assume they don’t add a back in the first 4 rds. Who do you like better?
foxco
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
I don't know if I can make that assumption. But really, neither excite me much. If out if other options I like, Williams but I'm not looking to trade for him.
I might be interested in ty Montgomery in ppr.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Williams is a better pass protector, was first off the bench when Montgomery got hurt, outcaught Jones 25/262/2 vs 9/22, got 82 rushing attempts to Jones 62 in common games once Montgomery for hurt, got 61 rushing attempts to Jones 11 in their common games after the bye week, and doesn't have a looming suspension
Jones is a more explosive running back and had a higher yards per carry.
Green bay doesn't need explosive. They have Rodgers for explosiveness. They need a guy who can run catch and pass block. The last 8 games of the season, Williams had 163 touches for 746 total yards and 5 touchdowns.
If you had a guy with 326 touches for 1492 total yards and 10 touchdowns and there was a 208lb back who had higher ypc, would it even be a debate who the starter should be?
It's Williams.
Jones is a more explosive running back and had a higher yards per carry.
Green bay doesn't need explosive. They have Rodgers for explosiveness. They need a guy who can run catch and pass block. The last 8 games of the season, Williams had 163 touches for 746 total yards and 5 touchdowns.
If you had a guy with 326 touches for 1492 total yards and 10 touchdowns and there was a 208lb back who had higher ypc, would it even be a debate who the starter should be?
It's Williams.
kutta
Footballguy
Well I said I’d give 2.01, so yeah, maybe I could be convinced of 1.11.ghostguy123 said:You wouldnt give pick 11 for RObinson???
If you don't like $20 bills you should still trade a $10 to get one, then just trade the $20 for a couple $10s
I think he’s overrated, coming off an acl, and I don’t like his spot. Sure, if I knew I could flip him I would, but in a vacuum, it’s going to be right around 2.01 or so where I’d start.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Everyone needs explosive. Williams plodding around in the backfield being devoid of talent is not helpful. You don’t take or keep players in dynasty when their volume is in question week to week because they run like they pooped in their drawers. Williams talent is worse than at least 20 RB’s in this draft and I am not even exaggerating. He is 2018 Rob Kelley. You don’t put blind faith in someone because, well, volume. Sure volume is good, volume is useful but if the player is a below replacement level talent... well, those get replaced. Williams will never, ever see 326 touches as long as the RB’s GB walks into the season with maintain any shread of health.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don’t own either but in the games where I saw Williams he didn’t look like Rob Kelly at all. He had more explosion and had a few big runs and catches.
I have no idea who GB prefers - but I don’t think it’s obvious that one is far superior.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Athletically, it’s not even a question. That’s why they do the combine every year. You can only survive on bravado for so long in the NFL. Jamaal Williams is, athletically, a far below average RB. I think I compared him to Alfred Blue last year. Sure he does the little things that a coach would want to keep him around for thinking that is superior to talent but it isnt and never triumphs for long. I would advocate Jones over him but I also wouldn’t be overpaying for Jones. This draft class is robust with RB talent. I do find little ironies on this board though. It feels like the same voices that will advocate Jones or McKinnon being too small will be the first to jump for a defense of a plodder like Williams even though his BMI is 28th percentile and does not have great representation for success. It’s like defending an outlier of an outlier and then thinking he’s going to have top 10 potential for 2018.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
I love this. Volume gets replaced for dynamic every time. The time to value volume is after the season starts and volume is predictable or becomes predictable as injuries/cuts/trades happen. Coaches are always looking to upgrade talent. Even if they have to give the volume to a JAG for a year or two, eventually they are going to settle on someone else. If nothing else that rookie contract will run out and he'll no longer be cheap and they move on to the next JAG.
If Jones is truly the better player he'll get a shot - assuming they don't bring someone else in. Even if they have to wait out a suspension, he'll get the chance at some point. I'm not sure he's as bad as you're suggesting, but I do think Jones is going to get a big look before Williams does.
I'd still trade him for a 1st so hard...
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JackReacher
Footballguy
And GB still drafted Williams before Jones. There is no right answer to this debate. Like last year, injuries will drive the value of either.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Fantasy players always think higher ypc equals more talent. It is more complicated than that. Would he be a true do everything feature back? A lead back in a committee? A change of pace back? A third down back? Jones did nothing in the receiving game, and he's not really a great pass protector, so he's not a third down back or feature back.
You can hold out hope that Jones is the lead back in a committee, with Williams as a third down or change of pace option, but that's kind of the best case for Jones just based on his skill set until or unless he develops skills in the passing game.
