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Miller is a former HS track star and certainly not slow. Most of his work in college came on the outside. He can play the slot, but he’s not just a slot guy - he makes plays through contact and wins deep. He’s not tall, but has a very good catch radius. Breakout age is a legitimate concern, but injury played a sizable role in that.
4.55 is slow for a 5'11" WR
Every report but PP says “4.46 - 4.52”. That’s not slow and I’d say he at plays that fast.
Interesting. I did some googling and it appears he ran a 4.48... at his pro day. We all know how accurate pro day 40's are*. I think if he'd ran at the combine that 4.55 would be pretty spot on.
It's not that big of a deal - sorry, I didn't intend to drag it out. Combine stats don't have much, if any, correlation to WR performance anyway. Being a slow-ish, small-ish WR just makes his hype all the more peculiar to me. He seems like a guy with WR3 upside to me. That certainly has utility in FF, but I like a higher ceiling when throwing early second round darts. Especially given his murky FF situation.
Amen. The Miller hype boys are going to come after you.
In the Guice thread I cited Gurley and Cook as examples contrary to this thinking. And Guice will have more recovery time than both of them before next season starts. I understand dropping him if you're looking for immediate production, but dynasty is long-term. If he was the more talented prospect going into this season, won't he still be more talented next season and beyond?
This is where I am, too. I've got nothing against him. I just don't see a lot to get excited about. Moore is the only guy I am excited about in this class of WR. The rest are just darts to me (which is why I was surprised to see them going for more than more proven options in the startup). I'll be happy to take Gallup or Miller in the early 2nd if I have a pick there and can't sell it, but I'm not trading up for them.
Gurley tore his ACL November of 2014 and was second team All-Pro in 2015, running for over 1100 yards and 10 TDs in 13 games.Plus Peterson and Jamaal Charles and he's got almost a 2 month head start on them. We've not seen Cook play yet but as it relates to a value discussion he's a top 15 pick in most redrafts and again Guice has about a 2 month head start on him.
Yes...............assuming he does fully heal, and assuming he works his mother loving tail off. I do not auto assume those things.Amused to Death said:
Give me Chubb over him and the others (assuming he’s available. If not, I like the pick.
He was already neck-and-neck with Chubb for me, so the injury tips the scales. But I'd still take him over Michel and Rojo.
While Landry is sub-par in a lot of areas (YPR, First down %, TD %) he's also elite in some areas (contested catches) and extremely fortunate in others (sheer number of targets in Miami). People only like Landry because of the prevalence of PPR which is a volume based scoring system (targets/catches) rather than production based (TD/yards/first downs). If these were the 0PPR days, Landry would be a meh WR2 option generating very little conversation. The point being that volume is key, so... (1) it's unlikely Miller will be as good of a slot receiver as Landry and (2) even if he was, it's extremely unlikely he'll be as fortunate to get the volume Landry did, so his fantasy production will almost certainly be significantly less than Landry's even if he's just as good of an NFL player. So it is feasible for you to be correct that he's a rich man's Landry (I still doubt it) in real life, but he'd be a poor man's Landry for fantasy purposes. Because, let's face it, Allen Robinson is much better than Parker and Burton/Shaheen are better than JT/Sims/Fasano. There's just no way Miller is getting 160+ targets within the span of his rookie contract unless ARob has totally lost it Chuck Knoblauch style.
Landry was injured during the combine and drastically improved his numbers at his pro-day.
Haha, we just talked about my feelings on pro day times. As a long time fantasy player, I know you know the trend in pro day 40 times. It's no secret.
I agree with statement 2. Statement 1 is due to the guy showing some pretty exceptional catching ability in camp. He's made a lot of 1 handed and difficult catches. He reminds me a lot of Cris Carter with his ability to catch anything thrown at him.EBF said:
What's your reason for saying this? There are some similarities - elite production vs. low level of competition, projecting as slot receivers in the NFL, on offenses that look mediocre going into the season. But I don't view them as similar players. Kupp was always betting on technician and tape, ability to get open. Miller I think you're betting on playmaking, he is not the route runner or consistent hands player Kupp is. Kupp there were a lot of questions whether he could transition outside based on his size even though he isn't fast enough to do that, and Miller there were a lot of questions whether he should focus more on inside based on his size even though a lot of his Memphis success was downfield.cloppbeast said:
That first offer is horrible. I probably wouldn’t even do that if you took Barkley out of the deal.
Kupp hype? He was a third round pick in rookie drafts.cloppbeast said:
Yea, that's along the lines of what I was thinking when I read that post.
My bad. I was thinking CookS, not Cook.
One of the biggest engines of Miller's hype train, is his hands. Not just their size but, yes, how he uses them. Haha. The drum beat of how he has been plucking everything thrown his way has been steady. The fact that they've *already* annointed him as a starter is a big deal. They moved up to get him as well.
Yea, there's two facets of hands, making tough catches and reliability. I have definitely read yes on the former and no on the latter for Miller. If anything Kupp acted the same way as an actual NFL player last year, made tough catches but missed some easy ones.
Don't mean to imply bad for a rookie. My implication was that Kupp was elite for a rookie which set him apart, and one of the reasons he had hype. Miller does not have hype for route running but for all the reasons you mentioned, like competitiveness.
By stats do you mean projections? They can be a fun exercise at times when you catch someone projecting 4000 yards for receivers and only 3000 yards for the QB, but generally speaking projections are a waste of time in a situation with too many moving parts. If you can find a stable offense with many of the same pieces coming back they can make sense. But we've got a new offensive scheme, three new starting WRs, a new starting TE, and a 2nd year QB. No projection is going to be worth the e-ink it is written on.
Since one of your arguments is that ARob as WR1 there will prevent production by Miller, I’d like to see tangible stats on how a WR does year 1 after an ACL tear AND on a new team.
I'd like to see that, too... but I think even you realize how disingenuous your request is, as both of your qualifiers are relatively rare. But honestly do you really question that ARob is the WR1 there?
In a startup, I have saquan on par with those guys. I wouldnt fault anyone for going with the youth and ceiling in that spot. Are we assuming the top 2 are Gurley and OBJ?
I would take Barkley over Bell or DJ. It's certainly reasonable to prefer the vets, but I'm sold on the kid.
Maybe I've missed something, but he's the starting SLOT receiver... i.e. the WR3. He's still behind WR2 Taylor Gabriel on the depth chart who couldn't beat out Sanu for the WR2 gig in Atlanta. So let's keep things in perspective. I honestly don't even know who he was competing against for the slot role. Kevin White is not a slot receiver. Maybe he was competing with Bellamy? Not exactly stiff competition.