And jones would have to earn lead duties because he ran better, because his other contributions were not as good. Lots of teams have a feature back and a guy who has a higher ypc. That guy is called the change of pace. That's literally the definition - a guy who can provide a spark to the offense
And that's how he packers used them. To be fair, both of them got injuries at different times. In the games they both played, Williams got significantly more carries, especially in the second half of the season when he was presumably healthy.
Maybe that changes this year, but Jones is already facing a suspension after pleading guilty to driving with weed in his system.
So Jones has an uphill climb to winning the lead job. He had two very good games in a limited sample size and then got hurt. In the second half of the season, when they both played, green bay gave Williams 61 rush attempts to Jones 11. Maybe that's because Jones was hurt, but Jones got his opportunities while Williams was hurt, and Williams played more in their common games.
The path most Jones owners seem to be hoping for is that the packers realize that Jones is good and Williams just sucks. But if they really feel that way, then they've almost got to take someone in the draft, because Jones needs to improve in multiple areas, and pass protection is such a high priority.
That said, I don't think Williams is an elite talent, and I packaged him and dede for 1.8 recently, which I'd never do if i was certain green bay would never replace him. I just think that everything clearly points to Williams as the lead guy until it unless they bring in someone else.
I think GB is very happy with the duo and not looking to make a significant addition but I don't view Williams as clearly the lead guy myself so much as 1A to Jones 1B and these roles are not set in stone.
Had this discussion earlier. I'd not be trying to pay much for any one of them but if I had roster room for both and could obtain both for something like a very late first I think that's a good deal. Individually I'd put their values in the mid second round range. Give or take on all these depending on how much you need RB.
Had this discussion earlier. I'd not be trying to pay much for any one of them but if I had roster room for both and could obtain both for something like a very late first I think that's a good deal. Individually I'd put their values in the mid second round range. Give or take on all these depending on how much you need RB.
Milkman
Footballguy
This draft class is not great. I've got 3 elite prospects I'd rather have than Robinson. I guess one could be there but if he's a 1st round pick which i think he could be he's likely gone by 1.11. I am a big Trubisky fan and I like Allen Robinson. The only concern for me, and it's a significant one, is that knee. I'd rather take a chance there with Robinson than hopea prospect i don't like gets forced into a ton of touches.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
It's not great and I absolutely would take Robinson will before the 11, but there's going to be some decent players available at that pick.
Just using the current votes in the pool, the 11 is probably Moore, Kirk or Washington. Clearly each is below Robinson but I'd bet two of these guys are pretty decent, wr3 types.
There aren't many drafts where the 11th pick is equal to a top 20 youngish receiver.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I'd take Jones personally. Cheaper and more upside IMO.
I don't see comfortable enough with the fantasy longevity of Williams to give much at all. Just a guy IMO that could be replaced any game by a guy of greater talent. Just view WIlliams as a ok at all, good at nothing type. Nothing wrong with that at all (why Pack may feel more comfortable with him), I just don't see long term fantasy upside.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
It think both are pretty poor but the packers have a lot of holes due to many years of mismanagement. So they may have value for one year. That's about the ceiling.
Milkman
Footballguy
Barkley's one. I can't name the other two. I wish my rookie drafts were sooner. I would take either of them at 1.02 without thinking twice.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Aaron Jones
83 carries: 1 15+ yd run every 10.3 carries
Jamaal Williams
153 carries: 1 15+ yd run every 153 carries
Williams helped a lot of teams out last year. I understand his volume was substantial and he seems to be a good pass catcher/passing down back. You should be cashing in what you can. I know that Aaron Jones was impressive when given the chance and has electric metrics to back up the idea that he could be a very good back. The idea that an NFL franchise can not also come to this same conclusion is a little silly BUT they both could end up with equal zero sum value if GB takes one of the 4 RB’s I believe to be close to sure things at this point.
83 carries: 1 15+ yd run every 10.3 carries
Jamaal Williams
153 carries: 1 15+ yd run every 153 carries
Williams helped a lot of teams out last year. I understand his volume was substantial and he seems to be a good pass catcher/passing down back. You should be cashing in what you can. I know that Aaron Jones was impressive when given the chance and has electric metrics to back up the idea that he could be a very good back. The idea that an NFL franchise can not also come to this same conclusion is a little silly BUT they both could end up with equal zero sum value if GB takes one of the 4 RB’s I believe to be close to sure things at this point.
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